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11 Long Shot Trade Candidates

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We're less than 24 hours from the deadline. There has been a flurry of activity dating back to Thursday night, taking a few of the top names (e.g Randy Arozarena, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Carlos Estévez, Isaac Paredes) off the board. We've devoted ample attention to the likes of Garrett Crochet, Jack Flaherty and Yusei Kikuchi.

Every deadline features some late surprises. Talks don't always get over the line, but we're likely to hear about discussions on marquee names who are less clear trade candidates than are the good players with limited contractual control on bad teams. None of the following players are likely to be traded. They've probably each got less than a 20% chance of changing uniforms. There's an argument for teams to listen on these players, though they're of varying ability and trade value.

Tarik Skubal

Skubal might be the best pitcher in baseball. If the Tigers trade him, it'd be the biggest transaction of the summer. He's probably the frontrunner for the American League Cy Young award behind a 2.35 earned run average with a 30% strikeout rate over 130 innings. Detroit is three games below .500 and 5.5 out in the Wild Card race. Last night's Carson Kelly trade shows they're willing to move rentals. Needless to say, a Skubal trade would be in another stratosphere of significance.

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Dodgers Acquire Amed Rosario

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The Dodgers and Rays continue to be two of the deadline’s more active teams, as Los Angeles reacquired Amed Rosario from Tampa Bay.  Minor league righty Michael Flynn heads to the Rays in return in a one-for-one swap.  To create roster space for Rosario, the Dodgers have designated Ryan Yarbrough for assignment

Rosario has now been a deadline pickup for the Dodgers in consecutive years, after L.A. acquired him from the Guardians in exchange for Noah Syndergaard last July.  Rosario hit .256/.301/.408 over 133 plate appearances for the Dodgers following the trade, primarily playing second base with a few appearances at his old shortstop position, after primarily playing short in his previous six seasons with the Guardians and Mets.

After signing a one-year, $1.5MM deal with the Rays last winter, Rosario moved into more of a full utility role, spending most of his time at second base and left field while still getting substantial playing time at shortstop and third base.  The initial expectation was that the right-handed hitting Rosario would mostly face left-handed pitching, but between injuries and his respectable splits, Rosario ended up facing more right-handers than southpaws while hitting an overall .307/.331/.417 across 275 PA for Tampa Bay.  Rosario has a 115 wRC+, which would be a career high if he can keep it going over the rest of the season.

Rosario could just slot back right back into regular second-base duty in a platoon with Gavin Lux, but a larger role is probably in store for Rosario while the Dodgers try to manage several injuries.  With Mookie Betts, Max Muncy, Miguel Rojas, Chris Taylor, and the newly-acquired Tommy Edman all on the mend, Rosario figures to get a decent dose of playing time all over the infield.

With only around $500K still owed to Rosario in salary for the rest of the season, the trade is a cost-effective move for the Dodgers that might pay big dividends, considering Rosario’s quality numbers and his familiarity with playing in Los Angeles.  The deal also continues Andrew Friedman’s long history of trading with his former team, as the L.A. president of baseball operations has swung several deals since leaving the Rays for the Dodgers back in 2014.

Flynn is just over a week away from his 28th birthday, and he’ll get to celebrate by once more changing organizations during his pro career.  A sixth-round pick for the Pirates in 2018, Flynn also spent time in the Mariners’ farm system before joining the Dodgers this season, and he has a 4.95 ERA over 36 1/3 relief innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City.

As with most Pacific Coast League numbers, a look behind the ERA is necessary in the hitter-friendly league, and Flynn has a 32.1% strikeout rate and 9.6% walk rate.  His strikeout numbers have increased exponentially over his last two seasons, and given the Rays’ penchant for uncovering hidden gems, it stands to reason that Tampa has seen something in Flynn that might put him in line for his Major League debut.

Since the Dodgers’ injury woes also extend to their pitching staff, Yarbrough’s DFA counts as a bit of a surprise, as he has been a fairly effective arm for L.A. since being picked up from the Royals at last year’s trade deadline.  This season Yarbrough has a 3.74 ERA in 67 1/3 innings while working as a long reliever and occasional bulk pitcher, albeit with such unimpressive metrics as an 8.9% walk rate and a 13.9% strikeout rate.  That latter number is one of the lowest K-rates in the sport, though he has also been one of the league’s best at limiting hard contact, albeit with some significant help from a .214 BABIP.

Yarbrough’s 4.96 SIERA apparently carried more weight for the Dodgers than his ERA of over a run lower, so Los Angeles has now sent the veteran to the DFA wire.  The left-hander’s ability to eat innings out of the pen could make him a candidate for a waiver claim, particularly since several teams might have holes to fill in their relief corps if other relievers are traded by the deadline.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Dodgers were acquiring Rosario. Robert Murray of FanSided reported Flynn was going back to Tampa. Juan Toribio of MLB.com first reported the Yarbrough DFA.

Guardians Acquire Lane Thomas

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The Guardians have landed outfielder Lane Thomas in a trade with the Nationals, both teams announced. A trio of prospects — left-hander Alex Clemmey and infielders Jose Tena and Rafael Ramirez — are going back to Washington.

It was almost exactly three years ago that Thomas was part of another prominent deadline trade, coming to Washington from the Cardinals in exchange for Jon Lester.  The move to the Nats and more consistent playing time unlocked something in Thomas, who performed brilliantly over the remainder of the 2021 season and then settled into a regular role in the Nationals’ outfield over the last three years.  This season, Thomas has hit .253/.331/.407 with eight homers and 28 steals (out of 40 attempts) over 341 plate appearances, despite missing about a month of action with a sprained MCL.

Thomas’ emergence in Washington was soon followed by more trade speculation, as it wasn’t clear whether or not the Nationals would view this newfound breakout player as a building block, or as a trade asset to aid in their rebuild.  Today’s move answers that question, as the Nats have dealt Thomas (who turns 29 next month) in the second of his three arbitration-eligible seasons.  Thomas is earning $5.45MM this season and will be in for a raise next year before hitting the free agency market in the 2025-26 offseason.

This extra year of control added to Thomas’ trade value, and ironically, the Guards themselves have traditionally looked to deal such increasingly-pricey players as they approach the end of their team control.  With Cleveland in first place in the AL Central, the Guardians have instead looked to bolster their roster in major fashion, as Thomas can step right in as the team’s new regular right fielder.  The left-handed hitting Will Brennan should still get a decent chunk of at-bats since Thomas has been much better against southpaws than against right-handed pitchers this season, but Thomas brings a needed right-handed bat to a Cleveland lineup perhaps a bit overloaded with lefty-swingers and switch-hitters.

The Guardians are opting for extra hitting over defense here, as Thomas’ public defensive metrics (-9 Defensive Runs Saved, -8.1 UZR/150, -7 Outs Above Average) have been very lacking.  Cleveland has traditionally prioritized glovework in the outfield, yet while the lineup’s production has been better in 2024 than in recent seasons, Guards hitters have provided roughly average numbers league-wide.  It seems quite possible the Guardians might still address their bigger need for rotation help before tomorrow’s deadline, but the Thomas trade is a key first step towards upgrading the roster for the stretch run.

From Washington’s perspective, the three-player package is a nice return for a season and two months’ worth of Thomas’ services.  The Nationals have added one MLB-ready player in Tena who has already gotten some time in the Show, and two longer-term assets, including a noteworthy pitching prospect in Clemmey.

Cleveland’s second-round pick in the 2023 draft, Clemmey is just 11 days removed from his 19th birthday, and he has a 4.67 ERA over 69 1/3 innings at A-level Lynchburg this season.  Clemmey has struck out batters at an impressive 32.6% rate, but his 15.8% walk rate is evidence of some control issues early in his pro career.

Baseball America ranked Clemmey seventh among Guardians prospects and MLB Pipeline had him eighth on their list, with both outlets wowed by his high-90s fastball.  The fastball earned a 70 grade from both scouting reports and his curveball received a 60, giving him some impressive upside for rotation work if he can develop at least one more quality offering.  While projections might be a bit difficult for such a young pitcher, Clemmey already looks like he could be a quality reliever, though obviously the Nationals will fully explore his potential as a starter.

Ramirez was ranked 20th in BA’s list of Guardians prospects and 22nd by MLB Pipeline.  He is the son of former Braves/Astros infielder Rafael Ramirez Sr., and while the elder Ramirez spent most of his 13 Major League seasons at shortstop, the 19-year-old Ramirez might eventually end up as a third baseman or second baseman, as per the scouting reports.  Ramirez is in his third year of pro ball and hasn’t hit much in A-ball this season after posting much bigger numbers in rookie ball in 2023.

Tena made his big league debut in the form of 18 games and 34 PA for Cleveland last season, and he has appeared in three games for the Guards in 2024.  An international signing in 2017, Tena has spent his whole career in Cleveland’s farm system, and he has an eye-popping .308/.365/.522 slash line and 22 homers in 494 career PA at the Triple-A level.

Despite these big numbers, the 23-year-old Tena always seemed to be a bit of an odd man out amidst the Guards’ infield picture, especially with Jose Ramirez and Andres Gimenez locking down two positions.  Tena’s big strikeout numbers probably didn’t play well within a Cleveland organization that prizes contact hitting, but he’ll now get another opportunity in the District.  The Nationals have an infield cornerstone of their own in CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. has done well to re-establish himself as a regular second baseman, though Tena could potentially look to make an impact at third base or in a utility role.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (X link) was the first to report that Cleveland acquired Thomas, and FanSided’s Robert Murray (via X) reported that Clemmey was part of the trade package.  ESPN’s Jeff Passan specified that the Nationals would be receiving three players in return for Thomas, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was the first to report on the inclusion of Tena and Ramirez.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Angels, Nationals Interested In Dylan Carlson

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The Cardinals are exploring trades of outfielder Dylan Carlson and right-hander Giovanny Gallegos, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The club is set to add Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham in a trade that will subtract Tommy Edman, leaving them needing to open some active roster spots. Gallegos was already removed from the roster as he was designated for assignment yesterday. Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that the Dodgers are interested in Gallegos while John Denton of MLB.com relays on X that the Guardians, Angels and Nationals are interested in Carlson, though the Guardians just acquired Lane Thomas from the Nationals, which presumably lowers their interest in Carlson.

Carlson, 25, has been getting squeezed out of playing time this year as guys like Michael Siani, Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar and Alec Burleson have been out on the grass more than he has. The crunch will be even tighter whenever Pham officially reports to the club. As mentioned, the club will have to open a couple of roster spots, so perhaps a trade of Carlson will come together between now and tomorrow’s deadline.

“Right now, he’s still one of our outfielders, but clearly we’re gonna have a roster crunch at some point,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said of Carlson today, per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat on X. “So we’ll use the next 24 hours to see what happens, but he’s still a part of our organization right now and we’ll see where that goes.”

Sending out Carlson now would definitely be a sell-low move for the Cards. Not too long ago, he was the club’s first-round pick and one of their top prospects. He also seemed to be establishing himself as a solid regular in the major leagues when he first arrived. In 2021, he got into 149 games and hit 18 home runs while drawing walks at a 9.2% rate. He also received close to league average grades for his outfield glovework and was considered to be worth 2.4 wins above replacement on the year, per the calculations of FanGraphs.

That was only his age-22 season, so it seemed fair to expect better results going forward, but the opposite has happened. In 2022, Carlson went on the injured list a couple of times, first due to a left hamstring strain and then a left thumb sprain. He got into 128 games with his production slipping a bit, finishing that year with a line of .236/.316/.380 and a 99 wRC+.

Last year, left ankle issues sent him to the IL multiple times, limiting him to just 76 games and ultimately requiring surgery. He hit .219/.318/.333 on the year for a wRC+ of 84, another dip in his production but perhaps one connected to his health.

Coming into 2024, he seemed to have a chance to engineer a rebound. Both Edman and Nootbaar were slated to start the season on the IL, which should have opened up plenty of playing time for Carlson. Unfortunately, just at the end of Spring Training, Carlson and Jordan Walker collided while trying to make a catch in the outfield. Carlson was diagnosed with a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder and also had to start the season on the IL.

He was back by early May but, as mentioned, hasn’t been able to earn much playing time this year. When in the lineup, he hasn’t done much to earn a longer leash, having hit .198/.275/.240 here in 2024.

Perhaps some clubs will be eyeing Carlson as a change-of-scenery candidate. He’s been trending downwards for three straight years now but mostly due to injuries. It’s feasible that with some health luck and regular playing time somewhere, he could return to the form he showed a few years back. He is making a modest $2.35MM salary this year and has two more years of control left. He’ll be due raises in arbitration but won’t be able to push his salary up much based on his recent results and injury absences. Carlson also has options and doesn’t necessarily need to be traded, though the Cardinals may prefer to just cash him in for something now as he may no longer be in their future plans.

The Nationals have moved on from a few veteran outfielders already this year. Eddie Rosario and Víctor Robles were released and Jesse Winker was traded to the Mets. As mentioned, Thomas was just flipped to the Guardians. Perhaps they could slot Carlson in there next to James Wood and Jacob Young.

The Angels would be in a somewhat similar position. They are giving outfield playing time to guys who could be traded like Taylor Ward and Kevin Pillar. If they pull the trigger on a deal for either of those guys, they could grab Carlson in a buy-low move and give him some run for the rest of this year or perhaps next year.

Gallegos would also be a sell-low move, but the Cards don’t have much choice there. He’s an impending free agent and they already sent him off the roster and into DFA limbo. He was one of the better relievers in the league not so long ago, tossing 228 1/3 innings over the 2019-22 seasons with a 2.84 ERA. He struck out 32% of batters faced in that time and only gave out walks at a 6.6% rate, earning 33 saves and 56 holds in the process.

But his ERA jumped to 4.42 last year as his strikeout rate fell to 25.8%. Here in 2024, his punchouts have fallen to a rate of 22.3% as his ERA has climbed to 6.53. That got him nudged off the roster but the Dodgers have a solid reputation of getting good results from pitchers and perhaps see a way to get Gallegos back on track. He is making $5.5MM this year, with roughly $1.8MM still to be paid out. The Dodgers are slated to be third-time payors of the competitive balance tax and well over the top tier, meaning they face a 110% tax rate on anything they add to their payroll at this point.

Rangers Make 11 Roster Moves

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5:33PM: Gray will miss roughly a month of action, Bochy told Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (X link) and other reporters.

3:43PM: The Rangers announced a massive slate of roster moves this afternoon. Third baseman Josh Jung and left-hander Cody Bradford were each reinstated from the 60-day injured list while the club also recalled infielder Ezequiel Durán and righty Gerson Garabito.  To open roster spots for that quartet, right-hander Jon Gray was placed on the 15-day IL with a right groin strain, and Texas optioned three others to Triple-A — catcher Andrew Knizner, and infielders Justin Foscue and Jonathan Ornelas.  To open 40-man spots for Jung and Bradford, outfielder Evan Carter was transferred to the 60-day injured list and infielder Davis Wendzel was designated for assignment. Additionally, righty Austin Pruitt (who was on the 60-day IL) has been released.

Jung and Bradford are each set for their first MLB action since April, as Jung is returning from a complicated wrist surgery and Bradford was dealing with both a back strain and then a stress fracture in his rib.  Jung broke his wrist after being hit by a pitch in his fourth game of the season, while Bradford had an impressive 1.40 ERA in his first three starts (19 1/3 IP) before he was sidelined.

Emerging as the Rangers’ regular third baseman during his impressive rookie season, Jung helped the Rangers win last year’s World Series and was expected to continue developing in his sophomore year.  The good news for Texas is that Josh Smith’s strong work as the fill-in third baseman has helped the team make do in Jung’s absence, and with Jung now back, Smith can be bounced around the diamond to left field or DH so the Rangers can keep his bat in the lineup.

Despite Bradford’s great early numbers as a starter, the Rangers have already announced that he’ll return in a bullpen role.  Bradford was pressed into rotation duty at the start of the year due to the lengthy list of Texas pitchers on the IL, but with many of those arms now back, the Rangers find themselves with a pitching surplus on paper if everyone is healthy.  To this end, the club felt comfortable enough to subtract from this depth by trading Michael Lorenzen to the Royals.

However, the injury bug bit again yesterday when Gray injured his groin while warming up for his scheduled start against the Blue Jays.  Gray departed without throwing a pitch, and the right-hander will be out for at least the next 15 days.  Bradford has only worked as a multi-inning reliever during his rehab assignment and isn’t fully stretched out to start, but the Rangers have an off-day on Thursday and Tyler Mahle is on the verge of his own return from the IL, so Mahle seems the likeliest candidate to take Gray’s spot in the rotation in a week’s time.

This is Gray’s second groin-related IL stint this season, as he missed a couple of weeks in May and June with his previous injury.  When healthy, the righty has a 3.73 ERA and an impressive 5.8% walk rate over 94 innings, though he has allowed a lot of hard contact and his 19.7% strikeout rate is the lowest of his career over a full season.

Carter hasn’t played May 26 due to a lumbar sprain in his back, so he could technically return at any time since he has already missed over 60 days.  However, manager Bruce Bochy told MLB.com and other media that Carter is set to visit a back specialist to explore some recurring soreness, and the Rangers have shut the outfielder down from the baseball activities Carter was taking part in prior to this recent development.

More will be known once Carter sees the specialist, but it’s obviously a concern that that the 21-year-old doesn’t appear to be any closer to a return.  Carter’s huge numbers after his Major League debut late last season and through the postseason provided the Rangers with a huge spark on their route to the championship, but with his bad back hampering him this year, Carter has hit only .188/.272/.361 in his first 162 PA of the 2024 campaign.

Pruitt signed a minors deal with Texas during the offseason, and that contract was selected to the active roster in April.  Pruitt appeared in only four games before a right meniscus injury sent him to the 15-day IL and then the 60-day IL.  He has spent the last month rehabbing in the minors and was at the end of the 30-day window for minor league rehab assignments, so the Rangers opted to release the righty rather than bring him back to the 26-man roster.  A veteran of seven MLB seasons, Pruitt will hit the open market again, though it might not be a surprise to see him re-sign with Texas pretty quickly on a fresh minor league deal.

Wendzel was selected 41st overall by the Rangers in the 2019 draft, and he made his big league debut this season the form of 27 games and 49 plate appearances.  He saw some work at third base during Jung’s IL stint, but Wendzel mostly came off the bench, and he hit just .128/.163/.234 in his first look at MLB pitching.

The 27-year-old has hit well at Triple-A over the last two seasons, including a 30-homer campaign for Round Rock in 2023.  Wendzel has mostly played third base and shortstop during his minor league career with a few other looks at the other two infield spots and in left field, so between this defensive versatility and his Triple-A numbers, he might be a candidate to be claimed by a team in need of infield depth.

Cubs Activate Cody Bellinger From 10-Day Injured List

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The Cubs have activated Cody Bellinger from the 10-day injured list, according to multiple reporters.  Bellinger has been on the IL since July 11 after he was hit by a Cionel Perez pitch, resulting in a fracture in his left middle finger.  Fortunately for Bellinger and the Cubs, the injury hasn’t proven to be too serious, and Bellinger has been taking part in baseball activities.

The activation comes as a bit of a surprise due to the immediacy, as manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune) earlier today that Bellinger would return in a few days’ time.  However, Bellinger apparently looked so good in his hitting progression that the club feels comfortable in activating him in time for today’s game with the Reds.  Counsell recently suggested that Bellinger could return as a DH at first, as he was feeling comfortable hitting but was still having some issues throwing (Bellinger is left-handed).

Bellinger has hit .269/.331/.410 with nine home runs over 344 plate appearances this season, and he missed a couple of weeks due to a rib fracture earlier this year in addition to his just-completed IL stint.  While Bellinger’s 108 wRC+ is above average, it is well below the 134 wRC+ he posted in 2023, and not what the Cubs were expecting when he was re-signed to a three-year, $80MM free agent deal last winter.

Since Bellinger can opt out of that contract after the season, he’ll have two more months to post some bigger numbers and build a better platform for another foray into the free agent market.  If Bellinger decides to just stay with Chicago, he can also opt out following the 2025 campaign, giving him some extra flexibility down the road as he considers his long-term future.  Between this contractual uncertainty, his recent injury absence, and his just-okay numbers, Bellinger is probably unlikely to be dealt by a Chicago team that has been doing more adding than subtracting in advance of tomorrow’s trade deadline.

Reynaldo López Day-To-Day With Forearm Tightness

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TODAY: López’s MRI revealed no structural damage, manager Brian Snitker told Toscano and other reporters (X link).  It appears as though this is something close to a best-case scenario for López and the Braves, as Snitker said López might not miss any time due to the injury.

JULY 28: Braves right-hander Reynaldo López was removed from today’s start after just three innings and the club announced that the move was due to right forearm tightness. He’s headed to Atlanta for an MRI, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on X. Though Atlanta characterized it as precautionary and described the righty as day-to-day, it could be a notable development given the surrounding circumstances of the club.

López mostly worked as a reliever from 2021 to 2023, but Atlanta moved him back to a starting role this year, an experiment that has gone incredibly well so far. The righty came into today with an earned run average of 2.12 in 101 2/3 innings. There’s certainly a bit of luck in there, as stranding 85.6% of baserunners isn’t sustainable in the long term, but his 8.7% walk rate is close to average and his 24.2% strikeout rate is quite strong. His 3.17 FIP and 4.00 SIERA point to solid results even with a bit less luck in terms of stranding runners.

Losing that kind of performance for even a short amount of time would be less than ideal for Atlanta. The club has been sliding in the standings lately and is well back of the Phillies in the National League East. In the Wild Card picture, there are nine teams battling for three spots, within eight games of each other. Atlanta is atop that heap, but only barely.

Their rotation challenges began early on and have mounted as the season has progressed. Spencer Strider required UCL surgery in April and is out for the year. Max Fried, Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep are also on the IL due to arm issues.

Fried and Waldrep could each be coming off the IL in the coming weeks, but it would be less than ideal for López to miss any time. If he were out of the picture, the rotation core would be down to Chris Sale and Charlie Morton, at least until one of the injured guys is able to return. Sale is having a great year but is hardly a sure thing, as he is 35 years old and missed most of the previous four seasons due to injury. Morton has a passable 4.16 ERA but is 40 years old and his strikeout rate has declined for a fourth straight season. Spencer Schwellenbach has been good but has just ten MLB starts to his name so far. Reliever Grant Holmes is listed as tomorrow’s starter.

All told, the Atlanta rotation has a lot of question marks in it right now, which could perhaps impact Atlanta’s behavior in the coming days. The trade deadline is 5pm Central on Tuesday, giving the club a bit of time to figure out how aggressively to pursue starting pitching upgrades. The market could features impact names like Garrett Crochet, Jack Flaherty and Tarik Skubal, as well as guys like Erick Fedde, Yusei Kikuchi, Cal Quantrill and many more.

The club also might be looking for help at second base and the outfield due to the injuries to Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Michael Harris II, but the competitive balance tax might impact their approach. RosterResource pegs their CBT number at $273MM, just below the third threshold of $277MM. Going over that line would not only lead to a higher rate of taxation but would also see their top pick in the 2025 draft pushed back ten spots.

On top of this season, there’s the worry of a long-term absence. At this point, there’s been nothing to suggest the worst-case scenario is on the table for López, but an injury to a pitcher’s throwing elbow/forearm will always lead to some degree of worry.

At this point in the year, a significant surgery could put the 2025 season in jeopardy for López. Atlanta is set to lose both Fried and Morton to free agency, with the latter also a candidate to retire. López is in the first season of a three-year deal and would certainly be part of the 2025 rotation mix as long as he’s healthy. If not, it would mostly consist of a 36-year-old Sale, followed by fairly unproven guys like Schwellenbach, Waldrep and others.

Brewers To Place Trevor Megill On 15-Day Injured List

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The Brewers will be placing right-hander Trevor Megill on the 15-day injured list due to a back problem, according to multiple members of the team’s beat (including Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).

Acquired in a trade with the Twins in April 2023, Megill is the latest in a string of relievers to hit a new level of performance after coming to Milwaukee.  Megill had a 6.03 ERA over his first 68 2/3 career big league innings with the Cubs and Twins in 2021-22, but with some intriguing secondary metrics that hinted at a higher ceiling, and he delivered on that potential with a 3.63 ERA over 34 2/3 frames with Milwaukee last season.

Megill has been even better in 2024, with a 2.41 ERA and excellent walk (5.9%) and strikeout (29.4%) rates over 33 2/3 innings in the Crew’s bullpen.  While he has allowed a lot of hard contact and has become rather an extreme fly ball pitcher this season, Megill’s 98.8mph fastball has been one of baseball’s more dominant offerings, pairing nicely with his curve to fool batters.

This performance has come in several high-leverage circumstances, as Megill has acted as Milwaukee’s closer (saving 20 of 23 chances) while Devin Williams has missed almost the entire season due to stress fractures in his back.  Williams only made his season debut yesterday, so the Brewers are facing some unfortunate irony in losing Megill to a back problem just as Williams returns.  Bryan Hudson was also just placed on the 15-day IL due to an oblique strain, in another big hit to the relief corps.  Nick Mears was acquired in a trade with the Rockies on Saturday, but with Hudson and now Megill both out, the Brewers could certainly look to further bolster the bullpen prior to tomorrow’s trade deadline.

Mariners Acquire Justin Turner

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The Mariners have acquired Justin Turner and cash considerations from the Blue Jays, per announcements from both clubs, with outfield prospect RJ Schreck going to the Blue Jays in return. Turner was playing for the Jays at the time the trade was reported but was removed from the game.

Turner has remarkably continued to be an above-average hitter as he approaches his 40th birthday, which is in November, though he has unsurprisingly tailed off a bit from his peak. With the Dodgers from 2014 to 2022, Turner hit .296/.375/.490 for a wRC+ of 137. He signed with the Red Sox last year and slashed .276/.345/.455 for a 114 wRC+, a noticeable drop-off from his work in Los Angeles but still 14% above average.

He signed with the Jays coming into 2024, a one-year deal with a $13MM guarantee plus bonuses based on plate appearances. His offense has taken another small dip but is still decent. He is drawing walks at an 11.2% clip this year while limiting his strikeouts to a 17.2% rate. His .253/.348/.370 batting line translates to a 109 wRC+.

The Mariners are 56-51 and battling the Astros and Rangers in the American League West. Their pitching has been great this year but the offense has been a disappointment. Collectively, they are hitting .218/.300/.368 for a wRC+ of 95, which places them in the bottom third of the league. Their 27.7% strikeout rate is easily the worst in the majors. On top of those season-long struggles, they recently lost Julio Rodríguez and J.P. Crawford to the injured list.

The club has been actively trying to reconfigure the offense in recent days, acquiring Randy Arozarena from the Rays and now Turner from the Jays. Given the club’s punch-out problem, it’s perhaps not a coincidence that Turner has always been tough to strike out. He has a 15.4% strikeout rate in his career and has never been higher than 17.6% in a full season. For context, the major league average is 22.3% this year.

Turner has played all around the infield in his career but the expectations of his glovework have naturally diminished as he has pushed further into his late 30s. He has dabbled at second base in recent seasons but the Jays haven’t put him there this year. He’s still made some appearances at third base this season but only five starts, with his last regular playing time there coming in 2022. He only has 11 starts at first base this year but that might just be because Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is there most days, as Turner got into 41 games there for the Sox last season. Divish relays on X that Seattle manager Scott Servais said Turner will likely play first in Seattle more than he did in Toronto.

The Mariners recently traded Ty France to the Reds, opening up their first base spot. They’ve been using Tyler Locklear and Jason Vosler there in recent days, but now Turner could jump into that mix. The club had initially planned for Mitch Garver to be something close to an everyday DH this year but his underwhelming season has nudged him into more of a traditional backup catcher role. That means there could also be DH at-bats to be shared between Turner, Vosler and Locklear.

The Jays have been in sell mode for a while, having already flipped Yimi García, Nate Pearson and Danny Jansen in recent days. Now they have flipped Turner for Schreck, a 24-year-old who the M’s selected in the ninth-round of last year’s draft. He started this year in High-A and performed very well at the plate. In his 344 plate appearances, he drew walks at a 16.6% rate while only striking out 13.7% of the time. He also hit 12 home runs, leading to a slash of .261/.401/.464 and a 148 wRC+. On top of that, he added seven steals while playing all three outfield slots.

He then got bumped to Double-A and has a brutal slash of .143/.294/.250 there, but in a tiny sample of eight games with a .190 batting average on balls in play that is surely not sustainable. The Jays will perhaps bring him over to their own Double-A club in the coming days and hope for better help from the baseball gods.

Beyond the prospect, the Jays are likely happy to unload some of of Turner’s contract. There’s about $4.3MM left to be paid out and some part of that amount will be subtracted from the competitive balance tax calculation. The Jays are reportedly paying down $2MM in the deal.

With the trades of Turner, Jansen, García and Pearson, the Jays have made significant progress towards ducking under the tax line this year. RosterResource estimates that they are currently just under $242MM, putting them less than $5MM away from the $237MM base threshold, though the cash going to Seattle in the Turner trade should alter that calculus.

Between now and tomorrow’s deadline, they could still move rentals Yusei Kikuchi, Kevin Kiermaier and Trevor Richards. They could also consider deals for guys like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Chad Green or Chris Bassitt, who are each making notable salaries through 2025. If they manage to reset their CBT status this year, it would mean they could pay the tax in 2025 as a “first-time” payor instead of a “third-time” payor while also having lower penalties for signing free agents that rejected qualifying offers. MLBTR explored Toronto’s CBT situation a couple of weeks ago.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported on X that Turner was going to the Mariners. Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times first relayed that a prospect was involved that it was Schreck (X link one and two). Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reported the cash considerations.

Yankees Discussing Jack Flaherty Trade, Planning To Deal Nestor Cortes If Completed

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The Yankees are in “extensive trade talks” for Tigers righty Jack Flaherty, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.  The Yankees plan to trade starter Nestor Cortes if they land Flaherty, adds Nightengale.  Earlier today, we learned that Flaherty has been scratched from tonight’s start against the Guardians, with a trade expected soon.

Flaherty, who will be a free agent after the season, has experienced a resurgence this season and is sporting a career-best 27.5 K-BB% through 18 starts.  The Tigers are 5.5 games out in the wild card and are a long shot to reach the playoffs, so Flaherty seems very likely to be dealt before tomorrow’s 5pm central time trade deadline.

The Yankees, meanwhile, are one game back of the Orioles in the AL East and currently hold a wild card spot.  The Yanks have limped to an 8-13 record in July, though they won their last two at Boston.  Senior vice president and GM Brian Cashman added Jazz Chisholm Jr. via trade yesterday, and is known to be seeking reinforcements for the pitching staff.

The New York Post’s Joel Sherman connected the Yankees to Flaherty on Saturday, and Sherman’s colleague Jon Heyman reported Cortes’ availability earlier today.  Flaherty would form a dynamic 1-2 punch with ace Gerrit Cole.  Even sans Cortes, the club could be adequately covered for the rest of the regular season with Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, and Luis Gil, with Clarke Schmidt on the mend from a lat strain.  It’s also worth noting that Gil will surpass his professional career-high in innings (108 2/3) if he records five or more outs tonight in Philadelphia, so the Yankees may need to back off to keep him fresh for October.

Cortes, who leads the Yankees with 124 1/3 innings this year, owns a 4.13 ERA at present.  With a 17.4 K-BB%, he’s an entirely capable big league pitcher, though he lacks the strikeout stuff Flaherty has shown this year.  Cortes is under team control through 2025 as an arbitration eligible player, and will earn a raise on this year’s $3.95MM salary.

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Yankees’ competitive balance tax payroll currently sits around $315MM.  The club pays a 110% tax on anything above $297MM.  A Cortes-Flaherty contract swap-out would increase the team’s CBT hit by around $3.3MM for the remainder of the season, which would carry a tax of about $3.6MM.  But given that the Yankees are considering all sorts of different scenarios, we won’t know where the dust settles until about 24 hours from now.

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