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Mariners, Angels Among Teams Showing Interest In Kevin Gausman

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The Mariners and Angels are both showing some degree of interest in free-agent righty Kevin Gausman, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Gausman has also been tied to the Blue Jays and the incumbent Giants, who have been active in the rotation market this week.

Either Seattle or Anaheim would make a sensible destination for Gausman, who enjoyed a breakout showing in San Francisco over the past two seasons. Gausman, who signed a $9MM deal with the 2020 Giants and returned after accepting an $18.9MM qualifying offer, pitched to an even 3.00 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate in 251 innings with San Francisco from 2020-21. Both the Mariners and Angels are known to be on the hunt for rotation upgrades, and Seattle in particular has the payroll space to accommodate any free agent on the market.

The Mariners have just four players on guaranteed contracts for the 2022 season and a fairly light arbitration class beyond slugging right fielder Mitch Haniger. All in all, Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects a payroll in the $59MM range — more than $100MM lower than the franchise’s previous record-high. Seattle is also in the market for a big right-handed bat in the infield, but the only locks in the rotation at present are Marco Gonzales, Chris Flexen and Logan Gilbert, so some rotation help is sure to be added as well. The biggest question for the Mariners is whether they’ll take the plunge on a pair of marquee free agents (e.g. Gausman and a big-name infielder) or stick to one free agent and make their other big addition on the trade market.

Down the coast in Orange County, the Angels have already made one significant splash in the rotation, adding Noah Syndergaard on a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $21MM. Syndergaard added another high-upside arm to a rotation mix including reigning MVP Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Suarez, Jaime Barria and top prospect Reid Detmers — but the Angels could certainly use a more established and durable arm like Gausman to help stabilize the top end of the rotation.

The question for the Angels is whether they’ll buck a longstanding trend of eschewing long-term deals for pitchers. As recently explored at MLBTR, the last free-agent starting pitcher to whom the Angels committed multiple years was Joe Blanton way back in 2012. The Halos’ recent signing of Aaron Loup was just the third pitcher — free agent or otherwise — the Angels have signed to a multi-year deal since that Blanton signing (the others being a two-year extension for closer Huston Street and a two-year deal buying out Ohtani’s first two arbitration seasons).

The last pitcher the Angels signed for three or more years was C.J. Wilson (five years, $77.5MM) a decade and three general managers ago. The Angels have pursued other free-agent starters on multi-year deals in that time (and reportedly made an offer to Steven Matz this week), but the team has never been comfortable with the top-end prices required to sign those pitchers at the end of the day.

Gausman, now free of a qualifying offer and having repeated his 2020 K-BB% gains over the course of a full season, is likely in position to command a free-agent deal of at least five seasons in length. Gausman ranked fifth on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent rankings at the beginning of the offseason.

Cardinals To Sign Steven Matz

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The Cardinals have made a late-night strike to bolster their rotation, reportedly reaching agreement with free agent starter Steven Matz on a four-year, $44MM guarantee, pending a physical. Incentives could eventually push that figure as high as $48MM. Matz is a client of Icon Sports Management.

Matz reportedly fielded offers from eight clubs, and interest was robust enough that he’d been expected to sign before Thanksgiving. Teams’ affinity for the 30-year-old is also evident in the eventual contract terms, as Matz’s deal fairly handily tops MLBTR’s three-year, $27MM projection entering the winter.

The left-hander has been a reliable rotation member for the majority of the past few years. He’s eclipsed 150 innings and posted an ERA between 3.82 and 4.21 in each of the last three 162-game seasons. His peripherals haven’t been quite as impressive, but Matz has typically offered near league average rate numbers while reliably taking the ball every fifth day.

Matz has never had elite swing-and-miss stuff. That continued to be the case in 2021, as his 22.3% strikeout percentage and 9.4% swinging strike rate were both a bit shy of the respective league average marks (22.6% and 10.9%) for starting pitchers. That’s arguably less alarming for St. Louis than it would be for other clubs around the league, as the Cardinals have reportedly been seeking pitchers best equipped to take advantage of the team’s elite defense. Matz seems to fit that bill, as he annually posts walk rates lower than most and typically induces ground balls at a slightly higher than average rate.

He’s also one of the harder throwers available, averaging 94.5 MPH on his sinker in each of the past two years. That’s particularly rare for a left-handed starter, with only seven other southpaws (minimum 100 innings) throwing harder on average in 2021. He’ll add a different look to a Cardinals rotation that otherwise projects to include right-handers Adam Wainwright, Jack Flaherty, Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson.

Further adding to Matz’s appeal is that the Blue Jays declined to issue him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason. The signing won’t cost St. Louis any draft pick compensation, and Toronto won’t receive any form of compensation for his departure. The Jays were reportedly among the teams to put forth an offer in hopes of keeping Matz north of the border, but that effort proved not to be enough to keep him in a Jays uniform for more than one season.

There’s plenty about Matz for the St. Louis front office to like, but this deal does come with its share of risk. While Matz was a solid performer in three of the past four seasons, his 2020 campaign was nothing short of a disaster. He was tagged for a 9.68 ERA across 30 2/3 innings that year, serving up a staggering 14 home runs in that time. Including that showing deals a heavy blow to Matz’s otherwise fairly solid recent work.

Going back to the start of 2018, he owns a cumulative 4.36 ERA/4.55 FIP in just under 500 frames. That’s not particularly impressive production in aggregate, worse than that of Anthony DeSclafani, who signed for three years and $36MM with the Giants on Monday. DeSclafani is a year older than Matz is, and perhaps the Cardinals are simply willing to write off 2020 as a small sample in an overall anomalous year.

Homers have been an issue for Matz for the bulk of his career in spite of his ground-ball proclivities, though. He’s generally given up a lot of hard contact when batters have managed to get the ball in the air against him. The 2021 campaign was the first of his career in which he’s allowed a homer per fly ball rate lower than the league mark. Whether he can sustain that kind of success keeping the ball in the yard could go a long way towards determining whether he’ll continue to post a sub-4.00 ERA over the coming seasons.

The specifics on Matz’s contract have yet to be reported, but he’ll receive an average annual value of $11MM. The Cardinals have the flexibility to accommodate an eight figure salary over the coming few seasons, with Jason Martinez of Roster Resource projecting the club’s 2022 player commitments in the $142MM range before accounting for Matz’s deal. Their obligations come out around $77MM in 2023. The franchise has opened the past few seasons with payrolls hovering right around $160MM, so a flat $11MM annual payment would leave somewhere around $7MM – $10MM in 2022 spending capacity if ownership signs off on a similar payroll next year. (Backloading the deal would obviously leave more immediate space but have a higher hit on the club’s future commitments).

That could allow St. Louis to make another addition or two elsewhere on the roster, and Katie Woo of the Athletic tweets that the Cardinals are expected to continue to add. It’s already a solid group without many obvious holes on paper, although shortstop, backup catcher and the bullpen all stand out as speculative possibilities for upgrades over the coming months.

Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that the Cardinals and Matz were in agreement on a four-year, $44MM guarantee that could max out at $48MM based on incentives.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Athletics Sign Ryan Castellani

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The A’s have signed right-hander Ryan Castellani, reports Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. Presumably, it’s a minor league deal that’ll include an invitation to big league Spring Training.

Castellani has appeared in the big leagues with the Rockies in each of the past two seasons, but the bulk of his experience came in 2020. He made ten appearances (including nine starts) during last year’s truncated campaign, working to a 5.82 ERA/6.49 SIERA over 43 1/3 innings. Castellani pitched in just one big league game this year, tossing 3 1/3 frames of two-run ball during a May 4 victory over the Giants.

The past two seasons haven’t been kind to Castellani, who has also struggled mightily with the Rox’s top affiliate in Albuquerque. That’s among the most hitter-friendly environments in affiliated ball, though, and the 25-year-old comes with some decent prospect pedigree.

A former second-round pick, Castellani appeared among Baseball America’s top ten Colorado farmhands entering each of the 2017, 2018 and 2020 campaigns. The sinkerballer has never missed many bats, but he posted solid walk and ground-ball numbers early in his professional tenure. He’s worked almost exclusively as a starter to this point, but it’s possible the A’s view him as rotation or long relief depth for 2022.

Steven Matz Weighing Multiple Offers, Expects To Sign This Week

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Nov. 23, 10:08 pm: Matz has at least one two-year offer in hand, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (on Twitter).

Nov. 23, 10:01 am: Matz is weighing offers from each of the Giants, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Cubs, Cardinals, Angels and Mets, Heyman tweets. The Giants’ offer remains on the table even after re-signing DeSclafani.

Nov. 22: The free agent starting pitching market has moved very quickly over the offseason’s first few weeks, and it seems another domino could soon fall. Southpaw Steven Matz is likely to pick his destination before Thanksgiving, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).

Interest in Matz has been robust, with the Red Sox, incumbent Blue Jays, Mets, Dodgers, Cardinals and Angels among teams already rumored to have interest. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network adds the Tigers, Cubs and Giants to that mix. The Mets have put forth a formal offer, although they’re joined in that regard by seven other clubs, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (on Twitter).

Matz is coming off a nice season in Toronto, rebounding from an awful 2020 campaign to toss 150 2/3 innings of 3.82 ERA ball. The 30-year-old didn’t miss too many bats, but he only walked 6.6% of opponents and induced grounders at a solid 45.5% clip. Matz’s 4.12 SIERA wasn’t quite as impressive as his ERA, but both his actual run prevention and peripherals have typically hovered right around 4.00.

That’s valuable mid-rotation production, although Matz has previously had some issues with the long ball. Home runs weren’t an issue in 2021, but he served up an astonishing 14 round-trippers in just 30 2/3 frames with the Mets in 2020. That showing seemingly marked for an ugly end to a generally solid tenure in Queens, but the New York front office apparently has interest in bringing him back into the fold after his bounceback showing this year.

Each of the Tigers, Cubs and Giants entered the offseason known to be targeting rotation help. The Cubs claimed Wade Miley off waivers from the division-rival Reds. Detroit has already signed Eduardo Rodríguez, while San Francisco has reunited with Anthony DeSclafani and are seemingly on the verge of a deal with Alex Wood. None of that trio has as marked a rotation need as they did just two weeks ago, but there’s enough uncertainty on all three clubs’ staffs that they can and probably will make another rotation addition of some sort this winter.

The Jays considered making Matz an $18.4MM qualifying offer but ultimately decided against it. Toronto won’t receive a compensatory pick if he were to sign elsewhere, then, while adding Matz wouldn’t cost another team a draft pick.

Dodgers Sign Jason Martin, Beau Burrows

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The Dodgers recently reached agreements with outfielder Jason Martin and right-hander Beau Burrows. Martin’s deal was reported by Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America; Burrows announced his own agreement with Los Angeles on Twitter this evening. Presumably, both contracts are minor league pacts that contain Spring Training invitations.

Martin has appeared in the majors in each of the past three seasons. Part of the Pirates’ four-player return from the Astros in the 2018 Gerrit Cole trade, he only tallied 51 trips to the plate in Pittsburgh over his first two seasons. Martin’s most extensive big league time came this past season when he logged 154 plate appearances with the Rangers. The 26-year-old hit just .208/.248/.354 with six homers in that time, though, and Texas outrighted him off the 40-man roster at the end of the season.

Over parts of three Triple-A campaigns, the Southern California native owns a .243/.315/.412 slash line. Martin has spent the bulk of his minor league time in center field, but the Rangers mostly deployed him in left field at the big league level. A left-handed hitter, Martin will likely try to compete for fourth or fifth outfield duty next spring.

Burrows is a former first-round pick of the Tigers. He made his big league debut with Detroit last year and split the 2021 campaign between the Tigers and division-rival Twins. Burrows’ big league experience consists of just 17 2/3 innings of 10.70 ERA ball, and he’s allowed eight long balls with eleven strikeouts and walks apiece.

The 25-year-old hasn’t fared especially well in Triple-A either, but he’s not far removed from being one of the more well-regarded arms coming up through the Tigers’ organization. He’s pitched reasonably well as a starter up through Double-A and could be viewed as either rotation or bullpen depth for Los Angeles.

MLB, MLBPA Agree To Move Tender Deadline Up To November 30

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Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association have agreed to move this year’s deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players up from December 2 to November 30 at 8:00 pm EST, according to reports from Robert Murray of FanSided and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter links).

The decision moves the tender deadline before the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement, which is scheduled to happen at 11:59 pm EST on December 1. If a new agreement is not reached within the next eight days, it’s generally expected that the league would institute a lockout and subsequent transactions freeze. The MLBPA recently put together a 36-page document outlining the potential parameters of a lockout for players and their representatives, according to a report from Evan Drellich and Rosenthal.

Leaving the tender deadline on December 2 would’ve left arbitration-eligible players in a state of limbo over the course of a potential transactions freeze. Many could’ve been left with uncertainty about whether their current clubs intended to bring them back next season while awaiting a bargaining process that could take weeks or months to resolve.

Against that backdrop, the final few hours of the current CBA could present a hectic time for teams eager to finalize moves before the potential transactions freeze. Certain players, meanwhile, might feel pressure to sign contracts for 2022 rather than risk having to linger in free agency over the course of a lockout and face a potential rushed free agent period were CBA negotiations to linger near or into next year’s Spring Training. By forcing teams to make the final call on their arbitration-eligible players early, some non-tendered options could look to catch on with a new club on December 1 and avoid that uncertainty altogether.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Guardians

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A new name represents a new era in Cleveland baseball, and the club will look to mark their inaugural season as the Guardians with a return to playoff contention.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jose Ramirez, 3B: $12MM for 2022 (salary guaranteed after Guardians exercised club option; Guardians also have $13MM club option for 2023)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

After eight consecutive winning seasons, the Guardians finally dropped under the .500 mark with an 80-82 record in 2021.  With the lineup still producing runs at an inconsistent rate, Cleveland couldn’t make up the difference thanks to some injury absences in their rotation.  Simply getting Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac healthy and productive for all of 2022 will likely do more to boost the team’s chances than almost anything they could do on the transaction front, though the Guardians now face an interesting set of decisions this offseason.

Or, maybe, it just boils down to one over-arching decision — how much are the Guardians willing to spend?  Jose Ramirez represents the lone guaranteed contract on the books, and the arbitration class projects to earn $23.5MM and even that total could be reduced by a non-tender or two.  Between that group and the pre-arbitration players on the rosters, Roster Resource estimates roughly a $49.2MM payroll for the Guardians next season, which is well below the $124MM spent in 2019.  A return to the (comparatively) big expenditures of 2017-18 may not happen until a new minority owner is found, though both team chairman/CEO Paul Dolan and president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti have said the Guardians will have a larger payroll to work with in 2022.

Even if spending rises to just around the $100MM mark, that gives Antonetti’s front office some real leverage in building around a strong core.  Ramirez is one of the game’s best players, Franmil Reyes boasts tremendous power, Emmanuel Clase emerged as a strong closer, Amed Rosario and Myles Straw look like quality everyday regulars, and the rotation is one of baseball’s best when healthy.  If anything, Cleveland’s rotation might even be deeper than usual — Cal Quantrill and Triston McKenzie each had some quality outings while filling in for the injured starters in 2021, so either or both could build on this experience to take another step forward as the fourth and fifth starters.

Cleveland usually doesn’t spend much on its rotation due to the team’s knack for developing homegrown arms, though in the wake of 2021’s injuries, investing on a low-cost veteran might not be a bad idea.  Eli Morgan and Logan Allen are already on hand as more starting depth, but a Wade LeBlanc-esque swingman type could also work, as that pitcher could then also help out a bullpen that will need to cover some innings.

Bryan Shaw, Blake Parker, and Nick Wittgren are all headed for free agency, representing 183 1/3 frames of work out of last year’s pen.  As with the starters, the Guardians aren’t prone to making any big outlays for relief pitching, so it’s probable to expect some minor league signings competing with the team’s in-house pitchers come Spring Training.  It also isn’t out of the question that the Guardians could target a younger and more promising relief candidate as part of trade talks with other clubs, a la how they landed Clase from the Rangers as part of the 2019 Corey Kluber deal.

Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, and Carlos Carrasco have all been traded over the last few years, so it can’t be ruled out that the Guardians could look to deal another starter in exchange for a top-tier younger bat.  However, the circumstances are a little different now, as while those past starters were all becoming increasingly expensive, Cleveland’s current rotation group is still pretty affordable.  Bieber and Quantrill are the only ones who have even reached arbitration eligibility, and Bieber is projected for a $4.8MM salary in his first trip through the arb process.  This is significantly below what Bieber would have earned if he’d been able to follow up his 2020 Cy Young Award-winning campaign with a similar season, so his injury-plagued year cost him both on the field and in the pocketbook.

In the wake of such a year, could Bieber perhaps be more open to a contract extension?  The ace right-hander turned down the Guardians’ offers last spring, but there would seem to be room for a deal considering how the team has no official money committed for the 2023 season and beyond.  If not Bieber, expect the Guardians to look into extensions for any of Civale, Plesac, Quantrill, or McKenzie, given how the organization has long prioritized locking up talent earlier in their careers.

Since Bieber is under control for three more years at arbitration-controlled prices, he isn’t the star whose future has drawn the most speculation.  Ramirez is under team control for only two more seasons (2023 via another club option) and is already making a significant salary, even if $12MM is a bargain for the third baseman’s outstanding production.  2024 will be Ramirez’s age-31 season, so even if the Guardians are open to a splurge on what would easily be the biggest contract in franchise history, the question remains if they would take that plunge for Ramirez specifically, even if he isn’t showing any signs of decline.

Extensions talks with Ramirez have yet to yield any progress, and any number of teams are ready and willing to step up with huge trade offers if Cleveland did decide to move their superstar.  Like with the starters, however, the timing doesn’t seem quite right for a Ramirez trade, since his contract isn’t prohibitive and the Guardians are planning to contend next year.  Barring a ridiculous trade offer that was too good to ignore, the Guardians are more likely to deal Ramirez next winter, if they end up dealing him at all.

With this in mind, expect Ramirez to return as the linchpin of a Cleveland lineup that underwhelmed in 2021, and was no-hit on three (or, unofficially, four) separate occasions.  Despite the lack of overall punch, some interesting pieces are already in place — Ramirez is set at third base, Reyes will mostly serve as the DH and play some corner outfield, Straw will be the everyday center fielder, Bobby Bradley is slated for at least a share of first base duties, and Rosario will play somewhere, provisionally at shortstop for now.

We’ll begin with the unsettled middle infield, as Rosario might end up as the regular shortstop, or be used in a super-utility role that would see him also get time in the outfield or as part of the crowded second base mix.  Rosario’s future at shortstop may hinge on how quickly prospect Gabriel Arias is able to develop his bat to match his already-excellent defense, and Arias took a nice step forward by hitting .284/.348/.454 with 13 home runs over 483 plate appearances at Triple-A last season.  If Arias still needs more seasoning, Andres Gimenez could also get more shortstop time if he hits as he did during his 2020 rookie season with the Mets, as opposed to his disappointing numbers with Cleveland last year.

Gimenez joins Owen Miller, Yu Chang, and Ernie Clement in the second base mix, with some type of platoon likely (Gimenez is a left-handed hitter, and the others are righty bats).  Top prospect Tyler Freeman will make his Triple-A debut in 2022, so he is expected to factor into the big league roster sometime closer to the end of the season.  There is enough volume at the position that a veteran offseason addition probably isn’t likely, since the Guardians will use Spring Training and the season itself to see what they have with this collection of players, with Freeman tentatively penciled in as their second baseman of the future.

While adding a regular middle infielder may not be feasible, adding a regular to the middle infield group could be more of a fit.  Chris Taylor would be a nice addition to just about any team’s roster, but he might fit particularly well onto a Guardians team looking for stability in the middle infield and at both corner outfield slots.  If Taylor is too expensive, a veteran utility type like Josh Harrison or Leury Garcia could provide some of the same versatility (if much less of a hitting ceiling) at a far lower price.

Since Cleveland’s biggest-ever free agent signing is still Edwin Encarnacion’s three-year, $60MM pact from the 2016-17 offseason, it remains to be seen if the Guardians are willing to spend to the level necessary to land a notable free agent even in the second tier of this year’s market.  Looking at some potential outfielders who could be on the Guardians’ radar, Taylor (projected for four years and $64MM), Kyle Schwarber (four years/$70MM), and Seiya Suzuki (five years/$55MM) would all likely require contracts that might be out of the team’s comfort zone.  Avisail Garcia, Mark Canha, or perhaps even Michael Conforto could be more viable options, though signing Conforto would require Cleveland to surrender a draft pick via the qualifying offer.

Again, the lack of future money on the books could make the Guardians more willing to stretch the budget to include a premium bat.  The Encarnacion signing came about due to something of a perfect storm of circumstances — there wasn’t a ton of interest in Encarnacion’s market, and Cleveland felt the time was right for a big strike having just lost a heartbreaker of a World Series in 2016.  Coming off a rare losing season, and with some financial flexibility, and with the wholly unique environment of debuting a new team name, Cleveland could again see the winter as a unique opportunity to land a big name.

Conversely, spending on multiple needs is a viable and maybe more realistic strategy than acquiring only one high-priced player.  Landing two starting corner outfielders, for instance, would perhaps be the swiftest way of solving an outfield depth problem that has plagued Cleveland for years.  Straw does represent one box checked, as the trade deadline acquisition offers on-base ability, speed, and a solid glove that should play well as the Guardians’ center fielder.

As for the other members of the 2021 outfield, it seems like the Guardians are trending towards more or less cleaning house.  Daniel Johnson has already been designated for assignment, while Bradley Zimmer is a non-tender candidate and Oscar Mercado is also no guarantee for the Opening Day roster.  Assuming at least one more full-time outfielder is acquired to join Straw in the everyday lineup, Cleveland can still potentially fill the rest of the outfield depth from within.  Factors to consider include Rosario’s utility value, how much time Reyes might see outside of the DH spot, prospect Nolan Jones’ development as an outfielder, and Josh Naylor’s readiness in the wake of major ankle surgery.

The Guardians declined their club option on Roberto Perez, so the two sides may now be parting ways after Perez’s eight seasons in Cleveland.  Austin Hedges represents a cheaper in-house option as a similar glove-first, light-hitting catcher, and while Perez’s $7MM price tag was too rich for the Guardians’ blood, a reunion at a lower salary could be possible.  With Hedges and prospects Bo Naylor and Bryan Lavastida in the pipeline, Cleveland is likely to consider only shorter-term veterans like Perez for their needs behind the plate, unless the front office feels a more bold long-term answer is required.  Catching depth isn’t exactly easy to find, but speculatively, teams like the Blue Jays (who are often linked to Cleveland on the rumor mill) or the Braves lineup as trade partners.

First base could also be a position of need, depending on how comfortable the Guardians feel about Bradley.  In his first season of regular playing time, Bradley hit 16 homers but batted only .208/.294/.445 and struck out in 99 of his 279 plate appearances.  To begin the season, Cleveland could let a platoon of Bradley and Chang or Miller handle first base duties, and then perhaps look for first base help during the year if an upgrade is required.  If the club wants to move now, however, someone like Anthony Rizzo might fall within the Guardians’ price range in free agency, and the likes of Matt Olson, Luke Voit, or J.D. Davis could be available targets on the trade market.

Even considering the extra payroll space involved this winter, it’s probably safe to assume the Guardians will stick largely to the trade route rather than free agency, considering how Antonetti’s front office has generally found quite a bit of success in swinging trades over the years.  Rival clubs will surely ask about Freeman, Arias, Jones, and other top minor leaguers in negotiations, and Cleveland will be hesitant about moving any of the names at the top of their board just because of how much emphasis the team puts on building from within.  Since several of the Guardians’ most notable prospects will likely hit the majors within a year or two, it does give the team some flexibility in deciding who to keep or who to dangle as a trade chip, especially since most teams prioritize big league-ready young talent.

No shortage of options are available to the Guardians this winter, which is why any thoughts of dealing Ramirez or Bieber to spark a rebuild seem extremely premature.  While the AL Central promises to be more competitive in 2022, the Guardians certainly must feel like winning the division crown is possible, and even having a healthy rotation last year would’ve gone a long way towards reducing the 13-game gap between Cleveland and the first-place White Sox.  If you’re looking for a metaphor for the launch of the Guardians name, maybe 2021 was the bridge year necessary to get the team past the pandemic and back to some semblance of business as usual, since the Guardians are likely to be aggressive in getting back to winning baseball.

Reds Reportedly Open To Trading Sonny Gray

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The Reds are open to trading right-handed starter Sonny Gray this offseason, reports Buster Olney of ESPN (Twitter link). However, Olney hears that Cincinnati isn’t amenable to moving either of Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle.

No deal involving Gray appears to be close, but he’s seemingly the most likely Reds starter to wind up on the move at some point. That’s not especially surprising, since Gray’s also the most expensive of their top trio. Cincinnati has opened the offseason scaling back expenditures, and general manager Nick Krall has spoken about “aligning (the team’s) payroll to its resources.” Early reports suggested a Castillo deal could be part of those efforts, but Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last week that it was doubtful any deal involving the 28-year-old would come to fruition.

Gray looks like a fairly straightforward trade candidate as he enters the final guaranteed year of his contract. He’s slated to earn around $10.67MM in 2022 and remains under club control for 2023 via $12.5MM club option. (Gray would also receive a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade). That’s a reasonable sum for a pitcher of Gray’s caliber, but it also makes him Cincinnati’s fourth-highest paid player. And the three players set to earn loftier sums (Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas and Eugenio Suárez) wouldn’t be easy to move. Votto’s a franchise icon who has full no-trade protection; Moustakas and Suárez are coming off bad 2021 seasons and wouldn’t figure to hold much appeal to other clubs.

On the other hand, Gray offers a blend of fairly substantial but still team-friendly salary that could make a trade realistic. He’s coming off a season in which he posted a 4.19 ERA/3.85 SIERA across 135 1/3 innings. That’s decent mid-rotation production, and Gray was even better over his first couple seasons in Cincinnati. Despite pitching in one of the league’s more hitter-friendly home environments, the right-hander reeled off 231 1/3 innings of 3.07 ERA ball from 2019-20.

Gray has backed up those solid results with strong underlying numbers. While he typically runs walk rates a bit higher than the league average, he also generates an enviable combination of punchouts and grounders. Gray has posted above-average strikeout and ground-ball percentages in each of the past three seasons. His 27% and 47.2% marks in those categories in 2021 were his lowest since 2018, but even those were both markedly above the respective league averages (22.6% and 42.7%) for starting pitchers.

Installing Gray into the middle of a rotation should have plenty of appeal around the league. The Dodgers were already rumored to have interest in that possibility this offseason, and others would join them if the Reds’ front office began to discuss trade frameworks in earnest.

Both Castillo and Mahle could bring even greater returns, as they’re arguably superior pitchers who are more affordable. Like Gray, both righties are controllable for two more seasons, but they’re proceeding through arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Castillo for a $7.6MM salary in 2022; Mahle is projected to bring in around $5.6MM. Both pitchers would stand to earn a final raise in 2023, although it’s unlikely either would match or top the value of Gray’s $12.5MM option that year.

Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem the Reds are preparing to tear the roster down completely. Coming off an 83-win season with a strong core led by their talented rotation, it’s not implausible that Cincinnati could compete next season. A frugal offseason would certainly make building a strong roster more difficult for Krall and his front office, particularly with middle-of-the-order presence Nick Castellanos likely to sign elsewhere as a free agent. A returning group including Castillo, Mahle, Votto, Jesse Winker, Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson certainly has promise, though. Speculatively speaking, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them target near-MLB players in potential discussions involving Gray to help thread that needle of remaining competitive while cutting costs.

Yankees Place Clint Frazier, Rougned Odor On Release Waivers

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4:49 pm: Frazier has been placed on release waivers, but he has not yet cleared, tweets MLBTR’s Steve Adams. The waiver period expires tomorrow, so it remains possible another team grabs Frazier off the wire. If he passes through unclaimed, he’ll hit free agency.

4:05 pm: New York announced they’ve released both Frazier and Rougned Odor, who was also designated for assignment last week. Odor hit .202/.286/.379 across 361 plate appearances with the Yankees this past season. The Rangers will remain on the hook for almost all of his $12.33MM salary for 2022, per the terms of the teams’ April trade.

2:51 pm: The Yankees have released outfielder Clint Frazier following last week’s DFA, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

The 2021 season proved to be a brutal one for Frazier, a former first-round pick and top prospect whom the Yankees acquired from Cleveland as part of their return for lefty Andrew Miller. Frazier looked like a breakout candidate from 2019-20 when he posted a combined .267/.347/.497 batting line with 20 homers, 20 doubles and a triple in 465 plate appearances. However, he appeared in just 66 games this season and tallied 218 plate appearances with a woeful .186/.317/.317 output in that time.

More concerning than his bottom-line performance, however, were persistent health issues that still remain somewhat vague and unclear to the public. Frazier has had a concussion in 2018 and has since spent time on the injured list for blurred vision, dizziness and other vertigo-like symptoms. He pulled himself from a minor league rehab assignment this summer, after which manager Aaron Boone told reporters that Frazier was “not quite feeling where he needed to be.” He didn’t return to the field thereafter.

Precisely what has bothered Frazier, however, hasn’t been fully clear. The Yankees were typically vague with updates, and Frazier himself tweeted on Oct. 11 that the injury issues have been “very personal to me and something I’ve wanted to handle privately.” There’s no sense in speculating as to the root of the issue, but the obvious hope is that any maladies that have troubled the clearly talented 27-year-old can soon be put in the past.

With Frazier now reaching the market, he’ll be able to sign with any club. He still has three seasons of arbitration eligibility remaining, so Frazier will likely sign a one-year deal somewhere and, if all goes well, reenter the arbitration system with his new club. A rebuilding team with plenty of at-bats to offer could view Frazier as an appealing upside play — not entirely dissimilar from David Dahl an offseason ago. While the Dahl signing didn’t pan out in Texas, Frazier will surely have teams interested in a similar scenario — assuming he’s in good health.

Prior to his MLB debut, Frazier ranked among the 50 best prospects in the game on most notable lists. He’s a career .262/.333/.471 hitter in 934 Triple-A plate appearances, and Frazier entered the 2021 season as a career .258/.331/.475 hitter in 589 MLB trips  to the plate.

Woodward: Rangers In Contact With Clayton Kershaw

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The Rangers have been in contact with free agent starter Clayton Kershaw, Texas manager Chris Woodward told Alanna Rizzo and Chris Russo of the MLB Network yesterday (video provided by Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). It’s certainly not a surprise to hear the Rangers are interested in the Dallas native, given their apparent willingness to spend this offseason and the three-time Cy Young award winner’s ties to the area.

That’s all the more true considering Woodward’s connection to Kershaw. The Texas skipper spent three years on the Dodgers’ coaching staff before assuming his current role, a stint that overlapped with the future Hall of Famer’s run of dominance in L.A. Woodward called it an honor “to be around (Kershaw)” in Los Angeles and noted that “if he wants to come back to Texas, I’m pretty sure we’re going to welcome him.”

That’s certainly not to suggest Kershaw to Arlington is a fait accompli. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has already gone on record as saying the star southpaw “will always have a spot” in Los Angeles if he’d prefer to return to the only organization he’s ever known. In explaining the club’s decision not to issue him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason, Friedman suggested Kershaw preferred to take some time to talk through his free agency decision with his family and to continue to rehab from the forearm/elbow injury that ended his 2021 season early.

The Dodgers and Rangers have long been viewed as the favorites to land Kershaw this winter, and it seems he’ll have his choice of either destination. Plenty of other clubs would happily jump into the bidding were Kershaw to cast a wider net geographically, although he’s been fairly quiet publicly about his preferences this offseason.

While Kershaw’s season didn’t end the way he or the Dodgers had envisioned, he remained very productive when healthy enough to pitch. Across 121 2/3 innings, the 2014 NL MVP worked to a 3.55 ERA with an elite 29.5% strikeout rate and a minuscule 4.3% walk percentage. He hasn’t posted an ERA above 4.00 since his 2008 rookie campaign, and Kershaw has incredibly managed a sub-3.00 mark in eleven of his fourteen major league seasons.

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