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Fantasy Baseball: Buying The Dip

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Hello friends.

I always preach patience when it comes to slow starters, but once we get out of May it's officially time to start questioning if what we've seen so far is what we'll be getting for the rest of the season.

For those already rostering these slowpokes, it is a matter of deciding whether it's worth it to keep holding them and root for positive regression, or whether you should abandon all hope and try to ship them out for whatever loose change you can find. And if you don't have any early-season disappointments, it's about whether you should be bargain hunting and betting on the come, looking to acquire the early-round duds whose presence is currently infuriating one of your fellow managers.

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Pirates Sign Luis Cessa To Minor League Contract

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The Pirates have signed right-hander Luis Cessa to a minor league deal, as first reported by Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (X link). Cessa was released from a pact with the Royals on June 1.

It’s the second non-roster rotation pickup in as many days for Pittsburgh. The Bucs added Jake Woodford on a minor league deal last night shortly after he was outrighted by the White Sox. Unlike Woodford, Cessa hasn’t seen any major league action in 2024. He pitched fairly well in Triple-A, working to a 3.89 ERA through 39 1/3 innings for Kansas City’s top farm team in Omaha. Cessa had a modest 16.8% strikeout rate against a 9.2% walk percentage while starting 10 of his 11 appearances.

Cessa probably wouldn’t have had a chance to crack the K.C. rotation no matter how well he pitched. The Royals have gotten good work from each of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Alec Marsh and Brady Singer. Wacha hit the injured list the day after Cessa was cut loose; the Royals have turned to Daniel Lynch IV to take the vacated rotation spot. Perhaps Cessa could’ve pitched his way into a shakier K.C. bullpen, but he doesn’t generate the kind of swing-and-miss that teams are generally seeking in the later innings.

The 32-year-old has been an effective long reliever in the past, running a 3.39 ERA over 112 appearances with the Yankees and Reds between 2019-21. He struggled to a 4.57 ERA in 80 2/3 frames in 2022 and had a particularly tough season last year. Cessa was tagged for 26 runs in as many innings over seven appearances (six starts) for Cincinnati. Subsequent minor league contracts with the Rockies and Nationals each resulted in an ERA above 8.00 and unsurprisingly kept him from returning to the majors.

Cessa and Woodford join Domingo Germán, Josh Fleming and Michael Plassmeyer as non-roster rotation depth in Indy. Braxton Ashcraft and Daulton Jefferies occupy 40-man roster spots and are optional assignment. The Pirates have Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller and Bailey Falter in the rotation after losing Quinn Priester to the injured list. They’ll need a fifth starter or to use a bullpen game during this weekend’s series in Colorado.

Angels Sign Keston Hiura To Minor League Deal

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The Angels informed reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) that they’ve signed infielder Keston Hiura to a minor league contract. He’ll report to Triple-A Salt Lake after being released by the Tigers last week. He is a CAA client.

Hiura is a Southern California native who starred at UC-Irvine. The Brewers selected him ninth overall in the 2017 draft. Hiura was a top prospect who looked like a budding star when he hit 19 homers in 84 games as a rookie for Milwaukee during the ’19 season. That huge debut showing came with a 30.7% strikeout rate that unfortunately previewed massive swing-and-miss problems. Hiura’s strikeout rate increased in each subsequent season, leading to a cumulative .205/.293/.394 slash between 2020-22.

The Brewers outrighted Hiura off their 40-man roster on the eve of the 2023 season. He spent the year in Triple-A and qualified for minor league free agency at year’s end. Hiura signed a minor league deal with Detroit and played in 49 games for their top farm team. He slumped to a .232/.312/.401 batting line across 199 trips to the plate. Hiura walked at a strong 10.6% clip but fanned 28.1% of the time and only hit six homers. The Tigers released him in conjunction with their decision to option former first overall pick Spencer Torkelson, who’ll play regularly at first base in the minors.

While Hiura didn’t have a great couple months with the Tigers, he has a strong minor league résumé. Hiura owns a .289/.382/.550 batting line in nearly 1100 Triple-A plate appearances over parts of five seasons. He blasted 23 homers in 85 contests as recently as last year.

Initially drafted as a second baseman, Hiura scuffled defensively and has moved primarily to first base. The Tigers played him exclusively at first base or designated hitter. Whether the Angels will give him any work at the keystone isn’t clear, but Hiura offers an alternative to struggling first baseman Nolan Schanuel. Last year’s #11 overall pick is hitting .211/.279/.333 over 231 plate appearances in his first full professional season.

Tigers Notes: Baez, Kreidler, McKinstry, Flaherty

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Javier Báez’s rough season continues, as the Tigers placed the veteran shortstop on the 10-day injured list before tonight’s game against the Nationals. The placement, which is retroactive to June 9, is due to lumbar spine inflammation. Ryan Kreidler is up from Triple-A Toledo to take the open active roster spot.

Báez told the Detroit beat that he was headed to Florida for additional testing (link via Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic). The Tigers haven’t provided a timeline for his return, though he’s expected to be out beyond the minimal stint. Báez has battled back discomfort dating to Spring Training, which could be a contributing factor to the worst performance of his career.

The two-time All-Star has only hit one home run over 196 plate appearances. He’s hitting .183/.209/.247 across 53 games. Among hitters with 150+ trips to the plate, only Mickey Moniak has a lower on-base percentage. Tim Anderson and Moniak are the only such hitters who have made less of a power impact. Báez has rated as a slightly below-average defender over 451 2/3 innings at shortstop. The overall production is well below replacement level.

Báez now carries a .223/.264/.344 slash line in 333 games since signing a six-year, $140MM free agent contract with Detroit. Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris downplayed the chances of moving on from Báez entirely in an appearance on MLB Network late last month. That won’t need to be a consideration while he’s on the injured list, but the Tigers clearly need much better production out of the position. Detroit is last in all three triple slash stats from their shortstops on the year.

For now, that task will fall on Kreidler and Zach McKinstry. Manager A.J. Hinch indicated that duo will split the shortstop reps while Báez is on the shelf. The lefty-hitting McKinstry and righty-swinging Kreidler will form something of a platoon, although Hinch indicated Kreidler won’t be completely shielded from right-handed pitching. With the Nats starting lefty Mitchell Parker this evening, Kreidler is in the lineup for his first MLB work of the season.

The UCLA product appeared in 37 big league contests between 2022-23. Kreidler didn’t hit much in that limited look, turning in a .165/.220/.209 slash over 102 plate appearances. He owns a .242/.362/.448 mark with a lofty 27.1% strikeout rate in parts of four seasons with Toledo. McKinstry has hit .225/.296/.341 in 624 MLB plate appearances since the Tigers acquired him from the Cubs just before the start of last season. He’s a career .219/.284/.365 hitter versus right-handed pitching.

While the Tigers are patching things together on the infield, they seem to have dodged a bullet in the rotation. Jack Flaherty exited last week’s start against the Rangers after experiencing back tightness. He hasn’t pitched since then but seems on track to avoid the injured list. As noted by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press, Flaherty received an injection yesterday and is lined up to take the ball during this weekend’s series against the Astros. Signed to a one-year pillow contract over the winter, Flaherty is pitching at an All-Star level. He owns a 3.22 ERA while striking out more than a third of his opponents over his first 12 starts.

Pirates Claim Dennis Santana, Designate Jose Hernandez

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The Pirates announced they’ve claimed reliever Dennis Santana off waivers from the Yankees. Pittsburgh designated Jose Hernandez for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot. The Bucs also recalled Ryder Ryan from Triple-A Indianapolis to take the bullpen spot opened by yesterday’s designation of Ben Heller.

Santana, 28, signed a minor league deal with New York over the offseason. He cracked the Yankee roster within the first week of the season. Santana tossed 27 1/3 innings, typically in middle relief, in the Bronx. While he had a decent run through the season’s first month, he’s run into harder times since the calendar flipped to May. Santana allowed 6.26 earned runs per nine while striking out a personal-low 16.5% of batters faced altogether.

The right-hander has posted an ERA above 5.00 in three consecutive seasons. Santana has nevertheless caught the attention of various teams as a middle innings target. Pittsburgh will be his fifth team dating back to 2021. Santana throws relatively hard, sitting in the 95-96 MPH range with his sinker and four-seam fastball. Until this season, that had generally translated into average swing-and-miss rates against MLB hitters.

Santana has exhausted his minor league options. He’ll step directly into Pittsburgh’s bullpen once he reports to the team. The Pirates need to keep him in the majors or again send him into DFA limbo. Santana surpassed the four-year service threshold this season and would be eligible for arbitration for two more years if he pitches well enough to hold the roster spot.

Hernandez, a 6’3″ southpaw, was the third pick in the 2022 Rule 5 draft. The Bucs stashed him in low-leverage relief last season to gain his long-term contractual rights from the Dodgers. While Hernandez struggled to a 4.97 ERA across 50 2/3 innings, his 27.8% strikeout percentage was reason for optimism that he could be a long-term bullpen piece.

The 26-year-old has had a tough follow-up season, most of which has been spent in Indianapolis. Hernandez has allowed 12 runs over 15 1/3 Triple-A frames. He has fanned 21 of 75 batters faced (a solid 28% clip) but walked nine. Hernandez has been limited to 5 1/3 frames of two-run ball at the MLB level this season. His 81.6 MPH average slider velocity and 93.1 MPH fastball speed are each down more than a mile per hour relative to last year.

Pittsburgh will trade Hernandez or put him on waivers within the next few days. He’s in his first of three option years and has a solid track record of missing bats in the minors, so it wouldn’t be surprising if another team takes a low-cost flier.

White Sox Promote Drew Thorpe For MLB Debut

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June 11: The White Sox have officially announced Thorpe’s selection today. Left-hander Sammy Peralta was optioned to open a spot on the active roster. To open a spot on the 40-man, right-hander Dominic Leone was transferred to the 60-day injured list. Leone was put on the 15-day IL about three weeks ago due to inflammation in his throwing elbow and it now appears the Sox aren’t expecting him to return in the near future.

June 9: The White Sox are planning to promote top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe to the majors on Tuesday, manager Pedro Grifol told reporters (including James Fegan of SoxMachine). The right-hander will make his MLB debut against the Mariners in Seattle.

Thorpe, 23, was the headliner of a four player package the White Sox received from the Padres in the deal that sent ace righty Dylan Cease to San Diego back in March. It was the second time Thorpe had been traded that offseason, as the Padres acquired Thorpe from the Yankees as part of the Juan Soto package back in December. As one might expect from a prospect that was part of the return for two superstars in separate blockbusters during the same offseason, Thorpe is a consensus top-100 prospect in the sport. The righty currently ranks #41 at Baseball America and #54 at MLB Pipeline.

Prospect evaluation services universally praise Thorpe’s excellent command, ability to eat innings, and the devastating changeup that he complements with a 92-94 mph fastball that’s generally regarded as average and a average-or-better slider that sits in the mid-80s. Aside from his three main pitches, BA also notes that Thorpe mixes in a high-80s cutter and a low-80s curveball. That arsenal allowed the 2022 second-rounder to tear through the lower minors during his first taste of professional ball with the Yankees last year. Thorpe dominated to the tune of a 2.81 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout rate in 18 starts at High-A last year before earning a late season promotion to Double-A.

Thorpe’s star really began to rise with that promotion. The then-22-year-old impressed with a sparkling 1.48 ERA across five starts. The righty racked up a whopping 44 strikeouts in just 30 1/3 innings of work while walking just five. Punching out 40% of batters faced while walking just 4.5% in your first taste of Double-A action is a surefire way to get plenty of attention, and so it’s hardly a surprise that both the Padres and White Sox front offices coveted Thorpe enough to make him a key piece of the trade returns for their star players.

Upon joining the White Sox organization, the right-hander returned to Double-A for the start of the 2024 campaign and has continued to dominate hitters at the level, with similar surface-level numbers in 11 starts this season to his five-start taste of Double-A last year. Thorpe has pitched to a 1.35 ERA in 60 innings of work this year, though his strikeout rate has dipped to a more pedestrian 25% this year while his walk rate has crept up to 7.6%. Even with those diminished peripherals, however, Thorpe has more than proved himself capable at the Double-A level and figured to be in line for a promotion in the near future.

What’s surprising, then, isn’t so much the promotion but that he will skip Triple-A entirely and jump directly into big league action. The White Sox optioned right-hander Nick Nastrini to the minors earlier today, leaving them with just a vacancy in a starting rotation that lost Mike Clevinger to the injured list and now features only Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde, Chris Flexen, and Jonathan Cannon. Rather than call up a veteran at the Triple-A level such as Chad Kuhl or Touki Toussaint to fill out the rotation, the White Sox will instead turn to Thorpe in a bold move to get the righty a taste of big league action.

It’s a decision that could come with financial implications for Thorpe, as he’ll be in a good position to earn a fourth arbitration year as a Super Two player if he remains with the big league club going forward without returning to the minor leagues. Thorpe could theoretically earn himself a full season of service time by finishing in the top 2 in AL Rookie of the Year voting this season, although that would be quite the feat given the massive head starts afforded to players like Luis Gil of the Yankees and Mason Miller of the A’s who have been dominating in the majors all season.

J.T. Realmuto To Undergo Knee Surgery

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3:30pm: President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says the club expects Realmuto to miss “about a month,” as relayed by Matt Gelb of The Athletic on X.

1:15pm: The Phillies announced that catcher J.T. Realmuto has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to June 10, with right knee pain. He will undergo right knee meniscectomy surgery tomorrow in Philadelphia. No timeline for his return was provided. Catcher Rafael Marchán was recalled in a corresponding move.

As relayed by Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer on X, Realmuto missed a few games in May due to knee soreness and has been “tolerating” the injury since. The Phils were planning to give Realmuto more rest for the issue but it seems it was decided that surgery was the necessary path forward.

More information will perhaps be provided about when the club expects Realmuto to return but he’ll surely be out multiple weeks. Just over a year ago, Realmuto’s teammate Cristian Pache underwent a lateral meniscectomy on his right knee with the Phils announcing an expected absence of four to six weeks.

Pache was indeed able to return in that time frame, though it can’t necessarily be assumed that Realmuto is slated for a similar absence. For one thing, each injury is different and individuals heal at different rates. Realmuto is 33 years old now while Pache was 24 years old last year. It’s also possible that the club may be cautious with Realmuto given that he’s a catcher and bending at the knees is such a regular part of the gig.

For however long he’s out, it’s a rough blow for the Phils, as Realmuto has been one of the best catchers in the league for quite some time. They are also without Trea Turner, Brandon Marsh and Kody Clemens, so they now have four position players on the injured list.

Realmuto has hit .261/.309/.411 this year with seven home runs, leading to a wRC+ of 105. He’s also generally graded as one of the best catchers at stifling the running game. Since being acquired by the Phillies from the Marlins prior to the 2019 season, he has slashed .266/.330/.463 for a 112 wRC+ and produced 22.1 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs.

His absence will leave the Phils with just two healthy catchers on their 40-man roster in Marchán and Garrett Stubbs, which is less than ideal. Stubbs has a career batting line of .213/.289/.316 along with fairly uninspiring grades for his glovework. Marchán has hit .242/.331/.342 in the minors since the start of 2021 and has just 65 major league plate appearances, though he does have a strong defensive reputation.

With Realmuto likely back in a few weeks, the club won’t be looking to replace Realmuto with a blockbuster deal, but they may keep their eyes open for smaller transactions. The Mets just designated Tomás Nido for assignment and also released Omar Narváez last week. If Realmuto experiences some setback between now and the deadline, perhaps the Phils will look to trade for someone like Danny Jansen, Elias Díaz or Carson Kelly, though it’s not clear those players would be available and the Phils will surely be hoping they don’t even have to think about such a plan.

For now, there may be no need to panic. The Phils have the best winning percentage in baseball and have a nine-game lead over Atlanta in the National League East. Even if Realmuto’s absence hurts them a little going forward, they have a nice cushion and will likely be getting him back somewhere in the vicinity of the trade deadline.

Red Sox Designate Garrett Cooper For Assignment

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The Red Sox announced that outfielder/designated hitter Masataka Yoshida has been reinstated from the injured list, with first baseman Garrett Cooper designated for assignment in a corresponding move. Chris Cotillo of MassLive was among those to relay the moves on X.

The Sox have been scrambling to fill their first base and designated hitter mix since late April, as both Yoshida and Triston Casas landed on the injured list around the same time. They acquired Cooper from the Cubs in a cash deal and also signed Dominic Smith.

Neither Smith nor Cooper have played especially well, but Cooper’s results were far worse. Smith has two home runs and has drawn a walk in 11.7% of his plate appearances, leading to a .221/.325/.327 batting line and 88 wRC+.

Cooper, meanwhile, was hitting .270/.341/.432 for the Cubs before the deal but produced a bleak line of .171/.227/.229 since coming to Boston. Now that Yoshida is back, Smith gets to stay while Cooper has understandably been nudged off the roster by that poor performance.

The Sox will now have a week to trade Cooper or pass him through waivers. Given his poor results, the interest is likely to be tepid. He’s played a bit of corner outfield but is primarily a first baseman, where the offensive expectations are generally higher than up-the-middle spots.

Cooper at least has some decent results in his past that could help him generate interest. He hit .274/.350/.444 for the Marlins over the 2019 to 2022 seasons, with that performance translating to a 117 wRC+. Staying in the lineup was an issue, as various injuries limited him to 331 games over that span of three full seasons and the shortened 2020 campaign.

He then slumped a bit in 2023, despite a career high 17 home runs, as he struck out in 28.9% of his plate appearances and slashed .251/.304/.419 for a 96 wRC+. He had to settle for a minor league deal with the Cubs and got onto their major league roster. As mentioned, he performed pretty well, but in a small sample of 12 games. Though his decent batting line with the Cubs was buoyed by a .391 batting average on balls in play and also masked a 31.7% strikeout rate. The Cubs decided to move on in a move that was somewhat surprising at the time but seems wise in retrospect, given how far Cooper’s results have fallen in the interim.

Mets Designate Tomás Nido For Assignment

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The Mets announced that catcher Francisco Alvarez has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list, with fellow backstop Tomás Nido designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Alvarez tore the ulnar collateral ligament in his thumb in April and went under the knife April 23. The club announced an expected absence of six to eight weeks and he has now returned right in the middle of that window.

He hit 25 homers for the Mets last year while also receiving strong grades for his glovework, cementing himself as the club’s franchise backstop since he was just 21 years old last year. He was looking to continue establishing himself in that role here in 2024, though the injury put that on hold for a bit. Now that he has healed up, that plan can get back on track.

While Alvarez was out, the Mets played a bit of musical chairs at the catcher position. Nido, Omar Narváez and Luis Torrens all got some playing time, while Joe Hudson was recently added to the roster and brought to London as an emergency depth option, though he’s now on optional assignment.

Nido was added to the roster when Alvarez went down and slashed .229/.261/.361, decent enough production given his reputation as a glove-first backup type. Narváez hit a dismal .154/.191/.185 and was released last week.

When Narváez was cut from the roster, the Mets acquired Torrens from the Yankees. Torrens has generally been considered more of a bat-first catcher and was hitting .279/.339/.468 in Triple-A at the time the Mets traded for him. In six games since that deal, he has hit two home runs and drawn walks at an 11.1% pace. His .313/.389/.750 batting line will surely regress somewhat, but it seems the Mets are going to roll with him as the backup instead of Nido. If Torrens last on the roster all year, he can be controlled for two more seasons via arbitration.

The Mets will now have a week to trade Nido or pass him through waivers. He is making $2.1MM this year as part of the two-year deal he signed with the Mets going into 2023. The Mets passed him through waivers last summer, just before he got to five years of service time. That likely wasn’t a coincidence, as getting to the five-year mark would have given him the right to elect free agency while keeping all of his money. Instead, he had to stick around in a non-roster depth role in order to keep collecting his paychecks.

But the injury to Alvarez allowed Nido to get back on the roster and cross that five-year mark. That means that, if he clears waivers again, he can keep all that money and become a free agent. In that scenario, any club could sign him for the prorated league minimum while the Mets would remain on the hook for most of the money.

Nido has hit just .214/.251/.313 in his career, production that translates to a wRC+ of 57, but he has a solid defensive reputation that could give him some appeal to other clubs. J.T. Realmuto of the Phillies will be undergoing knee surgery while Yainer Diaz of the Astros is banged up with a right index finger injury and Elias Díaz of the Rockies is dealing with a calf issue.

Cubs Considering Alternatives To Christopher Morel At Third Base

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As noted this morning by Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, the Cubs have “evaluated alternatives” to third baseman Christopher Morel this season, with one such alternative possibly being top prospect Matt Shaw. 

Morel has started 50 of the team’s 66 games this year at third base, taking over from the group that shared the position down the stretch last season: Nick Madrigal, Jeimer Candelario (now with the Reds), Miles Mastrobuoni, and Patrick Wisdom. Madrigal started 11 games at third this year (and filled in as a defensive replacement on 25 other occasions), but he was optioned to Triple-A earlier this month and is currently on the minor league injured list. Wisdom, meanwhile, has played a utility role off the bench, taking reps at first base, third base, right field, and DH. Mastrobuoni also played a utility role before he was optioned in mid-May.

Prior to this season, Morel had only played 180 2/3 MLB innings at the hot corner, having spent more time in his first two seasons at second base and in the outfield. However, he played 156 games at third base in his minor league career – more than any other position – and after his strong performance at the plate last year (26 home runs and an .821 OPS in 107 games) the Cubs wanted to find him a position to keep his bat in the lineup on a regular basis. Unfortunately, his glove has been all but unplayable at third base this year. Morel has already made eight errors, and his -8 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and -11 Outs Above Average (OAA) both rank last among all third basemen. In fact, his -11 OAA ranks dead last in all of baseball.

To make matters worse, Morel’s bat has not been what it was last season. While he is on pace for nearly 30 home runs, his .702 OPS is barely above the league average. That’s not terrible, but his .203/.315/.388 slash line certainly doesn’t justify his awkward fit at third base. His .375 xwOBA (10th among qualified NL batters) suggests he’s due for some positive regression, but even if he starts hitting again, it’s become clear he’s a much better fit at DH (where has has started his other 15 games) than third base.

Unfortunately for the Cubs, they aren’t exactly flush with other options. Madrigal has a smooth glove, but his bat is a serious weakness; he has a .616 OPS over three seasons with the Cubs and a .535 OPS this season. Wisdom is off to a poor start at the plate himself, and his defensive metrics at third base over the past few years have been nearly as bad as Morel’s. Mastrobuoni has never looked like more than a bench piece, and the same could be said of David Bote.

Therefore, unless the Cubs are planning to look outside the organization for a new third baseman, their best solution could be a prospect like Shaw. The 22-year-old is currently playing for the Double-A Tennessee Smokies, with whom he has a 118 wRC+ in 69 games over the past two years. Shaw got the bulk of his starts at shortstop last season, but he has slid over to third for 35 out of 54 games in 2024. His glove will never be a standout tool; like Morel, he just needs a position so he can get his powerful swing and quick legs into the lineup.

Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, and FanGraphs all have Shaw ranked as the No. 3 prospect in the Cubs organization, which is widely considered one of the deepest farm systems in the game. On the more bullish side, Keith Law of The Athletic recently put Shaw 15th overall, tops among Cubs farmhands. Given Shaw’s young age and lack of experience above Double-A, he won’t be the immediate answer in Chicago. As Mooney puts it, the Cubs are “open to the possibility” that Shaw “could eventually become part of the solution.” Until then, the Cubs might just have to hope Morel turns it around at the plate enough to mask his struggles with the glove. He may already be doing just that, with a .934 OPS in his last 10 games.

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