Cubs Release Hector Neris
The Cubs are releasing veteran reliever Hector Neris, reports ESPN’s Jesse Rogers. The team already passed Neris through waivers without making a formal announcement of the move. He went unclaimed. Neris’ spot on the 40-man roster will be filled by right-hander Jack Neely, whose contract is being selected from Triple-A Iowa. Neely was acquired from the Yankees in the deadline trade sending Mark Leiter Jr. to the Bronx.
Neris, 35, was signed to a one-year, $9MM contract over the winter and has had an up-and-down season in what’ll now be his lone year with the Cubs. His 3.89 earned run average is sound, but Neris has blown five of 25 save situations on the season while sporting career-worst strikeout and walk rates of 23.1% and 13.3%, respectively.
The more prominent factor in the decision to release the right-hander, however, could be a vesting player option that would’ve kicked in had Neris reached 60 appearances or 45 games finished on the season. He’s only appeared in 46 games right now and finished a game 33 times. Neris thus would’ve needed to pitch in 14 of Chicago’s remaining 37 games — a 37% usage rate — or recorded the final out in 12 of them, but if he’d done so he’d have secured a $9MM player option for the upcoming season. Given his shaky performance, the Cubs very likely weren’t interested in allowing that provision to be reached.
While Neris clearly hasn’t had his best season, he’s only a year removed from a sparkling 1.71 ERA in 68 1/3 frames for the Astros. That mark is also deceptive, as benefited from a .219 average on balls in play and 90.5% strand rate that combined to tamp down his earned run average. Metrics like FIP (3.83) and SIERA (3.89) were more bearish, but between Neris’ 28.2% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate, he still had the makings of a solid all-around season. More broadly, Neris’ track record from 2019-23 on the whole is quite impressive. He pitched 297 1/3 innings between the Phillies and Astros, combining for a 3.12 ERA (3.33 SIERA), 30.2% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate, 40.1% grounder rate, 0.97 HR/9, 73 holds and 50 saves.
With Neris returning to the open market, he’ll now be available for any team to sign for the remainder of the season. He’ll only cost his new club the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster/injured list. That sum would be subtracted from what the Cubs are paying him, but Chicago remains on the hook for the bulk of his contract regardless. And, so long as Neris signs with a new organization before Sept. 1 — even on a minor league deal — he can be eligible for that team’s postseason roster. (If he’s not on the 40-man at the time, he’d technically need to be a replacement for an injured player on the postseason roster, but such exceptions happen multiple times quite literally every season.)
As for Neely, he’ll be making his big league debut the first time he takes the mound in a Cubs uniform. The 24-year-old righty was the Yankees’ 11th-round pick in 2021 and has emerged as a legitimate bullpen prospect, brandishing a prototypical fastball/slider combination that’s helped him pitch to a combined 2.42 ERA with a whopping 38% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk rate in 48 1/3 innings across the Double-A and Triple-A levels with the Cubs and Yanks this year.
MLB.com ranks Neely 18th among Chicago farmhands, while FanGraphs pegs him 22nd. The towering 6’8″, 245-pound Neely sits around 95 mph with his heater — and likely looks faster than that, given the extension his massive frame generates. FanGraphs credits him with a plus (60-grade) slider, while MLB.com’s report tabs it as a true plus-plus (70-grade) pitch — noting the massive whiff and chase rates that Neely generated on the pitch late in the 2023 season.
Neely won’t gain a full year of big league service in 2024, of course, so the Cubs will control him for at least six full seasons following the current campaign. Even if he’s in the majors for good, Neely can’t be arbitration-eligible until the 2027-28 offseason and wouldn’t hit free agency until the 2030-31 offseason. His contract is only just now being selected to the 40-man roster, however, meaning he’ll likely retain a full slate of three minor league option years beyond the current season. As such, future optional assignments could impact his arbitration and free agent timelines. For now, he’ll simply focus on carrying his excellent upper-minors work over to the big leagues and establishing himself as a credible major league bullpen weapon.
The Opener: Devers, Phillies, Braves, MLBTR Chat
The Braves already got Tuesday’s news cycle started, and here are some other things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye out for today:
1. Devers nearing milestone:
Red Sox star Rafael Devers is nearing a noteworthy milestone as he sits at 199 career home runs. His next homer will make him the 11th player in Red Sox history to hit 200 homers for the club, and his relative youth at just 27 years old also means that, assuming he hits the milestone before season’s end, he’ll be just the 27th player in MLB history to reach 200 home runs before his 28th birthday. Devers’ march toward 200 homers comes in the midst of a banner year. Through 111 games this season, he’s posted an excellent .298/.377/.591 slash line with 33 doubles, 27 homers, and a career-high five triples in just 488 trips to the plate. That slugging percentage would be the highest of Devers’ career if he can maintain it over the rest of the season.
2. Series Preview: Phillies @ Braves
Despite holding the top two positions in the NL East, it’s been a rough second half for both the Phillies and Braves. Philadelphia has gone just 11-17 since the All-Star break, thanks largely the NL’s worst bullpen performance and a lineup and rotation that have been roughly middle of the pack during that time. Meanwhile, only the Marlins, Rockies and Nationals have seen their rotations yield runs at a higher rate than the Braves in the second half. That shaky performance comes in spite of Chris Sale‘s resurgent campaign, which has put him firmly into the conversation for the Cy Young Award.
With just percentage points separating Philadelphia, Milwaukee, and Los Angeles as they fight for the top two seeds in the NL (and the accompanying bye through the Wild Card Series) and the Braves clinging to a 1.5-game lead over the Mets for the final NL Wild Card spot, the Phillies are now headed to Atlanta for a three-game set. The series will kick off at 7:20pm local time this evening with a pitchers’ duel between Phillies ace Zack Wheeler (2.72 ERA) and breakout Braves righty Reynaldo Lopez (2.06 ERA), the latter of whom is making his first start in three weeks following an IL stint for forearm inflammation. Tomorrow will see Aaron Nola (3.45 ERA) square off against Max Fried (3.62 ERA) in a matchup between decorated hurlers. The series will conclude with Braves rookie Spencer Schwellenbach (4.04 ERA) on the mound against an as-of-yet unnamed Phillies starter.
3. MLBTR Chat today:
It’s been a busy few days around the league on the injury front, particularly in the NL where the Braves, Reds, and Diamondbacks have all lost key members of their respective cores to the injured list. If you have any questions about your favorite team’s playoff aspirations and/or their upcoming offseason, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is holding a live chat with readers at 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.
Austin Riley Diagnosed With Fractured Hand
The Braves announced Monday that Austin Riley has been diagnosed with a fractured right hand that will sideline him for six to eight weeks. With just under six weeks remaining on the regular season schedule, it could very well prove to be a season-ending injury for the two-time All-Star. Riley was hit by a pitch in yesterday’s game, and while initial imaging was inconclusive, an MRI performed Monday revealed the fracture. Atlanta will presumably make a corresponding roster move to place Riley on the injured list and bring up another infielder (e.g. Nacho Alvarez Jr.).
Atlanta also announced that right-hander Reynaldo Lopez has been reinstated from the injured list, with right-hander Jimmy Herget being optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett in his place. He’s been out since Aug. 2 due to inflammation in his right forearm.
The loss of Riley is another crushing blow for a Braves club that has been hammered by major injuries all season. Even on Opening Day, Atlanta lost catcher Sean Murphy to an oblique strain that ultimately cost him about two months of the season. That set the tone for a 2024 campaign that has seen Spencer Strider (torn UCL and internal brace surgery), Ronald Acuna Jr. (torn ACL), Ozzie Albies (fractured wrist), A.J. Minter (hip surgery) and Michael Harris II (Grade 2 hamstring strain) all endure considerable, if not season-ending injuries.
Riley, 27, hasn’t been at his best all season but has, until now, been in the lineup nearly every day. He’s also picked up the pace considerably since a dreadful start to the season. Riley lugged an awful .228/.295/.353 slash into the month of June … and has since erupted with a .275/.339/.531 that falls right in line with his career averages. In a lineup that’s frequently been without some of its best hitters, he’s been a constant alongside designated hitter Marcell Ozuna. Now, it’s very possible that Riley’s 2024 season will draw to a close with 110 games played — although the specific wording of the team’s announcement leaves the door cracked for Riley to perhaps play a few games late in September if he heals more quickly than expected and the Braves are still in Wild Card contention.
In some ways, the fact that the Braves are even still in possession of a Wild Card spot is remarkable. Strider pitched in just two games and yielded seven runs in nine innings prior to landing on the shelf with what became a season-ending ligament injury. Acuna played in only 49 games. Acuna, Albies (90), Harris (72) and Murphy (50) have all played in fewer than 100 of the Braves’ 124 games this season.
While the Braves have had exceedingly poor injury luck, they’ve also had several things go right. Atlanta has improbably gotten not only a healthy season out of Chris Sale but a vintage, Cy Young-caliber showing out of the 35-year-old lefty, who’s thrown just 10 fewer innings this season than he did in the entire four-year period preceding the 2024 season. Right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach has debuted and outpaced expectations. Reynaldo Lopez has improbably gone from reliever to Cy Young-caliber results himself.
Still, the loss of Riley is a gut-punch, particularly given how well he’d been hitting since the calendar flipped to June. The top of the Braves’ order will now need to rely on the aforementioned Ozuna, deadline pickup Jorge Soler and a trio of stars who’ve struggled through down seasons: Harris, Murphy and Matt Olson. Atlanta has gotten solid production out of some bargain-bin pickups like Ramon Laureano and Whit Merrifield, but the offense they’re trotting out on a nightly basis moving forward won’t resemble the powerhouse lineup they were expected to field this season.
Riley will likely be replaced by some combination of Alvarez and Luke Williams, neither of whom has looked comfortable against big league pitching this season. Alvarez, the organization’s top position-player prospect, still has just 38 games of Triple-A experience. He’s hit well there, but the 21-year-old went 3-for-30 in his first taste of the majors earlier in the summer and likely still needs some additional development time. He’d never played above A-ball prior to 2024. Williams is 2-for-17 in the majors this season. The 28-year-old journeyman has seen action in parts of four big league campaigns and is a .218/.277/.284 hitter in 283 trips to the plate.
At seven games back and now down another star player, Atlanta doesn’t have much of a path to overtaking the Phillies for the NL East crown. The Braves currently hold the final NL Wild Card spot but are only two games up on the division-rival Mets and four games up on the Giants. The Cardinals, Cubs and Reds are all within six games of that final postseason slot as well.
Giants’ Randy Rodriguez Shut Down With Flexor Strain
Giants reliever Randy Rodríguez was diagnosed with a flexor strain over the weekend, tweets Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic. He’ll be shut down from throwing for two weeks before going for further evaluation.
It’s a concerning diagnosis considering how frequently flexor strains serve as a precursor to some kind of elbow surgery. There’s no indication that’s under consideration for Rodríguez at the moment, though the team should provide more information after follow-up testing a couple weeks from now. San Francisco already placed the rookie right-hander on the 15-day injured list last week.
Rodríguez, 25 next month, has had a quietly strong debut campaign. He has tossed 50 1/3 innings across 33 appearances, turning in a 3.93 ERA with encouraging peripherals. He has fanned nearly a quarter of batters faced with a solid 7.6% walk rate. Rodríguez has done a nice job staying off barrels and has gotten swinging strikes at a robust 13.7% clip. While he worked primarily in low-leverage spots early in the season, Rodríguez had clearly earned manager Bob Melvin’s trust of late. No San Francisco reliever has more frequently come into key spots (as measured by the game’s leverage index) than Rodríguez since the All-Star Break.
That’s on hold for at least the next few weeks. With five-plus weeks on the regular season schedule, there’s no guarantee Rodríguez makes it back this year. Even a best-case scenario where he’s cleared to resume throwing early in September wouldn’t leave much time for him to build back into game shape. The Giants recently optioned scuffling closer Camilo Doval back to Triple-A, leaving them with Ryan Walker, Taylor and Tyler Rogers and former starter Jordan Hicks as their top late-inning arms.
Padres Notes: Kim, Tatis, De Vries
The Padres were dealt a scare yesterday when Ha-Seong Kim was forced out of their loss to the Rockies after jamming his throwing shoulder diving into first base. San Diego sent the shortstop for imaging today and came away encouraged by the initial results.
“(Early testing) seems to be mostly favorable, but there’s zero timeline to it,” manager Mike Shildt told reporters before tonight’s series opener with the Twins (via the MLB.com injury tracker). “We’re initially fairly pleased with what it looks like. We’re still gathering information.” The Friars did not place Kim on the injured list, though he’s not available for tonight’s game.
Tyler Wade drew into the lineup at shortstop tonight. He’d seemingly be the favorite for playing time if Kim requires an IL stint. Wade provides speed and defensive versatility but limited offensive upside. He entered tonight’s game with a .241/.318/.259 batting line in 134 trips to the plate. Wade only has two extra-base hits (both doubles) all season. Kim is not an impact hitter, yet he’s far more of a threat than Wade. The South Korea native has 11 homers with a roughly average .223/.330/.370 slash across 470 plate appearances.
Kim has avoided the injured list in each of his first four MLB seasons. That durability will be a major selling point for the 28-year-old when he hits free agency during the upcoming offseason. There’s technically an $8MM mutual option on his deal with San Diego, but Kim will surely decline his end in favor of a $2MM buyout and look for a longer-term deal.
If Kim does require his first MLB injured list stint, he’ll join Fernando Tatis Jr. as lineup fixtures on the shelf. Tatis has been down for nearly two months after sustaining a stress reaction in his right leg. Dennis Lin of the Athletic wrote this evening that club officials have suggested Tatis could be out into the middle of next month (though there’s still no official timetable). The injury halted an All-Star campaign. Tatis was one of the most productive outfielders in the National League during the first half of the season, drilling 14 homers with a .279/.354/.468 line in 80 games.
The Friars have relied on David Peralta as their right fielder since Tatis went down. The 37-year-old veteran has been a surprisingly strong offensive contributor, running a .269/.331/.438 slash in 175 trips to the plate. Peralta is coming off a well below-average season with the Dodgers and wasn’t hitting well in Triple-A early this year.
In a bit of minor league injury news, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that top prospect Leodalis De Vries suffered a right shoulder strain that seems likely to end his season. While it’s not believed to be a long-term issue, the Low-A season only runs into the second week of September. De Vries was widely perceived as the most talented prospect in the most recent international signing class. The Dominican Republic native has only elevated his stock in the past few months, reaching Low-A while playing the entire season at age 17. The switch-hitting shortstop has turned in a .237/.361/.441 mark with 11 homers against much older competition. The Padres reportedly made him (and top catching prospect Ethan Salas) more or less untouchable at the trade deadline.
Rays Select Rob Brantly
8:40pm: Manager Kevin Cash told reporters that Fairbanks would be shut down from throwing entirely for two to four weeks (link via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). That makes it seem unlikely he’ll be able to return this season, though Cash didn’t officially rule his closer out for the year.
5:20pm: The Rays announced a series of roster moves today, including selecting catcher Rob Brantly to the roster. He’ll take the active roster spot of fellow backstop Ben Rortvedt, who has been placed on the paternity list. The club already had a 40-man vacancy and won’t need to make a corresponding move there. The Rays also placed right-hander Pete Fairbanks on the 15-day injured list with a right lat strain, as was reported yesterday, with righty Joel Kuhnel recalled to take his spot. There’s still no word on exactly how long Fairbanks will be out of action.
Brantly, 35, is a veteran depth catcher who has frequently carved out part-time roles in the major leagues. He has already appeared in eight major league seasons, suiting up for the Marlins, White Sox, Phillies, Giants and Yankees, with minor league appearances for several other clubs. But all those stints have been fairly brief, as his career highs for games and plate appearances were set with the 2013 Marlins, when he got into 67 contests and stepped to the plate 243 times.
He signed a minor league deal with the Rays this offseason and has been with Triple-A Durham all year so far. He has appeared in 45 games for the Bulls, hitting .262/.323/.418 for a wRC+ of 91. That’s a bit better than his major league track record, which consists of a .225/.287/.326 line and a 68 wRC+ in his 456 plate appearances.
The Rays have split most of their playing time behind the plate between Rortvedt and Alex Jackson this year. René Pinto is also on the 40-man roster but he was placed on the minor league injured list at the end of July and hasn’t played in the past few weeks. With Rortvedt now stepping away for a few days, Brantly will slot in next to Jackson to share the catching duties for the time being. Brantly is out of options, so he may end up getting designated for assignment when Rortvedt returns.
Dodgers Designate Nick Ahmed For Assignment
The Dodgers designated shortstop Nick Ahmed for assignment and optioned rookie outfielder Andy Pages to Triple-A Oklahoma City this evening. The move opened spots on the major league roster for Max Muncy and Tommy Edman, both of whom have returned from the 60-day injured list. Ahmed’s DFA opened one spot on the 40-man roster, while the Dodgers transferred River Ryan to the 60-day IL to create an additional spot. Ryan underwent Tommy John surgery and is done for the season. Los Angeles also recalled catcher Hunter Feduccia and placed veteran backup Austin Barnes on the 10-day injured list with a toe fracture.
Ahmed signed with the Dodgers a month ago. With Mookie Betts and Miguel Rojas out at the time, Los Angeles added Ahmed directly onto the major league roster. The defensive stalwart started 14 games at shortstop. He continued to provide defensive value but didn’t produce much offensively. While Ahmed hit a go-ahead home run to help beat the Giants (his former team) early in his Dodger tenure, he ultimately hit just .229/.245/.292 in 49 trips to the plate.
Between San Francisco and L.A., Ahmed carries a .232/.271/.300 batting line through 221 plate appearances. While he has never been a huge offensive threat, Ahmed has particularly struggled at the dish over the last two seasons. The two-time Gold Glove winner remains a strong defender, but the lack of firepower at the plate has squeezed him off a trio of rosters within the past two seasons. The Dodgers have welcomed Betts and Rojas back in recent weeks. Even with Betts returning to the outfield, they were comfortable enough with their infield depth to waive deadline pickup Amed Rosario after five games.
Los Angeles now adds two more infield-capable players in Muncy and Edman. The former should return to his everyday work at third base, moving Enrique Hernández back into a utility role. Muncy has been out for three months after suffering an oblique strain that proved more significant than the team initially expected. The power-hitting infielder was out to a .223/.323/.475 start to the season.
Edman is a versatile defender who can play essentially anywhere aside from catcher. He has spent the entire 2024 campaign on the injured list. Edman underwent postseason surgery on his right wrist while he was a member of the Cardinals. St. Louis hoped he’d be ready around Opening Day, yet a much slower recovery process kept him from even going on a rehab assignment until mid-July. The Dodgers nevertheless acquired Edman alongside Michael Kopech in a three-team trade that was one of the biggest moves of deadline season. St. Louis landed Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham from Chicago, who centered their return around Miguel Vargas from Los Angeles.
The Stanford product is now set for his Dodger debut. Manager Dave Roberts told reporters last week that Edman will get the bulk of his work in center field (X link via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). A middle infielder by trade, Edman had never started a major league game in center until last season. The Cards gave him 310 2/3 innings there and were rewarded with strong defensive grades — which has been a theme for Edman no matter where he’s played — in that relatively limited sample.
Plugging Edman into the outfield squeezes Pages off the MLB roster for now. The 23-year-old has had a decent if unexceptional rookie season, hitting .246/.305/.388 across 394 trips to the plate. Kevin Kiermaier should move into a fourth outfield capacity while Pages gets everyday playing time for a couple weeks in OKC. Reporter Francys Romero tweets that the Dodgers are likely to recall the Cuban-born outfielder once active rosters expand to 28 players on September 1.
Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times first observed that Pages and Ahmed were being sent out.
Freddie Freeman Playing Through Hairline Fracture In Finger
August 19: Freeman was diagnosed with a hairline fracture, Roberts told reporters on Monday (X link via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). The former MVP will attempt to play through the injury and is in the lineup tonight against Seattle.
August 18: Star first baseman Freddie Freeman came out of the Dodgers’ game against the Cardinals yesterday due to what was at the time termed a jammed finger, but despite initial x-rays coming back negative, the situation has worsened overnight. As manager Dave Roberts told Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times and other reporters, Freeman isn’t able to grip a bat due to swelling. Freeman was out of today’s lineup and is still considered day-to-day, but is scheduled to undergo a CT scan on Monday.
The loss of Freeman would be devastating for a Dodgers club that has had its trio of superstar hitters back on the roster together for just six games since Mookie Betts returned from the injured list to rejoin Freeman and Shohei Ohtani at the top of the lineup last week. Even with Betts having recently returned, however, the loss of Freeman’s .292/.391/.488 slash line is sure to be a major blow to the Dodgers’ offense for however long he’s out of action. With the Padres and Diamondbacks rapidly gaining ground in the NL West title hunt, a lengthy absence for Freeman could mean that the Dodgers might have to go down to the wire in this pennant race without one of their best hitters.
Fortunately for the Dodgers, reinforcements for the lineup appear to be just around the corner. DiGiovanna notes that the club is expected to activate infielder Tommy Edman from the injured list tomorrow, and could do the same with Max Muncy. Earlier reports suggested that Muncy wasn’t rejoining the roster until later in the week, but Roberts said (as per The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya) the infielder is flying into L.A. to make sure he’s available Monday if needed.
Edman, 29, won’t help the club’s situation at first base very much, but the versatile switch-hitter should improve the lineup in other areas. He’s previously been expected to play center field for the club on a regular basis, but it’s possible that he could see additional time on the infield given the small-sample success Kevin Kiermaier has had with the club since being acquired from the Blue Jays. If Edman, Miguel Rojas, and Enrique Hernández can cover the left side of the infield while Gavin Lux handles second base, that would allow Muncy to act as the club’s regular first baseman until Freeman is ready to return to the lineup.
The 33-year-old Muncy has been out of action since mid-May due to an oblique issue but was off to a strong start — a .223/.323/.475 slash line across 40 games that’s good for a wRC+ of 117, matching his 2023 performance. Edman, meanwhile, has not played in the majors this year due to a lengthy rehab from offseason wrist surgery, but the Dodgers still acquired him from from the Cardinals in a three-way trade with the White Sox prior to the deadline last month. Edman sports a lengthy track record as a roughly league average bat with excellent defense at multiple positions that will hopefully make him an asset to the Dodgers once healthy.
Jacob deGrom To Begin Rehab Assignment
Rangers right-hander Jacob deGrom is set to begin a rehab assignment this week. The righty himself tells Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today (X link) that he’ll likely start for Double-A Frisco on Thursday. Manager Bruce Bochy says that it will either be Thursday or Friday, which will be the first of four rehab outings, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News on X. If all goes according to plan, the righty could be back in the majors by September 10.
deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery in June of last year and is now about 14 months removed from that procedure. Once upon a time, it seemed as though deGrom would be part of a trio of heroes riding in to help the Rangers in the second half of 2024. Tyler Mahle also underwent Tommy John surgery last year and was slated for a midseason return, while Max Scherzer opened the season on the IL after undergoing offseason back surgery.
The 2023 World Series champions hoped that they could stay afloat through the first half of 2024 with a strong offense and a rotation mix consisting of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Michael Lorenzen, Cody Bradford, Dane Dunning and others. Ideally, they would have gotten stronger throughout the year and made a strong push in defending their title.
It hasn’t exactly played out that way, unfortunately. The team’s hitters have slashed a collective .239/.308/.381 for a 94 wRC+, putting them ahead of just seven teams in the majors. On top of that, the pitching has been a challenging carousel for the club all year. Due to various ailments, no one on the pitching staff has reached 130 innings pitched yet this year, while Eovaldi and Heaney are the only guys currently on the team with more than 100 frames. Lorenzen was traded to the Royals at the deadline and both Gray and Scherzer are currently on the IL.
The combination of injuries and some struggles around the roster have bumped the Rangers towards the back of the American League playoff race. They are 11 games back of the Astros in the West and then 12.5 games out of a Wild Card spot. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs give them just a 0.2% chance of cracking the postseason while the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are slightly more bullish at 0.8%.
At this point, the club is likely viewing deGrom’s return less as a spark plug for a 2024 postseason push and more about getting a few starts under his belt in preparation for the 2025 campaign. He and the Rangers signed a five-year, $185MM deal heading into 2023, though he’s only been able to make six starts on that deal so far, due to his aforementioned surgery.
The club managed to win the World Series last year even without him, but there’s still three years left on that deal, making him a key part of their next chapter. The righty has been one of the better pitchers in the world over the past decade, though the injuries have been an issue in recent years.
From 2014 to the present, he has a 2.53 earned run average in 1,356 1/3 innings pitched, striking out 31% of batters faced while only walking 5.8%. Among pitchers with at least 700 innings in that time, only Clayton Kershaw has a lower ERA while only Scherzer and Chris Sale topped deGrom in terms of strikeout rate.
In recent years, deGrom has provided even higher quality but with less quantity. He topped 200 innings from 2017 to 2019 but hasn’t even hit 100 since. The 2020 season was shortened to just 60 games by the pandemic and then deGrom missed time in the two subsequent seasons due to right side tightness, right forearm tightness and a stress reaction on his right scapula.
From 2020 to the present, he has tossed 254 2/3 innings with a 2.12 ERA and incredible 42% strikeout rate. That punchout rate is tops among all pitchers with at least 250 innings in that stretch, with Spencer Strider a distant second at 36.9%, while only reliever Emmanuel Clase bests deGrom in the ERA department.
At this point, it’s anyone’s guess what kind of form deGrom will be in when he returns. He is now 36 years old and coming off a lengthy injury absence. He also hasn’t been able to make more than 15 starts in a season since 2019.
The Rangers are set to lose both Scherzer and Heaney to free agency in a couple of months. Eovaldi could be joining them, as his deal has a conditional $20MM player option that he unlocks if he totals 300 innings pitched over 2023 and 2024 or finishes in the top five in Cy Young voting this year. Even if he unlocks that option, he might turn it down and head to the open market since he’s having a strong season and could secure a bigger guarantee over a longer deal in free agency.
If Eovaldi does depart, then the 2025 Ranger rotation on paper is deGrom, Gray, Mahle, Dunning and Bradford, with both Gray and Mahle slated for free agency after next year. Jack Leiter and Owen White are each on the 40-man roster but both have dealt with control problems.
Taken all together, deGrom’s form in the coming years figures to be a significant factor for the Rangers, considering how much they have invested in him and that there’s not a lot of long-term certainty in the rotation picture.
Astros’ Luis Garcia Will Not Return This Season
Astros starter Luis Garcia will not pitch in the majors this season, manager Joe Espada told the team’s beat (X link via The Athletic’s Chandler Rome). Garcia has hit a few snags in his build-up from last May’s Tommy John procedure. The righty will resume throwing this weekend but is no longer pursuing a 2024 comeback; he’ll turn his attention fully to getting ready for next spring.
Garcia set out on a rehab assignment in late June, which is right in line with the standard 13-14 month recovery from Tommy John surgery. The stint did not go as planned. Houston pulled him off the assignment around the All-Star Break after he had a tough time bouncing back between outings. The Astros planned to send Garcia back out shortly after the deadline, but he reported more soreness coming out of a bullpen session and was shut back down.
Neither setback seems indicative of a long-term concern. They’ve been enough to keep Garcia from logging the necessary workload to get himself into MLB game shape before year’s end though. Early in the year, GM Dana Brown had pointed to Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. as potential late-season returnees to strengthen the rotation depth. Neither player will make a big league appearance in 2024. McCullers also battled lingering arm soreness and is expected to miss the entire season.
Those injuries — paired with this year’s season-ending arm procedures for Cristian Javier and José Urquidy — made it necessary for Brown and his staff to add a starter at the deadline. They did so by sending a three-player package headlined by Jake Bloss to the Blue Jays for Yusei Kikuchi. It was a hefty price, but Kikuchi has had a fantastic start to his Houston tenure. The hard-throwing southpaw has allowed only five runs in 16 2/3 innings across three appearances. He has fanned 24 of 66 opponents while generating swinging strikes at a massive 15.3% clip.
Kikuchi isn’t the only midseason reinforcement. The Astros have been without Justin Verlander since the middle of June because of neck discomfort. Espada told the beat that Verlander will take the ball on Wednesday against the Red Sox (relayed on X by Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). The future Hall of Famer tossed four innings and logged 57 pitches in a rehab start at Double-A Corpus Christi last Thursday.
The Astros evidently don’t feel he’d benefit from one more minor league start and will give him his next appearance at Minute Maid Park. Houston has pushed their lead on the Mariners in the AL West to four games. If they lock down a playoff berth, Verlander would join Kikuchi, Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and potentially Ronel Blanco in the mix for postseason starts.
Verlander will come up well short of 140 innings this season, meaning he will not unlock a $35MM player option. He’ll be a free agent this offseason, as will Kikuchi. Garcia remains under arbitration control through 2026. Since he didn’t pitch this season, he’ll likely match this year’s $1.875MM salary. Valdez and Urquidy are eligible for arbitration as well (though the latter is a non-tender candidate). Brown and Blanco are still in their pre-arbitration seasons, while Javier will make $10MM next year and is under contract through 2027.