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Phillies To Re-Sign J.T. Realmuto

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The Phillies and J.T. Realmuto have an agreement in place to reunite on a new deal. It’s a $45MM guarantee over three years for the CAA Sports client, with incentives worth $5MM annually. The Phils have a full 40-man roster and will need a corresponding move to make this official. Ken Rosenthal and Matt Gelb of The Athletic first reported the two sides were close. Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Robert Murray of FanSided reported the agreement was in place and provided specifics of the contract.

At the beginning of the offseason, it seemed likely that Realmuto and the Phils would get back together, but there were some notable twists and turns along the way. Back in early December, it was reported that the Phils had an offer out to Realmuto.

No specifics of that offer were reported but it the two sides were apparently far enough apart to explore other options. Just over a week later, it was reported that the Phils were looking into other potential solutions behind the plate. An even more ambitious pivot came to light in January. With infielder Bo Bichette unsigned, the Phils seemed to genuinely pursue him. Various reports suggested that if the Phils signed Bichette, they would have to move on from Realmuto and third baseman Alec Bohm.

That appears to check out from a financial point of view. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Phils thought they were going to sign Bichette for $200MM over seven years, an average annual value of $28.57MM. Realmuto was projected for something around $15MM annually, with MLBTR predicting him for a $30MM deal over two years at the beginning of the offseason. Bohm is going to make $10.2MM in his final season of club control.

Essentially, it seems the Phils were willing to spend another $15MM to $20MM on upgrading the lineup. Signing Bichette and then trading Bohm would have added about that much. But the Mets swooped in and have an agreement in place with Bichette, a three-year deal with huge average annual values and opt-outs after each season. That not only deprived the Phillies of Bichette but also landed him with a division rival. Barely an hour later, the Phils have quickly pivoted to the more straightforward path, bringing back their longtime stalwart behind the plate.

Though it is somewhat straightforward to bring back Realmuto, this is still a notable commitment. Realmuto turns 35 in March and will therefore play this deal through his age-37 season. There’s decline risk with any position player that age but particularly with catchers. Every backstop in the majors in 2025 was in his age-36 season or younger, except for Martín Maldonado, who is now retired. Realmuto was already one of the oldest full-time catchers in the league last year. Salvador Perez is one year older but even he has started to spend more time at first base or as the designated hitter in recent seasons.

Realmuto and Perez have been the two workhorses of the position over the past decade-plus. Dating back to the start of the 2015, Realmuto has appeared in 1362 games and Perez 1304. However, Realmuto actually appeared as a catcher in 1,252 of those contests whereas Perez only put on the gear for 980. That kind of workload can be an argument for or against Realmuto. His ability to shoulder a massive workload relative to his peers is right there in the numbers but that could also be the very thing that works against him as he ages.

The signs of decline are already somewhat apparent. At the plate, Realmuto has clearly fallen from his peak. From 2018 to 2022, when he was in his late 20s and early 30s, he produced a combined .272/.339/.476 batting line. That resulted in a 118 wRC+, indicating he was 18% better than the league average hitter for that span. Over the past three years, he has slashed .257/.315/.421 for a wRC+ of 100. In 2025, he hit .257/.315/.384 for a wRC+ of 94. That’s still pretty good for a catcher, as backstops generally hit about 10% worse than the league-wide average, but the trend lines aren’t great.

There are yellow flags on the defensive side as well. Outlets like FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast ranked him as an above-average pitch framer from 2018 to 2022 but with negative grades over the past three years. His grades for controlling the running game and blocking pitches haven’t declined as consistently across all out those outlets but there has been a bit of downward creep. Statcast, for instance, had him as a subpar blocker in the past two years.

Taking the Perez route and coming out from behind the plate isn’t a likely in Philadelphia. As mentioned, Realmuto’s offense has been declining, which wouldn’t be ideal for him if he were at first base or in the designated hitter slot. The Phils don’t have those opportunities available for him regardless, with Bryce Harper locked in at first base and Kyle Schwarber essentially a full-time DH. Harper is signed through 2031 and Schwarber 2030.

All those concerns are presumably things the Phillies are aware of, thus explaining why they toyed with the idea of a future without Realmuto. But despite all the concerns, Realmuto was still the best free agent catcher available this winter and the Phils clearly needed to do something. Rafael Marchán and Garrett Stubbs are on the roster but neither would have been an ideal everyday option behind the plate. Stubbs has 203 big league games under his belt with subpar offense and defense. Marchan’s big league numbers are a bit more encouraging but he has just 82 games under his belt.

In the end, the Phils are sticking with the devil they know. Though there are real concerns in the numbers, there are also the unquantifiable things to consider with a catcher. The Phils have seen Realmuto work with their pitchers for seven years now and presumably are happy to have him continue doing that for another three years.

More to come.

Mets To Sign Bo Bichette

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The Mets wasted little time in changing gears after missing out on the offseason’s top free agent. They’ve reportedly agreed to a massive three-year, $126MM contract with free agent infielder Bo Bichette. The Vayner Sports client can opt out of the contract after this season and after the 2027 campaign, and if he chooses to do so he’ll pick up an additional $5MM bonus. The contract, which does not contain any deferred money and affords Bichette a full no-trade clause, is pending the completion of a physical.

It’s a stunning and near-immediate pivot for a Mets club that is barely 12 hours removed from losing out on Kyle Tucker, who just last night went to the Dodgers. Los Angeles outbid the Mets’ reported four-year, $220MM deal with a four-year, $240MM contract that gives Tucker two opt-out opportunities (post-2027 and post-2028). Having missed on that big swing, the Mets now pivot to the market’s next-best bat and next-best all-around free agent, bringing Bichette in on a $42MM annual value that ties Zack Wheeler for the sixth-largest in MLB history.

In landing Bichette, the Mets are not only pivoting from Tucker in arguably the most notable way possible — they’re also keeping him from a division rival that had emerged as the ostensible frontrunner. Bichette met with the Phillies earlier this week, and reporting since that time had suggested that the Phils might be the team most apt to sign him on the long-term pact he’d coveted. Instead, Bichette lands a mammoth annual value that could grow even further (via that $5MM bonus) if he opts out and returns to the market next winter, ahead of what would still be only his age-29 season.

Though the fit isn’t necessarily as clean as Tucker would have been for a Mets club that already had a deep infield and was lacking in outfielders, Bichette adds a clear plus bat to manager Carlos Mendoza’s lineup. The 27-year-old (28 in March) has been a well above-average hitter in all but one of his seven major league campaigns — a 2024 season that was cut short by multiple calf injuries and a broken finger standing as the lone exception.

Bichette hit just .225/.277/.322 in 80 games during that awful 2024 campaign. He not only bounced back in 2025 but turned in arguably the best performance of his career on a rate basis, slashing .311/.357/.483 with 18 home runs in 628 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+ (134), it was Bichette’s best season since his late call-up during the 2019 campaign (MLB’s juiced-ball season).

Even on its surface, Bichette’s 2025 season looks excellent. It doesn’t tell the tale of his finish, though, which had both positives and one very obvious negative. Bichette actually had a tepid start to his 2025 campaign. The underlying batted-ball data through his first month-plus was strong, but he hit just .275/.316/.363 through the first week of May. From that point forth, Bichette caught fire. Over his next 457 plate appearances, he laid waste to opposing pitchers at a .325/.372/.528 clip. That was 50% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+, and even that doesn’t fully do justice to Bichette’s jaw-dropping summer; over his final 238 plate appearances, the second-generation All-Star went supernova with a .381/.437/.591 slash (187 wRC+).

Unfortunately for both Bichette and the Blue Jays, that previously mentioned “very obvious negative” struck in early September when he suffered a sprained posterior cruciate ligament in his knee and missed the remainder of the regular season. He was also inactive for the early rounds of postseason play, only returning in the World Series. Bichette was clearly hobbled during the Fall Classic, limping to first base with ’88 Gibson-esque speed when putting the ball in play and displaying a lack of range at a new position: second base. Bichette’s shortstop glovework has been panned for years, and the Jays took the downtime as an opportunity to shift the defensively superior Andres Gimenez over to shortstop in his absence.

Despite the clearly injured knee, Bichette’s bat didn’t miss a beat in the World Series. He went 8-for-23 with seven singles and a titanic three-run homer off Shohei Ohtani in Game 7 of the World Series. Had the Jays’ bullpen managed to hold the lead, that would-be game-winner would have trailed only Joe Carter’s walk-off blast in franchise lore. Of course, that’s not how the game turned out, but Bichette’s 442-foot bomb still served to further underscore that even at less than 100%, he was a clear impact bat.

Bichette now carries a lifetime .294/.337/.469 batting line with him to Queens. He’s been 20-35% better than an average hitter every season of his career with the exception of that 2024 outlier, and this past season’s 14.5% strikeout rate was a career-low. He couples those plus-plus contact skills with above-average power and high-end batted-ball data; Bichette averaged 91 mph off the bat this past season (72nd percentile), and his 48.8% hard-hit rate sat in the 83rd percentile of big league hitters.

The question for Bichette and the Mets is how well he can handle a move to third base. His shortstop deficiencies were largely due to sub-par range. He doesn’t have a plus throwing arm necessarily, but it’s closer to average — at least in terms of the average velocity on his throws, as measured by Statcast — than was the case with his bottom-of-the-scale lateral movement. Bichette averaged 82.3 mph on his throws across the diamond last year — below par in MLB but still an upgrade (at least in terms of pure arm strength) over the man he’ll be replacing at the hot corner, Brett Baty (81.2 mph). Bichette may not be a plus defender at third, but even average defense coupled with his bat and good health would result in All-Star output.

Baty could now bounce between multiple positions. He’s played second base and left field in the past, and the Mets would surely be open to experimenting with him at first base, too. The designated hitter slot provides more opportunities for all. It’s a similar range of possibilities to the one faced by Jorge Polanco, who inked a two-year, $40MM deal last month. Polanco will reportedly be used extensively at first base and designated hitter despite having virtually no prior first base experience.

For a team that has preached run prevention for much of the offseason, lining up with Bichette at third base and Polanco/Baty at first probably isn’t how they drew things up originally — but the offseason is a layered beast that rarely unfolds in alignment with even the best-laid plans. Even if the Mets’ infield defense (and outfield defense, for that matter) is lacking, it’ll be solid up the middle thanks to Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien. It should also be a highly productive offensive unit — particularly if Semien’s bat can bounce back at all.

Of course, the addition of Bichette also makes a potential trade of Baty — and several other infielders — more likely. Clubs seeking third base help include the Mariners, Angels and Pirates (as explored at length yesterday), among others. Any could show interest in Baty, Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuña and/or Ronny Mauricio. Acuña, Vientos and Mauricio have all reportedly been available throughout the offseason anyhow. Some form of move seems likely, especially when considering both Acuña and Vientos are out of minor league options and looking to bounce back from poor seasons.

From a payroll vantage point, the Bichette contract is all the more staggering. Not only is the $42MM annual value the sixth-largest ever, it’s also only a fraction of what the Mets will actually have to pay due to this signing. New York was already on the cusp of the top tier of luxury penalization. Bichette catapults them $33MM north of that final cutoff point, per RosterResource’s estimates. They’ll pay a 95% tax on the first roughly $9MM of his annual value and a full-freight 110% tax on the remaining $33MM. Assuming an even distribution of his $126MM over the three-year term, the Mets would be paying more than $86MM for Bichette in 2026 alone. If he triggers that $5MM bonus upon opting out next winter, that’d also be subject to a 110% tax, bringing the Mets’ total bill on Bichette to about $97MM for just one year.

Moreover, the signing underscores the minimal amount that many big-market, CBT-paying clubs care about paying the 110% tax on short-term deals marquee players. The Dodgers’ signing of Tucker — just as will be the case with Bichette’s deal — has rekindled public outcry for a salary cap, but the players will likely only use these deals to illustrate the discrepancy between the middle and upper class of free agents; the union will surely argue that a cap would only further expand that gap and point out that half the money paid by CBT offenders is redistributed to other teams (in addition to standard revenue-sharing). That won’t fly with small-market owners, who’ll argue that they can’t compete with this type of expenditure. Both sides will dig in their heels.

It’s also fair to wonder whether this is a short-term blip or a burgeoning trend. Even big-market clubs seem increasingly against long-term contracts. For years, it was the Dodgers who tended to prefer short-term, high-AAV deals. But we’ve now seen the Mets limit their Tucker offer to four years and go three super-premium years on Bichette — while also declining to go beyond three years for Pete Alonso or Edwin Diaz. The Red Sox clearly prefer the trade market to free agency and surprised onlookers by even extending to five years to sign Ranger Suárez. The Yankees have reportedly been stuck on five years for their offer to Cody Bellinger while he seeks a seven-year term. Giants ownership publicly voiced an aversion to signing any pitchers to long-term contracts.

If baseball is indeed moving more toward NBA-style contracts — short term, ultra-high annual value — it’d mark a dramatic shift for a sport whose top players have overwhelmingly (albeit not always) preferred the stability of long-term arrangements, even if that means sacrificing some money on an annual basis. Time will tell, but that will all factor into both parties’ approach at the negotiating table next winter in an offseason that is widely expected to be impacted by a lockout and transaction freeze.

Turning back to the teams directly impacted by today’s signing, the Mets will part with their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft as well as $1MM of space from next year’s bonus pool for international amateur free agents. That’s due to the fact that Bichette declined a $22.025MM qualifying offer. By that same token, the Blue Jays will be compensated with an extra pick. That selection will come after the fourth round of this summer’s draft — the lowest possible compensation — due to Toronto’s status as a luxury tax payor.

For the Jays, parting with Bichette has at least seemed possible throughout the winter but began to look more certain once they signed star NPB third baseman Kazuma Okamoto and plugged him into an already crowded infield. There was still some room for Bichette to return, but Toronto’s focus has reportedly been on Tucker. With Bichette now formally out of the picture, they’re lined up to go with Ernie Clement at second base, Gimenez at shortstop and Okamoto/Addison Barger at third base.

As for the Phillies, they’ve made their own immediate pivot, upping their offer to give longtime catcher J.T. Realmuto the third year he’s sought. Less than two hours after the Bichette agreement broke, Realmuto and the Phillies had a new deal in place. Philadelphia had reportedly only been comfortable signing one of Bichette or Realmuto, with the recent preference seeming to be the former. A Bichette signing would likely have led to Realmuto going elsewhere and one of Alec Bohm or Bryson Stott being traded. Trading either feels less likely — but certainly not impossible — now that Bichette is in Queens and Realmuto is staying put.

Even Bichette himself will now have major questions to consider in the near-term future. With a big season, he’ll assuredly opt out of his contract, cashing in $47MM (or thereabouts, depending on the division of salary) for one year and re-entering the market as a 28-year-old who can’t receive a qualifying offer. If he can do that and prove himself capable of playing an average or better third base, he could come out hundreds of millions ahead. That’s far from a given, though, and he’ll need to make that decision against the backdrop of a looming labor stoppage.

It’s a dizzying sequence of interwoven, high-priced payouts for star players — the ramifications of which will reach further than we can accurately predict at this time. It seems clear that the Mets have at least one move coming with regard to their infield glut, and they’re still in search of help both in the rotation and in the outfield. With Tucker and Bichette coming off the board within a matter of 15 hours, Cody Bellinger suddenly stands as the top position player available — possibly with several clubs now keying in on him and providing more pressure for the incumbent Yankees to bridge the gap between their five-year offer and his seven-year ask. Will Bellinger similarly pivot to a short-term, high-AAV contract? If so, will that be in the Bronx or with a new club?

Questions abound, and there are surely several moves yet to be made, but the Mets are a more talented and more dangerous team now than they were this time yesterday — even if it’s not due to the player they were originally targeting. Their pivot is likely only just beginning, but adding a prime-aged, multi-time All-Star who has twice led the American League in hits is a pretty good first step in a pivot.

Will Sammon of The Athletic first reported the agreement and contract length. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman added the total guarantee and no-trade clause. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic added details regarding the opt-outs and lack of deferrals. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported that Bichette was likely to play third base in Queens.

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White Sox Interested In Michael Conforto

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The White Sox have some interest in free agent outfielder Michael Conforto, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Conforto was with the Dodgers in 2025 but never seemed likely to return there even before Los Angeles made their stunning agreement with Kyle Tucker last night.

Conforto, 33 in March, is coming off a few down years. His best stretch of play was with the Mets earlier in his career. Through the end of the 2020 season, he had 623 games under his belt, with a .259/.358/.484 line and 128 wRC+. He was good for 30ish home runs from 2017 to 2019 and then hit nine over the fence in the shortened 2020 season.

He hasn’t really been at that level since. His production scuffled in 2021, with just 14 home runs and total offense closer to league average. Shoulder surgery wiped out his 2022 season entirely. He then signed a two-year deal with the Giants. In 2023, he was again around league average overall, with 15 home runs for the year.

The second year of that pact was a bit more encouraging. Conforto hit 20 home runs and slashed .237/.309/.450. That line was 12% better than league average by measure of wRC+. That wasn’t up to his prime years with the Mets but was his best showing in a while.

It was also possible to squint and see the potential for more. His first half was interrupted by a hamstring strain and he never seemed to get into a groove. He stayed healthy in the second half and caught fire, with a .272/.337/.543 line and 143 wRC+ in his final 169 plate appearances.

The Dodgers decided to make a bet on that hot finish, signing Conforto to a one-year pact worth $17MM but with deferrals. That didn’t work out. Conforto slashed .199/.305/.333 on the year for an 83 wRC+. The Dodgers did not carry him on the roster into the postseason.

After that down season, his earning power should be lower than it was a year ago. He would therefore make sense for the White Sox as a buy-low option who theoretically has some upside. He has only sporadically shown that upside lately but even his down 2025 season had some theoretical reasons for optimism.

His 11.5% walk rate last year was quite strong. His 24.9% strikeout rate a tad high but pretty normal for him. His .247 batting average on balls in play was quite low, so he may have had poor luck on the year. His Statcast data wasn’t elite but wasn’t poor either. His bat speed was in the 77th percentile of big leaguers. His barrel rate was 56th, his hard hit rate 53rd and his average exit velocity 48th.

The Sox are deep in a rebuild and won’t be contending soon. They would be one of the clubs best suited to take a flier on Conforto and hope for a return to form, as a contending club would presumably prefer a player with a more impressive recent track record. If he has a strong first half, he could then be flipped at the trade deadline for a prospect or two.

Chicago’s outfield currently projects to include Luis Robert Jr. and Andrew Benintendi in two spots. Those two are themselves candidates to be traded this year. They could each also stand to spend some time in the designated hitter slot, given their injury histories.

Brooks Baldwin, Tristan Peters, Derek Hill, Everson Pereira and some other young players should be in the mix for outfield playing time. Baldwin and Peters still have options and could be sent to the minors. Hill and Pereira are out of options but are the kind of fringe roster players who could clear waivers and be outrighted to the minors as non-roster depth.

With Tucker now signed, the outfield free agent market has Cody Bellinger up top and then a notable gap to the other options. Harrison Bader would arguably be the second-best option, with guys like Conforto, Mike Tauchman, Austin Hays, Miguel Andujar and others forming the next tier. Max Kepler would have been in this cluster somewhere but he recently received an 80-game PED suspension. That cuts into his appeal both because he’ll miss the first half of the season and then wouldn’t be eligible for the postseason.

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

Red Sox Could Trade From Rotation After Suárez Deal

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The Red Sox went big with their first free agent signing of the winter, adding Ranger Suárez for five years and $130MM on Wednesday. That followed trade acquisitions of Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo, meaning the Sox could enter the season having replaced 60% of their rotation.

Even with Lucas Giolito departing in free agency, the Red Sox have eight to ten viable options. They’ll be anchored at the top end by Garrett Crochet, Suárez and Gray. It’s unlikely that Boston would flip Oviedo within a few months of giving up a reasonably well-regarded outfield prospect (Jhostynxon Garcia) to acquire him. Beyond that, the Sox could dangle any of their starters on the trade market.

Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic and Sean McAdam of MassLive each wrote this week that a rotation trade was a possibility. The Sox don’t need to force one unless overwhelmed by an offer. Starting pitching depth can quickly thin, and most of Boston’s back-end arms have minor league options remaining. They can load up the rotation at Triple-A Worcester to prepare for injuries over the course of a 162-game schedule.

On the other hand, dealing a starter could get the Sox their finishing piece in the infield. They lost the bidding for Alex Bregman, leaving them short at least one player on the dirt. Even if they’re comfortable turning the hot corner to Marcelo Mayer, they don’t have a clear answer at second base. They don’t want to take Ceddanne Rafaela out of center field, where he’s one of the best defenders in the sport. Kristian Campbell struggled defensively as a rookie, and it seems the organization prefers him in the outfield. A platoon of David Hamilton and Romy Gonzalez is underwhelming for a win-now team in a competitive division.

If the Suárez signing was their one big free agent move in the budget, the Red Sox should find a way to add an infielder on the trade front. The Sox were tied to Ketel Marte before the Diamondbacks pulled him from the market. They’ve been linked to Brendan Donovan, although Ari Alexander of 7 Boston News suggests they’d prefer a right-handed bat and thus may not be as motivated as some other teams on Donovan (e.g. Giants, Mariners).

The Red Sox have been tied to Houston third baseman Isaac Paredes throughout the winter. Astros GM Dana Brown has downplayed the club’s interest in moving an infielder, but that hasn’t stopped teams from calling. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com wrote this week that teams continue to engage the Astros to see if they can change their minds on Paredes. Houston has added a pair of potential mid-rotation starters, Mike Burrows and Tatsuya Imai, but they remain light on controllable starting pitching.

Let’s take a run through the possibilities if chief baseball officer Craig Breslow does move a starter.

Payton Tolle/Connelly Early

If the Sox deal from their rotation, these would be their two most valuable trade chips. Tolle and Early both debuted late in the 2025 season. Early was very good over four abbreviated starts. Tolle struggled over seven appearances, but that’s not going to deter teams from having interest in a 23-year-old who pitched his way to the big leagues within his first full professional season.

Tolle and Early respectively rank as the Sox’s top and third-best prospects at Baseball America. Tolle has bigger stuff, averaging 97 MPH on a heater that plays up even further based on his excellent extension and above-average life at the top of the zone. Early also gets good extension and has fantastic secondary stuff, headlined by a plus changeup. His 94 MPH fastball is closer to average, but he’s a superior strike-thrower to Tolle.

Both pitchers have six years of club control and a trio of minor league options. Teams are loath to part with starters who have this level of talent. It’s unlikely the Sox would trade either pitcher for a player who is a year from free agency. Would they entertain it for a controllable star hitter? McCaffrey and McAdam both floated the possibility of the Sox trying to reengage with Arizona on Marte by dangling one of Tolle or Early alongside an outfielder like Jarren Duran or Rafaela. Even if the Diamondbacks are committed to moving forward with Marte, the general idea is that the Sox would only move one of their most talented starters for an impact bat.

Brayan Bello

Bello will make $6MM next season and is signed for a total of $50.5MM over the next four years. There’s a club option for 2030 that gives the Sox a fifth season of control. Bello would be locked into the fourth starter role if he’s not traded. The 26-year-old righty has briefly come up in conversations this offseason, albeit with uncertainty about how willing the Sox are to move him.

Last season, Bello ranked second on the team with 166 2/3 innings. He turned in a 3.35 earned run average but didn’t have as favorable reviews from estimators like FIP (4.19) and SIERA (4.55). That’s due to a career-low 17.7% strikeout rate. Bello’s 8.6% swinging strike percentage was also a personal low and ranked in the bottom 25 among all MLB pitchers (min. 100 innings pitched). It’s difficult to maintain mid-rotation results with that level of swing and miss.

Bello has good velocity, averaging 95 MPH on his sinker and four-seam fastball. The sinker is the better of the two offerings, and he leans on it more as a ground-ball pitch than one that gets a lot of whiffs. While Bello has missed more bats in previous seasons, he has always had more of a ground-ball approach. There’s volatility baked into that, and the Sox don’t project to have a great infield defense behind him. Bello is probably closer to a league average arm than the ERA would indicate. That’s still valuable at the remaining $12.625MM average annual value on his contract. Notably, if the Sox chose to move Bello, they’d be trimming what’s currently a $9.166MM luxury hit from their current books (the overall AAV of his extension, which covers the 2024-29 seasons).

Kutter Crawford/Patrick Sandoval

Both pitchers missed the entire 2025 season. Crawford, who is signed for $2.75MM in his second of four arbitration years, began the year on the shelf with right knee discomfort. He injured his right wrist a couple months later and underwent surgery. Crawford had been a swingman for his first couple seasons but stepped into a full-time rotation role in 2024. He pitched well for a few months until a second-half home run spike pushed his ERA to 4.36 across 183 2/3 innings.

Crawford had slightly above-average strikeout and walk marks a couple seasons ago. The home runs and injury history are concerns, but he’s cheaply controllable through 2028 and could be a league average starter if he’s healthy. He also has a pair of minor league options, so there’s a decent amount of roster flexibility for the Sox or any team that acquires him. He’s well behind Tolle, Early and Bello in terms of trade value but would have some appeal if the Sox tried to swap him for a utility infielder or controllable bullpen piece.

The Sox knew that Sandoval was unlikely to pitch much (if at all) in 2025 when they signed him to a two-year, $18.25MM contract early in his rehab from June ’24 Tommy John surgery. They backloaded the deal, paying $5.5MM for his rehab year and a $12.75MM salary for the upcoming season. The 29-year-old Sandoval was a mid-rotation starter over his final three seasons as a member of the Angels. He pitched to a 3.84 ERA with a 21.9% strikeout rate in nearly 400 innings between 2022-24. His command is fringy but he sits around 94 MPH and has above-average secondaries with his changeup and slider.

Boston may not want to trade Sandoval for a modest return after paying more than $5MM to cover his rehab year. The front office liked him enough to sign him to that deal in the first place. Yet the rotation picture has changed, and Sandoval’s five-plus years of service mean he can’t be sent to the minors. They might be better off trusting Oviedo or Crawford as the fifth starter and getting some of Sandoval’s contract off the books for a utility or bullpen pickup.

Kyle Harrison

Of the players acquired from the Giants in the Rafael Devers trade, Harrison was probably the centerpiece. The deal was mostly about moving on from Devers and shedding his contract. The Sox kept Harrison in Triple-A for much of the ’25 season even as their rotation was being hit by injuries. They finally brought him up in September. Harrison pitched well over his first two outings before getting knocked around in his third. The Sox carried him on their Wild Card Series roster but didn’t use him, opting instead to go with the rookie Early in a must-win Game 3.

Harrison has a decent arm, sitting in the 94-95 MPH range. His secondary stuff and command have been inconsistent, and he owns a 4.39 ERA across 194 2/3 career innings. Harrison is under club control for at least five seasons and has a pair of options remaining. There’d be plenty of teams interested if the Sox shopped him, but his stock has dropped since he was one of the sport’s top pitching prospects a couple seasons ago. Boston is probably better served holding him and hoping for a step forward in his age-24 season.

Tanner Houck

An offseason Houck trade wouldn’t accomplish much and feels unlikely. He’s coming off a terrible year that culminated in an August Tommy John procedure. He’s expected to miss the ’26 season and would have minimal appeal to another team. Houck agreed to a $4.1MM salary to avoid arbitration and should make the same amount for his final year of club control . They can place him on the 60-day injured list once Spring Training opens.

The Opener: Tucker, Roster Moves, Fan Events

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Tucker aftermath:

The Dodgers made waves last night when they landed star outfielder Kyle Tucker on a four-year, $240MM deal that shattered AAV records and affords him opt-out opportunities after the second and third seasons. Though the Dodgers were commonly listed as one of Tucker’s three potential landing spots in his final days on the open market, the deal is still an upset of sorts, given that both the Mets and Blue Jays were more heavily linked to him over the past couple weeks. It remains to be seen how Toronto and New York will pivot after missing out. Perhaps the Blue Jays could look to ramp talks with star infielder Bo Bichette back up. Either team could feasibly try to pivot towards the No. 2 outfielder on this year’s market, Cody Bellinger.

As for the Dodgers, it’s worth wondering whether there will be any subsequent moves. They could deal from what’s now an even more crowded and star-studded big league roster — Teoscar Hernandez’s name has already popped up in rumors a bit this winter, even before the Tucker deal — and they also have several top-tier outfield prospects (e.g. Josue De Paula, Zyhir Hope) whose path to the majors is further obfuscated by the latest blockbuster acquisition.

2. Incoming roster moves:

The Rockies, Red Sox, and Dodgers are all going to need to make 40-man roster moves in the coming days as their respective recent signings of Willi Castro, Ranger Suarez, and Tucker become official. The most likely way for those clubs to clear up that 40-man roster space is by simply designating a player for assignment, though it’s also possible that any of those teams could look to work out a trade that creates space on their 40-man roster by acquiring non-roster players. The Dodgers already went down that road not too long ago when they traded outfielder Esteury Ruiz to the Marlins.

3. Cubs, Reds hosting fan events:

With spring training less than a month away, teams around the league are hosting fan events to get their fan bases excited for the upcoming season. This weekend, two clubs are hosting events: the annual Cubs Convention in Chicago is scheduled to take place today, tomorrow, and Sunday, while today and tomorrow will also play host to Redsfest in Cincinnati. Cubs Con will be highlighted by a ten-year reunion for the World Series-winning 2016 team, while both events will both have a number of current and former players involved. Events like this can often (but not always) produce quotes of note from team owners, front offices and/or managers that provide some insight into the remainder of the offseason and the outlook for the upcoming campaign. Full schedules and ticketing details for the Cubs’ and Reds’ respective fan events can be found at these links, courtesy of MLB.com.

Dodgers To Sign Kyle Tucker

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The two-time defending champions have done it again. The Dodgers are reportedly in agreement with Kyle Tucker on a four-year, $240MM contract. The deal includes $30MM in deferrals and will come with an approximate $57.1MM annual value for luxury tax purposes. Tucker, a client of Excel Sports Management, receives a $64MM signing bonus — all but $10MM of which is paid upfront — and can opt out after the second or third seasons. The team has not officially announced the signing, which is pending a physical, and will need to create a 40-man roster spot once it’s official.

Tucker, who turns 29 on Saturday, is the latest superstar addition to what was already MLB’s most feared offense. He slots into a lineup alongside Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernández and Tommy Edman. He’ll join Hernández and Andy Pages as the primary outfielders, with Edman capable of logging center field action when he’s not at second base.

Los Angeles has four outfield prospects who rank prominently near the top of their farm system. They reportedly wanted to avoid locking in long-term commitments as a result. They’ve accomplished that with arguably the biggest annual value in the sport’s history.

It’s a $60MM average on the surface. Without adjusting for deferrals, Tucker’s deal would be the second-highest AAV ever. Ohtani landed a $70MM AAV on his 10-year, $700MM guarantee, though the massive deferrals meant it had a “true” annual value closer to $46MM. One should therefore view the $51MM annual salary on Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765M deal as the more accurate record holder until tonight. Tucker’s adjusted AAV beats that by more than $6MM.

Although Tucker was this offseason’s top free agent, he’s a clear step below the likes of Aaron Judge, Ohtani and Soto of the previous three winters. Tucker has been a consistent All-Star who’s a little outside the top tier of superstars. The fifth overall pick by the Astros in 2015, he broke out in the shortened 2020 season after logging limited big league action in the two preceding years. He connected on 29 or 30 home runs in each of his first three full campaigns, improving his approach along the way.

Tucker was already a great hitter and seemed to be on his way to pulling closer to Judge, Soto and Ohtani with a monster start to the 2024 season. He was out to a .266/.395/.584 slash with more walks than strikeouts through the first two months. He fouled a ball off his right leg and was placed on the injured list with what the Astros initially termed a shin contusion. It turned out to be more serious, as subsequent testing revealed a fracture that kept him out for three months.

The four-time All-Star returned no worse for wear and had a fantastic September. The Astros nevertheless decided to field trade calls after the season. They were never going to meet Tucker’s asking price on an extension and felt they could cash him in for help elsewhere on the roster. They lined up a deal with the Cubs around the Winter Meetings that sent Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and prospect Cam Smith to Houston for Tucker’s final year of arbitration.

Tucker’s lone season in Chicago had its ups and downs. He got out to another blistering start, running a .284/.359/.524 slash with 12 homers through the first day of June. He jammed his right thumb diving into second on a stolen base attempt that day. He avoided the injured list, but subsequent testing revealed that he sustained a tiny fracture at the top of his hand between his ring finger and pinky.

The hand injury wasn’t viewed as a serious issue until Tucker’s performance began to suffer. That didn’t occur right away. His next few weeks were the finest of the season, in fact. Tucker slashed .311/.404/.578 across 25 games that month. Things went off the rails in July, as he batted .189/.325/.235 with just one home run over the next six weeks.

The existence of the hairline fracture wasn’t reported until the middle of August. Cubs officials acknowledged that Tucker had been injured in June but said that he was fully healthy by the time the injury was revealed publicly. Maybe the thumb became a retroactive explanation for what was actually a simple slump, though it’s possible he developed some subtle bad habits in June as he tried to mitigate the pain of hitting through the break. Manager Craig Counsell gave Tucker a three-game mental reset towards the end of August before plugging him back into the middle of the order.

Tucker appeared to be getting back into a groove when he hit another speed bump. He strained his left calf in early September and landed on the injured list, costing him three weeks in the season’s final month. He finished the regular season with a .266/.377/.464 slash line in a little under 600 trips to the plate. He hit .259 with one homer in eight postseason games as the Cubs advanced to the NL Division Series.

The uneven second half soured some Cubs fans on the Tucker acquisition. His overall numbers were in line with his career marks. The offense was 36 percentage points better than league average by wRC+. His lifetime .273/.358/.507 batting line is 38 points above par. Tucker has been in that range in four of the past five seasons. The only exception is his .289/.408/.585 showing over 78 games two years ago.

The ’24 season is probably an outlier, but the Dodgers should feel they’re adding one of the top 10-15 hitters in MLB. He doesn’t expand the strike zone and has a rare blend of plus contact skills and above-average power. Tucker has no issue hitting pitchers of either handedness. He doesn’t have the huge exit velocities of the sport’s premier sluggers, yet he’s a safe bet for 25-30 homers in a healthy season.

Tucker’s glove isn’t as strong at this stage of his career. He won a Gold Glove with Houston in 2022. His defensive grades and sprint speed have declined as he’s gotten into his late-20s. That presumably gave teams pause when considering a long-term investment. Tucker’s defense should remain serviceable in the short term. The Dodgers can comfortably plug him into right field and kick Hernández over to left if they don’t trade him.

The Cubs issued Tucker a qualifying offer but made little effort to retain him. The bidding seemingly came down to the Dodgers, Mets and Blue Jays. New York was similarly hesitant to make a long-term commitment, as they reportedly offered a four-year deal at $55MM per season. Toronto was seemingly willing to entertain a longer term at a lower annual value.

Tucker is L.A.’s second qualified free agent signing of the offseason. They added Edwin Díaz on a three-year, $69MM deal around the Winter Meetings. They surrendered their second- and fifth-round draft choices this summer, plus $1MM from their 2027 international bonus pool, to sign Díaz. They’ll forfeit their third- and sixth-round picks for Tucker. The Cubs receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round (currently slated to land 77th overall).

MLBTR had predicted an 11-year, $400MM deal for Tucker at the beginning of the offseason. It’s unclear if any team would have been willing to go to those lengths. He’s giving up some measure of long-term security in exchange for massive salaries over the next couple seasons and the chance to return to free agency at the tail end of his prime.

He’ll have the option of retesting the market before his age-31 and age-32 campaigns — and without being attached to draft compensation barring a change to the qualifying offer rules in the intervening CBA. A five- or six-year guarantee could be well within range at that point. He’ll collect a huge signing bonus, essentially shatter the record for average annual value, and join the team with the best chance to win the World Series in the interim.

While the specific salary breakdown hasn’t been reported, the Dodgers are reportedly paying $54MM of the signing bonus right away. RosterResource estimates their cash payroll obligations close to $428MM for the upcoming season. Tucker’s $57.1MM AAV will push their competitive balance tax projection north of $395MM.

They’re taxed at a 110% rate on spending above $304MM, so Tucker’s deal comes with a staggering $62.81MM tax hit in the first season. The Dodgers are essentially valuing Tucker’s 2026 season alone at $120MM. L.A. ended last season with a luxury tax payroll of $417MM, costing them another $169.4MM in taxes. Their tax bill alone was higher than the final payroll calculations of 12 teams. They’re trending towards a similar or potentially even greater amount in 2026 depending on what else they do this offseason and at the trade deadline. The aggressiveness continues as they aim for the first three-peat in MLB since the 1998-2000 Yankees.

Tucker’s deal is going to be the latest example for many fans and smaller-market owners who will argue for a salary cap in the upcoming round of collective bargaining negotiations. This level of spending also reaffirms why the MLB Players Association has steadfastly maintained that a cap is a non-starter. Next offseason’s CBA talks are expected to be similarly or even more contentious than those that froze the sport for 99 days during the 2022-23 lockout.

That’s not the concern of the Dodgers or their fans, who’ll be thrilled to add another star as they try to cement their dynastic run. They’ll be heavy favorites in the NL West, and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which this team doesn’t make the playoffs. A championship is far from guaranteed, however. The Jays were one swing away from beating them in Games 6 and 7 of last year’s World Series. An extra quarter-second on Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s dash home or another few feet on Ernie Clement’s fly ball in the bottom of the ninth would have flipped the outcome. L.A. ownership and the front office aren’t getting complacent.

After missing on Tucker, the Jays seem likely to reengage with Bo Bichette. Their longtime shortstop is now the top unsigned player. He has reportedly had a productive meeting with the Phillies, but the Jays and Bichette have long expressed mutual interest in a reunion. Bichette wouldn’t be a great fit for the Mets, but they could conceivably pivot to challenging the Yankees for Cody Bellinger. The Mets still don’t have a left fielder after swapping Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien. Their reported offer to Tucker demonstrates there’s plenty of room for short-term spending, but president of baseball operations David Stearns has shied away from lengthy commitments this winter.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Tucker was signing with the Dodgers. Jon Heyman of the New York Post had it as a short-term contract, while Robert Murray of FanSided was first on the four-year, $240MM guarantee. Murray reported the opt-out after the second season, and Passan had the third-year out. Heyman reported the $30MM in deferrals. Ari Alexander of Boston 7 News was first on the $57.1MM post-deferral AAV. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers had the signing bonus details.

Image courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images.

Mets Reportedly Offered Tucker Four Years, $220MM

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The Mets’ final offer to Kyle Tucker was for four years and $220MM, reports Jim Duquette of MLB Network on Sirius XM Radio. Jon Heyman of The New York Post adds that the offer included no deferred money and would have been slightly frontloaded, paying $120MM over the first two seasons. Will Sammon of The Athletic adds that it included a $75MM signing bonus and allowed Tucker to opt out after the second and third season.

It’s a very similar structure to the four-year, $240MM deal which Tucker accepted from the Dodgers. The opt-out provisions were identical. New York offered a higher signing bonus and the absence of deferred money, while the Dodgers went the extra $20MM on overall guarantee. The Mets’ offer would have come with a $55MM average annual value. Tucker’s agreement with L.A. will be calculated a little north of $57MM annually after adjusting the net present value to account for $30MM in deferrals.

Tucker and his camp opted for the higher guarantee and slightly stronger adjusted annual value. The four-time All-Star also joins a team that is coming off consecutive championships and will enter the 2026 season as the likeliest team to win it all again. The Mets certainly have the high-end talent to compete in the National League, but they’re coming off a second half collapse and have probably downgraded this offseason. They swapped Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien, signed Jorge Polanco to replace Pete Alonso, traded Jeff McNeil, and added Devin Williams and Luke Weaver to a bullpen that lost Edwin Díaz, Tyler Rogers and Ryan Helsley.

The Nimmo trade leaves the Mets in obvious need of a left fielder. Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests they’re likely to more seriously pursue Cody Bellinger at this point. That’d probably require them to reverse course on this winter’s aversion to long-term commitments. The Yankees reportedly have a five-year offer out to Bellinger in the $155-160MM range. That’s already a hefty annual value and a decent term, though his camp at the Boras Corporation is seemingly shooting for seven years.

Harrison Bader may be the only other everyday outfielder remaining in free agency. He’s a glove-first center fielder who had a middling season for the Mets just two years ago. They might not feel he’s a significant enough upgrade over Tyrone Taylor, and he’s certainly not an approximation for the middle-of-the-order bat they were trying to land in Tucker. They could be more aggressive on the trade front for someone like Jarren Duran or Lars Nootbaar. Getting the Red Sox to deal the former would likely require parting with one of their talented starting pitchers alongside immediate infield help (i.e. Brett Baty or Mark Vientos).

Rays, Angels, Reds Agree To Three-Team Trade Involving Josh Lowe, Gavin Lux

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While Kyle Tucker dominated baseball’s headlines, the Rays, Angels and Reds reportedly worked out a three-team trade. Outfielder Josh Lowe heads from Tampa Bay to the Angels. The Rays acquire utilityman Gavin Lux from Cincinnati and minor league pitcher Chris Clark from the Halos. The Reds get left-handed reliever Brock Burke from Los Angeles. The teams have not officially announced the deal.

It’s the second trade involving an everyday outfielder for the Angels this offseason. This time, the player is coming their way. Lowe will fill the outfield void left by Taylor Ward, who was shipped to Baltimore for Grayson Rodriguez. Tampa Bay entered the winter with a pair of Lowes, but the club will head into 2026 without either one. The versatile Lux can fill the void left by the Brandon Lowe deal. Cincinnati nets a veteran southpaw, while also getting off the $5.525MM contract Lux received in arbitration. Burke will make about half of that this season.

Lowe seemed like a fixture in Tampa Bay’s lineup after a massive 20/30 campaign in 2023. He posted a 135 wRC+ in his first season as a regular. Injuries would stifle his production the next two seasons. Oblique and hamstring issues delayed the start of his 2024 season. The oblique cost him time later that year, and then again at the beginning of this past season. He wasn’t productive when healthy this year, stumbling to a career-worst 79 wRC+ behind a .220/.283/.366 batting line. Lowe hit .139 with a 35.3% strikeout rate in his final month with the team.

With Ward gone and Mike Trout penciled in at DH, the Angels had limited options in the outfield prior to the move. Lowe will now slot in alongside Jo Adell and Jorge Soler. The Rays shielded him from lefties for much of his time there, and with good reason. Lowe has a .504 OPS and a 33% strikeout rate in his limited work against same-handed pitching (288 plate appearances). He could be ticketed for regular at-bats given the lack of a platoon partner. The right-handed bench outfielder is currently Bryce Teodosio, a glove-first option. Trout only made 22 starts in the outfield last season, but that could change considering the alternatives.

A former first-round pick, Lowe is a plus runner who has slightly above-average bat speed. The aforementioned 20-30 season hints at his physical upside, but the durability and strikeout concerns kept him from establishing himself as a cornerstone player. He has only once reached 500 plate appearances in a season.

Lowe played a little bit of center field early in his career. The vast majority of his experience has come in right, and he has only logged seven innings up the middle over the past two seasons. He’d be stretched in center defensively, yet that’s also true of Trout and Adell. The Halos will probably need to live with rough up-the-middle defense from Lowe or Adell to get a better bat than Teodosio’s in the lineup, at least until 20-year-old center field prospect Nelson Rada arrives.

Tampa Bay and Lowe settled on a $2.6MM deal to avoid arbitration this year. It was his first trip through the process. He’s controlled for three seasons and still has a minor league option remaining, so the Halos could send him down without putting him on waivers. The Angels’ estimated payroll on RosterResource still sits at about $30MM below last year’s mark.

The Reds acquired Lux last offseason in a trade with the Dodgers. He delivered league-average results at the plate in his lone season in Cincinnati, hitting .269/.350/.374 with five homers over a career-high 503 plate appearances. Lux made most of his appearances in left field, while also spending time at second base and third base. He was also used frequently as a pinch hitter.

Lux was one of Cincinnati’s more reliable on-base hitters, but he has never developed into much of a power threat. The former top prospect hasn’t hit more than 10 homers in any of his five-plus MLB seasons. Last winter’s change of scenery trade and move to Great American Ball Park didn’t really move the needle. The left-handed hitter has a solid offensive floor but probably doesn’t have much untapped upside as he enters his age-28 season.

The bigger drawback is that Lux has never settled into a clear positional home. He has moved around less because he’s an incredibly versatile and more due to his defensive struggles at various positions. His throwing accuracy has been an intermittent issue on the infield, even at second base. Defensive metrics haven’t looked favorably upon his work in the corner outfield.

The Rays had a clear gap at second base after the (first) Lowe trade. The internal choices were uninspiring, though Richie Palacios has some similarities as a left-handed hitter whose game is built around his on-base skills. Lux should step into a near-everyday role, with Tampa Bay’s typical platoon shenanigans likely capping his reps against left-handed pitching. He could also get some rotational corner outfield work, replacing Josh Lowe as a lefty bat in an outfield that remains without much certainty. Lux is a one-year addition who’ll reach free agency for the first time next winter.

The Angels claimed Burke, coincidentally a former Rays’ draftee, off waivers from the Rangers in August 2024. His one-and-a-half years with the club represented one of the better stretches of his big league career. Burke put together a 3.40 ERA across 90 appearances as an Angel. He pitched in a career-high 69 games last year. The 29-year-old is in his final year of arbitration and will hit free agency next season.

Burke was able to tap into more velocity after joining the Angels. He sat 94-95 mph after transitioning from the rotation to the bullpen with the Rangers. In L.A., Burke bumped his heater to 96 mph. He also upped his slider usage with the club. Burke had a career-high 30.5% strikeout rate with the Angels in 2024. That number fell by more than 10 points in 2025, but he counteracted it with a career-best 53.3% ground-ball rate. Burke doesn’t have huge platoon splits and isn’t a situational specialist so much as a generally steady arm whom Terry Francona can use in the middle innings.

Cincinnati relied on Taylor Rogers as its primary lefty last season, until he was sent to the Cubs at the deadline. The Reds have added Burke and Caleb Ferguson to fill the role for 2026. They also tendered a contract to the out-of-options Sam Moll, so it seems they’ll begin the season with three veteran lefties in the relief corps.

Clark was a fifth-round pick by the Angels in 2023. He posted a 4.73 ERA across 28 minor league appearances this past season. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs praised Clark’s developing changeup and loose arm action heading into the 2025 campaign. The righty uses a sinker and sweeper as his two main pitches. A changeup would fit in nicely. The 24-year-old Clark topped out at Double-A last year. He made just one start at the level and will likely be back there to open the 2026 season.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first on the trade. Respective images via Chris Tilley, Gary A. Vasquez of Imagn Images.

Red Sox To Sign Ranger Suárez

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January 15: The contract includes a mutual option for 2031, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. That doesn’t change much about the deal beyond allowing the Red Sox to kick some of the money back to the end of the 2030 season in the form of an option buyout.

January 14: The Red Sox are going to add left-hander Ranger Suárez to their already-strong rotation. It is reportedly a five-year deal worth $130MM for the Boras Corporation client. It appears to be fairly straightforward, reportedly not containing any deferrals, opt-outs or no-trade protection. The Sox have a full 40-man and will need to make a corresponding move to make this official.

The Sox came into the offseason with a rotation headlined by Garrett Crochet, followed by a notable gap to their other starters. They had a lot of options for back-end types and depth but were looking to bolster the front end.

“Because of the depth that we’ve built up over the last couple of years, we feel pretty good about just overall starting pitching, maybe No. 3-ish through No. 10-ish,” was how chief baseball officer Craig Breslow framed the situation in November. “And that’s not to take away from guys who are certainly capable of doing more, and more just to say I don’t think we’re going to spend a ton of time trying to add a No. 4, No. 5 starter.”

Since then, Breslow has made a couple of moves to alter that rotation group. He acquired Sonny Gray from the Cardinals and Johan Oviedo from the Pirates. They subtracted a bit from the depth by including Richard Fitts in the Gray deal and Hunter Dobbins in the Willson Contreras swap.

Gray is arguably the kind of #2 starter the club was looking for. His 4.28 earned run average in 2025 has some Boston fans disputing that assessment but he has a 3.63 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 44.6% ground ball rate in 531 innings dating back to the start of 2023. FanGraphs ranks him fifth in wins above replacement among pitchers in that time, behind only Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb and Cristopher Sánchez.

Since the Gray deal, Boston has seemingly been more focused on upgrading its lineup and position player mix, targeting infielders like Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Ketel Marte, Brendan Donovan and Isaac Paredes.

The club has hit a bit of a wall there. Bregman has signed with the Cubs. The Diamondbacks have reportedly taken Marte off the market. The Astros don’t seem to have much interest in moving Paredes. Bichette is still a free agent but it’s unclear if the Sox would be willing to go to the lengths necessary to sign him. Donovan should still be available but the Sox haven’t met their asking price, at least not yet.

In the wake of Bregman’s agreement with Chicago, Rob Bradford of WEEI as well as Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive suggested Boston could switch their focus to starting pitching. Earlier today, Bradford suggested the club was getting more aggressive on the trade market but the Sox have gone to free agency instead.

The contract is notable on a few fronts. For one, Breslow has generally avoided long-term free agent deals since becoming Boston’s chief baseball officer. Coming into today, his longest deal for a free agent was to give Bregman three years, which turned into a one-year relationship when Bregman opted out. The Sox came into today as the only one of the 30 major league clubs to not have signed a free agent this winter. This deal will be a new benchmark for Breslow in terms of years and guarantee given to a free agent, as well as erasing Boston’s status as the only team not to spend money on free agency this offseason.

It’s also a notable deal for Suárez in a few different ways. For one thing, he was a fairly low-profile international signing of the Phillies at the start of his professional career, securing a bonus of just $25K. As he has become a major leaguer, he has pushed his salary up in arbitration with his strong results but his lack of volume has limited him. He just made $8.8MM in his final year of arbitration, relatively modest by modern standards, but will now be securing a much bigger payday than ever before.

Speaking of his strong results but limited overall workload, that impacted the view of his market coming into this winter. Broadly speaking, Suárez has been really good on a rate basis but he doesn’t throw especially hard and has dealt with some nagging injuries, impacting the overall quantity of his contributions.

He first became a full-time starter for the Phillies in 2022 and held a rotation job for four years. Over that span, he logged 588 1/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA. His 21.9% strikeout rate was around league average. His 7.5% walk rate was solid and his 50.8% ground ball rate quite good. He also earned a reputation as a cold-blooded playoff contributor, giving the Phils 42 2/3 postseason innings with a 1.48 ERA.

But his velocity has never been huge and has been trending down. His four-seam fastball averaged a bit over 93 miles per hour in 2022 and 2023. That dropped to 91.8 mph in 2024 and 91.3 mph last year. His primary pitch, his sinker, averaged just 90.1 mph last year.

He also still hasn’t really pitched a full big league season. He hasn’t had any major injury concerns but has had scattered issues over the years, with lower back problems being a recurring thorn. Thanks to those sporadic health problems, he’s never hit the 30-start mark or the 160-inning plateau in any season as a big leaguer.

Given his clear skills but also his question marks, MLBTR predicted Suárez for a five-year, $115MM deal at the beginning of the offseason, $23MM in terms of average annual value. The top of the free agent starting pitching market has been slow to move this winter. Dylan Cease and the Blue Jays quickly found each other but it’s been a bit tepid otherwise. Prior to this, no other starter apart from Cease signed a deal longer than than three years or for more than $75MM. Tatsuya Imai settled for three years and $54MM, significantly below the expectations from the outset of the offseason.

As Suárez and Framber Valdez lingered unsigned into the new year, it was fair to wonder if they would meet the initial expectations. But with this deal, Suárez has not only met MLBTR’s prediction but has surpassed it. He has matched the length with an extra $3MM in terms of average annual value, getting to $26MM AAV.

Despite some concerns with Suárez, the move gives Boston one of the best rotations in baseball, if not the very best. Crochet is the clear ace. Suárez and Gray will have two spots behind him, followed by Brayan Bello. Oviedo seems to be in a decent position to land the #5 spot but he would also have competition from guys like Patrick Sandoval and Kutter Crawford. It’s possible Tanner Houck jumps into the mix late in the year, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in August.

Prospects Connelly Early and Payton Tolle made big league debuts late in 2025 and could push for jobs as well. Kyle Harrison, David Sandlin, Shane Drohan and Tyler Uberstine are also on the 40-man roster. Those latter six names all have options and either have limited big league experience or none at all, so they could all be sent to the minors as depth. Crawford has a decent amount of big league experience but is still optionable, so it’s possible for him to be squeezed to Worcester as well.

But it also seems fair to wonder if this Suárez deal sets the Red Sox up to trade some starting pitching for the infield upgrade they didn’t get when Bregman slipped through their fingers. They have been connected to Donovan many times and have already lined up a few trades with Chaim Bloom, Boston’s former chief baseball officer who is now president of baseball operations with the Cardinals.

Donovan isn’t the only option out there. The Sox were also connected to Marte a bunch this winter. The Diamondbacks have reportedly taken him off the market but perhaps there’s some scenario where Breslow puts some big prospect names on the table and makes them consider it. Nico Hoerner’s name has also come up in some trade rumors after the Cubs signing Bregman. If the Phillies can sign Bichette, they are expected to trade Alec Bohm or Bryson Stott to make room. Jake Cronenworth of the Padres has been in a few rumors.

All those players would have varying level of trade value due to their different salaries and years of control, but the same is also true of Boston’s pitchers. Early and Tolle are big prospects and would only be given up for a big return. Sandoval has one year left on his contract and has been injured for most of the past two years, so his trade value is far more marginal. Bello has even been in some rumors and he would be somewhere in between, as he is owed $50.5MM over the next four years and has been more okay than great.

Since it feels likely that at least one more significant move is coming, the club’s financial picture is probably still in flux. For now, RosterResource pegs the club’s payroll at $216MM with a competitive balance tax calculation of $266MM. That’s assuming the Suárez deal is broken down evenly at $26MM per year, as the actual breakdown hasn’t been publicly reported yet. If it’s front-loaded or back-loaded, that could alter the actual payroll. However, the CBT is calculated based on a player’s AAV, so that won’t change.

The Sox avoided the tax in 2023 and 2024. They went narrowly over the line in 2025, paying a tax bill of just $1.5MM. That will make them second-time payors in 2026, giving them a base tax rate of 30% for going over the first threshold of $244MM. The second threshold is $264MM and the Sox would pay a 42% on further spending above that line. If they go beyond $284MM, the tax rate would jump to 75% for spending above that line and their top pick in the 2027 draft would be dropped by ten spots.

Speaking of the draft, the Sox are going to be impacted by this Suárez signing in 2026. Suárez rejected a qualifying offer from the Phillies, meaning the Sox are subject to the associated penalties for signing him. Since the Sox paid the tax last year, they have to forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks this summer, in addition to losing $1MM in international bonus pool space. The Phillies will receive a compensation pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft.

Prior to this deal with the Red Sox, Suárez was connected to the Orioles, Astros and Mets, though other clubs presumably had interest even if they weren’t connected to him in public reports. For the teams who missed out on Suárez, there are still some options they can turn to, despite the relatively late stage of the offseason.

Valdez and Zac Gallen are the top two free agents, with Chris Bassitt, Justin Verlander, Lucas Giolito and others still unsigned. The trade market still has some potential options, including MacKenzie Gore and Freddy Peralta. Valdez has to be pleased with Suárez getting a deal beyond expectations even at this part of the calendar. They are fairly similar pitchers as groundballers. Valdez is a bit older but has the more impressive track record overall.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post. first reported that the Sox would be signing Suárez. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the length and guarantee, as well as the lack of deferrals and opt-outs. Chris Cotillo of MassLive first reported the lack of a no-trade clause. Photos courtesy of Bill Streicher, Brad Penner, Imagn Images

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