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Ha-Seong Kim Out Four To Five Months Following Hand Surgery

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The Braves announced this afternoon that infielder Ha-Seong Kim suffered a hand injury while in South Korea and underwent surgery to repair a torn tendon in his right middle finger. The procedure was performed today in Atlanta and the expected recovery time is 4 to 5 months, per the announcement. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports that Kim suffered the injury after falling on ice.

It’s a brutal revelation for the Braves, who claimed Kim off waivers from the Rays back in September in hopes of luring him to Atlanta for the 2026 season as well. While he opted out of his player option for the 2026 campaign, he eventually re-signed with the Braves on a one-year, $20MM deal back in December. Bringing Kim back into the fold was one of their biggest splashes this winter, alongside the addition of Robert Suarez to the back of the bullpen. Kim also figured to address perhaps the biggest weakness of their entire roster; the team’s 54 wRC+ at shortstop last year was dead last in the majors, and their 0.4 fWAR at the position bested only the Guardians and Rockies. When healthy, Kim is a reliable three-to-four win player thanks to his roughly league average bat and phenomenal defense.

More to come.

Red Sox “Remain Active” In Efforts To Upgrade Catching Tandem

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While much of the focus for the Red Sox this offseason has been on their efforts to upgrade the rotation and fill out their corner infield mix, the team has also been connected to a number of catchers in recent months. They were reportedly involved in the market for J.T. Realmuto throughout the winter before he returned to Philadelphia on a three-year deal, and the team was also connected to Victor Caratini shortly before he signed on with the Twins on Friday. Those efforts to improve behind the plate don’t seem to be going away, as Sean McAdam of MassLive reported today that the team “remain[s] active” in their attempts to upgrade behind the plate after the signing of Caratini, who he emphasizes they were “very much involved” in the market of.

Those efforts shouldn’t be taken as a knock against Carlos Narvaez, who turned in an impressive 2025 season that earned him a sixth-place finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting thanks to a combination of league average offense at the plate and elite defense behind it. It seems likely that Narvaez would remain the primary catcher in Boston even if they were to find another backstop to bring into the mix. That said, there’s certainly signs Narvaez could use more support if the Red Sox are going to maximize his effectiveness. Narvaez caught 952 innings last year, ninth-most among catchers in 2025. While that’s not quite as much as the most used regulars like Realmuto and William Contreras, Narvaez still caught nearly 200 more innings than fellow rookie backstop Drake Baldwin.

That’s not terribly meaningful on its own, but given that Narvaez slumped badly at the plate in the second half with a .187/.233/.387 slash line after the All-Star break it’s fair to wonder if a lighter defensive workload could allow Narvaez to maintain his offensive numbers deeper into the season without a similar fall-off in 2026. Getting Narvaez off his feet more often could be easier said than done, however, thanks to the shakiness of Boston’s catching situation behind him. Connor Wong is currently set to serve as the club’s primary backup. He’s always been a lackluster defender behind the plate, however, and last year slashed just .190/.262/.238 in 188 trips to the plate.

It shouldn’t take someone like Caratini or Realmuto to upgrade over that paltry production. With that being said, the market for catching in free agency is exceptional thing now that those two (and old friend Danny Jansen) have signed. Gary Sanchez and Jonah Heim are among the best catchers still available in free agency at this point, and it’s fair to wonder if the Red Sox see either as a substantial upgrade. Perhaps a turn to the trade market could be in the cards, as McAdam notes that the Red Sox have previously discussed both Dalton Rushing with the Dodgers and former Red Sox prospect Kyle Teel with the Red Sox. Neither of those talks appeared to gain much traction, but it’s entirely possible the team could continue to look to the trade market for catching help over the final weeks leading up to Spring Training.

The Royals have been frequently attached to Jarren Duran in trade talks, but the team appears pessimistic on their chances to land him and would surely balk at including top prospect Carter Jensen in a package for his services, while prospect Blake Mitchell might be too far from the majors for Boston’s tastes. The Yankees have previously seemed open to shopping J.C. Escarra, though they might be more hesitant to do so now that Ben Rice appears poised to take over first base full-time after bouncing between first base, DH, and catcher last year. Perhaps the Phillies would be willing to part with Rafael Marchan now that Realmuto is back in the fold, or the Twins’ signing of Caratini could clear a path for Ryan Jeffers to be dealt.

Even if some of those names are available, however, the Red Sox might also find themselves outbid in the market for catching help by teams like the Rays and Astros that appear to have a larger need behind the plate. As lackluster as Wong’s production was last year, he was an above-average hitter as recently as 2024 and it’s certainly not impossible to imagine him bouncing back. If the Red Sox don’t find the right deal, they could always just add a depth piece like Matt Thaiss or Luke Maile in free agency on a minor league deal and plan on Wong opening the season as Narvaez’s backup.

Royals “Increasingly Unlikely” To Trade For Jarren Duran, Brendan Donovan

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The Royals have been fairly active this offseason on the trade market and have already worked out deals that brought outfielder Isaac Collins (alongside righty Nick Mears) and lefty setup man Matt Strahm to Kansas City. They’ve explored bigger trades than those throughout the winter as well, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported recently that the club is “increasingly unlikely” to be successful in their efforts to trade for either Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran or Cardinals utility man Brendan Donovan. While that doesn’t completely rule out the club pulling off one of those deals, it’s surely disappointing news for Royals fans who had been dreaming on a big trade.

Upgrading the team’s lackluster outfield mix has been a priority in Kansas City this winter, and either Duran or Donovan surely offer a big boost. Duran is a full-time outfielder who has experience in both left field and center field, and would likely play center for the Royals if acquire. That would push Kyle Isbel into a depth role and move Lane Thomas over to right alongside Jac Caglianone. Donovan, meanwhile, is capable of playing all over the infield and outfield. If acquired, he’d likely split time between the outfield corners and second base. That would cut into playing time for Collins in left field, Caglianone in right field, and Jonathan India at second base while also moving Thomas into a timeshare with Isbel in center.

Either of those situations would substantially improve the Royals’ lineup, but it seems a deal coming together is a long shot at this point. That’s not necessarily a shock. The team’s top trade chip at this point might be southpaw Kris Bubic, but both Duran and Donovan are valuable enough that it would be hard to see them being moved for a rental player. Other pitchers on the roster like Cole Ragans and Noah Cameron would surely be more attractive, but taking a long-term piece out of the rotation that’s helped buoy the Royals to their solid 2024 and ’25 seasons (alongside Bobby Witt Jr.’s emergence as a superstar) seems like a tough pill for the team to swallow.

Without further additions, that would leave the team with Collins as the regular left field, Isbel in center, Caglianone in right, and Thomas spelling Isbel and Caglianone against left-handers. Dairon Blanco, Kameron Misner, and Drew Waters are depth options as well, though none is a lock to make the Kansas City roster at this point. It’s hard to see that group being anything more than below average, as the Royals posted the worst wRC+ in the majors (73) on the grass last year. Collins (122 wRC+) should be a substantial improvement over the production the club got out of left in 2025, and Caglianone could certainly take a step forward after a tough rookie campaign. But Thomas’s 48 wRC+ last year makes it hard to count on him offering impact to the team, while Isbel and the depth pieces seem unlikely to take meaningful steps forward.

Of course, Donovan and Duran aren’t the only ways the team could improve its offense. Perhaps a free agent like Mike Tauchman or Austin Hays will fall through the cracks and be available for relatively cheap later this offseason. It’s also possible that a different trade could come together. Players like Luis Robert Jr. of the White Sox, Jesus Sanchez of the Astros, and Ramon Laureano of the Padres have all found themselves in trade rumors this year, and while none has been directly connected to the Royals at this point it would certainly make sense for Kansas City to check in. Given the team’s pursuit of Donovan, perhaps even an infielder who could either take up a utility role themselves or push India into that sort of role could make sense. Cubs infielders Nico Hoerner and Matt Shaw and Yankees second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. are among the players who have seen their names pop up in rumors lately, as have the Mets’ many young infield talents. Trade whispers in Queens, specifically, may only grow louder in the aftermath of the club’s recent signing of Bo Bichette.

Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Cade Cavalli

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10:15am: Cavalli will make $862.5K in 2026, according to a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. The club option is worth $4MM and comes with a buyout of $7.5K, guaranteeing Cavalli $870K in total.

9:14am: The Nationals announced this morning that they have avoided arbitration with right-hander Cade Cavalli. The sides agreed to a one-year deal today that includes a club option for the 2027 season. Financial details of the deal are not yet clear. Cavalli was one of 18 players to exchange filing figures with his team after failing to reach an agreement prior to the deadline earlier this month. Cavalli filed at $900K, while the Nationals filed at $825K.

That $75K gap between the two sides was the smallest among the 18 players and teams to exchange figures. Even with such a tiny gap in negotiations, however, there was no guarantee that an arbitration hearing would be avoided. Teams overwhelmingly subscribe to the “file and trial” approach towards arbitration at this point, and the Nationals are no exception. Teams tend to hold a firm line in arbitration negotiations and are willing to fight over even small amounts of money. That’s partially because player salaries tend to build off themselves throughout arbitration, and even a small pay bump in an early year of arbitration can snowball into much larger gains for the player three or four years down the road. In addition, arbitration hearings are so focused on precedent that offering one player a salary above the usual range can create an outlier case for players and agents to use as a comparison point in future hearings.

In this case, the Nationals and Cavalli have bridged the gap by using a loophole in the arbitration system. By attaching a club option to the deal, it technically becomes a multi-year arrangement that cannot be used as a reference point in future arbitration negotiations and hearings. Without the cloud of creating a new precedent hanging over the negotiations, the Nationals were surely more comfortable being flexible with Cavalli and were more motivated to avoid what could have been a messy arbitration hearing that runs the risk of damaging the club’s relationship with a former top prospect who could remain a key part of their team for years to come.

Looking ahead to 2026, Cavalli will attempt to build off of a 2025 season where he made it back to the majors for the first time since 2022 and delivered a decent 4.25 ERA across ten starts. He struck out 18.3% of his opponents while walking 6.8%. Solid underlying metrics, including a 4.09 SIERA, suggest that Cavalli could be a solid mid-rotation arm for the Nationals next year even if him reaching the ace-level ceiling fans in D.C. were surely dreaming on when he was selected 22nd overall in the 2020 draft appears unlikely at this point. Cavalli will join MacKenzie Gore (assuming he isn’t traded before the season begins), Foster Griffin, and Brad Lord among the team’s likely starters headed into the years. Josiah Gray, Jake Irvin, and Mitchell Parker are among the possible options to fill out that group.

Bloom: Cardinals “Have Room” For Right-Handed Outfielder

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The Cardinals’ Winter Warmup fan event is this weekend, and newly-minted president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom took questions directly from fans as part of the festivities. As noted by Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, one of those questions was about former Cardinals (and current free agent) Harrison Bader’s availability on the market. In his response to that question, Bloom suggested that the same has “room” for a right-handed outfielder on the roster before acknowledging that Bader is a possibility to fill that void. Bloom declined to discuss Bader’s asking price, or any other specifics of contract talks.

It’s worth emphasizing that Bader, 32 in June, was the direct subject of the question Bloom was asked. That makes him being named as a potential fit less meaningful than it would be in other circumstances, though he would certainly be a solid addition for the club that took him in the third round of the 2015 draft. Bader ended his Cardinals career back in 2022, when he was traded to the Yankees in exchange for Jordan Montgomery over the summer. He left the Cardinals with a career .246/.320/.409 slash line, good for a wRC+ of 98. That roughly average offense was paired with elite defense in center field and a handful of stolen bases, and the outfielder was coming off a particularly strong 2021 campaign where he won a Gold Glove in center field and posted a 108 wRC+ with 16 homers in just 103 games.

Bader has generally struggled since leaving St. Louis, with lackluster stints playing for the Yankees, Reds, and Mets across the 2023 and ’24 seasons. With that being said, however, 2025 proved to be a career year for him. After signing with the Twins, he spent most of his time in left field out of deference to incumbent star Byron Buxton, but Bader managed to make up for the drop down the defensive spectrum with his bat. He hit a respectable .258/.339/.439 during his time in Minnesota, then kicked things up a notch when he was traded to Philadelphia and moved back to center field. Over his final 50 games last season, Bader slashed an excellent .305/.361/.463. That brought his overall season line up to .277/.347/.449 (122 wRC+) in a career-high 146 games, with 17 homers, 11 stolen bases, and +7 Outs Above Average.

It was a very impressive season, to be sure, and in a free agent class that lacks much right-swinging outfield talent it was enough to make a multi-year deal a reasonable ask for Bader as he reached the open market. Early in the offseason, a reunion with the Phillies seemed like the most likely outcome, but the team instead opted to bring Adolis Garcia into the fold to round out their outfield mix. With Garcia poised to patrol right and top prospect Justin Crawford likely to open the season in center field, there isn’t much room for Bader in the Philadelphia outfield mix at this point. Bader’s market has been fairly quiet outside of those early rumors of a Phillies reunion, which could open the door for a team like the Cardinals to try and be opportunistic.

St. Louis is far from the only team that stands out as a plausible fit for Bader, of course. Reunions with the Mets and Yankees could make sense, as well, particularly if Cody Bellinger winds up signing elsewhere. The Royals, Rays, and Guardians could use outfield help, but might not have the resources to mount a substantial pursuit of Bader. The Diamondbacks and Giants have a bit more financial muscle to flex and could theoretically make room for an outfield addition, but may prefer to stick with their internal options. Austin Hays, Miguel Andujar, Chas McCormick, and Randal Grichuk are among the alternatives to Bader available in free agency for teams looking for a right-handed outfielder this winter.

Reds Receiving Trade Interest In Starting Pitchers

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The Reds’ excellent rotation was the biggest reason behind the team’s return to the playoffs in 2025, and rival teams have taken notice of this talent and depth.  The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes that Cincinnati is still getting trade inquiries about its starters, and while the Reds “remain open to the possibility if the return improves them for the present and future,” this high asking price might scare off a number of suitors.

Indeed, it might be that not much has changed on the pitching front since October, when president of baseball operations Nick Krall said he “wouldn’t say no” to the idea of dealing from the rotation.  As Krall added, however, “when you trade pitchers you’ve got to go (back)fill them somehow.  We all know how it works, where you run out of innings at some point in the season, guys get hurt, things happen.”

A few weeks later, both Krall and manager Terry Francona further downplayed the idea that Hunter Greene in particular would be available at the right price, with Krall noting “That’s a hard one to actually say, ’Hey, we’re going to trade the guy that has a chance to be the ace of your staff and top-of-the-rotation guy going into the postseason.’  We’re looking to figure out how to get better, but right now that’s not on the table.”

Continuing that thread, Rosenthal writes that “rival clubs doubt their big arms are truly available,” in reference to Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Andrew Abbott.  Greene is signed to an extension through at least the 2028 season, Lodolo has two years of arbitration control remaining, and Abbott is controlled through 2029 and is still a year away from reaching arbitration eligibility.  Brady Singer has been more widely mentioned as a potential trade chip since he is a free agent next offseason, but Rosenthal feels the Reds would want both an MLB-ready starter and a bat for Singer’s services, which seems like a tall order.

As good as Cincinnati’s rotation was in 2025, the group is already down a couple of arms since Nick Martinez and Zack Littell are free agents.  Chase Burns is one of baseball’s top pitching prospects and is penciled into the fifth starter’s role for 2026, and another top-100 prospect in Chase Petty is in the mix.  Beyond these top six starters, however, the Reds have more young depth but a lot of injury-related question marks.  Forearm and oblique problems limited Rhett Lowder to 9 1/3 minor league innings and no time in the majors last year, and Julian Aguiar and Brandon Williamson missed all of 2025 while recovering from Tommy John surgeries.

Like Krall implied, the “you can never have enough pitching” mantra might alone be enough to make the Reds wary about trading any of their starters and depleting the team’s clear strength.  On the flip side, moving a starter (even one of the top three arms) for a premium return would allow Cincinnati to address multiple roster holes, particularly within the team’s lineup.

The Reds haven’t done a ton to upgrade their average-at-best offense, as the team has added JJ Bleday and Dane Myers while trading Gavin Lux.  Cincinnati’s pursuit of Kyle Schwarber was an outlier based on Schwarber’s status as a local product, so the team’s limited payroll will likely preclude any more major expenditures unless some other money is moved off the books (i.e. Singer’s $12.75MM salary for 2026).  For now, the Reds are primarily counting on internal improvements for lineup help, which is a risky endeavor in an NL Central that keeps getting more competitive.

Ryan Pressly Announces Retirement

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Two-time All-Star reliever Ryan Pressly has decided to retire after 13 Major League seasons.  In a statement to The Athletic’s Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal, Pressly said his decision is “bittersweet, but what a ride it’s been….The friendships — from bullpen brothers to vets who mentored me along the way — those bonds last a lifetime.  I’ll miss the banter in the ‘pen, the inside jokes that kept us loose on those high-leverage nights.  But I’m fired up for this next chapter with my family, and chasing whatever adventure comes next.”

Pressly retires with a 3.33 ERA, 25.2% strikeout rate, 48.5% grounder rate, and 7.2% walk rate over 691 1/3 career innings with the Twins, Astros, and Cubs.  Since the start of the 2013 season, only six pitchers have appeared in more games than Pressly, who made 667 trips from the bullpen to the mound.

Never a big velocity pitcher, Pressly succeeded thanks to an excellent slider-curveball combination, and a ton of spin on both his curve and fastball.  From 2017-25, Pressly ranked in no less than the 99th percentile of all pitchers in curveball spin, and no less than the 95th percentile in fastball spin rate.  These fantastic spin rates helped Pressly miss a lot of bats, and turn a lot of hard contact into easy outs on the ground.

Originally an 11th-round pick for the Red Sox back in the 2007 draft, Pressly never pitched for Boston at the MLB level, as the Twins plucked him out of Boston’s farm system in the 2012 Rule 5 Draft.  Pressly had never even pitched at the Triple-A level before making his big league debut with Minnesota in 2013, but he hit the ground running with a 3.87 ERA over 49 games and 76 2/3 frames, immediately establishing himself as a multi-inning bullpen workhorse.

Injuries and a couple of stints in the minors interrupted Pressly’s time with the Twins, but his solid work saw him receive more high-leverage opportunities.  By the time Minnesota dealt Pressly to Houston at the 2018 trade deadline, the right-hander was acting as the Twins’ set-up man, and he continued that role in the Astros’ relief corps.  Pressly was outstanding down the stretch for the Astros in 2018, and his excellent work as a set-up man in 2019 earned Pressly his first All-Star nod.

This led to another promotion to the closer’s job in 2020, kicking off a four-year stint that saw Pressly record 102 saves in 118 chances while recording a 2.99 ERA, 31.5% strikeout rate, and 6.2% walk rate.  Despite this high-profile role on a playoff regular, Pressly’s success flew somewhat under the radar — perhaps because he never received many free agent headlines since the Astros kept (wisely) extending him.

Pressly inked a two-year, $17.5MM deal in advance of the 2019 season that became a three-year, $27.5MM deal after he reached enough appearances to trigger a vesting option for the third year.  In April 2022, Pressly signed another extension that ended up paying him $42MM over a three-year span (2023-25) once he hit another vesting threshold.  While it’s possible Pressly might’ve banked a bit more money if he’d tested the open market, he was very happy playing close to home (Pressly hails from Dallas and his wife is from Houston) and playing for a frequent contender.

The Astros’ regular trips to the postseason allowed Pressly the chance to shine on the biggest stages in baseball, and he delivered with a 2.78 ERA over 45 1/3 career playoff innings, including a streak of 22 2/3 innings without allowing an earned run.  Pressly’s run in Houston was highlighted by the team’s World Series title in 2022, and he threw the final inning of the Astros’ combined no-hitter in Game 4, and he picked up the save in both Game 5 and the clinching Game 6.

Despite Pressly’s continued success at closer, the Astros chose to double down on their relief depth by acquiring Josh Hader during the 2023-24 offseason, which resulted in Pressly’s return to a set-up role.  While he continued to pitch well, his $14MM price tag got a bit too hefty for an Astros team trying to limit its luxury tax bill, and Pressly agreed to waive his no-trade protection to approve a deal to the Cubs last winter.  Unfortunately for Pressly, he struggled in what ended up being his final MLB season, and Chicago released the reliever in August.

It was a little surprising that Pressly didn’t catch on anywhere following the release, and both the Twins and Astros were reportedly considering reunions.  Retirement was apparently an option for Pressly even over the summer, however, and after some time to weigh the decision, he has decided to walk away from the game at age 37.

We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Pressly on an excellent career, and we wish him the best in his post-playing endeavors.

NPB’s Orix Buffaloes Sign Sean Hjelle

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The Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced this week that they’ve signed former Giants right-hander Sean Hjelle. He had elected minor league free agency at the beginning of the offseason.

Hjelle was a second-round pick out of the University of Kentucky in 2018. It’s fitting that he landed with San Francisco, as the 6’11” hurler is listed alongside Jon Rauch as the tallest players in MLB history. Hjelle’s long limbs get him good extension down the mound, albeit not quite at the level one might expect. The downhill angle leads him to generally work lower in the zone with a sinker, as he essentially doesn’t throw a four-seam fastball. He has used a sinker, knuckle-curve and cutter as his three pitches at the MLB level.

The 28-year-old Hjelle has gotten ground-balls at a lofty 56% rate over parts of four big league seasons. He hasn’t missed many bats, and the Giants moved him into a long relief role after the 2023 season. Hjelle soaked up 80 2/3 innings of 3.90 ERA ball two seasons ago but wasn’t much of a factor last year. He only made 12 big league appearances, giving up 13 runs across 15 innings. The Giants designated him for assignment around the trade deadline and sent him outright to Triple-A when he cleared waivers.

Hjelle pitched well in the minors over the course of the season. He tossed 67 2/3 frames, turning in a 3.06 ERA in the Pacific Coast League. He struck out nearly a quarter of opponents with a 55% ground-ball percentage while limiting his walks to a tidy 5.6% clip. Rather than settling for a minor league deal with a Spring Training invitation, he’ll lock in a stronger guarantee in his first move to an Asian league. Hjelle could build back as a starting pitcher in Japan.

Cubs, Yacksel Rios Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Cubs are in agreement with reliever Yacksel Ríos on a minor league deal, reports Francys Romero. The MAS+ Agency client had elected minor league free agency at the beginning of the offseason.

Ríos is a 32-year-old righty who has logged parts of six seasons in the majors. The Puerto Rico native got the majority of his work early in his career as a member of the Phillies. He saw more limited action with the Pirates, Mariners, Red Sox and Athletics between 2019-23. Ríos has spent the last two seasons in the Mets organization without getting a look at the MLB level.

That’s in large part due to health concerns. Ríos had a 3.30 ERA over 30 Triple-A innings in 2024 before suffering an injury towards the end of June. He missed the remainder of the season and essentially all of 2025. Ríos pitched in the low minors on a rehab assignment but didn’t make it back to Triple-A until the middle of September. He gave up four runs in his first appearance, then tossed a perfect frame with a strikeout to close his season.

Ríos owns a 6.32 ERA in a little less than 100 innings at the big league level. He has tossed 200 1/3 frames of 4.13 ERA ball with a 24.5% strikeout rate in his Triple-A career. Ríos averaged 97 MPH on his fastball during his brief Triple-A work last year. He’s unlikely to get serious consideration for an Opening Day job but should work as a hard-throwing depth piece for Triple-A Iowa.

Blue Jays Met With Framber Valdez In November

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Fresh off a run to the World Series, the Blue Jays have been very active on the free agent market. They signed top free agent starter Dylan Cease to a seven-year deal and also brought in Kazuma Okamoto, Tyler Rogers, and Cody Ponce. The past few days have not gone in their favor, though. Toronto was one of the top suitors for Kyle Tucker and offered him $350MM over ten years before he signed with the Dodgers. They also hoped to re-sign Bo Bichette, but he opted for a short-term, high-AAV deal with the Mets yesterday.

After coming up short on Tucker and Bichette, it’s plausible the team could shift their focus back to adding more pitching. Lefty Framber Valdez remains available, and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that the Blue Jays met with him at the GM meetings back in November. Nicholson-Smith clarifies that the meeting was before Cease’s signing, but there was mutual interest between the two sides at the time.

Valdez has so far been publicly linked to the Orioles, Giants, Mets, and Red Sox. The Orioles’ interest was reported even after they signed Pete Alonso for $155MM over five years. The Giants are more interested in a short-term deal, while the Mets reportedly prefer to add pitching via trade. The Red Sox also Met with Valdez in November, but they may no longer be a fit after signing Ranger Suarez and trading for Sonny Gray and Johan Oviedo.

As for the Blue Jays, their current interest in Valdez is unclear, as is their ability to fit him into the payroll. RosterResource has their 2026 payroll at $282MM and their CBT payroll at $310.5MM, which puts them over the maximum luxury tax line of $304MM. While their offer for Tucker would have carried a $35MM AAV plus a $31.5MM luxury tax bill, he may have been a special case as the clear top hitter on the market.

Meanwhile, Valdez is older than all three of Tucker, Bichette, and Cease. He was predicted to land a five-year, $150MM deal on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list. As a second-year luxury tax payor, the Jays would owe $27MM in tax penalties on that $30MM AAV, making Valdez a $57MM total cost in 2026 if they were to sign him. He also rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros, so he would cost the Jays their second- and fifth-highest draft picks in 2026. With a projected rotation of Cease, Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Ponce, it’s possible that Valdez is both too expensive and more of a want than a need for Toronto.

Of course, none of that takes away from Valdez’s track record. From 2022-25, he was worth 16.5 fWAR, which was fifth-best among qualified starters between Gausman and Cease. A lot of that success has come from Valdez’s suppression of home runs and exceptional groundball rates. In those four seasons, his 0.68 HR/9 is tied for fifth-best among qualified starters. His groundball rate of 60.0% is tops among starters with at least 500 innings. For Valdez, that number has never dipped below 54.2% in a full season.

He has also built a reputation for durability. Valdez’s 767 2/3 innings since the start of 2022 are second-most in the majors behind only Giants ace Logan Webb. This past year was more of the same. In 31 starts with the Astros, Valdez pitched 192 innings with a 3.66 ERA, a 58.6% groundball rate, and an above-average 14.8% K-BB rate.

He did show some signs of wear as the season went on, posting a 5.20 ERA in 71 innings in the second half. The last two months were especially rough. In August, Valdez only struck out 12.8% of hitters. In September and October, he became uncharacteristically homer-prone, allowing six long balls in 27 2/3 innings (1.95 HR/9). On the positive side, his sinker remained a dominant pitch, with a run value of 15 according to Statcast as well as above-average vertical break. While a long-term deal would take Valdez into his mid-30s, he should at least maintain a strong floor thanks to his durability and extreme groundball tendencies.

The market has been solid for pitchers looking for long-term deals. Cease was coming off an uneven walk year with the Padres and still got seven years from the Jays. Suarez just got five years and $130MM from Boston, matching our contract prediction in length and outdoing it by $15MM in value. Tatsuya Imai is perhaps the only starter expected to get a long-term deal who settled for a shorter pact (three years, $54MM with the Astros). Age aside, Valdez has a lengthy track record and should do better than Imai, at least in terms of AAV.

Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images

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