The Astros and right-hander Tatsuya Imai are in agreement on a three-year, $54MM contract, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman adds that Imai can earn up to $3MM per year in incentives if he reaches 100 innings. The deal contains opt-outs after every year, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN.
Imai was one of the top starters available in free agency and coming off a career-best 1.92 ERA season with the Saitama Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. It was reported several days ago that he was meeting with teams in-person in advance of his January 2 signing deadline. The Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Phillies, and Orioles were among the clubs interested in signing him, so the Astros are a bit of a surprise destination.
We at MLBTR ranked Imai No. 7 on our Top 50 Free Agents list and projected him for a six-year, $150MM contract. This deal with Houston comes in at half the length of that projection, with around a third of the guaranteed money. It appeared that Imai had other offers on the table for longer terms but lower AAVs (link via Mark Feinsand of MLB.com). The opt-outs in his deal with Houston allow him to try for a bigger contract in future offseasons if he can prove himself in MLB.
Imai is 27 years old (28 in May) and has pitched to a 3.15 ERA in 963 2/3 career NPB innings. He debuted in 2018 at age 20 and made 16 appearances (15 starts), but struggled with a 4.97 ERA. Those early struggles continued from 2019-20. In the pandemic season, Imai had a 6.13 ERA in 61 2/3 innings and walked more batters than he struck out, which resulted in him temporarily being moved to the bullpen. He rebounded in 2021, posting a 3.30 ERA in 158 1/3 innings with an improved strikeout rate, and he has stuck as a starting pitcher ever since.
That kicked off a run of dominance from 2022-25. After posting a 2.41 ERA in nine starts with the Lions in 2022, Imai followed up with a 2.30 ERA and a 24.4% strikeout rate in 133 innings in 2023. While he did walk 11.4% of hitters that year, his strikeout and walk numbers improved year over year from 2023-25. This year, he struck out 27.8% of hitters (highest among qualified NPB starters) and walked just 7.0%. His 20.7% K-BB rate was third-best in that league. Imai also did very well at keeping the ball in the yard, allowing just six home runs all season (0.33 HR/9) and inducing groundballs 48.3% of the time. Overall, he enters the majors with a higher ceiling and much-improved control compared to his early career.
In terms of stuff, Imai profiles as a mid-rotation starter in the majors. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and can reach 99 mph, and he also throws a slider, splitter, and changeup. His excellent performance from 2022-25 made him an attractive target in free agency, although some evaluators were concerned about his secondary stuff and past struggles with control. It seemed that industry opinion was mixed on whether he could succeed as a big-league starter, which resulted in the lower-than-expected guarantee. Still, Imai’s track record of year-over-year improvement and relative youth were enough for the Astros to want him in their rotation.
More to come.
