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Cubs To Sign Alex Bregman

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January 11: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that $70MM of Bregman’s $175MM contract is deferred. Rosenthal adds that the deal is expected to fall into the $30MM to $31MM range in terms of average annual value after factoring in the deferrals.

January 10: With most of Chicago focused on the Cardiac Bears Saturday night, the Cubs attempted to steal a little bit of the spotlight by agreeing to a five-year, $175MM contract with free agent Alex Bregman.  In doing so, the Cubs land MLBTR’s fifth-ranked free agent to take over at the hot corner.

Bregman, a client of the Boras Corporation, bests the contract offers he received last offseason.  His new contract, the third-largest in Cubs history, includes a no-trade clause but lacks opt-outs. The deal also includes deferred money, although the specifics of those deferrals are not yet known.

When last offseason’s proposals fell short of Bregman’s expectations, he pivoted to a heavily-deferred three-year, $120MM deal with the Red Sox.  The quality of his 2025 season, plus his ineligibility for a qualifying offer this time around, led to this long-term deal.

MLBTR projected a six-year, $160MM contract for Bregman back in November, which he managed to top on a five-year term. Though a sixth year would’ve been a rarity for a player set to turn 32 in March, the five-year length results in a hefty $35MM average annual value.  That’s easily the highest AAV in Cubs history, and it’s tied for 14th all-time. The deferred money in the contract figures to bring the AAV down somewhat, however.

For the Cubs, the addition of Bregman is the biggest splash in an active offseason. The club acquired young starter Edward Cabrera from the Marlins three days ago, adding upside to the rotation at the expense of a top-50 prospect in Owen Caissie. The Cubs have largely rebuilt their bullpen with a quintet of free agent signings: Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Caleb Thielbar, Hoby Milner, and Jacob Webb.  They also retained swingman Colin Rea and starter Shota Imanaga.

Bregman gives the Cubs a major offensive upgrade without the loss of a draft pick, as he rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros in 2024. His salary brings the team’s projected 2026 payroll to $231MM, a full $25MM over last year’s $206MM figure, according to RosterResource. Meanwhile, their CBT payroll stands at $247.6MM for 2026, putting the Cubs $3.6MM above the first luxury tax threshold.  The Cubs did not exceed the CBT in 2025, so they’ll reside in the lightest tax bracket if they stay over in ’26.

Bregman, 31, played in 114 games with Boston this year, making 495 plate appearances. Although he missed a month and a half with a right quad strain, he continued to excel on offense, batting .273/.360/.462 and grading out 25% better than average by wRC+. After posting a career-low 6.9% walk rate in his final year with the Astros, Bregman bumped that up to 10.3% in 2025. He maintained his reputation as a high-contact hitter, with his 14.1% strikeout rate grading out in the 88th percentile. His 90.1 mph average exit velocity and 44.4% hard-hit rate were both career bests. He also continued to perform well defensively, earning 3 Outs Above Average for his work at third base. Overall, Bregman’s 2025 contributions were good for 3.5 fWAR and his third career All-Star nomination.

A lot of that came from his red-hot first two months. At the time of his injury, Bregman had a 156 wRC+ through 226 PA. His production following his return was more uneven. He posted a 128 wRC+ in July, followed by a 108 wRC+ in August and just a 76 wRC+ in September. In the first half, Bregman was 52% better than average by wRC+. In the second half, he was right around average.

Though he wasn’t his usual self in the last two months of the year, Bregman’s lengthy track record still made him one of the top free agents in this year’s class. Since debuting with the Astros in 2016, he has batted .272/.365/.481 with 209 home runs and a 133 wRC+. His first two All-Star appearances came in 2018-19. Bregman averaged 8.1 fWAR and finished in the Top 5 in AL MVP voting in both years, finishing as the runner-up in 2019.

While he hasn’t reached those heights in the years since, Bregman has still been a well-above-average hitter. He has posted a wRC+ between 117 and 137 in every year from 2020-25. Bregman’s defense has also held firm. Since the start of 2020, he has been worth 10 DRS and 17 OAA. He ranks eighth among qualified third basemen in that span by OAA.

That track record, Bregman’s excellent clubhouse reputation, and his still-excellent 2025 drew ample interest in free agency. The Red Sox were clearly keen on a reunion, with recent reports indicating they had made him an “aggressive” offer. Outside of them and the Cubs, his known suitors included the Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays (before they signed Kazuma Okamoto). The Tigers and Cubs were interested in Bregman last offseason as well. Detroit reportedly offered him six years and $171.5MM, albeit with significant deferrals. Chicago’s offer was in the four-year, $115MM range. One year later, the Cubs committed an additional $60MM to lock Bregman up.

Bregman likely sought a $200MM guarantee during the 2024-25 offseason, and even accounting for the deferred money in this year’s $40MM salary, the straight $175MM from the Cubs means he’s cleared that bar.  It’s a strategy we’ve seen Boras execute successfully with Bregman, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, and Pete Alonso in recent years, with Cody Bellinger serving as the next test case.

With Bregman slotting in at third base, the most impacted player on the Cubs’ roster is incumbent third baseman Matt Shaw. As a rookie, Shaw posted a .226/.295/.394 line in 437 plate appearances, good for a 93 wRC+. Factoring in his serviceable defense (-1 DRS), Shaw was worth 1.5 fWAR in 2025. That was acceptable production for the rookie and former top prospect, though there are clear areas for improvement heading into his sophomore season. Shaw’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rate ranked in the third and seventh percentiles, respectively. He also struggled against fastballs, with a -6 run value against sinkers and a -1 value against four-seamers.

Shaw came up through the system as a middle infielder before shifting to third base in earnest in 2024. At present, Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner occupy the shortstop and second base spots on the big-league roster. Swanson is under contract through 2029 and won’t be moving off short any time soon. Hoerner has been an above-average hitter and excellent defender in the past four seasons, tallying 17.5 fWAR.  Hoerner moved to second base in 2023 in deference to Swanson.

With the 28-year-old Hoerner eligible for free agency after 2026 – with earning power likely to get a boost from his ability to play shortstop – his name has surfaced in trade rumors this winter.  The best 2026 Cubs team has Hoerner at second base and Shaw in a utility infield role, but it’s at least conceivable that either player could be dealt this offseason.

For Red Sox fans, the past seven months have provided a painful sequence of events at third base.  Rafael Devers was dealt to the Giants in a surprise June blockbuster, and now Bregman has departed as well.  The Red Sox, the only team yet to have signed a Major League free agent this winter, could turn to Bo Bichette if they don’t consider Marcelo Mayer sufficient at third.  Bichette has never played third base, however, and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has yet to sign a free agent for more than Bregman’s three years (which only lasted one).

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first broke news of the signing, with ESPN’s Jeff Passan adding terms and Bob Nightengale of USA Today providing further details. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the deal includes deferred money.

Dodgers To Sign Andy Ibáñez

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Jan. 10: Ibáñez’s deal is for $1.2MM, according to Romero. He can also earn up to $100k in performance bonuses.

Jan. 9: The Dodgers have signed infielder Andy Ibáñez to a major league deal, reports Francys Romero of BeisbolFR. The salary has not yet been reported. The Dodgers have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to make this deal official. Ibáñez is represented by The Movement Baseball.

Ibáñez, 33 in April, was just non-tendered by the Tigers in November. He had spent three years with Detroit in a utility role. He got into 304 games over that span, stepping to the plate 820 times. He produced a combined batting line of .251/.304/.392, which translated to a wRC+ of 93. While that offense was a bit below average, Ibáñez provided a lot of defensive versatility. He played all four infield spots as well as the outfield corners.

That wasn’t enough to keep him in Detroit for 2026. He exhausted his final option year in 2025, meaning he will be out of options going forward. He had qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player. The Tigers paid him $1.4MM in 2025. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a raise to $1.8MM this year but Detroit didn’t tender him a contract, sending him to free agency instead.

The Dodgers have a relatively older infield group. Shortstop Mookie Betts is 33 years old and was a full-time outfielder not long ago. 36-year-old Freddie Freeman is at first base and 35-year-old Max Muncy is at the other corner. Getting a semi rest day in the designated hitter slot isn’t really an option thanks to the presence of Shohei Ohtani.

Second base is a bit more fluid. Tommy Edman, Hyeseong Kim, Miguel Rojas and Alex Freeland are options for that spot. Rojas will be turning 37 years old soon. Edman isn’t quite as old, turning 31 in May, but is coming off ankle surgery. Kim can play other positions around the diamond. Freeland is a notable prospect for the club and still optionable, so perhaps it makes sense for him to be getting regular playing time in Triple-A if he doesn’t have an everyday job in the majors.

Ibáñez will give the club another multi-positional guy on the bench who can bounce around as needed, depending on who else is healthy and producing. If he has a good season with the Dodgers, he can be retained beyond 2026 via arbitration. Rojas has already said that he will retire after this year, so that’ll be one less guy in the mix for 2027 and beyond. Muncy is also slated for free agency a season from now but the Dodgers will presumably come up with some plan for third base in the next year, whether that’s bringing back Muncy or some alternative.

Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images

Reds Sign Michael Toglia To Minor League Deal

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The Reds have added first baseman Michael Toglia on a minor league deal, according to his MLB transactions log. The 27-year-old was non-tendered by the Rockies in late November. Toglia split the 2025 season between Triple-A and the majors.

Toglia had the makings of a viable three-true-outcomes bat following the 2024 campaign. He popped 25 home runs in 116 games while walking at a strong 11.8% clip. The power and patience came with a 32.1% strikeout rate, but the end result was a passable 98 wRC+. Toglia’s shaky contact skills cratered to begin this past season. He posted a 39.1% strikeout rate in the first two months of the year, earning a demotion. He bounced up and down between the big-league club and the Isotopes for the rest of the season.

Colorado took Toglia in the first round of the 2019 draft. He flashed big power at every level of the minors, though it came with concerning swing-and-miss tendencies. Toglia debuted with the club in 2022, playing sparingly that season and the next. He totaled six home runs over his first 76 games. The 2024 breakout was closer to what Toglia had shown in the minors, particularly with the free passes. He had a walk rate of at least 12% at every minor league stop before his promotion. It hadn’t reached 8% in his first two MLB stints.

Toglia has shown the ability to do real damage when he makes contact. He ranked in the 98th percentile in barrel rate and the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate in 2024. The contact just hasn’t come consistently enough. Toglia’s had a whiff rate above 33% in all four MLB seasons. He had the fourth-lowest contact rate among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances last year.

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

Yankees, Cody Bellinger “At An Impasse” In Negotiations

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The Yankees’ attempt to reunite with free agent Cody Bellinger seems to have hit a wall. ESPN’s Buster Olney reports the two sides are “at an impasse.” New York is moving forward as if Bellinger is signing with another team and will look to make additions elsewhere, adds Olney.

Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reported on Thursday that the Yankees had an offer in to Bellinger for more than $30MM a year. Olney reiterated that figure, while also mentioning that the proposal on the table was for five years. Bellinger and his team (he’s a Boras Corporation client) have been pursuing a deal for seven years, while reports had New York preferring something in the four-to-five range.

A contract of five years at more than $30MM per season would be right in line with the deals inked by the top free agent bats this offseason. Pete Alonso got five years and $155MM from Baltimore. Kyle Schwarber returned to Philadelphia on a five-year, $150MM deal. The length of New York’s most recent reported offer would be an obvious sticking point for Bellinger’s camp, given their known preferences, but Olney added that they’re also looking to do better than the $30MM AAV.

Bellinger seemed to be New York’s main priority this offseason. Kyle Tucker is the premier hitter on the market, but reports suggested he was the Yankees’ backup plan to Bellinger. The club was only recently linked to Bo Bichette and has not been significantly connected to Alex Bregman.

The now 30-year-old Bellinger excelled in his lone season in the Bronx. He slashed .272/.334/.480 with 29 home runs across 152 games. Bellinger made the most of the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, hitting .302 with 18 home runs at home. His OPS slipped by nearly 200 points on the road.

The Cubs were the most recent team to join the lengthy list of Bellinger suitors. The Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Angels, Blue Jays, and Phillies have all been connected to the free agent outfielder at various points this offseason. A return to Chicago would be fitting after the club twice gave Bellinger a home when the market went cold on him.

After the Dodgers cut ties with the 2019 NL MVP, the Cubs added him on a one-year, $17.5MM pact for 2023. Bellinger hit a career-high .307 and posted a 135 wRC+ in his first year in Chicago, but it wasn’t enough to garner a long-term deal from other teams the following offseason. The Cubs brought him back late in the winter on an opt-out-laden three-year deal. The club would ship him to the Yankees after just a season in what amounted to a salary dump, so maybe it isn’t a perfect homecoming.

Photo courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images

Red Sox Notes: Bregman, Outfield, Injuries

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Fenway Fest is in full swing. The fan event has yielded plenty of interesting tidbits through interviews with various players and executives. Here’s a rundown of some of the highlights, including a show of support for Alex Bregman from a former teammate and impressive candor from an infielder with an uncertain future.

A Bregman update, of course

Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow can’t seem to go a day without answering questions about the free agent third baseman. “We’re going to do everything we possibly can to add more offense,” Breslow told reporters, including Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald. “We saw the impact Alex (Bregman) had last year, on the field, in the clubhouse, in the community, someone that fits our team really well. He’s still out there, which means we have a chance.”

ESPN’s Buster Olney reported last weekend that the club has made an “aggressive” offer to Bregman. The Diamondbacks, Cubs, and Tigers have also been connected to the 31-year-old free agent. Bregman opted out of the three-year, $120MM contract he signed with the Red Sox last offseason in pursuit of a more lucrative deal. “The ball is in his court,” manager Alex Cora told reporters, including Chris Cotillo of MassLive.

It’s not just the front office looking to reunite with Bregman. Outfielder Roman Anthony expressed support, highlighting the work Bregman did with the young players. “I would love to have him back,” Anthony told reporters, including Starr. “He was … a huge part of my success. And a lot of the young guys, and not only the young guys, but many of the guys in the clubhouse … we’re all on the same page as to where we stand with him and what we hope happens.” Anthony specifically cited Bregman’s insights into preparation and offensive approach as beneficial to him in his rookie season.

Injuries limited Bregman to 114 games in his lone season in Boston, but he was quite productive when available. He slashed .273/.360/.462 with 18 home runs across 495 plate appearances. Bregman delivered his typical strong work with the glove at the hot corner. He earned his third All-Star selection.

Outfield trade sounds doubtful

Boston seemingly has four outfielders for three spots heading into the season. Anthony, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela have all shown enough to earn everyday roles. One of them could slot in at DH, but that would limit the playing time for Masataka Yoshida and Triston Casas. Despite the apparent glut at the position, along with rumors that Duran was drawing interest, Breslow shot down the notion that a trade was on the table.

“It was never likely in my mind,” Breslow told reporters, including Cotillo. “We’ve got really talented outfielders. When teams call, that’s what other executives point to. They’re young, they’re controllable, they’re dynamic, they’re talented, and can impact games in multiple ways. It’s really nice to be able to say they’re also members of the Boston Red Sox.”

Cora also provided additional context on the outfield plan, telling reporters he preferred Rafaela in center field and Abreu in right field, even against left-handed pitching. Breslow has previously expressed a desire to keep Rafaela in center field. He’s spent time at second base and shortstop over the past two seasons. Rafaela is a tremendous outfielder, earning Gold Glove honors for his efforts in center field this past season. Abreu also secured a Gold Glove in 2025, his second time receiving the award. He’ll likely be in the field when he plays. It’s the same-handed pitching remark that is interesting. The lefty-swinging Abreu had just 68 plate appearances against southpaws last season. He’s hit just .205 vs. lefties in his career.

If Cora gets his wish, with both Rafaela and Abreu regularly manning the outfield, Anthony and Duran would handle left field and DH. It’s hard to imagine former top prospect Anthony losing much playing time outside of the occasional rest day. Duran is coming off a modest 2025, but he was one of the top offensive forces in the league in 2024. It’ll be a lot for Cora to juggle next season without a roster move.

Injury updates

Casas is coming back from a ruptured patellar tendon in his right knee. He told reporters, including Christopher Smith of MassLive, that he’s uncertain if he’ll be ready for the start of the 2026 campaign. “As of right now, not too sure. Not trying to get ahead of myself, but I do see myself progressing well enough to maybe get into some spring training games. We’ll see how that goes because that’s a benchmark as well.”

Boston traded for Willson Contreras to handle first base, which leaves Casas’ role in question once he gets healthy. The aforementioned logjam in the outfield doesn’t help matters. Casas seems to be taking the Contreras addition in stride, though. “He’s a better player than me and has been for his entire career. To upgrade at a position that has been deficient for the last two years is exactly what the team needed.” (relayed by Cotillo)

A few more quick-hitters in the health department…

  • Marcelo Mayer expects to be fully ready for Spring Training. His 2025 season was cut short by a wrist injury in August. “I’m pretty much doing full baseball activity, like a normal ramp-up, as I would for a regular season going into spring training,” Mayer said.
  • Anthony is also expected to be good to go for the spring. An oblique injury cost him most of September and all of the postseason. The team believed he might have been able to return for the ALCS, but they were knocked out in the ALDS.
  • Kutter Crawford is on track to return to action for the first time since 2024. He missed all of last season with knee and wrist issues. “At this point, it’s just normal progression,” Crawford said. “I got off the slope yesterday, and it felt good. And now we just build up the mound progression.”
  • Carlos Narvaez had knee surgery at the start of the offseason, but told reporters (including Smith) he would be a full go come springtime.

Photo courtesy of John E. Sokolowski, Imagn Images

Cardinals To Sign Ryne Stanek

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January 10: Stanek will earn $3.5MM in 2026, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deal also includes a $6MM club option for 2027.

January 9: The Cardinals are in agreement with free agent reliever Ryne Stanek, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Chris Cotillo of MassLive first reported that St. Louis was pursuing the hard-throwing righty. The Cardinals will need to open a 40-man roster spot once the MVP Sports Group client completes a physical.

Stanek gets a change of scenery after an inconsistent year and a half with the Mets. New York acquired him from the Mariners at the 2024 trade deadline. While he allowed 11 runs in 16 1/3 regular season innings down the stretch, Stanek’s plus strikeout rate and strong postseason work led the Mets to bring him back on a $4.5MM free agent deal.

That didn’t pan out, as the 34-year-old had an up-and-down season. Stanek had strong run prevention marks in May and July but was knocked around in the other four months. He finished with a 5.30 earned run average across 56 innings. ERA estimators were only slightly more bullish as Stanek’s strikeout and walk rates each went in the wrong direction.

A 22.7% strikeout rate was narrowly the lowest of his nine-year career. Stanek had fanned nearly 28% of opposing hitters one season earlier. It’s crucial that he miss bats because command has never been a strong suit. Stanek has walked at least 10% of batters faced in all but one year, including a 12.5% mark last season.

The Cardinals are taking what should be a low-cost bet that he’ll strike out more batters in 2026. Stanek still has the stuff to do that. He averaged 98.5 MPH on his heater, a top 15 mark in MLB. He backs that up with a plus slider and mixes in a splitter and sweeper as his third and fourth offerings. Stanek still missed bats at a slightly above-average rate on a per pitch basis.

St. Louis doesn’t have a ton of experienced arms in the late innings. Southpaw JoJo Romero had been their only reliever with even two years of MLB service. There’s a decent chance he’s traded before Opening Day. The Cardinals were looking for a veteran arm who can pitch in the back half of the bullpen. Stanek fits best in middle relief but could be in the high-leverage mix, perhaps even as a closer, on a rebuilding club. He’s a known commodity to president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, who was in the Rays front office when Tampa Bay drafted him in the first round in 2013.

There’s also a geographic tie. Stanek was born in St. Louis and went to high school not far outside Missouri in Stilwell, Kansas. There’s a decent chance he’ll be traded midseason if he’s pitching well, but he’ll get a chance to play for his hometown club for at least a few months.

Image courtesy of Gregory Fisher, Imagn Images.

Latest On Yankees’ Pitching Search

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The Yankees were known to be one of the teams talking with the Marlins about a possible Edward Cabrera trade, but with Cabrera now in a Cubs uniform, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman reports that the Bronx Bombers are looking elsewhere for rotation help.  The NY Post’s Jon Heyman reiterates that the Yankees continue to have trade interest in the Brewers’ Freddy Peralta and the Nationals’ MacKenzie Gore, and the chances of a Tarik Skubal trade with the Tigers seems remote due to Detroit’s huge asking price.

As per offseason norms, the Yankees have been routinely connected to several major players on the free agent and trade markets, though the club has yet to swing a big transaction.  New York did bolster its pitching depth by re-signing Ryan Yarbrough and Paul Blackburn, but those aren’t the types of arms that would provide the certainty or the upside of a true front-of-the-rotation arm.

Sherman outlines the situation facing the Yankees’ rotation, as technically the team has enough starters between Max Fried, Luis Gil, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren, and Yarbrough to cover innings until Carlos Rodon is back from elbow surgery (in late April or early May), and Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt are back from Tommy John surgery.  Of course, any injuries to the healthy pitchers or setbacks for the injured pitchers could throw this entire plan awry, and Schmidt’s availability for any of the 2026 season isn’t a sure thing since he underwent his TJ procedure last July.

Bringing in not just a depth starter, but a pitcher that could conceivably start a playoff game would naturally be a nice boost to the rotation picture.  Such an addition provides cover against not just injuries, but (as Sherman notes) the possibility that Schlittler might struggle in his first full Major League season, or that Fried might feel some wear after a career-high 195 1/3 innings pitched in 2025.

Interestingly, almost all of the starting pitchers linked to the Yankees on the hot stove this offseason have been trade targets, rather than free agents.  Given how Cody Bellinger seemingly remains New York’s top overall priority, it would seem like the Yankees are allocating their free agent dollars in that direction….or perhaps towards another top-tier option like Bo Bichette if a deal can’t be reached with Bellinger.

While the Yankees were reportedly interested in Tatsuya Imai earlier this winter, Heyman writes that the team was looking at Imai more as a reliever than as a starting pitcher.  As such, the Yankees didn’t make Imai an offer, since presumably the bidding got beyond New York’s comfort range for a relief pitcher.  Imai’s market ended up being narrower than initially thought, and the righty ended up signing with the Astros on a three-year, $54MM deal that includes opt-outs after each of the first two seasons.

Heyman also provides some details on the Cabrera negotiations, as such New York prospects as right-hander Ben Hess and outfielder Dillon Lewis were mentioned, along with “a third lower-level prospect.”  It isn’t specified if these three players were all included in one offer to Miami, but the Marlins instead opted for the Cubs’ three-prospect mix of Owen Caissie, Cristian Hernandez and Edgardo De Leon.  The highly-regarded Caissie is the highest-ranked prospect of the group and he has already made his MLB debut, so he could be in Miami’s outfield as soon as Opening Day.  It is easy to see why the hitting-needy Marlins might’ve preferred Chicago’s offer, especially since the Yankees weren’t willing to include their own top hitting prospect in George Lombard Jr.

In what might be an interesting tidbit to file away for any future Yankees/Marlins trade talks, Heyman writes that “Miami loves the super talented Lewis,” a 13th-round pick in the 2024 draft who finished his first full season of pro ball at high-A Hudson Valley.  Baseball America ranks Lewis as the eighth-best prospect in New York’s farm system, with Hess clocking in fifth place.

Braves Re-Sign Tyler Kinley

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The Braves are bringing back right-hander Tyler Kinley on a one-year contract worth $4.25MM in guaranteed money, according to The Athletic’s Will Sammon and Ken Rosenthal. The deal breaks down as a $3MM salary for the 2026 season, and there is a $1.25MM buyout on a $5.5MM club option for the 2027 season. Kinley is represented by Paragon Sports International.

Atlanta declined its $5.5MM option on Kinley shortly after the season ended, opting to hand him a $750K buyout. The move was a bit of an eyebrow raiser at the time, considering the righty’s strong work once he joined the team, but it makes more sense now. The Braves get Kinley at a cheaper number while adding the ability to retain him in 2027.

The deal is indicative of Kinley’s impressive turnaround last season. The 34-year-old had an ugly 5.66 ERA in the first half with Colorado. It continued a troubling trend, as Kinley was coming off back-to-back seasons with an ERA over 6.00. Atlanta scooped him up at the trade deadline for a Double-A reliever. The Braves weren’t in contention, so acquiring Kinley was more about giving him an audition for 2026. The gambit paid off, as the veteran allowed just two earned runs in 24 appearances with the team.

Kinley often worked in high-leverage spots during his Rockies tenure. The role was given to him more out of necessity, not performance. Despite a 6.19 ERA in 2024, Kinley led the team with a dozen saves. He wrapped up his five-plus seasons in Colorado with a 5.05 ERA. Pitching half your games at Coors Field is no easy task, and Kinley’s underlying metrics were routinely better than his standard run prevention numbers. He had a SIERA close to or below 4.00 in each of his five full campaigns with the team. Kinley’s xERA was more than a run lower than his actual ERA on three occasions.

The Braves have already made several additions in the bullpen this offseason. The club re-signed Raisel Iglesias in mid-November, then doubled down by grabbing Robert Suarez in early December. Atlanta also brought back Joel Payamps and picked up veterans Ian Hamilton and Danny Young. Iglesias and Suarez are the clear 1-2 punch in the late innings, which likely leaves Kinley to pick up opportunities in the middle frames.

Orioles Notes: Henderson, Valdez, Astros

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Gunnar Henderson’s third full Major League season was another success, as the infielder hit .274/.349/.438 with 17 home runs over 651 plate appearances.  It was more or less a match for the 2023 season that earned Henderson AL Rookie of the Year honors — Henderson posted a 122 wRC+ and 4.7 fWAR that year, and a 120 wRC+ and 4.8 fWAR in 2025.

Last season’s numbers were, however, a step back from the 154 wRC+ and 7.9 fWAR Henderson delivered in 2024.  Henderson missed most of Spring Training and the first week of regular-season action recovering from an intercostal strain, but the shortstop revealed Thursday that he also spent about “three-quarters of the year” dealing with a heretofore unknown shoulder impingement.

In an interview on WBAL’s Orioles Hot Stove Show (hat tip to MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko), Henderson said “I just wasn’t able to hold the plane and my body was adjusting to it, not feeling great, so that didn’t really set up me in the right spot to leverage the ball like I normally do.”  Despite his solid production, Henderson “could never get to the spot that I wanted to get to with my swing, but no excuse.  Just had to play through it and felt like I still with all those circumstances put up a decent year.  Looking forward to being healthy this year and getting back to my normal self.”

The injury wasn’t serious enough to merit a trip to the injured list, or even any missed time, as Henderson played in 154 of 155 games after being activated from the IL on April 4.  Since the Orioles faded from contention pretty early in the season, the team certainly should’ve shut down Henderson or at least reduced his playing time if there was any real concern over his shoulder.

With Henderson now predicting good health for 2026, the shoulder impingement can probably just be written off as a yet another footnote within an injury-riddled season for the Orioles roster.  Getting the 2024 version of Henderson back would go a long way towards helping the O’s return to playoff contention after their disappointing 75-win campaign.

Having Framber Valdez in the rotation would also be a huge boost, and the possibility of a big rotation add remains alive since the Orioles have been linked to the free agent southpaw’s market.  This isn’t the first time Baltimore has looked to acquire Valdez, however, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon report that the left-hander was part of a four-player trade package the Astros were prepared to send to the O’s for Zack Britton at the 2017 trade deadline.

It was known at the time that a Britton trade fell apart at the last minute between the two sides, with the Orioles reportedly pulling out due to medical concerns over two of the players involved.  Houston’s side of the deal wasn’t known until now, as Rosenthal/Sammon report that the Astros were offering Valdez (then a somewhat unheralded Double-A prospect), J.D. Davis, Jason Martin, and Rogelio Armenteros for Britton, who was in the midst of an injury-shortened season but was arguably baseball’s best closer when healthy.

While initial reports said the Orioles took issue with the medical of both pitchers (Armenteros and Valdez) in the trade offer, Rosenthal/Sammon write that Baltimore’s issue was just with Armenteros.  Former Orioles owner Peter Angelos was somewhat notorious for his caution over pitcher health, leading to several trades or free agent signings that were renegotiated at the eleventh hour, or abandoned altogether.

Armenteros’ MLB career ended up consisting of five appearances for the Astros in 2019 and he missed the entire 2020 season due to surgery to remove a bone spur from his throwing elbow.  In this context, it’s hard to say the Orioles were incorrect in their concern, though Arementeros ended up being the least-accomplished of the four players Houston offered.  Beyond just Valdez, Davis became a very productive infielder once the Astros traded him to the Mets during the 2018-19 offseason, and that breakout could’ve very well happened in Baltimore rather than in New York.  Martin’s MLB career consisted of 85 games with the Pirates and Rangers from 2019-21, but Martin was one of the four players the Astros sent to Pittsburgh for Gerrit Cole prior to the 2018 season.

The Astros went onto win the 2017 World Series anyway without Britton, and Valdez ended up being a cornerstone piece of the team’s success over the last decade.  While Houston’s front office (which included current Orioles president of baseball ops Mike Elias at the time) was surely irritated when the Orioles pulled the plug on the Britton trade, the team came out on top in the long run, and it’s another example of how you just never know which prospect might end up as the key figure of a trade package.

In fairness to the O’s, there wasn’t much indication at the time that Valdez would turn into a frontline starter, and it is possible Valdez wouldn’t have developed as well as he did in Baltimore’s organization rather than in Houston.  The 2017 season was the first of five straight losing seasons for the Orioles as they entered a rebuilding period under Elias, and it is interesting to wonder how having Valdez (and Davis) around might’ve changed the trajectory of that rebuild.

Rockies Acquire Jake McCarthy From Diamondbacks

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The Rockies have acquired outfielder Jake McCarthy from the Diamondbacks in exchange for right-handed pitching prospect Josh Grosz.  Both teams have officially announced the trade.

Selected 39th overall by the D’Backs in the 2018 draft, McCarthy’s tenure in Arizona has been marked by trade rumors and flashes of potential.  McCarthy’s first full MLB season in 2022 saw him finish fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting, off a .283/.342/.427 slash line, eight homers, and 23 steals in 26 attempts over 354 trips to the plate.  This translated to a 116 wRC+, but McCarthy’s production then drastically tailed off to a 78 wRC+ during the 2023 season, and he wasn’t involved in any of Arizona’s playoff rosters during the team’s run to the NL pennant.

The pendulum swung again in 2024 when McCarthy played in a career-high 142 games, and hit .285/.349/.400 with eight homers and 25 stolen bases over 495 PA.  This past season, McCarthy had only a 60 wRC+ from a slash line of .204/.247/.345 over 222 PA, and he spent two months in Triple-A in a fruitless attempt to get his bat on track.

With a 431-game sample size to work with, McCarthy’s strengths and weaknesses are clear.  He can play all three outfield positions at least passably well, and he is one of the very fastest players in baseball, ranking in no lower than the 98th percentile of speed since his debut in the Show.  McCarthy makes a lot of contact, yet with very little hard contact or power, leaving him somewhat at the mercy of batted-ball luck.

Coming up as one of several left-handed hitting outfielders in the Diamondbacks farm system, McCarthy has been a trade candidate for years.  During the 2023-24 offseason, the White Sox were reportedly given the option of acquiring either McCarthy or Dominic Fletcher in exchange for Cristian Mena, and Chicago opted to go with Fletcher.  It is easy to second-guess the D’Backs by arguing that McCarthy could’ve garnered more of a return if they’d moved him much earlier than January 2026, though McCarthy’s up-and-down performance made him something of a difficult player for the Diamondbacks to gauge, let alone shop to trade suitors.

Even with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. set to miss most or all of the 2026 season recovering from a torn ACL, the Diamondbacks still felt comfortable moving McCarthy out of their outfield mix.  McCarthy is out of minor league options, so sending him back to Triple-A again would’ve first required a trip through the waiver wire.  Today’s trade allows the D’Backs to get something back in return for a player who simply no longer seemed to be in their plans.

Corbin Carroll is locked into right field and Alek Thomas will probably get the bulk of center field work.  Any of Blaze Alexander, Jorge Barrosa, or utilityman Tim Tawa could be utilized in left field, plus former top prospect Jordan Lawlar played some center field in winter ball action and might also eventually get some looks in left field.  The Diamondbacks could also explore adding another outfielder over the course of the offseason.

The 28-year-old McCarthy now heads to the Mile High City for a fresh start, though he’ll be joining another somewhat crowded outfield picture.  If anything, there had been an expectation that the Rockies might deal from their outfield rather than add, given that it is perhaps the only real position of depth within the organization.  That said, acquiring McCarthy could be the Rockies’ way of retaining their outfield depth in advance of another trade later this winter.  For now, McCarthy joins Mickey Moniak, Brenton Doyle, Zac Veen, and Jordan Beck in Colorado’s outfield mix, with McCarthy probably lined up as the fifth outfielder.

Since being hired as the Rockies’ president of baseball operations in November, Paul DePodesta has swung two other trades, but this is the first that brought a brought a big league player back to Colorado in return.  DePodesta has a long road ahead of him in trying to bring the Rox back to respectability, but adding a former well-regarded prospect like McCarthy is a way of both raising the talent floor, and seeing what McCarthy can perhaps do with a change of scenery.  McCarthy is arbitration-controlled through the 2028 season, and is earning $1.525MM in 2026.

Grosz is on the move for the second time in less than six months, as the righty was one of the two pitching prospects the Yankees sent to the Rockies for Ryan McMahon at the last trade deadline.  Grosz was an 11th-round pick for the Yankees in the 2023 draft, and he posted a 4.67 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate, and 10.3% walk rate over 125 1/3 innings at the high-A level in 2025 (87 IP with the Yankees’ high-A affiliate, and the rest with the Rockies’ affiliate).

MLB Pipeline ranked Grosz as the 20th-best prospect in Colorado’s farm system, projecting him as a multi-inning reliever or perhaps a back-end starter.  Grosz’s fastball (which sits 93-95mph with a good spin rate) is his best pitch but also “his lone better-than-average offering,” as per Pipeline’s scouting report.  The 23-year-old is something of lottery ticket that the Diamondbacks can continue developing as a possible rotation piece.

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