The Brewers have often been competitive without being big spenders. They fell off of that fine line in 2022, trading away their closer and stumbling out of the postseason picture down the stretch. Unless there’s a payroll boost coming, some more tough financial decisions might be over the horizon.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Christian Yelich, OF: $162.5MM through 2028 (including $6.5MM buyout of 2029 mutual option)
- Aaron Ashby, LHP: $18.5MM through 2027 (including $1MM buyout of 2028 club option)
- Freddy Peralta, RHP: $10.5MM through 2024 (including $1.5MM buyout of 2025 club option)
Total 2023 commitments: $30.5MM
Total future commitments: $191.5MM
Option Decisions
- Kolten Wong, 2B: $10MM club option with $2MM buyout
- Brad Boxberger, RHP: $3MM club option, $750K buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Hunter Renfroe (5.165): $11.2MM
- Brent Suter (5.161): $3.1MM
- Victor Caratini (5.051): $2.8MM
- Luis Perdomo (5.034): $1MM
- Brandon Woodruff (4.161): $11MM
- Matt Bush (4.132): $2MM
- Willy Adames (4.105): $9.2MM
- Trevor Gott (4.057): $1.4MM
- Corbin Burnes (4.049): $11.4MM
- Eric Lauer (4.033): $5.2MM
- Jandel Gustave (4.027): $900K
- Adrian Houser (4.010): $3.6MM
- Rowdy Tellez (4.004): $5.3MM
- Luis Urías (3.120): $4.3MM
- Hoby Milner (3.068): $1.1MM
- Devin Williams (3.056): $3.2MM
- Mike Brosseau (3.031): $1.2MM
- Keston Hiura (3.009): $2MM
- Non-tender candidates: Renfroe, Suter, Perdomo, Bush, Gott, Gustave,
Free Agents
- Andrew McCutchen, Omar Narváez, Jace Peterson, Taylor Rogers, Jonathan Davis, Pedro Severino, Josh Lindblom, Trevor Rosenthal
For much of 2022, it seemed that the Brewers were cruising to a fifth straight postseason appearance. As July was winding down and the trade deadline was drawing near, they were sitting atop the NL Central, four games clear of the Cardinals. A team in that position would normally lean into the “buyer” category, but Milwaukee tried to have it both ways. They traded their star closer Josh Hader, and his increasingly-expensive salary, to the Padres. They added some young players to their farm system and surely hoped that the bullpen would be fine without him, with the plan being that Devin Williams would step into the closer’s role, supported by deadline acquisitions Taylor Rogers, Matt Bush and Trevor Rosenthal.
Unfortunately, rumors quickly began swirling that the move had a deleterious effect on the morale in the clubhouse. While that can’t be definitively quantified, what is certainly true is that the move didn’t pan out on the field. Rogers and Bush both struggled after the move while an injury kept Rosenthal from ever joining the club. The Brewers went 29-31 from the start of August until the end of the schedule, yielding the Central to the Cardinals and finishing one game behind the Phillies for the final NL Wild Card spot.
President of baseball operations David Stearns is under contract for 2023, though there was reportedly some type of opt-out in his contract that could have allowed him to pursue other opportunities. It was unclear if the Brewers had to reach the NLCS or the World Series to put him in position to trigger that opt-out, although it’s now a moot point since the club missed the playoffs entirely. Stearns is a New York native and has been frequently mentioned in rumors connecting him to the Mets, but the Brewers have denied him the opportunity to explore jobs with other organizations. It seems that he will be staying in Milwaukee for at least one more season.
It doesn’t seem like it will be an easy offseason for him to navigate, as the Hader trade didn’t solve the payroll situation for the Brewers. Never huge spenders, the club ran out an Opening Day payroll of $132MM this year, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That represented a franchise record but was still in the bottom half of the league, coming in 19th out of the 30 MLB teams. For 2023, Roster Resource estimates they’re already pretty close to that number, currently pegged at $118MM. They have a huge 18-player arbitration class and could improve their financial situation with a few non-tenders, though that would also create more holes on a roster that already proved insufficient. Next year, the more balanced schedule means they will have fewer games within their weak division, which will only increase the challenge of competing in 2023. Unless another bump is coming for the budget, it’s possible Stearns will have to continue walking fine lines.
The starting rotation is currently in a strong position, as the club has six starters with varying levels of strength. Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff are clearly at the front end, with both showing ace potential at times. Freddy Peralta has some durability concerns but has shown himself capable of being almost as good as Burnes and Woodruff when healthy. That’s an extremely good front three, and it’s bolstered by Eric Lauer, Aaron Ashby and Adrian Houser as serviceable back-end guys. However, all six of them are in line for raises in 2023. Peralta’s extension will lead to his salary going from $2.25MM up to $3.5MM next year, while Ashby’s will go from $700K to $1MM as part of his own extension. The other four starters will all be eligible for raises via arbitration. Back in September, Burnes discussed his status with Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, very much aware of the fact he’s a candidate to follow the same path as Hader. It might be difficult for the Brewers to consider trading another star hurler after the Hader deal went so poorly, but taking that off the table will likely lead to difficult decisions elsewhere.
The bullpen is probably the least-impressive it’s been in some time, now that Hader is no longer atop the chart. However, Devin Williams still gives them an excellent starting point. He’s now thrown 155 1/3 innings in the big leagues with a 2.03 ERA, 48.8% ground ball rate and 39.5% strikeout rate. His 11.5% walk rate is certainly on the high side, though he’s still been very effective. He racked up 26 holds and 15 saves in 2022 and seems ticketed for permanent closer duties going forward. He’ll qualify for arbitration for the first time this winter but should still be well worth the salary bump.
The rest of the bullpen is a bit more murky. Rosenthal and Rogers are free agents. Matt Bush struggled after the trade but still finished the season with a 3.47 ERA on the season as a whole. He’ll be due a raise via arbitration but not a huge one. Brad Boxberger had another strong season for Milwaukee and can be retained via a $3MM club option. That might seem to be a fairly easy trigger at first glance, but his strikeout rate took a downturn this year and he’s turning 35 in May. Is the payroll tight enough for the Brewers to simply walk away and dedicate those resources elsewhere? Peter Strzelecki had a nice debut and hasn’t yet reached arbitration. However, pitchers like Trevor Gott, Luis Perdomo, Jandel Gustave and Brent Suter are all part of that huge arbitration class and none of them were outstanding in 2022. A few non-tenders would save the club a few bucks but would also weaken the overall depth. Either way, they will probably look to find some low-cost additions, either through free agency or waiver claims.
Behind the plate, the Brewers are facing the departure of Omar Narváez. His bat took a step back in 2022 but he still provided value with his glove. Without him, the primary catcher is Victor Caratini, who was having a strong season but finished quite poorly. Through the end of July, he was hitting .231/.355/.413 for a wRC+ of 121, but then slashed just .163/.234/.264 the rest of the way for a wRC+ of 39. Adding another backstop would make some sense, but they could also start the year with Alex Jackson and Mario Feliciano battling Caratini for playing time if the budget is tight.
Rowdy Tellez should have first base spoken for after a solid season at the plate. He hit 35 home runs and produced a batting line of .219/.306/.461 for a wRC+ of 110. However, it’s possible the club will consider trading Tellez and giving first base to Keston Hiura, a possibility recently explored by MLBTR’s Maury Ahram. Hiura struck out in 41.7% of his plate appearances but still hit 14 home runs in 80 games and produced a 115 wRC+. He can play other positions at times but doesn’t get great marks for his work at second base or in left field. A trade could clear up some money but it also wouldn’t break the bank to keep Tellez and Hiura in some sort of platoon rotation.
Up the middle, Willy Adames has shortstop locked down but second base is a little less clear. The club has a $10MM club option over Kolten Wong’s services for 2023, which comes with a $2MM buyout. That net $8MM decision would normally be a very clear decision, with exercising it the obvious choice. However, given the potential payroll constraints and Wong’s unusually weak defensive year, it’s possible that the Brewers look to move on. Wong himself seemed to acknowledge all of this recently, realizing that it’s possible that he is replaced by prospect Brice Turang, who had a nice year in Triple-A. There’s also a couple of utility guys present, with Luis Urías and Mike Brosseau on the roster. They’re both coming off solid seasons, though at least one of them will likely need to cover third base due to the free agency of Jace Peterson. Though Peterson has never been an above-average hitter by measure of wRC+, except in the shortened 2020 campaign, he got excellent marks for his work at the hot corner this year while also occasionally moving to first base, second base and the outfield corners.
In the outfield, Christian Yelich will continue manning one spot. He’s not quite living up to his salary, as he’s getting paid to be the MVP-level player he was in 2018 and 2019. He’s fallen short of that in each of the past three seasons but has still been a solid above-average regular. Hunter Renfroe could be in another corner, though he also could be a non-tender candidate based on his one-dimensional output. He hit 29 home runs in 2022 but was below-average at drawing walks and isn’t especially strong on defense. He’s certainly still a valuable player, but with a projected salary of $11.2MM, the Brewers could look to trade him and find a comparable player for less money on the free agent market.
In center field, 2023 will be the first full season of the post-Lorenzo Cain era. Jackson Chourio is considered by many to be one of the best prospects in the sport and the center fielder of the future in Milwaukee. However, he’s not yet reached his 19th birthday and will surely need some more time. Rookie Garrett Mitchell got some big league playing time down the stretch and fared well, though in a small sample of just 28 games. Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer each finished strong in Triple-A and could be ready for a jump to the majors quite soon. Esteury Ruiz, acquired from the Padres in the Hader deal, has already gotten a taste of the majors. However, the Brewers played him in left field more than center after trading for him.
The Brewers have some interesting decisions ahead of them this winter, as they look to bounce back from a disappointing 2022 campaign. They have some question marks in the outfield, especially if they let Renfroe go. They have some holes on the infield, especially if they don’t retain Wong. The bullpen certainly has room for some upgrades, as does their catching corps. To address those areas, there might not be a ton of money to work with, meaning it could be one more year on the tightrope.
In conjunction with this post, Darragh McDonald held a Brewers-centric chat on 10-26-22. Click here to read the transcript.
This offense needs an overhaul. Nothing should be left off the table and nobody should be off limits
It was extremely frustrating to watch the offense this year, so I get the desire for change. But what affect does the end of the extreme shift have if you would run it back again?
The offense was fine this year. It was the best of the Stearns era and on par with the peak Braun and Fielder lineups. That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t look to improve this offseason just that it wasn’t the issue this season.
After the disappointing end to last season for the Brewers i could see a soft reboot coming this winter. Whatever they do they need to add a bat, especially if they non-tender Renfroe to at least try to stay competitive
I think that the Brewers should keep Renfroe for one year. They have Frelick, Mitchell and Chourios for thereafter.
Yelich has been bad for three years now. That contract is a killer, especially given his level of production, or lack thereof. The good news is, he’s only got SIX YEARS to go!
He’s only “bad” in comparison to his salary. He’s still an above average hitter.
Bud Selig Fan?
He’s the expert, and totally on top of what they’ll be doing.
They will play their young OF’s Frelick-Mitchell-Ruiz and eventually Wiemer, which means Renfroe is gone. They’ll let Wong go as well. IF of Urias-Adames-Turang-Tellez. Probably bring in a C thru trade or FA signing to pair with Caratini.
Trade Burnes for a huge return. Go with Woodruff-Peralta-Lauer-Ashby-Houser and a FA starter acquisition.
Bullpen of Williams-Bush and a FA HL arm acquisition among others.
Team takes a slight step-back to allow for development time for their rookies that pays off next season.
Bud Selig Fan;
Exceptional …. as usual.
Brewers are all about run prevention. Looks like they’ll have 3 CF’s playing at times.
The haul will be interesting. Looking for some combination of a pitching prospect (or 2), a young C, 3B, or even SS.
Quality teams develop their own bullpens. Brewers will find guys over the next few years – they’ve done it before.
Quality and hungry youngsters that are trained in fundamentals bring a lot of enthusiasm on the field and excitement to the fans. I think when Brewers fans see what’s going on they’ll be as happy as Baltimore and Cleveland fans were this year. Smart FO’s and managers / coaches field high Baseball IQ teams. Always fun to watch play.
Samuel—
Burnes trade will need his eventual replacement and close to big-league ready. The weakness of the farm system is in starter arms at the upper levels. Robert Gasser is it for the next 2-3 years, so the trades of Burnes and eventually Woodruff and Lauer, if they don’t extend, will need to bring in big starter arms, and a couple need to be BLR.
Why Burnes rather than Woodruff?
MannyBeingMVP—
Because Burnes will bring a larger return than Woodruff, and unlike Woodruff, the team has no chance of extending him.
I could see Charlie Blackmon on the team next year
And his $15m salary?
Yes
It would have to be via trade because he already announced he was exercising his player option.
My thought exactlys
Sal Frelich was incredible last year. He is for real. No point to waiting. Any chance we could turn Renfto into Kelenic? Stranger things have happened, after all. Somehow we turned JBJ into Renfro.
Wonder what kind of package it would take to get Woodruff & Renfroe on the Rangers?
Darragh, You are up to it still after the Halo chat???? Wow….very impressive stamina/resolve.
The Brewers have contorted themselves like crazy to avoid the rebuild cycle but this year it finally caught up them. It looks like a bottom-out era is coming in a year or two despite whatever new tricks that Stearns and Arnold try.
Now is the time to boost payroll and try to keep the offense competent enough. Attanasio doesn’t seem to care enough to truly go for it, but it isn’t so black and white. Bring back Wong, keep Renfroe, and look for legitimate upgrades at 3rd and/or catcher. Anyone on the farm besides Chourio (and maybe him too) should be made available in trade talks.
If not, trade Burnes now. Try to extend a few of Woodruff, Adames, Tellez, Taylor etc to keep the kids and shirsey buyers happy. Trade the rest and tread water until the Jackson “prince who was promised” Chourio is old enough to buy a Schlitz.
Offense was too inconsistent and too homer happy last year. Beating up on the Reds really inflated their total offensive numbers. They have to retool the offense but will likely have to trade one of their pitchers. This could be a quick one year rebuild but that would give the Cardinals the division by default.
The offense was 6th in both 4+ and 5+ runs scored games and T-9th in fewest times held to 2 runs or less. It’s hard to be much more consistent than that. The offense wasn’t the issue with the team this past season. It was a slide from 3rd fewest runs allowed in 2021 to 17th in 2022.
As a whole the defense was bad this year for them I agree. Only 2 players had a dwar over 1 and 1 was a bench player.
dWAR includes positional adjustments, they were still in the top 3rd of the league defensively by the actual defensive metrics.
I hope the writer of this checked with team beat writers, Twitter and of course that bengina commentor for research and accurate information to share with us.
Yellich had a down couple of years. Pandemic shortened, strike lockout shortened season probably threw the preparation off. The harder traded didn’t work out for the padres or the brewers. Melvin didn’t use him for a 6 out save when needed and the brewers were down after their all star in first place closer gets traded. That’s usually unheard of.
I’m curious to see if the Brewers decide to start some type of retooling phase. They could deal Woodruff, Burnes, and Lauer and get mostly young controllable players in return especially young hitters. They could do the exact same type of rebuild that Cleveland recently did.
Johnnymarty95;
Cleveland made some trades. But the bulk of the players – as with the Orioles – were drafted and developed in their farm system..
Still a pretty decent amount were acquired via trade-Gimenez, Rosario, Straw, Naylor, Clase, and Quantrill.
Tito gets a lot of credit, as he should, but Antonetti has done an outrageously good job.
The article doesn’t even mention Tyrone Taylor at all. If you want to move on from Renfroe to save cash, fine but find a way to get TT consistent playing time and at bats. I think he could mash 25 dingers and 75 RBI if given the chance to play more. Cain is gone now, he deserves a shot
He had a shot. Outside of that week+ against SD and the Cubs, and a handful of PH swings, he didn’t do much to write home about.
as long as Mark Attanasio is the owner of the brewers they will never win anything
Every team is going to have to re evaluate their pitching staff with the introduction of the pitch clock
It will change the careers for some pitchers.
Phillies May vote a World Series share to Brewers GM for orchestrating the Hader trade.
They would not have even made the playoffs without his help. Brewer fans should be calling for his resignation.
panj341;
Actually, the Brewers should easily have made a playoff spot.
Not the GM’s fault. I watched those players quit on the field after the trade. No excuse for that in any professional team sport. Most of those position players need to be turned over in the next 2 years….and I believe they will be.
If the Brewers are on the fence regarding Renfroe and Wong, either or both would fit really well with the RS. Story back to SS and Verdugo back to LF. Renfroe is slightly pricey, but it would be in his best interests to take slightly less rather than being non-tendered. Both have the free agency motivation, and both are low-risk, one-year commitments.
Even if not necessarily the Red Sox, it is an interesting idea to keep them in the interest of getting value back by trading them. It’s a risky move, though, as you might not be able to find a proper buyer.
11 million for Renfroe?