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MLBTR Podcast: The Tigers’ Rotation, A Brewers-Red Sox Trade, And Late Free-Agent Signings

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

  • Twins Front Office Shake-Up, The Brendan Donovan Trade, Eugenio Suarez, And More! – listen here
  • Examining MLB’s Parity Situation – Also, Bellinger, Peralta, Robert, And Gore – listen here
  • What The Tucker And Bichette Contracts Mean For Baseball – Also, Nolan Arenado And Ranger Suarez – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Junfu Han, Imagn Images

The Opener: MLBPA, Free Agents, Braves

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. MLBPA to regroup following Tony Clark’s departure:

Yesterday, the baseball world was rocked when MLBPA chief Tony Clark abruptly resigned from his position atop the union amid a scandal involving an “inappropriate relationship” with his sister-in-law, whom he hired to work for the union back in 2023. Clark’s departure comes less than a year before the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement on Dec. 1. Rather than go through a lengthy search for a new executive director, there have been indications that the players will look to find a temporary replacement in the short-term. Deputy director Bruce Meyer is the most likely candidate, and reporting has suggested there could be a vote on promoting him to interim director as soon as today.

2. Lingering free agents on the market:

As Spring Training gets fully underway, a swath of veterans have begun to take minor league deals in order to get into camp and get to work with a club in hopes of securing a roster spot coming into Opening Day. Right-hander Walker Buehler, outfielder Mike Tauchman, and first baseman Nathaniel Lowe are among the more notable players to sign minor league pacts in the past week. It’s fair to wonder which other veterans might be working on similar deals over the next few days. Of course, not every player left in free agency will settle for a minor league pact. Lucas Giolito, Zack Littell, and Max Scherzer are among the players likely to hold out for big league offers even as Spring Training gets into full swing.

3. Will the Braves do anything with their rotation?

It’s long been assumed that the Braves would make an addition to their rotation this offseason, and that seemingly became all the more likely when Atlanta lost Spencer Schwellenbach for the foreseeable future due to bone spurs in his elbow. Right-hander Hurston Waldrep, meanwhile, is dealing with elbow concerns of his own.

Despite that uncertainty, recent reporting has indicated that the club’s interest in players they’ve been connected to like Giolito and Chris Bassitt has been overstated. (Bassitt, of course, already signed with the Orioles.) Perhaps a team deep in starting pitching (e.g. Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers) would be willing to give up one of the arms lower on their depth chart to fill out Atlanta’s rotation at the right price, but could the Braves simply stand pat?

Tony Clark Steps Down As MLBPA Executive Director

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The Major League Baseball Players Association officially announced that executive director Tony Clark has resigned. Clark did not provide a statement in the press release. He had held the role since 2013.

According to multiple reports, Clark resigned after an internal investigation revealed he had an “inappropriate” relationship with his sister-in-law, who was hired to work for the player’s union back in 2023. Evan Drellich, Ken Rosenthal and Andy McCullough of The Athletic and Jeff Passan and Don Van Natta Jr. of ESPN each suggest that deputy director Bruce Meyer is most likely choice to take over. The Athletic notes that Meyer recently helped Tarik Skubal in his arbitration case where he defeated the Tigers and has been working the phones today to firm up his support among the players.

The union met this afternoon but did not vote on the matter. Chris Bassitt, a member of the eight-player executive subcommittee, told The Athletic they didn’t want to rush and wanted to take time to update the union’s 1200 members. Bassitt suggested everything would be wrapped up in 24 hours or so, with a vote on Meyer reportedly expected tomorrow. Angels lefty Brent Suter, another member of the subcommittee, told The Athletic’s Sam Blum that the union had an interim director in mind and was not planning to commence an external search at this time. “We’re going to have an interim [director] and keep everything as stable as we can this year,” says Suter.

The 53-year-old Clark and the union had been under investigation since last summer due to purported improprieties regarding the usage of licensing money. Specifically, Clark has previously been alleged to have given himself equity in OneTeam Partners — a joint venture between the MLBPA and NFLPA — and failed to have sufficiently disclosed the level of resources being dedicated to Players Way, an MLBPA-owned youth baseball initiative that is under federal investigation. The union hired a law firm to conduct an internal investigation in response to those allegations. That internal probe reportedly uncovered messages between Clark and his sister-in-law, which led the union to seek his resignation.

Clark had been scheduled to begin a tour of spring visits to the game’s 30 teams just this morning, but the first of those meetings (with the Guardians) was abruptly canceled. The timing of the move is of particular note. Major League Baseball’s current collective bargaining agreement expires in just over nine months. The last wave of collective bargaining talks between the Clark-led union and the Rob Manfred-led league/owners collective was contentious enough to result in a 99-day offseason lockout and transaction freeze.

An even more vitriolic battle is expected by many this time around, with several owners publicly digging in their heels regarding their belief that the sport needs to adopt a salary cap. Any sort of cap — even if accompanied by a salary floor — has been a nonstarter for every previous iteration of the players association; Clark has made no secret of his adamant anti-cap stance at virtually every given opportunity, and Meyer has been in lockstep with that mentality as the union’s lead negotiator and No. 2 executive.

Evan Drellich, Ken Rosenthal and Andy McCullough of The Athletic first reported that Clark was resigning. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the “inappropriate relationship.”

Dodgers Notes: Second Base, Edman, Hernández

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One camp battle opened for the Dodgers this week. Manager Dave Roberts confirmed that Tommy Edman would begin the season on the injured list as he works back from right ankle surgery. That leaves the season-opening second base job up for grabs among a handful of players.

As Jack Harris of The California Post writes, that could be most meaningful for Hyeseong Kim and Alex Freeland. Kim played in 71 games as an MLB rookie, hitting .280/.314/.385 but striking out in more than 30% of his plate appearances. He had an overaggressive approach and rarely hit the ball hard. Kim’s profile in the KBO was built around his speed and middle infield defense, and his early MLB results align with that.

The 24-year-old Freeland is one of the organization’s better position player prospects. He struggled in a 29-game debut, batting .190 while punching out 35 times across 97 trips to the plate. Freeland had a strong year with Triple-A Oklahoma City, though, hitting .263/.384/.451 with 16 home runs and 18 stolen bases. He walked at a huge 16.3% clip while striking out 22% of the time in the minors.

Kim is a left-handed bat, while Freeland is a switch-hitter who was much better from the left side last season. Either could work in a second base platoon with righty-swinging Miguel Rojas, who projects as their top utility infielder. Kim has the leg up from a versatility perspective, as his plus speed also allows him to back up Andy Pages in center field. Freeland can move around the infield but isn’t a burner and has no professional outfield experience. Both players have minor league options remaining and could be sent to OKC without going on waivers. That’d be more plausible if a non-roster invitee like Santiago Espinal or Ryan Fitzgerald plays their way into a bench job with a strong spring.

Edman’s injury also subtracts from the early-season outfield depth. He’d have been in line for a decent amount of center field work if he were at full strength. Kim could play that role instead, particularly late in games for defensive purposes. That’d occasionally allow Pages to slide to left field, where Teoscar Hernández will pick up the majority of the playing time. Hernández is changing corners after the Kyle Tucker signing.

It wasn’t a lock that the two-time All-Star would remain on the roster all winter. Hernández came up in some trade rumors, with the Royals among the teams known to have interest. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman acknowledged that the front office took calls on his availability but downplayed their desire to trade him at any point (link via Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic).

“Teams call and ask about different guys all the time,” Friedman said. “Some that get out there, some that don’t. But we very much value clubhouse chemistry. It’s not something that we would be willy-nilly about. I don’t blame teams for asking. … But obviously it’s not lost on us the importance he has, not just on the field but in the clubhouse as well.”

There’s no indication that any talks have carried into Spring Training. Hernández remains a potent power threat coming off a 25-homer season, but the rest of his production dropped. He hit .247 with a career-worst .284 on-base percentage across 546 plate appearances. Hernández also had a second straight tough year defensively. The 33-year-old said today that he never felt at full strength after a mid-May left groin strain.

That only required a two-week injured list stint but certainly could have impacted his mobility after he returned. That said, Hernández has never been a great defender and is unlikely to improve much in his mid-30s. He’s not an ideal roster fit on a team that can’t offer playing time at designated hitter, but he’s signed for another two years and $33MM (including an option buyout for 2028). Even with the majority of those salaries deferred, that’s more than he would have landed as a free agent this offseason. The Dodgers have no need to force a salary dump and were unlikely to get much of value in a trade return.

D-Backs Notes: Del Castillo, Thomas, Rotation

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The Diamondbacks are expected to begin the year without catcher/first baseman Adrian Del Castillo. Manager Torey Lovullo said Monday that the 26-year-old is dealing with a left calf injury that’ll keep him out of game action for the bulk of Spring Training (link via Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports). He’ll be reassessed closer to Opening Day but it seems unlikely he’ll get enough exhibition reps to avoid a season-opening injured list stay.

Del Castillo is third on the catching depth chart after Gabriel Moreno and James McCann. He nevertheless had a strong chance to win a bench job if healthy. Tyler Locklear will begin the season on the IL as he rehabs elbow and shoulder surgeries. The lefty-hitting Del Castillo has a fair bit of first base and designated hitter experience. Arizona doesn’t have a ton of position player depth on the 40-man roster, leaving a couple bench jobs up for grabs.

After an encouraging 25-game debut two years ago, Del Castillo struggled last season. He struck out 47 times in 131 plate appearances (a near-36% rate) while hitting .242/.290/.392 over 44 games. The Miami product has posted strong numbers throughout his minor league career, but they’ve always come with a concerning level of swing-and-miss. He’s a below-average defensive catcher, putting more pressure on the bat if most of his work comes in the first base/DH mix.

Pavin Smith and Carlos Santana are projected for a first base platoon. They’ll also get a decent number of DH reps, while Lovullo said Ketel Marte will log some time there in addition to his primary second base work. The D-Backs are reportedly poking around the trade market for a utility piece after they dealt Blaze Alexander to Baltimore for reliever Kade Strowd and a pair of minor leaguers. They’ll ideally find someone with more offensive punch than Tim Tawa and non-roster invitees Ildemaro Vargas and Jacob Amaya to play that role.

The bottom half of the lineup would be an even bigger concern if Corbin Carroll opens the season on the IL. Arizona’s star right fielder will miss most of Spring Training following last week’s hamate surgery. The hope is for Carroll to make it back by the beginning of the regular season. Fellow outfielder Alek Thomas tells Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic that he’s working mostly between left and center field with the expectation that Carroll will be in his typical position on Opening Day.

Thomas has played all three outfield positions in the minor leagues. He has played exclusively center field as a big leaguer, logging more than 3000 innings up the middle. Thomas is a quality defender who shouldn’t have any issue adjusting to a corner if the D-Backs need him to move around. Arizona is trying to get Jordan Lawlar acclimated to playing center field.

Lawlar has a higher offensive ceiling than Thomas has shown over 420 MLB contests, so the latter would be best suited for a fourth outfield role if everyone’s healthy. They’ll probably need both players in the starting lineup to begin the season, as Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will also open the year on the injured list after last summer’s ACL injury. Thomas could be a stopgap left fielder until Gurriel returns and/or prospect Ryan Waldschmidt plays his way to the big leagues.

There’s a fair bit of opportunity in one of the more top-heavy lineups in MLB. Carroll, Marte, Moreno and Geraldo Perdomo make for an excellent top half of a batting order. Nolan Arenado is on the downside of his career but should still be a solid everyday third baseman. The bottom third of the lineup and most of the bench is a lot less established.

It’s not quite as extreme on the pitching side, but there are some parallels. Free agent returnees Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen are locked into the rotation; Lovullo has already named Kelly his Opening Day starter. Ryne Nelson figures to have a mid-rotation spot secure, but the Diamondbacks aren’t making any firm commitments beyond that.

“I can’t even really make comments about any projections or what the starting rotation is going to look like,” Lovullo told reporters (including Steve Gilbert of MLB.com). Right now, it looks as if Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt and Michael Soroka are battling for two spots. Rodriguez and Soroka will be on the MLB roster, but Pfaadt has a pair of minor league options and could open the season in Triple-A. Soroka has the most experience of that group in a swing role and would be the most familiar with pitching in long relief if the D-Backs want all six pitchers on the active roster with a five-man rotation. One injury might take the decision out of Lovullo’s hands, but it’s another camp battle that Arizona fans will want to follow during exhibition play.

Junior Caminero Open To Extension Talks With Rays

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If the Rays are to compete for an AL East crown this year, it’ll probably be behind another huge year from Junior Caminero. The 22-year-old cemented himself as the face of the franchise with a 45-homer season in which he hit .264/.311/.535 across 653 plate appearances. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued him between four and five wins above replacement, the highest on the team.

That was Caminero’s first full season at the MLB level. He debuted at the tail end of 2023 but was optioned to Triple-A for the first few months of the ’24 season. He’s two years away from arbitration and under club control through 2030. Caminero tells Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times he’d be interested in exploring a long-term extension, though it doesn’t appear the team has opened those conversations yet.

“I’d like to (discuss it), but this is not my decision,” the young star said. “I feel this is my city, Tampa. I love Tampa, but this is not my decision. I’ll control what I control — just go play, have fun.” Caminero’s agent, Rafa Nieves of Republik Sports, said last August that the team hadn’t broached an extension. Nieves noted that the organization probably wasn’t in position to make the kind of commitment it would entail. They were midway through an ownership sale and had seen their long-term stadium plans fall through. “Honestly, by the time they’re out of those question marks, it might be too late,” Nieves said at the time.

The Rays have completed their ownership transfer in the intervening months. The Patrick Zalupski group officially purchased the franchise in late September. The stadium situation is an ongoing question, however. The team is targeting the Hillsborough College campus as the site for a mixed-use development project that would reportedly come with an estimated $2.3 billion price.

The team hasn’t announced anything publicly, but recent reporting from The Tampa Bay Times indicated they’re hoping for public funding to cover roughly half that amount. They’re still very early in the process and have no guarantees on the public funding front, which naturally raises questions about whether they want to make a significant long-term investment.

(They also still haven’t gotten an official ruling on whether they’ll be able to void the remaining $164MM in guarantees on the Wander Franco contract. Franco is not being paid while he’s on the restricted list pending resolution of a second trial after he was convicted of sexual abuse of a minor in the Dominican Republic last June.)

Nieves suggested last summer that he could look for a guarantee in the $150-200MM range if they worked on an extension. That’d be a little above the $130-135MM area in which Jackson Merrill and Roman Anthony have landed. Caminero is a year closer to free agency than Anthony was. He put up bigger power numbers than Merrill did but was similarly valuable overall in their respective first seasons. Merrill acknowledged at the time he signed his deal that he was likely leaving some money on the table to stay in San Diego.

The track record for top position player prospects who are this productive in their early 20s is excellent. There’s a strong chance that Caminero is a franchise cornerstone. If the Rays have any reservations about valuing him at that level, it’d probably be related to his home/road splits. Caminero was dramatically more productive at their temporary home of George M. Steinbrenner Field (.313/.358/.595) than he was on the road (.218/.266/.477). In all likelihood, that’s a product of an unsustainably low .197 BABIP in road games rather than an indication that he was a huge beneficiary of the minor league home park. The Rays are moving back to Tropicana Field for the 2026-28 seasons.

Latest On Braves’ Rotation

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The Braves’ rotation has been a talking point in the early days of spring training, with a few injuries already popping up, leading to speculation about the club looking for an external addition. Atlanta has been connected to pitchers like Lucas Giolito and Chris Bassitt this offseason but Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that the club’s interest in those two pitchers was overstated. Burns says they did not seriously pursue Bassitt before he signed with the Orioles and have not been involved with Giolito, who remains a free agent.

It’s a curious spot for the club to be in. Injuries to the starting rotation played a huge role in tanking the 2025 season. They went into the campaign as contenders but ended up at 76-86. Just about every starter got hurt, so that the only guy to surpass 126 innings was Bryce Elder, who posted a 5.30 earned run average.

Going into the winter, general manager Alex Anthopoulos said that bolstering the rotation would be a “point of emphasis” but he hasn’t made any significant changes there. He clearly had some money to spend but has invested it elsewhere, having signed outfielder Mike Yastrzemski, infielder Ha-Seong Kim, as well as relievers Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias to eight-figure deals.

That left the rotation looking vulnerable coming into camp and the picture has only gotten worse since then. Spencer Schwellenbach was placed on the 60-day injured list last week due to elbow inflammation. Hurston Waldrep is now getting checked out due to his own elbow soreness.

The rotation still has some upside, in theory, but with question marks everywhere. Chris Sale is the ace but he’s about to turn 37 years old and has been very injury prone in recent years. Spencer Strider missed most of 2024 due to elbow surgery and had lackluster results when he was back on the mound last year. Reynaldo López only made one start last year due to shoulder surgery. Grant Holmes was diagnosed with a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament last year and is currently trying to return while avoiding surgery.

That group could be a strong front four if everyone is healthy and pitching well but that’s a massive if. The depth beyond that group is also questionable. Martín Pérez and Carlos Carrasco are in the organization on minor league deals but neither inspires a ton of confidence. Didier Fuentes is a notable prospect but he’s only 20 years old and got shelled when called up in emergency fashion last year. Jhancarlos Lara and José Suarez are on the roster but seem to be depth/swing types. JR Ritchie is another of the club’s top prospects but he has only 11 Triple-A starts under his belt.

There’s an argument for adding a reliable veteran to strengthen the back of the rotation, even if it doesn’t raise the ceiling much, but Anthopoulos recently said the club is looking for a playoff-caliber starter. Up until fairly recently, the starting pitching market still had a lot of attractive names on it but Atlanta has not pounced on that opportunity. Guys like Bassitt, Zac Gallen, Nick Martinez, Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Chris Paddack, José Urquidy, Tomoyuki Sugano, Aaron Civale, Miles Mikolas, Erick Fedde, Griffin Canning and Germán Márquez have agreed to modest one-year deals in the past week or so.

Perhaps the club will still pivot to add some reliable innings. If they don’t like Giolito, the market still features Zack Littell, Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, Tyler Anderson, Marcus Stroman and others.

It’s also possible the club is out of dry powder. RosterResource projects them for a $264MM payroll and $260MM competitive balance tax number. That payroll is about $50MM above where they finished last year and the CBT number puts them within $4MM of the second tier of the tax, which they may not want to cross.

If it’s the case that there’s no spending capacity left, it looks like a strange offseason for the club. They invested in several areas of the roster but didn’t target the area that was supposed to be a primary focus. Perhaps Anthopoulos can line up a trade of a young pitcher who is cheap and controllable, but the price on such pitchers will be high. Maybe they’ll get lucky and their guys will stay healthier than last year but the injury bug is already biting before spring games have even begun.

Photo courtesy of James A. Pittman, Imagn Images

Padres, Walker Buehler Agree To Minor League Deal

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February 17th: According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Buehler will make $1.5MM if added to the roster and could also access performance bonuses worth $2.5MM on the deal.

February 16th: The Padres are adding Walker Buehler on a minor league contract, reports Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. The Excel Sports Management client will aim to win a rotation job during Spring Training.

San Diego continues to stockpile potential back-end starters. The Padres agreed to big league deals with Griffin Canning and Germán Márquez over the weekend. Buehler settles for a non-roster invitation, which seemingly puts him behind the other two veteran righties as camp gets underway. Canning is coming back from a June Achilles tear. He might begin the season on the injured list but should be in the rotation once he’s healthy.

The Friars have three locks for the Opening Day rotation: Nick Pivetta, Michael King and Joe Musgrove. First-year skipper Craig Stammen implied last week that righty Randy Vásquez has a leg up on the fourth starter role after a solid finish last year. Márquez, Canning (if healthy) and JP Sears are the top options on the 40-man roster for the fifth starter job. Matt Waldron also remains on the 40-man but is out of options and coming off a rough season in Triple-A. Buehler joins Triston McKenzie and Marco Gonzales among the non-roster invitees.

A two-time All-Star, Buehler was a borderline ace for most of his time with the Dodgers. He hasn’t been the same since undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career in 2022. The surgery cost him the entire ’23 season, and he returned with a 5.38 ERA across 16 regular season starts the following year. Buehler pitched well in the postseason and wound up closing out the 2024 World Series. The Red Sox bet that was the beginning of a return to form, but his $21.05MM free agent deal with Boston was a disappointment.

Buehler was rocked for a 5.45 ERA across 23 appearances with the Red Sox. They flirted with a move to the bullpen before pulling the plug altogether, releasing him at the end of August. Buehler latched on with the Phillies and made three appearances to close the regular season. While he tossed 13 2/3 innings of one-run ball in Philadelphia, he only struck out eight of 57 batters faced (14%).

Opponents destroyed his four-seam fastball, hitting .277 with a .553 slugging percentage against the pitch. Buehler’s 94 mph average velocity was down a tick from the previous season and almost three miles per hour below where it had been between 2019-20. The spin rates on his four-seam fastball and knuckle-curve have dropped precipitously since his peak. He has had a much more difficult time missing bats, both within and outside the strike zone. Hitters have done a better job laying off stuff outside the zone, leading to a career-high 10.8% walk rate last season.

Although the trend lines aren’t encouraging, Buehler is only 31 and still has league average velocity. The Padres aren’t committed to a roster spot or a guaranteed salary, so there’s no harm in gauging his form during Spring Training. It should be mostly an open competition for at least one rotation spot.

Buehler might not begin the season in Triple-A if he doesn’t win the job. He was an Article XX(b) free agent — a player with six years of service time who finished last season on an MLB roster. Those players who sign minor league deals at least 10 days before Opening Day have a trio of opt-out dates under the collective bargaining agreement: five days before Opening Day, May 1, and June 1. Buehler can trigger an out clause and explore other opportunities during the final week of Spring Training if the Padres don’t commit to carrying him on the active roster.

Padres Sign Germán Márquez

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February 17th: According to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Marquez gets a $1MM salary followed by a $750K buyout on the mutual option. Marquez will also have the chance to unlock an extra $3.25MM in performance bonuses.

February 16th: The Padres announced Monday that they’ve signed right-hander Germán Márquez to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2027. The L.A. Sports Management client is reportedly guaranteed $1.75MM. San Diego placed righty Jhony Brito, who underwent internal brace surgery last May, on the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

The team was known to be looking for low-cost rotation pieces and a complementary bat, per comments from president of baseball operations A.J. Preller a few days ago. They achieved the latter by bringing in Nick Castellanos on a one-year deal upon his release from the Phillies. Now, they’ve addressed the rotation side through one-year-deals for Márquez and fellow right-hander Griffin Canning. Canning is coming off an Achilles injury and projects as a back-end starter once he is healthy enough to return. Márquez figures to serve as back-of-the-rotation depth as well.

The 30-year-old (31 later this month) is coming off a ten-year major-league run with the Rockies. After a brief debut in 2016, he settled in as one of the team’s most reliable starters from 2017-21. In that span, he totaled 793 2/3 innings over 135 starts and posted a 4.25 ERA, a 24.0% strikeout rate, and a 6.9% walk rate. Márquez excelled through a combination of control and strong groundball tendencies. He was worth 15.5 fWAR in those five years and continually posted groundball rates in the mid-40s and low-50s, including a career-high 51.6% in 180 innings in 2021.

His performance began to wane from 2022 onward. He still made 31 starts in 2022, but his strikeout rate fell below 20% for the first time since his 20 2/3-inning sample in 2016. His run prevention slipped as well, with Márquez posting a below-average 4.95 ERA and elevated peripheral stats. He then underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023, costing him the rest of that year and the first few months of 2024. His return in July 2024 only lasted one start, and he spent the rest of the season on the injured list with elbow inflammation, although his UCL was reportedly fine.

In 2025, Márquez pitched 126 1/3 innings over 26 starts but was clearly working with diminished stuff. His four-seamer was down to 94.8 MPH after averaging 95.6 MPH in his most recent healthy season in 2022. His sinker, which used over 20% of the time, also slipped from 95.1 MPH to 94.3 MPH. Statcast graded his fastballs in just the first percentile by run value, while his knuckle curve, formerly his best pitch, also earned career-worst grades. The strikeouts dried up even further, with Márquez’s 14.0% strikeout rate ranking third-worst among starters with at least 100 innings. The Rockies decided to move on as Márquez reached free agency.

Perhaps a change of scenery will help Márquez recover some of his strikeout and groundball tendencies as he moves further from injury. He’ll get that chance with the Padres, who now have a decent amount of rotation depth. The team saw Dylan Cease depart for the Blue Jays but re-signed Michael King on a three-year deal in December. Yu Darvish will miss 2026 while recovering from an internal brace procedure, and he is reportedly contemplating retirement. Joe Musgrove is returning from Tommy John surgery and will be guaranteed a spot if healthy. That leaves King, Nick Pivetta, and Musgrove in the top three spots, with some combination of Márquez, Canning (when healthy), Randy Vásquez, and JP Sears taking the last two spots.

Each of King, Musgrove, Márquez and Canning comes with injury risk, though the Padres always seemed likelier to stockpile depth than bring a big-name starter at this stage in the offseason. Zac Gallen was the last impact starter in free agency before re-signing with the Diamondbacks. Either way, his $18.7MM luxury tax number might have been too much given the team’s reported payroll constraints. Low-cost signings like Canning and Márquez seem easier to accommodate, barring a potential buyout agreement for Darvish.

RosterResource has the team at a $264.7MM luxury tax payroll for 2026, putting them in the second tier of penalization. The Padres paid the luxury tax in 2025 and would count as second-time payors in 2026. Thus, any money guaranteed to Canning and Márquez would come with an additional 42% surcharge.

Alden González of ESPN first reported the Padres were signing Márquez to a one-year deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the mutual option. The Associated Press reported the $1.75MM guarantee. Photo courtesy of Kelley Cox, Imagn Images

Padres Sign Griffin Canning

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February 17th: The Padres made it official today, announcing that they have signed Canning to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2027. Mutual options are almost never picked up by both sides, so that provision just allows the Padres to kick part of the payment into the future in the form of a buyout. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Canning is guaranteed $2.5MM in the form of a $1MM salary and $1.5MM buyout on that option, with another $1.5MM available via performance bonuses. Outfielder Tirso Ornelas has been designated for assignment as the corresponding move for Canning.

February 14th: The Padres have signed right-hander Griffin Canning, as initially reported overnight by the Divine Sports Gospel.  Canning’s deal will be official once he passes a physical, according to FanSided’s Robert Murray.  San Diego has a full 40-man roster in the wake of the Nick Castellanos signing, so the Padres will have to make another move to open up 40-man space for Canning, who is represented by Wasserman.

It’s something of a SoCal homecoming for Canning, who was born in Mission Viejo and played his college ball at UCLA.  The 29-year-old also spent his first first Major League seasons with the Angels, posting a 4.78 ERA over 508 innings (starting 94 of 99 games).  This was less than was expected of a pitcher who was once viewed as a top-100 prospect, and the Angels parted ways with Canning via a trade with the Braves last offseason for Jorge Soler.  Atlanta then chose to non-tender Canning, since the Braves’ chief goal of the trade was to unload Soler’s contract.

Canning then signed a one-year, $4.25MM contract with the Mets that initially looked like it was going to be a steal, as the righty posted a 2.47 ERA over his first nine starts in New York.  Some struggles over his next seven outings boosted his ERA to 3.77, yet that’s unfortunately where Canning’s story ended, as he suffered a season-ending ruptured Achilles tendon in late June.

Reports from earlier this offseason suggested that Canning is hoping to be ready for Opening Day, or at least relatively early in April.  He was feeling good enough to throw for scouts in a showcase last week, and his velocity was up to 93mph even at this relatively early stage in the preseason ramp-up process.  The Mets, Cardinals, and White Sox were all linked to Canning earlier this winter, but he’ll now be part of San Diego’s rotation mix.

The Padres’ starting pitching situation has been a key issue for the team all winter, as Dylan Cease left for the Blue Jays in free agency and Yu Darvish will miss all of 2026 while recovering from an internal brace procedure.  Re-signing Michael King helped the Padres restore some stability, and Canning joins a list of arms that consists of King, Nick Pivetta, Randy Vasquez, JP Sears, and Joe Musgrove in his return from Tommy John surgery.  Assuming everyone is healthy, Canning will probably push Vasquez or Sears into a relief or depth role once Canning is ready to pitch.

While 76 1/3 innings isn’t the largest of sample sizes, Canning’s 2025 season saw him post a 50.9% grounder rate, in a marked change for a pitcher who had only a 39.5% groundball rate during his time in Anaheim.  Keeping the ball out of the air helped somewhat counter-act all of the hard contact Canning was allowing, as his 45.7% hard-hit ball rate was only in the 11th percentile of all pitchers.  Canning’s 10.7% walk rate was the highest of his career, and his 21.3% strikeout rate was nothing special.

Pivetta’s breakout in 2025 is evidence that the Padres can help pitchers unlock their potential, but for now, Canning projects as a back-end starter with some upside.  How Canning responds to his Achilles injury is another x-factor, and his health history also includes a stress fracture in his back that cost him the entire 2022 season.

Terms of Canning’s deal aren’t yet known, though it is fair to assume he’ll earn something close to the $4.5MM he received from New York in 2025.  The price tag was surely attractive to the Padres, who have been operating within a seemingly limited budget this offseason.  Not counting Canning’s deal, San Diego is projected (by RosterResource) for roughly a $220.9MM payroll and a $265.48MM luxury tax number — both are slightly up from 2025, when the Padres had a $211.1MM payroll in 2025 and a $263MM tax number.  The addition of Canning’s contract now puts San Diego over the second tier ($264MM) of tax penalization.

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