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Archives for December 2021

Braves Considered Anthony Rizzo Last Month

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The Braves “explored” the possibility of signing free agent first baseman Anthony Rizzo in November, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.  This could have potentially just been standard offseason procedure on the Braves’ part, since as Rosenthal notes, the club will naturally have backup plans in mind should Freddie Freeman sign elsewhere.

Along those same lines, Atlanta has also been linked to the Matt Olson trade market, as Olson (projected to earn $12MM in his second trip through the arbitration process) stands out as a prime trade chip for an Athletics team that is looking to cut costs.  It is probably safe to assume that the Braves have looked at other first base options besides just Rizzo and Olson as they prepare for a post-Freeman world, though Rosenthal observes that “most of the industry still expects Freeman to stay with the Braves.”

Still, at least one rival executive is surprised that Freeman is still available, describing it as a “slap in the face” to Freeman that the Braves haven’t already worked out a new contract with the longtime face of the franchise.  The most recent reports suggested that the Braves were hesitant about giving Freeman a sixth guaranteed year, and Freeman wanted something closer to a $200MM deal — or at least, perhaps closer to $200MM than the $135MM (over five years) deal that Atlanta offered at some point during negotiations between the two sides.

Rizzo presents an interesting first base alternative, as Rizzo is available for much less than Freeman’s asking price, and can be signed for just money, whereas Atlanta would surely have to send Oakland quite the package of young talent to work out a trade.  MLBTR projected Rizzo for a three-year, $45MM pact, while ranking the 32-year-old in 21st place on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.

Of course, the obvious reason for that lower price tag is that while Freeman and Olson are still producing at All-Star levels, Rizzo’s bat has been more modestly productive (109 wRC+) since the start of the 2020 season.  Over his last 819 plate appearances, Rizzo has hit .240/.343/.432 with 33 home runs for the Cubs and Yankees.  Rizzo’s hard-contact numbers have also been in serious decline, while his 9% walk rate from 2021 was his lowest over a full season.  His first base glovework also took a big dip in the eyes of the UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved metrics, even if the Outs Above Average metric gave him a +6 (his best OAA score since 2017).

The universal DH would help quell any concerns about Rizzo’s defense, and his left-handed bat would help replace Freeman to some extent within a heavily right-handed Braves lineup.  Rizzo is also still one of the better contact hitters in the league, which would help an Atlanta reduce a team strikeout rate that ranked 22nd out of 30 clubs in 2021.

Brewers Sign Abraham Almonte To Minor League Deal

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Catching up on a minor league signing that flew under our radar back in October, the Brewers signed outfielder Abraham Almonte to a minors deal.  (Hat tip to Brewerfan.net’s Jim Goulart.)  Almonte will receive an invitation to the Brewers’ big league Spring Training camp.

Almonte opted for free agency rather than accept an outright assignment off the Braves’ roster in September.  It was the second time Almonte had been outrighted off the Braves’ 40-man roster last season, as he was previously sent to the alternate training site at the end of Spring Training before his contract was selected to the 26-man roster in May.

The 32-year-old Almonte ended up receiving quite a bit of playing time with Atlanta, and likely more than the Braves anticipated, except Marcell Ozuna’s administrative leave and then Ronald Acuna Jr’s season-ending ACL tear created some major vacancies in the team’s outfield.  However, the front office responded with a now-legendary flurry of transactions that brought Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, and Adam Duvall to the club in a series of trades, helping pave the way for Atlanta to eventually win the World Series.

These new faces resulted in fewer at-bats for Almonte, and ultimately turned him back into an expendable piece.  Almonte hit a respectable .216/.331/.399 (97 wRC+) over 175 plate appearances, hitting five home runs and mostly playing left field.  Much of the offensive damage came from the left side of the plate, as the switch-hitting Almonte batted .237/.359/.449 in 142 PA against right-handed pitching.  While Almonte’s performance was unspectacular, he did step up to fill a role during a time of need for the Braves, and he wound up with a World Series ring for his efforts.

Almonte has played for six different teams over parts of the last nine MLB seasons, hitting .234/.302/.374 in 1326 career PA.  He’ll now provide the Brewers with a depth option heading into Spring Training, and may likely again only be an option for Milwaukee’s active roster in the event of an injury or two.  Almonte joins David Dahl and Jonathan Davis as experienced outfield veterans in the Brewers’ camp on minor league deals.

Giants Sign Jon Duplantier To Minors Deal

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The Giants have signed right-handers Jon Duplantier and Gray Fenter to a minor league contracts, per MLB.com.

There is, of course a transactions freeze for members of the Players’ Union, but that does not preclude clubs from offering minor league contracts. They cannot, however, incentivize those contracts with offers to spring training or give 40-man roster spots. When the lockout ends, Duplantier is likely to receive an invitation to spring workouts with the Giants.

Duplantier was once a top prospect in the Diamondbacks organizations. The bespectacled 27-year-old had a solid debut in 2019 for Arizona, appearing 15 times (3 starts) and tossing 36 2/3 innings with a 4.42 ERA/3.95 FIP. He has struggled to stay healthy since then, logging just 21 combined innings in Triple-A and the Majors in the two seasons.

Fenter, 25, has yet to make his Major League debut. The right-hander was drated in the seventh round by the Orioles in the 2015 draft. He pitched last season for Bowie in Double-A, pitching o a 5.47 ERA in 77 1/3 innings over 21 appearances (13 starts).

The Status Of The Corner Outfield Market

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Free agent outfielder Kyle Schwarber is said to be asking for a three-year, $60MM contract, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The Marlins were exploring contracts with both Schwarber and Nick Castellanos before the lockout, ultimately coming to a four-year, $53MM agreement with Avisail Garcia instead. Miami also offered Starling Marte a four-year, $60MM offer before he signed with the Mets, notes Jackson.

The market for Schwarber remains robust, however, with many teams throughout the league in need of corner outfield help. The Red Sox – his most recent club – may be a less clean fit for Schwarber after re-acquiring Jackie Bradley Jr. and making the lineup that much more left-leaning, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey isn’t as sure that Schwarber’s being a left-handed hitter really represents a problem.

Beyond Schwarber and Castellanos, there remain a plethora of free agents capable of stationing in an outfield corner. Kris Bryant is the biggest name of the bunch, though his strongest suitors are likely to at least appreciate his glovework at the hot corner. World Series highlight generators Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, and Eddie Rosario remain available. Michael Conforto is the other big name still out there, though he has a qualifying offer attached, which may affect his market.

Brett Gardner, Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham, Brian Goodwin, Alex Dickerson, and Corey Dickerson are some of the more attractive options out there with recent starting experience. In terms of specialists, Ender Inciarte, Roman Quinn, Kevin Pillar, and Jake Marisnick may fit the bill. There are also a fair number of multi-positional utility men out there, such as Niko Goodrum, Josh Harrison, Marwin Gonzalez, Danny Santana, and Brad Miller.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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Bryce Harper gave the Phillies exactly the type of season they hoped for when they signed him to the team’s first $300MM+ deal. Unfortunately, he couldn’t pitch the ninth inning (or the eighth inning), and the Phillies fell short of true contention yet again.

Guaranteed Contract

  • Bryce Harper, OF: $263MM through 2031
  • Zack Wheeler, RHP: $74MM through 2024
  • J.T. Realmuto, C: $95.5MM through 2025
  • Jean Segura, 2B:$15.485MM through 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $17MM club option for 2023)
  • Didi Gregorius, SS: $15.25MM in 2022
  • Aaron Nola, RHP: $19.75MM in 2022 (includes $4.25MM buyout of $16MM club option for 2023)
  • Kyle Gibson, RHP: $7.6MM in 2022
  • Scott Kingery, IF/OF: $15.5MM through 2023 (includes $1MM buyout of $13MM team option for 2024)
  • 2022 commitments: $130.7MM
  • Total long-term commitments: $506MM

Projected Salaries For Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

The Phillies did it: they finished with a better than .500 record. The Bryce Harper era began on the heels of an 80-82 season in 2018, but before the ink was dry, a new era was supposed to have begun in Philadelphia. In the third season of the Harper era, the Phillies finally reversed that record, finished 82-80 and in second place, their first winning season since 2011. It only took three years and an MVP season out of Harper to get them there.

And while it’s nice to be a winning team – well-deserving of a pat on the back – the Phillies fell short of true contention. Instead, Harper watched from home as a division rival won the World Series for the second time in the three years. That has to smart.

Still, there’s no revelation coming to Philadelphia. In terms of strategy, it’s likely to be the same game script for the Phillies moving forward, though they’ll shuffle the cards and hope for a different result. President of Baseball Ops Dave Dombrowski is a fairly well-known commodity throughout the league, so if there’s a wrinkle coming in Philly’s team-building strategy, it might have to come from GM Sam Fuld.

The former outfielder has been with the Phillies for years, but his ascension to Dombrowski’s top lieutenant is less than a year old. As Grima Wormtongue to Dombrowski’s King Théoden, Fuld’s analytical approach should have taken root by now, but the organizational philosophy still seems relatively straight-forward: acquire players to help this team win today.

Looking back to Philly’s deadline moves, dealing five years of control over former top prospect Spencer Howard for a year and a half of Kyle Gibson is an old-school deadline add, though the inclusion of 23-year-old Hans Crouse hints at more nuanced thinking. That said, Crouse made two starts in the Majors after his arrival, so the Phils clearly see him as an option for innings in 2022.

The focus of the front office is putting a winning team on the field ASAP, and in this way, the Phillies are a breath of fresh air in an era popularized by “cute” front offices, constantly balancing short-term value with long-term flexibility. The Phillies may seem to be working with blunter instruments at times, but what sets the apart as an organization right now is that they don’t mind if everyone knows how badly they want to win.

In the dugout, there aren’t nearly as many tea leaves to read. Manager Joe Girardi needs to win baseball games. With whatever 26-and-40-man roster he has at his disposal come opening day, he needs to win games.

Since Charlie Manuel’s departure midway through the 2013 season, managers haven’t stayed overlong in Philadelphia. Each of Ryne Sandberg (278 games, .428 W-L%), Pete Mackanin (412 games, .422 W-L%), or newly-crowned NL Manager of the Year Gabe Kapler (324 games, .497 W-L%) lost their caps in relatively short order. Girardi (222 games, .495 W-L%) may be nearing a tipping point as well.

Girardi isn’t all that close to eclipsing his predecessors’ raw totals in terms of games managed, but if Girardi can make it through 2022, he’ll be the first to last three full seasons since Manuel. Getting sacked before the end of next season is hardly a fait accompli for Girardi, though his disappointing tenure has coincided with a green-lit era of full-go contention for the front office. Needless to say, expectations are high. Don’t be surprised to see Girardi as a high draft pick in your office’s first manager fired pool.

So what do Dombrowski and Fuld need to put Girardi in position to keep his job? The roster is tough to analyze, because in some regards, 2021 went exactly as planned. Harper won his second MVP award after slashing .309/.429/.615 with a league-leading 42 doubles, 35 home runs, 101 runs scored, and a robust 170 wRC+. Zack Wheeler led the Majors with 213 1/3 innings pitched, he was second among hurlers with 7.3 fWAR, and his 2.78 ERA/2.59 FIP were among the best marks in the game. He faced more batters than any other pitcher in the NL, and he struck out more of them (247) than any other pitcher in the NL. He finished second in voting for NL Cy Young.

If baseball were a two-man game, the Phillies might be the champs. Unfortunately, Harper and Wheeler’s outlandish success in 2021 is as much a cause for skepticism as it is optimism. After all, even with those stellar campaigns, the Phillies barely broke an even record. Harper and Wheeler should continue to be good, but it’s not fair to expect MVP and Cy Young seasons every year. That said, the duo forms a pretty solid foundation.

You can add J.T. Realmuto and Aaron Nola to that solid core. Nola tossed 180 innings, and though his bottom-line run-prevention numbers were sub-optimal (4.63 ERA), his 3.37 FIP, 29.8 percent strikeout rate, and 5.2 percent walk rate fall in line with career expectations and suggest Nola continues to be a solid front-of-the-rotation arm.

In the first year of his new five-year contract, Realmuto posted 3.5 rWAR and played his role as Harper’s running mate to perfection. He was a little nicked-up down the stretch, forcing a tad more playing time for Andrew Knapp and Rafael Marchan, but he still managed to play in 134 games and step to the plate 537 times. The catchers’ room already looks a little different with Garrett Stubbs and Donny Sands joining Realmuto and Marchan, but the bottom line here is that so long as Realmuto stays healthy, the Phillies ought to be a top-10 team in cacher fWAR again (they were 8th by fWAR in 2021).

At the risk of turning this into a bit of a ho-down, let’s keep two-stepping through the roster, where Rhys Hoskins and Kyle Gibson appear next. Hoskins and Gibson aren’t nearly the talents of the names above, but they ought to be solid contributors to a contending team.

Hoskins’ footspeed and defensive ability make him a limited player, but if he’s healthy, his bat belongs in the middle of the order. He is a career 122 wRC+ bat coming off a .247/.334/.530 batting line across 443 plate appearances. His peripherals are remarkably steady, even if his walk rate did fall a touch to a career-low 10.6% in 2021. Hoskins should plan to inch that number even a tad closer to his 14.3% career walk rate and let his power do the rest. As a designated hitter, he’s a grand option, but even wearing his first baseman’s glove, Hoskins figured to continue to be a 2-2.5 fWAR player. In brief, there’s nothing wrong with Hoskins’ roster spot.

If Hoskins is a bronze level bat, then Gibson is more-or-less the rotation equivalent. Where Hoskins brings power to the plate, Gibson’s value proposition is an uncanny ability to keep the ball on the ground. His 51.7% groundball rate in 2021 was right near his career average of 51.5% – well above the 41.2% league average mark. Keeping the ball on the ground helps Gibson keep the ball in the yard, which Gibson accomplished at rates he hadn’t hit since his late-twenties (0.84 HR/9, 11.1% HR/FB). Gibson’s 3.0 fWAR was the best mark of his career, and his 3.71 ERA/3.87 FIP were close.

Beyond worm killing, Gibson’s calling card has been his reliability. A starter that takes the ball every five turns will start about 20% of his team’s games, and Gibson’s never started less than 15% of his. He’s a textbook first division number four starter, even entering his age-34 season.

One problem in team-building, of course, is asking players to move up a rung. If Gibson is your best starter, as he was with the Rangers last year, that’s not going to be a very good team. And if he’s your number three, as he was with the Phillies, that’s probably an average-ish team. That’s a simplistic take, as there are many ways to build a winning club, but the point here is a broader one about the depth of recent Phillies’ ballclubs: they don’t have it, and they need it. The six players above get a lot of guff for this Philly club, but they aren’t the problem. If anything, reliance on this sextet is the problem.

Bottom line, the Phillies have holes to fill, and they don’t have the talent pipeline to do so internally. So where to begin? The obvious place is the bullpen, which was a disaster: 27th with 1.1 fWAR, 25th with a 4.60 ERA, 27th with a 4.61 FIP, 21st with 36 saves, and of course, ripped from the headlines, tied with the Nats for the most blown saves in the game with 34. The bullpen was bad. Or rather, the bullpen pitched poorly. But bullpens are fickle, and they’re easier to turn around year-to-year than any other aspect of a roster.

So let’s start with fixing the offense, which should be a more urgent priority for Dombrowski. They need a centerfielder, and after declining McCutchen’s option, they need a left fielder as well. They could, conceivably, take the field on opening day with Alec Bohm and Didi Gregorius on the left side of the infield, but based on their 2021 production alone – ignoring their prospect pedigree and contract, respectively – both should be replaced. That’s half of the starting lineup that could use an upgrade. And yet, the Phillies remained one of the most inactive teams in the game prior to the roster freeze.

Centerfield remains the biggest hole on the Philadelphia roster, no less so after declining their option on Odubel Herrera, who led the team with 104 games in center last year. Herrera rebounded from his long layoff relatively well, posting 1.8 rWAR/1.1 fWAR in 492 plate appearances. He walks at a below-average rate (5.9%) and he puts the ball in play more often than most (15.9% strikeout rate), but that contact had little pop behind it in 2021 as Herrera managed just a .156 ISO. He didn’t embarrass himself out there, but he didn’t add much value for a Philly squad that needs bit of production it can get.

They need to turn centerfield into a better-than average spot, and there aren’t a plethora of options available. Mickey Moniak and Adam Haseley would be penciled in as the starters in center and left, respectively, though the Phils probably want both coming off the bench in 2022. ’

That means scouring the market, where there aren’t lot of true centerfielders available. Starling Marte would be option A in free agency, had he not signed with the rival Mets, and Byron Buxton is the highest-ceiling potential trade target, had he not signed an extension with the Twins. They might check in with Oakland about their available position players, whether that be Ramon Laureano for center or Matt Chapman for third.

As for the bullpen, it already looks a little different than at the end of last season. Hector Neris signed a two-year deal with the Astros, while Corey Knebel has joined the Phillies on a one-year deal. Knebel will be a closing option for Girardi. Jose Alvarado from the left side should also get plenty of high leverage opportunities. They claimed southpaw Ryan Sherriff off waivers from the Rays as well. Sherriff has been seen spotty action for the Cardinals and Rays, but he’s never spent a full season on the Major League roster.

The Phillies have a lot of work to do. They signed Johan Camargo just before the lockout, and while Camargo adds valuable versatility, he hasn’t been productive at the plate since 2018. He can be a part of the bench, but he’s not a solution for the left side of the infield. Nor does he solve the problems in the outfield. Nor will he close games. At this stage, however, it’s important to remember that the addition of Camargo and Knebel represent the beginning of the Phillies’ offseason, not the end of it.

Brewers Invite David Dahl To Spring Training

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Last August, the Brewers signed outfielder David Dahl and assigned him to Triple-A. The former Rockie had been released by the Rangers. Dahl has been brought back to the Brewers on a minor league contract and issued an invitation to Spring Training, per The Athletic’s Will Sammon (via Twitter). The invite was finalized before the transaction freeze went into affect.

Dahl is a bit of a wild card for the Brewers outfield picture next season. The Brewers have lost Avisail Garcia to the Marlins and traded Jackie Bradley Jr. to the Red Sox. Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich will look to recapture some of the prior glory after struggling to match their previous heights in 2021. Hunter Renfroe was added to the picture in the Bradley deal. Tyrone Taylor remains on the roster as an extra outfielder, while infielders such as Keston Hiura, Jace Pederson, and Mike Brosseau could see time in the outfield corners.

Dahl, the tenth overall selection of the 2012 draft, has seen his career derailed by a series of injuries. He’s still just 27-years-old, however. He did not find his way with the Rangers, hitting just .210/.247/.322 over 220 plate appearances. His contributions amounted to a disappointing -1.0 rWAR, leading to his eventual DFA.

Coaching Notes: Giants, Nationals

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Let’s kick off this Saturday morning by checking in on the latest happenings around the game…

  • The Giants are adding Jacob Cruz to manager Gabe Kapler’s coaching staff. Cruz will be an assistant hitting coach for the 2022 season, per Robert Murray of FanSided. Cruz returns to the organization that drafted him in the first round as an outfielder back in 1994. He was an assistant hitting coach with the Brewers for the past two seasons, the Pirates, Cubs, and Diamondbacks before that. Cruz joins assistant hitting coach Pedro Guerrero, hitting coach Justin Viele, and director of hitting Dustin Lind as offensive coaches on Kapler’s staff.
  • Managers and coaches are not included in the hiring freeze brought on by the lockout, so coaching hires should continue to roll in. The Nationals are one organization that figures to be relatively active in filling out their coaching staff and development teams. The Nats have seen a number of their front office staff leave over the past year. They’re also looking to fill the position of minor league hitting coordinator, writes Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post.

Nationals’ Under-The-Radar Deadline Pickup Off To Strong Start In D.C.

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The Nationals had a high-profile teardown this past July. The biggest splash sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers, while other notables like Kyle Schwarber, Yan Gomes and Daniel Hudson were flipped to contenders. Almost buried amidst that flurry was a lower-profile swap announced less than an hour before the deadline: acquiring outfielder Lane Thomas from the Cardinals for veteran starter Jon Lester. While that trade didn’t grab nearly as many headlines as some of the Nats’ other moves, the early returns look very promising.

Thomas has been around for a few seasons, but he never got an extended look with St. Louis. Between 2019-21, he struggled to a .172/.289/.336 line across 142 scattered plate appearances. Generally regarded by prospect evaluators as a fourth outfield type and turning 26 years old in August, it’s easy to understand why the Cardinals’ front office was willing to make him available. Yet Thomas picked up everyday run on a depleted Washington roster down the stretch, putting up quietly excellent numbers.

Over 206 plate appearances in the nation’s capital, the former fifth-round pick posted a .270/.364/.489 slash line, hitting seven home runs and stealing four bases. He spent the bulk of that time in center field, playing well enough to supplant former top prospect Víctor Robles on the depth chart. That offensive output was 27 percentage points above the league average, by measure of wRC+. More encouragingly, it was largely backed up by strong plate discipline and batted ball metrics.

During his end-of-season run, Thomas demonstrated an enviable combination of patience, bat-to-ball skills and power on contact. The right-handed hitter had an extreme willingness to work deep counts, a continuation of a trend he’d shown in St. Louis. Thomas swings far less often than most at pitches both inside and outside the strike zone, a plan of attack that allows him to draw plenty of walks but also puts him at risk for his share of strikeouts. Yet he kept the punch outs manageable during his time in Washington by making contact on a robust 82.4% of his swings (about six percentage points higher than the league mark).

That patience and contact frequency gave Thomas a strong floor from an on-base perspective, but his contact authority was particularly impressive. The Tennessee native had an average exit velocity of 91.7 MPH, more than three ticks harder than the 88.1 MPH league average. According to FanGraphs, he made hard contact on 45.1% of his batted balls with the Nats. The average MLB hitter (excluding pitchers) had a 32.5% hard contact rate in 2021.

That’s a rare set of skills, even in a limited sample of work. Among the 463 players with at least 100 plate appearances, only sixteen managed a hard contact rate north of 40% while striking out in fewer than a quarter of their trips to the dish. Other than Thomas, every player in that group posted a wRC+ of 122 or higher (indicating they were at least 22 percentage points more productive than average offensively). Removing Thomas’ poor 58 plate appearances with the Cardinals early in the season puts him right among that very impressive list of names, both from a results and process perspective.

That’s not to say Thomas is absolutely an elite hitter now, or even that the Cardinals made a mistake in giving him up. Lester was a reliable source of decent innings down the stretch, helping St. Louis to a fantastic second-half run to the postseason. And Thomas needs more than two months of strong performance to cement himself as a core member of the Nats’ future.

His first couple months in a Washington uniform couldn’t have gone much better, though. At the very least, he’s earned an extended opportunity to try to cement himself alongside Juan Soto in the long-term outfield. The Nationals are likely to take a step back in 2022 as they audition younger players like Thomas, but they prioritized near-MLB returns during their deadline sell-off and aren’t about to embark on a rebuild while Soto is under club control. Washington may need some things to fall into place to be realistic contenders in what should be a competitive NL East by 2023. Thomas settling in as a productive regular would be one those pluses, and he’s started off on the right foot with his new club.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

KBO’s SSG Landers Sign Kevin Cron

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The SSG Landers of the Korea Baseball Organization announced an agreement with former big league first baseman Kevin Cron (h/t to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO). The 28-year-old will receive $750K guaranteed with an additional $250K in possible incentives.

It’s the second consecutive season Cron will spend overseas, although it’ll be his first in South Korea. The former Diamondback spent the 2021 campaign with the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, slumping to a .231/.270/.431 line over 137 plate appearances.

Cron, the younger brother of Rockies first baseman C.J. Cron, will try to right the ship in his first crack at KBO pitching. He’s certainly capable of better than he showed with the Carp as the owner of a .319/.405/.651 line across two seasons at Triple-A. Cron has briefly appeared in parts of two major league seasons, combining to log 98 plate appearances over 47 games with Arizona from 2019-20.

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