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Rob Refsnyder Suffers Fractured Toe

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Red Sox outfielder Rob Refsnyder was hit by a pitch on his foot during yesterday’s Grapefruit League contest. He told reporters after the game that he had a “crack” in his pinky toe, per Ian Browne of MLB.com. Today, the club confirmed to reporters that Refsnyder has a fractured left pinky toe, with Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe among those to relay the news.

The club hasn’t provided a timeline for the recovery, but it seems certain that Refsnyder will begin the season on the injured list with Opening Day now just two weeks away. All injuries are different, but just for a point of reference, Joe Musgrove suffered a toe fracture in late February last year and returned to the club almost two months later in late April. Sean McAdam of MassLive estimates the injury could cost Refsnyder four to six weeks.

Refsnyder wasn’t going to be an everyday player for the Sox but was likely to be in the short side of a platoon. The righty swinger has drawn walks in 13.8% of his plate appearances against southpaws in his career, helping him produce a line of .270/.376/.380 and a 111 wRC+. That’s compared to an 8.4% walk rate, .219/.296/.308 batting line and 67 wRC+ against righties.

His lefty-mashing has been even more pronounced in recent seasons. He earned a free pass in 15.9% of his trips to the plate against lefties last year, compared to a 15.2% strikeout rate, and slashed .308/.428/.400 for a 133 wRC+.

The Sox have a number of left-handed hitters in their outfield and designated hitter rotation, including Jarren Duran, Masataka Yoshida and Wilyer Abreu. Righties Tyler O’Neill and Ceddanne Rafaela are in the mix as well but Refsnyder would have factored in on occasion when there was a tough southpaw on the mound. That won’t be option for manager Álex Cora early in the schedule as Refsnyder will be working his way back from this injury.

In the meantime, that could open up a bench role for someone else. C.J. Cron is in camp as a non-roster invitee while Bobby Dalbec is one the 40-man roster, but with one option year remaining. It was reported last month that the Sox were interested in adding a righty-swinging outfielder to help pair with Duran, Yoshida and Abreu. They later added Cron but he isn’t an option on the grass.

Given the club was already interested in a righty-swinging outfielder and Refsnyder is now set to miss some time, perhaps they will have a bit of increased urgency to get something done with a free agent before the season starts. Michael A. Taylor, Tommy Pham and Adam Duvall are still available, while free agent Robbie Grossman is a switch hitter who is better against southpaws.

Brewers Notes: Turang, Frelick, Ortiz, Rea

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For a second straight season, Brice Turang will open the year at second base for the Brewers. Manager Pat Murphy confirmed the decision to name Turang as Milwaukee’s starting second baseman last night (link via David Adler of MLB.com). Murphy opined that Turang is poised to take a “quantum leap” forward in 2024 and solidify himself as an everyday player in the big leagues after an up-and-down rookie season that left him with lackluster offensive numbers.

Turang, 24, was the No. 21 overall pick in the 2018 draft and ranked among Milwaukee’s top prospects for several years before making the 2023 Opening Day roster and debuting in the majors. He posted above-average but not elite numbers in Triple-A during the 2022 season prior to that MLB debut, but his first year in the big leagues highlighted some of the limitations in his game. Turang has long been touted as a plus defender and plus runner, but he hit just .218/.285/.300 in 448 plate appearances last season. The resulting 60 wRC+ suggests that Turang was a whopping 40% worse than average at the plate.

While Turang’s 21% strikeout rate was a bit lower than the league average and his 8.5% walk rate was sound, he also put together one of the weakest batted-ball profiles in the sport. Turang ranked in just the fifth percentile of MLB hitters in terms of barrel rate, per Statcast, while his 26% hard-hit rate landed in the fourth percentile and his 85.5 mph average exit velocity placed in only the second percentile. Turang’s sprint speed was elite, but even in spite of his wheels he batted just .268 on balls in play because of that penchant for feeble contact.

Even amid questions about his offensive outlook, the glove and speed will land him another Opening Day nod at second base. That sets the Milwaukee infield everywhere but the hot corner. Rhys Hoskins has first base locked down. Willy Adames will return at shortstop. Heading into camp, it looked like the third base job could be Joey Ortiz’s to lose, but Milwaukee’s decision to experiment with top outfield prospect Sal Frelick at third base has created more of a competition.

Murphy and Brewers infielder coordinator Matt Erickson have heaped praise onto Frelick for his work at third base this spring, writes Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. The 23-year-old has “immediately” checked every box the team would like to see in terms of his footwork in the infield, Erickson tells Hogg, expressing further confidence that Frelick’s mechanics on more difficult on-the-move throws can improve with experience. Erickson noted that the overall package of defensive skills at third base is still not on par with others in camp, but that’s to be expected for a player who didn’t even play at the hot corner in his amateur days. Moreover, both Erickson and Murphy are amazed that Frelick has already come as far as he has.

The result could be something of a split workload for Frelick between right field and third base. The Brewers acquired the slick-fielding Ortiz alongside left-handed rotation hopeful DL Hall in the trade sending ace Corbin Burnes to Baltimore. Ortiz, like Turang, is considered a plus defensive shortstop but won’t get much opportunity at that position due to the presence of Adames. He could log considerable time at the hot corner, though Adler suggests Ortiz could also see time at second base against left-handed pitching. He’s a right-handed bat and natural option to spell Turang, who hit just .188/.278/.188 (35 wRC+) against southpaws.

A strict platoon arrangement for the group might not be the answer, however. While Ortiz can play either third or second against lefties, both Turang and the lefty-swinging Frelick (.184/.279/.289, 59 wRC+) struggled greatly in limited action against left-handed pitching. Right-handed-hitting Andruw Monasterio turned in a .291/.387/.392 slash (118 wRC+) against lefties and could spend time at third base if/when Ortiz slides over to the keystone to spell Turang against southpaws. Similarly, outfielder Joey Wiemer (.267/.298/.517, 115 wRC+ against lefties) could potentially spell Frelick against lefties.

If anything, Frelick’s burgeoning versatility and the blend of right- and left-handed-hitting infield/outfield options only gives Murphy more fuel to play matchups against opposing pitchers. Importantly, all of Turang, Ortiz, Frelick, Wiemer and Monasterio grade as above-average to plus defenders at their respective positions (at least, in the case of the outfield with regard to Frelick). There’s considerable opportunity for all five to work their way into the lineup for semi-regular playing time, if not more.

As far as the Milwaukee rotation is concerned, there’s still some fine tuning to be sorted out, but one open question became clear this week when Murphy confirmed that right-hander Colin Rea will be in his rotation (via Adler) He’ll be penciled into a starting staff that also includes Freddy Peralta and Jakob Junis. Veteran Wade Miley has been behind schedule due to shoulder troubles but progressed to facing teammates in a simulated game today, tweets Hogg. A firm timeline for his return remains unclear and dependent on how he continues to progress.

Rea, however, will be assured a starting job. That’s a notable development for a journeyman right-hander who’s bounced from the Padres, to the Marlins, to the Cubs, to the Brewers, to Japan and back to Milwaukee. The 33-year-old pitched 124 2/3 innings for the Brew Crew in 2023, logging a 4.55 ERA with strong command and solid ground-ball tendencies but a slightly below-average strikeout rate. He’s been sharp so far in spring training, firing eight innings — including four no-hit frames his last time out — with a dozen strikeouts and just two walks.

Rea inked a one-year, $4.5MM deal back on Nov. 2. He’ll earn a $3.5MM salary in 2024 and is guaranteed that plus a $1MM buyout on a $5.5MM option for the 2025 season. He can also pick up an additional $500K of incentives each season, based on innings pitched, giving him the opportunity to earn $10MM over the next two seasons in Milwaukee.

Nationals Outright Carter Kieboom

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The Nationals announced that third baseman Carter Kieboom has cleared outright waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Rochester. There had not been any previous indication that he had been removed from the 40-man roster, so the club’s count will drop to 39.

Kieboom, now 26, was the club’s first round draft pick in 2016. He was selected 28th overall that year and hit well enough in the minors that he was considered a top 100 prospect in the years to come. Baseball America ranked him #41 in the majors in 2019 and then #15 in 2020.

Unfortunately, his progress has been held back since then. He received 371 plate appearances over 2020 and 2021 but hit just .206/.315/.285 in that time. He then required Tommy John surgery early in 2022, wiping out that entire season for him.

He returned last year but health continued to play a role. He started the season on the injured list due to a shoulder impingement and was optioned to the minors when activated in May. He then experienced some lat soreness in the minors. He eventually played 27 major league games and 44 minor league contests for the year, hitting .207/.266/.368 in the bigs and .256/.362/.411 on the farm.

Kieboom has continued to hit in the minors, with a Triple-A slash of .281/.392/.457 over three different seasons. But he’s now coming off two injury-marred seasons and is out of options. The Nats seemingly didn’t have much intention of giving him a run of playing time this year, as they signed Nick Senzel to be their everyday third baseman. It seems none of the other 29 clubs had much appetite to give Kieboom a shot either, as they all passed on the chance to grab him off waivers.

He will now stick with the Nationals but without taking up a spot on the 40-man roster. Players with three years of service time can reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency but Kieboom is just under that threshold, currently at two years and 168 days. Since a year rolls over at 172 days, he is just four days shy of the three-year marker.

If he stays healthy and productive this year, he could earn his way back into the plans in Washington. Senzel is only under club control through 2025 and could find himself on the trade block this summer if he’s playing well, as the Nationals aren’t likely to be in contention this year.

Padres, White Sox Have Recently Discussed Dylan Cease Trade

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Trade talk surrounding White Sox righty Dylan Cease has apparently rekindled in full. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Padres and White Sox have recently discussed the 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up, which aligns with yesterday’s report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, wherein he noted that the White Sox have had several members of their front office present to get first-hand looks at the Padres in recent days. The Friars join the Yankees and Rangers as clubs prominently linked to Cease in the second act of his offseason trade candidacy.

By now, the merits and risks regarding a trade for Cease have been well documented. He’s an affordable — $8MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2025 — 28-year-old righty with two years of team control who demonstrated his upside with a second-place Cy Young finish in 2022 but struggled through a down year in 2023, when he notched a 4.58 ERA with slightly diminished (but still far better than average) strikeout and velocity numbers. Cease has worse command than one would prefer from a top starting pitcher, which has long been an issue, but he and other Sox hurlers have also been harmed by perennially poor defensive alignments behind them.

Last year’s pedestrian ERA notwithstanding, Cease is a durable power pitcher whom other organizations undoubtedly view as a playoff-caliber starter — if not a true No. 1 then at least a strong No. 2-3 option in a postseason rotation. No pitcher in baseball has started more games than Cease’s 109 dating back to 2020 — his first full season at the MLB level. Even if one were to assume that Cease’s 2022 season was an outlier, career-best campaign while his 2023 ERA was somewhat fluky in nature, a look at his entire body of work over the past three seasons reveals strong overall numbers: 526 2/3 innings of 3.54 ERA ball with a huge 29.8% strikeout rate against an elevated 10.1% walk rate. Fielding-independent metrics tend to support the idea that Cease’s talent level lands somewhere in the mid-  to upper-3.00s.

In terms of pure team fit, the Padres are as strong a match as one could conjure up. The Friars’ offseason has been something of a financially motivated reset, but the team isn’t about to enter a full-scale rebuild with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove all signed long-term. The Padres only have three clear starters at the moment in Musgrove, Darvish and trade acquisition Michael King, who came over from the Yankees in the Juan Soto swap.

Adding Cease to the rotation and cementing the top four spots would create a fifth-starter battle including Matt Waldron, Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito, Pedro Avila, Jay Groome and others. The team’s chances of competing with that group vying for only the final spot in the rotation, obviously, would be far greater than needing to rely on two names from that unproven group to carry the back end of the staff. (Some of those names, of course, could be included in a theoretical trade package with the White Sox.)

The affordable nature of Cease’s contract surely appeals to a San Diego club that has slashed the present-day cost of its roster by nearly $100MM. That’s doubly true in that Cease’s $8MM salary wouldn’t put the Padres anywhere particularly close to the $237MM luxury-tax threshold they’re clearly hoping to avoid. RosterResource projects San Diego at just over $216MM in luxury obligations. Cease would be a net $7.26MM in luxury considerations, bringing the team to around $223.5MM. That’d still leave some room if president of baseball operations A.J. Preller wants to add Cease and pursue one more free agent outfielder, as has been rumored; the Padres were connected to Adam Duvall, Michael A. Taylor and old friend Tommy Pham earlier this week.

While Preller’s years of frenetic activity on the trade market lead to constant churn in the farm system, the Padres remain strong in that regard. Each of MLB.com, ESPN and Baseball America rank the Padres among the sport’s top six farm systems, due largely to strong drafting and international scouting, in addition to replenishing some of their lost depth in the trade that sent Soto and Trent Grisham to New York. Top prospect Jackson Merrill looks on track to be the team’s Opening Day center fielder and is surely all but untouchable alongside ballyhooed catcher Ethan Salas. But the Friars have as many as six other prospects who’ve drawn top-100 fanfare, in addition to a slew of near-MLB-ready talent that could entice the ChiSox to part with Cease.

Rays’ Taj Bradley To Open Season On Injured List

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Rays right-hander Taj Bradley, who underwent an MRI after being scratched from yesterday’s spring start, will open the season on the 15-day injured list after being diagnosed with a pectoral strain, manager Kevin Cash announced this morning (X links via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Bradley will be shut down from throwing entirely for “at least” the next two weeks and will be reevaluated at that point. Even in a best-case scenario where he’s cleared to resume throwing at that point, he’d need to build back up and go on a minor league rehab assignment before he’s an option to rejoin the big league rotation.

Bradley’s pec strain is the latest in a series of health troubles for a Rays rotation that is among the most talented in the sport but is also currently among the most injury-ravaged. He’ll join Shane McClanahan (Tommy John surgery in August), Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery in April) and Drew Rasmussen (internal brace surgery in July) on the injured list for a Tampa Bay club that is still awaiting the return of former top pitching prospect Shane Baz, who underwent his own Tommy John procedure in 2022.

On the surface, Bradley’s loss may not seem critical. The 22-year-old debuted to considerable fanfare in 2023 but turned in an uneven season, ultimately finishing the year with a 5.59 ERA in 104 2/3 big league frames. For a pitcher who entered the season widely considered among the sport’s top 50 to 75 overall prospects, it wasn’t the most exciting debut. Bradley had his share of strong performances but struggled more often than not in his first taste of the majors.

Despite the shaky bottom-line run prevention numbers, however, Bradley offered plenty of reason for optimism. His 28% strikeout rate is well north of the league average, while his 8.5% walk rate is solid. He averaged a strong 96.2 mph on his heater and posted slightly better-than-average marks in swinging-strike rate (11.3%) and opponents’ chase rate (32%). His primary issue last year, both in the big leagues and in Triple-A, was seeing an inordinate percentage of his fly-balls end up leaving the yard (19.2% in the majors, 23.1% in 10 Triple-A starts).

That hasn’t been an issue for Bradley at all in the past, however, even in his first run through the Triple-A level in 2022. Prior to the ’23 season, Bradley actually had posted a considerably lower-than-average HR/FB mark throughout his minor league career. Metrics like xFIP and SIERA, which normalize a pitcher’s HR/FB rate, viewed him in a far more favorable light (3.83 and 3.82, respectively). And with 142 1/3 innings pitched in 2023, Bradley was set to enter the 2024 season without any real limits on his workload. A breakout season seemed quite plausible.

Any such steps forward will be placed on hold indefinitely for the time being, which is a major setback for a Rays club that’s already uncharacteristically thin on rotation depth. Tampa Bay will enter the season with Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale and converted reliever Zack Littell in the top three spots of the rotation. Twenty-six-year-old Ryan Pepiot, acquired from the Dodgers in the Tyler Glasnow trade, will likely grab the No. 4 spot on the staff. He’s long been a touted prospect himself and carries excellent results in the majors to date, but injuries have regularly limited him as well. He opened 2023 on the 60-day IL with a Grade 2 oblique strain and pitched just 64 2/3 frames overall.

Rotation alternatives in camp include Jacob Lopez, Tyler Alexander and Chris Devenski, all of whom are on the 40-man roster. Alexander has started games for the Tigers in the past and had been ticketed for a swingman role with Tampa Bay, but he could conceivably get a look early in ’24 now. He and Devenski were both being stretched out to handle at least three innings at a time in camp anyhow, and either could be pushed beyond that point.

In terms of non-roster players, former NPB starter Naoyuki Uwasawa and prospect Mason Montgomery are the most interesting candidate names in the group. Uwasawa, 30, has a career 3.19 ERA in nine NPB seasons and tossed 170 innings of 2.96 ERA ball for the Nippon-Ham Fighters in 2023, but he’s a soft-tosser with sub-par strikeout rates even in Japan. He’s been rocked for 13 runs in just 5 2/3 innings in spring training thus far. Montgomery, meanwhile, has just 16 innings above the Double-A level under his belt and has been tagged for three runs in his 4 1/3 spring frames.

Cash indicated that the Rays will consider several in-house options to replace Bradley in the rotation, though another injury on an already thinly stretched pitching staff will undoubtedly lead to both speculation and some internal discussions about adding from outside the organization. The Rays’ projected $99MM Opening Day payroll (via RosterResource), somewhat incredibly, is already a franchise-record for the club. That casts doubt on whether they’d even be able to bring in one of the second-tier remaining arms in free agency, such as Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger.

That said, there will also be several veteran arms on minor league deals elsewhere in the league who’ll likely opt out in the latter stages of camp, plus a slew of pitchers made available via DFA and waivers as other clubs set their Opening Day rosters. It wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see the Rays add some extra depth in some form between now and Opening Day, particularly if they begin to get the sense that Bradley’s injury will require a longer shutdown period than that best-case outlook of two weeks.

Lucas Giolito Undergoes Internal Brace Procedure

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March 13: The Red Sox announced this morning that Giolito underwent an internal brace procedure to repair the UCL in his right elbow. That comes with a shorter recovery timetable than a full Tommy John surgery and will give the right-hander a chance to pitch the entire 2025 season if things go smoothly in his rehab. He’ll likely still miss the entire 2024 campaign, however.

March 11: Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito will undergo surgery on his right elbow tomorrow afternoon, per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe and Sean McAdam of MassLive. It’s still unknown whether he will require a full Tommy John surgery or a brace procedure, but he’s ticketed for an extended absence either way.

It was reported last week that Giolito has a partial tear in his ulnar collateral ligament in his right arm as well as a strain of his flexor tendon. A decision had not yet been made on the path forward, with the club sending Giolito for a second opinion. After gathering further information, it now seems that it will be necessary for him to go under the knife. Giolito previously underwent Tommy John surgery as a prospect back in 2012.

It seems that some of the details of the procedure will be worked out on the operating table, as the medical team will assess the level of damage in his elbow once they get in there and then decide on the best path forward. Either way, Giolito seems slated to miss the entirety of the 2024 season. A brace procedure is a relatively new alternative to Tommy John that can come with shorter recovery times, but even those rehab windows are in the ballpark of a year.

It’s a devastating blow for both Giolito and the Red Sox. The righty posted excellent results from 2019 to 2021 with the White Sox, with a 3.47 earned run average in that time. He struggled in 2022, with his ERA bumping to 4.90, but seemed to be bouncing back in the first half of last year.

He had a 3.79 ERA through 21 starts as he approached the open market and seemed to be trending towards being one of the top free agents of the 2023-24 offseason. He was traded to the Angels but then saw his performance dip again. He had a 6.89 ERA in six starts for the Halos as that club fell out of contention and put him on waivers. The Guardians put in a claim but then Giolito had a 7.04 ERA in six starts for that club.

As recently as last summer, he seemed to be trending towards a nine-figure mega deal but instead limped into free agency with little momentum behind him. He settled for a two-year, “prove it” deal with the Red Sox, netting a guarantee of $38.5MM. He also secured an opt-out in that deal so that he could return to free agency if he posted better results in 2024.

That now won’t happen and Giolito will stay on Boston’s books through 2025. The club came into this winter looking to bolster their rotation but ended up being fairly inactive in that department. They did sign Giolito but also flipped Chris Sale to Atlanta for Vaughn Grissom, making it a sort of neutral set of moves for the rotation, depending on how the Sale/Giolito swapped was viewed.

With Giolito now set for an extended absence, the rotation is now the same as last year but without Sale. It’s possible that steps forward from their incumbent options of Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford or Garrett Whitlock could make that up somewhat, but it’s nonetheless unideal for the club’s big offseason splash to miss the entire season.

The club has been operating with a bit less spending capacity than in the past. Club president Sam Kennedy said last month that new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has payroll “parameters” that he is operating under. RosterResource pegs this year’s payroll at $180MM, whereas the data at Cot’s Baseball Contracts shows the club has been as high as $236MM in the past. It appears the club doesn’t look favorably on its chances of competing in a competitive American League East and isn’t willing to spend gobs of money to chance a chance at contention that may be narrow.

Free agency still features big names like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. The Sox have been frequently connected to the latter but without anything seeming close, at least partially due to those apparent budgetary concerns. If the club has interest in a more affordable option for eating some innings, guys like Michael Lorenzen, Jake Odorizzi and Noah Syndergaard remain unsigned.

For Giolito, he will be focused on his rehab for the foreseeable future. He will turn 30 years old in July and will turn 31 before his deal with the Sox expires and he returns to the open market after 2025.

The Opener: Dodgers, Padres, Cease, Williams

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As Opening Day draws near, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Dodgers, Padres wrap up Spring Training:

Both the Dodgers and Padres will play their final games of Spring Training today as they prepare for their trip to Seoul, South Korea for a two-game regular season set that will occur a week prior to the rest of the league’s Opening Day. Today’s games will feature both clubs’ starters for Game 2 of the series as they get their final preseason work in before the regular season kicks off. The Dodgers are welcoming the Mariners to Camelback Ranch at 3:05pm ET this afternoon, where right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto will take on youngster Bryan Woo. Meanwhile, the Padres will host the A’s at 3:10pm ET with right-hander Joe Musgrove facing off against veteran righty Ross Stripling.

2. Cease back in the rumor mill?

Right-hander Dylan Cease was the talk of the offseason early in the winter, frequently connected to upwards of half a dozen clubs while White Sox brass made clear that their staff ace was available for the right price. Over the course of the offseason, it eventually became clear that price was too high for interested teams to stomach, and the South Siders entered Spring Training with the expectation that Cease would remain in Chicago to open the year. With just two weeks until Opening Day, it appears some clubs are making a late push to land the righty before the season begins. A report yesterday indicated that the Yankees have returned to the negotiating table in the wake of Gerrit Cole’s recent elbow issues. They aren’t the only team that continues to talk to the Sox about Cease, however, as the Rangers have also reportedly had recent discussions with the club regarding the right-hander. Will the renewed talks lead to a buzzer-beating deal before Opening Day?

3. Williams receiving second opinion:

Brewers closer Devin Williams has been slowed by back issues this spring, and today is expected to meet with a spine specialist in California to receive a second opinion in hopes of ruling out a more serious injury. Williams, 29, is coming off his first season as the full-time closer in Milwaukee and enjoyed a dominant 2023 campaign. In 61 appearances, the right-hander struck out 37.7% of batters faced while pitching to an excellent 1.53 ERA and racking up 36 saves. If Williams were to miss significant time due to injury, it would be a major blow to Milwaukee’s chances in a crowded NL Central division. A lengthy absence could also complicate any midseason efforts to shop Williams ahead of his final year of team control in 2025, should the Brewers fall out of the race early and consider selling at the deadline. Should Williams begin the season on the injured list, the club would likely turn to right-handers Joel Payamps and Abner Uribe for late-inning duties.

Rangers, White Sox Have Recently Discussed Dylan Cease

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Significant trades halfway through Spring Training are rare, yet speculation about White Sox’s staff ace Dylan Cease hasn’t gone away. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this morning that the Yankees put a new trade proposal on the table for Chicago’s expected Opening Day starter. Meanwhile, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News writes that the Rangers are still considering which players they might need to relinquish to try to pry Cease from the Sox.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that the Sox and Rangers have had recent conversations regarding Cease. Rosenthal indicates that Chicago seems to be “getting more serious” about dealing the hard-throwing righty this spring.

Manager Pedro Grifol demurred this evening when asked whether he still expected Cease to start for the Sox on Opening Day. “I don’t know. I mean, how am I supposed to know that,” he asked rhetorically (via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). “I don’t know what’s going to happen out there. I don’t know where other teams are, what their urgency is. … I leave that to our major league scouts, our general manager, the front office.”

While the Yankees’ renewed interest in Cease is tied to Gerrit Cole’s MRI, Texas hasn’t dealt with any recent injuries to their rotation. Yet they went into camp knowing that three of their top starters — Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Tyler Mahle — were going to begin the year on the shelf. Mahle and deGrom seem likely to be out past the All-Star Break as they work back from last year’s respective Tommy John procedures. Scherzer underwent back surgery in December and is expected to be sidelined into June.

That puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the pitching staff to hold the fort for the season’s first couple months. The Rangers have a front four of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Dane Dunning and Andrew Heaney. Left-hander Cody Bradford is the favorite for the #5 job to open the season. Texas optioned Cole Winn over the weekend, taking him out of the mix for an Opening Day job. Owen White and Zak Kent are on the 40-man roster but have a combined two MLB appearances between them (both by White). José Ureña and Adrian Sampson are in camp on non-roster deals but should be behind Bradford on the depth chart.

If healthy, that’s still a solid front four. Yet there’s a fair amount of injury risk with much of that group. Eovaldi has twice undergone Tommy John surgery in his career. Gray has been on the injured list four times in his two seasons as a Ranger. Heaney was healthy last season but lost a good chunk of 2022 to shoulder problems. Even Dunning has a Tommy John surgery in his history, although he has been durable and quite effective for the last three seasons.

Even if that entire group stays healthy, Texas would benefit from another arm who can push Bradford to a long relief role. The southpaw turned in a 5.30 ERA in his first 56 big league frames a year ago. He has excellent control but struggled with home runs last season. That’s likely to be a recurring concern as a fly-ball pitcher without overpowering stuff. His fastball averaged 90.4 MPH.

To his credit, the Baylor product has pitched well this spring. Bradford has rattled off 11 innings of three-run ball, fanning nine against a pair of walks. Still, that’s unlikely to deter the front office from considering ways to upgrade the staff as they look to defend the first World Series in franchise history.

The Sox’s asking price on Cease has remained high, which is why he’s still in Chicago two weeks from Opening Day. The 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up is coming off a down year, turning in a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings. With mid-90s velocity and a strikeout rate that sat above 27% last season, he’s a clear rebound candidate. Cease is under arbitration control for two more years and will make $8MM in 2024. That affordability makes him an attractive alternative to top remaining free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. The Rangers have had a fairly quiet offseason, thanks in part to trepidation about the long-term viability of their TV deal with Bally Sports.

White Sox Showing Interest In Michael Lorenzen

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The White Sox have interest in free agent starter Michael Lorenzen, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The right-hander is arguably the third-best pitcher still on the open market behind Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.

Chicago’s link to Lorenzen comes at a time when trade speculation around staff ace Dylan Cease has been rekindled. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported on Tuesday afternoon that the Yankees made a new offer for Cease. Not long after, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News and Rosenthal separately indicated the Rangers had interest.

It’s not clear if the Sox’s interest in Lorenzen is strictly contingent on a Cease trade. Yet dealing their projected Opening Day starter would leave Chicago looking for innings, if nothing else. Cease tallied a team-high 177 frames over 33 starts a year ago. He has taken a full series of turns through the rotation in each of the past four seasons. Moving a pitcher with that kind of reliability just weeks before Opening Day could leave the coaching staff struggling to piece together innings.

That’s particularly true given the rotation uncertainty behind Cease. KBO returnee Erick Fedde will occupy a spot in the rotation. The Sox will probably give a rebound opportunity to Michael Kopech, who allowed a 5.43 ERA over 30 appearances last season.

Michael Soroka hasn’t logged an MLB rotation workload in five years, largely on account of two Achilles tears. Chris Flexen allowed 6.86 earned runs per nine a year ago. Jared Shuster had an ERA approaching 6.00 over his first 11 big league starts. Touki Toussaint is better suited for a relief role. Rule 5 pick Shane Drohan will start the year on the injured list, while depth starter Jesse Scholtens underwent Tommy John surgery last month. Garrett Crochet is battling for a rotation spot but would be on an innings limit if he secures a starting job.

Even if the Sox held Cease and signed Lorenzen, they’d be unlikely to have an average rotation. Lorenzen would at least raise the floor and mitigate some concerns the Sox could have about getting through a full season, though. He tossed a career-high 153 frames between the Tigers and Phillies last year. His 4.18 ERA was right around league average but belies a season of extreme peaks and valleys.

Lorenzen earned an All-Star nod with Detroit. He pitched to a 3.58 ERA through 18 starts as a Tiger before being dealt to Philadelphia at the deadline. His first two outings as a Phillie were brilliant, highlighted by a no-hitter against the Nationals on August 9. After that point, he was among the least effective pitchers in the majors. Lorenzen allowed an 8.01 ERA over his last nine appearances. The Phils kicked him to relief and only called upon him twice in the postseason.

It’s possible he wore down as he neared the end of his first full, healthy season as a starting pitcher. That presumably played a role in the extent of his dismal finish, although he never looked likely to sustain the low-3.00s ERA he carried into the middle of August. During his successful run in Detroit, Lorenzen didn’t miss many bats or induce ground-balls at a particularly high clip.

The poor finish has apparently held up his market. Rosenthal reported last week that Lorenzen continued to hold out in search of a two-year contract. He has played the past two seasons on successive one-year guarantees valued at $6.75MM and $8.5MM, respectively. Cease is slated for an $8MM salary for the upcoming season. If signing Lorenzen were conditional on a Cease trade, it’d probably be around neutral from a financial perspective — particularly if Lorenzen does move off his ask for a two-year pact.

Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals are entering the third full season of their rebuild, and their lackluster offseason was emblematic of a team more focused on the long-term picture than even feigning an attempt at competing in 2024.

Major League Signings

2024 spend: $9.25MM
Total spend: $9.25MM

Option Decisions

  • Declined $3.3MM club option on CF Victor Robles (Robles was arbitration-eligible and remains with the team after agreeing to a lower-cost one-year deal)

Trades and Waiver Claims

  • Selected SS Nasim Nunez from the Marlins in the Rule 5 Draft

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Nationals lost 91 games last season and entered the offseason with a fairly modest $110MM committed to the 2024 roster. With ample room to add starting pitching and players at various positions around the diamond, the stage looked to be set for some offseason dealings. General manager Mike Rizzo seemed to suggest as much early at last year’s Winter Meetings.

“We’ve got several holes to fill,” the veteran general manager said. “We’ve got our work cut out for us this year, and I think we’re going to take our aggressive approach when it suits us and wait for the market when it suits us. I think we’re going to be busy here. … I think we’re going to be aggressive again this year looking for a bat that can play the corner infield, be it third base or first base or DH or left field, or a combination of all three of those. And then we’ll resort back to getting more pitching.”

Rizzo went on to indicate that he’d be comfortable offering multiple years to free agents “in the right situation.” It was an encouraging slate of comments for Nats fans who have been tracking a series of ballyhooed prospects throughout the current rebuild and looked to the 2024 season as a year that could see the team begin to turn the corner.

Fast forward several months, however, and many of those claims ring hollow. The Nationals spent under $10MM in free agency, didn’t make a single trade and, despite having the No. 5 waiver priority in baseball, didn’t place a claim on a single player all offseason.

Washington did indeed add some corner bats, as Rizzo alluded to, but the impact of those acquisitions doesn’t look to be particularly high. For the second straight season, the Nats bought low on a non-tendered former top prospect to take over at third base. Unlike Jeimer Candelario, however, Nick Senzel isn’t simply coming off one down season. The former No. 2 overall draft pick has never had an average offensive season in parts of five MLB campaigns. He’s a career .239/.302/.369 hitter — about 23% worse than average, by measure of wRC+, which weights for the hitter-friendly home park in which Senzel has spent his entire career to date (Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park).

Health has been a major roadblock for Senzel, who’s been on the injured list seven times in his big league career (to say nothing of multiple notable injuries from his prospect days). If the Nats can finally get Senzel healthy, he’d hardly be the first former top prospect to thrive in a change of scenery. He’s still just 28 years old, and the Nats will only owe him a $2MM salary this season. If he performs well, he’ll be a viable trade deadline chip but also could be a multi-year piece for Washington. Because he’s three weeks shy of five full years of MLB service, Senzel will be controllable through 2025 via arbitration.

The Nationals have already said that Senzel will be the team’s primary third baseman, which displaces their own in-house former top prospect, Carter Kieboom. He’s out of options and now ostensibly looking at a bench role. It shouldn’t come as a surprise if Kieboom himself is moved in a change-of-scenery deal later this spring — perhaps even following a DFA. It’s understandable that the Nats feel ready to move on from Kieboom after myriad injuries and parts of four unproductive big league seasons — but it’s at least a bit surprising that they’re doing so in favor of a player with a very similar career trajectory to date.

Across the diamond, it appears Joey Gallo will get another opportunity to try to recapture the Rangers form that’s increasingly becoming a distant memory. He’s still just 30 years old, but Gallo’s bat has cratered since being traded from the Rangers to the Yankees back in 2021. The slugger belted 110 home runs in just 1716 plate appearances from 2018-21, including a pair of 40-tater seasons, but since being traded, Gallo has a .166/.293/.396 batting line. He’s still walked in 14.5% of his plate appearances and hit for plenty of power, but his already problematic strikeout rate has ballooned to 40.5% in a significant sample of 970 plate appearances.

Gallo won’t cost the Nationals much, but at this point he’s two and a half seasons removed from being a productive hitter. If he goes on a huge first-half run, he could build up some trade value, but even if he’s hitting reasonably well, he’ll be viewed as a volatile rental whose ’21-’23 track record makes it tough for a team to surrender much of note in a trade.

The remainder of the lineup is largely set with in-house names. Shortstop CJ Abrams posted an ugly .300 OBP last season but saw his strikeout and walk rates improve in the season’s second half. He’s also one of baseball’s most impactful baserunners, swiping a hefty 47 bags in 51 tries, and quietly connected on 18 home runs last year. There’s legitimate breakout potential for him this season if he can continue to build on last year’s second-half gains in his K/BB profile.

On the other side of the bag, Luis Garcia Jr. will reprise his role as Washington’s everyday second baseman in what figures to be a make-or-break year of sorts. The 23-year-old was one of the sport’s top infield prospects before making his debut as a 20-year-old in 2020, and while he’s shown off the premium bat-to-ball skills that helped him garner praise (12.4% strikeout rate in ’23), he hasn’t done much else. Last year’s .266/.304/.385 slash (84 wRC+) is right in line with his career .265/.295/.395 output (85 wRC+). He’s been a sub-par defender thus far and hasn’t hit for power or provided baserunning value. He’s young enough to take another step forward, but if it doesn’t happen in what’ll be his fifth season with big league playing time, the Nats might have to look elsewhere for a long-term answer.

Then again, one need only look to center field to show the organization’s patience with homegrown talents. Victor Robles will be back for an eighth season despite not showing much since a promising start to his career. From 2017-19, the once-elite prospect — he ranked among the top 10 in all of MLB at Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus — hit .258/.327/.431 with premium defense. Dating back to 2020, however, he’s a .225/.302/.313 hitter (72 wRC+) in nearly 1100 plate appearances. Back problems limited him to 36 games last year, and his typically excellent defensive grades plummeted. The free agent market offered some affordable alternatives (Kevin Kiermaier, Harrison Bader, old friend Michael A. Taylor), but the Nats opted to stick with Robles, who’ll reach six years of service in ’24 and become a free agent next winter. If he’s healthy and performing even reasonably well this summer, he’ll be a trade candidate.

In right field, the Nats will again give Lane Thomas everyday at-bats and hope he can build on last year’s .268/.315/.468 showing. Thomas hit 28 homers, swiped 20 bags and played a fine right field. He’s only controlled through 2025 and was the subject of plenty of trade chatter last summer. That’ll likely be the case again come July.

Behind the plate, Keibert Ruiz will again serve as the primary catcher. Ruiz popped 18 homers, struck out in just 10.3% of his plate appearances and hit .260/.308/.409 (93 wRC+). He’s already signed long-term under an eight-year extension.

Joey Meneses is likely to open the season as the Nats’ primary designated hitter, but some of the shine has come off the late-blooming slugger after an out-of-the-blue breakout in 2022. Menseses hit .324/.367/.543 with 13 homers in just 240 plate appearances as a rookie in ’22. He saw nearly triple the at-bats in ’23 but still hit just 13 homers with an overall .275/.321/.401 output. For a bat-only player, that won’t cut it moving forward.

Left field is the only real spot that’s up for grabs heading into the season. The Nats dished out minor league deals to Jesse Winker and Eddie Rosario in hopes one can step up to fill that spot. Rosario is the more capable defender and is coming off a better 2023 showing. Winker, at his peak, was the more productive of the two — at least against right-handed pitching. Neither will cost much if they make the roster. It’s unlikely either will return much in a potential deadline swap, even if they’re performing well, but the pair of veterans gives the Nats a short-term bridge to prospects like James Wood, Dylan Crews and Robert Hassell III.

On the pitching side of the roster, the Nats will effectively roll out the same staff that produced some of the worst results in the game last year. Zach Davies, another minor league signee, is the only addition of note. The Nats have plenty of payroll space but will eschew even modestly priced upgrades in the vein of Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger, both of whom remain unsigned.

That will pave the way for a group of Patrick Corbin, Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and Trevor Williams to lead the team in starts again, pending any contributions from Davies and top prospect Cade Cavalli, who’ll eventually return from 2023 Tommy John surgery — likely on a limited workload. Washington is lacking in top-end pitching prospects beyond Cavalli, though names like DJ Herz, Jackson Rutledge and Mitchell Parker could factor into the rotation at some point.

The hope will be that Gray, Gore and Cavalli can all take meaningful steps forward, but there’s reason to express skepticism despite the former top prospect pedigree of each. Gray has never walked fewer than 10.5% of his opponents in his two and a half MLB seasons, and last year’s 20.5% strikeout rate was a career-low. He finally managed to somewhat curb his highest-in-MLB home run rate (2.30 HR/9 in ’22, 1.25 in ’23), but he did so at the expense of strikeouts and more free passes. Gore was immensely homer-prone (1.78 HR/9) but missed bats at a strong level and did reach a new career-high innings total (136 1/3). Cavalli was viewed by some scouts as a future reliever before he had Tommy John surgery, and he’ll now be under a tightly managed workload.

Despite Rizzo’s earlier proclamations about needing to add pitching help and being willing to make multi-year offers in the right setting, he changed his tune dramatically just a couple months later: “I just couldn’t find that starting pitcher that was going to impact us at this time, for not only the right amount of years but the right salary at this time,” Rizzo said in mid-February.

It’s a puzzling statement when each of Alex Wood, Jakob Junis, Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty and Martin Perez inked one-year contracts (for under $10MM, in the case of Wood, Junis and Perez). Each of Kenta Maeda ($24MM), Nick Martinez ($26MM), Michael Wacha ($32MM) and Sean Manaea ($28MM) inked two-year deals with prices that would’ve kept the Nationals’ payroll in the $140MM range, if not a bit lower. The Nats peaked at a $197MM payroll in 2019 and were at $135MM or more in each season from 2014-22.

It’s a similar story in the bullpen, where myriad arms signed short-term deals that the Nationals could accommodate. The Nats’ only pickup was righty Dylan Floro, who has a nice track record but struggled in ’23 while battling a wildly unfortunate .401 average on balls in play despite better-than-average hard contact numbers. Floro is a perfectly sensible pickup, possibly even a bargain, but the Nats have such an undefined bullpen that it’s surprising he was the only one.

Between Floro and the trio of Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey and Tanner Rainey — all controlled only through 2025 — Washington will have plenty of relievers to peddle this summer. Veterans Matt Barnes and Richard Bleier could work their way into that group after signing minor league deals. Another one-year pickup could’ve given them another, though, and while the return on such investments is rarely of note, the Nats clearly had the payroll capacity to at least take a shot.

Perhaps the general dearth of activity stems from uncertainty regarding the future of the team. The Lerner family was reportedly exploring a sale of the club for the past couple seasons before announcing in late February that those efforts were being halted. It’s plenty feasible that current ownership handcuffed Rizzo and his staff in fairly significant fashion this winter, not wanting to take on long-term commitments while exploring a sale of the team. Rizzo, the rest of the front office, and ownership would never publicly state as much, but it’s fair to wonder given the minimal payroll outlay and the number of areas on the roster that remain ripe for an upgrade.

Regardless of the reasoning, the results are what they are. The 2024 season looks like another bleak year for Nats fans, one plagued by lackluster pitching performances and subpar offensive production. But the ongoing rebuild could begin to bear fruit later this season, setting the stage for a more interesting ’25 campaign. Wood and Crews will likely be in the majors by then. Corbin will be off the books. Cavalli could be both healthy and largely free of an innings cap. And the Nats only have $43MM on that year’s payroll, perhaps setting the stage for a more aggressive run through free agency following the 2024 campaign. That’s shaping up to be a deep free agent class, headlined by old friend Juan Soto in addition to Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Alex Bregman — among many others. This offseason was as quiet as they come, but next winter could be more interesting.

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