The Red Sox are going to sign left-hander Ranger Suárez, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. It’s a five-year deal worth $130MM, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The Sox have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move in order to accommodate the Boras Corporation client.
More to come.
The Twins announced Wednesday that they’ve claimed infielder/outfielder Vidal Brujan off waivers from the Braves, who’d designated him for assignment last week. In a corresponding move, Minnesota designated catcher/infielder Mickey Gasper for assignment. The Twins’ 40-man roster remains at capacity.
Originally signed by the Rays as an amateur out of the Dominican Repbulic, Brujan spent four years (2019-22) holding a spot on Baseball America’s top-100 prospect list. He’s now 28 years old, out of minor league options, and has yet to hit at the major league level, however.
Brujan split the 2025 campaign between the Cubs, Orioles (one plate appearance) and Braves. The switch-hitter came to the plate 95 times overall and slashed .253/.305/.310 in that time. He’s now logged MLB action in each of the past five seasons — suiting up for the Rays and Marlins in addition to that 2025 trio of clubs — but mustered only a tepid .199/.267/.276 batting line in 645 turns at the plate.
Brujan’s once-plus speed has fallen off considerably. Statcast pegged him in the 37th percentile of big leaguers last season in terms of average sprint speed. He has decent contact skills (21.6% strikeout rate since ’22), draws walks at a nearly average clip (7.8% in that same span) and has experience at every position on the diamond other than catcher (including 3 2/3 innings of mop-up relief).
Though he hasn’t hit in the majors, Brujan has a solid track record in Triple-A, where he’s slashed .273/.356/.450 with a 10.6% walk rate and just a 16.5% strikeout rate in a little over 1000 plate appearances. Since he’s out of minor league options, the Twins won’t be able to send him to Triple-A unless he first clears waivers.
That presents something of a “logjam” of fringey, out-of-options players in the Twins’ bench mix. Backup catcher Alex Jackson was acquired in a trade and signed to a $1.35MM contract for the upcoming season. His spot is presumably safe. Brujan will compete with outfielder James Outman (acquired from the Dodgers in exchange for Brock Stewart this past July), former top prospect Edouard Julien and utilityman Kody Clemens — all out of options themselves — for a spot ono Minnesota’s bench. It’s also plausible that the Twins simply hope to stash him as depth in Triple-A and will try to run Brujan through waivers themselves in the weeks ahead.
More to come.
This week's mailbag gets into Nico Hoerner trade possibilities, whether top remaining free agents will go short or long-term, what's next for the Red Sox after Alex Bregman signed with the Cubs, where free agents such as Lucas Giolito and Zac Gallen might land, and much more.
Marc asks:
Well, Tom Ricketts proved me wrong. I never thought he’d pony up for a high dollar FA again. So, what now? I see all the rumors about Nico Hoerner but I think the Edward Cabrera trade and Alex Bregman signing are “all in” moves and moving Hoerner would weaken them (I think). Is there another move you think they could/ should still make?
I was surprised as well. I didn't think the Cubs would substantially improve their offer to Bregman from a year prior. But while Bregman is a year older, he was also free of the qualifying offer this time around. The signing is also a reminder that each offseason is its own beast with unique variables. What might have changed for the Cubs in 2025? They saw increased regular season attendance, hosted five playoff games at Wrigley, and got a better feel for what Matt Shaw can do in the Majors. They may have also grown more enamored of Bregman, who seemed to be adored by Boston's young players.
I would not make a blanket statement that the Cubs should not trade Hoerner this winter - it always depends on the return. But certainly the Cubs should not trade Hoerner if it makes them worse in 2026.
I haven't found a Cubs fan online who wants to trade Hoerner. But I will play devil's advocate for a minute.
This week’s trade sending Nolan Arenado from St. Louis to Arizona and the Cubs’ weekend signing of Alex Bregman figure to accelerate the market surrounding various trade and free agent scenarios. One club that could directly be impacted is the Mariners, who’ve spent the bulk of the winter trying to add another infielder after re-signing Josh Naylor on a five-year contract early in the offseason.
Seattle’s interest in Cardinals second baseman Brendan Donovan is no secret. They were linked to him last offseason and have been reported to be one of his most prominent suitors this winter. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports that in addition to Donovan, the Mariners have had “ongoing” discussions with the Cardinals about left-handed reliever JoJo Romero throughout the winter. Seattle already added one southpaw arm for the bullpen, acquiring Jose A. Ferrer from the Nationals in December, and they have a second outstanding option in Gabe Speier, who enjoyed a breakout year in 2025 (and was just added to the Team USA roster for the upcoming World Baseball Classic).
Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that Donovan is the Mariners’ top target on the trade market but adds that the M’s also have interest in Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner. The veteran Hoerner’s name has come up in trade speculation since the Bregman signing, though it seems unlikely a deal will actually come together. Chicago appears willing to listen as a matter of due diligence but would presumably need to be overwhelmed and receive substantial big league talent to trade Hoerner coming off a .297/.345/.394 season that saw him swipe 29 bases, win his second Gold Glove and finish sixth in the National League with 6.2 wins above replacement, per Baseball-Reference (or 15th with 4.8 fWAR, for those who prefer FanGraphs’ version of the statistic).
[Related: Giants Aggressively Pursuing Second Base Upgrade]
At this point, the fit between Donovan and the Mariners has been explored at length. He’s an affordable ($5.8MM in 2026) high-contact bat with good on-base and defensive skills who can handle either of the two currently unsettled positions in the Seattle infield: second base or third base. The M’s have plenty of highly touted prospects who could emerge at those positions — Colt Emerson, Cole Young, Michael Arroyo among them — but Donovan could also move to an outfield corner if those promising young players force the issue. He’s under control through the 2027 season via arbitration.
Romero was previously linked to the Mariners, but that was before the team acquired Ferrer. It’s notable that Jones implies there have been talks even after that swap. The 29-year-old lefty has been a mainstay in the Cardinals’ bullpen for three-plus seasons now and has steadily shown year-over-year improvement. In 2025, he tossed a career-high 61 innings with a career-best 2.07 earned run average. Romero saved eight games, tallied 24 holds and blew only one opportunity. He fanned a slightly below-average 21.6% of his opponents against a bloated 11.4% walk rate that stands as a major outlier relative to the career 7.7% walk rate he carried into the ’25 season. The lefty also kept a hefty 54.5% of batted balls on the ground.
The Cardinals signed Romero to a $4.26MM contract for the upcoming season — his final year of club control. While last year’s hiccup in terms of command is of at least some concern, the broader track record is quite strong. Since joining the Cardinals, Romero boasts a flat 3.00 ERA (3.61 SIERA) with a 23.4% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate, 53.7% ground-ball rate, 57 holds and 12 saves. The Orioles and Yankees are among the others to show interest in Romero, though it’s a veritable certainty that the field of interested clubs is much larger than just these three.
Echoing previous reporting from The Athletic’s Katie Woo, Jude suggests that at least a pair of top-100 prospects — switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje and outfielder Lazaro Montes — have been discussed in talks with the Cardinals. The exact permutations of those talks remains murky. There’s no firm indication that St. Louis has sought both in the same package for Donovan, just as there’s no certainty that Seattle has offered both. It’s certainly possible that Romero’s name has come up as part of a package talk involving one or both those ballyhooed young players. Whatever shape those negotiations have taken, they (obviously) have yet to culminate in a deal.
Hoerner, much like Donovan, is a straightforward fit for the Mariners. The previously mentioned Cole Young is currently in line to open the season at second base for the M’s. He’s a former first-round pick and top-50 prospect, but Young hit just .211/.302/.305 in his first 77 MLB games last year. He won’t even turn 23 until late July, so there’s plenty of time for him to develop into a quality regular, but the Mariners are built to win right now. Hoerner, a free agent next winter who’s signed for $12MM in 2026, would give the Mariners an immediate upgrade while affording them the luxury of additional development time for Young. As a bonus, Seattle could extend a qualifying offer to Hoerner next November, netting them a compensatory draft pick in the event that he signs elsewhere.
Again, the Cubs are not outright shopping Hoerner but are willing to hear other clubs out. They’re almost certainly not going to trade him for prospects who are years from MLB readiness; doing so would offset most or even all of the wins gained by bringing Bregman into the fold. It’s hard to come up with a direct exchange that would benefit both parties equally, but the Mariners are nothing if not aggressive and creative on the trade front.
At present, RosterResource projects the Mariners for just under $157MM in 2026 payroll. That’s a bit shy of the franchise-record $158MM Opening Day payroll and a ways south of the roughly $167MM figure at which they ended the 2025 campaign. Given the win-now push in Seattle and the extra revenue from a deep playoff run that saw the Mariners advance to Game 7 of the American League Championship Series, it stands to reason that ownership is willing to push payroll beyond those marks.
The Cubs have made their third-largest signing in franchise history official, announcing Wednesday that they’ve signed third baseman Alex Bregman to a five-year contract that’ll reportedly guarantee him $175MM. Bregman, a client of the Boras Corporation, receives a full no-trade clause. Unlike his prior contract with the Red Sox, there are no opt-out opportunities. The deal reportedly includes $70MM of deferred money, dropping the net present value from a $35MM average annual value to something in the $30-31MM range. He’ll be introduced in a press conference tomorrow morning at 10:30am CT.
When last offseason’s proposals fell short of Bregman’s expectations, he pivoted to a heavily-deferred three-year, $120MM deal with the Red Sox. The quality of his 2025 season, plus his ineligibility for a qualifying offer this time around, led to this long-term deal.
MLBTR projected a six-year, $160MM contract for Bregman back in November. He ultimately landed a bit shy of that on a five-year term, when accounting for deferrals. It’s still the largest average annual value in Cubs franchise history, and the total guarantee trails only Jason Heyward ($184MM) and Dansby Swanson ($177MM). The inclusion of deferrals is a notable departure for the Ricketts family ownership group; just last offseason, they appeared staunchly against utilizing deferred money in free agent negotiations.
For the Cubs, the addition of Bregman is the biggest splash in an active offseason. The club acquired young starter Edward Cabrera from the Marlins three days ago, adding upside to the rotation at the expense of a top-50 prospect in Owen Caissie. The Cubs have largely rebuilt their bullpen with a quintet of free agent signings: Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Caleb Thielbar, Hoby Milner, and Jacob Webb. They also retained swingman Colin Rea and starter Shota Imanaga.
Bregman gives the Cubs a major offensive upgrade without the loss of a draft pick, as he rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros in 2024. His salary brings the team’s projected 2026 payroll to $231MM, a full $25MM over last year’s $206MM figure, according to RosterResource. Meanwhile, their CBT payroll stands around $243MM for 2026, putting the Cubs just shy of the first luxury tax threshold. The Cubs did not exceed the CBT in 2025, so they’ll reside in the lightest tax bracket if they go over in ’26.
Bregman, 31, played in 114 games with Boston this year, making 495 plate appearances. Although he missed a month and a half with a right quad strain, he continued to excel on offense, batting .273/.360/.462 and grading out 25% better than average by wRC+. After posting a career-low 6.9% walk rate in his final year with the Astros, Bregman bumped that up to 10.3% in 2025. He maintained his reputation as a high-contact hitter, with his 14.1% strikeout rate grading out in the 88th percentile. His 90.1 mph average exit velocity and 44.4% hard-hit rate were both career bests. He also continued to perform well defensively, earning 3 Outs Above Average for his work at third base. Overall, Bregman’s 2025 contributions were good for 3.5 fWAR and his third career All-Star nomination.
A lot of that came from his red-hot first two months. At the time of his injury, Bregman had a 156 wRC+ through 226 PA. His production following his return was more uneven. He posted a 128 wRC+ in July, followed by a 108 wRC+ in August and just a 76 wRC+ in September. In the first half, Bregman was 52% better than average by wRC+. In the second half, he was right around average.
Though he wasn’t his usual self in the last two months of the year, Bregman’s lengthy track record still made him one of the top free agents in this year’s class. Since debuting with the Astros in 2016, he has batted .272/.365/.481 with 209 home runs and a 133 wRC+. His first two All-Star appearances came in 2018-19. Bregman averaged 8.1 fWAR and finished in the Top 5 in AL MVP voting in both years, finishing as the runner-up in 2019.
While he hasn’t reached those heights in the years since, Bregman has still been a well-above-average hitter. He has posted a wRC+ between 117 and 137 in every year from 2020-25. Bregman’s defense has also held firm. Since the start of 2020, he has been worth 10 DRS and 17 OAA. He ranks eighth among qualified third basemen in that span by OAA.
That track record, Bregman’s excellent clubhouse reputation, and his still-excellent 2025 drew ample interest in free agency. The Red Sox were clearly keen on a reunion, with recent reports indicating they had made him an “aggressive” offer. Outside of them and the Cubs, his known suitors included the Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays (before they signed Kazuma Okamoto). The Tigers and Cubs were interested in Bregman last offseason as well. Detroit reportedly offered him six years and $171.5MM, albeit with significant deferrals. Chicago’s offer was in the four-year, $115MM range. One year later, the Cubs put forth more than $40MM more to lock him up, even when considering the surprising deferred money.
Bregman likely sought a $200MM guarantee during the 2024-25 offseason. He got to $215MM on paper in total, though deferred money on both contracts probably puts him a little short of a true $200MM. Regardless, returning to the market after opting out of a short-term deal is a strategy we’ve seen Boras execute successfully with Bregman, Carlos Rodon, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, and Pete Alonso in recent years, with Cody Bellinger serving as the next test case.
With Bregman slotting in at third base, the most impacted player on the Cubs’ roster is incumbent third baseman Matt Shaw. As a rookie, Shaw posted a .226/.295/.394 line in 437 plate appearances, good for a 93 wRC+. Factoring in his serviceable defense (-1 DRS), Shaw was worth 1.5 fWAR in 2025. That was acceptable production for the rookie and former top prospect, though there are clear areas for improvement heading into his sophomore season. Shaw’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rate ranked in the third and seventh percentiles, respectively. He also struggled against fastballs, with a -6 run value against sinkers and a -1 value against four-seamers.
Shaw came up through the system as a middle infielder before shifting to third base in earnest in 2024. At present, Swanson and Nico Hoerner occupy the shortstop and second base spots on the big-league roster. Swanson is under contract through 2029 and won’t be moving off short any time soon. Hoerner has been an above-average hitter and excellent defender in the past four seasons, tallying 17.5 fWAR. Hoerner moved to second base in 2023 in deference to Swanson.
With the 28-year-old Hoerner eligible for free agency after 2026 – with earning power likely to get a boost from his ability to play shortstop – his name has surfaced in trade rumors this winter. The best 2026 Cubs team has Hoerner at second base and Shaw in a utility infield role, but it’s at least conceivable that either player could be dealt this offseason.
For Red Sox fans, the past seven months have provided a painful sequence of events at third base. Rafael Devers was dealt to the Giants in a surprise June blockbuster, and now Bregman has departed as well. According to Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, the Red Sox “did not come close financially and were not willing to give Bregman a full no-trade clause.”
The Red Sox, the only team yet to have signed a Major League free agent this winter, could turn to Bo Bichette to play second base. Bichette will likely require a long-term deal of his own, however, and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has yet to sign a free agent for more than Bregman’s three years (which only lasted one).
Jon Heyman of the New York Post first broke news of the signing, with ESPN’s Jeff Passan adding terms and Bob Nightengale of USA Today providing further details. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the deal includes deferred money.
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The Rakuten Golden Eagles of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced this week that they’ve signed veteran right-hander José Ureña to a one-year contract for the 2026 season. It’ll be the first stint overseas for the Premier Talent Sports client, who’s previously pitched for 11 major league clubs — including a whopping five teams in 2025 alone.
Ureña, 34, split the ’25 campaign between the Mets, Twins, Blue Jays, Dodgers and Angels. He logged a combined 55 innings between that quintet of clubs and worked to a 4.58 ERA. Ureña fanned just 13.9% of his opponents and turned in a 9.4% walk rate. The 96.2 mph average on his four-seamer was the second-best mark he’s posted in any of his 11 major league seasons.
For at least a couple seasons early in his career, Ureña looked the part of a nice back-of-the-rotation arm for the Marlins — his original organization. From 2017-18, he pitched 343 2/3 innings with a 3.90 earned run average, a below-average 17% strikeout rate, a solid 8% walk rate and an above-average 46.3% ground-ball rate. He obviously didn’t miss many bats, but Ureña was a hard-throwing sinker specialist who kept the ball on the ground and generally did a decent job avoiding home runs.
Things unraveled for Ureña beginning in 2019, however, and he didn’t get back on track at all until the 2024 season. While he’s posted decent bottom-line results over the past two seasons (4.06 ERA, 164 innings), the right-hander’s rate stats have continued to slip in recent years. Fielding-independent metrics like SIERA (4.89) and FIP (4.81) feel even that modest earned run average would be tough to sustain with his current rate output. And overall, dating back to 2019, Ureña has a 5.04 ERA in 514 1/3 major league frames.
Between those declining rate stats and the dizzying toll of pitching between five different teams in a single season, Ureña presumably welcomes the opportunity to have a guaranteed contract for the upcoming season. With a nice year overseas, he could position himself for another one-year pact in NPB, and if he makes some meaningful changes to his repertoire, it’s possible he’ll end up back in the major league mix next year, either on a non-roster deal or a small one-year guarantee.
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Tucker market accelerating:
Kyle Tucker’s market finally appears to be picking up steam. The Mets have reportedly made a short-term offer with an average annual value as high as $50MM, while the Blue Jays have put forth a long-term offer — the details of which remain unclear. If Tucker is genuinely considering shorter-term offers, the Dodgers will surely be interested as well. Other teams like the Yankees seem to be hanging around the periphery of Tucker’s market, too, although fellow lefty-swinging outfielder Cody Bellinger appears to remain the priority over in the Bronx. With some reports suggesting that Tucker could agree to a deal before the end of the week, where will he land?
2. Cardinals move into post-Arenado era:
The Cardinals finally pulled off their long-awaited trade of likely future Hall of Famer Nolan Arenado yesterday, and in shipping him to the Diamondbacks (and paying down all but $11MM of his contract to do so) they’ll enter the 2026 season without any of the veteran All-Stars they carried in previous years on their roster. For a rebuilding club like St. Louis, that means an opportunity to give significant run to younger players like Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese, and top prospect JJ Wetherholt. The question for the Cardinals at this point is whether (or when) some of the club’s arbitration-eligible players, like infielder/outfielder Brendan Donovan or lefty reliever JoJo Romero, will follow Arenado out the door.
3. What’s next in the Bronx and Miami?:
The Yankees pulled off a surprising trade last night when they nabbed hard-throwing lefty Ryan Weathers from the Marlins in exchange for four lower-minors prospects led by outfielder Dillon Lewis. The deal seemingly brings to a close the Yankees’ pursuit of starting pitching help this offseason. Weathers should fortify the rotation with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt all opening the season on the injured list.
With Weathers now in the fold, perhaps the Yankees can more fully focus on addressing their lineup, whether that’s with a Bellinger reunion, a pivot toward Tucker or Bo Bichette, or a pursuit of an unexpected target. As for the Marlins, they were already considering adding an innings-eating veteran starter after trading Edward Cabrera to the Cubs last week. That only figures to be become more important now that they’ve taken another valuable arm out of their rotation mix. Zack Littell, Tyler Anderson, Patrick Corbin, Jose Quintana, Tomoyuki Sugano and Chris Paddack are among the many yet-unsigned free agent starters.
After more than a yearlong residency on the rumor mill, Nolan Arenado’s time in St. Louis is over. The Cardinals announced Tuesday that they’ve traded Arenado and cash to the D-backs in exchange for minor league right-hander Jack Martinez (Arizona’s eighth-round pick in the 2025 draft). The Diamondbacks are reportedly on the hook for a total of $11MM of the remaining $42MM owed to Arenado over the next two seasons. The Cardinals owe the remaining $31MM. Arizona’s 40-man roster had a vacancy but is now at capacity with the addition of Arenado.
With the Cardinals entering a rebuild under new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, trading the 34-year-old Arenado (35 in April) has been a primary goal this offseason. St. Louis has finally achieved that goal but paid a hefty price to do so. Arizona will be on the hook for just $5MM this season and $6MM next year.
Three years ago, a salary dump of Arenado would’ve been hard to imagine. He was a National League MVP finalist after hitting .293/.358/.533 with 30 home runs and his typical brand of elite defense during that 2022 season. His offense slipped considerably in 2023 (.266/.315/.459) but was still north of league average. It dipped to about average in 2024, however, and plummeted well below par this past season.
In 436 plate appearances with the Cardinals in 2025, Arenado turned in an anemic .237/.289/.377 batting line. By measure of wRC+, he was 16% worse than an average hitter at the plate. Arenado’s 12 home runs were his lowest in a full season since his rookie year back in 2013. This year’s 6.4% walk rate was his lowest since 2015. When considering that his 34.1% chase rate on pitches off the plate was also his worst since 2015, that’s not particularly surprising. Arenado’s 11.2% strikeout rate was one of the lowest in MLB and one of the best in his career, but he also posted his highest-ever infield fly rate — 16.5% of his fly-balls were harmless pop-ups — and recorded some of the worst exit velocity and hard-hit numbers of his career.
Suffice it to say, Arenado’s decline at the plate has been steep. He still possesses plus contact skills but will need to scale back his chase rate and cut out some of those weak pop-ups if he’s to improve in a meaningful way. Fortunately for Arenado, he’s going to a more favorable offensive environment than the one he’s been calling home in St. Louis. While Phoenix’s Chase Field isn’t the hitters’ haven it once was, it plays largely neutral to right-handed power now — a stark gain for Arenado relative to St. Louis’ Busch Stadium, which is the fifth-worst park for right-handed home run power over the past three years, per Statcast’s Park Factors.
Prior to adding Arenado, the Diamondbacks had been involved in the market for Alex Bregman. A match there always seemed like something of a long shot, given Arizona’s intent to reduce payroll in 2026, but the interest was legitimate. The Snakes quickly pivoted and brought in a much more affordable option to hold down the hot corner for the next two seasons. Arenado’s glove has also taken some steps back in recent years, but he’s still an above-average defender. He’ll give manager Torey Lovullo a quality pair of defenders on the left side of the infield, joining breakout shortstop Geraldo Perdomo in that regard.
Acquiring Arenado leaves the Diamondbacks with little opportunity for former No. 6 overall pick and top prospect Jordan Lawlar. Perdomo’s breakout appeared to push Lawlar down the defensive spectrum to third base, but he looked overmatched both with the glove and in the batter’s box during his first few tests against MLB pitching. The D-backs were considering giving him some time in the outfield, and perhaps with Jake McCarthy now in Colorado following this weekend’s trade, there’ll be a clearer path to that experiment. If not, Lawlar has a minor league option remaining and can be sent back to Triple-A (where he’s routinely thrashed opposing pitchers) — or even included in a potential trade package to address needs elsewhere on the roster.
Even with the Snakes looking to cut payroll, the addition of that fraction of Arenado’s contract amounts to little more than a footnote. He’s effectively replacing a league-minimum player, so this trade adds a net $4.2MM to the team’s books. Per RosterResource’s estimates, that brings Arizona’s payroll just north of $170MM. That’s more than $17MM shy of last year’s Opening Day payroll. An exact target isn’t clear, but there should be room to add a reliever or two, at the very least, and further trades could always change the payroll outlook one way or another.
If the money changing hands (and the frequent reporting in the year-plus leading up to today’s trade) wasn’t indicative enough that this amounts to a salary dump for St. Louis, the return should be. Martinez hasn’t pitched an inning in professional ball yet. The Diamondbacks selected him with their eighth-round pick last year out of Arizona State University. His $167K signing bonus checked in south of his No. 243 overall selection’s $223K slot value.
A 6’4″, 215-pound righty, Martinez started his college career playing Division-III ball before transferring twice and ending up in the Sun Devils’ rotation as a senior. He was tagged for a 5.47 ERA through 15 starts during his senior year. It’s not an encouraging number, but Martinez punched out 32.3% of his opponents and can run his fastball up to 97 mph, per MLB.com’s scouting report. He has a four-pitch mix with a changeup serving as his best secondary offering, but Martinez is a pure lottery ticket for the Cardinals’ reshaped player development department.
A year ago, the Cardinals thought they had worked out a trade to send Arenado the Astros. Arenado, however, invoked his no-trade protection to nix that arrangement, reportedly due to reservations about the Astros’ commitment to contending; Houston had just traded Kyle Tucker to the Cubs days prior to the nixed Arenado deal. Heading into the current offseason, Arenado was forthcoming about the fact that he’d be more open-minded to offseason trade scenarios than he was last winter.
That clearly seems to be the case, but the D-backs might’ve been a viable landing spot for him even if he were continuing to remain selective. Arizona may be scaling back payroll, but their signings of Merrill Kelly and Michael Soroka — plus their reported interest in the aforementioned Bregman — all signal a commitment to try to field a contender in 2026. Beyond that, Arenado is a Southern California native with a home in Arizona. There are geographic benefits that surely played into his decision to waive that no-trade clause for a move to the desert.
For the Cardinals, moving Arenado now clears a relatively nominal sum from the long-term books and furthers their goal of creating opportunities for younger players. It remains to be seen whether Arenado’s third base reps will go to Nolan Gorman, top prospect JJ Wetherholt or even former top prospect/third baseman-turned-outfielder Jordan Walker. Whoever takes up regular work at the hot corner will be a more viable long-term option at the position than Arenado is as he enters his mid-30s.
The trade of Arenado is the third of a big-name veteran on a large contract for the Cardinals this offseason. They’ve already traded Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras to the Red Sox. Those players were shipped out in separate deals, with St. Louis eating notable portions of money in those trades, too. Between Gray, Contreras and now Arenado, the Cardinals will be shelling out $59MM over the next two seasons to three players who are no longer on their books.
Eating that amount of money to facilitate the trades of three former All-Stars is unprecedented, but the Cardinals have been clear about their intent to rebuild the organization from the ground up, modernizing the player development department, analytics staff and various other components of the team’s baseball operations setup — all while affording younger and more controllable players the opportunity to establish themselves in the majors. With three pricey veterans gone, much of the heavy lifting has been taken care of, but the Cardinals are still widely expected to trade second baseman Brendan Donovan and left-handed reliever JoJo Romero before the season begins.
Katie Woo of The Athletic first reported that the two sides were in serious discussions. John Gambadoro of 98.7 FM Arizona Sports broke the news that an agreement was in place and added that Martinez was going back to St. Louis. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic first reported details on the cash changing hands.
The Marlins moved another starter, trading Ryan Weathers to the Yankees for four prospects: outfielders Dillon Lewis and Brendan Jones and infielders Dylan Jasso and Juan Matheus. New York already had two openings on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding moves were necessary. Both teams have announced the deal.
It’s the second significant rotation move in as many weeks for Miami. The Fish swapped Edward Cabrera to the Cubs for a package led by rookie outfielder Owen Caissie on Wednesday. It’s surprising to see them pull the trigger on another deal to subtract a controllable starter. Cabrera and Weathers have each had trouble staying healthy, and Miami evidently preferred to stockpile position players over the pair of talented but risky starters.
Weathers, a 26-year-old lefty, is the son of longtime big leaguer David Weathers (who coincidentally was traded from the Florida Marlins to the Yankees at the 1996 deadline). This is the second time that Ryan Weathers finds himself on the move. The Padres selected him with the #7 overall pick in the 2018 draft. He made it to the majors within three years, no small feat for a pitcher who signed out of high school, but struggled in scattered looks with San Diego. The Friars dealt him to Miami at the ’23 deadline for first baseman Garrett Cooper.
The Weathers acquisition came a few months before Miami installed Peter Bendix atop baseball operations. Weathers has shown mid-rotation potential over the past couple seasons but hasn’t been able to put together a full showing. A strained index finger on his throwing hand cost him three months in 2024. He missed the first six weeks last year after suffering a forearm strain during Spring Training. Weathers returned and pitched well over five starts before going down again — this time with a lat strain that knocked him out into September.
Weathers has been limited to 24 starts and 125 innings over the past two years. He turned in a 3.74 earned run average with a solid 22% strikeout rate and lower than average 6.8% walk percentage. Weathers has pushed his average fastball into the 96-97 MPH range and can miss bats with his changeup and sweeper. At full health, he has looked like a potential third or fourth starter. He hasn’t been healthy for more than a couple months at a time since 2023.
Miami and Weathers settled on a $1.35MM salary last week. This offseason was his first of arbitration eligibility. He’ll go through the process at least twice more and won’t hit free agency until the 2028-29 offseason at the earliest. The Yankees are currently in the third tier of luxury tax penalization and taxed at a 95% rate on spending up to $304MM. Weathers’ modest salary means New York only takes on roughly $1.3MM in taxes to add him.
There’s also some roster flexibility, as the southpaw has one minor league option remaining. Weathers should break camp in Aaron Boone’s rotation assuming he gets through Spring Training healthy. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón will open the season on the injured list, while Clarke Schmidt could miss the entire year after last July’s Tommy John procedure. Weathers slots alongside Will Warren and Luis Gil as their projected third through fifth starters behind Max Fried and Cam Schlittler. Any of Weathers, Warren or Gil could be optioned to Triple-A if everyone’s healthy once Rodón and/or Cole return.
The trade should increase Miami’s urgency to add an affordable starter via free agency. Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcantara are the only two locks for Clayton McCullough’s season-opening rotation. Braxton Garrett (internal brace) and Max Meyer (hip surgery) missed most or all of the 2025 season. They’re expected to be ready for Opening Day but should be on innings limits. Journeyman Janson Junk was a decent fifth starter, while Ryan Gusto and Adam Mazur have limited MLB experience.
There’s more upside coming through the pipeline. Highly-regarded prospects Thomas White and Robby Snelling have reached Triple-A. Snelling dominated over 11 starts there and has a strong chance to win a rotation spot out of Spring Training. Former second-rounder Dax Fulton is on the 40-man roster and has also reached Triple-A, though he’s coming off a less impressive season in the high minors.
It remains a high-ceiling group, especially once White and Snelling take the mound at loanDepot Park. They’re short a veteran at the back end whom they can rely upon for some innings. It’s likely they’ll dip into free agency for a starter on a one-year deal, as they did last winter with the Cal Quantrill signing. They should aim a little higher this time around since it’s not out of the question they compete for a playoff spot in 2026. Maybe a multi-year deal candidate like Zack Littell or Nick Martinez winds up dropping into their price range as Spring Training approaches. Jose Quintana, Martín Pérez and former Miami draftee Chris Paddack are all locks for one-year deals and would be more comparable to the Quantrill pickup.
Lewis is the biggest get of the four prospects. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported last week that Miami evaluators were particularly bullish on the 22-year-old outfielder. His name came up in conversations between the teams when New York was pursuing Cabrera. While they didn’t find an agreeable package in those conversations, the Marlins found another way to add Lewis to the system.
A right-handed hitter, Lewis was a 13th-round pick in 2024 out of Queens University of Charlotte. While he didn’t enter pro ball with a ton of fanfare, he impressed pro scouts during his first full season. Baseball America recently ranked him eighth among Yankees prospects, while he slotted 16th in the system at MLB Pipeline.
Evaluators praise his center field defense and big exit velocities that hint at the raw power upside in his 6’3″ frame. He’s coming off a .237/.321/.445 slash with 22 home runs and 26 stolen bases in a pitcher-friendly setting in the low minors. Lewis struck out at a higher than average 23.5% rate, which is concerning for a college draftee who has yet to advance beyond High-A. There’s a decent amount of risk with questions about his hit tool and distance from the majors, but he’s another toolsy outfield pickup for a club that added Caissie last week.
Jones was another late-round college pick in 2024. A left-handed hitting center fielder out of Kansas State, he combined for a .245/.359/.395 line between High-A and Double-A. Jones walked in almost 15% of his plate appearances and stole 51 bases in 60 attempts. He’s listed at 5’10” and doesn’t have Lewis’ physical upside, but scouts praise his approach and speed. Baseball America ranked him 13th in the Yankees system, while he landed 15th on Pipeline’s ranking. There’s a decent chance he ends up as a fourth outfielder.
Jasso, 23, is a right-handed hitting corner infielder who spent last season in Double-A. He had a solid year, batting .257/.326/.400 with 13 homers. Jasso was a 2023 undrafted free agent whose minor league performance landed him in the back third of New York’s top 30 prospects. He should begin the season at Triple-A Jacksonville and could find himself in the MLB mix by the end of the year. He’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next winter.
Miami rounds out the return with Matheus, a 21-year-old shortstop/third baseman out of Venezuela. The switch-hitter put together a .275/.365/.376 line with a 12.3% walk rate and 18.5% strikeout percentage in A-ball last year. Matheus is on the smaller side at 5’10” and hasn’t hit for more than five home runs in a season. He’s a lottery ticket potential utility player who’ll also be eligible for the Rule 5 draft after the ’26 season.
Jack Curry of The Yes Network first reported the Yankees were acquiring Weathers for four prospects. Craig Mish of SportsGrid had the full return. Image courtesy of Jim Rassol, Imagn Images.
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