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Poll: Can The Guardians Push Their Way Into The Postseason?

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A lot has changed in the AL Wild Card scene in the two weeks since MLBTR’s last poll about the race. At the time, there were three clubs within two games of catching the Mariners for the final Wild Card spot, and aside from an outside chance of Houston losing the AL West the rest of the playoff field looked more or less set.

Now, the Mariners have surged ahead of the pack to run down the Astros in the West, while the Red Sox have slumped badly to the point where their ticket getting punched is no longer a foregone conclusion. The Rays (nine games back of a Wild Card spot), Royals (seven games back) and even the Rangers (4.5 games back) are all extreme long shots, meaning that if anyone is going to shake up the AL playoff field, it will be a team that wasn’t even included in our poll from two weeks ago: the Cleveland Guardians.

Cleveland has won 11 of its last 12 games, and the 80-71 Guards now sit 2.5 games back of Boston for the final Wild Card spot. Starters Gavin Williams, Parker Messick, and Joey Cantillo have all been excellent since the All-Star break, while Kyle Manzardo and Jose Ramirez have carried the offense. The fabled bullpen that pushed Cleveland into the postseason last year has shown up again this season (even without Emmanuel Clase), and that unit has done a lot of the heavy lifting for the Guardians with the lowest FIP and second-lowest ERA in baseball since the start of August.

What makes the Guardians most interesting as a possible late entrant into the postseason picture, however, is that they actually control their own destiny in the AL Central as well. The division has looked more or less locked up for the Tigers all year long, but a 5-9 record so far in September alongside Cleveland’s surge has left them vulnerable with four games (including one today) left on the schedule between the two clubs.

With two avenues to a playoff spot on the table, the Guardians are arguably the most interesting team to watch over the final few days of the regular season. The playoff odds at FanGraphs are skeptical, giving Cleveland a 16.4% chance to make the postseason this year entering play today. That’s actually the best odds of any team not currently in playoff position, but it still highlights the tough road the Guardians will have to hoe if they’re going to play in October.

That said, Cleveland does have one thing in its favor: the schedule. The Guardians benefit from four games against the lowly Twins, who have been one of the worst teams in baseball since their massive sell-off at the trade deadline. Cleveland also has a remaining series against an injury-ravaged Rangers team to wrap up the 2025 campaign. Meanwhile, the Tigers and Red Sox actually face each other in the final series of the regular season. If the Guardians can just remain in spitting distance of both teams until then, they’ll have an opportunity to make up a game or two in the standings over that final weekend.

What do MLBTR readers think? Will the Guardians be able to pull it off and shake up the playoff field? Or will they be left on the outside looking in this October? Have your say in the poll below:

D-backs Select Philip Abner

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The Diamondbacks announced Thursday that they’ve selected the contract of left-hander Philip Abner from Triple-A Reno. Whenever he makes his first appearance out of the bullpen, the 2023 sixth-rounder out of Florida will be making his MLB debut. Arizona optioned fellow lefty Kyle Backhus to Reno in order to clear an active roster spot. Arizona’s 40-man roster is now at capacity.

Abner, 23, has breezed through three minor league levels this season. He opened the year in High-A and has since climbed to Double-A and Triple-A, posting strong numbers at each stop. The end result is a 3.07 earned run average in 58 2/3 innings of bullpen work. He’s strictly a reliever, with his only two professional “starts” coming for Arizona’s Complex League affiliate last summer, with neither lasting more than an inning. He started just one game in his NCAA career with the Florida Gators.

Abner has fanned 29.8% of his opponents in the minors this season and limited walks at a sharp 6.8% clip. His 40.1% ground-ball rate is only a couple points below league-average, and he’s done a fine job keeping the ball in the yard, yielding an average of 0.77 homers per nine frames across those three levels. He doesn’t throw hard, sitting just 90.7 mph on his four-seamer, but Abner has still recorded a hearty 13.7% swinging-strike rate across his three minor league stops in 2025. He complements his heater with a slider that sits 80 mph.

Although he doesn’t rank among the organization’s top-30 prospects at any of Baseball America, MLB.com or FanGraphs, Abner turned in a strong performance that’s difficult to ignore. The Snakes didn’t need to add him to the 40-man roster, as he wouldn’t have been eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft until the 2026-27 offseason, but his strong numbers merit a big league look and now have him in the mix for a potential bullpen spot next year. He’ll very likely head into 2026 on the 40-man roster and with a full slate of minor league options, and D-backs brass can use the final couple weeks of the current season to get a look at him against MLB opponents.

Tigers Activate Paul Sewald, Release Codi Heuer

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The Tigers have activated reliever Paul Sewald from the 60-day injured list and opened a spot on the 40-man roster by releasing fellow right-hander Codi Heuer, who’d been pitching in Triple-A Toledo. Veteran right-hander Jose Urquidy, who has more than five years of major league service time, has consented to be optioned to Toledo, thereby clearing a spot on the roster for Sewald and keeping Urquidy in the organization.

Sewald, 35, was a July acquisition from the same Guardians club he’ll now potentially face in today’s series finale. He was on the IL due to a shoulder strain at the time of the swap and has yet to make his Tigers debut, though he’s pitched well in 4 2/3 rehab innings (one run allowed). He also missed considerable time with Cleveland prior to the trade. The veteran closer has pitched just 15 1/3 innings in the majors this year and sports a 4.70 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate in that time.

The Guards signed Sewald to a one-year, $7MM contract over the winter. That guarantee took the form of a $5MM salary, a $1MM signing bonus and a $1MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option. The mutual nature of that option makes Sewald a pure rental; it’s been more than a decade since a mutual option was exercised by both parties anywhere in Major League Baseball.

Though Sewald has scarcely pitched in 2025, he brings a notable track record to manager A.J. Hinch’s bullpen. The right-hander had a nondescript four-year run with the Mets from 2017-20 before emerging from obscurity in Seattle, where he broke out as a high-end reliever. From 2021-23, Sewald pitched 189 1/3 innings between the Mariners and D-backs (who acquired him at the ’23 deadline) and logged a combined 2.95 ERA with 65 saves, 24 holds, a massive 33.9% strikeout rate and a solid 8.6% walk rate.

Oblique and neck injuries limited Sewald to just 39 2/3 innings with Arizona last year. He was reasonably effective, logging a 4.31 earned run average, but wasn’t close to his prior excellent form. Sewald has never been a hard thrower, but his already pedestrian velocity has dipped considerably since that 2021-23 peak. The right-hander averaged 92.3 mph on his four-seamer in that span but was sitting just 91.4 mph last year and 90.3 mph in this year’s limited sample with the Guardians. He posted a matching 90.3 mph average in his Triple-A rehab work with Detroit’s affiliate in Toledo.

Sewald joins the Tigers just a couple weeks after their primary deadline pickup for the bullpen, Kyle Finnegan, went on the injured list due to an adductor strain. Finnegan rattled off 14 1/3 shutout innings in his time with Detroit. His loss clearly stings, but he’s on a rehab assignment of his own now, Detroit could soon have Sewald, Finnegan and fellow July addition Rafael Montero all healthy for the first time before too long.

Heuer was acquired from the Rangers in July as well, though that was a simple cash swap that came with lower expectations. He allowed a pair of runs in 3 1/3 innings for the Tigers and was optioned back to Toledo, where he’s allowed two runs in 9 1/3 innings. That marked Heuer’s first big league action since 2021, as injuries have regularly kept him off the field. It’s a bit late in the season for him to land with another club — barring an unlikely scenario where a team wants to sign him to a big league deal and retain him via arbitration in the winter — so he’ll likely look to land a minor league deal in free agency this winter.

The Urquidy move is the most interesting of the bunch. Since he has more than five years of service, he needed to consent to be optioned. He granted that to the team but will technically be designated for assignment first. That’s a necessity for players with five-plus years of service who agree to be optioned, but because of that service standing, he doesn’t need to be placed on outright waivers or release waivers. He’ll be run through optional waivers before being optioned to Triple-A tomorrow.

This past offseason, the veteran Urquidy signed a one-year, $1MM contract that contains a $4MM club option for the 2026 season. The longtime Astros righty was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery at the time, so the Tigers signed the deal knowing he’d spend the bulk of the season rehabbing. He’s allowed two runs on four hits and three walks in 2 1/3 innings (14 batters faced) since returning. Urquidy looked sharp in 19 2/3 innings of rehab work (3.20 ERA, solid K-BB numbers), so by consenting to the option he’ll stay on the 40-man roster and remain an option for Detroit down the stretch — while retaining the possibility that the Tigers pick up that $4MM option for the 2026 season.

Nationals Have Interviewed Red Sox’ AGM Eddie Romero

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The Nationals are continuing to their attempts to get a front office in place before the offseason. Per a report from Ken Rosenthal and Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic, the Nats recently interviewed Eddie Romero, assistant general manager of the Red Sox. In a tweet, Ghiroli also mentions Royals assistant general manager Scott Sharp, though it’s unclear if Sharp has interviewed for the job.

Romero was been with the Red Sox a long time, having been hired in a scouting role back in 2006. He has since risen through the ranks, getting the assistant GM and executive vice-president titles in 2018. His work in Boston is clearly respected within the Red Sox franchise. In the fall of 2023, after the Sox had fired chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, Romero interviewed to be his replacement. That job ultimately went to Craig Breslow.

Romero is the second Boston assistant GM to be connected to the opening in Washington. It was reported last week that Paul Toboni is also a candidate. Today’s reporting confirms that Toboni did indeed interview for the job. However, Breslow is planning to a hire a GM to work as his second-in-command and Tim Healey of The Boston Globe writes that Toboni is a strong candidate for that position. If Toboni ultimately gets tapped for the GM role in Boston, that takes him off the table in Washington and could also lead to increased speculation about someone like Romero leaving.

Like Romero, Sharp has been with his club for many years, having been hired by the Royals in 2006. The Kansas City front office is currently headed by general manager J.J. Picollo. Sharp has been connected to a number of vacancies over the years, including the Mets’ GM search back in 2018, the Angels’ GM search in 2020 and the Giants’ GM search last year.

Sharp withdrew himself from the Giants’ GM search about a year ago, per Rosenthal. That was reportedly due to family considerations, though Rosenthal noted at that time that Sharp had an interest in running a front office at some point in the future.

The Nationals have been rebuilding for years now but the lack of progress led to president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo, and manager Dave Martinez, getting fired in July. Assistant GM Mike DeBartolo was given the GM title on an interim basis. He is a candidate to run the front office beyond the 2025 season, though the Nats have also considered a number of external candidates.

In addition to Romero, Toboni and Sharp, Guardians assistant GM Matt Forman, Dodgers senior vice president Josh Byrnes and D-Backs AGM Amiel Sawdaye have been tied to the Nats. Cubs general manager Carter Hawkins was also in the mix but is reportedly no longer in the running.

Per Rosenthal and Ghiroli, the Nats are considering hiring both a president of baseball operations and a general manager. It’s therefore possible they hire two of these aforementioned executives, though there are perhaps others in the mix who haven’t been publicly connected to the club.

The Nats want to have those decisions made by the end of the regular season so that they can then pivot to the managerial search. Miguel Cairo has been in the interim skipper since Martinez was fired. Whether or not Cairo is a candidate to stick around is presumably dependent on who is eventually picked to run the front office and how that person wants to go about the managerial search.

Photo courtesy of Brad Mills, Imagn Images

Mets Place Reed Garrett On IL With Elbow Sprain, Designate Dom Hamel

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The Mets announced a large slate of roster moves this morning, most notably placing righty Reed Garrett on the 15-day injured list due to a sprain in his right elbow. New York also selected the contract of righty Wander Suero from Triple-A Syracuse, designated right-hander Dom Hamel for assignment, recalled righties Huascar Brazoban and Chris Devenski from Syracuse and placed lefty Sean Manaea on the paternity list.

There’s no immediate timetable for Garrett’s return, but the 15-day IL placement ends his regular season. Taking a step back, any news of an elbow sprain — which by definition signifies stretching/tearing of a ligament — is an ominous development for a pitcher. That’s especially true in the case of Garrett, who only recently returned from a two-week IL stay due to inflammation in that same elbow. Presumably, manager Carlos Mendoza will have more information prior to this afternoon’s game against the Padres.

Garrett’s loss is a notable one for a Mets relief corps that has struggled amid what increasingly looks like a late-season collapse. They still hold the final NL Wild Card spot, but the Mets have dropped 10 of their past 13 games and only recently snapped a disastrous eight-game losing streak. The Mets are just 16-27 since the trade deadline passed — a .372 winning percentage that effectively matches the season-long mark of the rebuilding White Sox.

Shoddy bullpen work has been a critical factor. Mets relievers have posted a collective 4.76 ERA since Aug. 1 — the sixth-worst mark in the majors. The typically steady Garrett has contributed to those woes, yielding a run per inning over the course of a dozen frames in that time. It stands to reason that those struggles are tied directly to his elbow injury; Garrett was sporting a tidy 2.45 ERA in 47 2/3 frames before being shelled for eight runs in a span of five appearances and heading to the injured list. He was effective for the ’24 Mets as well, logging 57 2/3 innings with a 3.77 ERA and huge 33.6% strikeout rate.

At the very least, Garrett will be sidelined into a potential Wild Card series. His IL placement is retroactive to Sept. 15. In theory, he could return on Sept. 30, which is the first day of MLB’s Wild Card round of postseason play. A minimum stay for an elbow sprain is quite rare, however, and the fact that this is his second elbow-related IL stint in three weeks does little to quell concerns about a long-term absence.

The 32-year-old Garrett crossed two years of big league service time earlier this season and will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, as a clear Super Two player (2.143 years of service). He’s under club control through the 2029 season.

With Garrett shelved, the Mets will add Suero back to the major league roster. They claimed him off waivers from Atlanta last month, but Suero didn’t actually pitch in a game with the Mets before being designated for assignment and outrighted to Syracuse upon clearing waivers. He’s been tagged for eight runs in just 6 1/3 big league innings this season but was a frequently used bullpen arm for the Nationals from 2018-20, when he pitched 142 2/3 innings of 4.10 ERA ball with solid strikeout and walk rates.

Suero has struggled in limited big league work since that brief peak with Washington, but he’s been exceptional in Triple-A this season. The 34-year-old righty has tossed a pair of scoreless innings with the Mets’ Syracuse affiliate, adding to an impressive stretch with the Braves’ Triple-A club in Gwinnett. Between those two stops, he’s piled up 48 2/3 innings with a sparkling 1.29 ERA, a 32.5% strikeout rate and a 6.6% walk rate. Even with the lack of recent big league success, it’d be hard to say Suero hasn’t earned himself another look in the majors with this year’s Triple-A dominance.

As Suero rejoins the 40-man roster, the 26-year-old Hamel will lose his spot. The Mets selected Hamel with their third-round pick in 2021, and he made his big league debut just last night, tossing a scoreless inning against San Diego. (Granted, Hamel faced six batters and yielded three hits along the way.) The 6’2″ righty has had a rough season in Syracuse, totaling 67 2/3 innings and recording a 5.32 earned run average. Hamel fanned just over one-quarter of his opponents and notched a sharp 7.4% walk rate in Triple-A this season, but he was tagged for 1.60 homers per nine innings pitched and struggled with men on base.

Because the trade deadline has passed, the Mets’ only course of action with Hamel will be to place him on outright waivers or release waivers. The former is far likelier. He hasn’t been outrighted in the past and obviously has well under three years of big league service time, so he won’t have the right to elect free agency if he goes unclaimed. Hamel has a full slate of minor league options, which could appeal to other clubs seeking depth, but he’s a 91-94 mph righty who’s been hit hard in two Triple-A seasons — which should give the Mets a decent chance of slipping him through waivers and keeping him as a depth piece.

The Opener: Guardians, AL West, Pitchers’ Duel

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Guardians’ winning streak runs into Skubal:

The Guardians have won six games in a row and 11 of their past 12 to storm back into the conversation for a spot in the postseason. That includes taking the first two games of a three-game set against their division rival in Detroit, but now if they’re going to complete the sweep and extend their winning streak they’ll need to take down the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. Tarik Skubal has arguably been even better in 2025 than he was last year, with a 2.26 ERA and 2.45 FIP in 28 starts with a 32.1% strikeout rate, making him a strong candidate to win the award for a second straight year. Cleveland right-hander Tanner Bibee, who has a 4.44 ERA in 29 starts this year, will be tasked with keeping the Tigers in check.

2. Can the Mariners take advantage of Houston’s day off?

The Astros jumped out to a half-game lead over the Mariners in the AL West last night, but Houston does not play today while the Mariners face the Royals in Kansas City at 1:10pm local time. A win for Seattle would push them into a tie for the AL West, which would have massive implications on their upcoming weekend series against the Astros. While the Mariners would simply need to win the series to wrest control of the West if they win today, a loss to Kansas City today would mean they can only walk out of their set in Houston with a division lead if they sweep the Astros on their home turf. Veteran righty Luis Castillo (3.76 ERA) will be on the mound for Seattle. Kansas City will counter with deadline acquisition Stephen Kolek (3.71 ERA in 17 starts).

3. Pitchers’ duel between rivals:

The Dodgers and Giants clash in L.A. at 7:10pm local time and will send two of the NL’s best hurlers to the mound. Giants righty Logan Webb has a 3.34 ERA and 2.71 FIP this year — his fifth consecutive season with an ERA under 3.50 and a FIP under 3.20. The Dodgers will counter with Yoshinobu Yamamoto. His 162 1/3 innings handily trail Webb’s 188 2/3, but Yamamoto has the more dominant run prevention numbers. The 27-year-old has posted a 2.66 ERA with a 2.96 FIP in 28 starts while striking out an excellent 29.3% of his opponents. The Giants are two games back in the NL Wild Card race, while the Dodgers hold a two-game lead over the Padres in the hunt for the NL West title.

Fantasy Baseball Subscriber Chat With Nicklaus Gaut

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Nicklaus Gaut will be talking fantasy baseball with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers (one hour earlier than usual) today at 10 am Central time. Get your question in early or participate in the live event at the link below!

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MLB Mailbag: Cardinals, Orioles, Astros, Schwarber, Casas

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This week's mailbag covers the trade value of Willson Contreras, Sonny Gray, and Nolan Arenado, the Orioles' need this winter, the Astros' infield logjam, Kyle Schwarber's Hall of Fame candidacy, and how the Red Sox might approach first base next year.

Sam asks:

Assuming Willson Contreras agrees to waive his NTC, what sort of return would the Cardinals receive? Same question for Sonny Gray too please. (Assuming that Arenado is not moved or that the Cardinals eat most of his contract in exchange for a PTBNL or similar from his limited list of teams)

Hugh asks:

Assuming Arenado and Gray waive NTCs, what are the chances Cardinals can move them? Would Arenado be a non-tender candidate?

It's difficult to just assume Contreras, Gray, or Arenado would waive their no-trade clauses, even for the sake or argument.  That's because those players would basically never entertain saying, "OK, I consent to a trade to any of the other 29 teams.  Go for it!"  They'd do something like what Arenado did last winter: provide a list of approved teams, and/or tell the GM you'll take it on a case-by-case basis if a deal is close.

I think these questions are more to get at what kind of trade value each player has, so let's assess that.

Contreras, 34 next May, became a full-time first baseman for the Cardinals this year.  Perhaps a new team would consider using him behind the plate here or there, especially if the automated ball-strike system is implemented, but we'll mostly consider him a first baseman/DH.

Contreras dealt with some minor injuries this year, but had avoided the IL until today.  His season has ended due to a right shoulder strain.  Contreras managed to post a solid 123 wRC+ in a career-high 563 plate appearances, good for 2.8 FanGraphs WAR in 135 games.

If we give Contreras some grace for having to adjust to his new defensive duties in April, it's worth noting that he had a 135 wRC+ since May.  This is a potential top-20 hitter in the game with plenty of red on his Statcast page who can arguably hang with the likes of Rafael Devers and Bryce Harper.  I don't think Contreras has that reputation, but that's what I see.  As a cherry on top, his first base defense appears to be average or better.

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

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MLBTR Podcast: The Struggling Mets, Bryce Eldridge, And Trey Yesavage

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will the Astros trade Christian Walker in the offseason and move Isaac Paredes over to first base? (38:45)
  • Will the Braves make any shocking trades of their core this offseason? (47:40)
  • Will the Red Sox nab a postseason spot and can they make a deep postseason run? (55:00)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Benny Sieu, Imagn Images

MLB Abandons Plans For 2026 London Series

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Major League Baseball will no longer proceed with plans for the London Series in 2026, the league announced (link via Ronald Blum of The Associated Press). MLB had intended to play a two-game series between the Yankees and Blue Jays at London Stadium on June 13-14 next year. Those games are listed as a home series for the Blue Jays, so they’ll presumably take place back at the Rogers Centre.

The series will no longer occur because of a scheduling conflict. London Stadium is the home venue of West Ham United F.C., the city’s Premier League club. The Premier League runs through the final week of May. West Ham’s last home match is on May 24. MLB did not feel that left enough time to convert the venue to a baseball field. Fox, which was scheduled to carry the game, could not accommodate any delays because of its commitments to broadcasting World Cup matches later in the month.

MLB has scheduled a few games outside the United States and Canada as part of its World Tour initiative. It kicked off the London Series in 2019 with a two-game set between the Yankees and Red Sox. The following season’s games were canceled because of the pandemic. MLB scheduled series there in 2023 (Cubs vs. Cardinals) and ’24 (Mets vs. Phillies). This year’s only international series outside Canada was the season-opening two-game set between the Dodgers and Cubs at the Tokyo Dome in late March. The collective bargaining agreement permitted MLB to schedule games in San Juan, Paris, and Mexico City as well. However, the league decided not to pursue any of those plans for financial reasons.

It is expected there will still be one international series in 2026. The Padres and Diamondbacks have had reported discussions about playing in Mexico City early in the year. While MLB has not made an official announcement, the league scheduled a two-game set between those clubs on April 25 and 26 that comes with an off day on each side. That’s currently listed as a home series for the D-Backs but would apparently be played in Mexico if the details are finalized.

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