Yankees Notes: Pitching Staff, Rizzo, Verdugo
The Yankees now know they’ll be taking on the Guardians in the ALCS when it begins on Monday, and manager Aaron Boone spoke to reporters (including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com) about the club’s roster plans for the coming series. Of note, Boone indicated that after bringing just 11 pitchers to the ALDS they’ll be expanding their pitching staff headed into the seven-game set, though it’s not yet clear whether they’ll use the maximum 13 pitchers allowed or settle for 12 in order to maintain a more flexible bench.
Regardless of how many pitchers end up coming, the Yankees will need to utilize four rotation arms in the upcoming seven-game series after turning to only Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt in the best-of-five ALDS. Per Hoch, Boone indicated that right-hander Luis Gil will be joining the club’s rotation for the ALCS, though neither he nor Gerrit Cole will start Game 1 with Cole scheduled for a start in Game 2 and Gil expected to start later in the series. That would seemingly leave either Rodon or Schmidt lined up to start the first game of the ALCS.
Schmidt has both the stronger regular season and postseason numbers of the pair, having posted a 2.85 ERA in 16 regular season starts and thrown 4 2/3 innings of two-run ball against the Royals during the ALDS. With that said, Rodon did strike out seven batters in his 3 2/3 innings of work during the ALDS (albeit with four earned runs on his ledger) and would be start Game 1 on an additional day of rest as compared to Schmidt. Veteran righty Marcus Stroman is also theoretically available to start if needed but seems likely to be used as a starter only in an emergency after being moved to the bullpen late in the regular season and being left off the ALDS roster entirely. Stroman could make the ALCS roster as a multi-inning reliever or emergency starter, though it’s also possible the club could want to add another short relief arm such as Mark Leiter Jr. to their bullpen mix headed into the series.
As the Yankees ponder how many pitchers to roster for the ALCS, one potential factor in that decision could be how many roster spots they need to allocate to first base. Veteran first baseman Anthony Rizzo was absent from the ALDS roster after suffering two broken fingers in the final days of the regular season. In his stead, the Yankees relied on a combination of Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti at first base when facing Kansas City. The pair went a combined 3-for-12 with a double, four walks and four strikeouts during the series and could be turned to once again at first depending on Rizzo’s status.
Rookie Ben Rice was also on the ALDS roster as a first base option but ultimately did not make it into a game, making him a logical cut from the ALCS roster either for the return of Rizzo or the addition of another pitcher. Hoch relays that Boone told reporters the veteran first baseman was making “some progress” as he looks to return in time for the ALCS, though Boone didn’t get into specifics about Rizzo’s status and noted that a final decision about his availability likely would not be made until the club finalizes its roster plans on Monday.
One position that seems fairly set in stone for the Bronx headed into next week’s series, however, is left field. After a lackluster regular season that saw the Yankees briefly turn to top prospect Jasson Dominguez over him down the stretch, Verdugo received the nod in left field headed into the playoffs. While Verdugo went just three-for-14 in the ALDS this year, he did deliver a clutch performance in Game 1 where he notched two hits, knocked in the go-ahead run and made an impressive defensive play in the outfield to rob Royals second baseman Michael Massey of a hit.
Verdugo’s Game 1 heroics were evidently enough to earn him a starting nod in the left field headed into the ALCS, as Boone indicated (as relayed by Hoch) that the outfielder is “likely” to remain the club’s starter in left for their coming series against Cleveland. Dominguez, Trent Grisham, and Duke Ellis were other outfielders included on the club’s ALDS roster, Ellis’s brief cameo a pinch runner in Game 5 was the only appearance any of the three made during the series. If the Yankees ultimately decide to go to 13 pitchers on the roster, cutting one of those outfield options could be another way to free up space for more pitching.
Roberts: Tony Gonsolin “In The Mix” For Dodgers’ NLCS Roster
As the Dodgers plan out their NLCS roster ahead of the first game of the series tomorrow, manager Dave Roberts spoke to reporters about the club’s plans for the upcoming best-of-seven set. Among the options the club is considering for the roster, according to Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, is right-hander Tony Gonsolin.
Gonsolin, who has spent the entire 2024 season to this point rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, began a rehab assignment in September and built up to 50 pitches in those games but was more or less ruled out for the postseason by Roberts two weeks ago, when he indicated that “something really unforeseen” would need to happen in order for Gonsolin to pitch in the playoffs. Evidently, the swath of injuries to the club’s pitching staff that have occurred since then constitute a sufficiently unforeseen circumstance that the Dodgers are once again considering the right-hander for a role in the postseason rotation.
Roberts (as relayed by Ardaya) ruled out both Joe Kelly and Brusdar Graterol for the NLCS this evening when discussing the club’s options, and right-hander Michael Grove is ineligible to return before the World Series after being removed from the club’s NLDS roster due to injury. ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez was among those to relay that Roberts added lefty Alex Vesia to the growing list of hurlers expected to be unavailable for the NLCS, as he’s dealing with an intercostal injury that Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times notes left Roberts to express optimism Vesia may be able to return for the World Series if the club advances.
Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips, Ryan Brasier, Anthony Banda, Daniel Hudson, Ben Casparius, Edgardo Henriquez, and Landon Knack all were on the club’s NLDS roster and figure to once again be available for the club’s upcoming series against the Mets, and with each of Jack Flaherty, Walker Buehler, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto expected to reprise their roles in the club’s rotation that leaves just one open spot to be filled by either Gonsolin or Brent Honeywell Jr. though it’s certainly feasible that Henriquez or Casparius could also be left off the roster to accommodate the addition of both arms.
That may be a wise decision for the club at this point, as Roberts noted (as relayed by Jack Harris of the L.A. Times) that Yamamoto will not be pulled off his current schedule of five days off between starts. Those required days off between starts would leave Yamamoto able to start just one game in this series, meaning that the club will have to turn to its relievers to handle as many as two games this series assuming that Flaherty and Buehler make two starts each. The addition of multi-inning arms like Gonsolin and Honeywell, then, could provide the club with some much-needed length out of the bullpen that they currently only stand to get out of Knack.
In 37 2/3 innings of work spread between 20 appearances with the Dodgers and Pirates this year, Honeywell has pitched to an excellent 2.63 ERA but has done so with lackluster peripherals, including a 12.1% strikeout rate and a 4.28 FIP. Gonsolin, meanwhile, hasn’t pitched in the majors since the middle of the 2023 campaign but sports a career 3.19 ERA and 3.99 FIP 79 appearances (including 71 starts) in the majors since he made his debut back in 2019. The righty’s postseason resume is lackluster, however, as he’s surrendered a 9.20 ERA in 14 2/3 frames during the playoffs throughout his career.
Padres, Jackson Merrill Reportedly Discussed Pre-Debut Extension
The Padres saw their season come to an end last night at the hands of their division rivals in Los Angeles, but despite that disappointing end the 2024 campaign was nonetheless littered with plenty of bright spots for fans in San Diego. Perhaps the most significant among those was the emergence of Jackson Merrill, who entered Spring Training as a shortstop prospect with just 46 games at the Double-A level under his belt and turned a surprise Opening Day assignment in center field into a phenomenal rookie season.
Before that sensational season came together, however, it seems the Padres were already hoping to lock in the youngster’s services for the long haul. A report from The Athletic’s Dennis Lin earlier today revealed that San Diego brass discussed the possibility of an extension with Merrill last offseason, before the youngster had even made his MLB debut. The sides, of course, did not wind up coming together on a deal. That didn’t stop the Padres from installing Merrill in center field to kick off the season, however, and Merrill rewarded his club’s confidence in him with a season that saw him appear in 156 games while slashing .292/.326/.500 with 24 homers, 16 steals in 19 attempts, and a 130 wRC+.
Merrill’s debut season, during which he was just 21 years old, was the sort of campaign that inspires confidence in a young players ability to produce at the big league level. After all, Merrill showed off an impressive and varied profile that should help him continue to impact the Padres in all sorts of ways going forward. The youngster not only flashed impressive power with a .208 ISO that was second to only Aaron Judge among qualified center fielders this year, but he also struck out at an excellent 17% clip that was second to only Cody Bellinger by that same metric. And while his defense didn’t receive the universal praise lauded on players like Brenton Doyle and Daulton Varsho, Merrill’s +12 Outs Above Average at the position put him in the 97th percentile among big leaguers and made him the seventh most valuable defensive center fielder in the sport by the metric.
That combination of power, contact, and defense at a valuable up-the-middle position figures to leave Merrill as a wildly attractive extension candidate, particularly given that he’s currently scheduled to reach free agency after his age-26 campaign. With that being said, the price of extending a youngster of Merrill’s talent is sure to have gone up for the Padres relative to last winter now that he’s proven he can handle big league pitching. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker showcases how lucrative even one dominant season in the big leagues can be, as both Ronald Acuna Jr. and Julio Rodriguez landed nine-figure extensions in the final months of their respective Rookie of the Year campaigns.
While the presence of budding ace Paul Skenes could complicate Merrill’s own pursuit of that award, his 5.3 fWAR in his rookie season falls in the middle of Acuna’s 4.4 figure and Rodriguez’s 5.8, though it’s worth noting that Acuna was a year younger than either Rodriguez or Merrill during his rookie season. Given his similarity to those youngsters, it seems reasonable to expect that Merrill would garner a guarantee well above the $100MM Acuna landed even if Rodriguez’s convoluted $210MM guarantee is not exactly the simplest point of comparison.
For San Diego’s part, they’ve certainly shown a willingness to spend heavily on extensions for young players in the past. The most obvious example of this is the $340MM deal the club made with Fernando Tatis Jr. prior to his third season with the club, though Jake Cronenworth‘s seven-year extension signed just before the start of the 2023 season is another noteworthy example of the club committing to a long-term extension for a player with several years of team control remaining. Of course, both of those deals came together under the ownership of the late Peter Seidler, and the Padres began to scale back their payroll last year following his passing and Eric Kutsenda’s ascent to the role of interim control person.
Extending Merrill could also have a significant impact on the club’s luxury tax payroll going forward. Since the luxury tax is calculated based on average annual value, back-loaded extensions such as the one signed by Tatis early in his career or a hypothetical Merrill extension often have a far more significant impact on a club’s luxury tax positioning than they do on the club’s actual payroll in the early years of the deal. That could prove to be an obstacle for the Padres, who per RosterResource currently have a guaranteed payroll of just over $231MM for 2025 before factoring in offseason additions of arbitration-level contracts for players like Luis Arraez and Michael King.
Ha-Seong Kim Reportedly Targeting Early-Season Return From Labrum Surgery
Ha-Seong Kim underwent labrum surgery on his right shoulder on Thursday. The Padres never provided a timeline for the infielder’s return, but Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune sheds some light on the recovery. According to Acee, Kim is targeting mid-late April or early May for his return to game action.
If he’s able to stay on that trajectory, Kim could be available for the majority of next season. Kim, who turns 29 next week, now represents one of the more interesting risk-reward plays in the free agent class. He’s still a lock to decline his end of a mutual option. The Padres could make him a $21.05MM qualifying offer, but that’d be a risky decision this early into his recovery from shoulder surgery. QO decisions are due within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. That’ll only afford the Padres about three weeks to gauge Kim’s health before making that call.
It seems unlikely the Padres would take that gamble. That’d allow Kim to hit free agency unencumbered by draft compensation. If healthy, he’d probably be in line for a contract of four-plus seasons. At his best, he’s only behind Willy Adames among middle infielders in the upcoming class. Adames is the only other impending free agent who profiles as an everyday shortstop. Kim has demonstrated that he can play plus defense at second and third base, as well, so he’d make sense for a broad range of teams.
Clubs’ evaluations of Kim’s shoulder will play an important role in his free agent process. If teams believe he’ll be fully recovered within the first month or two of next season, the injury theoretically shouldn’t have a huge impact on demand. That’s a big caveat, so it’s possible Kim’s market dips to the point where he considers a short-term deal.
Kim recently hired the Boras Corporation as his representation. A few rehabbing high-profile Boras clients have signed two-year contracts that allow them to opt out after the first season. Michael Conforto signed for $36MM with the Giants after missing the entire 2022 season to shoulder surgery. Last winter, Rhys Hoskins inked a $34MM deal with the Brewers a season removed from a Spring Training ACL tear.
Neither of those contracts have worked out especially well for the team. Conforto passed on his opt-out after a middling first season in San Francisco. Hoskins will probably do the same with Milwaukee. Kim is a very different player than Conforto or Hoskins — a lot more of his value is tied in his defense — but that’s a general path he might look to follow.
The Athletic’s Dennis Lin wrote this afternoon that the Padres would like to bring Kim back, though he notes that the infielder could price himself out of San Diego’s range. That’d leave the Friars with a question at shortstop. San Diego used Xander Bogaerts at the position down the stretch. Lin indicates the Padres prefer to move Bogaerts back to second base next season. Jackson Merrill came up as a shortstop prospect but played all 1300+ innings in center field as a rookie. Merrill had a fantastic debut campaign, so the Padres could decide to leave him in center.
Reds’ Julian Aguiar Undergoes Tommy John Surgery
Reds righty Julian Aguiar underwent Tommy John surgery on Friday, tweets Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. Sheldon had reported earlier in the week that Aguiar underwent surgery before issuing a correction that the rookie pitcher was still evaluating his options.
The second opinion evidently didn’t allow the 23-year-old to avoid surgery. Aguiar will almost certainly miss the entire 2025 season. Assuming the Reds keep him on the 40-man roster throughout the offseason, they can place him on the 60-day injured list at the start of Spring Training. He’d spend all of next season on the IL before returning to the 40-man during the winter.
Aguiar has developed from a 12th round pick out of a California junior college into one of Cincinnati’s better pitching prospects. Baseball America slotted the 6’3″ righty as the #9 prospect in the Reds system on their most recent organizational ranking. BA credits Aguiar with a plus changeup as the headlining pitch of an otherwise average arsenal. The outlet suggests he could profile as a back-of-the-rotation starter.
Cincinnati called Aguiar up in the middle of August. He earned the promotion with a solid 3.79 earned run average across 116 1/3 innings between Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Louisville. Aguiar didn’t have much success in his first look against big league competition. Opponents tagged him for a 6.25 ERA over seven starts. He surrendered eight home runs across 31 2/3 frames while struggling to miss bats. Aguiar generated swinging strikes at only an 8.1% clip, resulting in a well below-average 13.6% strikeout rate.
The Reds lost two potential back-end starters in the waning weeks of the season. Lefty Brandon Williamson also blew out in September and went for his own Tommy John procedure. The Reds still have a promising nucleus of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Rhett Lowder and Andrew Abbott but will need to find reliability at the back of the rotation. Nick Martinez and Jakob Junis are both expected to decline options and become free agents. Lowder has limited MLB experience, while Graham Ashcraft and Carson Spiers had rough seasons. The Reds could look for multiple starting pitchers during the offseason.
Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks fell just short of the playoffs, as arguably the league's best-hitting team was let down by subpar pitching. Fixing the pitching will be a priority, but Arizona will also have to fill what could be several prominent holes in the lineup.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Corbin Carroll, OF: $102MM through 2030 (includes $5MM buyout of $28MM club option for 2031)
- Eduardo Rodriguez, SP: $66MM through 2027 (includes $6MM buyout of $17MM vesting option for 2028)
- Ketel Marte, 2B: $49MM through 2027 (includes $3MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2028)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF: $32MM through 2026 (includes $5MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2027; Gurriel can opt out of contract after 2025 season)
Option Decisions
- Jordan Montgomery, SP: $22.5MM player option
- Eugenio Suarez, 3B: $15MM club option ($2MM buyout)
- Joc Pederson, DH: $14MM mutual option ($3MM buyout)
- Merrill Kelly, SP: $7MM club option ($1MM buyout)
- Scott McGough, RP: $4MM mutual option ($750K buyout)
- Randal Grichuk, OF: $6MM mutual option ($600K buyout)
2025 financial commitments: $55MM ($123.5MM if all players with options remain on the team)
Total future commitments: $249MM ($317.5MM if all players with options remain with the team)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Zac Gallen (5.100): $14.1MM
- A.J. Puk (4.124): $2.6MM
- Ryan Thompson (4.095): $2.9MM
- Kevin Ginkel (4.033): $2.3MM
- Joe Mantiply (4.029): $1.6MM
- Kyle Nelson (3.076): $800K
- Geraldo Perdomo (3.015): $2.1MM
- Pavin Smith (3.015): $1.6MM
- Non-tender candidates: Nelson
Free Agents
The 2023 Diamondbacks won 84 games to sneak into the last NL wild card spot, then went on a magical postseason run that took them to a World Series appearance. This breakout performance emboldened the D'Backs to spend to new heights, as the club's Opening Day payroll of just under $163.4MM was by far the largest in franchise history. Topping their 2023 payroll by over $47.1MM bought the Snakes five more regular-season wins, but this time it wasn't enough to even reach October --- a 2-5 record in their last seven games left the D'Backs tied with the Braves and Mets on 89 wins, but Arizona fell behind both teams on tiebreakers.
It was a crushing ending for a team that saw several of its investments from last season pay off handsomely, except almost all of the success came on the offensive side. The re-signed Lourdes Gurriel Jr., newcomer free agents Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk, and trade acquisition Eugenio Suarez joined with the rest of the mighty lineup to lead all of baseball with 886 runs scored.
Unfortunately, the Diamondbacks also had the fifth-most runs allowed (788) of any team in the league. Arizona ranked 25th in bullpen ERA (4.41) and 27th in rotation ERA (4.79), as the team's approach to building both pitching units backfired.
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Poll: Who Will Win The NLCS?
The Dodgers punched their ticket to the NLCS last night. Solo home runs from Enrique Hernández and Teoscar Hernández were enough to push L.A. to a 2-0 victory over the Padres in the rubber match of their Division Series. The Dodgers blanked San Diego in consecutive games to take the series in five.
They’ll welcome the Mets to Dodger Stadium tomorrow. New York has waited for its destination since finishing off the Phillies in four games on Wednesday. Almost no one would’ve seen this coming when the Mets bottomed out at 11 games under .500. The nadir of their season coincidentally came at the hands of the Dodgers, who swept New York at Citi Field to drop them to 22-33 in late May. The Mets caught fire after that, playing above .500 ball in each of the final four months of the season.
L.A. and New York closed the regular season as the hottest teams in the National League. Their 20-10 record over their final 30 games tied them with the Tigers for best in MLB. The Dodgers secured home field advantage throughout the playoffs by finishing with an MLB-leading 98 wins. New York clawed back to 89 wins and clinched a Wild Card spot on the last day of the regular season. They’ve had a flair for the dramatic in October, coming from behind in four of their five playoff wins.
Both teams have already come back from the edge of elimination. The Mets needed Pete Alonso’s ninth-inning heroics against Devin Williams to escape the Wild Card series in Milwaukee. The Dodger pitching staff silenced San Diego’s bats in consecutive elimination games in the Division Series.
New York has the slight benefit of two extra days of rest. They’ve had three off days since their last game, while the Dodgers get one rest day before starting the series. Each team’s entire bullpen should be in play for Game 1. The Mets will have their rotation outside of Jose Quintana on regular or extended rest at the beginning of the series. The Dodgers turned to Yoshinobu Yamamoto for five scoreless innings last night. They used a bullpen game on Wednesday.
Neither team has revealed a probable starter for Game 1, but the Dodgers are almost certain to turn the ball to Jack Flaherty before going with Walker Buehler in Monday’s Game 2. The Mets could turn in a few different directions. They have Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Kodai Senga all ready to go. Andy Martino of SNY tweeted yesterday that Senga was likely to get the ball in Game 1, though the Mets won’t finalize that decision until today. The righty is on tight workloads after losing the second half of the season to a calf injury. He’ll probably be limited to two or three innings before turning the ball over to the bullpen. Senga threw two innings and 31 pitches in Game 1 of the NLDS, his first appearance since late July.
The teams have until tomorrow morning to finalize their rosters for the series. The Mets could have an important change. Jeff McNeil has been on the injured list for over a month with a right wrist fracture. Manager Carlos Mendoza said a couple days ago that McNeil had a good chance to be activated. The left-handed hitter started what’ll hopefully be a two-game stint in the Arizona Fall League last night to readjust to game speed.
McNeil made it through the first game with no issues, he told reporters last night (link via Jesse Borek and Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). While the Mets probably won’t make the decision until tomorrow, it seems McNeil will be active. That’d probably push Luisangel Acuña off the roster unless the Mets decide to drop to 12 pitchers despite the longer series.
On the Dodgers’ side, the main injury to monitor concerns reliever Alex Vesia. (There’s also the ongoing question about Freddie Freeman’s ankle but no doubt that Freeman will be on the roster.) Vesia entered with two outs in the seventh inning last night. The left-hander fanned Jackson Merrill to end the inning. He came back out for the eighth but reported soreness in his right side while warming up. The Dodgers lifted him for Michael Kopech, who combined with Blake Treinen to close out the game.
Manager Dave Roberts said postgame that Vesia would go for an MRI today (X link via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). The team is hopeful that the discomfort was just a cramp but wants to rule out an oblique injury. If Vesia did tweak his oblique, that’d probably shut him down for the season. Anthony Banda was the only other left-hander in Roberts’ bullpen for the Division Series. Justin Wrobleski and Zach Logue are the other healthy southpaws on the 40-man roster. Nick Ramirez remains in the organization but was outrighted last month and seems unlikely to be considered for a playoff spot.
How will the NLCS play out? Which team is headed to the World Series, and how competitive will this series be?
What Will Be The Result Of The NLCS?
-
Mets in 6. 30% (2,923)
-
Dodgers in 6. 30% (2,895)
-
Dodgers in 5. 12% (1,146)
-
Mets in 7. 11% (1,081)
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Mets in 5. 7% (673)
-
Dodgers in 7. 5% (531)
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Dodgers in 4. 2% (234)
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Mets in 4. 2% (172)
Total votes: 9,655
Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners' second near-miss of the playoffs in the past two years prompted significant leadership changes before the season drew to a close. Manager Scott Servais was shown the door shortly before the completion of his ninth year on the job and replaced not an interim basis but by the full-time appointment of former M's catcher Dan Wilson as the club's new skipper. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander remain in place and will be under even more pressure to field a playoff club next year.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Julio Rodriguez, OF: $180MM through 2034 (contract could climb as high as $450MM through 2039 based on series of options/escalators)
- Luis Castillo, RHP: $68.25MM through 2027 (contract contains 2028 vesting option)
- J.P. Crawford, SS: $21MM through 2026
- Mitch Garver, C/DH: $12.5MM through 2025 (includes buyout of 2026 club option)
- Victor Robles, OF: $8.5MM through 2026 (includes buyout of 2027 club option)
- Dylan Moore, INF/OF: $3.825MMM through 2025
- Andres Munoz, RHP: $2.5MM through 2025 (contract contains club options for 2026-28 seasons)
Option Decisions
- Mitch Haniger, OF: $15.5MM player option
- Jorge Polanco, 2B: $12MM club option with $750K buyout
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Austin Voth (5.115): $2.2MM
- JT Chargois (5.101): $1.7MM
- Luis Urias (5.014): $5MM
- Trent Thornton (4.148): $2.1MM
- Randy Arozarena (4.129): $11.7MM
- Josh Rojas (4.126): $4.3MM
- Sam Haggerty (4.036): $900K
- Logan Gilbert (3.144): $8.1MM
- Tayler Saucedo (3.112): $1MM
- Cal Raleigh (3.085): $5.6MM
- Gabe Speier (2.172): $900K
- George Kirby (2.151): $5.5MM
- Non-tender candidates: Voth, Chargois, Urias, Haggerty, Speier
Free Agents
The Mariners' 2022 return to postseason baseball after a 20-year drought raised expectations in Seattle. Those expectations have not been reached in two subsequent seasons. The Mariners have played winning ball in each of the past two seasons but have failed to secure even a Wild Card berth. This year's loss is particularly painful for the organization, as Seattle held a dominant 10-game lead on the division in early June but had squandered it by the following month. A resurgent Astros club stormed to yet another AL West crown. There's no indication that front office changes are nigh -- team chairman John Stanton already said Dipoto would remain at his post -- but baseball operations turnover often follows coaching changes if the results don't quickly improve.
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Ha-Seong Kim, Joe Musgrove Undergo Surgeries
Before the Padres’ season came to an end with tonight’s shutout loss in Los Angeles, San Diego provided a pair of injury updates. Ha-Seong Kim and Joe Musgrove both underwent their previously announced surgeries this week. Dennis Lin of the Athletic tweets that Kim had a labrum repair on his right shoulder yesterday, while Musgrove’s Tommy John surgery was performed on Friday.
Kim’s status will be one of the bigger stories of the offseason. The Padres haven’t provided a timetable for the infielder’s return. It’s not clear how much of next season, if any, he’ll be sidelined. The surgery comes at a brutal time for Kim, who is set to decline his end of an $8MM mutual option and reach free agency this winter. The defensive stalwart had an argument for a deal of four or five years at $15MM+ annually if he were healthy.
His market value is much more difficult to pin down now. Kim looked like a lock to receive and decline a qualifying offer midway through the summer. Unless the Padres expect him to be fully recovered early in the 2025 season, they probably won’t make the QO. The surgery raises the possibility of Kim taking a shorter-term contract. That could be a straight one-year deal or, more likely, a two-year pact that allows him to opt out after the first season.
San Diego will need to weigh a qualifying offer decision on both Kim and Jurickson Profar. If they let Kim walk, they’ll decide whether to go outside the organization for a shortstop or move one of their current players back to the position. The Padres used Xander Bogaerts at shortstop down the stretch. They could keep Bogaerts there with Jake Cronenworth and Luis Arraez on the right side of the infield. San Diego also has the option of giving Jackson Merrill a look at shortstop, but the 21-year-old had such a fantastic season in center field that the Padres may not want to change his role again. Bringing Merrill back into the infield would open a second gap to plug in the outfield alongside Profar’s potential departure.
Musgrove is under contract for $20MM in the third season of his five-year extension. The timing of the surgery means he’s very likely to miss the entire 2025 season. Musgrove isn’t willing to already close the book on the year, however. The righty told reporters he’s maintaining some hope that he could contribute if the Friars make a playoff push. “Some guys regenerate tissues faster than others,” he said earlier this week (via Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune). “I’m always going to leave room for the miracle of coming back in a crazy amount of time. But hearing the stories and reading up and doing my homework and talking with our trainers who have rehabbed tons of these, there’s a lot of importance in giving it the time on the front end that it needs.”
The 31-year-old (32 in December) would need an atypically quick recovery to pitch next season. The standard Tommy John rehab takes around 14-16 months. If Musgrove were to make a surprising return, it’d probably in short relief. The Padres will go into next season with Michael King, Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish as healthy starters. Martín Pérez will be a free agent, while Matt Waldron and Randy Vásquez profile better in depth roles. Musgrove’s injury could lead the Padres to acquire multiple starting pitchers this winter.
Ricketts Discusses Hoyer, Cubs’ Payroll
The Cubs missed the postseason for the fourth consecutive season. Chicago finished 83-79 for a second straight year. That’s a frustrating outcome in a down NL Central — especially since Chicago added around $30MM to its Opening Day payroll relative to 2023, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.
Owner Tom Ricketts spoke with Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune about the team’s payroll outlook. Ricketts confirmed that the Cubs narrowly exceeded the $237MM base competitive balance tax threshold — as president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer suggested they would in August. Like most owners, Ricketts didn’t provide a clear answer as to whether he’d be willing to pay the tax for a second straight year.
“The penalties on CBT, they grow over time and so you want to be careful when you do it,” Ricketts said. “And so if there’s ever some point in the future where there’s a large financial commitment you want to make midseason, you have to be thoughtful about it.” Ricketts is referencing the escalating penalties for teams that pay the tax in consecutive seasons. The Cubs stayed below the CBT threshold in 2023, so they’re first-time payors this year. That’ll subject them to a 20% tax on their first $20MM in overages. Cot’s estimates that they were only about $300K over the line, so the actual tax payment (roughly $55K) is more or less a rounding error for an MLB team.
Paying at all means the Cubs would be taxed at a 30% rate for their first $20MM in overages if they surpass the threshold next season. That jumps to 42% for the next $20MM and comes with higher penalties (75% and 90%) for the respective $20MM after that. The penalties would increase if the Cubs paid the tax for a third straight year.
The CBT also includes higher penalties for teams that lose or add a free agent who declined a qualifying offer. The Cubs don’t have any impending free agents who’ll get a QO. If they signed a qualified free agent, they’d forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft and $1MM in international bonus pool space.
Next year’s base threshold climbs to $241MM. Cot’s projects the Cubs around $150MM in CBT obligations. That assumes Cody Bellinger will not opt out of the final two seasons on his contract but does not include arbitration projections. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the entire arbitration class to cost around $33MM if they were all tendered contracts. Moving on from some or all of Patrick Wisdom, Yency Almonte, Christian Bethancourt, Julian Merryweather, Nick Madrigal, Trey Wingenter, Jimmy Herget and Colten Brewer could knock that down to the $20MM range.
That’d leave approximately $70MM before the lowest threshold, so there’s a lot of payroll room before the tax becomes a concern. Ricketts’ note about the potential for midseason acquisitions could point to a preference to stay below the tax line during the offseason. A team’s CBT number isn’t calculated until the end of the season. Salary acquired in midseason pickups counts on a prorated basis in the calculation.
Allocating those resources will be at Hoyer’s discretion. The front office leader is entering the final season of the five-year extension that he signed in 2020. Chicago is still seeking its first playoff appearance since Theo Epstein turned the reins to Hoyer after the ’20 season.
It’s relatively common for teams to sign executives and coaches to extensions before the final year of their deal, thereby preventing from operating in a lame duck situation. Ricketts sidestepped a question regarding a potential Hoyer extension. “He’s under contract, that’s the way I see it,” the owner told Montemurro. “I think he’s motivated. … I think Jed’s going to have a great offseason and put us back in the playoffs next year.”