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White Sox To Decline Option On Liam Hendriks

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The White Sox are declining their club option on right-hander Liam Hendriks, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Instead of retaining him for 2024 with a $15MM salary, they will pay him a $15MM buyout but spread over the next ten years in annual instalments of $1.5MM. The righty underwent Tommy John surgery in August and is likely to miss the 2024 season.

Hendriks, 35 in February, signed with the Sox going into 2021. The three-year deal came with a three-year, $54MM guarantee. He would make $39MM over the first three years, with the $15MM option/buyout for 2024. He continued to pitch well over the first two years of the deal, racking up 75 saves over those two seasons with a 2.66 ERA, 39.4% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate.

But 2023 provided Hendriks with some significant challenges. He was diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma in the offseason and had to miss the start of the year undergoing treatment. By the end of April, he was cancer free and began ramping up for a return to the club. He was activated in late May, making five appearances before landing on the injured list due to elbow inflammation, which eventually led him requiring Tommy John surgery.

Since he’s likely to miss the upcoming campaign, it’s understandable that the Sox would take the buyout. Though it’s the same amount as the salary of the option, it’s easier to pay it over 10 years than in one, especially with inflation reducing the value of currency over time. Also, there’s no injured list between the World Series and Spring Training, meaning Hendriks would require a roster spot all winter if the option were picked up. By taking the buyout, the Sox free up a spot for the coming months.

Now Hendriks will head to the open market and be free to sign with any club. Though he still has a lengthy rehab process in front of him, players in this situation often sign two-year deals. The players gets some cash to cover the rehab process while the club gets control over one post-rehab season.

Righty Tommy Kahnle signed one such contract when he and the Dodgers agreed to a two-year deal going into 2021. Kahnle was guaranteed $4.75MM plus incentives. He didn’t have the same track record as Hendriks and that winter’s market was generally deflated after the lost revenues of 2020, so it seems fair to expect Hendriks to be able to top that guarantee.

Craig Counsell Reportedly Looking To Reset Market For Managerial Salaries

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With Craig Counsell no longer under contract as manager of the Brewers and strong interest from other clubs, there has been much speculation about what factors he will be taking into account in deciding where to go for 2024. Per a report from Curt Hogg and Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, he is looking to reset the market for managers in terms of salary. Though the interest from the Mets will likely lead to a hefty offer, it seems he will give the Brewers a chance to match that figure.

Counsell is in high demand due to his successful track record as a skipper. He took over as the bench boss for Brewers when they were at a weak point and saw the results gradually improve in his first few seasons, winning 61, 73 and 86 games in his first three campaigns from 2015 to 2017. Since then, the club went on to qualify for the postseason in five of the past six years, despite the club generally having payrolls on the lower end of the league.

That success had garnered him interviews with the Mets and Guardians for their managerial vacancies. The Astros also have interest but it seems they are planning to take their time in their hiring process, which may prevent them from having a shot with Counsell. The fit with the Mets has been speculated upon since David Stearns left the Brewers to become president of baseball operations with the Mets. Given that Stearns and Counsell spent so much time working together, it’s been assumed by many that Stearns would poach Counsell and bring him to Queens.

Despite that outside interest, there would be logic to Counsell preferring to stay in Milwaukee, given his longstanding ties to the region. He grew up in Wisconsin and his father worked for the Brewers. Craig then spent part of his playing career with the club before his managerial career began.

Per the report from Hogg and Rosiak, Counsell is motivated by pushing the market forward in terms of manager salaries, particularly in smaller markets. Although Joe Torre once secured a salary of $8MM when managing the Yankees in the past, the market has apparently softened since then. It has been reported that Terry Francona had the highest salary of any manager in the league in 2023. Previous reports stated his contract with the Guardians had an average annual value of $4.5MM but Hogg and Rosiak relay that it was an even $5MM in 2023.

Counsell himself wasn’t too far off, getting $3.5MM from the Brewers in 2023, but he is now looking to “at least double” that figure next year, per Hogg and Rosiak. It wouldn’t be a shock if the Mets stepped up with the offer of $7MM that Counsell appears to be seeking. Owner Steve Cohen has quickly earned a spendthrift reputation since buying the Mets, seemingly to have little hesitation about plonking down money when he wants something.

But that may not be enough in this case. Per the report, Counsell will return to Milwaukee with whatever offer he has in hand and give the Brewers a chance to match it. If they are willing to do so, he will “almost certainly” stay in Milwaukee, but he doesn’t appear willing to take a hometown discount. The Brewers reportedly offered him a raise at the end of the season but it seems it wasn’t enough to prevent him from sniffing around and seeing what else is available to him.

Whether the Brewers will match the Mets is a fair question to ask. The club generally walks a fine line when it comes to payroll, occasionally having to make tough roster decisions based on money rather than targeting optimal on-field alignments. The most infamous example of this was the trade of Josh Hader, who was flipped to San Diego as his salary increased, with the club hoping the less-expensive Taylor Rogers could pick up the slack while other cheaper players bolstered other parts of the roster.

It has been speculated that another such trade could be coming this winter, with Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames each about to enter their respective final arbitration seasons with projected eight-figure salaries. Woodruff’s injury may complicate that matter, but the point remains that it may be tough for a penny-pinching club to have the most expensive manager in the league.

Resolution may not take much longer, as a decision is “likely” by the end of the general manager meetings, which run from November 7 to 9.

Dodgers Decline Option On Lance Lynn

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The Dodgers have declined their club option on right-hander Lance Lynn, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. They will pay him a $1MM buyout and send him to free agency instead of retaining him with an $18MM salary for 2024.

The move doesn’t come as a surprise, as Lynn just wrapped up the worst season of his career. He made 32 starts in 2023 between the White Sox and the Dodgers, switching teams in a trade prior to the deadline. His 23.6% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate were both around league average, but he was victimized by the long ball. He allowed an incredible 44 fly balls to go over the fence this past season, the most of any pitcher in the league and easily the highest tally of his career. Despite those struggles, the Dodgers’ rotation had been decimated by injuries and they sent Lynn to the mound in the playoffs. He started Game 3 of the NLDS against the Diamondbacks with two scoreless innings but allowed four home runs in the third, getting pulled before finishing that inning.

The Dodgers need starting pitching next year but it’s understandable they didn’t want to commit $17MM to Lynn just as the offseason is kicking off. After his poor results this year, he will likely have to settle for a lower salary than that. He may be able to top that number in total guarantee if he can find a multi-year deal, as even back-end veteran types can often get to eight figures on an annual basis.

Though the 2023 season was obviously rough and he turns 37 in May, Lynn will still have appeal as a bounceback candidate. He has a career ERA of 3.74 in a career that dates back to 2011. In each of the four seasons prior to 2023, he kept his ERA under 4.00. In that 2019 to 2022 stretch, he made 95 starts with a 3.42 ERA, 26.8% strikeout rate and 6.2% walk rate.

Veteran starters can often find decent contracts for themselves, even when the expectations of their production have waned. Zack Greinke got $13MM from the Royals going into 2022 and another $8.5MM going into 2023, his age-38 and age-39 seasons. Corey Kluber got $10MM from the Red Sox prior to 2023, even with questions around his health and effectiveness. 43-year-old Rich Hill got $8MM from the Pirates for 2023. Perhaps some club thinks they can get Lynn back on track or merely have him serve as an innings-eater, but he should be able to find a decent contract regardless.

As for the Dodgers, they go into the winter with plenty of question marks in their rotation. Lynn is now heading into free agency, joining Julio Urías and Clayton Kershaw. The latter has re-signed with the Dodgers many times but is slated for an uncertain road back from shoulder surgery. That leaves Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery, as well as a batch of guys with limited experience like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Ryan Pepiot, Gavin Stone and Michael Grove. There’s also Ryan Yarbrough in the mix but he’s a non-tender candidate.

The club has plenty of payroll space to work with and will likely be very active in free agency. They are expected to pursue two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani, though he won’t be pitching in 2024. The other top names on the pitching market will be Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery, with many others also available.

Mets To Exercise Club Option On Brooks Raley

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The Mets will be picking up their club option on left-hander Brooks Raley, retaining him for 2024 via a $6.5MM salary instead of taking the $1.25MM buyout, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

It’s not a surprising decision, as Raley has been an effective reliever for a few years now. The net $5.25MM price point is a perfectly reasonable amount to pay for a reliable left-handed reliever. He posted an earned run average of 2.80 across 66 appearances for the Mets this year. His 10.6% walk rate was on the high side but he struck out 25.8% of opponents and kept the ball on the ground at a 43% clip.

Raley spent 2015 to 2019 in Korea, pitching for the Lotte Giants of the KBO. He came back to North America and got a brief look with the Reds before getting flipped to the Astros. In 2021, He had an ERA of 4.78 for Houston but with encouraging underlying metrics. He struck out 31.7% of batters faced while walking 7.8%, but a 59.7% strand rate led to some extra runs crossing the plate. That’s why ERA estimators were far kinder, including a 3.27 FIP and a 2.91 SIERA.

Raley didn’t have six years of service after that season but reached free agency regardless, a common contractual stipulation given to players coming from playing overseas. That led to a two-year, $10MM deal with the Rays going into 2022. He then registered a 2.68 ERA for Tampa that year before getting flipped to the Mets prior to 2023.

As mentioned, Raley went on to have another solid season in 2023. He got some trade interest prior to the deadline, as the Mets were selling off pieces amid their disappointing season. He ultimately stayed and will now rejoin the Mets’ bullpen for 2024. As of now, he should be the top lefty in the relief corps, with Josh Walker the only other option on the 40-man. José Quintana, David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi are also left-handed and on the roster but they figure to be in the mix for rotation jobs, depending how the rest of the offseason plays out.

Padres Sign Ryan Carpenter To Minor League Deal

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The Padres have signed left-hander Ryan Carpenter to a minor league deal, per Evan Woodbery of MLive. The southpaw will presumably receive an invitation to Spring Training and compete for a roster spot.

Carpenter, 33, has a small amount of major league experience, having pitched for the Tigers in 2018 and 2019. He made 15 appearances, including 14 starts, logging 63 innings over those two seasons. Unfortunately, he allowed 8.57 earned runs per nine innings in that small sample and hasn’t been back to the big leagues since.

The lefty signed with the Rakuten Monkeys of the Chinese Professional Baseball League in Taiwan for 2020 and had a solid season for them. He tossed 157 1/3 innings over 26 appearances with an ERA of 4.00. That led to a deal with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization, which is generally considered to be a stronger league than the CPBL. He tossed 170 frames for the Eagles in 2021 with an ERA of 3.97.

Carpenter returned to the Eagles for 2022 but wasn’t able to make much impact, making just four appearances. He was released a couple of months into that season with reports of elbow soreness. Public details on what followed from there are sparse but he didn’t pitch anywhere in 2023. It’s possible that he required some sort of elbow procedure and spent the year rehabbing, though that is entirely speculative.

The Padres have plenty of rotation uncertainty at the moment and questions around their budget as well. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish give the club a strong duo at the top of their starting staff but Seth Lugo declined his player option and is now a free agent. Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez have complicated contract options but could follow Lugo out the door. Blake Snell will surely receive and turn down a qualifying offer and head to the open market himself, alongside midseason pickup Rich Hill.

The club will surely be looking to bolster the rotation but financial issues could perhaps limit how aggressive they are in signing free agents to accomplish that task. Carpenter figures to compete with internal options like Jay Groome, Pedro Avila, Matt Waldron and Adrián Morejón for a spot on the depth chart.

Yainer Diaz To Be Astros’ Primary Catcher In 2024

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Astros’ general manager Dana Brown spoke with KPRC 2 recently about the club’s priorities. He naturally listed bullpen as a target area with Phil Maton, Hector Neris and Ryne Stanek set to become free agents. He also said that the club will need a backup catcher for Yainer Diaz, who is going to be “the main guy next year.”

The Astros have been employing Martín Maldonado as their primary backstop in recent years, which certainly hasn’t been because of his bat. Though he had a nice showing at the plate in the shortened 2020 season, he has hit .183/.260/.333 in 1,212 plate appearances over the past three years. That amounts to a wRC+ of 66, indicating he was 34% worse than the league average hitter over that stretch.

Despite that tepid offense, he has been a valuable member of the Astros in that time thanks to his glovework and his handling of the pitching staff. But his defensive numbers slid a bit in 2023, hardly surprising since he is now 37 years old. With his contract now expiring, it seems the club is planning to move on.

That decision has been made easier by the emergence of Diaz, who had a breakout year in 2023. His 2.9% walk rate is quite low, but he also limited his strikeouts to a 19.6% rate. He launched 23 home runs and produced a line of .282/.308/.538 for a wRC+ of 127. Among catchers with at least 350 plate appearances for the year, only Sean Murphy had a higher wRC+ mark, with his 129 just two points ahead.

But with Maldonado behind the plate most days, a lot of that production took place while Diaz wasn’t catching. He did get 42 starts as the catcher but also 36 as the designated hitter and seven at first base. It’s hard to get meaningful data from that small sample of work behind the plate but, for what it’s worth, Statcast liked his blocking and work with the running game. However, each of Statcast, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus considered his framing to be subpar. Regardless of the details, the overall body of work was strong and it’s logical the club wants to give him the gig next year.

Diaz is only 25 so it’s entirely possible there’s still room to grow. He has just over a year of service time, meaning he won’t qualify for arbitration before the end of 2025 and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2028. Perhaps the club will face some challenges in moving from a respected veteran to a far younger catcher, but those concerns could be ameliorated somewhat by bringing in a veteran to support Diaz.

Maldonado could perhaps be that veteran, though it might be tough for the club to bring him back and then limit him to a part-time role. Other options on the free agent market include Austin Hedges, Yasmani Grandal, Victor Caratini and Tucker Barnhart. The trade market could feature guys like Jacob Stallings of the Marlins or Kyle Higashioka of the Yankees.

As Brown outlines, targeting bullpen help will be a logical move with Maton, Stanek and Neris headed for the open market. Neris actually has a player option and no decision has been publicly reported on that, but it sounds like Brown is expecting him to turn it down. That’s not surprising since Neris posted a 1.71 ERA in 2023. He won’t be able to sustain a .219 batting average on balls in play or 90.5% strand rate, which is why his 3.83 FIP and 3.89 SIERA were more than two runs above his ERA. But nonetheless, he recorded 31 holds and a couple of saves while striking out 28.2% of batters faced. It’s a net $7.5MM decision, with the option valued at $8.5MM with a $1MM buyout. He probably won’t be able to get his ERA under 2.00 again but he should still be able to beat that guarantee on the open market.

Brown noted that some of the replacements could be internal but they may look to make some moves this winter as well. Josh Hader is the top reliever available but there are also names like Jordan Hicks, Matt Moore, Reynaldo López, Robert Stephenson and many more.

Financially, the club may be walking a tricky line, unless they want to break their own tendencies. They have generally tried to stay under the competitive balance tax, which will have a base threshold of $237MM next year. The club is already at $231MM for next year, per the calculations of Roster Resource, though Neris opting out will drop that below $225MM. Adding a backup catcher and a reliever won’t necessarily break the bank, but it doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room if they want to stay under the tax again in 2024.

The Opener: Arlington Parade, Mets’ Manager, New Free Agents

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With the offseason ramping up, here are three things we’re monitoring heading into the weekend…

1. Parade in Arlington:

The first World Series title in Rangers’ history will be celebrated with a parade taking place today in Arlington. It’s set to kick off at 12:15 pm Central time, but local reporting indicates that some fans started lining up last night. If you’re planning on heading down, don’t delay.

2. Mets’ managerial vacancy:

Reporting from yesterday indicates that the Mets are narrowing the field in their managerial search with a hire perhaps being made soon. Craig Counsell, Carlos Mendoza and Mark Kotsay are thought to still be in the running at this point. Could the club have a new skipper by the time Monday rolls around?

3. Free agent pool growing:

The pool of available free agents grew by huge numbers yesterday as players and clubs began making decisions on contract options and opt-outs. Outfielder Jorge Soler, infielder/outfielder Whit Merrifield and right-hander Seth Lugo were some of the bigger names to hit the open market, but there were dozens of others. November 6 is the deadline for these decisions and for qualifying offers, with plenty of choices still to be made in the coming days.

Dodgers Sign Max Muncy To Two-Year Extension

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The Dodgers announced they’ve signed infielder Max Muncy to a two-year, $24MM extension. The deal also includes a $10MM club option for 2026. The contract overwrites a $14MM option that L.A. had on Muncy’s services for next season.

A client of Hub Sports Management, Muncy will reportedly receive a $5MM signing bonus. He’ll make a $7MM salary next season and $12MM in 2025, while the deal includes additional bonuses based on his plate appearance totals. The contract has a $12MM average annual value.

Muncy, 33, has spent the past six seasons in Los Angeles. Originally an unceremonious addition via minor league contract, he quickly developed into one of the Dodgers’ most important hitters. The lefty-swinging infielder has reached the 35-homer mark in four of the five full schedules. He popped 36 longballs this past season, tying with Jorge Soler for 12th in the majors in that regard.

That power production comes with one of the sport’s more extreme offensive approaches. Muncy is a prototypical three true outcomes hitter. He pairs the home runs with an extremely patient plate approach. The deep counts translate to plenty of walks, as he has drawn a free pass in 15% of his career plate appearances. Yet he’s also prone to strikeouts and runs very low averages on balls in play thanks to a fly-ball heavy swing.

As a result, Muncy has one of the lower batting averages among everyday players. He hit .212/.333/.475 through 579 trips to the plate this past season. That’s on the heels of a .196/.329/.384 showing. Over the last two years, the two-time All-Star sports a .204/.331/.430 line in a little more than 1100 trips to the plate.

That isn’t quite as impressive as Muncy’s production over his first few seasons in Southern California. The overall offensive production is still clearly above-average, however. Muncy’s 118 wRC+ this year indicates he was 18 percentage points better than an average batter. The front office clearly values his contributions, as they’ve now signed him to three separate extensions.

Muncy has a decent amount of experience at first and second base. He spent the entire ’23 campaign at third base, logging a personal-high 1052 innings there. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average estimated he was between three and five runs below par at the hot corner. That’s hardly disastrous but aligns with his reputation as a bat-first player.

As he gets into his mid-30s, that profile seems likely to skew increasingly towards offense. Whether Muncy sees another 120+ starts at third base may well be determined by the Dodgers’ subsequent offseason moves. Freddie Freeman is locked in at first base. The club should welcome Gavin Lux back from the ACL tear that cost him all of 2023, likely securing second base. Miguel Vargas, Michael Busch and Chris Taylor are among the possibilities for third base reps, although Muncy is clearly above that group on the depth chart.

The designated hitter role will be one of the stories of the offseason. L.A. will see J.D. Martinez hit free agency in the coming days, although they could make him a qualifying offer. They’re sure to make a run at Shohei Ohtani, a potential addition that would push Muncy back to third base.

Even with this deal in place, the Dodgers have plenty of breathing room financially. Roster Resource projected the 2024 payroll around $127MM before this extension. That’ll sit a little under $140MM now, well below this year’s $223MM Opening Day estimate. The $12MM AAV pushes their luxury tax projection to roughly $155MM. That’s more than $80MM south of next year’s $237MM base threshold.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Dodgers and Muncy were seriously discussing a two-year extension. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first suggested the deal was agreed upon. Murray had the specific salary breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

A’s Decline Option On Drew Rucinski

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The Athletics are declining a $5MM option on right-hander Drew Rucinski, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link). That was the expected decision.

Oakland signed Rucinski to a $3MM guarantee last offseason. It was a low-cost flier after the 34-year-old had turned in a 2.97 ERA with the Korea Baseball Organization’s NC Dinos. Injuries derailed his effort to establish himself as an MLB starter. Rucinski made only four starts, allowing 22 runs (18 earned) across 18 innings. He walked 14 while striking out just six.

Rucinski landed on the injured list in mid-May. The team announced the problem as a stomach illness. A bit thereafter, the team announced he was dealing with a degenerative back condition. Rucinski underwent a surgical procedure in July. Alexander notes the rehab is expected to carry into 2024, leaving it unclear when he might be able to take the mound.

Pirates Place Miguel Andujar, Angel Perdomo On Waivers

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The Pirates have placed outfielder Miguel Andújar and reliever Angel Perdomo on outright waivers, reports Alex Stumpf of DK Pittsburgh Sports. They join righty Yerry De Los Santos as Pittsburgh players known to be on the waiver wire. Both Andújar and Perdomo will become free agents if they aren’t claimed.

Pittsburgh ran Andújar through waivers twice this past season. The former Rookie of the Year runner-up got into 30 big league contests, hitting .250/.300/.476 with four home runs across 90 plate appearances. He had a very strong offensive showing at Triple-A Indianapolis, running a .338/.404/.536 line while connecting on 16 home runs in 103 games. Andújar walked at a strong 10.1% clip and struck out only 11.8% of the time.

The 28-year-old hasn’t found much major league success since his excellent 2018 debut with the Yankees, however. Paired with questions about his defensive profile, he has fallen into a depth role. With a projected $2.2MM arbitration salary, he looked a very likely non-tender.

Perdomo, a 6’8″ southpaw, made 30 appearances for the Bucs this year. He posted a 3.72 ERA with a massive 37.6% strikeout rate across 29 innings. Perdomo looked as if he’d stake a claim to a spot in the Pittsburgh bullpen before landing on the injured list with season-ending elbow discomfort in August.

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