The Phillies have agreed to a one-year deal with free agent outfielder Adolis Garcia, reports Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com. It’s still pending a physical. He’ll earn a guaranteed $10MM on the contract, per the report. Garcia is represented by Octagon.
More to come.
9:39am: Bell’s 2026 salary will be $5.5MM, per Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. He also receives a $250K signing bonus, and there’s a $1.25MM buyout on the mutual option.
9:25am: The Twins and free agent first baseman Josh Bell are reportedly in agreement on a one-year, $7MM contract that contains a mutual option for the 2027 campaign. Bell is represented by the Boras Corporation.
Bell, 33, has been at least an average bat in every season of his decade-long MLB career, with the exception of a poor showing in the shortened 2020 campaign. At times, the former second-round pick and top prospect has looked on the cusp of breaking out as a star-level slugger — most notably in 2019 and 2021 — but he’s never quite produced as the steady power bat one might expect from a hulking 6’3″, 260-pound first baseman.
That’s largely due to the switch-hitting Bell’s penchant for hitting the ball on the ground. Despite his sizable frame and clearly plus raw power, Bell has struggled to maintain a swing path that allows him to elevate the ball. He’s cut his grounder rate in recent seasons, to be fair; last year’s 45.7% mark was actually the second-lowest of his career, ahead of only the 44% mark he posted during a 37-homer campaign back in 2019. However, that 45.7% mark was still well above the 41.8% league average. For a hitter like Bell, whose average sprint speed ranked in just the seventh percentile of big league position players, per Statcast, that much contact on the ground is a clear detriment.
When Bell does elevate the ball, he does so with tremendous authority. Statcast ranked his 96.4 mph average exit velocity on liners/fly-balls 25th among 251 qualified hitters. Bell’s isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) of .507 on fly-balls isn’t elite but is well north of the .436 league average. He popped 22 round-trippers this past season and has averaged 26 homers per 162 games over the past seven seasons — despite his proclivity for hitting the ball into the ground. It’s long been thought that if Bell could consistently elevate the ball, he’d be a high-end slugger, but six teams have now tried to get him to do so consistently and been unable to make it happen.
The end result is typically above-average but not elite offense. Bell hit .237/.325/.417 this past season with the Nationals. His 10.7% walk rate was comfortably north of average and roughly in line with his career 11.2% mark. His 16.5% strikeout rate was the second-lowest of his career. Bell had uncharacteristic struggles with his right-handed swing last season but has traditionally been a solid hitter from both sides of the dish (albeit with better production from the left side). His 90.4 mph average exit velocity and 47% hard-hit rate were his best marks since a strong 2021 season (also spent with the Nats).
The Twins and their fans can perhaps find some optimism in the trajectory of Bell’s 2025 season. He was one of the worst hitters in either league through the end of April but busted out of that slump with a huge showing in May. He took a step back in June and then delivered terrific production over the final three months of the year. Setting aside Bell’s awful first 125 plate appearances of the season (when he had a bloated 50% grounder rate, it should be noted), he hit .278/.358/.462 with 17 homers, 16 doubles, an 11.1% walk rate and a 14.6% strikeout rate. In 250 plate appearances from July 2 onward, he slashed .284/.371/.486 (with a ground-ball rate sitting at 42%).
That’ll be the sort of production for which the Twins hope in 2025. Bell figures to be the primary first baseman for new manager Derek Shelton, who briefly overlapped with Bell during his first season as manager in Pittsburgh. Like most teams, the Twins don’t have a set designated hitter, so Bell could get some looks there, too, if the Twins want to free up some first base time to get Edouard Julien or Kody Clemens into the lineup there. Some additional DH reps for Bell would benefit the team defensively; he posted solid grades at first base back in 2021-22, but Bell has been dinged for -20 Defensive Runs Saved and -16 Outs Above Average over his past 1551 innings in the field. He’s not a skilled defender.
Even with those defensive shortcomings, Bell adds a legitimate bat to the middle of Minnesota’s order. He’s a durable veteran, having appeared in 91.5% of his teams’ possible games dating back to his first season as a full-time regular. That’s an average of better than 148 games per year, and it’s reasonable to expect at least 20 home runs based on his track record, with 25 to 30 not out of the question depending on the extent to which he can avoid falling into another grounder-heavy malaise.
Bell joins Byron Buxton, breakout rookie Luke Keaschall and catcher Ryan Jeffers in the top portion of a Twins lineup that’ll hope for better results from talented but inconsistent young hitters like Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner, Brooks Lee and (if he’s not traded) Trevor Larnach. Top prospects Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Kaelen Culpepper could force their way into the mix next season. Alan Roden will get another chance to prove his big Triple-A production can play in the majors, too.
The signing of Bell only reinforces the fact that despite a deadline fire sale, the Twins are intent on adding back to the roster in an effort to be as competitive as possible in 2026. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey plans to hold onto stars like Buxton, Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez rather than trade them. The Twins were reportedly shopping in the middle tiers of the free agent market at first base, and they’ll presumably use some of the modest budgetary space granted by ownership to add some low-cost relievers as well.
Bell adds $5.75MM to the 2026 payroll, boosting the Twins just north of $100MM in the process, per RosterResource. An exact payroll target isn’t known, but Falvey, GM Jeremy Zoll and the rest of the front office should still have a bit of leeway to help deepen the bullpen and perhaps the bench. Given that the Twins shipped out a stunning five relievers at July’s deadline, it seems fair to presume they’ll bring in multiple arms (though they already added one with November’s acquisition of Eric Orze from Tampa Bay).
Overall, payroll will still be down considerably from last year’s $142MM Opening Day mark and certainly from 2023’s franchise-record $153MM. Major additions on either side of the ball shouldn’t be expected. If the Twins compete next season, it’ll be due to big steps forward from in-house talents like Lee, Keaschall, Jenkins, Roden, Taj Bradley, Mick Abel and others. If they fall short of contending in a perennially competitive AL Central, then players like Bell and any of the forthcoming bullpen acquisitions could emerge as trade chips alongside Ryan, Lopez, Jeffers and others.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that the two sides had agreed to a one-year deal with a mutual option. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the $7MM guarantee.
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With one free agent move already in the books this morning, here are three more things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:
1. Will the rotation market heat up?
After weeks of a relatively frozen rotation market, things finally started to pick up this weekend when the Cardinals signed Dustin May to a one-year deal while the Diamondbacks reunited with Kelly on a pact worth $40MM over two years. The top of the market is still largely untouched (aside from Dylan Cease), leaving plenty of viable options for interested teams like Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai, and Ranger Suarez. The middle tier of this year’s market could be moving more quickly, by contrast, with Kelly having now signed and plenty of buzz surrounding other mid-market players like Zac Gallen and Michael King. Who could be the next domino to fall?
2. Relief market dwindling fast:
The market for relief pitching has been by far the fastest moving of the winter so far, and that didn’t change this weekend. Kenley Jansen and Tyler Rogers both came off the board as the former inked a one-year pact with the Tigers while the latter landed with Toronto on a three-year deal. Precious few high-end relief arms remain available at this point, with Brad Keller and Pete Fairbanks standing out as the best of the rest. There are still some very interesting candidates who could be had on one-year deals due to age. That’s a group that includes right-hander Chris Martin, who reportedly plans to pitch in 2026 in his age-40 season.
3. Mets fill first base in unorthodox fashion; what’s next?
Mets fans are still reeling from the loss of Pete Alonso to the Orioles at this year’s Winter Meetings, but president of baseball operations David Stearns wasted no time in getting a deal done with another veteran bat who’ll effectively take his spot in the lineup. Switch-hitter Jorge Polanco inked a two-year deal to come to Queens over the weekend, and despite spending most of his big league career as a second baseman, he’ll reportedly be used primarily at first base and DH with the Mets. Polanco’s a quality addition to the lineup, to be sure, but he lacks the power potential that Alonso brought to the table on such a consistent basis. Will the Mets look to supplement that lost power with a big bat in the outfield or at third base? Is there a big move in store on the pitching side of things?
The Diamondbacks are in the final stages of completing a two-year, $40MM contract with right-hander Merrill Kelly, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal will be official once Kelly passes a physical (as per Jon Heyman of The New York Post). Arizona will need to clear a space on its currently full 40-man roster. Kelly is represented by Apex Baseball.
The 37-year-old Kelly returns to the team with which he has spent nearly his entire major league career. Though initially drafted by the Rays in the eighth-round of the 2010 draft, Kelly made his big league debut with the Diamondbacks back in 2019 after a four-season stay in Korea as a member of the KBO’s SK Wyverns (now known as the SSG Landers). After a pedestrian rookie campaign in the majors where he pitched to a league-average ERA in 32 starts, Kelly managed to fashion a role for himself as one of the better mid-rotation arms in the majors.
Since the start of the 2022 campaign, Kelly has pitched to a 3.47 ERA in 108 starts. He’s struck out 23.1% of his opponents while walking 7.7% in that time, leaving him with a 3.81 FIP. Although a 4.03 SIERA and other so-so peripherals cast him as a step down from your prototypical front-end starter, the veteran has managed to remain a durable and productive rotation piece. Kelly particularly endeared himself to Arizona fans when he delivered a brilliant 2.25 ERA over 24 postseason innings during the club’s run to the World Series in 2023.
Amid a disappointing 2025 season where the Diamondbacks were ravaged by injuries to everyone from star closers Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk to newly-signed ace Corbin Burnes, the team engaged in a sell-off at trade deadline and shipped Kelly to the Rangers in exchange for a trio of pitching prospects. Kelly put up fairly pedestrian numbers across ten starts with the Rangers: a 4.23 ERA and near-matching 4.18 FIP across 55 1/3 innings of work.
Even while the veteran was in Texas, an offseason reunion with the Diamondbacks was already being speculated upon. Kelly spoke fondly of Arizona and expressed an openness to re-signing when asked about the possibility while the Rangers were visiting Chase Field in the season’s final few weeks. “Definite” interest in a reunion with Kelly was reported on Arizona’s side shortly before last week’s Winter Meetings, and now the sides have come together on a deal.
Turning to the deal itself, Kelly’s $40MM guarantee clocks in just ahead of the two years and $36MM MLBTR predicted for the right-hander when ranking him as the #25 free agent in this offseason’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. The Snakes were aggressive both in their offer and the timing of the deal; while the free agent market for position players and especially relievers has kicked into gear already, Kelly is just the third starting pitcher from MLBTR’s Top 50 to sign a contract this offseason. He joins Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce, both of whom received guarantees that slightly eclipsed MLBTR’s predictions.
Now that he’s set to return to Arizona, Kelly stands as the favorite to start for the Diamondbacks on Opening Day this year. He’ll join a rotation that already added Michael Soroka and will reunite with former teammates Eduardo Rodriguez, Brandon Pfaadt, and Ryne Nelson. Burnes could be a factor later in the season but is not expected to pitch until sometime in the second half after undergoing Tommy John surgery in June. While the team’s rotation certainly looks much more complete with Kelly back in the fold, bringing the right-hander back shouldn’t stop the team from pursuing other rotation additions after the club’s pitching staff finished 19th in the majors with a 4.29 ERA last year.
Of course, adding beyond this could prove to be easier said than done. The Diamondbacks are projected for a payroll just north of $171MM in 2026, according to RosterResource. That rises to north of $205MM for luxury tax purposes. GM Mike Hazen has suggested that, while Arizona’s payroll would likely be moving downward from its 2025 level, that would still leave the team with room to spend. The club spent $188MM on its payroll last season, however, meaning they currently sit less than $17MM from that mark.
Perhaps that leaves enough wiggle room to reunite with Paul Goldschmidt on an affordable one-year deal, a move the Diamondbacks have been said to be contemplating, but Kelly will surely go down as the team’s biggest expenditure unless an increase in payroll is approved or the team makes a trade that clears salary. To that latter point, the hot stove has been burning with Ketel Marte trade buzz in recent weeks. Moving Marte would certainly clear payroll off the books (and simultaneously add some young rotation options as part of the return), though Hazen has consistently downplayed the likelihood of a deal surrounding Marte actually coming together.
The Brewers and Royals officially announced the three-player trade (reported yesterday) that sent Isaac Collins and Nick Mears to Kansas City in exchange for Angel Zerpa. Brewers president of baseball operations Matt Arnold spoke to Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel about the trade today, and revealed the interesting detail that the club was “open to” the idea of Zerpa moving from the bullpen back to rotation work.
“We have some scouts that think he can do it. He has done it in the past,” Arnold said. “This guy also has postseason experience, too, which we obviously value a lot. Having a guy with that kind of versatility and experience in big games is something we think will really help us.”
As we’ve seen teams move away from traditional pitching roles in recent years, there has been an increased willingness to explore turning relievers (sometimes even career relievers) into starting pitchers. If clubs no longer expressly need their starters to throw more than five innings or take more than two turns through an opposing lineup, stretching a reliever out to handle this increased workload is more of a realistic goal than stretching a reliever to handle seven-plus innings.
Zerpa began his pro career as a starting pitcher, and worked as a starter in three of his first four career games in the majors (in 2021-22). He started only three of his 15 appearances for the Royals in 2023, however, and hasn’t since started a game in anything outside of an opener capacity. Instead, K.C. used Zerpa as a southpaw bullpen weapon, and the hurler posted a 4.03 ERA, 20.8% strikeout rate, 8.0% walk rate, and a whopping 60.6% groundball rate over 118 1/3 innings in 2024-25.
Right-handed hitters were quite productive against Zerpa even as he mostly dominated lefty swingers, and he allowed a lot of hard contact along with his uninspiring strikeout and walk numbers. Zerpa is a hard thrower whose fastball averaged 96.2mph in 2025, but his standard four-seamer hasn’t been very effective over the last two years, while his 96.6mph sinker is his top pitch. The slider was thrown 44.6% of the time in 2025, with a slider used 31.9% of the time and the four-seamer 19.8% of the time. As Hogg noted, increased usage of a changeup might be necessary to help the 26-year-old Zerpa adjust back to starting pitching.
It isn’t the kind of arsenal that immediately stands out as a rotation candidate, and it might be that Zerpa just winds up as a reliever if the Brewers decide against the role change in Spring Training. That said, the fact that the Brewers in particular see starting potential in Zerpa is probably a plus in favor of the experiment working. Milwaukee’s ability to turn unheralded pitchers into capable or even elite starters or relievers has been perhaps the key element of the team’s success over the last decade, so nobody should rule out the possibility that the Brew Crew could help Zerpa unlock another level of performance no matter his role.
Arnold said the Brewers had “been trying to access [in a trade] for a long time,” as “I think that our group felt like this was a really strong arm to access with really, really good ingredients. We’re very excited to get him with our coaches who have done a great job tapping into arms like this for a number of years.”
Zerpa is arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason, and is arb-controlled through the 2028 season. Because he has primarily operated as a non-closer, Zerpa’s first-year arbitration projection is only $1.2MM. This is a solid price tag even if the left-hander stays in the pen, but he can successfully move into the rotation, he’ll be even more of a bargain over Milwaukee’s period of team control.
One reason why Zerpa may remain in the Brewers’ pen is the club’s current rotation surplus. Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Quinn Priester, Chad Patrick, and Jacob Misiorowski line up as the projected starting five, and plenty of other starting candidates (i.e. Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser, Carlos Rodriguez, Tobias Myers) are depth options. The “you can never have too much pitching” mantra applies here since this group is likely to be naturally thinned out by injuries, plus Woodruff and Peralta are both set to become free agents next winter. As trade rumors persist about Peralta, it is even possible the Brewers could suddenly have a big hole atop their rotation this offseason.
Mark P
Giants fan
Mark P
Bloom
Mark P
CBA
Mark P
One thing I’d like to see in the next CBA is a longer-term agreement, so we only have to suffer through all of this depressing lockout talk every 6-7 years instead of every four years
Dave
Mark P
Motor City Beach Bum
Mark P
The link to Marte was a little odd since Gleyber will be back at 2B. I’d think Detroit fans wouldn’t be too enamored by Kim as the fallback plan to Bregman, but that might be as realistically big as it gets for Detroit on the position-player side
TODAY: “We are not shopping Corey Seager, I want to make that very clear,” Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young said today during an interview with MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM. Reiterating many of his same statements to media from earlier in the week, Young today said the trade buzz on Seager was “a little bit overblown,” as interest from rival teams was more in the line of standard due diligence. “Maybe they thought by trading Marcus [Semien], we’d be open on Corey….We call and check in on great players with other teams as well. So teams are doing their job, I get it,” Young said.
DECEMBER 10: The Rangers, as they look to address several areas of need on the roster while simultaneously scaling back payroll, have received numerous calls on star shortstop Corey Seager. However, while Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News lists the Red Sox (as was reported last night), Yankees and Braves as teams that have inquired, he adds that the Rangers are not at all motivated to move Seager and haven’t had any meaningful trade talks regarding the five-time All-Star.
On the surface, it sounds like a fairly similar situation to that of Ketel Marte in Arizona. Seager, like Marte, is an MVP-caliber talent on a weighty long-term contract whose current club is hoping to walk the line of simultaneously addressing multiple roster needs and scaling back the payroll. The Rangers aren’t expressly turning teams away but also aren’t shopping Seager and would surely need multiple controllable young big leaguers who could help immediately if they were to even entertain the idea of a trade.
Seager, 32 in April, was limited to 102 games last season thanks to multiple hamstring strains but continued to produce at an elite level when on the field. He hit .271/.373/.487 last season and touts a huge .294/.372/.544 batting line in his past 1514 plate appearances as a Ranger. That’s 52% better than league-average production after weighting for his home park, by measure of wRC+. Seager also walked at a career-best 13% clip in 2025 and notched the second- or third-best marks of his career in average exit velocity (92.9 mph), barrel rate (15.3%) and hard-hit rate (53.6%). He also posted a career-high 16 Defensive Runs Saved, while Statcast’s Outs Above Average credited him as a positive defender (+4) for the third time in the past four seasons.
The Rangers signed Seager to a 10-year, $325MM contract prior to the 2022 season. He’s lived up to that massive payday thus far but is still owed $186MM over the next six seasons (paid out evenly at $31MM per year). Adding that type of commitment would send the Yankees careening into the top tier of luxury penalization for a third straight season. They’re currently just shy of the third-tier cutoff ($284MM), per RosterResource. As soon as they cross that line, they’ll be subject to a 95% tax on subsequent additions and will see their top pick in next year’s draft dropped by 10 places. Effectively, Seager could cost them double the remaining commitment on his contract.
It’s not quite so extreme in Boston, where the Red Sox are about $20MM shy of the first luxury tier. Seager would push them into the first tier for a second straight season. They’d owe a 30% tax on the roughly $11MM of Seager’s contract that clocks in beyond that first penalty line. Once they’re more than $20MM over the limit, that’d jump to 42%. Crossing the threshold by more than $40MM would push the Red Sox’ top draft pick back 10 spots and bump the tax on subsequent additions to 72.5%.
The Braves are currently the furthest of this group from the luxury tax threshold, sitting about $33MM shy on RosterResource’s projections. They could technically add Seager without hitting the tax line, though acquiring him would effectively signal a willingness to pay the tax, as they’d be about $2MM away from the first-tier cutoff and have several other acquisitions they’d like to make. However, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported last month that Atlanta is one of eight teams on Seager’s limited no-trade list. That only further reduces the likelihood of a deal. Seager will gain full no-trade protection after the 2026 season, by virtue of 10-and-5 rights.
It’s still not entirely clear what type of payroll figure Rangers ownership has in mind. Texas currently projects for a payroll around $169MM, which is about $47MM shy of last year’s Opening Day mark. They’re looking for help behind the plate, at first base and on the pitching staff. That’s a lot of boxes to check, clearly, but there should be at least some room for modest spending. There are also various trade avenues to explore that don’t involve shipping out their best all-around position player (or one of their best but expensive arms like Jacob deGrom or Nathan Eovaldi, for that matter).
It’s of at least moderate note that Texas didn’t outright dismiss the possibility of trading Seager, but it’s more notable that they’re not digging deeply into the possibility. If one of the interested parties presents a compelling enough offer, perhaps the Rangers would ponder such a switch, but this appears to be a very different scenario than, say, the Cardinals — a rebuilding club with motivation to shed several veteran contracts and a willingness to pay down some of that salary. Seager’s name may well continue to surface in rumors, just as we’ve seen with Marte in Arizona or Tarik Skubal in Detroit, but that doesn’t mean he’s all that available or that the Rangers are eager to deal him.
It’s been a pretty quiet offseason so far in the Bay Area, though the Giants have at least been linked to several notable trade candidates and free agents. The San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser adds another big name to the list, writing that the Giants “have checked in on” Cody Bellinger.
While Bellinger’s ability to play first base probably wouldn’t be a factor for a team with Rafael Devers and Bryce Eldridge lined up for first base/DH duty, Bellinger would slot perfectly into the Giants’ vacancy in right field. San Francisco could also slide Bellinger into left field or center field on occasion, depending on how Heliot Ramos or Jung Hoo Lee are deployed. Bellinger is more of a serviceable center field candidate than a true regular, but he is a strong defender in the corners — his work as a left fielder and right fielder for the Yankees in 2025 earned +15 Defensive Runs Saved and +6 Outs Above Average.
Bellinger’s bat would also be a nice fit in the Giants’ lineup, as the 30-year-old is coming off a 125 wRC+ season (29 home runs, .272/.334/.480 in 656 plate appearances) in New York. Bellinger hit far better at Yankee Stadium than he did on the road, which could be a concern for the Giants if Bellinger was playing his home games at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. On the plus side, the left-handed hitting Bellinger hits both right-handed and left-hand pitchers well, and he has been one of the harder batters in the sport to strike out over the last three seasons.
The Giants have been linked to Bellinger a couple of times during his past forays into free agency, though that was back when Farhan Zaidi was in charge of San Francisco’s front office. Current president of baseball operations Buster Posey was still on the team’s board of directors at the time, and of course Posey has plenty of on-field experience in facing off against Bellinger back during Bellinger’s days as a staple of the Dodgers lineup. Posey has also done business with another Scott Boras client in Matt Chapman, as Posey was instrumental in getting Chapman’s extension finalized late in the 2024 season.
It is possible the Giants’ call on Bellinger might have been routine due diligence, or just to test the waters to gauge Bellinger’s interest in coming to San Francisco. The larger question, of course, is whether or not the Giants are willing to meet Bellinger’s asking price. MLB Trade Rumors projected the former NL MVP (who ranked eighth on our top 50 free agents list) for a five-year, $140MM contract, as Boras is surely looking to finally land the guaranteed long-term deal that eluded Bellinger during the 2023-24 offseason.
Giants team chairman Greg Johnson has been openly wary over long-term contracts in general, particularly for pitchers. Bellinger being a position player might mean the Giants would be more open to signing him to a big contract, yet the team already has a lot of money invested in Devers, Chapman, Lee, and Willy Adames through at least the 2029 season.
For as many holes as San Francisco has in its lineup, starting pitching is a more glaring need, as the Giants have only Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, and Landen Roupp lined up for rotation spots. If the Giants are truly hesitant about heavy investments in starting pitchers, they could look to address their rotation needs via trade, and perhaps use any free agent dollars to sign a prominent position player (like Bellinger).
The Yankees have been the team most directly linked to Bellinger’s services, as New York was known to be prioritizing a known quantity in Bellinger ahead of other top targets like Kyle Tucker. The Mets, Angels, Blue Jays, and Phillies have also reportedly shown interest in Bellinger this winter, though Philadelphia is probably a less likely suitor now that Kyle Schwarber has re-signed.
TODAY: The Phillies also had recent interest in Robert, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon, continuing Philadelphia’s explorations in a Robert deal back at the trade deadline. Robert’s right-handed bat would be a nice complement to lefty-swingers Brandon Marsh and Justin Crawford in the Philadelphia outfield, and having an experienced center field option like Robert provides the Phillies cover if Crawford isn’t quite ready for prime time as he makes his MLB debut.
DECEMBER 13: Last month, the White Sox picked up their $20MM option on Luis Robert Jr. General manager Chris Getz signaled that the club planned on Robert being their starting center fielder in 2026. That has not stopped clubs from inquiring on his availability in trade talks, as Francys Romero of Beisbol FR reports that the Mets, Padres, and Pirates have expressed interest in acquiring Robert.
The 28-year-old batted .223/.297/.364 with an 84 wRC+ across 110 games for the White Sox this year. His first half was particularly brutal, as he only hit .185/.270/.313 with a 63 wRC+ in 70 games through June 25, when he incurred a left hamstring strain that would send him to the injured list a few days later. Robert was striking out in 30.9% of his plate appearances, only marginally improved from his 33.2% rate last year. He did have a 10.2% walk rate, but for the most part, he was continuing an offensive decline that started with an 84 wRC+ season in 2024.
His second half was a clear improvement. Robert returned from the IL on July 8 and batted .293/.349/.459 with a 124 wRC+ in his next 146 plate appearances. After experiencing poor batted ball luck in the first half of the season (.245 BABIP), he benefited from positive regression upon his return (.317 BABIP). He also dropped his strikeout rate to 16.4% in the second half, bringing that mark down to 26.0% on the season. His rebound was enough for the White Sox to hold onto Robert at the deadline, despite interest from several clubs. Unfortunately, he suffered another left hamstring strain and was placed on the IL in late August, which ultimately ended his season.
The end result was a season worth 1.3 WAR according to FanGraphs. Looking at the bigger picture, it’s clear that Robert has fallen from the height of his 2023 season, when he posted a 129 wRC+ and hit 38 home runs in a career-high 145 games while earning an All-Star nod. That was the fourth season of a six-year, $50MM extension that Robert had signed in January 2020, which was then a record for a player who had not yet debuted in the majors. Robert’s production from 2020-23 made it look like a good deal, but his drop-off in 2024-25 (second-half rebound notwithstanding) made the $20MM club option for 2026 look a lot more expensive.
In the end, the team picked up the option in lieu of paying Robert a $2MM buyout. On the surface, that $18MM net amount was a lot for an injury-prone player who had posted below-average offense for two years, especially for a rebuilding club. The move may have been motivated by the lack of standout center fielders in free agency. Trent Grisham had a strong year in 2025 but accepted the qualifying offer rather than test the market. Cody Bellinger is still available, but he is a corner outfielder at this stage of his career. Harrison Bader is an exceptional defender and will do well on a multi-year deal, although his career-best offensive showing in 2025 was partly the product of good batted ball fortune (.359).
The club is hoping that Robert will have a decent offensive showing in 2026, which would make him a solid trade candidate at next year’s deadline. Still, it’s not surprising to see teams doing their due diligence now, despite Getz’s earlier comments. Eight teams were interested in Robert at this year’s deadline, including the Mets and Padres. The Mets mostly used Tyrone Taylor in center in 2025, but he only posted a 70 wRC+ in 341 plate appearances. They attempted to upgrade by trading for Cedric Mullins, but he himself posted a 66 wRC+ in 143 plate appearances and departed for the Rays in free agency. The club has prospect Carson Benge knocking on the door. A trade for Robert would be affordable for a high-payroll club and would give them an everyday center fielder if they want to ease Benge into the majors.
The Padres and Pirates are more curious fits. The former has Jackson Merrill firmly entrenched in center. He is coming off a 3.0 fWAR season and signed an extension in April that will guarantee him $135MM through 2034. Robert could be an upgrade at DH, but that wouldn’t be the best use of him since he is still a solid defender, posting 7 OAA in center in 2025. RosterResource currently pegs San Diego for a $201MM payroll in 2026, compared to $211MM this year. Team chairman John Seidler recently indicated that the team will operate at around the same level of payroll. They would need the White Sox to cover at least half of Robert’s salary to facilitate an offseason trade, and that’s before leaving room for other additions.
Meanwhile, the Pirates have shown an increased willingness to spend this offseason. They made an $80MM offer to Josh Naylor and were willing to pay Kyle Schwarber $120-$125MM before he re-upped with the Phillies. That said, Robert is obviously not on the same level as Naylor or Schwarber. Pittsburgh also has Oneil Cruz under control through 2028. Like Robert, Cruz had a below-average offensive showing in 2025 (86 wRC+), but Cruz is much more affordable, with a projected $3.6MM salary in his first turn through arbitration compared to Robert’s guaranteed $20MM. Pittsburgh may just be doing their due diligence, though the likeliest outcome is that Robert stays put in Chicago through the offseason.
Photo courtesy of Matt Marton, Imagn Images
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