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White Sox Trade Luis Robert Jr. To Mets

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The long-awaited Luis Robert Jr. trade has arrived. The Mets announced they’ve acquired the former All-Star center fielder from the White Sox for young infielder/outfielder Luisangel Acuña and minor league right-hander Truman Pauley. There’s no cash involved and no corresponding moves because Robert and Acuña were each on the 40-man roster.

This brings an end to what had been years of Robert trade rumors. The White Sox have held their center fielder through multiple rebuilding seasons. In retrospect, they surely wish they’d moved him over the 2023-24 offseason. Robert was coming off a career year and looked like a budding star entering the prime of his career. The past two seasons have been more challenging, as he has battled injuries and struggled while fielding questions about when he would be traded.

Robert was a high-profile prospect when he signed with the Sox out of Cuba in 2017. He commanded a $26MM bonus, the kind of hefty sum for an international amateur that would subsequently be prohibited in the collective bargaining agreement. Robert’s dominant minor league performance further spurred optimism, and the White Sox signed him to a $50MM extension over the 2019-20 offseason. At the time, it was the largest extension for a player who had to make his MLB debut, and it ensured he’d break camp in 2020 without any kind of service time games.

While that year’s schedule would be shortened by the pandemic, Robert popped 11 homers and won a Gold Glove in center field. He placed second in Rookie of the Year balloting. Robert’s numbers jumped in year two, as he hit .338/.378/.567 across 296 plate appearances. A torn flexor tendon in his right hip cost him three months, however, and the blend of tantalizing talent and frustrating durability would be a recurring theme in his career.

Robert had a trio of injured list stints, albeit all for minor issues, the following season. He stayed healthy for almost all of the ’23 campaign and showed the star-level ceiling he possesses at full strength. Robert drilled 38 homers, 36 doubles and one triple across 595 plate appearances. He hit .264/.315/.542 to win a Silver Slugger Award. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued his season around five wins above replacement after accounting for his excellent center field defense.

The White Sox nevertheless went 61-101 and were outscored by 200 runs. It was clear they were amidst a multi-year teardown, but they elected to hang onto Robert when they had four years of affordable contractual control. They could have netted multiple top prospects if they’d shopped him.

Robert’s production has tanked as the team has slogged through two more terrible seasons. He’s a .223/.288/.372 hitter in 856 plate appearances since the start of 2024. He has struck out at a near-30% rate while continuing to battle injuries. The right hip flared up early in the ’24 season and kept him out for two months. A pair of left hamstring strains were the culprit last summer, with the latter costing him all of September.

The physical tools remain encouraging. Robert is one of the fastest players in the league despite the various lower body injuries. He ranks in the 92nd percentile in bat speed, according to Statcast. He’s an aggressive hitter who is always going to have his share of strikeouts. Teams would happily live with a lower on-base percentage if he’s making the kind of power and defensive impact he did during his best days in Chicago.

It’s largely a change-of-scenery bet from the Mets’ perspective. Robert only turned 28 in August and hasn’t shown signs of physical decline. He has spent the past three seasons on one of the worst teams in MLB, fully aware that he’d be traded at some point. A new environment could help him get back on track, although the durability concerns will persist even if his numbers improve.

Robert will at least upgrade the defense and bring some upside on the bases. He has stolen 20+ bags in three straight seasons and went 33-41 in stolen base attempts last year. He should also bring some juice against left-handed pitching, as he’s a career .293/.367/.505 hitter with the platoon advantage. His production against southpaws tanked in 2024 but rebounded last season.

The biggest risk for the Mets is financial. They’re assuming the entirety of Robert’s $20MM salary and committing to a $2MM buyout on a $20MM club option for the 2027 season. It’s not a small amount to spend on a player who hasn’t produced much over the past two years, and that’s before considering the tax implications.

The Mets pay a 110% tax on spending as a three-time repeat luxury tax payor whose CBT payroll is above $304MM. Robert is guaranteed $22MM for one season — the option buyout is guaranteed money — so they’re tagged with a $24.2MM tax hit. It’s a $46.2MM commitment overall, albeit one that comes with the upside of what could be a bargain option in ’27 if Robert hits his ceiling. RosterResource calculate their CBT number around $357MM, putting them on track to exceed last year’s season-ending $347MM mark — which required a $91.6MM tax payment. There’s a good chance they’ll have a tax bill north of $100MM by the end of the ’26 season.

They’ve taken on $64MM in AAV commitments for the 2026 season between the Robert trade and Bo Bichette signing over the past five days. The Mets haven’t wanted to lock themselves into lengthy deals one offseason after the Juan Soto signing. They’ve compensated with significant short-term investments to chase upside. Robert should be the everyday center fielder as long as he’s healthy. That’d push Tyrone Taylor either into a fourth outfield role or as a stopgap in left field if prospects Carson Benge and Jett Williams open the season in Triple-A. It seems likely to take them out of the running on Cody Bellinger, the top unsigned position player.

Although the White Sox missed their opportunity to trade Robert at the apex of his value, they deserve some credit for exercising this year’s option rather than cutting him loose for nothing in free agency. That at least netted them an intriguing depth piece in Acuña, who felt superfluous on the Mets but is a fine target for a rebuilding team.

The younger brother of Ronald Acuña Jr., Luisangel is a former Rangers signee whom the Mets acquired in the 2023 Max Scherzer deadline deal. His bloodlines and previous inclusion in one marquee trade have made him a more well-known prospect than his production probably warrants, but he’s not yet 24 and provides some multi-positional utility for skipper Will Venable.

Acuña signed as a shortstop and has the arm strength to profile on the left side of the infield. There weren’t many shortstop reps available on a team with Francisco Lindor, leading the Mets to bounce him around in a utility capacity. Acuña has plus-plus speed and could be an option in center field as well. He’s splitting his time between shortstop and center field in the Venezuelan winter league, but the majority of his MLB experience has come as a second baseman.

The White Sox shouldn’t have any issue getting Acuña in the lineup even if he’s not expected to push Colson Montgomery off shortstop. He could step into the everyday center field role vacated by the Robert trade or push for second/third base playing time alongside Chase Meidroth, Miguel Vargas and Lenyn Sosa.

The question is whether Acuña will bring enough to the table offensively to warrant playing time once the Sox are better positioned to contend. He’s a .248/.299/.341 hitter in his first 233 MLB plate appearances. Acuña has had a similarly light bat against Triple-A pitching. The right-handed hitter owns a .265/.307/.360 line in more than 700 trips to the plate at the top minor league level. Acuña has solid contact skills but puts a lot of balls on the ground without big exit velocities. He’s a slash-and-dash type hitter whose best current ability is as a runner, where he went 16-17 in stolen base tries over 95 MLB games last year.

Acuña is out of minor league options, so the White Sox will need to keep him on the MLB roster. They wouldn’t have traded Robert for him if they didn’t intend to do so. The lack of roster flexibility was a much bigger hangup for the Mets, who also cannot option Mark Vientos and are unlikely to send Brett Baty back to Triple-A. They knew they’d lose Acuña on waivers but weren’t positioned to offer him the playing time to take a step forward offensively. Chicago can control him through the 2031 season, as Acuña has yet to reach a year of MLB service.

The White Sox also add a low minors arm in Pauley, a 6’2″ righty whom the Mets took in the 12th round of last year’s draft. The Harvard product received an above-slot $400K signing bonus. Baseball America ranked him the #435 prospect in the draft, writing in June that teams like the riding life on his mid-90s fastball and plus spin rates on his breaking ball. Pauley walked more than 15% of opponents with a 4.61 ERA in his draft year. His command will need to take a significant leap if he’s to get to the majors, even as a reliever, but the Sox’s player development team is clearly intrigued by his raw stuff.

From a payroll standpoint, dealing Robert drops Chicago’s projected spending to $67MM. They opened last season around $81MM, so this could free them up for a late-offseason depth addition or two. The Sox could bring in a veteran middle reliever and/or a fourth outfielder whom they’d try to flip for another lottery ticket prospect in the Pauley mold at the deadline.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first on the trade terms. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported that the Mets were assuming the full salary. Respective images courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, Jay Biggerstaff of Imagn Images.

Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones Elected To Hall Of Fame

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The Baseball Writers Association of America announced that Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones have been elected to the Hall of Fame. They’ll be inducted into Cooperstown alongside Jeff Kent, who was elected by the Era Committee, on July 26. Beltrán appeared on 84.2% of ballots, while Jones got to a 78.4% vote share.

Beltrán gets the honor in his fourth year. The switch-hitting outfielder was the only player who fell between 70% and 75% on last year’s ballot. His positive trend lines made it a near lock that he’d surpass the 75% threshold this winter.

The Royals drafted Beltrán, a native of Puerto Rico, in the second round in 1995. He reached the big leagues as a September call-up three years later and ranked as one of the sport’s top prospects going into his first full season in 1999. Scouting reports projected him as a potential five-tool center fielder, and Beltrán lived up to that billing immediately.

He hit .293/.337/.454 with 22 homers and 27 stolen bases during his debut campaign. Beltrán was the runaway choice for American League Rookie of the Year, the first of many accolades he’d accrue over the next two decades. Injuries and a sophomore slump limited his playing time in 2000, but Beltrán reestablished himself as one of the sport’s best outfielders the following year. He’d hit above .300 in two of the next three seasons, earning his first top 10 MVP finish behind a .307/.389/.522 showing in 2003.

The roster around Beltrán was not nearly as strong. A small-market Kansas City franchise was unlikely to re-sign him, making him a top trade chip as he entered his final season of club control. The Royals dealt Beltrán, a first-time All-Star, to the Astros midway through the ’04 season. He appeared on the National League roster — Houston was then an NL team — and finished 12th in MVP balloting despite spending the first three months in the American League. Beltrán hit .258/.368/.559 with 23 homers in 90 regular season games for Houston.

His introduction to the postseason couldn’t have gone any better. Beltrán batted .435 with eight homers in 12 playoff games, helping Houston to within one game of a trip to the World Series. The Astros would go on to win the pennant one year later, but Beltrán had moved on in free agency by that point. He signed what was then a franchise-record deal with the Mets: seven years and $119MM.

Beltrán’s first season in Queens was a bit of a disappointment, but he rebounded with arguably the best season of his career in 2006. He hit a career-best 41 home runs and drove in a personal-high 116 runs with a .275/.388/.594 slash line. Beltrán won his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger awards while finishing fourth in MVP voting. Baseball Reference credited him with eight wins above replacement, the best mark of his career. He remained a force into the playoffs, batting .278 with a .422 on-base percentage over 10 games.

For the second time in three years, Beltrán’s team lost the seventh game of an NLCS battle with the Cardinals. The ’07 Mets famously melted down in September to squander the NL East title to the Phillies. They wouldn’t return to the playoffs during Beltrán’s tenure, yet there’s no doubt they got their money’s worth from the free agent investment. Beltrán played in 839 games while hitting .280/.369/.500 with 149 homers over six and a half seasons in a Mets uniform.

The club also netted a top pitching prospect named Zack Wheeler when they traded the impending free agent to the Giants in 2011. He raked down the stretch with San Francisco, but they narrowly missed the postseason between their World Series wins in 2010 and ’12. Beltrán signed a two-year deal with the Cardinals the following year. He hit .282/.343/.493 over his time in St. Louis, but his impact again was brightest in the postseason. Beltrán was a stellar playoff performer in both years.

Beltrán signed a three-year contract with the Yankees over the 2013-14 offseason. He remained an above-average hitter over his time in the Bronx, albeit without the defensive value he’d had for the majority of his career. He made it back to the playoffs in 2016 after being dealt to the Rangers at the deadline. Beltrán finished his career on a one-year contract to return to the Astros.

The final season in Houston wound up leaving Beltrán with a complicated legacy. He was an integral part of the team’s sign-stealing operation that wasn’t publicly revealed until a few seasons thereafter. Beltrán wasn’t much of an on-field contributor at age 40, but he collected his first World Series ring when the Astros won their first title in franchise history.

Beltrán’s role in the sign-stealing scandal became public over the 2019-20 offseason. He had just been hired by the Mets as manager a few months earlier. He stepped down and forfeited his salary once the operation became public. Beltrán has remained involved in the game in less prominent roles, working as a television analyst with the YES Network and spending the past few seasons as a special assistant in the Mets’ front office. He’s also in charge of building the roster for the Puerto Rican national team at the upcoming World Baseball Classic.

The sign-stealing scandal probably delayed Beltrán’s entry to Cooperstown. His statistical résumé made him a very strong candidate to get in on the first ballot. He finished his playing days with a .279/.350/.486 batting line. He hit 435 home runs, stole 312 bases, and drove in nearly 1600. Baseball Reference valued his career at 70 WAR, which doesn’t even account for his playoff excellence. Jay Jaffe’s JAWS metric has him as a top 10 center fielder of all time. Whatever trepidation some voters may have had about honoring him within the first couple years on the ballot, the end result is that he’s headed to Cooperstown to cement his legacy as one of the best center fielders to play the game.

That’s also the case for Jones, who ranks 11th among center fielders by the same JAWS calculation. He gets in on his ninth year on the ballot, one season after receiving 66% of the vote. A native of Curacao, Jones signed with the Braves as an international amateur and flew through the minor leagues. He was the #1 prospect in the game when he reached the majors in the second half of the 1996 season. Jones stepped seamlessly onto a loaded Atlanta roster that was midway through their run of dominance in the National League. They were coming off a championship and would head back to the Fall Classic in ’96.

A 19-year-old Jones embraced the big stage, hitting .345 with a trio of home runs in October. That included a two-homer showing in Game 1 against the Yankees, and he remains the youngest player ever to hit a World Series home run. The Braves won the first game but wound up dropping the series in six.

Jones played mostly right field during his first full season. He hit .231 with 18 homers in 153 games and finished fifth in NL Rookie of the Year balloting. He really took off the following year, kicking off a decade-long run as the sport’s best defensive outfielder and a premier power threat. Jones hit 31 homers while batting .271/.321/.515 and earning his first Gold Glove in 1998. That was his first of seven 30-homer campaigns and, more remarkably, the start of a streak of 10 consecutive Gold Glove awards.

He’d start all 162 games for the Braves in 1999, playing elite defense while batting .275/.365/.483 with 26 homers and 35 doubles. The Braves made it back to the World Series after losing the NLCS in the prior two seasons. They were again knocked off by the Yankees, this time in a sweep. Jones didn’t have great playoff numbers over that stretch but remained one of the league’s best players in the regular season. He hit 36 homers in a 2000 season which Baseball Reference valued at eight wins above replacement, a career high that ranked fourth in MLB among position players.

Jones earned an eighth-place MVP finish in 2000 and very likely would have finished higher had today’s defensive metrics been around at the time. He reeled off another three 30-plus homer seasons after that, narrowly dropping below that cutoff with a 29-homer showing in 2004. He rebounded with his most impressive offensive performance in ’05, as he slugged an MLB-best 51 longballs and led the National League with 128 runs batted in. Jones won a Silver Slugger for the first and only time and finished as the MVP runner-up behind Albert Pujols. It was a narrow split, as Pujols received 18 first-place votes against Jones’ 13. (Third-place finisher Derrek Lee received the other one.)

The righty hitter remained an impact run producer the following season, as he slugged 41 more home runs with a career-high 129 RBI. That was his last impact season, as his rate stats dropped in 2007. The Braves let him depart in free agency at season’s end, and he was essentially finished as an everyday player at age 31. Jones played parts of five more seasons between the Dodgers, Rangers, White Sox and Yankees. He didn’t record more than 64 hits in any of his final five campaigns.

While it was a precipitous decline, Jones had one of the more impressive peaks in baseball history. He hit 368 home runs with a .263/.342/.497 batting line between his debut and the end of his age-30 season. Retroactive defensive metrics come with significant error bars, but FanGraphs estimates he was roughly 134 runs better than an average defender during that stretch. That’s 25 runs clear of the second-place finisher at any position (Adrian Beltré) and certainly aligns with both his impressive accolades and scouting evaluations that consider him among the best outfield defenders in MLB history. Jones is one of six outfielders to win 10 Gold Gloves. He’s alongside Roberto Clemente, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr., Al Kaline and Ichiro in that company and now, in Cooperstown.

Jones finished his career as a .254/.337/.486 hitter. His 434 homers place him one behind Beltrán for sixth among center fielders and tied with Juan González for 49th regardless of position. He nevertheless had a lengthy stay on the ballot as some voters struggled with his lack of production after he left Atlanta. Others may have withheld a vote on moral grounds, as Jones pleaded guilty to domestic battery charges and paid a fine after his wife alleged that he put his hands around her neck in December 2012. That came after the end of Jones’ MLB career, though he subsequently played two seasons in Japan to finish his professional playing days.

While Jones will certainly go into the Hall as a Brave, Beltrán had a nomadic enough career to consider a few options for his plaque. The Hall of Fame has final say but works with the player to choose which cap they’ll don. Beltrán tells Bob Nightengale of USA Today that while no decision has been finalized, he’s likely to go into Cooperstown as a Met.

Looking further down the ballot, Chase Utley’s 59% vote share was the highest among the candidates who were not elected. That’s up 20 points relative to last winter. It puts Utley, who has been on the ballot for three years, on track for eventual enshrinement — with an outside chance that he gets in as soon as next year. No other candidate appeared on more than half the ballots.

Of this year’s first-time candidates, only Cole Hamels (23.8%) received more than the 5% necessary to remain under consideration. All but one player who fell off the ballot was up for consideration for the first time. The lone exception is Manny Ramírez, who drops off after coming up short in his 10th year. Ramírez’s history of performance-enhancing drug use (including a failed test) made him a non-starter for many voters, and he appeared on fewer than 40% of ballots in his final year. His only path to enshrinement is via the Era Committees, and their decision last month on Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens makes it difficult to see a scenario where Ramírez ever gets in.

Next year will be the final consideration for Omar Vizquel, who has no chance of jumping from 18% to induction. Buster Posey and Jon Lester headline a class of first-time candidates that’ll also include Ryan Zimmerman, Kyle Seager, Brett Gardner and Jake Arrieta. Posey seems likely to get serious consideration for first-ballot induction, while Lester should easily have enough support to get more than 5% and remain on the ballot for future seasons.

Full voter breakdown courtesy of BBWAA. Respective images via USA Today Sports.

Cardinals Showing Interest In Austin Hays

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The Cardinals are among the teams that have expressed interest in free agent outfielder Austin Hays, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Heyman has previously linked Hays to the Yankees, Mets and Royals this offseason.

St. Louis president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said over the weekend that the team was open to adding a righty-hitting outfielder. Bloom’s comments came in response to a fan question about Harrison Bader, yet Hays seems more in line with the kind of player the Cardinals would target. Bader should be able to command a multi-year deal on a team that’d play him every day in center field, where St. Louis probably wants to continue giving Victor Scott II a chance to develop offensively.

Hays is likely to sign for much more cheaply on a one-year deal. He’d be more of a rotational corner outfield piece, ideally used most often as a short side platoon bat. He’s a career .282/.340/.479 hitter in a little over 800 plate appearances versus lefty pitching. The 30-year-old owns a slightly below-average .253/.301/.416 line in 1816 trips to the plate against right-handers. Last year’s splits were even more extreme, as Hays had a .949 OPS against southpaws and a .708 mark without the platoon advantage.

The Cardinals have the lefty-hitting Scott in center field and another left-handed bat, Lars Nootbaar, lined up to play left field. Nootbaar could be traded this offseason and seems more likely than not to move by the deadline. Alec Burleson is another left-handed hitter with ample corner outfield experience, but he’s expected to be the primary first baseman after the Willson Contreras trade.

Righty-swinging Jordan Walker will probably get another chance in right field, but he has a minor league option remaining and hasn’t found any kind of sustained MLB success. Prospect Joshua Baez, another righty bat, and lefty-hitting depth options Nathan Church and Bryan Torres are also on the 40-man roster. Hays has played exclusively left field over the past couple seasons. The Cardinals are also among the teams looking at Miguel Andujar, who offers a similar skillset but will probably be a little more expensive coming off an excellent finish to the 2025 season with Cincinnati.

Mets Sign Bo Bichette

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January 20: Bichette’s physical is complete and the Mets have officially announced the signing. They’ll hold a press conference on Wednesday afternoon to introduce their new star.

January 16: The Mets wasted little time in changing gears after missing out on the offseason’s top free agent. They’ve reportedly agreed to a massive three-year, $126MM contract with free agent infielder Bo Bichette. The Vayner Sports client can opt out of the contract after this season and after the 2027 campaign, and if he chooses to do so he’ll pick up an additional $5MM bonus. The contract does not contain any deferred money and affords Bichette a full no-trade clause.

It’s a stunning and near-immediate pivot for a Mets club that is barely 12 hours removed from losing out on Kyle Tucker, who just last night went to the Dodgers. Los Angeles outbid the Mets’ reported four-year, $220MM deal with a four-year, $240MM contract that gives Tucker two opt-out opportunities (post-2027 and post-2028). Having missed on that big swing, the Mets now pivot to the market’s next-best bat and next-best all-around free agent, bringing Bichette in on a $42MM annual value that ties Zack Wheeler for the sixth-largest in MLB history.

In landing Bichette, the Mets are not only pivoting from Tucker in arguably the most notable way possible — they’re also keeping him from a division rival that had emerged as the ostensible frontrunner. Bichette met with the Phillies earlier this week, and made him a seven-year offer worth around $200MM. They believed they were close to a deal last night, but the Tucker decision prompted a pivot from the Mets, who swooped in and stole him from their rivals. Bichette now lands a mammoth annual value that could grow even further (via that $5MM bonus) if he opts out and returns to the market next winter, ahead of what would still be only his age-29 season.

Though the fit isn’t necessarily as clean as Tucker would have been for a Mets club that already had a deep infield and was lacking in outfielders, Bichette adds a clear plus bat to manager Carlos Mendoza’s lineup. The 27-year-old (28 in March) has been a well above-average hitter in all but one of his seven major league campaigns — a 2024 season that was cut short by multiple calf injuries and a broken finger standing as the lone exception.

Bichette hit just .225/.277/.322 in 80 games during that awful 2024 campaign. He not only bounced back in 2025 but turned in arguably the best performance of his career on a rate basis, slashing .311/.357/.483 with 18 home runs in 628 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+ (134), it was Bichette’s best season since his late call-up during the 2019 campaign (MLB’s juiced-ball season).

Even on its surface, Bichette’s 2025 season looks excellent. It doesn’t tell the tale of his finish, though, which had both positives and one very obvious negative. Bichette actually had a tepid start to his 2025 campaign. The underlying batted-ball data through his first month-plus was strong, but he hit just .275/.316/.363 through the first week of May. From that point forth, Bichette caught fire. Over his next 457 plate appearances, he laid waste to opposing pitchers at a .325/.372/.528 clip. That was 50% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+, and even that doesn’t fully do justice to Bichette’s jaw-dropping summer; over his final 238 plate appearances, the second-generation All-Star went supernova with a .381/.437/.591 slash (187 wRC+).

Unfortunately for both Bichette and the Blue Jays, that previously mentioned “very obvious negative” struck in early September when he suffered a sprained posterior cruciate ligament in his knee and missed the remainder of the regular season. He was also inactive for the early rounds of postseason play, only returning in the World Series. Bichette was clearly hobbled during the Fall Classic, limping to first base with ’88 Gibson-esque speed when putting the ball in play and displaying a lack of range at a new position: second base. Bichette’s shortstop glovework has been panned for years, and the Jays took the downtime as an opportunity to shift the defensively superior Andres Gimenez over to shortstop in his absence.

Despite the clearly injured knee, Bichette’s bat didn’t miss a beat in the World Series. He went 8-for-23 with seven singles and a titanic three-run homer off Shohei Ohtani in Game 7 of the World Series. Had the Jays’ bullpen managed to hold the lead, that would-be game-winner would have trailed only Joe Carter’s walk-off blast in franchise lore. Of course, that’s not how the game turned out, but Bichette’s 442-foot bomb still served to further underscore that even at less than 100%, he was a clear impact bat.

Bichette now carries a lifetime .294/.337/.469 batting line with him to Queens. He’s been 20-35% better than an average hitter every season of his career with the exception of that 2024 outlier, and this past season’s 14.5% strikeout rate was a career-low. He couples those plus-plus contact skills with above-average power and high-end batted-ball data; Bichette averaged 91 mph off the bat this past season (72nd percentile), and his 48.8% hard-hit rate sat in the 83rd percentile of big league hitters.

The question for Bichette and the Mets is how well he can handle a move to third base. His shortstop deficiencies were largely due to sub-par range. He doesn’t have a plus throwing arm necessarily, but it’s closer to average — at least in terms of the average velocity on his throws, as measured by Statcast — than was the case with his bottom-of-the-scale lateral movement. Bichette averaged 82.3 mph on his throws across the diamond last year — below par in MLB but still an upgrade (at least in terms of pure arm strength) over the man he’ll be replacing at the hot corner, Brett Baty (81.2 mph). Bichette may not be a plus defender at third, but even average defense coupled with his bat and good health would result in All-Star output.

Baty could now bounce between multiple positions. He’s played second base and left field in the past, and the Mets would surely be open to experimenting with him at first base, too. The designated hitter slot provides more opportunities for all. It’s a similar range of possibilities to the one faced by Jorge Polanco, who inked a two-year, $40MM deal last month. Polanco will reportedly be used extensively at first base and designated hitter despite having virtually no prior first base experience.

For a team that has preached run prevention for much of the offseason, lining up with Bichette at third base and Polanco/Baty at first probably isn’t how they drew things up originally — but the offseason is a layered beast that rarely unfolds in alignment with even the best-laid plans. Even if the Mets’ infield defense (and outfield defense, for that matter) is lacking, it’ll be solid up the middle thanks to Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien. It should also be a highly productive offensive unit — particularly if Semien’s bat can bounce back at all.

Of course, the addition of Bichette also makes a potential trade of Baty — and several other infielders — more likely. Clubs seeking third base help include the Mariners, Angels and Pirates (as explored at length yesterday), among others. Any could show interest in Baty, Mark Vientos, Luisangel Acuña and/or Ronny Mauricio. Acuña, Vientos and Mauricio have all reportedly been available throughout the offseason anyhow. Some form of move seems likely, especially when considering both Acuña and Vientos are out of minor league options and looking to bounce back from poor seasons.

From a payroll vantage point, the Bichette contract is all the more staggering. Not only is the $42MM annual value the sixth-largest ever, it’s also only a fraction of what the Mets will actually have to pay due to this signing. New York was already on the cusp of the top tier of luxury penalization. Bichette catapults them $33MM north of that final cutoff point, per RosterResource’s estimates. They’ll pay a 95% tax on the first roughly $9MM of his annual value and a full-freight 110% tax on the remaining $33MM. Assuming an even distribution of his $126MM over the three-year term, the Mets would be paying more than $86MM for Bichette in 2026 alone. If he triggers that $5MM bonus upon opting out next winter, that’d also be subject to a 110% tax, bringing the Mets’ total bill on Bichette to about $97MM for just one year.

Moreover, the signing underscores the minimal amount that many big-market, CBT-paying clubs care about paying the 110% tax on short-term deals marquee players. The Dodgers’ signing of Tucker — just as will be the case with Bichette’s deal — has rekindled public outcry for a salary cap, but the players will likely only use these deals to illustrate the discrepancy between the middle and upper class of free agents; the union will surely argue that a cap would only further expand that gap and point out that half the money paid by CBT offenders is redistributed to other teams (in addition to standard revenue-sharing). That won’t fly with small-market owners, who’ll argue that they can’t compete with this type of expenditure. Both sides will dig in their heels.

It’s also fair to wonder whether this is a short-term blip or a burgeoning trend. Even big-market clubs seem increasingly against long-term contracts. For years, it was the Dodgers who tended to prefer short-term, high-AAV deals. But we’ve now seen the Mets limit their Tucker offer to four years and go three super-premium years on Bichette — while also declining to go beyond three years for Pete Alonso or Edwin Diaz. The Red Sox clearly prefer the trade market to free agency and surprised onlookers by even extending to five years to sign Ranger Suárez. The Yankees have reportedly been stuck on five years for their offer to Cody Bellinger while he seeks a seven-year term. Giants ownership publicly voiced an aversion to signing any pitchers to long-term contracts.

If baseball is indeed moving more toward NBA-style contracts — short term, ultra-high annual value — it’d mark a dramatic shift for a sport whose top players have overwhelmingly (albeit not always) preferred the stability of long-term arrangements, even if that means sacrificing some money on an annual basis. Time will tell, but that will all factor into both parties’ approach at the negotiating table next winter in an offseason that is widely expected to be impacted by a lockout and transaction freeze.

Turning back to the teams directly impacted by today’s signing, the Mets will part with their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft as well as $1MM of space from next year’s bonus pool for international amateur free agents. That’s due to the fact that Bichette declined a $22.025MM qualifying offer. By that same token, the Blue Jays will be compensated with an extra pick. That selection will come after the fourth round of this summer’s draft — the lowest possible compensation — due to Toronto’s status as a luxury tax payor.

For the Jays, parting with Bichette has at least seemed possible throughout the winter but began to look more certain once they signed star NPB third baseman Kazuma Okamoto and plugged him into an already crowded infield. There was still some room for Bichette to return, but Toronto’s focus has reportedly been on Tucker. With Bichette now formally out of the picture, they’re lined up to go with Ernie Clement at second base, Gimenez at shortstop and Okamoto/Addison Barger at third base.

As for the Phillies, they’ve made their own immediate pivot, upping their offer to give longtime catcher J.T. Realmuto the third year he’s sought. Less than two hours after the Bichette agreement broke, Realmuto and the Phillies had a new deal in place. Philadelphia had reportedly only been comfortable signing one of Bichette or Realmuto, with the recent preference seeming to be the former. A Bichette signing would likely have led to Realmuto going elsewhere and one of Alec Bohm or Bryson Stott being traded. Trading either feels less likely — but certainly not impossible — now that Bichette is in Queens and Realmuto is staying put.

Even Bichette himself will now have major questions to consider in the near-term future. With a big season, he’ll assuredly opt out of his contract, cashing in $47MM (or thereabouts, depending on the division of salary) for one year and re-entering the market as a 28-year-old who can’t receive a qualifying offer. If he can do that and prove himself capable of playing an average or better third base, he could come out hundreds of millions ahead. That’s far from a given, though, and he’ll need to make that decision against the backdrop of a looming work stoppage.

It’s a dizzying sequence of interwoven, high-priced payouts for star players — the ramifications of which will reach further than we can accurately predict at this time. It seems clear that the Mets have at least one move coming with regard to their infield glut, and they’re still in search of help both in the rotation and in the outfield. With Tucker and Bichette coming off the board within a matter of 15 hours, Cody Bellinger suddenly stands as the top position player available — possibly with several clubs now keying in on him and providing more pressure for the incumbent Yankees to bridge the gap between their five-year offer and his seven-year ask. Will Bellinger similarly pivot to a short-term, high-AAV contract? If so, will that be in the Bronx or with a new club?

Questions abound, and there are surely several moves yet to be made, but the Mets are a more talented and more dangerous team now than they were this time yesterday — even if it’s not due to the player they were originally targeting. Their pivot is likely only just beginning, but adding a prime-aged, multi-time All-Star who has twice led the American League in hits is a pretty good first step in a pivot.

Will Sammon of The Athletic first reported the agreement and contract length. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman added the total guarantee and no-trade clause. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic added details regarding the opt-outs and lack of deferrals. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported that Bichette was likely to play third base in Queens.

Dodgers Outright Ryan Fitzgerald

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The Dodgers sent infielder Ryan Fitzgerald outright to Triple-A Oklahoma City, according to the MLB.com transaction log. He cleared waivers after being designated for assignment last week when they finalized their one-year deal with Andy Ibáñez. The Dodgers still need to make a 40-man roster move once they announce the Kyle Tucker contract.

Los Angeles will keep Fitzgerald around as non-roster depth. The lefty-hitting utilityman hadn’t cleared outright waivers before, nor does he have the three years of MLB service to elect free agency. This was probably the planned sequence for the Dodgers, who only claimed Fitzgerald from Minnesota a week earlier.

Fitzgerald debuted last season as a 31-year-old rookie. He played in 24 games, hitting .196 but popping four homers and stealing a base. The Creighton product had a nice year with Minnesota’s top affiliate, batting .277/.367/.469 across 245 plate appearances. Fitzgerald has a more modest .245/.333/.440 batting line over five Triple-A seasons divided between the Boston, Kansas City and Twins’ systems.

The Dodgers will presumably give Fitzgerald a look in big league camp as a non-roster invitee. He’s unlikely to win an Opening Day spot but will provide multi-positional depth in the upper minors. Fitzgerald can play anywhere on the dirt and has experience at all three outfield positions as well, though he has been a full-time infielder for the past two seasons.

Rangers Re-Sign Josh Sborz To Minor League Deal

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The Rangers announced today that they have signed right-hander Josh Sborz to a minor league deal. The McNamara Baseball Group client also receives an invite to big league camp in spring training.

Sborz, 32, returns to the team he has spent the past five years with. The highlight of that tenure was 2023. Sborz had an unimpressive 5.50 earned run average that season but the underlying marks were better. His 7.9% walk rate was a bit better than average and his 30.7% strikeout rate was very strong. A small 56% strand rate seemed to push some extra runs across, which is why his 3.75 FIP and 3.05 SIERA were much more optimistic.

Things corrected in a big way in the postseason. Sborz gave the Rangers 12 innings over 10 appearances, only allowing one earned run while striking out 13, making him one of most impactful players in the club’s championship.

Things have been a bit more rocky since then, however. Rotator cuff/shoulder issues hampered him throughout 2024 and he only pitched 16 1/3 innings that season. He underwent a debridement surgery in November of that year, a procedure that was expected to sideline him for the first two or three months of the 2025 campaign. His rehab from that surgery didn’t progress as quickly as hoped and he ended up missing the entire season.

The Rangers could have retained Sborz for 2026 via arbitration. Players usually see their salary hold steady when they miss an entire season. As such, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Sborz for the same $1.1MM figure he made in 2025. Texas decided not to tender him a contract, sending him to free agency instead.

For the club, there’s no harm in bringing Sborz back via a non-roster pact. They can bring him into camp and see if he can get some of his velocity back. That was an issue for him last year but he’s now further removed from the surgery.

This is the second straight offseason wherein the Rangers have tried to build a competitive bullpen while working around budgetary issues. Last year, they gave one-year deals worth $5.5MM or less to Chris Martin, Hoby Milner, Luke Jackson, Jacob Webb and Shawn Armstrong. Most of those pitchers performed fairly well but they also became free agents, putting the Rangers back in a similar spot this winter.

So far, they have reunited with Martin and also signed Jakob Junis, Alexis Díaz and Tyler Alexander. All of those deals have been worth $4MM or less. Those guys will be in the bullpen alongside incumbents like Robert Garcia and Cole Winn, with Rule 5 pick Carter Baumler in the mix. Sborz will try to force his way into the picture and back onto the Texas roster.

Photo courtesy of Jerome Miron, Imagn Images

Rich Hill Not Planning To Play In 2026

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Left-hander Rich Hill doesn’t want to use the word but it seems to be leaning towards retirement. Appearing on the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast, Hill was asked by host Rob Bradford if he was retiring and said “I don’t have any plans on playing next year.” The situation is somewhat analogous to that of Joe Kelly, who announced on the same podcast last month that he didn’t want to use the word “retire” but wasn’t planning on playing anymore.

“I’m looking for open possibilities to stay in the game of baseball and be a contributory factor,” Hill continued. “I enjoy the work aspect of whatever it might be that’s next. I think that’s one thing that… why athletes get hired in other positions and other… outside of sports is because they are highly-driven people that want to succeed. And that’s something that I’m looking forward to.”

It’s not shocking that Hill is slowly wafting into the next stage of his career. Though he did pitch in the 2025 season, he was easily the oldest player in the league. He was 45 years old when he suited up for the Royals and will turn 46 in March. Though he has continued pitching to an age when most other players have called it quits long ago, he did so with some unconventional approaches. He waited until midseason to sign in 2024 in a deliberate attempt to be more fresh for a stretch run.

If this is indeed the end, it will wrap up one of the more unique arcs of a player in recent history. Hill was drafted by the Cubs way back in 2002 and made his major league debut in 2005. He didn’t find immediate success but had a really good season in 2007, posting a 3.92 earned run average over 32 starts.

But from there, he went into a really challenging period of his career. He struggled with results and health for many years, leading him to be bounced between the majors and minors and between various different organizations. From 2008 to 2014, he tossed a total of 153 innings split between the Cubs, Baltimore, Boston, Cleveland, the Angels and Yankees. He posted a 5.41 ERA over that stretch.

2015 would turn out to be an incredible comeback season. He started the year on a minor league deal with the Nationals. He opted out of that contract in June and signed with the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League. He made just two starts for that club but struck out 21 opponents in 11 innings. That was enough to get him back into affiliated baseball via a minor league deal with the Red Sox.

Boston called him up in September and he made four starts as the season was winding down. In those, he logged 29 innings with a 1.55 ERA. He had a mammoth 34% strikeout rate, a tiny 4.7% walk rate and a strong 48.4% ground ball rate. That was a tiny sample size but the Athletics made a bet on it, signing Hill to a one-year, $6MM deal for 2016. That wager paid off handsomely, with Hill giving the A’s 14 starts with a 2.25 ERA.

At that year’s deadline, he was traded to the Dodgers alongside Josh Reddick, with the A’s getting Frankie Montas, Grant Holmes, and Jharel Cotton in return. Hill gave the Dodgers six starts with an ERA of 1.83 and then three postseason starts with a 3.46 ERA.

The Dodgers were happy enough with that showing to bring Hill back via a three-year, $48MM contract. That was a pretty staggering deal for a 37-year-old who was not too far removed from being in indy ball but it worked out well. He logged 327 innings over those three seasons with a 3.30 ERA, plus 37 postseason innings with a 2.43 ERA.

After that deal ran its course, Hill went into his 40s and mercenary mode. He signed a series of one-year deal with the Twins, Rays, Red Sox and Pirates. In 2023, he seemed to wear down as the season went along, not surprising for a 43-year-old. His 4.76 ERA with Pittsburgh was still respectable but he collapsed after a deadline deal to the Padres, posting an 8.23 ERA after the swap.

As mentioned, he then tried to think outside the box to continue as an effective big league pitcher. He planned to intentionally sign at midseason in 2024 in order to spend more time with his family and also save his bullets for the second half and postseason. He stayed unsigned until inking a minor league deal with the Red Sox in August. He did get called up but only for four relief appearances before being released. In 2025, he signed a minor league deal with the Royals in May. He got called up in July but was designated for assignment after just two starts.

Given the unusual shape of his career and his willingness to buck conventions, it’s possible he’ll change his mind and find his way back to the mound. But if Hill doesn’t make it back to the majors, he will finish with 1,418 innings tossed over 388 games for 14 different clubs. In that time, he posted a 4.02 ERA but will likely be best remembered for the 2015-2021 run which saw him post a 3.15 ERA in his late 30s and early 40s. Baseball Reference pegs his career earnings over $75MM, most of that coming to Hill in his late-career surge. We at MLB Trade Rumors salute him on a fine career, which may or may not be done, and wish him the best on whatever is next.

Photo courtesy of Peter Aiken, Imagn Images

Orioles Sign Hans Crouse To Minor League Deal

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The Orioles announced Tuesday that they’ve signed right-hander Hans Crouse to a minor league contract. Ty Daubert of Phillies Nation first reported the signing and added that Crouse will be a non-roster invitee in Orioles camp this spring. He’s represented by Wasserman.

A second-round pick by the Rangers back in 2022, Crouse ranked among the sport’s top pitching prospects in the 2019-20 offseason. Texas included Crouse alongside Kyle Gibson and Ian Kennedy in a 2021 trade with the Phillies, netting then-top prospect Spencer Howard and fellow minor leaguers Kevin Gowdy and Josh Gessner. Crouse spent several seasons in the Phillies system and made a brief MLB debut with the ’21 Phillies but has spent the past two seasons in the Angels organization after landing there in ’24 as a minor league free agent.

Crouse has pitched a total of 32 1/3 innings in the majors between Philadelphia and Anaheim. He’s posted a shiny 3.34 ERA in that time, but the rest of his numbers don’t support that small-sample earned run average. Crouse has an impressive 25.9% strikeout rate but has also walked a gruesome 17.3% of the 139 batters he’s faced in the majors (in addition to plunking a pair). He’s navigated that glut of free passes not by erasing them with double plays — Crouse has just a 22.7% grounder rate in the majors — but thanks to good fortune on balls in play (.192 BABIP).

In 69 1/3 career innings at the Triple-A level, Crouse has an ERA close to 6.00, though that number is skewed by a 2022 season in which he served up 18 earned runs in only 12 1/3 innings. That minimal innings total in Triple-A comes despite pitching parts of five seasons there. He’s been hampered by injuries throughout his career. Crouse has undergone surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow, required thoracic outlet surgery in 2023 and also missed most of the 2022 season due to a torn tendon in his right biceps.

Earlier in his career, Crouse showed a power heater that climbed to the upper 90s and helped him miss bats in droves. He’s fanned 33% of his opponents in Triple-A and 28% of his overall opponents in pro ball. More recently, following all those injury troubles, his velocity has been pedestrian. He sat 93.3 mph with his heater in his most recent full season of Triple-A ball in 2024, and sat 95.3 mph in his lone Triple-A frame last season.

There’s little harm in bringing Crouse aboard on a non-guaranteed deal, but his days a starter are surely behind him. At this point he’s a no-risk bullpen flyer with a big track record of missing bats but an even bigger injury history.

Rangers Designate Dom Hamel For Assignment

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The Rangers announced that right-hander Dom Hamel has been designated for assignment. That’s the corresponding move for right-hander Jakob Junis, whose one-year deal with Texas is now official.

Hamel, 27 in March, has never pitched for the Rangers. He was just claimed off waivers from the Mets in late September, during the final weekend of the regular season. He stuck on the roster for a few months but has now been squeezed off.

His major league track record is one of the smallest possible. He tossed one scoreless inning for the Mets on September 17th. He was then designated for assignment and claimed by the Orioles. Baltimore put him back on waivers a few days later, which is when the Rangers claimed him.

Hamel came up as a starting pitcher in the Mets’ system but struggled with control. He was primarily used as a multi-inning reliever in 2025 with some encouraging results. He tossed 67 2/3 Triple-A innings over 31 appearances. 11 of those were technically starts but were mostly of the opener variety. His 5.32 earned run average wasn’t especially impressive but his 25.2% strikeout rate was above average. Perhaps more importantly, given his past issues with control, he only walked 7.4% of batters faced.

He did allow 12 home runs in that time, which helped push more runs across the board. Despite those issues with the long ball, he generated enough interest to be claimed off waivers twice late last season.

The Rangers will now have a week to determine his next steps. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so they could field trade interest over the next five days. Hamel still has a couple of options remaining, which could help him land elsewhere as a depth piece. If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, he would stick with the Rangers as non-roster depth since he does not have a previous career outright nor three years of big league service time.

Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images

Mariners, Bryce Miller Avoid Arbitration

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The Mariners announced that they have avoided arbitration with right-hander Bryce Miller by agreeing to a one-year deal with a club option for 2027. Miller will make a $2.4375MM salary in 2026, according to Adam Jude of The Seattle Times. The club option is worth $6.075MM and has a $15K buyout, so Miller is guaranteed $2.4525MM, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The club option is voided if Miller finishes in the top five of Cy Young voting in 2026. He will still be controllable via arbitration through 2029 regardless of how the contractual situation plays out.

Miller was one of 18 players who did not have a deal in place when the arbitration filing deadline passed earlier this month. He just qualified for arbitration for the first time this offseason as a Super Two player, meaning he will go through the process four times instead of the standard three. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a $2.4MM salary. Miller filed at $2.625MM and the Mariners at $2.25MM.

A gap of just $375K is a drop in the bucket for a major league baseball club but it compounds when looking at the bigger picture. A player’s subsequent trips through arbitration see his salary grow as a percentage of where he started. Therefore, a $375K gap can actually lead to a swing of millions over three years, or four in this case.

Most teams these days adopt a “file and trial” approach, which means they cut off negotiations of one-year deals after the filing deadline. This is to give them leverage in pre-deadline talks and also to prevent players from filing absurdly high numbers in an attempt to set out an aggressive bargaining stance. An arbiter can only pick the player’s or the team’s number, not a midpoint.

Even if a team does have a “file and trial” policy, exceptions are made for deals that are longer than one year, even if that extra year is an option. That gives the club a path to avoid a potentially contentious hearing while sticking to their policy, in a sense. A deal with an option can’t be used as a comparison point in future arb hearings as well, which is a factor.

Arbitration hearings are generally viewed as part of the business but occasional situations have cropped up where the relationships between a player and a team appeared to have been damaged. Three years ago, Corbin Burnes said as much in the wake of his hearing with the Brewers. Miller and the Mariners have staved off any possibility of that scenario by meeting roughly in the middle between their two filing numbers.

As mentioned, the club option is mostly a measure to avoid this agreement being used as a future comp. Even if it is voided or turned down, Miller would remain under club control through 2029 via arbitration.

There will now be no more than 16 hearings this year. Since the 18 players filed earlier this month, Cade Cavalli and the Nationals reached a new agreement and now Miller is off the list as well. Miller was the last Mariner in the arb class without a determined salary, so the club is now wrapped in that department.

Photo courtesy of Steven Bisig, Imagn Images

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