Archives for February 2024

Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts spoke to members of the media today, including Jesse Rogers of ESPN, and addressed the topic of free agent Cody Bellinger. “There has been some discussions but it hasn’t become a negotiation yet,” he said.

“We’re just waiting,” Ricketts said. “Waiting for whenever he and his agent are going to engage. It could be any time now or it could be a few weeks. We’ll see where it goes.” Ricketts continued: “Until they are ready to negotiate, there’s not much we can do. We just have to wait for when it gets serious before talking about what the end money amounts are.”

When asked if he had spoken with Bellinger’s agent, Scott Boras, Ricketts said: “I don’t talk to Scott. One of his signature moves is to go talk to the owner. When you do that, you undermine the credibility of your GM. Inserting yourself into that negotiation, I don’t think that helps. I don’t talk to him.”

Boras disagreed with this framing of the relationship, saying that the Cubs called him about Bellinger last winter. “Free agency is about recruiting players,” Boras said. “It’s the normal owner’s signature move to be involved in the efforts of recruiting players and reaching out to me so I can convey to the player the ownership of the team covets them. That is the essence of free agency and it is a custom and practice for ownership to express commitment and involvement. When Cody was a free agent last year the Cubs engaged and were very aggressive in their pursuit. And their process is no different this year. So I am not clear as to what Tom is suggesting.”

Bellinger, 28, came into the offseason as one of the most exciting players available. He suffered through some rough injury-marred seasons in 2021 and 2022, ending up non-tendered by the Dodgers, but bounced back with the Cubs on a one-year deal. He hit 26 home runs last year and slashed .307/.356/.525  for a wRC+ of 134. He also stole 20 bases and provided solid defense in center field and at first base. Given his youth and previous MVP upside, he seemed like a strong candidate for a huge deal, with him and Boras reportedly looking for $200MM or more.

But there have also been factors working against that. One is the lack of belief in his bounceback campaign, with detractors pointing to his tepid Statcast data. His hard hit rate was only in the 10th percentile of qualified league hitters, with his average exit velocity 22nd and his barrel rate 27th. It’s possible that Bellinger chose to prioritize contact over power, as his 15.6% strikeout rate last year was a career low, but the lack of impact may be a concern regardless.

There’s also the prior two seasons to consider, as Bellinger hit a dismal .193/.256/.355 in that time. He required shoulder surgery after 2020 and it’s been suggested by some, including his agent, that he was never fully healthy in that time. Perhaps that’s true but it also could be playing a factor in the fact that he’s lingering on the market in the middle of February.

There are also external factors at play. Not all clubs in the league can plausibly be expected to give out the kind of deal Bellinger and Boras are looking for. Of the possible fits, some of those clubs are working with diminished spending capacity in relation to the ongoing saga surrounding Diamond Sports Group and the general loss of TV revenue from cord cutting. That’s also had domino effects, as the Padres were one of the clubs that had to cut costs, which led to them flipping Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees. The Yanks were seen as one of the best landing spots for Bellinger coming into the winter but they were able to address their outfield via trade instead.

Other clubs that once seemed like viable landing spots have also become less likely. The Giants were alongside the Yankees as a strong fit back in the fall, but they signed Jung Hoo Lee to be their everyday center fielder. The Blue Jays re-signed Kevin Kiermaier. The Angels are apparently cutting payroll and also added Aaron Hicks to their outfield mix. The Mariners acquired Luke Raley and Mitch Haniger while Atlanta got Jarred Kelenic.

That’s led to speculation that Bellinger may need to pivot to a short-term deal with an eye on returning to the open market when the conditions have changed. Ideally, he will have had another strong seasons and silenced some of the doubters. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored that possibility and took a look at where Bellinger might find such a deal.

A return to the Cubs has arguably remained his best landing spot. The club addressed first base by acquiring Michael Busch but center field could still be open between Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki as the corner guys. Pete Crow-Armstrong is perhaps the club’s center fielder of the future but his first taste of the majors was a struggle and he also struck out in 29.7% of his Triple-A plate appearances last year. He’s considered a superlative defender and a threat on the bases, so he doesn’t need to hit a ton to be a viable regular, but there’s an argument to bringing back Bellinger and letting PCA earn his way into playing time. The club also doesn’t have a strict designated hitter so it’s theoretically possible for each of Bellinger, Happ, Suzuki and Crow-Armstrong to get regular playing time in the same lineup.

That doesn’t necessarily mean the Cubs will actually pull the trigger on a deal, but they should have the money to do it. “We’re right there at CBT (Competitive Balance Tax) levels,” Ricketts said today. “It’s kind of our natural place for us. That should be enough to win our division and be consistent every year.”

Roster Resource pegs the club’s CBT number at $208MM, almost $30MM below this year’s base threshold of $237MM. Based on the tenor of the comments from Ricketts, it seems they prefer to stay under that line. That still gives them the ability to make a notable deal, such as one for Bellinger, but the seeming low level of communication between the two sides suggests there hasn’t been too much urgency towards going down that path. It would also likely mean committing to a long-term deal, as any short-term discussions would surely lead to a higher AAV that would push them over the tax line, something Ricketts seemingly prefers not to do. Whether that’s brinkmanship or a genuine reflection of the club’s position remains to be seen, with Opening Day now just over a month away.