Brewers Manager Discusses Rotation Options
The Brewers’ season came to a heartbreaking end last week, as they carried a lead into the ninth inning of their deciding game against the Mets in the Wild Card round, but the Mets put together a late rally and took the series. For Milwaukee, that means the focus has now shifted to 2025 and manager Pat Murphy recently discussed some topics related to the roster, with Curt Hogg rounding them up in a piece for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
One of the players Murphy discusses was Aaron Ashby. The lefty once looked like a budding starting before getting derailed by shoulder issues. He finished 2024 on a strong note out of the bullpen but it seems the skipper hasn’t given up on the possibility of the southpaw being a rotation option again in the future.
“If you’re asking me today if he belongs in that late inning role, I’d say no,” Murphy said. “I’d say he’s more of a candidate to throw more innings because his stuff is pretty special and there’s a variety there. That’s going to be discussed, the path. And it has to be player-driven. The player has to want certain things or at least be in a healthy discussion about it.”
Ashby showed his potential when he first came up to the big leagues. Over the 2021 and 2022 seasons, he tossed 139 innings in a swing role, making 23 starts and 17 relief appearances. He allowed 4.47 earned runs per nine innings but with better peripherals. He struck out 27.1% of batters faced, gave out walks at a 9.7% rate and kept balls in play on the ground at a 57.8% clip.
The Brewers clearly believed in what was ahead for Ashby, as they signed him to an extension during that 2022 campaign. The five-year deal guaranteed him $20.5MM and also came with club options for 2028 and 2029, valued at $9MM and $13MM respectively, with a $1MM buyout on the first one.
Unfortunately, the first year of that deal was wasted. Ashby dealt with shoulder problems in 2023 and eventually required arthroscopic surgery, not pitching in the majors at all. Here in 2024, Ashby had been relegated to a depth option. He spent most of the first half on optional assignment, being recalled twice to make spot starts.
In late August, Ashby was recalled from the minors and added to the Milwaukee bullpen. He tossed 19 2/3 innings over 12 appearances down the stretch, with excellent results. He had a 1.37 ERA, 36.8% strikeout rate, 3.9% walk rate and 51.1% ground ball rate.
Given those excellent results, there might be some temptation to just keep Ashby in a relief role, but it’s also understandable that the Brewers haven’t given up on the rotation path. A solid starter is more useful to a club than a good reliever, generally speaking, and the Brewers should be able to put together a bullpen without Ashby’s contributions. Even if Devin Williams is traded, which seems to be on the table, Milwaukee can turn to guys like Trevor Megill, Joel Payamps, Bryan Hudson and Jared Koenig for key bullpen roles.
The variety that Murphy referred to is indeed present, as Ashby threw five different pitches in the majors this year: a four-seamer, sinker, changeup, curveball and slider. It seems he had a bit of rust in harnessing that arsenal while getting over his lost season in 2023, as he walked 17.4% of batters faced in Triple-A this year while posting an 8.04 ERA. But as mentioned, he was able to get in a good grove by the end of the year.
Going forward, it seems Ashby can still try to carve out a rotation role if he wants one. Also in the rotation mix will be Tobias Myers, who Murphy views as a lock for a job. “In my thoughts, he’s a definite,” Murphy said. “But he’s got to go do it in the offseason. He’s got to come back out, recapture that mentality and recapture the arsenal, which isn’t always easy.”
It’s unsurprising that Myers has earned some job security after his strong performance in 2024. He pitched 138 innings for the Brewers this year with a flat 3.00 ERA. He had a 22.3% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 37.6% ground ball rate. He benefitted a bit from a .282 batting average on balls in play and 81.1% strand rate, but even his 3.91 FIP and 3.99 SIERA suggest he would have been solid without as much favor from the baseball gods.
There are some questions for the Brewers to answer in their rotation going forward. Freddy Peralta will be locked into one spot and it seems Myers will as well. Colin Rea posted a 4.29 ERA this year and the Brewers have a $5.5MM club option for 2025 with a $1MM buyout. That makes it a net $4.5MM decision, which is a bargain for a solid back-end starter. Guys like Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Luis Severino got one-year deals worth between $11MM and $13MM last offseason. The Brewers themselves gave $8.5MM to Wade Miley, though he unfortunately required Tommy John surgery early in the year.
Aaron Civale can be retained for 2025 but he will cost more than Rea. He’s eligible for arbitration and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $8MM next year. Given the aforementioned prices for back-end starters, that’s reasonable for Civale, who had a 4.36 ERA in 31 starts this year. But the Brewers generally work with tight budgets and might have less TV revenue coming in next year, so perhaps they might explore the trade market.
DL Hall is another option, as he worked both out of the rotation and bullpen in 2024. But he missed a lot of time due to a left knee sprain and wasn’t able to pile up a big sample of work. He finished the year with a 5.02 ERA across seven starts and six relief appearances.
Another big question mark will be Brandon Woodruff, who missed all of 2024 recovering from shoulder surgery. He’s under contract for 2025 but he’ll be a great unknown for next year, likely until spring training rolls around. Robert Gasser could return late next year after undergoing UCL surgery a few months ago. Jacob Misiorowski is one of the best pitching prospects in the league and he finished the year at Triple-A, but he also walked 14.4% of batters faced on the year and might still need some fine tuning.
Between Peralta, Myers, Woodruff, Ashby, Hall, Rea, Civale and Misiorowski, the Brewers have eight potential rotation options, though the long winter ahead could change the picture via additions or subtractions.
Braxton Garrett Diagnosed With Elbow Impingement
Marlins left-hander Braxton Garrett has been diagnosed with an impingement in his throwing elbow, tweets Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. The southpaw is going through a throwing program at the team’s Florida complex.
The diagnosis is a relief after Garrett ended the season on an uncertain note. Miami shut him down in late September when he experienced elbow soreness during a bullpen session. That raised the possibility of another significant injury for a Marlins starter. Fortunately, testing apparently didn’t reveal any ligament damage and Garrett is already throwing.
That offers hope for a mostly healthy offseason. Like most Miami pitchers, Garrett had his 2024 season wrecked by injury. The former 7th overall pick began the year on the shelf with an impingement in his shoulder. He missed about six weeks and returned in early May. Garrett took the ball seven times before a flexor strain put him back on the injured list in the middle of June. Garrett remained on the 60-day IL from there on out, as the late-season elbow soreness prevented him from returning.
Prior to this generally lost season, Garrett was a mid-rotation starter. He posted consecutive sub-4.00 ERA showings in 2022-23. That included 159 2/3 innings of 3.66 ERA ball during Miami’s surprising playoff season last year. Garrett punched out 23.7% of opposing hitters while walking fewer than 5% of batters faced.
Miami was without Sandy Alcantara for the entire season. They lost Eury Pérez to Tommy John surgery in April. Jesús Luzardo, Ryan Weathers and Garrett all had extended absences during the year. While Pérez will be out until the middle of the season, the Fish could welcome the other four pitchers back by Opening Day. A rotation with Alcantara, Luzardo, Garrett, Weathers and one of Edward Cabrera, Valente Bellozo or Max Meyer has a chance to be a strong group.
The outlook for the rest of the roster isn’t nearly as promising. The Fish have very few established players in their lineup or the bullpen. Even if the rotation stays healthier in 2025, they’re highly unlikely to be playoff contenders. Miami is overhauling the coaching staff after committing to a rebuild of the roster last winter.
Miami could trade from the rotation either this offseason or at next summer’s deadline. They’ll probably hold Garrett into next season to allow him to demonstrate his health. Garrett is eligible for the arbitration for the first of four times as a Super Two qualifier. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $1.8MM salary.
Cubs, Third Base Coach Willie Harris To Part Ways
The Cubs and third base coach Willie Harris are parting ways, per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score on X. Levine characterizes the split as mutual with the sides on good terms. He adds that Harris is open to other coaching positions.
Harris, 46, played in the majors from 2001 to 2012, suiting up for the Orioles, White Sox, Red Sox, Atlanta, Nationals, Mets and Reds. After his playing days were done, he moved into coaching, spending some time in the minors. The Cubs hired him as third base coach going into the 2021 season, working under manager David Ross.
Craig Counsell took over as the Cubs’ skipper coming into 2024, inheriting Mike Napoli as first base coach with Harris at third. It was reported last week that Napoli and a couple of other coaches won’t be returning and today’s news means the Cubs have yet another coaching vacancy to fill.
Back in August, Scott Merkin of MLB.com spoke to Harris about the managerial job with the White Sox, shortly after Pedro Grifol had been fired with Grady Sizemore taking over on an interim basis. Harris said that he would be interested in being the skipper of the White Sox but it’s unclear if that interest runs the other way.
“I would absolutely love it if they showed interest in me being the leader of this organization, this team,” Harris said. “But I also understand how it goes. It’s a waiting process. If they call, great, I’ll be ready. I’ll be prepared.”
Orioles Part Ways With Three Coaches
The Orioles are parting ways with three coaches, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com on X. Co-hitting coach Ryan Fuller, bench coach Fredi González and major league coach José Hernández will not return to the club in 2025.
Fuller, 34, was an internal promotion. He was hired by the O’s in 2019, working as a minor league hitting coordinator. Going into the 2022 season, Fuller and Matt Borgschulte were announced as co-hitting coaches, with Borgschulte coming over from the Twins.
The results have been pretty good under those two, though this year ended on a bit of a sour note. The Orioles hit .255/.321/.421 for a 105 wRC+ last year, 12th-best in the league. They were actually better in 2024, slashing .250/.315/.435 for a 115 wRC+ which trailed only the Dodgers and Yankees.
But that season-long performance came despite a mediocre finish. The O’s hit .238/.307 /.395 over August in September for a wRC+ of 102. They were then swept out of the playoffs by the Royals, losing two straight games in the Wild Card series while scoring just one total run between the two contests.
Separating the contributions of a coach from the performances of the players is always tough, but it seems the Orioles have decided to make a change. They haven’t made any official announcement, so perhaps Borgschulte will take on the hitting coach job by himself, though it’s also possible further reporting will emerge in the coming days to provide a clearer picture.
González has been with the O’s for the past five seasons, getting hired prior to the 2020 campaign. He was given the nebulous title of major league coach but was given the bench coach title two years after that. Prior to joining the O’s, González had worked for the Marlins and Atlanta, working coaching jobs and as manager for both clubs. Hernández played in the majors from 1991 to 2006, suiting up for nine different clubs. He joined the O’s as a minor league coach in 2010 and worked his way up to the majors for the 2019 season.
Josh Jung Undergoes Wrist Surgery
The Rangers provided medical updates on some injured players today, with Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News among those to relay the info. Third baseman Josh Jung underwent a tendon release surgery on Tuesday that will keep him sidelined for the next three to four weeks, after which he will start regaining strength with the hope of having a normal offseason. Additionally, outfielder Evan Carter had an ablation procedure on his back while outfielder Adolis García has been diagnosed with a strained patellar tendon in his left knee and will rehab for the next eight weeks before beginning his offseason program.
Jung, 26, was limited by his right wrist in 2024, both in terms of the quality and quantity of his production. Last year, he hit 23 home runs in 122 games for the Rangers, slashing .266/.315/.467 for a 112 wRC+. Ideally, he would have built upon that this year but he was hit by a pitch in just his fourth contest of the season and suffered a fractured right wrist.
He underwent surgery in early April but the problems with his wrist were not solved at that point. The club initially anticipated a six-week recovery timeline but the surgery ended up being more complicated than expected, expanding his expected timeline to eight to ten weeks. By May, it was reported that even that longer timeline was optimistic. As he tried to work his way back to health, inflammation and discomfort continued to pop up.
He was reinstated from the IL at the end of July but eventually ended the season back on the IL, heading there in late September due to discomfort in that wrist. He finished the season with a .264/.298/.421 slash line and 102 wRC+ in just 46 games.
Jung was considering a platelet-rich plasma injection with the hope of that providing some healing, but he would have had to wait six weeks to see if that worked, which may have just been kicking the can down the road. “Rupture of the tendon was inevitable,” Jung tells Grant. By getting the procedure over with now, he’ll ideally have some time to get back to feeling 100% before spring training ramps up.
It was a somewhat similar story for Carter, 22, this year. He had a huge debut with the Rangers in 2023, hitting .306/.413/.645 in his first 23 major league games and then .300/.417/.500 in 17 postseason games. But he also had a mostly lost season, hitting .188/.272/.361 in just 45 games, with a stress reaction in his back the culprit in his case. Per Grant, this ablation procedure was to “burn” off some scar tissue that was hampering his recovery. He has already been cleared to begin a hitting progression.
As for García, he got into 154 games this year but with clearly diminished production. His .224/.284/.400 batting line and 92 wRC+ were both far worse than last year’s .245/.328/.508 line and 126 wRC+. He also put up a massive .323/.382/.726 line and 199 wRC+ in the postseason, helping the Rangers win the World Series and earning ALCS MVP honors along the way. Perhaps the knee injury provides an explanation for the big drop-off. The eight-week timeline should give him plenty of time to be healed before spring training ramps up.
Offensive struggles were a big reason why the Rangers disappointed on the heels of their World Series victory. Collectively, they hit .263/.337/.452 in the 2023 regular season. That led to a 116 wRC+ which trailed only Atlanta and Tampa. In 2024, they dropped all the way to a collective line of .238/.305/.380 and 95 wRC+, putting them in the bottom third of the league.
The club’s poor performance wasn’t limited to these guys, but it’s obviously less than ideal to have three projected regulars at less than full strength. Ideally, all can be healthy for spring and back to their best selves in 2025. Jung figures to be the everyday option at third while Carter and García should be in the outfield alongside Wyatt Langford and Leody Taveras. García is about to turn 32 and has two years of club control left, so he’s a theoretical trade candidate for this winter, but the Rangers would obviously be selling low given his rough season and injured knee.
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MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held a live chat today, exclusively for Front Office subscribers. Anthony took questions on Willy Adames' market, where the Royals can look for offense, what it might cost to sign Tanner Scott, Cardinals' trade possibilities, if the D-Backs can re-sign Christian Walker, the upcoming playoff games, and much more.
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10 Players Elect Free Agency
As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.
Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com log.
Outfielders
- Nick Gordon (Marlins)
- Rafael Ortega (White Sox)
Pitchers
- Andrew Bellatti (Phillies)
- Jonathan Bermúdez (Marlins)
- Taylor Clarke (Brewers)
- Dylan Covey (Phillies)
- J.P. Feyereisen (Dodgers)
- Brett Kennedy (Reds)
- Nick Nelson (Phillies)
- Wander Suero (Astros)
The Opener: NLDS, ALDS, NLCS
With two of the four teams headed to the LCS already decided, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on headed into the weekend:
1. NLDS Game 5:
Baseball fans get to enjoy three games from three different series this weekend, starting with a winner-take-all rubber match between the Dodgers and Padres at Dodger Stadium at 5:08pm local time this evening. In the first instance of a pitching match-up featuring two Japanese-born pitchers in MLB playoff history, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.00 ERA in 18 starts) will take the ball for the Dodgers in Game 5 opposite Padres veteran Yu Darvish (3.31 ERA in 16 starts). Yamamoto pitched for the Dodgers in Game 1 but was torched for five runs in three innings of work amid whispers that the star hurler was tipping his pitches. Meanwhile, Darvish hurled seven innings of one-run ball in his start against the Dodgers earlier in this series.
2. ALDS Game 5:
Tomorrow, another set of division rivals will prepare for a winner-take-all Game 5 when the Tigers and Guardians head back to Cleveland for a game scheduled at 8:08pm local time tomorrow evening. Tigers ace Tarik Skubal (2.39 ERA) will be back on the mound for the Guardians after previously striking out 14 across 13 scoreless frames this postseason between dominant starts against the Astros and Guardians. The Guardians have not announced their starter as they try to hand Skubal the first loss of his postseason career, though injuries to the Detroit lineup could help their own pitching staff keep pace with the dominant lefty.
Tigers slugger Kerry Carpenter departed last night’s game with an apparent hamstring injury, and manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including Evan Woodbery of MLive) that the club will need to get Carpenter looked at by team doctors before determining his availability for Game 5. Meanwhile, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reported last night that catcher Jake Rogers also underwent imaging after having his wrist and forearm wrapped in the aftermath of Game 4, though specifics of the backstop’s potential injury aren’t known. With two key pieces of the club’s starting lineup potentially unavailable headed into Game 5, the Tigers could need to rely on backup catcher Dillon Dingler and Carpenter’s platoon partner Justyn-Henry Malloy to take the club to the ALCS.
3. NLCS Game 1:
On Sunday, the winner of tonight’s game 5 will move on to face the Mets in Game 1 of the NLCS, which will take place at either Dodger Stadium or San Diego’s Petco Park at 5:15 local time that evening. With the club’s entire rotation set to be fully rested entering the series, the Mets appear likely to turn to either Luis Severino (3.91 ERA) or Sean Manaea (3.47 ERA) in Sunday’s game, while the Dodgers would likely turn to Jack Flaherty (3.17 ERA) should they advance. The Padres have less certainty in their rotation situation than the other remaining NL clubs after losing Joe Musgrove to Tommy John surgery earlier this postseason, but could start right-hander Michael King (2.95 ERA) on short rest or simply lean on their dominant bullpen in the first game of the seven game set.
Pohlad Family To Explore Sale Of Twins
Twins owner Joe Pohlad, grandson of longtime owner Carl Pohlad and nephew of successor Jim Pohlad, announced that his family will begin exploring a sale of the team. The Pohlad family has owned the Twins since 1984 — the third-longest tenure of any ownership group in the sport behind only the Steinbrenner family (Yankees) and Jerry Reinsdorf (White Sox).
“For the past 40 seasons, the Minnesota Twins have been part of our family’s heart and soul,” Pohlad said in this morning’s press release. “This team is woven into the fabric of our lives, and the Twins community has become an extension of our family. The staff, the players, and most importantly, you, the fans — everyone who makes up this unbelievable organization — is part of that. We’ve never taken lightly the privilege of being stewards of this franchise. However, after months of thoughtful consideration, our family reached a decision this summer to explore selling the Twins. As we enter the next phase of this process, the time is right to make this decision public.
We truly respect and cherish what the Twins mean to Minneapolis, St. Paul, the great state of Minnesota, and this entire region. Our goal is to be as informative as possible with the team, staff, and you, the fans. You deserve that, because in so many ways, this team doesn’t belong to any one family – it belongs to all of you. It’s our objective to find an ownership group who all of us can be proud of and who will take care of the Minnesota Twins.
After four decades of commitment, passion, and countless memories, we are looking toward the future with care and intention – for our family, the Twins organization, and this community we love so much.”
Carl Pohlad purchased the Twins franchise from former owner Calvin Griffith for a purchase price of $44MM back in 1984. Three generations of the family have since spearheaded ownership, with the 42-year-old Joe Pohlad being tabbed as the team’s control person just two years ago. It’s impossible to know precisely how much the Twins might fetch in a sale, but it’ll surely top $1 billion. The Royals ($1 billion), Marlins ($1.2 billion) and Orioles ($1.725 billion) commanded at least that much in their sales within the past half decade. Entering the season, Forbes placed an estimated $1.46 billion value on the Twins — a five percent increase over the prior year.
For a frustrated Twins fanbase, it’s surely welcome news. Ownership drew the ire of Minnesota fans by slashing $30MM off the payroll on the heels of the team’s first postseason series win since 2002 just this past offseason. Uncertainty surrounding the television broadcast rights in the midst of Diamond Sports Group’s ongoing bankruptcy proceedings largely fueled that decision, but it was nevertheless a disheartening trajectory for a fanbase that has long voiced frustration with ownership even before that reduction in budget.
The Twins have long resided in the bottom half and frequently the bottom third of Major League Baseball in terms of player payroll. Fans were sold hope that the construction of Target Field, which opened in 2010, would boost spending capacity. It’s technically true that the team’s payroll has risen, but only relative to their prior spending levels and not relative to the rest of the league. The Twins haven’t ranked in the top half of the league in payroll size since 2012, and this past season’s 18th-ranked payroll falls right in line with the same levels they sat at the Metrodome in 2003-09, when their payroll ranked between 18th and 25th in the sport each season (per Cot’s Contracts).
It bears emphasizing that exploring a sale and committing to a sale are not one and the same. Angels owner Arte Moreno and Nationals owner Mark Lerner have both explored the possibility of selling their own clubs in the past two to three years, only to eventually express a change in direction and intent to continue on as the owners of those respective teams. Both of those clubs were purchased by current ownership far more recently, however, and play in much larger markets. That meant loftier sale prices and less potential for return on investment than the Pohlad family stands to make in soliciting bids on a small-market club that was purchased four decades ago for a price smaller than the combined salary of the Twins’ two most-expensive players (Carlos Correa and Pablo Lopez).
For now, the prospect of a sale surely instills a sense of hope in fans but also creates more questions than answers. It’s unclear whether the Twins are wholly committed to selling or simply seeing what the franchise might fetch, nor is it presently known what price they’ll seek or if there’s any sort of deadline after which they’ll stop fielding interest. On a smaller scale, it’s difficult to glean just what a sale of the club might mean for the 2025 roster and payroll. Joe Pohlad had already publicly stated that he did not anticipate further reduction in payroll, though that was before the sale of the club was made public.
It’s also possible, though far from certain, that news of the impending sale process prompted now-former general manager Thad Levine — the team’s No. 2 baseball operations executive behind president of baseball operations Derek Falvey — to step down and seek new opportunities. Levine announced his departure from the club just last week. He did not cite a reason for his decision, but Levine has spoken fondly of the Pohlad family in the past and turned down interview opportunities to interview as a baseball operation leader with other organizations, including the Mets and Phillies. The Rockies were also linked to him before sticking with an internal name and elevating scouting director Bill Schmidt to the GM’s chair. Levine did interview for the Red Sox’ front office vacancy one year ago, but the Sox ultimately hired former Cubs assistant GM Craig Breslow.
Phillies Notes: Outfield, Hoffman, Coaching Staff
The Phillies’ season came to a crushing end last night. The NL East champs were bounced by the division rival Mets. It was the second straight year in which their playoff results have taken a step back. Philadelphia went from the 2022 NL pennant to last year’s NLCS appearance to the Division Series.
Matt Gelb of the Athletic looks ahead to the offseason in a piece that’ll be of interest to Philadelphia fans. Gelb writes that Philadelphia is likely to bring in an outfielder via free agency or trade during the offseason. The Phils moved Bryce Harper into first base, leaving them with a primary outfield of Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Nick Castellanos. That’s a relatively weak outfield for a contender.
Castellanos’ .254/.311/.431 slash isn’t enough to make up for his lack of defensive value. It’s the opposite story with Rojas. He’s an elite runner and plus defender in center field but hasn’t provided much at the plate. The second-year player hit .243/.279/.322 across 363 trips. Marsh was Philadelphia’s most productive outfielder, hitting 16 home runs with a .249/.328/.419 batting line. The lefty-hitting Marsh has yet to demonstrate he’s more than a strong-side platoon bat though. He hit .192 in 90 plate appearances against southpaws this season. He’s a career .216/.276/.306 hitter versus lefty pitching.
The Phils acquired Austin Hays in a buy-low deadline pickup. Philadelphia projected Hays as at worst a right-handed platoon partner for Marsh in left field. Hays spent most of his Phillies tenure on the injured list and didn’t produce in limited playing time. He hit .256/.275/.397 with 19 strikeouts and no walks in 80 plate appearances after the trade.
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Hays for a $6.4MM salary in his final season of arbitration. He’s likely to be non-tendered. The Phils could stick with utility player Weston Wilson as a platoon partner with Marsh. The other outfield spots are areas for potential improvement, though neither is without complications.
Kyle Schwarber blocks Castallenos from getting substantial time at designated hitter. There are still two seasons remaining at $20MM annually on Castellanos’ five-year free agent deal. The $40MM in guarantees is well above his market value. Philadelphia would need to eat a chunk of the contract to facilitate a trade — likely to a team that could play him at DH. They wouldn’t get much back even if they paid the deal down, which could leave the Phils to stick with Castellanos in right.
Upgrading in center field could be even more challenging. This winter’s free agent class is extremely thin. Barring a surprise Cody Bellinger opt-out, the best free agent center fielders available include Harrison Bader and Michael A. Taylor. They’re at best marginal upgrades on Rojas. There aren’t many clear solutions on the trade market either. Leody Taveras and Jose Siri provide similar glove-first profiles. The Cubs could try to offload part of Bellinger’s two-year, $50MM guarantee if he opts in as most expect.
If the Phillies were unable to move Castellanos but wanted a clear outfield upgrade, that opens the possibility of flipping one of their other outfielders. Gelb floats the idea of either Marsh or Rojas becoming an offseason trade candidate. Rojas has five years of club control and is two seasons from arbitration. Marsh is projected for a $3MM salary in his first of three arbitration years.
A Marsh trade would at least open the possibility for the Phils to make a splash in left field. They’d face an uphill battle from teams like the Yankees, Mets and Giants on Juan Soto — though owner John Middleton and Dave Dombrowski’s front office have never shied away from making runs at superstars. Players like Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernández could be in play if Soto isn’t realistic. The Phillies could theoretically play Marsh in center field if they were to trade Rojas and sign a bigger bat to play left. That’d project as a very weak defensive grouping.
After the outfield, the bullpen is the next-biggest question. Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez are two of the top relievers in the upcoming free agent class. Wednesday was a bitter ending for both pitchers. Hoffman loaded the bases on a single, hit-by-pitch and walk. Estévez entered and surrendered the Francisco Lindor grand slam that proved to be the nail in the coffin. Yet the tough finish doesn’t negate the importance of Hoffman and Estévez down the stretch. The righties were two of the three highest-leverage arms (alongside Matt Strahm) in Rob Thomson’s bullpen.
Even with both pitchers entering their age-32 seasons, they’re on track for significant multi-year deals. MLBTR’s Steve Adams covered Hoffman’s emergence for Front Office subscribers last month, writing that a four-year contract could be on the table. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel suggested earlier this week that Estévez has a shot at four years in his own right. Even if the relief market isn’t quite that strong, both pitchers have a case for a three-year pact around $10-12MM annually.
Postgame, both pitchers expressed some hope they’d be back with the Phils. “Hopefully. That would be great, but let’s see. You know how it is,” Estévez said of a potential return (via Gelb). Hoffman was a bit more emphatic. “Yeah, that’s all I want,” he told reporters (including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com) about staying in Philly. “But it’s hard to think about right now.”
Major roster decisions will wait for the official start of the offseason in a few weeks. A more immediate question may be on the coaching staff. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted on Thursday that the Phils are set for evaluation meetings to determine whether to make any coaching changes. The Phillies signed Thomson to a one-year extension last December, so he’s under contract through next season.