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Kyle Schwarber, Phillies Finalizing Five-Year Deal

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The Phillies are bringing him back. Slugger Kyle Schwarber and the Phils are finalizing a five-year, $150MM deal, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. It’s a straightforward $30MM per year, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Schwarber is represented by Excel Sports Management.

The deal is a testament to Schwarber’s elite talents as it sets new precedents in a few different ways. Schwarber is primarily a designated hitter, having played the outfield just 13 times combined over the past two years. He is also turning 33 years old in March.

Those are both qualities which tend to tamp down a player’s earning power. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the biggest guarantee for any free agent age-33 or older was Josh Donaldson’s $92MM deal with the Twins, which was signed when he was still a capable third baseman. Pure designated hitters also tend not to get paid. Per the Contract Tracker, Shohei Ohtani is the only free agent DH to get to nine figures. He was obviously a special case as a two-way player and superstar.

Schwarber himself has proved to be a special case, as he just keeps getting better at the plate. He has always been a guy who strikes out and walks a lot, with notable power mixed in. From 2017 to 2021, he was generally good for about 30 home runs per year. He got to 38 in 2019, but that was the year with the juiced balls.

Over the past four years, Schwarber has never finished with fewer than 38 long balls. He’s reached 46 in three of those four. In 2025, he set a new personal best with 56. He has also erased his previous platoon issues. In 2024, he slashed .300/.407/.490 for a 152 wRC+ against lefties, compared to a .218/.342/.482 line and 124 wRC+ otherwise. In 2025, those lines were .252/.366/.598 and .232/.364/.541 for respective wRC+ numbers of 162 and 146.

On top of the statistics, Schwarber has received praise for his leadership and clubhouse presence during his time with the Phillies. They clearly wanted to bring him back but plenty of other teams were interested as well. The Mets, Pirates, Reds, Red Sox, Orioles and Giants were all connected to him in recent weeks. The Bucs even reportedly made an offer of four-years and $120MM, a very bold gesture for a club that has never signed a free agent for more than $39MM.

But amid all that interest from other clubs, it always seemed like the safe bet would be Schwarber returning to Philadelphia. He was clearly beloved in the city and in the clubhouse. The Phils have a number of other needs but they have been aggressive spenders in recent years and it seemed like they would likely top whatever deal Schwarber got elsewhere. They have done so and, as mentioned, set new benchmarks for free agent deals for a hitter this age or a designated hitter of any age. MLBTR predicted he could secure a five-year, $135MM deal. He got those five years but did a bit better than predicted in terms of the average annual value.

More to come.

Dodgers To Sign Edwin Diaz

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10:35am: It’s a $69MM guarantee for Diaz, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. That $23MM annual value is indeed a new record for a reliever.

10:31am: The two sides have agreed to a three-year deal, Sammon and colleague Ken Rosenthal report. It’s presumably at a record-setting annual value for a reliever. Diaz currently holds that record with the $20.4MM AAV on the contract from which he just opted out last month.

10:20am: The Dodgers and right-hander Edwin Diaz have agreed to terms on a contract, reports Will Sammon of The Athletic. Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported not long before the agreement that Los Angeles had been showing interest in Diaz, who’s represented by Wasserman.

Diaz returned to the open market this winter, opting out of the final two seasons of the record-breaking five-year, $102MM contract he signed with the Mets the last time he was a free agent. The right-hander had been guaranteed $38MM over the final two seasons of that contract, so by opting out and testing the market, he secured himself an additional one year and $31MM in guarantees.

He’s spent the past seven years in Queens and, after a rocky first campaign, has turned in a collective 2.36 ERA (2.12 SIERA, 2.15 FIP) with a mammoth 40.8% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. Diaz has piled up 144 saves in 332 appearances as a Met.

For the Dodgers, Diaz represents the most on-the-nose means of addressing a problem that nearly doomed them in the postseason: a lack of reliable bullpen help. Injuries to Evan Phillips, Tanner Scott, Brusdar Graterol and others left the Dodgers with a thin enough stock of trustworthy relievers that L.A. turned to Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (one day after he threw nearly 100 pitches) in pivotal high-leverage settings during their World Series run. That they even progressed to the World Series was largely attributable to historic performances from starters Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani in the postseason’s earlier rounds.

The Dodgers have now signed the top reliever on the market in consecutive offseasons. They inked Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72MM pact last winter, though that deal contained $21MM worth of deferred money, thus knocking down the present value. Scott’s first year in L.A. didn’t go at all as hoped; he limped to a 4.74 ERA with improved command but lesser velocity and strikeout rates. After yielding 11 home runs in the 2022-24 seasons combined, Scott served up 11 round-trippers in his first season as a Dodger.

Certainly, they’ll hope for better results with Diaz, whose track record is lengthier and steadier than that of Scott. While he’s naturally had some year-to-year variance in his earned run averages — as is the case for any reliever — Diaz has been at 3.52 or better in each of the past five seasons, including three sub-2.00 campaigns. He’s punched out at least 34.6% of his opponents each season along the way, and since a shaky walk rate in 2021, he’s sat between 7.7% and 9.3% in that regard for four straight seasons.

Diaz will slot into the ninth inning, pushing Scott to a setup role alongside Scott, Alex Vesia, Blake Treinen, Anthony Banda, Brock Stewart and Graterol. Will Klein, Ben Casparius and Jack Dreyer all had solid or better seasons in 2025, but if everyone is healthy — far from a given — there’s only room for one of that trio in the final bullpen spot. Of course, injuries will inevitably create opportunities for many of the Dodgers’ overqualified depth arms, and each of Klein, Casparius, Dreyer and Edgardo Henriquez have minor league options remaining.

The Dodgers have paid the luxury tax in (more than) three consecutive seasons and are more than $60MM over the $244MM first-tier luxury threshold, meaning they’ll pay a 110% tax on the AAV on Diaz’s contract. However the annual salaries break down, he’ll cost them an additional $25.3MM in taxes alone. Assuming an evenly distributed $23MM per season, RosterResource, now projects next year’s Dodgers payroll at just over $359MM (although that does not account for substantial deferrals to Ohtani, Scott, Freddie Freeman, etc.).

More to come.

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Astros Sign Ryan Weiss To Major League Deal

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December 9th: The Astros have now officially announced their signing of Weiss. The opened two roster spots last week by outrighting Taylor Trammell and Logan VanWey. Their 40-man count is now at 39.

December 2nd: The Astros have reportedly agreed to a major league deal with right-hander Ryan Weiss, who has been pitching in Korea lately. Weiss is guaranteed $2.6MM and there’s a club option for 2027. The Sports One Athlete Management client could potentially earn $10MM over the course of the pact. The Astros have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to make this official.

It’s a bit of an early birthday present for Weiss, who turns 29 next Wednesday. A fourth-round draft pick of the Diamondbacks back in 2018, he showed enough promise as a minor leaguer that the Snakes added him to their 40-man in November of 2021 to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. He had just tossed 78 1/3 minor league innings in that 2021 season with a 4.60 earned run average and 9.5% walk rate but his 27% strikeout rate was quite good.

He struggled in the minors in 2022 and was placed on waivers, with the Royals placing a claim. Kansas City then passed him through waivers unclaimed in October of 2022. The Royals then released him in May of 2023. At that point, Weiss had tossed 76 1/3 innings on the farm, dating back to the start of 2022. In that time, he allowed 6.96 earned runs per nine.

That release kicked off a nomadic period for Weiss. He then landed with the High Point Rockers of the independent Atlantic League. After a few months there, with a 4.61 ERA, he signed with the Fubon Guardians of Taiwan’s Chinese Professional Baseball League. He had a decent 2.32 ERA there, though in just 31 innings. He started 2024 back with the Rockers, posting a 4.61 ERA over nine starts.

In June of 2024, he signed with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization. It was with that club that he seemed to unlock a new gear. In 2024, he gave the Eagles 16 starts with a 3.73 ERA, 25.5% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and 48.2% ground ball rate. He returned to the Eagles in 2025 and took the ball 30 more times. He logged 178 2/3 innings with a 2.87 ERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 48.5% ground ball rate.

Weiss then pitched in relief for the Eagles in the playoffs but the Astros plan to utilize him as a starter. Houston has plenty of uncertainty in their rotation mix. They just lost Framber Valdez to free agency. Luis Garcia required another Tommy John surgery late in 2025 and has been jettisoned from the roster. Hayden Wesneski, Ronel Blanco and Brandon Walter also had TJS in 2025 and are slated to begin next year on the injured list.

That left the Astros going into 2026 with Hunter Brown and a heap of question marks behind him. Cristian Javier will be in the mix but he had a 4.62 ERA in 2025 after returning from his own lengthy surgery layoff. Lance McCullers Jr. has had all kind of injury troubles and put up a 6.51 ERA this year. Spencer Arrighetti was good in 2024 but spent most of 2025 on the IL and only made seven starts. Jason Alexander had some passable results this year but he’s a journeyman depth guy who’s about to turn 33. J.P. France spent most of 2025 recovering from shoulder surgery. Colton Gordon and AJ Blubaugh are on the 40-man but lacking in experience.

Upgrading the rotation for 2026 makes plenty of sense but it appears the club doesn’t have a ton of spending capacity. Reportedly, owner Jim Crane would prefer to avoid the competitive balance tax in 2026. RosterResource projects them for a $218MM CBT number next year. That’s more than $20MM below next year’s $244MM base threshold but the club also has other needs to address this winter. Trading someone like Christian Walker or Jake Meyers might free up some extra space but it’s somewhat tight for now.

So far, their rotation additions have been of the low-cost wild card variety. They took a flier on former top prospect Nate Pearson, signing him to a $1.35MM guarantee. Now they’ve added Weiss into the mix as well. Perhaps there’s a more surefire rotation upgrade over the horizon. For now, the Astros are making a modest bet that Weiss transfer some of his strong KBO results to the MLB level. For his part, Weiss gets a nice paycheck despite still having no major league experience.

Reporter Daniel Kim first reported that the two sides were close to a deal. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reported that an agreement was in place for a major league pact and that Weiss will be a starter. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported the guarantee, the presence of a ’27 option and the possibility for the deal to go beyond $10MM. Chandler Rome of The Athletic specified that the option is a club option.

Breslow: Red Sox Willing To Trade Controllable Starting Pitching

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The Red Sox began the offseason looking to add to the rotation. They’ve added a couple of arms and might now have enough rotation depth to trade some away. “We’ve got pitching depth, based on some of the inbound calls that we’ve received over the last couple of weeks,” chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said this week, per Sean McAdam of MassLive. “I think teams have recognized there’s appeal to controllable starting pitching. If there are opportunities to use some of that depth in order to address other areas of the roster, we’d be willing to do it.”

The Sox have already made a couple of notable trades to bolster the rotation. They acquired Sonny Gray from the Cardinals and Johan Oviedo from the Pirates. Those two now slot into the rotation with Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello. That only leaves one spot for a group that includes Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Hunter Dobbins, Patrick Sandoval, Kutter Crawford, Kyle Harrison and others.

No team gets through a full season using just five pitchers these days, so the Sox should want to hold onto some depth. But it’s possible the right trade emerges where the Sox feel they can move someone out of this group in order to upgrade another part of the roster while leaving the rotation picture still in decent shape.

It’s been reported that the Astros have interest in Early and Tolle. McAdams notes that the Sox have also fielded some interest in Crawford, Sandoval and Dobbins, though he doesn’t specify which teams made those calls. Crawford and Sandoval are in somewhat analogous situations, as both missed the 2025 season due to injuries. Though both pitchers have some major league success, it’s possible the Sox didn’t want to rely on them in 2026. Now that they have each been bumped down the depth chart in Boston, they could make more sense on another roster.

Crawford has thrown 392 1/3 innings for the Sox, allowing 4.57 earned runs per nine. His 23.8% strikeout rate and 7.2% walk rate are both a bit better than league average. He began 2025 on the injured list due to patellar tendinopathy in his right knee. Then right wrist pain led to surgery in June.

Missing the entire season obviously tamps down his trade value but his cost and control should help. He qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player and made $2.75MM in 2025. Arb-eligible players who miss an entire season often make the same salary the following year, so that could happen with Crawford in 2026. He could then be retained via arbitration through 2028.

Sandoval isn’t as cheap or controllable but his major league track record is longer. He required UCL surgery while with the Angels in 2024. He was non-tendered and then signed a two-year, $18.25MM deal with the Red Sox. He tried to get back on a big league mound late in 2025 but wasn’t able to do so. His deal was backloaded, so he is owed $12.75MM in 2026 and will be a free agent after that.

That’s a less appealing contractual situation than Crawford but Sandoval’s pre-injury track record is strong. He gave the Angels 536 innings with a 4.01 ERA. His 22.7% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate are a bit worse than Crawford’s but Sandoval also got ground balls at a strong 47.9% clip.

Dobbins is a different situation, as he has a much smaller track record but is therefore cheaper and more controllable. He has just 61 big league innings under his belt, with a 4.13 ERA. His 2025 season was ended by an ACL tear in July. He has less than a year of service time, meaning he’s still years away from even qualifying for arbitration and even farther from free agency. He also has options and can be kept in the minors as depth.

Given his limited big league action, an interested club would have to bet on his minor league track record. Across 2023 and 2024, he tossed 238 1/3 innings on the farm with a 3.36 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate.

Given the chatter around Crawford, Sandoval, Dobbins, Tolle and Early, there are many ways the Red Sox could go. Many expect the Sox to also trade one of Jarren Duran , Wilyer Abreu or Masataka Yoshida. They could also trade Triston Casas if they add a first baseman. Their outfield seems set but they have lots of ways they could upgrade the infield, with shortstop the only spot that seems locked down right now. Given all the possible permutations, there are infinite paths ahead.

One possibility that keeps coming up is Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks. He has already been in plenty of rumors, including a connection to the Sox. McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive write that the two clubs have had some talks about Marte, with the Snakes focused on controllable starting pitching as the return.

It’s a sensible enough framework. Arizona traded Merrill Kelly at last year’s deadline and lost Zac Gallen to free agency. They recently signed Michael Soroka but that’s not enough to satisfy their needs. John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix reported after the Soroka deal that the Diamondbacks are still looking for more arms. Owner Ken Kendrick has suggested the payroll should be dropping a bit relative to 2025, so turning to the trade market is logical.

That doesn’t mean a Marte-for-pitching deal is likely. Arizona’s general manager Mike Hazen has repeatedly tried to downplay the Marte rumors and did so again this week on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM. He said that the Diamondbacks have been receiving trade interest in Marte annually for years. He attributed the interest and rumors to Marte’s superstar abilities and relatively team-friendly contract.

Over the past three years, Marte has slashed .283/.368/.519 for a 140 wRC+. His 11.2% walk rate an 16.7% strikeout rate are both strong figures. His glovework at second base is generally considered solid. FanGraphs credited him with 15.3 wins above replacement over that three-year span, making him one of the top 15 position players in the league.

Relative to other superstars, he is underpaid. He is guaranteed $102.5MM over the next six years, an average annual value of just over $17MM, in an age where most star players are earning more than double that on an annual basis. There are also notable deferrals in Marte’s deal, making it even more attractive.

Time will tell if anyone blows away the Snakes with a strong enough offer to pluck Marte away. The Sox are a possibility, given the arms they have on hand, though Marte has also been connected to the Mariners, Pirates, Rays, Tigers, Phillies and Blue Jays. If Boston can’t land Marte, they should have plenty of other options since starting pitching is in high demand around the league. McAdam reports that the Sox have had talks with at least three teams aside from the Diamondbacks.

Photo courtesy of Dale Zanine, Imagn Images

Twins Looking To Add Bullpen Help, Power Bat

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The Twins tore down their bullpen in July, trading five relievers as part of a deadline fire sale that shipped a whopping 11 players out of the Twin Cities. They’re planning to hold onto stars Byron Buxton, Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan, however, and will be looking to make some additions via free agency and trade over the remainder of the offseason. Specifically, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Jeremy Zoll called out restocking that barren bullpen and adding at least one power bat to the lineup as areas of focus (links via Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune and Dan Hayes of The Athletic).

Minnesota carried one of the best bullpens in the entire sport into the trade deadline. Twins relievers posted a middling 4.29 ERA through July 29, but that number was skewed by some position players working mop-up duty and some brutal results from relievers who’d already been designated for assignment (e.g. Jorge Alcala). Minnesota’s top relievers had all been good to excellent. Jhoan Duran (2.01 ERA), Louis Varland (2.02), Griffin Jax (3.91 ERA but a 37 K%), Brock Stewart (2.38 ERA) and Danny Coulombe (0.90 ERA) formed a terrific nucleus. All were traded.

The returns from that bunch brough back a blend of well-regarded prospects (e.g. Eduardo Tait, Kendry Rojas) and controllable big leaguers (e.g. Mick Abel, Taj Bradley, Alan Roden). They also trimmed a few million dollars off the 2025 budget and nearly $13MM in projected arbitration salaries off the 2026 ledger.

Of course, the result of that dismantling was an MLB-worst bullpen down the stretch and a now-barren group that requires significant retooling. Cole Sands, Justin Topa and trade pickup Eric Orze are the only things close to established, MLB-caliber arms in the bullpen at present. Left-hander Kody Funderburk was terrific down the stretch (0.75 ERA in 24 post-deadline innings) but has a shakier overall track record in the majors.

The Twins aren’t going to spend at top-of-market levels. Initial reports surrounding their change in tenor have indicated that there’s room for modest payroll growth, but Hayes suggests 2026’s Opening Day payroll will probably still be at its lowest point in years (excluding the shortened 2020 season, of course).

Currently, Minnesota projects for a $95MM payroll, per RosterResource. That number would fall closer to $90MM if the team trades outfielder Trevor Larnach, who’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to make $4.7MM but is somewhat redundant on a roster also including Matt Wallner and the aforementioned Roden. The Twins’ top two prospects, Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez, are also left-handed-hitting outfielders. Both could make their MLB debut in 2026.

Minnesota figures to add multiple arms to the bullpen. It’s also possible, if not likely, that some of the rotation candidates currently in a deep but unproven mix will wind up pitching meaningful relief innings. Ryan and Lopez are locked into the top two rotation spots. Right-hander Bailey Ober will look to bounce back from an injury-marred season. He’d been a quality third/fourth starter prior to 2025.

Abel, Bradley, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa and Zebby Matthews will all vie for rotation jobs as well. All were top-100 prospects prior to their MLB debuts, but most of that bunch has struggled to varying levels. Woods Richardson, who’s out of minor league options and posted a flat 3.00 ERA in his final 14 starts last year (albeit averaging just five frames per start) probably has the biggest leg up at the moment, but spring training will be pivotal in determining the composition of the starting staff.

Even if two of those potential starters end up in the ’pen, there’s still room to add multiple arms. The Twins figure to traffic primarily in low-cost one-year deals, though that’s nothing new for this front office regime. Falvey has been running baseball operations in Minnesota for a decade now, and he’s only given one multi-year contract to a free agent reliever (Addison Reed, on a two-year deal). Pierce Johnson, Paul Sewald, Tommy Kahnle and Jacob Webb are among the notable one-year deal candidates in free agency. The trade market will obviously offer a much wider and harder-to-predict slate of possibilities.

With regard to the lineup, Zoll indicated that Minnesota would like “another bat or two with some thump, with some impact.” The Twins didn’t tip their hand as to potential areas of focus, but first base stands out as an obvious on-paper fit. The bulk of the other positions on the diamond are spoken for. Buxton will be back in center field. The outfield corners will be manned by a combination of Wallner, Larnach, Roden, Austin Martin and, eventually, previously mentioned prospects like Jenkins and Rodriguez (and possibly Gabriel Gonzalez, too). Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee and Luke Keaschall figure to line up at third base, shortstop and second base, respectively. Ryan Jeffers will be back behind the plate.

First base is far less certain. Minnesota could always try one of those corner outfield bats at first, but right now the top option on the depth chart is journeyman Kody Clemens. Affordable options in free agency include Nathaniel Lowe, Rhys Hoskins, Paul Goldschmidt and Josh Bell. The trade market could again present alternatives, with Triston Casas, Alec Burleson, Ryan Mountcastle and Mark Vientos among some of the plausible names to consider.

However things play out, a spending spree isn’t likely, even with the team sitting some $40-45MM shy of last year’s Opening Day payroll. The Twins haven’t and won’t give any indication as to a final budgetary target, but Hayes speculates that something in the $110MM range might be reasonable. Even if that’s closer to $115MM, the Twins would be looking at about $20MM in total 2026 spending (or closer to $25MM if Larnach is moved). It doesn’t leave a lot of space for additions and could push Falvey, Zoll and the rest of the front office to pursue trades more heavily than free agency, but Minnesota has a deep farm that should allow them to pursue the sort of “creative” scenarios both Falvey and Zoll said will be necessary under this new financial reality.

White Sox Sign Anthony Kay To Two-Year Deal

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December 9th: The White Sox officially announced the Kay signing today.

December 3rd: The White Sox and left-hander Anthony Kay are reportedly in agreement on a two-year, $12MM contract. The former first-round pick and top prospect, who’s represented by CAA, will be paid $5MM in each of the next two seasons and has a $2MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option for the 2028 season. He can earn another $1.5MM via incentives. Kay has spent the past two seasons pitching well for the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.

It’s a familiar page in general manager Chris Getz’s playbook: sign a former first-rounder to a two-year deal on the heels of a strong run pitching in one of the top leagues in Asia.

That strategy worked out reasonably well when Chicago signed Erick Fedde for two years and $15MM in the 2023-24 offseason following a terrific season in the Korea Baseball Organization; Fedde was traded to the Cardinals in a three-team swap in July 2024, netting the White Sox Miguel Vargas and minor league infielders Alexander Albertus and Jeral Perez. Vargas was a league-average bat for the South Siders in 2025 and is controlled another four seasons. Albertus and Perez rank within the top 25 prospects in the Sox’ system.

The Sox will hope for similar results in their similarly priced investment into Kay. The 30-year-old southpaw (31 in March) has pitched 291 2/3 innings since heading to Japan. In that time, he’s logged a 2.53 ERA with a 20.9% strikeout rate, 7.9% walk rate and 54.5% ground-ball rate in 48 starts out of the BayStars’ rotation.

Kay has changed his pitch repertoire since moving to NPB. He sat 94.1 mph with a four-seamer, 87.9 mph with a cutter and 86.2 mph with a slider during his limited big league work from 2019-23. He’s added about three miles per hour to that cutter and also begun throwing a sinker that he didn’t have during his last run in North America, which he credits with generating more soft contact. He’s still throwing a sweeper and occasional changeup, and the lefty has also dabbled with a curveball. (He spoke about those changes and more in an October chat with Fansided’s Robert Murray.)

From 2019-23, Kay pitched 85 1/3 innings between the Blue Jays, Cubs and Mets. It was the Mets who originally selected him 31st overall back in 2016, though they were actually the third team for whom he pitched in the majors. New York traded Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson to the Blue Jays in exchange for Marcus Stroman back in 2019, and Kay made his MLB debut not long after the swap.

Things never clicked for Kay in the majors. He’s been tagged for a 5.59 ERA with a solid 22.4% strikeout rate but an ugly 12% walk rate. Opponents averaged 1.27 homers per nine innings against him. He didn’t fare much better in terms of run prevention in parts of four Triple-A seasons, logging a 5.40 earned run average in 148 1/3 innings pitched.

As we saw with Fedde and with yesterday’s three-year, $30MM deal between the Blue Jays and Cody Ponce, what Kay did in his prior MLB work holds virtually no bearing on his newfound payday. He’s a different pitcher now than he was at any point in 2019-23, and the White Sox are paying him based on the their belief that the changes he’s implemented while pitching in Yokohama will beget better results back in Major League Baseball.

There’s inherent risk, but at this price point, it’s also hard to fault a White Sox club that’s still in the midst of a rebuilding effort. Kay will either pitch well, at which point he’d emerge as a nice trade chip, or he’ll continue to struggle and the Sox will be out a relatively modest $5MM per season. The overall scope of this commitment is less than the $15MM paydays we saw for aging veterans in their late 30s/early 40s last year (e.g. Charlie Morton, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Alex Cobb). It’s a life-changing deal for Kay but a small-scale gamble for the team.

Kay steps into a rotation mix that has plenty of options but is lacking when it comes to established contributors. Right-handers Shane Smith, Sean Burke and Davis Martin all pitched between 134 and 146 innings with ERAs between 3.81 (Smith) and 4.22 (Burke). None of the three has more than one full season of big league success. Smith was a Rule 5 pick at last year’s Winter Meetings and a rookie in 2025.

Those four are now favored to open the year in manager Will Venable’s rotation. Jonathan Cannon is tentatively penciled into the fifth spot for the time being, but he struggled greatly in 2025 and has minor league options remaining. Prospects Ky Bush and Drew Thorpe could be midseason options as they work their way back from Tommy John surgery performed last spring. Lefties Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith rank among the game’s top pitching prospects and could be ready at some point next summer as well.

There’s still room for the Sox to add some veteran innings. Getz has previously voiced a reluctance to commit to free agents beyond the 2026 season — though he did so with Kay, albeit in moderate fashion. There ought to be plenty of veteran arms looking at one-year deals, whether that’s a back-of-the-rotation innings eater (e.g. Michael Lorenzen, Patrick Corbin) or an upside play coming off an injury or poor performance (e.g. Nestor Cortes, Walker Buehler, Dustin May). The White Sox’ payroll currently projects at just $68MM, per RosterResource, so there’s room for Getz & Co. to bring in several additions to fill out the rotation, bullpen, outfield and infield.

Murray first reported that the two parties had agreed to a two-year, $12MM deal. The Athletic’s Will Sammon added details about the specific breakdown and incentives.

Red Sox Interested In Isaac Paredes; Astros Showing Interest In Payton Tolle, Connelly Early, Mike Burrows

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With Framber Valdez now a free agent and the rotation still smarting from an injury-plagued season, the Astros are known to exploring the market for young, controllable starting pitching.  As per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, pitchers on Houston’s radar includes the Pirates’ Mike Burrows, and Red Sox left-handers Payton Tolle and Connelly Early.

Adding to the intrigue is Boston’s interest in Astros infielder Isaac Paredes, as Rosenthal writes that the Red Sox view Paredes as a candidate to play third base, or to cover first base if Alex Bregman re-signs with the team.  “Bregman still appears to be the Red Sox’s No. 1 target,” according to Rosenthal, but the Sox are casting a wide berth for other infield candidates in the event that Bregman signs elsewhere.

Paredes is projected for a $9.3MM salary via the arbitration process this winter, and he has one further year of arb control remaining as a Super Two player.  Between these two years of affordable control, Paredes’ ability to handle either corner infield slot as well as second base, and his potent bat makes him a valuable asset, though he has already been traded four times in his career, including twice within the last 18 months.  The Rays dealt Paredes to the Cubs at the 2024 deadline, and Chicago then included Paredes as part of the Kyle Tucker blockbuster last winter.

In his first season in Houston, Paredes spent two months on the injured list due to a severe hamstring strain, but mostly lived up to expectations by hitting .254/.352/.458 with 20 home runs over 438 plate appearances.  As such, Astros GM Dana Brown said last month that moving Paredes “would be weakening our lineup.  So right now, we have no interest in trading him.”

Of course, the “right now” left the door open, and the lure of one of Boston’s young southpaws could make the Astros more amendable to a trade.  Moving Paredes would have the side benefit of clearing some space within the crowded Houston infield, which has Paredes, Christian Walker, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, and Carlos Correa all lined up for four infield positions since the Astros are planning to primarily use Yordan Alvarez as the DH.  Dealing Paredes also shaves $9.3MM off of the payroll, freeing up more money for the Astros to address other needs.

Early and Tolle each made their MLB debuts in 2025.  A second-round pick in the 2024 draft, Tolle made it to the Show just 13 months after his draft date, thanks to some standout numbers at three different levels of Boston’s farm system.  It might have been a bit too much too soon for Tolle, as he posted a 6.06 ERA across his first 16 1/3 innings in the bigs, and the Sox soon transitioned him into a bullpen role both in September and for the Wild Card Series against the Yankees.

Early, a fifth-round pick from the 2023 draft, made the better first impression, delivering a 2.33 ERA, 46.7% grounder rate, 5.1% walk rate, and 36.1% strikeout rate across four starts and 19 1/3 innings.  Due in part to a lack of healthy rotation depth, the Red Sox even entrusted Early with the start in the pivotal Game 3 of the Wild Card Series, and the young southpaw was tagged for four runs (three earned) over 3 2/3 innings in a 4-0 New York victory that ended Boston’s season.

The Sox wouldn’t normally have much interest in moving either of these highly-touted young hurlers, and it might still be unlikely that either Tolle or Early are actually dealt.  However, the additions of Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo have added to Boston’s rotation depth, and those two pitchers now look set to join Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello as the top four in the projected rotation.  This leaves Tolle and Early as two of several pitchers (i.e. Kutter Crawford, Patrick Sandoval, Kyle Harrison and more) competing for perhaps just one rotation job.

Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier and other reporters that the club had indeed received calls about their starters, as “I think teams have recognized that there’s appeal to controllable starting pitching.  If there are opportunities to use some of that depth in order to address other areas of the roster, we’d be willing to do it.”

The Red Sox and Pirates lined up on a notable pitching-for-hitting trade earlier this week, as Oviedo was the primary return heading to Boston while the Bucs picked up a promising young outfielder in Jhostynxon Garcia.  In the wake of that trade, Rosenthal wrote that Pittsburgh was still willing to discuss trading other starters besides Paul Skenes, and Pirates GM Ben Cherington said the same Monday at the Winter Meetings.

“We’ll have a high bar” for such trades, Cherington told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Colin Beazley and other reporters.  “Will more likely consider that if [the return is] something that’s coming back immediately into our lineup.  [We’re] also open to adding pitching.  We’re not only engaged on position players; we’re talking about adding pitching, too.  If we did trade a starter, [it] probably increases the motivation to add back to the pitching also.”

Moving Burrows could therefore be the first step in a chain reaction of moves for the Pirates, who are intent on upgrading their lineup this offseason.  This has manifested itself in a surprising pursuit of Kyle Schwarber and interest in other notable free agents and trade targets like Kazuma Okamoto, Ketel Marte, Brendan Donovan, Jorge Polanco, Ryan O’Hearn, and more.

Entering his age-26 season, Burrows still has less than a full year of MLB service time under his belt.  The right-hander made his big league debut in the form a single-game cup of coffee in 2024, and then posted a 3.94 ERA over 96 innings with Pittsburgh this year, starting 19 of his 23 appearances.  Burrows backed up his ERA with a solid 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate.

Over 291 1/3 innings in the Pirates’ farm system, Burrows had a 3.58 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, and 9.18 BB%.  He missed big chunks of the 2023-24 seasons while recovering from Tommy John surgery, which is probably why the righty hasn’t gotten as much attention as some of the other top-100 hurlers in the Pirates’ farm system.  This could conceivably make Burrows a little more available than the likes of Braxton Ashcraft or Thomas Harrington, though only the Bucs know how they’re internally ranking their various rotation candidates.

Pirates Made Four-Year Offer To Kyle Schwarber

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TODAY: In a follow-up to his original report, Rosenthal specified that the Pirates’ four-year offer was worth roughly $120MM.

DECEMBER 7: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the Pirates have made a four-year offer to free agent slugger Kyle Schwarber. Rosenthal adds that the proposal is likely worth more than $100MM.

The club has been mentioned multiple times as Schwarber’s market takes shape this offseason. He’s not the only big bat they’ve been in on, as they also pursued Josh Naylor before he re-signed with Seattle. Rosenthal notes the Pirates remain an unlikely landing spot for Schwarber, though GM Ben Cherington previously said the team has “more [financial] flexibility” than they’ve had in prior offseasons.

Schwarber had a career year at just the right time. As a pending free agent, he launched 56 home runs to lead the National League. He posted a career-high 152 wRC+, which ranked behind only Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto in the NL. Schwarber had a strong case for NL MVP if not for the two-way dominance of Ohtani.

While the free agent market features prodigious power hitters like Pete Alonso and Eugenio Suarez, plus high-upside thumpers like Munetaka Murakami, it’s hard to find an available slugger who matches Schwarber’s consistency. The 32-year-old has hit at least 38 home runs in all four seasons with Philadelphia. He’s topped 100 runs in each campaign, while averaging more than 108 RBI per year. Schwarber had a minimum stint on the IL for a hamstring strain in 2024, but has otherwise been healthy, reaching 150 games every season in Philly.

The note that the Pirates’ offer to Schwarber is in the nine figures isn’t a surprise. We had him getting $135MM over five years in our Top 50 Free Agents article. If Pittsburgh were to lure Schwarber on that kind of commitment, it would be a historic deal for the franchise. As Rosenthal points out, the club’s record free agent contract is $39MM to Francisco Liriano back in 2014. Cherington and his cohorts did give Bryan Reynolds a $100MM deal, though it was a contract extension.

Pittsburgh’s largest outlay in free agency last offseason was $5.25MM to Andrew Heaney. The club has spent more than $10MM just once this decade, giving Aroldis Chapman $10.5MM prior to the 2024 season. The Pirates haven’t handed out a multi-year contract in free agency since re-signing Ivan Nova for three years and $26MM ahead of the 2017 season. They also grabbed Daniel Hudson for two years and $11MM that offseason.

RosterResource has Pittsburgh’s payroll at $64MM for 2026. The team was at $87MM in each of the past two seasons. Nearly half of next year’s payroll will be going to Reynolds and Mitch Keller, who signed a five-year, $77MM extension in 2024.

A return to Philadelphia is among the most likely outcomes for Schwarber, though the two sides aren’t on the same page just yet. Boston, Baltimore, and San Francisco have also been mentioned as possible destinations. Cincinnati, Schwarber’s hometown team, is said to be in the mix.

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

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