It’s been a quiet winter for Jurickson Profar thus far, but with fellow outfielders Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez and Tyler O’Neill all off the board now, Profar stands as the top corner outfield bat on the market. The Blue Jays, who just signed Santander for five years, and the Astros are among the teams with interest in the switch-hitting Profar, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported on the MLB Network this morning (video link). The incumbent Padres have also been tied to Profar this winter and very clearly love him as a player and person, but it’s far from clear the front office will have that kind of spending power. The Friars have reportedly been working to scale back payroll this winter, and that was before recent ownership tumult.
Profar, 32 next month, is fresh off a career year where he improved in just about every measurable category. His .280 average, .380 on-base percentage and .459 slugging percentage all ranked as career-best marks. The former top prospect made massive gains in exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate, all while posting his best walk rate (11.4%) since 2021 and his lowest strikeout rate (15.1%) since 2020. Profar has long had a plus eye and excellent bat-to-ball skills, but the contact he made was often lacking punch. That wasn’t at all the case in 2024, as he swatted a career-high 24 homers and tacked on 29 doubles in 158 games/668 plate appearances.
The fit with Toronto isn’t as clean with Santander now in the fold on a $92.5MM contract, but there’s still room to move things around. Playing Santander regularly in right field — or having Santander and George Springer split time between right field and designated hitter — would open up left field for Profar (who could see occasional DH time himself). That’d likely come at the expense of playing time for Nathan Lukes and Will Wagner, but Profar would be a pronounced upgrade over both if he can replicate or even approximate last year’s breakout showing.
Payroll-wise, the Jays’ signing of Santander pushed them up into the second tier of luxury penalization. They very narrowly dipped under the tax line in 2024, resetting their penalty level in the process, meaning they’d be on the hook for a 32% for any dollars allocated to Profar (or another free agent). They’re currently projected by RosterResource at $237MM of Opening Day payroll, which would be a club record.
Turning to Houston, their outfield is a clear weak spot on the roster — at least on paper — following the trade of Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. Houston will have Jake Meyer in center field, where he’ll be flanked by a combination of Chas McCormick, Taylor Trammell and Mauricio Dubon. Other options on the 40-man roster include Kenedy Corona, Pedro Leon and Cooper Hummel. Clearly, an upgrade would be a worthwhile pursuit.
Ownership’s wherewithal to make such an addition is an open question. Jim Crane has said he’s open to paying the luxury tax for a second straight season — and just the second time in his ownership tenure — but there’s been mixed messaging with regard to his actions. On the one hand, Houston offered Alex Bregman a reported six-year, $156MM contract. That’s a legitimate offer, and the corresponding $26MM average annual value would’ve sent the ’Stros careening into the middle tiers of luxury penalty.
On the other hand, trading Tucker, even with an extension unlikely, represents a step in the opposite direction. Granted, that swap helped to pave the way for the signing of Christian Walker on a three-year, $60MM deal. But, it can be argued that if Crane were truly amenable to stepping over that tax threshold, he could’ve fit Tucker and Walker onto the roster. The team has also been shopping reliever Ryan Pressly throughout the offseason, and general manager Dana Brown even kicked the winter off by speaking of a need to “get creative” with payroll. None of those facts portend a willingness to exceed the tax barrier — at least not by any notable amount.
As things stand, RosterResource has the Astros over the tax threshold, but only by a narrow margin of about $3MM. A trade of Pressly or another player — e.g. McCormick, Dubon, Victor Caratini — could drop them back under that line, but it’d be tough to shoehorn Profar in under the barrier without finding a trade partner for Pressly and another player. If Crane is willing to take a small CBT hit, knowing dead-money commitments to Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero will help them reset their penalty level next offseason, then moving Pressly on its own might be enough to make things line up.
Time will tell how the market for Profar plays out, but he’s now the most-productive left fielder still sitting on the market. He’s reportedly been seeking a three-year pact. It’s unlikely that’d come with the type of AAV secured by Hernandez ($22MM) or Santander ($18.5MM), but something in the range of O’Neill’s three-year, $49.5MM contract wouldn’t have seemed too outlandish coming into the offseason. With many teams already having filled their roster needs, demand might not be sufficient to get Profar to such heights, but a multi-year deal and eight-figure AAV still seem plenty feasible.
