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Latest On MLB’s Expansion Timeline

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With the A’s and Rays nearing resolution on their long-running stadium disputes, expansion could become a more pressing topic for MLB in the second half of the 2020s. Rob Manfred said earlier this month he hoped to have the next couple major league cities agreed upon by the end of his tenure as commissioner. Manfred plans to retire at the conclusion of his term in January 2029.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that while there are no current expansion plans in place, many high-ranking team and league officials consider it inevitable the league will move to 32 franchises. Passan suggests that’s unlikely to occur before the early portion of the 2030s, a timeline that generally aligns with Manfred’s goal of getting the ball rolling before leaving office in five years. There are clear logistical issues — expansion fees, stadium construction, etc. — that’d need to be sorted out between narrowing the field of cities and putting two more MLB teams on the field.

While the league could get a jump on that process, expansion isn’t yet a priority. The A’s are still figuring out where they’ll play between 2025-27. Manfred said this month that MLB also needed to “get our footing on local media a little bit better” before making significant changes. That’s a reference to the uncertain broadcasting revenues facing a number of teams as cord-cutting has threatened the viability of many regional sports networks.

There will also be another round of collective bargaining negotiations before the expansion process kicks into gear. We’re two-fifths of the way through the current CBA, which expires in December 2026. The last round of collective bargaining resulted in a 99-day lockout over the offseason, the first official MLB work stoppage since the strike in 1994-95. Labor issues also delayed the return to play during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. It’s possible the next round of CBA negotiations could be similarly contentious.

Once expansion does become a more immediate concern, various cities could make a push for teams. Passan reports that early planning is to choose one team each from the East and West. According to Passan, Nashville and Salt Lake City have emerged as preliminary frontrunners.

Music City Baseball was established in 2019 with the goal of bringing a franchise to Nashville. Don Mattingly, Tony La Russa, Bruce Bochy, Dave Stewart and Dave Dombrowski are among a host of high-profile people who have been associated with the project.

Salt Lake City’s push didn’t begin in earnest until last April. Big League Utah, a group led by former Utah Jazz owner Gail Miller, began the process of seeking an expansion franchise. SLC is one of three cities — joining Oakland and Sacramento — that is in contention to host the A’s before their planned Vegas stadium opening in 2028. Landing the A’s on a temporary basis would presumably boost their chances of securing a franchise of their own in the future.

Of course, plenty can change in the intervening few seasons. Nothing is anywhere near set in stone. The process hasn’t yet begun, but it could come into focus within the next couple years. MLB has been at 30 teams since adding the Diamondbacks and Devil Rays in 1998, the longest static period since the league first expanded from 16 to 18 teams in 1961. Passan’s column is worth a full read, as he lists a few other cities that have been floated as possibilities and covers a number of challenges that groups could face as they try to secure a new franchise.

Hollander: Mariners Additions Likely To Be “More On The Margins”

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Mariners general manager Justin Hollander met with reporters this afternoon to discuss the possibility of some late-offseason acquisitions. While Hollander — who is second in the Seattle front office hierarchy behind baseball operations president Jerry Dipoto — left the door ajar for anything, he indicated the likelier course of action was to supplement towards the back of the roster.

“You never know. I think this group of players that we have — our 40-man roster as is — we may add on the margins. We may add in a more significant way, but I would expect it’s probably more on the margins than a real significant way based on where we’re at,” Hollander said (link via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com).

The comments come a couple days after Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported that the M’s have had internal discussions about Matt Chapman, one of the top four unsigned free agents. Hollander didn’t comment on Chapman — the CBA limits what team personnel are allowed to say regarding specific players — but Kramer writes that the M’s conversations about the third baseman occurred earlier in the month.

There was never any indication that Seattle is deeply involved in Chapman’s market. Kramer reports that the M’s interest has been contingent on the four-time Gold Glover lowering his asking price significantly. According to Kramer, a nine-figure deal for Chapman would be a “non-starter” for Seattle. The MLB.com report indicates the Mariners would be amenable to a shorter-term/incentive-laden contract, although that unsurprisingly hasn’t been of interest to Chapman’s camp at the Boras Corporation.

Third base looks like a relative weak point for Seattle. The Mariners dealt Eugenio Suárez to the Diamondbacks at the beginning of the offseason. They brought in Luis Urías in a small trade with the Red Sox and indirectly addressed the hot corner with last month’s Jorge Polanco deal. Installing Polanco at second base pushes lefty-hitting Josh Rojas over to third, likely in a platoon with the right-handed Urías.

Urías enters camp at a little less than full strength. The Mariners reveled today that he is battling some soreness in his throwing shoulder coming out of winter ball (via Divish). It’s not a serious issue but will keep him from throwing across the diamond in infield drills early in Spring Training.

Hollander downplayed any concern about the third base platoon. Asked if the M’s felt they’re vulnerable at the position, he replied: “I don’t really feel that way, no. … We feel really good about what the combination of Josh and Luis can do for us this year.”

That’s the expected tone for a GM to strike publicly. That said, Chapman is the only unsigned third baseman who’d be a clear upgrade on the Rojas/Urías pairing. If Seattle is simply keeping tabs on his market in case the opportunity presents itself to jump in at a lower price, they’re presumably otherwise content with their in-house options.

Seattle has also been loosely tied to the top two remaining free agents, Blake Snell and Cody Bellinger. The link to Snell has primarily been about geography rather than team need. The defending NL Cy Young winner is a Seattle native and there has been some speculation he could prefer to stay on the West Coast after three seasons in San Diego.

Despite that chatter, Kramer writes that the Mariners haven’t shown much interest in Snell at any point during the winter. The M’s traded rehabbing starter Robbie Ray and depth arm Marco Gonzales but have held onto their top five starters: George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Former top 10 pick Emerson Hancock remains on hand as a high-upside depth piece.

Bellinger was arguably a better roster fit, but Kramer reports that Seattle hasn’t considered the former MVP in either of the past two offseasons. The M’s reacquired Mitch Haniger and brought in Luke Raley from Tampa Bay as part of a reshaped corner outfield. Seattle shipped out one-time top prospect Jarred Kelenic, leaving Haniger and Raley as the presumptive starters alongside Julio Rodríguez on the outfield grass.

Seattle has generally preferred the trade route over free agency under Dipoto, particularly with regards to position players. This offseason’s two-year, $24MM deal for Mitch Garver was the first multi-year free agent contract for a hitter that Seattle has given out in Dipoto’s tenure. Roster Resource projects the organization’s 2024 player spending in the $135MM range. That’s a middle-of-the-pack figure that’s right in line with last year’s approximate $137MM Opening Day sum.

White Sox’ Edgar Navarro To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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White Sox reliever Edgar Navarro is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery in early March, the team announced to reporters Tuesday evening (X link via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). He’ll miss the 2024 season as a result and could be sidelined early in 2025 as well.

Navarro, 26, made his big league debut with the ChiSox in 2023, pitching 8 2/3 innings out of manager Pedro Grifol’s bullpen. He was tagged for seven runs on 11 hits and a pair of walks with nine punchouts in that brief cup of coffee, with the bulk of the damage coming in one nightmare outing that saw him yield five runs in a lone inning of work. Chicago outrighted him off the 40-man roster in December to clear a roster spot for free-agent signee Erick Fedde. Injured players can’t be placed on outright waivers, so the fact that Navarro was outrighted a couple months back suggests this is a new injury that occurred in the offseason.

In the upper minors, Navarro has enjoyed better run prevention but still displayed shaky strikeout and walk tendencies. He notched a combined 3.59 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A in 2023 but did so while fanning just 19% of his opponents against a 16.1% walk rate. Navarro kept the ball on a huge 59.8% clip in the minors and at a 53.8% clip in the big leagues, leaning hard on a sinker that averaged 93.6 mph. That’s an encouraging trait, but he’ll need to drastically improve his K-BB profile if he’s to find sustained success at the game’s  top level. The injury in question will prevent his ability to refine that K-BB profile for at least the next year.

Navarro has never been considered among the White Sox’ top prospects, due in no small part to his poor command. He’s shown the ability to miss bats at times and has consistently piled up grounders at borderline elite levels, but the 6’1″ righty has also walked 12.8% of his opponents across all professional levels and plunked a whopping 44 batters in 273 professional innings. In all, he’s allowed 16.2% of his opponents to reach base without even putting a ball in play.

Dominic Fletcher Has “Leg Up” On White Sox’s Right Field Job

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While most of the White Sox’s offseason has focused on players they could trade away, they acquired outfielder Dominic Fletcher from the D-Backs a few weeks ago. Chicago sent pitching prospect Cristian Mena to Arizona to take a look at Fletcher, so it’s no surprise he goes into camp with a good chance at securing a starting job.

General manager Chris Getz told reporters this evening that Fletcher has the “leg up” in the right field competition (via Vinnie Duber of CHGO Sports). If Fletcher secures the spot in camp, it’d be his first Opening Day job. The Arkansas product made his MLB debut at the end of last April.

Arizona didn’t give Fletcher much of a look in the majors. He appeared in 28 games and turned in a solid .301/.350/.441 showing through his first 102 plate appearances. Fletcher spent the bulk of the year at Triple-A Reno. He hit .291/.399/.500 with 10 homers in 334 trips to the plate. Fletcher kept his strikeouts to a modest 18.6% rate and walked at a strong 12.6% clip.

The 26-year-old has posted above-average offensive production throughout his professional career. He owns a .295/.366/.474 line in parts of four minor league seasons. That has generally come in hitter-friendly settings against younger competition, though, which is part of the reason that many prospect evaluators suggest he’s better suited as a complementary outfield piece than a regular. There are still questions about his pitch selection and raw power upside. Baseball America slotted him as the #20 prospect in the Chicago system after the trade.

Nevertheless, the White Sox are in position to give Fletcher an opportunity to try to outperform those projections. They had the worst right field grouping in MLB a season ago. Chicago received a .219/.271/.344 batting line with below-average defense from the position. Oscar Colás was a reasonably well-regarded prospect but posted a miserable .216/.257/.314 slash through his first 75 MLB games. Gavin Sheets’ .203/.267/.331 mark wasn’t much better. Colás and Sheets each have at least one minor league option remaining, so the Sox could send either player back to Triple-A Charlotte without putting them on waivers.

Aside from Fletcher, Chicago hasn’t done a whole lot to bolster the short-term outfield mix. They acquired Zach DeLoach from the Mariners as part of the Gregory Santos return. He’s on the 40-man roster but has yet to make his MLB debut. DeLoach had a .286/.387/.481 showing in Triple-A a year ago. He connected on 23 homers but also struck out at an alarming 27.8% rate. Kevin Pillar, Rafael Ortega and Brett Phillips are all in camp as non-roster invitees. Pillar, as a right-handed hitter, could have the best path of that trio to an MLB job. Each of Fletcher, DeLoach, Colás and Sheets hit from the left side.

The other two outfield spots at Guaranteed Rate Field are locked in. Luis Robert Jr. is a franchise cornerstone in center field. Left fielder Andrew Benintendi had a rough first season in Chicago but will get a chance at a rebound in year two of a franchise-record $75MM free agent deal.

Yankees Notes: Judge, Holmes

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Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge had a challenging season in 2023, suffering a torn toe ligament when he collided with the outfield wall at Dodger Stadium. Back in December, general manager Brian Cashman described it as “a resolved issue” but Judge spoke on it today and didn’t frame it with the same sort of finality. He said it will likely require “constant maintenance” for the rest of his career, per Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News.

Judge still said that he’s feeling good, so it doesn’t appear there’s real cause for concern in the immediate future. Nonetheless, it’s something that could be worth watching going forward. Judge is turning 32 years old in April and it slated to become an everyday center fielder this year, with Juan Soto and Alex Verdugo in the corners. Judge may get the occasional day as the designated hitter, with Trent Grisham taking over in center, but it still figures to be a notable jump in terms of work.

In 2022, Judge got into 78 games as a center fielder and logged 632 2/3 innings at the position, with both of those currently standing as his career highs. Assuming he avoids the injured list this year, he should easily blow past both figures. His career marks have been passable at the position, especially considering his minimal experience there, with three Outs Above Average, -1 Defensive Runs Saved and a grade of -0.4 from Ultimate Zone Rating.

Maintaining those average-ish marks over a larger sample of playing time will something of a challenge. He’ll also be doing so while trying to work against the natural aging curve that generally comes for players as they push towards their mid-30s and trying to keep the toe thing at bay. It’s a lot of minor things but they could perhaps add up over time, with Judge having eight years left on his contract. Last season’s results were nothing to worry about, however. After coming off the IL in late July, Judge hit .245/.408/.557 over the remainder of the season for a wRC+ of 164.

Elsewhere in Yankee news, right-hander Clay Holmes tells Joel Sherman of The New York Post that the club has not yet approached him about an extension. Holmes, 31 next month, is slated to become a free agent at the end of this year.

Over the past two years, Holmes has established himself as the club’s primary closer, racking up 44 saves over those two campaigns. He’s thrown 126 2/3 innings in that time, allowing 2.70 earned runs per nine. He has struck out 26.1% of batters faced and given out walks at an 8.2% clip while, most impressively, keeping 70.6% of balls in play on the ground. That’s the best grounder rate in the majors among pitchers with at least 120 innings pitched over the last two years.

Keeping that kind of production around beyond the upcoming season is surely appealing, especially for a Yankee club that is known to favor ground ball specialists. But since he’s so close to the open market, the Yanks would likely have to pay something close to free agent prices in order to get him to sign.

Perhaps the club feels they can find the next Holmes another way. As Sherman points out, Holmes didn’t have a huge track record at the time the Yankees acquired him. He had a 5.57 career ERA when the Yanks sent Hoy Park and Diego Castillo to the Pirates to get Holmes, before turning him into a lockdown closer.

But as Sherman also points out, the bullpen is on the cusp of major turnover. Each of Holmes, Jonathan Loáisiga, Tommy Kahnle and Caleb Ferguson are impending free agents. Those four are arguably the club’s top high-leverage guys, leaving a lot of uncertainty going into 2025 and beyond. Bullpens can be fungible and it’s entirely possible the picture is drastically changed by next winter, but there’s a decent chance the Yanks will need to go get someone in free agency.

The club’s payroll will likely be a topic of conversation next winter, as they will likely find themselves paying the competitive balance tax yet again. Roster Resource calculates next year’s CBT number as $190MM, even before factoring in arbitration raises for players like Grisham, Nestor Cortes or Jose Trevino. There’s also Anthony Rizzo’s $17MM club option to consider, with a $6MM buyout making it a net $11MM decision.

Next year’s base threshold will be $241MM while the Yanks will be looking to replace impending free agents like Soto and Verdugo in their outfield mix. Perhaps they would prefer to keep their powder dry for those pursuits instead of spending on their bullpen ahead of time.

Kyle Tucker On Extension: Some Talks But No Offer

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Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker addressed the state of his extension talks with the club this week, discussing the matter with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. He said the two sides have had some talks but “not a hard offer or anything like that.” The Excel Sports Management client added that he’s open to those discussions, “whether it happens now or a little later.”

Tucker, 27, has established himself as one of the better all-around contributors in the game. Over the past three seasons, he’s hit 89 home runs and swiped 69 bases. Only 19 players in the league had more homers in that stretch and none of those had more steals than Tucker. His .278/.353/.517 batting line in that time has led to a wRC+ of 138, 16th among qualified hitters in that span. He’s also received solid grades for his glovework in right field.

Astros general manager Dana Brown has been candid about his desire to sign extensions with the club’s players ever since getting the job last year. Around the time of those statements, they locked up Cristian Javier with a five-year, $64MM deal. More recently, they got a new deal done with José Altuve, a five-year, $125MM pact.

There’s still time to get something done with Tucker, as he’s under club control through the end of the 2025 season. However, his earning power will only increase as he moves closer to that date. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows just two position players with between four and five years of service time have received nine-figure extensions since the start of 2015. Bryan Reynolds got exactly $100MM from the Pirates while Matt Olson got $168MM from Atlanta.

When looking at players between five and six years of service time, it clearly takes a lot more money to keep them from getting to the open market. Byron Buxton got $100MM guaranteed but with loads of extensions. Xander Bogaerts got $120MM from the Red Sox in 2019, which was generally seen a team-friendly deal. Nolan Arenado got $234MM from the Rockies while each of Rafael Devers and Francisco Lindor got over $300MM, landing at $313.5MM and $341MM, respectively.

If the Astros are motivated to get a deal done, it would be in their interest to do it sooner rather than later. Barring an unexpected swoon in performance or an injury-marred campaign in 2024, Tucker’s price will only rise over the next year or two. Based on Tucker’s framing of the current state of affairs, it doesn’t seem like anything is close to being completed.

They also wanted to get something done around this time last year but reportedly faced notable gaps in those talks and didn’t seal the deal. Tucker went on to have another great year and bumped his 2024 salary to $12MM, avoiding arbitration last month. Brown recently indicated that the club will make Tucker an offer at some point, but time will tell if it will be enough to get his signature on the dotted line.

The Astros are in uncharted waters when it comes to their finances. Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists their highest Opening Day payroll as $188MM in 2021. This year, Roster Resource has them way up at $240MM. Their competitive balance tax figure is also high for them, currently at $255MM, well beyond the base threshold of $237MM. They have never paid the tax before, having only gone over in 2020 when the taxes were waived during the shortened season.

Going forward, there’s a bit more room but the slate isn’t exactly clean. They already have over $100MM committed to 2025, 2026 and 2027, thanks to big contracts for Altuve, Javier, Yordan Álvarez and Josh Hader. Next year’s budget is at $117MM but arbitration raises for Tucker and Framber Valdez could add around $40MM to that, plus raises for players like Chas McCormick, Jeremy Peña and others. Ryan Pressly also has a $14MM option that vests if he makes 50 appearances this year.

The next two years will see players like Tucker, Valdez, Pressly, Alex Bregman and Justin Verlander reach the end of their contracts. Those expiring deals may open up some spending room for the club but will also require them to produce replacements for those key players, which may involve signing free agents. How they look to navigate that double-edged sword should have a notable impact on the future of the club.

Orioles Outright Diego Castillo

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The Orioles announced that infielder Diego Castillo has gone unclaimed on waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A Norfolk. He remains in the organization and seems likely to get a non-roster invite to big league Spring Training.

It’s a resolution to what has likely been a tumultuous few weeks for Castillo. He has changed hands on waivers four times since being designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks just before Christmas. Castillo briefly landed with each of the Mets, Yankees and Phillies. Philadelphia designated him for assignment a week ago to clear room for Kaleb Ort (whom they coincidentally subsequently DFA and traded to Baltimore yesterday). The O’s grabbed Castillo but DFA him themselves on Sunday when they acquired lefty reliever Matt Krook.

Baltimore succeeded in sneaking him through waivers unclaimed and keeping him around in a non-roster capacity. Castillo is clearly of intrigue to a number of teams as a depth option. The Venezuela native has shown strong contact skills in the minors. He owns a .296/.410/.407 batting line over parts of three Triple-A seasons, including a .313/.431/.410 slash for Arizona’s top affiliate a year ago.

That didn’t translate into MLB success during Castillo’s rookie campaign with the Pirates. The righty hitter put up a .206/.251/.382 showing in 96 games with Pittsburgh two seasons ago. He only appeared at the major league level once for Arizona last year. Castillo figures to open the 2024 campaign in Norfolk behind a deep collection of infield talent on the Baltimore 40-man roster.

Tigers Claim TJ Hopkins, Designate Kolton Ingram

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The Tigers announced that they have claimed outfielder TJ Hopkins off waivers from the Giants. In a corresponding move, left-hander Kolton Ingram has been designated for assignment.

Hopkins, 27, had spent his entire career with the Reds until a few months ago but has been riding the roster carousel a bit lately. Cincy designated him for assignment in December and then flipped him to the Giants for cash. He stuck on the Giants’ roster for about two months before getting bumped off last week. After a week in DFA limbo, he’s now landed with the Tigers.

The right-handed hitter made his major league debut last year but it wasn’t especially strong. He hit just .171/.227/.171 for the year, though in a tiny sample of 44 plate appearances. His work in Triple-A was much more encouraging. He drew a walk in 14% of his 393 plate appearances and also launched 16 home runs. His .308/.411/.514 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 134, indicating he was 34% better than the league average.

Hopkins has mostly played left field in his career but has seen decent amounts of playing time at all three outfield spots. The Tigers have an outfield/designated hitter mix that skews left-handed, as each of Parker Meadows, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Akil Baddoo hit from that side. The club acquired Mark Canha to give them a bit of right-handed ballast but Hopkins will provide them with a depth option. He still has two option years and can be kept in Triple-A until he forces his way back to the big leagues or an opening appears.

As for Ingram, 27, he also made a small-sample debut in the majors last year, tossing 5 1/3 innings for the Angels. He allowed five earned runs in that time, striking out seven batters but also giving out five walks. He spent most of the year on the farm, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A. Between those two levels, he combined for 64 innings with a 2.81 ERA. His 31.1% strikeout rate is eye-catching but his 13.1% walk rate concerning.

The Halos designated him for assignment when they signed Aaron Hicks and the Tigers grabbed him off waivers in the first week of February, though he’s now been bumped off the roster a couple of weeks later. The Tigers will have one week to trade Ingram or pass him through waivers. Left-handed relief is always in demand and he still has a couple of option years, so he could be attractive to any club looking to bolster its bullen depth. If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, he would stick with the Tigers in a non-roster capacity.

Which Teams Could Still Accommodate J.D. Martinez?

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Much of the offseason focus remains on the so-called “Boras four”: Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman — all of whom remain unsigned into Spring Training. There’s one other player from MLBTR’s top 20 free agents who has yet to put pen to paper. J.D. Martinez doesn’t have the earning power of his aforementioned younger counterparts, but he’s another Boras Corporation client coming off an excellent platform year.

Martinez was always going to face some market limitations. He’s 36 years old and has started one game on defense over the past two seasons. Some teams simply won’t want to commit to an aging designated hitter. Still, there’s a strong case that Martinez is the best unsigned offensive player. Much of Bellinger’s and Chapman’s value lies in their defense. Teams that just want a short-term boost to the middle of their lineup could look to Martinez.

Which clubs still make sense as a landing spot?

Strongest Fits

Angels: The Halos aren’t going to replace Shohei Ohtani’s production at DH, but Martinez is the closest remaining approximation. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic has written that the Angels aren’t keen on bringing in a full-time designated hitter, reasoning that Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon might be better served rotating through the position to stay healthy. On the other hand, Aaron Hicks is so far the only addition to a lineup that was merely average despite an MVP season from Ohtani. It’s hard to reconcile that lack of activity with claims from GM Perry Minasian and owner Arte Moreno that the team hopes to compete in 2024.

Mets: Martinez has been most frequently tied to the Mets throughout the winter. The New York Post’s Mike Puma reported a couple weeks ago that the sides remain in contact. Will Sammon of the Athletic has characterized those discussions as due diligence, writing that New York is likelier to turn to 24-year-old Mark Vientos to gauge whether he can be a part of a contending lineup in 2025 and beyond. It doesn’t seem the door is completely closed, but the Mets are at least waiting to see if the asking price falls.

Longer Shot Possibilities

Cubs: It’d be a surprise if Martinez is the remaining free agent whom the Cubs grab. Chicago has been tied far more often to Bellinger and Chapman, both of whom are cleaner fits on the roster. If the Cubs feel Christopher Morel and Michael Busch can hold their own on the infield corners, that theoretically opens DH. It’d leave the coaching staff without much defensive flexibility, though. Boras and Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts traded barbs yesterday after Ricketts was asked about Bellinger, although there’s nothing to suggest that’ll stop Chicago from engaging on any of Boras’ clients.

Guardians: If Martinez’s long stay on the open market drops his asking price, the Guardians could be opportunistic. They’ve taken shots at first base/DH types before, bringing in Edwin Encarnación and Josh Bell in free agency. Last winter’s Bell signing didn’t work, but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t have more success with Martinez. Cleveland has Josh Naylor and highly-regarded prospect Kyle Manzardo as the likely first base/DH tandem. Manzardo, acquired in last summer’s trade of Aaron Civale to Tampa Bay, has yet to make his MLB debut. If Martinez takes a one-year deal in a similar price range as last year’s $10MM guarantee, there’s a case for Cleveland to jump in and keep Manzardo in Triple-A for another season.

Padres: As with a couple other teams in this tier, the biggest question for San Diego is their spending capacity. The Padres have at least one outfield vacancy and want to stabilize the back of the rotation. They’re projected roughly $20MM south of the luxury tax threshold and reportedly plan to remain below that line. That still leaves open the possibility of adding Martinez, but he’d likely account for at least half their remaining CBT space. With multiple areas to address (and a desire to leave some payroll space for midseason help), going big on a DH is a tough fit.

Red Sox: On paper, there’s a fit for Boston bringing Martinez back. They were loosely tied to similar players in Teoscar Hernández and Jorge Soler. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has been open about the desire for another right-handed bat. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo downplayed the fit earlier this month, though, writing that Martinez’s “unique methods weren’t universally loved within the walls of Boston’s clubhouse” during his first stint.

Twins: If Martinez’s market drops far enough, perhaps Minnesota could jump in. The Twins were middle-of-the-pack in production against left-handed pitching a year ago. They added Carlos Santana on a $5.25MM deal to split time with Alex Kirilloff between first base and DH. Martinez is a much better hitter than Santana, though, so there’s a case for kicking the latter to the bench. The bigger obstacle might be Byron Buxton. He’s moving back to center field after knee injuries kept him to DH work for the entirety of 2023. Would the Twins be confident enough in Buxton holding up physically to sign a DH? They have a projected payroll in the $124MM range after opening the winter with a reported spending target between $125-140MM.

Already Addressed DH

A number of teams that could’ve been suitors for Martinez have gone elsewhere to add a starting designated hitter. The Dodgers (Ohtani), Blue Jays (Justin Turner), Giants (Soler), Mariners (Mitch Garver), and Diamondbacks (Joc Pederson) all once made sense but are more difficult fits now.

The Pirates never seemed likely to meet Martinez’s asking price and re-signed Andrew McCutchen. Milwaukee’s signing of Rhys Hoskins was more of a direct addition at first base, but he’s also a right-handed hitter without much defensive flexibility. The Brewers have a handful of outfielders who could push Christian Yelich to DH at times and also agreed to terms with Gary Sánchez on a one-year deal as a backup catcher/DH option. (Milwaukee still hasn’t announced the Sánchez contract nearly two weeks after it was first reported.)

In-House DH

The Phillies (Kyle Schwarber), Braves (Marcell Ozuna), and Astros (Yordan Alvarez) all have clear starters. The Orioles, Cardinals, Reds and Rays don’t have a set DH but have plenty of options who could rotate through the position. The Yankees could theoretically pursue Martinez and move Giancarlo Stanton to the bench. It’s hard to see that happening given the amount of money still owed to Stanton and the 110% tax they’d need to pay on top of Martinez’s salary. The Royals signed Hunter Renfroe to take a corner outfield spot and probably want to give regular run to MJ Melendez and Nelson Velázquez between left field and DH.

Unlikely To Add

A few teams have theoretical openings at DH but have already declared they’re unlikely to make any more notable acquisitions this offseason. Tigers GM Scott Harris said last week that the team doesn’t have “a ton of at-bats available for another everyday-type bat.” They’ll likely turn to Kerry Carpenter as the primary DH.

The Rangers lost Garver in free agency but seem to be up against their spending limit. Last year’s #4 overall pick Wyatt Langford isn’t far off the majors. Texas could rotate a handful of players through DH if they want Langford to get more seasoning in Triple-A. The Nationals haven’t done much this winter and could certainly incorporate another bat. GM Mike Rizzo more or less declared their offseason finished last week, though. Martinez might prioritize a more obvious contender anyhow.

Competitive Window/Payroll Questions

The White Sox, A’s and Rockies are not going to compete for a playoff spot in 2024. Of that trio, only Oakland has completely embraced a rebuild. Chicago and Colorado aren’t aggressively adding, though, and Martinez probably doesn’t want to sign with a clear non-contender at this stage of his career.

Miami lost Soler and hasn’t acquired a new DH. The Marlins haven’t brought in a major league free agent at all. It’s a disappointing offseason for the fanbase coming off a surprising Wild Card berth. Given their dearth of activity, it’s hard to imagine they bring in Martinez, even if he’d be a fairly direct replacement for their biggest offseason departure.

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