Archives for July 2024

Latest On Twins’ Trade Endeavors

By Mark Polishuk | July 30, 2024 at 12:24am CDT

The Twins are known to be working with little to no financial flexibility as the deadline approaches, as ownership’s big-picture revenue concerns continue to limit how much new money the front office can add. RosterResource projects Minnesota’s payroll at roughly $127.8MM, as offseason cuts have already significant reduced spending from the team’s $158.8MM payroll from 2023.

Exchanging salaries might be the Twins’ most logical way of adding some help to their roster, and with this in mind, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes writes that “the Twins have listened to offers” from other teams about such controllable players as closer Jhoan Duran, and more obvious trade candidates like pending free agents Max Kepler or Manuel Margot.

Of course, listening to offers is a long way off from actively shopping players or having any particular inclination to move them, as Hayes notes that “the cost for Kepler and Duran is said to be extremely high.” It can be assumed that Margot’s price tag is significantly lower, which isn’t surprising for a backup outfielder hitting .243/.302/.341 over 235 plate appearances this season. Margot has roughly $1.3MM still owed on the Twins’ $4MM share of his overall $10MM salary for 2024, as the Dodgers are covering the other $6MM as per the terms of the February trade that brought Margot to the Twin Cities.

Kepler’s name has popped up in trade talks several times over the years, and he has about $3.33MM left on his $10MM salary for the 2024 season. Kepler is a trickier player for Minnesota to replace since he is the primary right fielder and a solid defender, though he hasn’t traditionally had much success against left-handed pitching. Even against righties, Kepler is hitting a modest .258/.317/.403 in 244 PA this season, so he doesn’t exactly offer a big splits advantage.

With this in mind, it seems perhaps a little odd that the Twins want an “extremely high” return for rental player like Kepler. However, the Twins likely aren’t keen to substantially diminish their outfield depth given how many injuries the team has already fought through this year, and moving Kepler would then present Minnesota with another challenge in finding a replacement.

Duran is a different story altogether as a trade candidate. For a team with a limited payroll, Duran is a particularly huge asset since he doesn’t reach arbitration eligibility until this winter, and he is under team control through the 2027 season. Trading the closer therefore wouldn’t provide any help to Minnesota’s financial concerns, unless perhaps the Twins attached a larger contract along with Duran as part of a trade package. That tactic, however, would lessen the value of one of the Twins’ top trade chips, in terms of what the team would receive in terms of an on-field return.

In another report earlier tonight, Hayes wrote that the Twins had some talks with the Dodgers about Duran, but wanted players who could help this season, rather than the Dodgers’ preferred offer of prospects. Trading a closer might be simpler for a team just looking to cut payroll, yet the Twins are trying to thread the needle by both limiting spending and remaining competitive, as the team is in possession of an AL wild card spot and they’re 5.5 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead.

Latest On Giants’ Deadline Plans

By Mark Polishuk | July 29, 2024 at 11:57pm CDT

The Giants surprised many with tonight’s stunning trade that sent Jorge Soler and Luke Jackson to the Braves, yet the move doesn’t appear to be signalling a larger trend towards a selloff in the Bay Area. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (via X) writes that “it doesn’t sound as if the Giants have plans to make any more significant subtractions, especially from the rotation.” That latter specification implies that Blake Snell probably isn’t going to be on the move, despite increased speculation in the last few days that teams have been inquiring about the left-hander’s availability.

Whether the Giants make any noteworthy additions also still seems to be in question, as Slusser feels the team could bring in a new outfielder “if they add.” The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly writes that the Giants are looking for a good defender to play center field, and Heliot Ramos would then be moved into a corner outfield slot. Star prospect Marco Luciano will be recalled for another crack at the big leagues, and Luciano will factor into the DH picture with Michael Conforto and (when healthy) Wilmer Flores now that Soler is gone.

Naturally plans could still change as things develop leading up to the deadline, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently suggested that the Giants feel they could move Conforto to a team that would take on the rest of the roughly $6MM remaining of his $18MM salary. It could be that the Soler trade already provides enough financial relief that the Giants wouldn’t feel compelled to move Conforto as well, though if payroll isn’t a primary concern, the Giants could be freeing up some money to be flexible enough for a larger splash if an pricier option becomes available.

This type of measured approach to the trade deadline isn’t likely to please the San Francisco fanbase, yet it speaks to the team’s uncertain position in the standings. The Giants are 53-55 with a -16 run differential, but a four-game winning streak has brought them within four games of an NL wild card berth. With a number of lesser opponents (i.e. the A’s, White Sox, Marlins) all coming up on the schedule in the next five weeks, the ingredients might be there for the Giants to make a run…..or the front office could see the hill as too tall to climb.

In regards to Snell in particular, Baggarly says San Francisco would “have to be overwhelmed” to trade the southpaw, and the team is “not expecting something to materialize” between now and 5pm CT on Tuesday. For comparison’s sake, Baggarly said the Giants would want more for Snell than the Blue Jays got from the Astros in the Yusei Kikuchi trade earlier tonight.

The New York Post’s Jon Heyman also reported that the Giants weren’t willing to include any money in a Snell trade to cover the significant remaining cost of his contract. The two-year, $62MM deal Snell signed last offseason breaks down as a $17MM signing bonus that has already been paid, a $15MM salary for 2024 (so roughly $5MM remains owed), and then $30MM in 2025. While Snell can opt out of that second year and return to free agency, rival teams are understandably wary about taking on that possible hefty cost, considering that Snell has a checkered injury history.

An opt-out didn’t appear to on the cards whatsoever for Snell just a few weeks ago, yet he has revived his trade value with some exceptional pitching since his return from the injured list. Snell has an 0.75 ERA and a 35.7% strikeout rate over 24 innings in his last four starts, suddenly once again looking like the dominant ace who won the NL Cy Young Award last year.

The Cubs, Orioles, Padres, and Yankees are all known to have expressed some level of interest about Snell, and SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Mets have also “checked in” with the Giants, with “no traction” yet on any possible deal. Martino implies that this might have been something of a due diligence call from the Mets, as naturally any contender would want to at least touch base with San Francisco about what it would take to pry Snell away.

NL West Notes: Walker, Duran, Dodgers, Padres, Kikuchi

By Mark Polishuk | July 29, 2024 at 10:49pm CDT

Christian Walker left tonight’s game with what the Diamondbacks described as left oblique tightness. It isn’t clear when the injury occurred, though Walker struck out swinging during a second-inning at-bat, and Kevin Newman then took over Walker’s spot at first base in the top of the fourth. More will be known about the severity of the injury once Walker undergoes tests, but any sort of oblique issue might hint at a trip to the injured list for the star first baseman.

Losing Walker for any stretch of time would deal a heavy blow to Arizona’s playoff hopes, given his all-around importance to the lineup. Walker is hitting .254/.338/.476 with 23 home runs over 461 plate appearances, and delivering his usual excellent glovework at first base. Beyond what an IL stay might do to the Diamondbacks’ chances in the pennant race, an extended absence also wouldn’t help Walker’s platform for a big free agent contract, as he is scheduled to hit the open market at season’s end. This sudden uncertainty over Walker’s status is an unwelcome wrinkle for the D’Backs in advance of tomorrow’s trade deadline, as the team was planning to focus on pitching rather than any significant position-player adds.

Phillies Still Exploring Bullpen Market

By Anthony Franco | July 29, 2024 at 10:29pm CDT

The Phillies landed arguably the best reliever on the market when they sent two highly-regarded pitching prospects to the Angels for closer Carlos Estévez. That hasn’t stopped the front office from continuing to search for bullpen help. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote Monday afternoon that the Phils remain engaged in the relief market.

Philadelphia’s relief group has been around average overall, but their 6.08 ERA this month is better only than the Red Sox’s 6.38 mark. Estévez should solidify the ninth inning, but the Phils could try to get another setup option to pair with Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering. The Phils subtracted some of their middle relief depth with the trade sending Seranthony Domínguez to Baltimore for Austin Hays. Philadelphia has José Ruiz and Yunior Marte in low-leverage roles at the moment.

The Phils have arguably the strongest all-around roster in MLB. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and his staff are among the league’s most aggressive front offices. They continued that trend in the Estévez trade. They don’t have many obvious holes beyond the bullpen. Center field is arguably a weak point, but it’d be a thin market if the White Sox do indeed hold Luis Robert Jr.

Tanner Scott is the top reliever who is almost certain to move by tomorrow evening. The Phils probably aren’t going to land both of the best rental closers on the market. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel very loosely tied the Phillies to A’s flamethrowing setup man Lucas Erceg this morning. Estévez’s old teammate (and former Phillie) Luis García should move, as could John Brebbia and Austin Adams.

Astros To Select Pedro Leon’s Contract

By Mark Polishuk | July 29, 2024 at 10:14pm CDT

In the aftermath of tonight’s trade that brought Yusei Kikuchi to Houston in exchange for a three-player trade package, the Astros will fill one of their roster spots with outfield prospect Pedro Leon. MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (X link) reports that the Astros will select Leon’s contract to the 40-man roster, giving the 26-year-old his first taste of big league baseball.

Baseball America ranked Leon as the top prospect available when he officially signed his $4MM deal with the Astros in 2021, though at age 22, he was significantly older than most members of the 2020-21 international signing class. He had already played two seasons in Cuba’s National Series before defecting, and he didn’t play at all in 2019 or 2020 due to paperwork delays, the pandemic, and the fact that the Astros didn’t have the bonus pool space to sign him until the 2020-21 window opened.

Leon reached Triple-A Sugar Land before the end of the 2021 season, but he has remained at the top affiliate ever since, hitting .249/.357/.445 with 57 home runs in 1567 total Triple-A appearances. That slash line includes a marked step up in production this season, as Leon has hit .297/.377/.519 with 19 homers over 424 PA in 2024.

Plenty of caveats abound with these numbers. Leon is now 26 and playing against generally much younger competition, and batting totals tend to be inflated in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. In addition, his .374 BABIP suggests a lot of batted-ball fortune, and his 8.7% is the lowest of his three full Triple-A seasons. Leon has slightly reduced his strikeout rate from past years, but only to 26.2%.

MLB Pipeline ranks Leon 24th among all Astros prospects, with Baseball America putting him 29th in their evaluation of Houston’s farm system. The strikeouts are naturally a big concern in regards to how Leon might fare against Major League pitching, even if Leon does show good power than he does make contact. He has plus speed (86 steals in 121 attempts at Sugar Land) and a very strong throwing arm but is considered an average fielder at best, likely suited for corner outfield work.

Kyle Tucker’s continued stint on the injured list has left a big hole in Houston’s outfield, though it might be hard for Leon to find consistent playing time with Trey Cabbage, Chas McCormick, and utilityman Mauricio Dubon ahead of him on the depth chart. Leon is a right-handed hitter, adding to an Astros roster that already tilts toward the right side.

Angels Notes: Rengifo, Ward, Pillar, Garcia, Trout

By Mark Polishuk | July 29, 2024 at 9:48pm CDT

Reports earlier this month indicated that the Angels were planning to move only their impending free agents at the deadline, and were looking to retain players controlled through the 2025 season or beyond. The Halos have stuck to this plan to date by moving only Carlos Estevez to the Phillies, but it seems like the club is preparing to deal some longer-term assets, as rival executives tell MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand that both Luis Rengifo and Taylor Ward are expected to be dealt. “The Angels are listening to offers on” the duo, Feinsand writes.

The Red Sox and Dodgers are both reportedly in on Rengifo, the Pirates have had talks about Ward, and the Royals have previously been linked to both players in trade speculation. With some interest percolating around the league, it stood to reason that the Angels might back down from whatever rentals-only stance they might’ve held earlier in the summer, if such a stance was even anything more than a negotiating tactic.

It is hard at this point to see the Angels returning to contention as early as next season, and therefore there seems to be little reason why the team wouldn’t be open to moving two of their better trade assets. Rengifo is under arbitration control through the 2025 season and Ward won’t be a free agent until after the 2026 season, so this extra control would only add to their trade value, rather than perhaps act as a reason why Los Angeles should try to keep them with so many other glaring needs on the roster.

In terms of the Halos’ rental players, the New York Post’s Jon Heyman writes (X link) that Kevin Pillar is getting “lots of interest” from rival teams. Playing in a part-time capacity since signing with the Halos in April, Pillar is hitting .287/.343/.481 over 199 plate appearances — this works out to a 130 wRC+, miles above the 86 wRC+ Pillar posted in his 11 previous Major League seasons.

It counts as going out on a high note for a player who is planning to retire at season’s end, and joining a contender would be a nice way to perhaps add a championship ring to Pillar’s resume. Even if some regression is probably inevitable given how Pillar is hitting so far above his career norms, the veteran can still provide outfield depth along with whatever he can do at the plate.

The Orioles are known to be looking for right-handed hitting outfielders, and Heyman writes in a separate X post that Pillar is one of the names on Baltimore’s list of possible targets. The Orioles added Cristian Pache as part of the Austin Hays trade with the Phillies, but the 2024 version of Pillar would bring a lot more pop than a defensive specialist like Pache.

The Estevez trade got the ball rolling on the Angels’ moves and also created a hole at the back of the bullpen. Manager Ron Washington told The Athletic’s Sam Blum (X link) and other reporters that Luis Garcia will close games unless Garcia is himself traded, and Ben Joyce would then be next in line for save situations. Garcia is another pending free agent and there is plenty of interest in his services, so since he’ll likely be in another uniform within a day’s time, thus opening the door for Joyce. A classic flame-throwing reliever, Joyce has garnered “closer of the future” buzz ever since he made his MLB debut last season, and he has a 2.11 ERA over 21 1/3 innings this year, albeit with a lot of subpar advanced metrics.

In non-trade news about the Angels’ biggest star, Washington told the Associated Press and other reporters that Mike Trout hadn’t yet restarted his running program after a setback with his surgically-repaired knee halted Trout’s minor league rehab assignment. Trout played two Triple-A innings last Tuesday before leaving the game, and an MRI taken on Friday was clean, with Trout telling MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger and other media that the knee issue was related to some breaking scar tissue.

“It’s a huge relief for me. I just have to make sure it feels good and I’ll be back out there. Scar tissue breaking up is a weird feeling and I’d never experienced that,” Trout said.

Trout was hitting .220/.325/.541 with 10 homers over 126 PA when his knee problems arose at the end of April, and the three-time MVP hasn’t played since, apart from his brief Triple-A appearance last Tuesday. While neither Trout or Washington held much concern over this latest setback, there won’t be much comfort until Trout is back onto the field, given how multiple injuries have plagued the outfielder over the last few years.

Yankees, Pirates, Astros In The Mix For Yandy Diaz

By Steve Adams | July 29, 2024 at 9:38pm CDT

9:38pm: In addition to the Yankees, both the Pirates and Astros are engaged with the Rays on Diaz, reports Cuban journalist Francys Romero.

Both teams make some sense for Diaz, though the Astros’ fit is clearer and more straightforward. Houston released Jose Abreu earlier this summer and has received a middling .232/.316/.354 output from Jon Singleton in his stead. The ’Stros already depleted the top end of a thin farm to acquire Yusei Kikuchi earlier tonight, however, making it tougher for them to win any kind of bidding war for a player of note.

The Pirates’ need at first base has quieted as they’ve enjoyed a resurgence from Rowdy Tellez since the calendar flipped to June. The lefty slugger touts a .331/.370/.595 line over his past 135 plate appearances. That said, Tellez has notable platoon splits in his career, and Diaz could also log time at both third base and designated hitter — particularly if the Bucs are comfortable playing Andrew McCutchen in the outfield more frequently. (Notably, outfielders Joshua Palacios and Ji Hwan Bae both exited tonight’s game with injuries.) More than anything, Pittsburgh simply needs more offense, so acquiring a quality hitter like Diaz and sorting out the playing time later has its own merits, even if the positional fit is less clean with Tellez’s recent hot streak and a franchise icon (McCutchen) serving as a near-everyday designated hitter.

8:35pm: The Yankees have been active in just about every facet of the trade market over the past week. They’ve landed Jazz Chisholm Jr. from the Marlins, looked into big-name starters like Giants lefty Blake Snell and Tigers righty Jack Flaherty, and simultaneously been gauging interest in lefty Nestor Cortes. Among the team’s other targets is Rays infielder Yandy Diaz, per The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty. The Yankees were also involved in the bidding for Isaac Paredes before he was traded to the Cubs, Kuty adds.

Adding some infield help makes good sense for the Yankees, who have Anthony Rizzo on the injured list while veterans Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu have struggled throughout the season. Utilityman Jon Berti, acquired just prior to Opening Day, is on the injured list. Versatile Oswaldo Cabrera has faded after a hot start. Rookie Ben Rice has shown some power but entered play Monday hitting .196 with a .291 OBP (he’s since homered and bumped up those rate stats a bit). A brief look at veteran J.D. Davis didn’t work out.

Bringing Diaz aboard would give the Yankees an affordable veteran who can handle both infield corners, though he’s primarily played first base in recent seasons. The 32-year-old Diaz got out to a dreadful start in 2024 but turned things around emphatically after a slow first month. His season-long .270/.326/.397 line is more solid than it is eye-catching, but setting aside an uncharacteristic slump to begin the season, Diaz has turned in a robust .296/.348/.452 slash over a sample of just under 300 plate appearances. His superlative bat-to-ball skills have been on full display, as Diaz has fanned in a mere 13.7% of his plate appearances during that stretch and walked at a 7.5% clip. That walk rate is slightly below average, but Diaz has an 11.5% career mark in that regard.

Diaz’s approach is a particularly good fit with Yankee Stadium. Although he’s a right-handed hitter, he hits the ball to the opposite field at a hearty 30.3% rate — more than all but 16 hitters in baseball (min. 300 plate appearances). Diaz is batting .333 and slugging .505 when he goes the other way with the ball — numbers that would presumably tick up when playing half his games with that ever-alluring short right-field porch in the Bronx.

Diaz is in the second season of a three-year, $24MM contract. He’s earning $8MM on the year and is owed $10MM in 2025. There’s a $12MM club option for the 2026 campaign on the contract as well, which does not have a buyout. That backloaded contract is relatively steep for the Rays but far more palatable for the Yankees, even with their luxury-tax status. The Yankees are a third-time offender in the top tier of penalization, meaning they’d pay a 110% tax on the AAV of any contracts they add to the books. That creates some short-term pain, perhaps, but Diaz’s deal is more affordable than many free-agent options would be and the fact that he’s locked up through ’26 makes him an appealing multi-year option.

White Sox “Unlikely” To Move Luis Robert Jr. By Trade Deadline

By Mark Polishuk | July 29, 2024 at 8:36pm CDT

While the White Sox have been one of the primary sellers in the deadline market, one of their top trade candidates doesn’t appear to be going anywhere, as reporter Francys Romero (X link) hears from sources that Luis Robert Jr. is “unlikely” to be on the move at this point. MLB.com’s Scott Merkin concurs, and so while an unexpectedly big trade offer might change things before tomorrow’s 5pm CT deadline, odds are Robert will still be in a White Sox uniform on July 31.

Robert missed about two months this season due to a hip flexor strain, and is hitting .201/.242/.440 with 12 homers and 13 steals over 220 plate appearances entering today’s action. With just a 99 wRC+ to show for his production, Robert isn’t exactly putting on a show for potential suitors, so it isn’t surprising that the White Sox might want to hold off until the offseason to reignite any trade talks. If Robert returns to his 2023 form over the season’s final two months, it will do a lot to re-establish his trade value and to help Chicago’s chances at finding a suitable return.

Signed to a six-year, $50MM contract before his MLB career even began, Robert is still something of an unproven quantity as he approaches his 27th birthday, as injuries have limited his full potential. Playing in 145 games last season, Robert hit .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers and finished 12th in AL MVP voting, which provided evidence that Robert can be an elite player when healthy. A more serious hip flexor issue in 2021 and then a variety of injuries in 2022 limited him to 166 games over those two seasons, though he still managed a .307/.344/.486 slash line and 25 home runs in 697 PA, basically delivering the equivalent of one impressive full season.

Beyond Robert’s production on the field, his contractual control adds to his value as a trade chip. He is owed $15MM in 2025, and the White Sox then hold $20MM club options on his services for both 2026 and 2027. This is quite a reasonable price for a player with a superstar ceiling, and thus the Sox could add for a huge trade package to further aid their rebuilding efforts.

Given the potential length of Robert’s deal, the White Sox could even still view him as a contributor to their next winning team, if they feel they’re starting to make headway on a revived roster. Of course, that would require a lot of progress in pretty short order from a 27-81 team that is threatening to deliver one of baseball’s worst-ever seasons, so it might seem like a long shot if the Sox are able to get on track before Robert’s time with the club is over.

Nationals To Select Travis Blankenhorn

By Anthony Franco | July 29, 2024 at 8:20pm CDT

The Nationals are calling up Travis Blankenhorn, reports Andrew Golden of the Washington Post (X link). They’ll need to select his contract but have a pair of openings on the 40-man roster after the Jesse Winker and Lane Thomas trades.

Blankenhorn, 28 next week, appeared in 10 games for the Nats last season. It was his fourth straight year reaching the majors, albeit without ever topping last season’s 37 plate appearances. Washington ran him through outright waivers at year’s end. The former third-round pick returned to the organization on a minor league deal in January.

The lefty-swinging Blankenhorn has spent the entire season with Triple-A Rochester. He’s hitting at a slightly above-average level, running a .246/.328/.518 line with 24 homers across 401 plate appearances. Blankenhorn also popped 23 homers in 108 Triple-A contests a year ago, so he clearly has decent power potential.

That has generally come with a fair amount of strikeouts and a fringy defensive profile. Blankenhorn has split his time between the corner outfield spots, first base and designated hitter. Considering the Nats just subtracted two of their corner outfielders, he could get his most extended look at MLB pitching over the season’s final couple months.

Pirates Acquire Jalen Beeks From Rockies

By Anthony Franco | July 29, 2024 at 8:16pm CDT

The Pirates announced the acquisition of lefty reliever Jalen Beeks from the Rockies for minor league reliever Luis Peralta. Pittsburgh had an open spot on their 40-man roster after this afternoon’s trade with the Red Sox.

Colorado claimed Beeks off waivers from the Rays over the winter. Tampa Bay was evidently not planning to tender him a contract for his final season of arbitration. Rather than allow him to hit the market, Colorado took a flier and agreed to a modest $1.675MM salary. Beeks has had a generally productive season. He’s second on the Rox with 49 1/3 innings out of the bullpen and has pitched in their highest-leverage spots overall.

Beeks has worked to a 4.74 ERA in 45 appearances. He’s carrying a career-low 18% strikeout rate and 9.2% swinging strike percentage. Beeks has a league average 8.5% walk percentage and 44.7% grounder rate. He somewhat bizarrely had far more success at Coors Field than he did on the road for the Rox.

A former 12th round pick of the Red Sox, Beeks had a solid run as a long reliever for Tampa Bay between 2019-22. He combined for a 3.70 ERA with average strikeout and walk numbers in 184 2/3 frames over that stretch. Beeks allowed nearly six earned runs per nine last season, though, leading the Rays to move on.

Pittsburgh plugs him behind Aroldis Chapman as the second lefty in Derek Shelton’s bullpen. They’re assuming roughly $500K in salary for the stretch run. Beeks will surpass the six-year service threshold in September and hit free agency at the beginning of the offseason. Colorado didn’t have much incentive to keep him, so they’ll cash him in for an intriguing bullpen prospect.

Peralta, 23, is the younger brother of Brewers staff ace Freddy Peralta. The 5’11” southpaw signed with Pittsburgh out of the Dominican Republic in 2017. Peralta has divided his season between High-A and Double-A, turning in a 0.91 ERA over 39 2/3 innings. He’s striking out an eye-opening 41% of batters faced against an elevated 11.5% walk rate. Baseball America had Peralta as the #24 prospect in the Pittsburgh system, writing that he relies heavily on a mid-90s fastball with good life at the top of the strike zone. He’d be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter if Colorado doesn’t select him onto the 40-man roster.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand first reported the terms of the deal. Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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