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The Opener: Tucker Market, Rays Roster, Signings

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Movement in Tucker’s market?

It’s been a fairly active week on the free agent market, but things have mostly been quiet surrounding star outfielder Kyle Tucker. That changed yesterday, however, when a report emerged that Tucker had visited the Blue Jays’ spring training facility in Dunedin, Florida. It’s the first known meeting between the winter’s top free agent and a team, and the news continues a trend of Toronto being by far the most aggressive team in baseball to this point in the offseason. Adding Dylan Cease to the rotation and Kyle Tucker to the lineup would be enough for a banner offseason by itself, to say nothing of the Jays’ deal with Cody Ponce or their reported pursuits of players like Bo Bichette and Pete Fairbanks, who are still on the market.

Does Tucker have other in-person visits lined up? Are the Jays preparing a formal offer? More details on his market could emerge in the near future.

2. Rays 40-man roster move incoming:

The Rays reached an agreement with outfielder Cedric Mullins on a one-year deal yesterday, adding to an outfield that was in desperate need of reinforcements beyond re-signing Jake Fraley shortly after his non-tender. Tampa Bay will need to clear a spot on their 40-man roster to accommodate Mullins. The most common way to accomplish that is simply by designating a player for assignment, but it’s also possible the Rays could look to work out a trade that clears 40-man roster space instead. Tampa Bay is hardly a stranger to the trade market, and players on the roster like Brandon Lowe are already garnering attention as potential trade pieces this winter.

3. Other signings to be made official:

Mullins isn’t the only reported deal that has yet to be made official. Deals between the Dodgers and Miguel Rojas, the Blue Jays and Cody Ponce, the White Sox and Anthony Kay, as well as the Reds and Emilio Pagan are all still pending physicals and will need to be formalized in the coming days. That’s in addition to the deal between the Astros and Ryan Weiss, which has still yet to be made official and (unlike Rojas, Ponce, Kay, and Pagan) will require a 40-man roster move on the part of Houston. With the Winter Meetings fast approaching, signings and the subsequently required 40-man roster maintenance necessary to accommodate those fresh deals will surely continue to pile up.

MLB Mailbag: Mets, Red Sox, Murakami, Expansion, Cubs, Tatis

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This week's mailbag gets into the Mets' offseason thus far, Craig Breslow's tenure atop Boston's front office, the Munetaka Murakami situation, how an expansion draft works, the Cubs' anti-deferral policy, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s trade value, and much more.

Ed asks:

I'm finding it hard to understand the Mets thinking. I'm scratching my head about the Marcus Semien/ Brandon Nimmo trade. I asked my friend who's a big Mets fan (his last name is Metz) what he thought and he responded that it depends on what outfielder they replace Nimmo with. I told him that unless they break the bank on Kyle Tucker its not going to be a clear upgrade. I'd say Cody Bellinger is an slight upgrade but after looking at their numbers its amazing how similar Bellinger and Nimmo are offensively and I don't see Cody putting up as good numbers in Citi Field.

Then I heard they are shopping Senga, instead of signing Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez to compliment Senga they are looking to move on all together. Again I think both Framber and Ranger are probably a little better than Senga but if you sign one of them and keep Senga he becomes your # 2 which he is much better suited for.

I believe last year was more of a fluke for Devin Williams than the new norm, but would rather have Diaz, especially since William's problem might have been that he just can't handle the New York limelight. The Mets are now going with Williams as closer unless they resign Diaz and yes it probably closes the door on Diaz unless they want to invest over $100 million on two back end of the bullpen guys.

Just curious what you think of these moves. Do you feel the Mets will be stronger in the OF, Starting and Relief pitching in 2026?

Abner asks:

As a NY Mets fan I would love to see a late innings duo of Edwin Díaz & Devin Williams. But knowing how does David Stearns operate, how realistic is the Mets signing Díaz with Williams already in the fold? Will they look for cheaper options getting a guy like Tyler Rogers and/or Emilio Pagán to be the setup man while Williams is the closer? If they decide to invest heavily in Williams and Díaz, does that mean that they will not invest in an ace for the starting rotation this offseason? Thanks in advance.

On the Nimmo/Semien trade, I agree with Ed's friend.  So far, we've seen a portion of the Mets' offseason puzzle.  It's not close to being complete.

At age 33, Nimmo projects as roughly a 2.5 WAR player next year.  It's true that the free agent market is light on outfielders who are capable of that, beyond Tucker and Bellinger.  But it's also true that 34 MLB outfielders were worth 2.5+ WAR this year, including several few saw coming.  And that doesn't account for platoons that combined for 2.5 WAR-type value.

There's also collapse risk with the 33-year-old Nimmo, who is under contract through 2030.  Let's take a quick look at the last five years and see how many 33-year-old outfielders were worth 2.5+ WAR:

Nimmo's track record is very good, and a projection system is not going to project him to fall off a cliff after a 3-WAR season.  But outfield is a young man's game, and you can see how rare good seasons are at 33+.  With Nimmo, this could be a case of the old adage about trading a player a year too early rather than a year too late.  So I don't mind subtracting a player who probably won't age well, saving some money long-term and bringing in a second baseman with strong defense.  That's not to say Semien doesn't have his own collapse risk at 35, but his speed and defense are holding strong.

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Rays, Cedric Mullins Agree To One-Year Deal

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The Rays and outfielder Cedric Mullins are in agreement on a one-year deal, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. It’s worth $7MM, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Mullins is represented by Cote Sports Management. The Rays have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move for this Mullins deal to become official.

Mullins and the Rays will both be hoping that he can engineer a bounceback season in 2026. Now 31, he has spent the past few seasons primarily with the Orioles, serving as a well-rounded center fielder capable of providing a bit of pop, some speed and quality defense. However, 2025 was his worst season since he became a full-time major leaguer.

Back in 2021, he had a tremendous breakout year. He hit 30 home runs, stole 30 bases and ran the ball down in the outfield. He slashed .291/.360/.518 for a 136 wRC+. FanGraphs credited him with six wins above replacement.

That season now looks like an outlier. His subsequent campaigns haven’t been quite as good but he’s still been a very useful well-rounded contributor. The past four seasons have seen Mullins finish with a home run tally between 15 and 18, barely half of his 2021 total but still nothing to sneeze at. His stolen base numbers have oscillated but stayed near the 30ish range. He only swiped 19 in 2023 but he was limited to 116 games that year.

From 2022 to 2024, even with the diminished power, he slashed .244/.311/.407 for a 103 wRC+. He stole 85 bases and mostly got good review for his glovework. He tallied 7.7 fWAR, about two to three wins per season.

He got out to a hot start at the plate in 2025. At the end of April, he had six home runs, a .278/.412/.515 line and 163 wRC+. With free agency just a few months away, he seemed to have a shot at a nine-figure deal. Unfortunately, he went cold after that and never really recovered. From May 1st to the end of the season, he put up a dismal .198/.263/.355 line. A deadline deal to the Mets didn’t help get him back on track.

Ultimately, his full 2025 line of .216/.299/.391 isn’t too bad. The 94 wRC+ indicates he was only 6% below league average, but it’s obviously not ideal for a free agent to hit the open market riding a five-month slump.

His glovework is also arguably less stable now, perhaps not shocking for a guy who is now 31 years old. Outs Above Average still considers him an above average fielder but by a smaller margin now. He was credited with at least 10 OAA in both 2021 and 2022 but was below five in each of the two most recent seasons. Defensive Runs Saved ranked him as a strong defender a few years ago but tagged him with a -4 grade in 2024 and -14 in 2025, dropping him to -11 DRS for his career.

The combination of trends left Mullins with diminished earning power but he’s a sensible flier for the Rays to take. They used a mishmash of different guys in their outfield group in 2025. Each of Chandler Simpson, Jake Mangum, Josh Lowe, Christopher Morel and Kameron Misner took between 216 and 429 plate appearances as an outfielder for Tampa this year, with others appearing for smaller samples as well. None of those five guys had even league average offense this year. Misner and Morel were designated for assignment at the end of the season. Misner was traded to the Royals. Morel was non-tendered and is now a free agent.

Last month, Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander admitted that upgrading the outfield would be a target for this offseason. However, spending big has never really been the club’s style. That’s presumably extra true after a season in which they had to move to a minor league park, which led to extra expenses and then smaller crowds. The Rays decided to pass on picking up an $11MM club option for Pete Fairbanks, despite a fairly affordable $10MM price difference between that option and the $1MM buyout.

The Rays wouldn’t be serious contenders for signing someone like Kyle Tucker or Cody Bellinger. Even if they were willing to splurge on a mid-market free agent, this year doesn’t really have any outfielders who fit the description. Trent Grisham would have been in there but he accepted a qualifying offer from the Yankees. That left the Rays with the trade market and then free agents like Mullins, Harrison Bader, Mike Yastrzemski and others.

RosterResource currently estimates the Rays for a $77MM payroll in 2026, before factoring in Mullins. They finished 2025 at $88MM. It’s unknown how much they plan to spend next year but they will be pretty close to last year’s outlay once Mullins is officially on the books.

Presumably, Mullins will be penciled in as the everyday center fielder as the Rays hope he finds a way to return to form. Their remaining outfielders can battle over the playing time in the corners, with Mullins perhaps acting as a veteran mentor for them.

Photos courtesy of Jeff Hanisch, Mitch Stringer, Imagn Images

Reds To Re-Sign Emilio Pagán

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The Reds are reportedly bringing back closer Emilio Pagán on a two-year, $20MM contract. The deal, which is pending a physical, allows the Ballengee Group client to opt out after next season. Cincinnati’s 40-man roster count will climb to 39 once the signing is finalized.

Pagán returns on another two-year deal after one of the best seasons of his career. The Reds surprisingly signed him to a $16MM contract over the 2023-24 offseason. There was obvious risk in adding a fly-ball pitcher to work in high-leverage spots at one of the sport’s most hitter-friendly parks. Pagán didn’t post great numbers and missed a couple months with a lat injury in 2024, so he had an easy call to bypass an opt-out and return to Cincinnati.

This year went a lot more smoothly. Pagán took over the closer role from Alexis Díaz and recorded a career-high 32 saves. He did blow six save chances but had a strong season overall, pitching to a 2.88 earned run average across 68 2/3 innings. He punched out 30% of opponents against a solid 8.1% walk rate. Pagán avoided any injuries and pitched well against left- and right-handed batters alike. He got swinging strikes at a strong 14.6% clip while sitting in the 95-96 MPH range with his fastball.

Pagán has always had an elite strikeout and walk profile. He hasn’t had the year-by-year consistency of the sport’s best closers, though. The fly-ball approach still leaves him vulnerable to the home run ball. Pagán has only had one season in his nine-year career in which he has allowed fewer home runs than the average reliever. He has surrendered 85 home runs since entering the league in 2017. That’s 19 more than any other reliever over that stretch.

The longball is always going to be an issue, but Pagán sticking around as a high-leverage reliever despite the homers is a testament to his effectiveness in other areas. He’s a reliable control artist with above-average velocity. His splitter gives him an option to attack opposite-handed hitters, while he mixes in a cutter as his main offspeed pitch versus righty batters. Pagán has generally been durable outside of the aforementioned lat strain. He has topped 50 innings in every other full schedule of his career, including six years with 60+ frames.

Pagán’s strong walk year earns him a nice contract for his age 35-36 seasons. The guarantee narrowly beats our two-year, $16MM prediction. Pagán also gets the upside of the out clause, which allows him to get back to free agency if he has an equally strong ’26 season. Another two-year deal at age 36 would be rare but not unprecedented, so it’s not out of the question that he pitches well enough to consider that route.

Assuming Terry Francona slots Pagán back in the ninth inning, he’ll pitch behind a solid setup group that includes Tony Santillan, Connor Phillips and Graham Ashcraft. Cincinnati should add a left-hander at some point. The only southpaw who’d be in their bullpen at the moment is Sam Moll, who was up and down from Triple-A Louisville throughout the year.

Cincinnati has $32.275MM in guaranteed contracts to six players: Pagán, Hunter Greene, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Jose Trevino, Ben Rortvedt, and Moll. They owe $15MM in dead money ($12MM salary and a $3MM option buyout payable after the World Series) to Jeimer Candelario. Cincinnati has a sizable arbitration class which MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects to cost around $45MM. They’d owe another $8-10MM in minimum salary players, which puts their current commitments in the $100-105MM range. President of baseball operations Nick Krall said he expects payroll to be around the $116MM at which they opened the 2025 season.

That’d leave them with roughly $15-20MM to spend. They’re in the market for an impact bat and reportedly trying to bring Kyle Schwarber back to the Cincinnati area. That would surely cost more than $20MM annually. It’s possible ownership would make an exception for someone like Schwarber or Pete Alonso. The front office could also look to trade a player or two from the arbitration class to free up more spending capacity if they feel they’ve got a strong chance to sign an elite hitter.

Ken Rosenthal and C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic first reported that the Reds and Pagán had reached a two-year, $20MM deal with an out. Image courtesy of Imagn Images.

Dodgers To Re-Sign Miguel Rojas

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Miguel Rojas will play his final season as a Dodger. The World Series hero is reportedly in agreement with Los Angeles on a one-year, $5.5MM contract. Rojas, a client of Beverly Hills Sports Council, announced in October that he would retire after the 2026 season. He’ll reportedly jump right into a player development position with the Dodgers once his playing career is finished. That’ll push the team’s 40-man roster count to 38 once it’s official.

It’ll be Rojas’ fourth consecutive season in L.A. and his fifth as a Dodger overall. He broke into the majors with the team in 2014 but was traded to the Marlins after his rookie year. Rojas spent eight seasons in Miami, much of it as an everyday shortstop, until the Fish traded him back to the Dodgers over the 2022-23 offseason. He has worked in a utility role for the past three seasons and has been a strong contributor off the bench for Dave Roberts in the most recent two years.

Rojas owns a .273/.328/.404 batting line across 654 plate appearances in the past two seasons. He remains one of the toughest players in the league to strike out. Rojas is no longer an everyday shortstop but can back up Mookie Betts while logging more time between second and third base. He remains a quality utility piece who has also been regarded as a clubhouse leader in Miami and Los Angeles. The Dodgers intend to keep him in the organization beyond his playing days, which reflects his clearly strong relationship with the coaching staff and front office.

That all made it likely that the Dodgers would bring Rojas back regardless of what happened in the postseason. He then cemented himself in franchise lore and baseball history with one of the most dramatic, improbable home runs of all time.

Roberts penciled Rojas into the starting lineup for Games 6 and 7 of the World Series. He came up with one out in the ninth inning of the decider against Jeff Hoffman. With the Dodgers trailing by one, Rojas (who has never hit more than 11 home runs in a season) took Hoffman deep to left field to tie the game. It was one of the most impactful single plays ever, and the Dodgers went on to win in extras when Will Smith homered off Shane Bieber.

That one swing probably doesn’t have much bearing on Rojas’ contract. His $5.5MM salary is narrowly above the $5MM that he made in both 2024 and ’25. The Dodgers were very likely to bring him back to continue playing a utility role regardless. He’ll offer a right-handed complement to lefty hitting Max Muncy and Hyeseong Kim around the infield. The Dodgers could look to re-sign Kiké Hernández for a similar job, though that again wouldn’t leave much playing time for well-regarded prospect Alex Freeland.

The Dodgers have a projected payroll of $337MM for next season, according to RosterResource. A good portion of that money is deferred, of course. Their competitive balance tax number — which adjusts for contracts’ post-deferral values — sits at an estimated $319MM. They’re already in the top tax bracket and pay the highest fees as three-time repeat payors, meaning they’re hit with a 110% tax on any additions. They’ll pay $6.05MM in taxes on this deal, bringing the overall investment to $11.55MM. That’s not much by Dodgers standards, and they’ll hope Rojas plays a role in becoming the first team to win three straight titles since the 1998-2000 Yankees.

Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase first reported the signing and terms. Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski, Imagn Images.

MLBTR Podcast: An Agent’s Perspective with B.B. Abbott – Also, Cease, Williams, Helsley, And Gray

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by B.B. Abbott of Wasserman Baseball to discuss…

  • Abbott’s approach to free agency (3:30)
  • The impact of the media on free agency (10:00)
  • The different levels of player involvement in free agency (17:00)
  • The decision to sign an extension instead of going to free agency (20:15)
  • Chris Sale and his extensions with the White Sox, Red Sox and Braves (23:00)
  • Byron Buxton and his extension with the Twins (28:50)
  • Representing young players going into the draft (32:10)
  • The general state of baseball (35:50)

Plus, Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors joins the show to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

  • Some “Classic Baseball Trades,” Nimmo For Semien, And Ward For Rodriguez – listen here
  • Offseason Preview Megapod: Top 50 Free Agents – listen here
  • Surprising Option Decisions, Qualifying Offers, And Paul DePodesta – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images

St. Petersburg Officials Optimistic About Tropicana Field Being Ready For Opening Day

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Work continues to repair the hurricane damage that rendered Tropicana Field unplayable in 2025. St. Petersburg officials updated the local media on the construction efforts on Wednesday, expressing optimism that everything will be completed by Opening Day.

“At this moment in time, we have no concern about being ready for opening day April 6. And we hope we keep it that way,” city administrator Beth Herendeen told reporters (including Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times and Kristie Ackert of The Associated Press). The city finished reinstalling roof panels last month and is now focused on interior work. That includes repairs to the clubhouses, seating areas, and improvements to the video board.

There’ll also be a new artificial turf. Ackert writes that work on the playing surface could begin in January, while Topkin notes that the team is hopeful that’ll be complete by the end of Spring Training. That’d enable them to familiarize themselves with the turf before regular season games get underway. The Rays begin the season with road series in St. Louis, Milwaukee and Minnesota. They’re set to host the Cubs and Yankees from April 6-12 in their first homestand.

The Rays played the 2025 season at Tampa’s George M. Steinbrenner Field. That’s an outdoor stadium with a capacity around 11,000. While the Trop has been frequently maligned in comparison to other MLB stadiums, it’s no doubt preferable to playing in an A-ball facility.

The Rays’ lease at Tropicana Field initially ran through 2027. That was extended by a year when the facility was taken out of commission. Assuming everything remains on track for next season, the lease will expire after the ’28 campaign. The City of St. Petersburg was responsible for the repair costs as the lessor and approved a little under $60MM to that end. The Rays remain in search of a long-term stadium deal in the Tampa area. That’s the primary goal for new owner Patrick Zalupski, who purchased the franchise from Stu Sternberg after the latter’s efforts to renegotiate the stadium deal following the 2024 hurricanes stalled.

Sam Hilliard Signs With KBO’s KT Wiz

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The KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization announced the signing of outfielder Sam Hilliard to a $1MM contract. He’ll collect a $300K signing bonus and make a $700K salary. Hilliard elected minor league free agency after being outrighted by Colorado in July.

A lefty-hitting outfielder, Hilliard has played parts of seven seasons in the big leagues. Most of that time has been with the Rockies, for whom he logged separate stats sandwiching a 2023 season in Atlanta. Hilliard has plus raw power and speed but has never made enough contact to stick as a regular. He has yet to appear in more than half a team’s games or top 238 plate appearances in an MLB season.

The 31-year-old Hilliard is a lifetime .218/.298/.437 hitter in a little under 1000 career trips to the plate. The former 15th-round draftee has punched out in 34.3% of those plate appearances. He’s a much more accomplished Triple-A performer. Hilliard has a .275/.356/.563 slash over six Triple-A campaigns. That includes a .288/.367/.565 showing with 17 homers in 91 games for Colorado’s top affiliate this past season.

This is Hilliard’s first trip to Asia, where he’ll take home a stronger salary than he’d have received on a minor league deal. Hilliard completes the Wiz’s trio of allotted foreign-born players. The team signed right-handers Matt Sauer and Caleb Boushley earlier in the offseason.

Jose Ruiz Signs With NPB’s Yokohama BayStars

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The Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced yesterday that they’ve signed reliever José Ruiz. MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports that it’s a one-year deal with a 2027 club option. The OL Baseball Group client is guaranteed $1.2MM and can collect another $200K per season in incentives.

Ruiz, 31, split last season between the Phillies and Braves. He opened the year in Philadelphia’s big league bullpen but was hit hard, giving up 13 earned runs across 14 1/3 innings. They designated him for assignment and lost him on waivers to Atlanta at the beginning of June. Ruiz didn’t get much of a look from the Braves, who dropped him after he gave up three runs to the Rockies in his second appearance. He cleared waivers that time around and spent the rest of the season in Triple-A.

Atlanta flipped Ruiz to the Rangers as a salary offset in the Dane Dunning deal a month later. He didn’t make it back to the majors with Texas. The Venezuelan righty pitched well in Triple-A, though, combining for a 2.73 ERA in 33 innings. He struck out 24% of opponents against an excellent 5.4% walk percentage.

Ruiz has logged some big league action in each of the past nine seasons. He spent most of his career with the White Sox but was a useful middle reliever for the Phillies as recently as 2024. This is his first stint in Asia. The $1.2MM guarantee is better than he would’ve received had he sought minor league opportunities in affiliated ball. He’s young enough to explore a return down the line if he pitches well in Japan.

Kyle Tucker Visits Blue Jays’ Spring Facility

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The Blue Jays welcomed Kyle Tucker to their Dunedin complex this afternoon, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Murray writes that the Jays continue to have interest in both Tucker and Bo Bichette.

Toronto has been the most aggressive team in the first month of the offseason. Their seven-year deal with Dylan Cease is the biggest signing to date. They agreed to a three-year contract with KBO MVP Cody Ponce to deepen the rotation. None of that is expected to take them out of the mix on a top free agent hitter. It’d be stunning to see them sign Tucker and Bichette — who’ll probably join Cease in receiving the three largest contracts of the offseason — but the Jays appear firmly in play for either of free agency’s two best hitters.

Re-signing Bichette would be the more straightforward move, but Tucker is the better all-around player. He’s a lifetime .273/.358/.507 hitter and is coming off a .266/.377/.464 showing in his lone season with the Cubs. Even if the Jays don’t really need a corner outfielder, Tucker is the caliber of player for whom any team can make room. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote last month that some executives with other clubs considered the Jays the likeliest landing spot. That preceded the Cease signing but hasn’t closed the door on the possibility.

MLBTR predicted Tucker to receive an 11-year, $400MM contract as he enters his age-29 season. He declined a qualifying offer and is attached to draft pick compensation. The Jays already forfeited their second- and fifth-highest picks in next year’s draft, plus $1MM from their 2027 international bonus pool, to sign Cease. Signing another qualified free agent would cost them their third- and sixth-highest picks as well. That would not apply to their own qualified free agent in Bichette (though they’d give up their right to receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round).

RosterResource projects the Jays around a $282MM competitive balance tax figure. They’re already on track for the highest payroll in team history. Adding another top free agent would push them beyond the $304MM final luxury tax threshold. There’s no indication that the budget is tight at this point, though the Jays could try to shed some of the remaining three years and $66MM on the José Berríos deal. Toronto is seeking a high-leverage reliever on top of their pursuit for a big bat.

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