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Ke’Bryan Hayes Lifting Baseballs, Self

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Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes has been a useful player in his career, despite his offense.

Coming into 2023, he had hit just 18 home runs in 256 games. His 8.4% walk rate was close to average, but he wasn’t producing enough power to really be valuable at the plate. His .261/.326/.386 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 95, indicating he was 5% below league average offensively overall. Subtract his blazing hot 2020 debut and you’re left with a line of .249/.315/.356 over 2021 and 2022 for a wRC+ of just 86. But he stole 30 bases in the 2020-2022 stretch and got excellent defensive grades across the board. Despite the slightly subpar offense, he was worth 6.6 wins above replacement in that time.

Although he was still a solid contributor prior to this year, there were reasons to believe he was capable of more. Last year, his average exit velocity was in the 85th percentile among qualified hitters, per Statcast, with his hard hit rate 84th. The reason his raw skills weren’t translating into results was largely due to pounding the ball into the ground. Hayes had a 52% ground ball rate over 2020-2022, well beyond league average, which has usually been around 42 or 43% in recent seasons.

The Pirates clearly had faith that he could tap into something more, as they signed him to an eight-year, $70MM extension going into the 2022 campaign, the largest contract in franchise history at that time.

Here in 2023, Hayes has seemingly taken some steps forward with the ground ball issue. His grounder rate is down to 42.3%, which is just barely better than the 42.5% league average this year but almost a 10-point improvement over his previous work. Getting under the ball more has naturally led to improved power output. He already has 13 homers this year in 111 games, a far better pace than the 18 he hit in 256 games prior to 2023.

The results are even better if we focus just on the second half. Hayes went on the injured list twice this summer due to back issues. Since being activated on August 1, he’s taken 159 trips to the plate and is hitting .297/.342/.552 for a wRC+ of 133. He has a 40.2% ground ball rate in that time and eight of his 13 homers have been hit in that stretch as well.

That is a very small sample of less than two months, but it has to be incredibly encouraging for Hayes and the Pirates. They don’t spend a lot of money, which means that it’s important for them to get value out of the money that they do spend. Hayes has a solid floor with his speed and defense, but becoming an above-average hitter could make him into a superstar. His offense on the season as a whole is still just shy of league average, wRC+ of 98, but he’s been worth 2.7 fWAR thanks to the speed and defense. If he can maintain even a small amount of his recent offensive surge, he would push that even farther next year. He’s still just 26 years old and could still be tapping into his potential, with six more guaranteed years remaining on his deal, along with a club option for 2030.

The Pirates still have a tall hill to climb in order to return to contention. The Brewers are perennial contenders. The Reds are loaded with young talent. The Cubs are in strong position. The Cardinals are sure to be aggressive in moving past this down year. The Bucs still have plenty of questions about their middle infield and pitching staff, but they should be able to count on solid production from the hot corner for the rest of the decade, and maybe even more.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rockies Outright Cole Tucker

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For the second time this season, Rockies infielder/outfielder Cole Tucker went unclaimed on waivers and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Albuquerque, per the transaction log at MiLB.com. Tucker was designated for assignment earlier in the week. Because he’s already been outrighted once, he’ll have the option of rejecting this assignment in favor of free agency.

The 27-year-old Tucker joined the Rockies on a minor league deal over the winter and has twice been selected to the Majors, though he’s only tallied 10 plate appearances (during which he’s gone 4-for-8 with a walk and a hit by pitch). He’s spent the rest of the season in Albuquerque, where’s he’s appeared in 70 games and batted .280/.391/.407 in 321 plate appearances.

Selected by the Pirates with the No. 24 overall pick back in 2014, Tucker was considered one of Pittsburgh’s top prospects for the better part of five years but has yet to put things together in the Majors. He’s played in 159 big league games and tallied 479 plate appearances across parts of five seasons, but he has just a .216/.266/.318 batting line to show for it. His .250/.350/.382 batting line in four Triple-A campaigns is a clear improvement but still doesn’t stand out in and of itself. Tucker had top-of-the-scale sprint speed when he debuted in 2019 (90th percentile of MLB players, per Statcast). He’s slowed a bit, dropping from an average of 28.8 feet per second to 28.3 ft/sec, but that’s still good enough to rank in the 75th percentile of MLB players.

Tucker has primarily been a shortstop in his professional career, with more than 5500 innings at the position (including his minor league work). The Pirates and Rockies began bouncing him to other positions in recent years in order to improve his versatility. He’s since logged at least 375 innings at each of second base, center field and right field, with briefer stints at first base, third base and in left field.

The Opener: Jones, Cy Young Races, NL Wild Card Scene

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the baseball world this weekend…

1. Adam Jones honored in Baltimore:

The Orioles announced late last month that longtime Baltimore star Adam Jones will formally retire as a member of the O’s on Sept. 15. Jones will be honored in a pre-game at Camden Yards tonight, giving Baltimore fans that rooted him on as the heart and soul of many contending O’s clubs — and throughout his heroics for Team USA in the 2017 World Baseball Classic — to bid farewell to a franchise favorite. Jones made five All-Star teams, won four Gold Gloves and captured a Silver Slugger Award as an Oriole. From 2008-18, the center fielder played in 1613 games as an Oriole, batting .279/.319/.459 with 263 home runs and 90 steals. He helped fuel postseason runs in 2012, 2014 and 2016 and played a major role in the Orioles being one of the American League’s winningest teams during his peak years in Baltimore. Following an 11-year stretch with the O’s, Jones played a year with the D-backs (2019) and spent two seasons (2020-21) with the Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, but he’ll always be remembered as an Oriole.

2. Cy Young candidates on the hill:

There are still multiple viable Cy Young candidates in both the American League and National League, and this weekend’s slate of games will see several of them take the hill as they make one of their final cases for that hardware. Friday will see American League innings (187) and ERA (2.79) leader Gerrit Cole take the mound against his former team in Pittsburgh. Minnesota’s Sonny Gray, who ranks second in the AL with a 2.96 ERA, will take Sunday against the visiting White Sox. His teammate Pablo Lopez — fourth in innings pitched, seventh in ERA, second in strikeout rate and riding a blistering second-half hot streak (1.89 ERA) — will look to continue his own late bid Saturday against the ChiSox. Astros lefty Framber Valdez, second in innings (181 2/3) and fifth in ERA (3.32) will host the Royals on Sunday.

In the National League, Cubs lefty Justin Steele (2.49 ERA) will be on the bump for tonight’s game against the Diamondbacks. He ranks just 15th in the NL in innings pitched but is second to Blake Snell in ERA among qualified hurlers. Baseball’s innings leader, Logan Webb (193), could cross the 200-frame threshold today versus the Rockies and will look to drop his fifth-ranked 3.40 earned run average in an ominous Coors Field setting.

3. The wild NL Wild Card chase:

The National League Wild Card race is as tightly contested as it’s been at any point this season, with each of the D-backs, Reds and Giants in a three-way tie for the third and final spot. That trio of teams is 2.5 games behind the Cubs for the second spot. As it happens, the D-backs and Cubs are set to kick off a three-game series this weekend that’ll be particularly pivotal for Arizona, where the Diamondbacks’ playoff odds have dwindled after a torrid start to the season. A D-backs sweep could flip the script and catapult them into the second Wild Card spot, whereas a series defeat or sweep at the hands of the Cubs could be a backbreaker for their playoff hopes.

Both Cincinnati and San Francisco will take on teams with losing records, as the Reds play host to the Mets and the Giants visit the Rockies at Coors Field. San Francisco’s weekend series will be particularly notable with regard to the playoff race, as they’ll play a doubleheader tomorrow to make up for yesterday’s rainout.

The Marlins, meanwhile, are just half a game behind the Reds, D-backs and Giants — but they’re in for the toughest challenge in baseball this weekend as they tangle with a juggernaut Braves club that is currently 46 games over the .500 mark with a staggering +239 run differential.

There’s enough time left on the schedule that this weekend won’t completely determine the postseason field, but we’ve reached the point in the calendar where every series — in some cases every individual games — can swing the playoff odds in significant fashion.

Red Sox Fire Chaim Bloom

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The Red Sox announced Thursday that they have fired chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. The Sox also announced that general manager Brian O’Halloran has been offered a “new senior leadership position within the baseball operations department,” further signaling a major change in the organization’s structure. O’Halloran and assistant GMs Eddie Romero, Raquel Ferreira and Michael Groopman will oversee baseball operations for the time being, but the Sox added that a search for a new baseball operations leader will begin immediately.

“While parting ways is not taken lightly, today signals a new direction for our club,” principal owner John Henry said in a statement within the press release. “Our organization has significant expectations on the field and while Chaim’s efforts in revitalizing our baseball infrastructure have helped set the stage for the future, we will today begin a search for new leadership. Everyone who knows Chaim has a deep appreciation and respect for the kind of person he is. His time with us will always be marked by his professionalism, integrity, and an unwavering respect for our club and its legacy.”

Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy said in the aftermath of Bloom’s dismissal that the Red Sox plan to conduct a “broader search” that “could take awhile” and that there are no preconceived plans to hire a more experienced candidate or another younger, first-time baseball ops leader (both links via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). Notably, Speier adds that Kennedy took the additional step of specifically calling out that he “can rule out [former Red Sox GM] Theo Epstein as a candidate.”

Originally hired to the post in October 2019, Bloom has overseen baseball operations for the Sox for the past four seasons. While Bloom’s Red Sox enjoyed a 92-win season in 2021 and took the Astros to six games in the ALCS that year, it’s been a largely disappointing four years for the Sox otherwise. Boston followed up that ALCS showing with a 78-84 record the following season and is currently at 73-72 with no viable path to a postseason berth.

Hired away from the division-rival Rays, where he’d paired with since-promoted president Erik Neander to oversee the baseball operations department, Bloom was long billed as a future general manager/president of baseball ops himself. His arrival in Boston followed the similarly timed firing of current Phillies president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski, who’d brought a World Series title to Boston in 2018 but endured a difficult 2019 season that ultimately cost him his job.

The hiring of Bloom, a young executive from a Rays organization widely viewed as one of the game’s model organizations, represented a departure from the experienced Dombrowski, who’s now led baseball ops for four different organizations and got his start in baseball ops way back in 1978. The Rays are admired throughout the industry for their nearly unrivaled player development expertise and the manner in which they’re able to maintain an elite farm system and competitive club while simultaneously operating under some of the sport’s most stringent payroll limitations from ownership.

The Red Sox have indeed built up their farm system under Bloom, but it’s come at the expense of results at the MLB level. Boston’s free-agent additions under Bloom have been a mixed bag, at best. The 2023 additions of Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Chris Martin and Adam Duvall have all been strong moves, as was last year’s low-cost pickup of Michael Wacha. However, the six-year deal for Trevor Story hasn’t panned out at all as hoped thus far. And while Masataka Yoshida has hit better than many anticipated when he signed a five-year, $90MM contract, he’s cooled after a strong start and turned in shaky defensive ratings that have muted his overall value. Meanwhile, free-agent deals for James Paxton, Corey Kluber, Martin Perez and Garrett Richards over the years  haven’t helped the rotation as hoped.

Of course, the successful signings in and of themselves are a two-sided coin as well. The decision to buy low on Wacha proved savvy, but the Sox balked at bringing him back on a multi-year deal this winter and instead signed Kluber to a one-year pact that didn’t yield the intended results (7.04 ERA in 55 innings). The Sox also let Nathan Eovaldi depart rather than make him a multi-year offer, and while they received a compensatory pick after he signed in Texas, Eovaldi has been one of the American League’s best pitchers this season and would’ve found himself in the Cy Young conversation were it not for a recent six-week stay on the injured list.

Even that draft pick compensation the Sox received for the departures of Eovaldi and Xander Bogaerts were reduced due to some questionable front office dealings. The 2022 Red Sox tried to thread the needle between shedding salary and remaining competitive at that year’s trade deadline. While Boston traded Christian Vazquez and shed Jake Diekman’s salary, they also held onto Eovaldi, Wacha, J.D. Martinez and Rich Hill — all impending free agents — and acquired Tommy Pham. The result was a payroll that landed just a few million dollars north of the luxury tax threshold, thereby diminishing the comp picks for Bogaerts and Eovaldi. Teams that don’t pay the luxury tax receive comp picks after Competitive Balance Round B (typically around the 75th selection in the draft, give or take a few places). As a tax payor, the Sox instead received selections between the fourth and fifth round of the draft for that pair of veterans.

More recent dealings aside, Bloom will likely always be remembered — fairly or not — as the Red Sox’ baseball ops leader who oversaw the trade of Mookie Betts to Los Angeles. The trade of Betts was undoubtedly driven to some (likely significant) extent by ownership, and at the time of the swap Betts had steadfastly pledged to test the free-agent market. That didn’t prove to be the case, as Betts instead signed a 12-year, $365MM contract that stands as the largest amount of new money ever promised to a player at the time of his signing. (Mike Trout already had $66.5MM remaining on his contract when he signed a $360MM extension with the Angels.)

It’s arguable that Bloom deserves the benefit of the doubt, as any extension offers to Betts were always going to be ownership’s final call, and he had no impact or way of controlling whether Betts would ultimately put pen to paper with the Dodgers following a trade. Still, as the head of baseball operations, it’s incumbent to acquire the best return possible, and to this point the package the Sox received for a player who remains in perennial contention for MVP voting has simply hasn’t aligned with Betts’ value.

Alex Verdugo has stepped into the outfield in Betts’ place and developed into a solid regular. More than three years after the trade, Connor Wong has had a decent season as Boston’s primary catcher. Infield prospect Jeter Downs has since been designated for assignment and is no longer in the organization. Perhaps Wong can yet take his game to another level, but it’s been an underwhelming return for a player of Betts’ caliber — even if he had just one year of club control remaining at the time.

To Bloom’s credit, the Red Sox have that excellent 2021 season under his watch, and the farm system is currently in excellent shape. Baseball America graded it as the fifth-best system in baseball as of last month, although MLB.com was more bearish, pegging the Sox 16th. Prospects like Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, Kyle Teel and Ceddanne Rafaela (who debuted this month) all rank within the top 100 prospects in the game. While 24-year-old Brayan Bello, like Rafaela, was signed by the prior regime, his development into a quality big league starter has been largely overseen by Bloom’s staff. And while Betts, Bogaerts and other great players have walked out the door during Bloom’s tenure, he was also the baseball operations lead when the Sox inked Rafael Devers to a historic $313.5MM extension (although just as ownership surely played a substantial role in the Betts trade, that’s surely true of the Devers deal as well).

It’s worth noting that the Red Sox have seemingly been reluctant to push payroll to the same heights as in years past; Bloom’s Sox topped out at $206MM in Opening Day payroll (2022) and were closer to $180MM in 2021 and 2023. Conversely, the Sox were at $233MM and $236MM during the final two years of Dombrowski’s tenure. Relative to the rest of the league, Boston has been in the top half of spenders since Bloom’s hiring but never placing inside the top five — where they resided each season from 2004 to 2019.

Bloom’s experience in making value-oriented moves on the margins of the roster in Tampa Bay perhaps appealed to Sox ownership as they sought to curtail some of their previously aggressive spending levels, but it always felt odd to see a team with Boston’s financial might making head-scratching moves like extending Rob Refsnyder in May or swapping out Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr. in order to acquire some mid-range prospects from the Brewers.

As with any president or general manager, Bloom’s tenure will ultimately consist of notable wins and painful whiffs. In this instance, Sox ownership felt that the former had outweighed the latter by too great a margin, and they’ll now embark on a search for their fourth baseball operations leader since Theo Epstein’s departure prior to the 2012 season. Only the Angels have gone through that same number of GM changes in that same window.

Giants’ Chairman: Zaidi/Kapler Will Return In 2024

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Giants chairman Greg Johnson has gone on record a few times to express his support for the club’s baseball operations leadership. He reiterated that sentiment this evening, telling Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler “will both be (in San Francisco) next year.”

It has been a streaky season for the Giants, who remain right on the edge of contention with two and a half weeks to go. San Francisco sits at 75-71, percentage points above the Diamondbacks and Reds for the last Wild Card spot in the National League. The Giants had gotten as high as 13 games above .500 shortly after the All-Star Break but are just 26-30 in the second half overall. That knocked them out of the playoff picture for a bit, though a recent 5-1 stretch coinciding with cold spells for a few teams above them has put the Giants back in a solid spot.

They’re looking for what would be the second playoff appearance of the Zaidi/Kapler era. Zaidi has been running baseball operations since the 2018-19 offseason; Kapler took over as skipper one year later. They stepped into a transitional period before a shocking 107-win campaign to snap the Dodgers’ streak of NL West titles with one of the best years in franchise history. L.A. vanquished the Giants in the Division Series, and San Francisco has been an average team since that point. They were exactly .500 last year and aren’t far above that mark this season.

San Francisco tried for an impact acquisition last offseason. Their pursuit of Aaron Judge came up short, while the Carlos Correa physical led that agreement to fall through. The Correa saga came after most of the other top free agents were off the board, leading San Francisco to pivot to the volume approach that has defined most of their past few winters. Signings of Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling have all yielded middling results in their first seasons, though the addition of Taylor Rogers has mostly worked as anticipated.

The leadership’s track record goes well beyond this past offseason, of course. Prior acquisitions of Thairo Estrada, J.D. Davis and LaMonte Wade Jr. have all been strong low-cost additions. Wilmer Flores has provided four years of quality production since signing in free agency headed into 2020. They’ve felt the effects of missing out on a star position player — particularly as the offense has gone cold in the second half — though the lack of long-term payroll commitments could embolden them to make legitimate runs at Shohei Ohtani or Cody Bellinger this offseason.

Both Zaidi and Kapler are believed to be under contract for next year. Kapler signed an extension running through the ’24 campaign following their standout 2021 season (in which he was named NL Manager of the Year). Zaidi’s contract was a five-year guarantee that spanned through this year, though it also included a team option for the ’24 season. Slusser characterizes that provision more as a team opt-out clause which the organization bypassed when it was available to them a few months ago. Regardless of the specifics, it’s clear both Zaidi and Kapler will return — though they’d each enter the season in lame duck status unless they sign longer-term extensions over the winter.

Marlins Planning To Pursue Shortstop Help This Winter

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The Marlins are still in the middle of a playoff race in 2023 but there’s at least one thing already on their to-do list this winter. Per a report from Barry Jackson, Jordan McPherson and Craig Mish at the Miami Herald, the Marlins are planning to try to upgrade at shortstop this winter.

The plan is a fairly logical one, as most of their playing time at that position has gone to Joey Wendle, who is an impending free agent. The club would likely be considering alternatives at short even if he weren’t bound for the open market, given his poor season. The 33-year-old has hit a meager .222/.257/.323 this year, which translates to a wRC+ of 54. That indicates he has been 46% worse than the league average hitter. Among those with at least 250 plate appearances this year, only eight hitters have a lower wRC+ than Wendle.

He’s still considered strong with the glove by Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, but his Outs Above Average dropped to -3 this year. “It’s been a challenging year for me,” Wendle says in the report. “I’m more frustrated than anybody else about it. Just been unable to make some adjustments.”

With Wendle set to depart, the Marlins will be left with internal options like Jon Berti, Garrett Hampson and Jacob Amaya. Berti has hit .253/.330/.354 in his career and is at .278/.316/.355 this year. He can provide value with his legs, having stolen 41 bases last year, but that’s down to just 14 so far this season. He’s generally considered a strong defender all over the field but his subpar bat makes him a better fit for a utility role off the bench than an everyday shortstop.

It’s a fairly similar story for Hampson. He’s having decent results here in 2023 but his .398 batting average on balls in play is giving him a boost. His career batting line of .242/.303/.375 amounts to a wRC+ of 70. He’s also considered strong with the glove but is best suited to a multi-positional gig.

Amaya made his major league debut this year but got into just four games. He’s hit .254/.344/.409 at Triple-A this year for a wRC+ of 89, or 11% below the average at that level. He still has one option year remaining after this one and could be kept in the minors as depth if the club doesn’t think he’s ready for a lengthier big league audition. There’s no obvious solution deeper in the system, with prospects like Yiddi Cappe and Nasim Nuñez having poor years at the plate in the minors.

Given all those factors, it makes sense that the Marlins will look for exterior solutions, but there will be challenges in doing so. The upcoming free agent class is light on position players and the crop of shortstops is no exception. Amed Rosario is one of the top options, though his defensive marks are quite poor and he’s also having a down year at the plate. Each of Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average have put a negative sign on his shortstop defense this year. He’s shown some offensive prowess in the past but is hitting just .259/.300/.374 this year for a wRC+ of 85.

Beyond him, the options include utility/depth guys like Gio Urshela, Paul DeJong, Nick Ahmed and others. Tim Anderson could be available if the White Sox turn down his option, but that’s no guarantee and the only reason it’s possible is that he’s also having a poor season. He’s hitting just .240/.284/.294 for a wRC+ of 59 with subpar defensive marks across the board.

Turning to the trade market would be another option, but everyday shortstops tend to be highly valued and aren’t easily surrendered. The Orioles and Guardians have plenty of young infielders but the best ones would likely be close to untouchable, leaving the Marlins to choose from unproven options. Ha-Seong Kim has been moved to second base by the Padres signing Xander Bogaerts, but he is having a quietly excellent year and likely wouldn’t come cheap. He’s also only a short-term solution, with 2024 being the final guaranteed year of his contract. Players like Vaughn Grissom, Maikel Garcia and Tommy Edman are theoretical trade candidates since they are blocked on their respective clubs, but they don’t have to be traded since they can each be moved to other positions. Even if anyone in this group is available, the Marlins would likely be competing with other clubs in need of shortstop help, such as the Giants or Dodgers.

Regardless of the difficulty, the Marlins will have to come up with solutions if they have designs on competing again next year. Their shortstops this season have hit a collective .232/.267/.317 for a wRC+ of 56, the worst offensive production in the league.

A’s Relocation Vote Reportedly Set For November

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Major League Baseball’s owners will vote on the A’s relocation application during owners meetings scheduled for November, reports Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. Neither the team nor MLB have announced the news.

The A’s relocation proposal has been in the committee stage. A three-person ownership contingent of Mark Attanasio (Brewers), John Middleton (Phillies) and John Sherman (Royals) has been reviewing the application. They’ll soon make recommendations to the league and an executive council, which will then relay its own findings to all 30 ownership groups.

November’s vote among the ownership groups is decisive. The A’s will need approval from 75% to finalize their relocation. It is generally seen as a fait accompli that they’ll be approved, likely by unanimous vote. If/when that happens, they’ll officially begin their move to Las Vegas.

Akers writes that construction of the A’s $1.5 billion retractable roof facility at the site of the current Tropicana hotel (which would be demolished and rebuilt at an adjacent site) is tentatively scheduled for early 2025. The plan is for the stadium to be ready by the start of the 2028 season.

It remains unclear where the A’s would play in the intervening years. Their lease at the Oakland Coliseum runs through the end of next season. They don’t have plans finalized for 2025-27. A’s brass has floated the possibility of a short-term lease extension at the Coliseum, though it’s not clear whether Oakland would have any interest in that arrangement. Other speculated possibilities to bridge the gap include playing at their Triple-A ballpark (also in Vegas) or sharing Oracle Park with the Giants.

Marlins Outright Daniel Castano

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The Marlins have sent left-hander Daniel Castano outright to Triple-A Jacksonville, according to the transactions log at MLB.com. He was unclaimed on waivers after being designated for assignment on Tuesday.

Castano has made two appearances for Miami on the year, allowing eight runs over three innings. The 28-year-old southpaw has pitched for the Fish in four straight seasons, topping out at 35 2/3 frames a year ago. He has a career 4.47 ERA over 24 appearances, 17 of which have been starts. While his 12.4% strikeout rate is well below-average, he has generally thrown strikes and kept the ball on the ground when given opportunities as a depth starter.

This is the third time this year in which the Fish have sent Castano through waivers. He accepted the previous stint and has started eight of 16 contests in a swing capacity with Jacksonville. Over 57 2/3 innings there, he owns a 4.06 ERA with average strikeout and walk marks (22.4% and 8.9%, respectively). The Baylor product has allowed 4.02 earned runs per nine through 170 career innings at the top minor league level.

As a player with multiple career outrights, Castano has the ability to elect free agency. It isn’t clear whether he’ll do so. He’d reach minor league free agency at the start of the offseason unless the Marlins add him back to the 40-man roster regardless, so he could choose to stick in Jacksonville as multi-inning depth for the season’s final couple weeks.

Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: Shortstop

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With the regular season winding down, a number of teams (and their fanbases) are already starting to turn their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking an early look at the players who’ll be available on the open market.

As we continue around the diamond, we’ll finish up the infield at its most demanding position. It’s an exceptionally thin group, a marked contrast to the star-studded classes of the last two offseasons. There have been eight nine-figure deals for shortstops since 2021 (not including the contract for Marcus Semien, who stayed at second base despite shortstop interest). Not only will no one in this year’s group approach that range, there aren’t many candidates for a multi-year contract of any sort.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

Potential Everyday Options

Rosario has been a shortstop for the bulk of his career, but the Dodgers have played him more frequently at second base since adding him at the deadline. One of the youngest players in the entire free agent class, Rosario hits the market coming off a down year. He was a roughly league average hitter from 2021-22 but has slumped to a .259/.300/.374 line over 520 plate appearances. He’s hitting for more power in Los Angeles than he had with the Guardians — largely because the Dodgers have more selectively deployed him in favorable platoon situations — but has reached base at just a .278 clip with L.A.

The righty-swinging Rosario has performed well against left-handed pitching throughout his career. He’s a well below-average offensive player versus righties. Some teams may prefer to keep him in more of a short side platoon role, but the middle infield class is weak enough that he figures to land an everyday job somewhere.

That may be better suited at second base. Rosario has gotten serviceable grades from public defensive marks in a minute sample of 162 innings at the keystone. His much-longer track record at shortstop isn’t as rosy. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have pegged him as a below-average defender throughout his nearly 7000 career innings at the position. The numbers are particularly poor this year, as he’s rated anywhere between 10 and 16 runs below par by those metrics. His raw error count is 10th-highest at the position.

It’s admittedly a stretch to consider Urshela a possible everyday player at shortstop. He’s soon to turn 32, has been a third baseman for the bulk of his career, and suffered a season-ending pelvis fracture in June. If he’s going to play regularly at any one spot next year, it’s likelier to be on the corner infield.

Urshela is one of the more well-rounded players among potential shortstop options, though. He has been an above-average hitter as recently as 2022, when he posted a .285/.338/.429 line for the Yankees. His power disappeared in his limited run with the Angels, but he hit .299 and got on base at a .329 clip in 62 games. He makes plenty of contact and typically hits for high enough averages to post solid on-base marks without drawing many walks. In a typical offseason, he probably wouldn’t be a viable shortstop target. Perhaps the scarcity of other options this winter makes that a more realistic possibility.

Utility Options

Hernández got a shot as the Red Sox’ starting shortstop to begin the season. He’d never really had consistent run at the position before. The Sox gambled on Hernández’s plus defensive marks at other key positions translating, but the experiment didn’t work out. He’s tied for fourth with 14 errors at shortstop, and the three players with higher totals have nearly or more than double the innings. Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average weren’t much kinder.

As a result, the Sox began to move Hernández back to his customary utility role — which has continued since a deadline trade to the Dodgers. He can still handle shortstop on occasion but seems better suited for second base or center field. He’s also amidst a second straight well below-average offensive season, hitting .236/.294/.353 over 469 plate appearances. Things have turned around since the trade. After posting a .222/.279/.320 line in Boston, he owns a .267/.329/.427 slash through 146 plate appearances in L.A. He’ll likely land another guaranteed deal but seems hard-pressed to match the $10MM salary he received from the Red Sox last September.

Kiner-Falefa has started just one game at shortstop for the Yankees this season, logging the rest of his at-bats over the three outfield positions and at the hot corner. He topped 1000 shortstop innings in both 2021 and ’22, though, drawing decent enough defensive grades that teams could consider moving him back there considering the shallowness of the class overall.

The righty-hitting Kiner-Falefa is a middling offensive player. He puts the ball in play without much impact and runs below-average walk totals. He’s a contact-hitting utility option who owns a .253/.312/.333 mark since landing in New York alongside Josh Donaldson shortly after the lockout.

Wendle has bounced around the infield throughout his career, seeing the bulk of his time between second and third base. The Marlins pushed him up the defensive spectrum as part of their effort to improve the offense out of the infield. Wendle has logged a career-high 708 1/3 innings at the position, a rare gambit for a player in his age-33 season. Defensive metrics have rated him as a fine option, ranging from slightly below-par (-2 runs per Statcast) to a bit above average (+5 DRS).

While he has acquitted himself well enough with the glove, Wendle hasn’t hit at all. He owns a .222/.257/.323 line with just two homers over 299 trips to the plate. He’s hitting just .243/.279/.343 in 204 games since being dealt from the Rays to the Marlins over the 2021-22 offseason.

Rebound Fliers

It’s increasingly hard to envision Mondesi playing at all this season. He has encountered repeated setbacks since tearing the ACL in his left knee while playing for the Royals in April 2022. The former top prospect has shown elite speed and promising switch-hitting power potential at times, but injuries have kept him from topping 500+ MLB plate appearances in a season. He has only surpassed the 300-PA mark once. Even when healthy, Mondesi’s tantalizing physical tools have been undercut by an overaggressive approach that has led to a meager .280 career on-base percentage.

DeJong had started the season reasonably well for the Cardinals, at least showing some power that had disappeared during his 2020-22 struggles. As the year has gone on, his production has plummeted. DeJong owned a .233/.297/.412 line at the deadline, when he was flipped from St. Louis to Toronto. He’s hitting .133/.132/.189 with 34 strikeouts and no walks in 91 plate appearances since then. He was released by the Jays within a few weeks and hasn’t fared better since catching on with the Giants. DeJong is still a good defender, but he owns a .200/.273/.351 slash in nearly 1200 plate appearances over the last four years.

Glove-First Veteran Depth

Ahmed was recently released by the Diamondbacks after a 10-year run in the desert. One of the sport’s best defenders at his peak, he secured two Gold Gloves and tallied double-digit home run totals in 2018-19. Ahmed has never been a good hitter, but he was sufficiently productive at the dish to serve as a fine bottom-of-the-lineup regular when paired with his elite glove. The offense has collapsed over the past three seasons, though, as he’s hitting .219/.272/.336 since the start of 2021. He lost most of last year to a shoulder injury that required surgery and posted a .212/.257/.303 slash before being let go this summer. Ahmed can still defend at a high level, but he’ll probably have to move into a utility role at this point of his career.

Andrus has gotten into 101 games for the White Sox this season. He’s hitting .254/.312/.353 with five longballs across 363 plate appearances. That’s more in line with the numbers he posted from 2018-21, making last year’s 17-homer showing look like a blip. Andrus is still a good baserunner and can play either middle infield spot, but he’s better suited for a utility role than regular playing time at this stage of his career.

Crawford is struggling through the worst season of his 13-year MLB career. The three-time All-Star owns a .199/.272/.316 slash with six homers over 299 trips to the plate. He is striking out at a personal-high 25.4% clip and has gone on the injured list three times — once each for a right calf, left knee and left arm issue. Public metrics are divided on how effective the four-time Gold Glove winner remains on the other side of the ball. Statcast still gives him a slightly positive grade, while Defensive Runs Saved pegs him as one of the worst shortstops in the league this year. Crawford had an unexpected resurgence two years ago to secure a fourth-place finish in NL MVP balloting at age 34. He hasn’t maintained that pace, hitting .218/.294/.333 going back to the start of 2022.

Minor League Depth

Adrianza has been out since May with elbow and shoulder injuries. The switch-hitting utility infielder has gotten into only five games for the Braves this year. Adrianza is a glove-only depth option who has appeared in parts of 11 big league campaigns.

Camargo played in eight games for the Giants, starting four at shortstop. He’s better suited for third or second base. A .219/.272/.344 hitter since the start of 2019, he has bounced around Triple-A for the bulk of 2023. Camargo hit .250/.335/.429 in the upper minors between three teams’ affiliates.

Owings got into 11 games for the Pirates, including seven starts at shortstop. It’s his 11th straight season logging some amount of MLB action. He has spent the majority of the year in Triple-A, putting up a .235/.341/.442 line with 14 homers in 80 contests.

Player Options

We don’t need to spend much time on this one. Báez has hit .229/.271/.356 in a little under 1100 plate appearances as a Tiger. He’s not opting out the final four years and $98MM remaining on his six-year free agent contract.

Club Options

This will be one of the more interesting option decisions of the winter. The White Sox can keep Anderson around for $14MM or buy him out at $1MM, leaving them with a $13MM call. Six months ago, that seemed a rubber stamp. While Anderson was coming off an injury-plagued second half, he’d hit .301 and secured his second straight All-Star selection a season ago.

Yet in a season full of underwhelming performances for the White Sox, the extent of Anderson’s drop-off is still surprising. The former batting champ owns a .240/.284/.294 line and has managed just one home run in 475 plate appearances. It’s well off the .288/.316/.442 career mark he carried into the year. Anderson just turned 30 in June, so it’s hard to see this as age-related decline. Yet he’s hitting ground-balls at an enormous 62.5% rate and striking out at a 23.4% clip that’s his highest since 2018. Paired with defensive marks ranging anywhere from mediocre (-1 runs per Statcast) to disastrous (-16 DRS), it has been a sub-replacement level showing.

New GM Chris Getz now has a surprisingly tough call to make. If the Sox part with Anderson, he’d probably jump to the top of this class. Still, a $13MM decision is a not insignificant sum to wager on a rebound from an unexpectedly poor season.

Previous installments: catcher, first base, second base, third base

Angels Select David Fletcher, Jared Walsh

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The Angels announced a series of roster moves today, selecting infielders David Fletcher and Jared Walsh. To open active roster spots for those two, the club optioned outfielder Jordyn Adams and infielder Kyren Paris. To open spots on the 40-man roster, they transferred infielder/outfielder Luis Rengifo to the 60-day injured list and designated right-hander Gerardo Reyes for assignment.

Both Walsh and Fletcher looked like potential building blocks for the club not too long ago, but both of fallen off considerably in recent years. Walsh hit 38 home runs in 176 games over 2020 and 2021, slashing .280/.338/.531 for a wRC+ of 130. Unfortunately, significant health issues have prevented a significant obstacle to him since then. He underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery last year and has been dealing with headaches and insomnia this year, hitting just .202/.265/.353 over the past two seasons. He was outrighted in August and has a batting line of .217/.360/.375 in Triple-A this year.

Despite those struggles, he’ll get a chance to play out the string over the final weeks of the season with the Halos out of contention. He’s making a salary of $2.65MM this year and would be eligible for arbitration again this winter, though the Angels may not tender him a contract unless they have reason to expect he can get back to the form he showed in 2020-2021.

Fletcher hit .319/.376/.425 in the shortened 2020 season, wRC+ of 121, which was enough for the Angels to give him a contract extension going into the following year. In April of 2021, he and the club agreed to a five-year deal with a $26MM guarantee, though his production fell off immediately. He’s hit just .258/.292/.325 since the start of 2021 for a wRC+ of 69.

Twice this year, the club has passed Fletcher through waivers and outrighted him to Triple-A Salt Lake. Since he has over three years of major league service time, he could have rejected either of those assignments and elected free agency. However, since he’s still shy of five years of service, doing so would mean forfeiting what’s left of his contract, which runs through 2025. Naturally, he decided to accept in both instances.

He will still be shy of that five-year mark at season’s end, meaning the Halos could outright him again this winter and keep him around as depth without him taking up a roster spot. In the minors this year, he has a batting line of .330/.382/.428 that looks good at first glance but is par in the Pacific Coast League, translating to a wRC+ of 100. He’s generally considered a strong defender, so he could be valuable even with average offense at the big league level, though he’s been well beneath that in recent years.

Reyes signed a minor league deal with the club in the offseason and had his contract selected in June. He has an earned run average of 7.45 in his eight major league appearances and 6.25 in his 33 Triple-A appearances. He’ll be out of options next year, giving him less roster flexibility going forward.

As for Rengifo, it was reported last week that he won’t be able to return this year due to a bicep tendon rupture, making today’s transfer an inevitable formality.

It’s possible there are luxury tax implications to these moves, as it was reported earlier this month that the club remained narrowly above the lowest threshold of the competitive balance tax. Since then, they have tried to further cut their CBT number by putting catcher Max Stassi on the restricted list and putting outfielder Randal Grichuk on waivers a second time. Fletcher and Walsh each already had their salaries for this year locked in, so bringing them back up doesn’t add any payroll. But Adams and Paris will no longer be receiving major league pay after being optioned, which will trim a small amount of spending from the club’s ledger.

Getting under the CBT line could have implications for the club since the compensatory draft pick they would receive in the event Shohei Ohtani signs elsewhere after rejecting a qualifying offer would be significantly better. There are also compounding penalties for paying the tax in consecutive years, meaning that ducking under now would lessen their penalties if they were to go over again next year.

Whether the club pays the tax or not won’t be officially known until later in the year. Roster Resource estimates the Angels’ tax number at $229MM whereas Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegs it at $237MM. The lowest threshold of the CBT is $233MM this year.

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