The Rangers are in agreement with free agent catcher Danny Jansen on a two-year, $14.5MM deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The contract includes another $1MM in bonuses.
More to come.
Blue Jays, Tyler Rogers Agree To Three-Year Deal
The Blue Jays are in agreement with free agent reliever Tyler Rogers on a three-year, $37MM contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal, which is pending a physical, includes an $11MM vesting option for the 2029 season, specifics of which have not been reported. Toronto has a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move. Rogers is represented by Frontline Athlete Management.
Rogers, who’ll celebrate his 35th birthday next week, secures a sizable payday to pitch at the back of the Toronto bullpen. One of the sport’s most distinctive pitchers, Rogers is a soft-tossing submariner who bided his time awaiting an MLB opportunity. He was a 10th-round pick by the Giants in 2013 who signed for $7,500 after his senior season at Austin Peay State University. Rogers spent the next six years in the minor leagues, performing well all the way up through Triple-A but without the raw stuff to get the attention of the big league club.
It wasn’t until the end of Rogers’ third full season in Triple-A that he received an MLB look. He was nearing his 29th birthday and close to calling it quits to pursue a career as a firefighter (as Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area covered in 2020). The Giants finally gave him an opportunity at the end of the ’19 season. Rogers tossed 17 2/3 innings of three-run ball to hold his roster spot. He broke camp the following year and has never gone back down to the minors — not even on a rehab stint.
Rogers has played six-plus seasons in the big leagues without going on the injured list. While there’s obviously some luck involved in avoiding any fluke injuries, it’s clear that his underhand delivery puts less stress on his arm. Rogers has made 403 appearances since the start of the 2020 season. That’s 30 more than any other pitcher. Most of those outings have come in high-leverage situations, as his arm angle continues to flummox hitters.
After posting a 4.50 earned run average as a rookie, Rogers has turned in a 3.04 mark or better in four of the past five seasons. He ranks near the bottom of the league in whiffs and has never posted a league average strikeout rate. That’s to be expected for a pitcher who throws an 82-83 MPH sinker and a sweeping breaking ball that clocks in around 74 MPH. It’s a profile designed for weak, ground-ball contact. Rogers gets that year after year, and he almost never puts batters on via base on balls.
While some pitchers with extremely low arm slots can struggle with opposite-handed batters, that hasn’t been an issue for Rogers. He has held lefties to a .235/.289/.336 line in 776 career plate appearances. Right-handed hitters haven’t fared much better, turning in .246/.282/.350 mark in nearly 1000 trips to the plate.
Rogers has spent the bulk of his career in San Francisco, including a two-year stretch where he overlapped with twin brother Taylor Rogers. The Giants fell out of contention shortly before the trade deadline and flipped the impending free agent to the Mets for middle reliever José Buttó and prospects Blade Tidwell and Drew Gilbert. Rogers continued churning out results in his new home, pitching 27 1/3 innings of 2.30 ERA ball. He finished the season with a career-best 1.98 earned run average behind a 62.1% grounder rate while leading MLB with 81 appearances.
The Mets unsurprisingly wanted Rogers back, but they balked at what turned out to be a surprisingly lucrative contract. He more than doubled MLBTR’s prediction of a two-year, $18MM deal. New York has also seen Edwin Díaz, Gregory Soto and Ryan Helsley sign elsewhere. They’ve added Devin Williams to close but will need to find multiple setup arms from the right side.
That’s the role Rogers should continue to fill with the Jays. Toronto was open to supplanting Jeff Hoffman in the ninth inning, but they didn’t come away with any of Díaz, Raisel Iglesias or Robert Suarez. Rogers had a brief run as San Francisco’s closer in 2021 but has otherwise been a setup man. He was fourth in MLB with 32 holds this past season and handily leads the majors in that category over the last six years. Rogers joins Louis Varland as the top leverage arms in front of Hoffman.
The Jays could still look to add a better left-hander than Brendon Little, but Rogers becomes the fifth member of their projected bullpen who cannot be optioned to the minor leagues. Hoffman, Yimi García and Eric Lauer all have the five-plus years of service time to refuse any minor league assignment. Tommy Nance is out of options. Varland can be optioned but certainly isn’t in jeopardy of being sent down. If the Jays have all six starters healthy going into the season, that’d leave only one spot for Little or another left-handed acquisition. That’s to say nothing of the out-of-options Justin Bruihl and Rule 5 picks Angel Bastardo and Spencer Miles — all of whom have an uphill battle to stick on the roster.
Those are secondary considerations for an all-in Toronto team. The $12.333MM average annual value pushes their estimated luxury tax number to $294MM, as calculated by RosterResource. That’s already easily a franchise high before considering the possibility that they add Kyle Tucker or bring back Bo Bichette.
That’ll be their second straight season paying the competitive balance tax. They’re hit with a 42% tax on spending between $264MM and $284MM and taxed at a 75% rate from $284MM to $304MM. Any spending above the final threshold comes with a 90% penalty. The Rogers deal will come with an approximate $8-9MM tax bill. It also firmly pushes them beyond the $284MM mark at which their top pick in the 2027 draft is moved back by 10 spots (though that was basically inevitable after the Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce signings).
It’s a significant investment in a 35-year-old reliever. The Braves also went to three years, at $15MM annually, to sign Suarez on Thursday. That was the first three-year contract for a reliever that age since 2020. There hadn’t been a three-year term at more than $10MM per season for a 35-year-old bullpen arm since Mariano Rivera almost two decades ago. A closer who sits around 99 MPH, Suarez breaking that precedent wasn’t as surprising. The Jays are betting on Rogers’ unconventional style to age equally well.
Image courtesy of Kyle Ross, Imagn Images.
Phillies To Sign Bryse Wilson
The Phillies have a deal in place with right-hander Bryse Wilson, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. It’s unclear if it’s a major league or minor league pact for the Pro Edge Sports Management client. The Phils have multiple 40-man vacancies, so they won’t need to make a corresponding move even if this is a big league deal.
Wilson, 28 in December, has worked both as a starter and a reliever in his career. He has appeared in 163 games over the past eight big league seasons, 57 of those being starts, having suited up for Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and the White Sox. He has logged 461 innings over those eight seasons, allowing 4.82 earned runs per nine. His 16.6% strikeout rate is quite low but he has limited walks to a 7.5% clip.
He’s coming off a rough season. He signed a one-year, $1.05MM deal with the White Sox. He had just been cut loose by the Brewers and presumably hoped that signing with a rebuilding club would give him a path to carving out a nice role and showcasing his abilities. Instead, he posted a 6.65 ERA over 47 1/3 innings. He was passed through waivers unclaimed twice during the year. While in the minors, he posted better numbers. He tossed 48 2/3 Triple-A innings with a 4.25 ERA, 20.5% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 53.8% ground ball rate.
It’s possible the Phils want Wilson to serve in a swing role, logging multiple innings out of the bullpen with the occasional spot start. They signed Spencer Turnbull for a role like this in 2024 and Joe Ross in 2025.
As of this moment, the Phillies have a rotation that consists of Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker. It’s possible that Wheeler begins 2026 on the injured list while he recovers from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. While he’s out, prospect Andrew Painter could take a rotation job but Painter had a 5.40 ERA in Triple-A last year and still hasn’t made his major league debut.
It’s possible that the Phils get to the end of spring training and decide Painter needs more time in Triple-A. If Wheeler or anyone else needs some time on the injured list, then they would need someone else to step up. Wilson could potentially take a rotation spot and then bump into long relief when Painter forces his way in or Wheeler or whoever else gets healthy.
Wilson is out of options, meaning he can’t be sent to the minors easily. However, he has less than five years of big league service time. That means that, if he has a 40-man roster spot at the end of the year, the Phils could decide to retain him beyond 2026 via arbitration.
Photo courtesy of Patrick Gorski, Imagn Images
Mariners Closing In On Deal With Andrew Knizner
5:05pm: The two sides are closing in on a deal, reports Adam Jude of The Seattle Times, but it’s still not finalized.
4:15pm: The Mariners are in conversations with free agent catcher Andrew Knizner on a deal, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. If they reach agreement on a big league contract, he’d be in line to back up Cal Raleigh.
Knizner spent the second half of the 2025 season with the Giants. He’d begun the season in Triple-A with the Nationals but was released in the middle of May. He signed a minor league deal with San Francisco and jumped onto the MLB roster a few weeks later. Knizner spent the rest of the season working behind Patrick Bailey. The presence of a two-time Gold Glove winner blocked him from getting much playing time, though he had a brief run as the starting catcher when Bailey missed a week and a half with a neck strain.
The 30-year-old Knizner (31 in February) started 28 of his 32 appearances behind the dish. He stepped to the plate 88 times and hit .221/.299/.299 with one home run. Knizner has played parts of seven MLB seasons between the Cardinals, Rangers and Giants. He owns a .211/.281/.316 batting line in a little under 1000 career plate appearances. The former seventh-round pick has a much better .292/.387/.443 mark across 583 trips to the plate at the Triple-A level.
Knizner has caught more than 2200 major league innings. His early-career defensive grades weren’t great, as public metrics weren’t favorable on his pitch framing. He has rated closer to average in that regard over the past two seasons, though his blocking hasn’t been as strong. His arm strength is middling, and he has thrown out a below-average 16.4% of baserunners in the last four years.
San Francisco opted not to tender Knizner a contract for his final year of arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected him for a modest $1.3MM salary, but the Giants want to leave the door open for rookie Jesus Rodriguez to win the backup job in camp. Seattle doesn’t have a second catcher on their 40-man roster. Mitch Garver hit free agency and they traded rookie Harry Ford for lefty reliever Jose A. Ferrer last week.
Knizner has five-plus years of MLB service and cannot be sent to the minors without his consent. If he signed a big league deal, he’d enter camp as the presumed #2 catcher. The Mariners will probably continue looking for depth options via waivers or minor league free agency to push him for that spot, but it’s not a position to which they need to devote many resources. Raleigh will be in the lineup almost every day at either catcher or designated hitter. He started 119 games and logged 1072 innings behind the plate this past season. Only J.T. Realmuto and William Contreras took a heavier workload.
Blue Jays Acquire Chase Lee
The Tigers have traded right-hander Chase Lee to the Blue Jays in exchange for minor league lefty Johan Simon, according to announcements from both clubs. This move is likely to open a 40-man spot for the Tigers to make their signing of Kyle Finnegan official. The Jays had a 40-man vacancy but Lee takes up the final spot. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic first reported that Lee was headed to the Jays while Mitch Bannon of The Athletic first mentioned Simon as the return.
Lee, 27, doesn’t throw especially hard but is able to deceive batters with his sidearm delivery. Originally a draft pick of the Rangers, he was traded to the Tigers as part of the 2024 deadline deal which sent Andrew Chafin the other way.
In 204 2/3 minor league innings, Lee has allowed 4.13 earned runs pere nine, with a fairly average 8% walk rate but a strong 30.9% strikeout rate. The Tigers called him up to make his major league debut in 2025. He gave them 37 1/3 innings with a 4.10 ERA. His four-seam fastball only averaged 89.2 miles per hour while he also threw a sinker, slider and changeup. He struck out 24.3% of opponents while limiting walks to a 6.1% clip.
For the Jays, Lee adds some extra bullpen depth. He still has options and can therefore be sent to Triple-A Buffalo and back throughout the year. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet recently wrote a piece about how the Jays appear to be prioritizing different arm angles, so it’s possible they are particularly attracted to Lee’s sidearming abilities. He has less than a year of service time and is therefore years away from qualifying for arbitration and even further from free agency. If he’s able to carve out a meaningful role in the big leagues, he could be a long-term piece for the Jays.
To get Lee, the Jays are giving up Simon, an international signing out of the Dominican Republic. In 2025, he began at Single-A and then climbed to High-A and Double-A. Across those three levels, he tossed 71 relief innings with a 3.42 ERA, 25.1% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and a massive 64% ground ball rate.
For the Tigers, they had a 40-man roster crunch and needed to lose someone. With this deal, they’ve lost a bit of immediate depth but replaced Lee with a non-roster arm who is only slightly farther away from the majors.
Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images
Poll: Would You Rather Have Kyle Schwarber Or Pete Alonso?
This year’s Winter Meetings were highlighted by two of the game’s premier sluggers signing two of the offseason’s biggest contracts so far: Kyle Schwarber re-upped with the Phillies for five years and $150MM, while Pete Alonso signed on with the Orioles for five years and $155MM. With such remarkably similar contracts and roles to play in the lineup, it’s fair to wonder which player would be better to roster in a vacuum.
Schwarber’s case is obvious, given that he’s coming off a career year where he bashed 56 home runs and finished second in NL MVP voting. Schwarber turned in a brilliant .240/.365/.563 (152 wRC+) slash line for the Phillies this year while playing in all 162 games. In addition to his massive home run total, the slugger added 23 doubles, 2 triples, and even managed to chip in ten stolen bases. That was good enough for 4.9 fWAR and 4.7 bWAR, an incredibly impressive total for a DH who fielded just 66 innings this year.
Alonso’s offensive numbers, while certainly strong, weren’t quite as impressive. The slugger hit .272/.347/.524 with a wRC+ of 141 while also playing 162 games for the Mets. While he hit “just” 38 home runs to Schwarber’s 56, he did manage to swat 41 doubles as well. His contributions on the bases were minimal, but he did play the field in 160 of his 162 games as the Mets’ everyday first baseman. Alonso’s 3.6 fWAR and 3.4 bWAR don’t quite measure up to Schwarber’s gaudy total, but his ability to play a defensive position on a regular basis did free up the DH slot in the lineup to allow the Mets the opportunity to rest their regulars and roster valuable pieces with defensive limitations like Starling Marte.
Digging in a little deeper, the comparison gets even more interesting. Advanced metrics indicate an even smaller gap between Schwarber and Alonso in terms of offense than the raw production does, as Schwarber’s .402 xwOBA eclipses Alonso’s .385 by just 17 points. On the other hand, Alonso benefited from a career-high .305 BABIP in 2025, while Schwarber’s own .253 figure was actually below his career norms. Schwarber’s time in Philadelphia has seen him produce a 133 wRC+ that’s almost a perfect match for Alonso’s own 131 wRC+ over the past four years, and while Alonso is two years younger than Schwarber, he also lacks some of the elite power projection that Schwarber offers. Schwarber’s incredible 54.2% hard-hit rate over the past five years trails only Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, while Alonso’s 46.7% figure falls more in line with players a cut below that tier like Ryan McMahon and Max Muncy.
A look at how both players performed in the market would suggest that teams certainly value them similarly. The pair got the same number of years. Alonso signed for an additional $5MM in terms of total guarantee but Schwarber appeared to have a more robust market in terms of total suitors. The Pirates, Reds, and Orioles themselves were all known to have made offers of $120MM or more to Schwarber, with plenty of other teams such as the Mets, Giants and Red Sox rumored to be interested as well. Alonso, by contrast, saw his known suitors mostly limited to the Mets, Red Sox, and perhaps the Cubs in addition to the Orioles. Perhaps more teams simply had an opening at DH than at first base, but it’s also fair to wonder if more teams simply saw Schwarber as a game-changing talent.
Even if that’s true, however, Alonso’s ability to field a position at a competent (if below average) level on a regular basis and his relative youth would certainly be strong arguments in his favor. Schwarber will play the final year of his contract at the age of 37 and few players project well that late into their careers. Perhaps Schwarber’s elite and unique power capacity could make him an exception in the same vein as other great slugging DH-only bats like David Ortiz and Nelson Cruz, but that’s a much bolder gamble to make than expecting Alonso to remain productive through his 35th birthday.
How do MLBTR readers value the two sluggers? If your team had openings at both first base and DH, which one would you rather have installed in your lineup for the next five seasons? Have your say in the poll below:
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Hey everyone, hope you've all enjoyed your week!
- Looking forward to another of these, let's get it going
Reds
- Four guys under contract (Hayes, Greene, Trevino, Pagan) and less than $80 million in payroll per BR. They can't be serious about not signing anyone, right?
Anthony Franco
- Not sure where you've got the sub-$80M mark but I think they're more like 105 once you factor in arb projections and minimum salary players to build out the roster
- They should've non-tendered Lux and should still shop him and Steer, kick around ideas about swapping Singer for a bat. I don't expect them to do much in free agency, though
- They've never gone beyond $64M on a free agent and Schwarber was a special case from ownership's perspective
Breslow
- There's been rumors that the Dodgers may be looking to unload Teoscar to open up their OF a bit - do you think a swap of Teo for someone like Jordan Hicks would make some sense? Teo could become the RH DH bat the Sox are looking for while dumping Hicks $$ - relatively small net payroll add for Boston and LAD saves some money and gets back a live arm....
Anthony Franco
- Don't think it does a lot for the Dodgers. Teoscar's rough out there but so much of the deal was in a signing bonus so the remaining salary commitments (plus option buyout) is 2/33, a lot of it deferred. Hicks is due a straight 2/24 and isn't good. Teoscar should be a DH but he's still at least an offensive contributor
Robert from SC
- How much did the Braves improve with the Suarez and Yaz signings?
Anthony Franco
- Didn't love either move. Would've stopped at two years on Suarez and one on Yaz. The latter's a weird roster fit anyway unless they're trading Profar or more concerned about Murphy's health than they've really let on
- Suarez is a good, not great reliever who's entering his age-35 season. Obviously the bullpen's better with him than without, but if the velocity drops from 98-99 to like 96-97, eh
- Already doesn't have huge swing-and-miss rates because he doesn't throw a breaking ball
Willson Contreras
- Is there a taker for me if I waive the no trade? Mets? Someone else?
Anthony Franco
- Mets make the most sense, Boston could work there. Arizona, San Diego, Texas all fit positionally but probably require the Cards to eat more than half the money
Hmm
- If a team loves the Rule 5 player they chose, but don't really want to keep him on the MLB roster all season per the MLB rules, can they work out a deal with his previous team to keep him or must they pass him through waivers first, and then if he passed through waivers, must offer him back to his previous team?
Anthony Franco
- Needs to go through waivers and get offered back to the original team first. They can then try to trade for him back, which does happen sometimes -- usually for cash
Who signs first?
- Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, or Bo Bichette - who do you think signs first of this trio?
Anthony Franco
- I'll take Bo, largely on the assumption that he goes back to Toronto
Pete Alonso
- Do you think I crack 183 home runs with the Orioles, which would put 10th on the all-time home run franchise leaderboard?
Anthony Franco
- That's an average of 37 per season unless they extend or re-sign him down the line. I'll take the under, think I'd set it more at like 160
Coldstove season
- Has this been one of the slower starts to an offseason in recent memory or am I falling for some recency bias? The Winter Meetings in particular felt much less active than usual.
Anthony Franco
- Agree that the Meetings were quieter than usual. Offseason as a whole maybe a little slower than normal but not dramatically so. I get some version of this question every year
- I think there's been a decent amount of movement overall but it's not all that exciting because so much of it has been the bullpen market
Curious A's Fan
- Your call: Do you overpay for a FA pitcher like Bassitt or M. Kelly (2+ year contract) OR trade Colby Thomas for a rental SP like Singer or Bubic?
Anthony Franco
- I'd trade Thomas for Bubic (assuming the medical review checks out) but not for Singer. I don't think a two-year deal at $16-18M per for Merrill or Bassitt is much of an overpay, so I'm fine with that direction if they want to give Thomas a chance to play his way into the outfield mix again
- I would be out on either of those guys if it got to three years though
Joe from Milwaukee
- The Brewers have made giant trades before when they had other young, controllable pieces in place (Yelich). Do you think they pull off a Ketel Marte/Corey Seager sized trade since almost all of their position players are controllable for at least a few more seasons? Or maybe James Wood if they prefer to get more out of their CF?
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Nationals, Josiah Gray Avoid Arbitration
The Nationals announced that they have signed a one-year deal with right-hander Josiah Gray to avoid arbitration. Gray will make $1.35MM in 2026, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. That’s the same salary Gray made in 2025 while recovering from elbow surgery.
Gray will celebrate his 28th birthday in a little over a week. Once a notable prospect with the Dodgers, he came over to the Nationals in the 2021 deadline deal which sent Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to Los Angeles. That deal hasn’t worked out especially well for the Nats so far. Gray and catcher Keibert Ruiz were hoped to be major building blocks in Washington but Ruiz has struggled to cement himself as a viable big league catcher. Gerardo Carrillo and Donovan Casey, the other two guys acquired in that deal, are no longer with the Nats.
As for Gray, he has had some decent but not overwhelming results for Washington. He made 28 starts for the Nats in 2022 but with an unimpressive 5.02 earned run average. He dropped his ERA to 3.91 in 2023 but with less impressive numbers under the hood. His 20.5% strikeout rate and 11.5% walk rate were both subpar. It seems a fairly high 80.4% strand rate helped him keep runs off the board. His 4.93 FIP and 5.08 SIERA were less bullish than his ERA.
He has mostly been on the shelf since then. He made just two starts in 2024 before landing on the injured list due to a flexor strain in his throwing elbow. He began a rehab assignment in June but then was shut down with renewed discomfort. He required Tommy John surgery in July. He finished that year on the IL and eclipsed three years of service time in the process. That qualified him for arbitration for the first time going into 2025. He and the Nats agreed to a $1.35MM salary to avoid arbitration.
Gray spent the year rehabbing. He made three brief rehab starts in September, getting stretched out enough to throw 2 2/3 innings in the final outing, but he didn’t get back to the big league club. The way the arb system works, player salaries almost never go down. For guys who miss an entire season, they usually see their salaries hold steady. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected that would happen with Gray and it has.
Much has changed since Gray has been out. The rebuild effort stalled out to the point that president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez were both fired in July. They have since been replaced by Paul Toboni and Blake Butera respectively.
It’s unclear when the front office plans to return to contention but Gray is now down to two years of club control. His teammate MacKenzie Gore is also two years from free agency and has been in plenty of trade rumors. Infielder CJ Abrams has also been in trade rumors despite being controlled for three more seasons. If Gray has a strong first half in 2026, it’s possible he will also be in a lot of trade talk this summer as well.
Photo courtesy of Reggie Hildred, Imagn Images
Dodgers Sign Edwin Diaz
December 12th: The Dodgers officially announced the signing today.
December 9th: For the second straight offseason, the Dodgers are signing the top relief arm on the market. They’ve reportedly agreed to a three-year, $69MM contract with now-former Mets closer Edwin Diaz. It’s a record-setting annual value for a reliever, breaking the $20.4MM record that Diaz himself already held. Diaz’s contract with the Dodgers contains $4.5MM in deferred salary annually. The net-present value, for luxury tax purposes, is roughly $21.1MM.
Diaz, a Wasserman client, returned to the open market this winter when he opted out of the final two seasons of the precedent-setting five-year, $102MM contract he signed with the Mets the last time he was a free agent. The right-hander had been guaranteed $38MM over the final two seasons of that contract, so by opting out and testing the market, he secured himself an additional one year and $31MM in guarantees. The Mets, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, offered Diaz a three-year, $66MM deal with “slight” deferrals.
The 31-year-old Diaz (32 in March) has spent the past seven years in Queens and, after a rocky first campaign, has turned in a collective 2.36 ERA (2.12 SIERA, 2.15 FIP) with a mammoth 40.8% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. He’s piled up 144 saves in 332 appearances as a Met.
For the Dodgers, Diaz represents the most on-the-nose means of addressing a problem that nearly doomed them in the postseason: a lack of reliable bullpen help. Injuries to Evan Phillips, Tanner Scott, Brusdar Graterol and others left the Dodgers with a thin enough stock of trustworthy relievers that L.A. turned to Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (one day after he threw nearly 100 pitches) in pivotal high-leverage settings during their World Series run. That they even progressed to the World Series was largely attributable to historic performances from starters Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani in the postseason’s earlier rounds.
The Dodgers have now signed the top reliever on the market in consecutive offseasons. They inked Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72MM pact last winter, though that deal contained $21MM worth of deferred money, thus knocking down the present value. Scott’s first year in L.A. didn’t go at all as hoped; he limped to a 4.74 ERA with improved command but lesser velocity and strikeout rates. After yielding 11 home runs in the 2022-24 seasons combined, Scott served up 11 round-trippers in his first season as a Dodger.
Certainly, they’ll hope for better results with Diaz, whose track record is lengthier and steadier than that of Scott. While he’s naturally had some year-to-year variance in his earned run averages — as is the case for any reliever — Diaz has been at 3.52 or better in each of the past five seasons, including three sub-2.00 campaigns. He’s punched out at least 34.6% of his opponents each season along the way, and since a shaky walk rate in 2021, he’s sat between 7.7% and 9.3% in that regard for four straight seasons.
That’s not to say there aren’t any red flags at all with regard to Diaz. His average fastball velocity has dipped in two consecutive seasons. While this past season’s average of 97.2 mph was still well above average, it’s also two miles per hour shy of Diaz’s 2022 peak. He also gave up considerably more hard contact. Diaz’s 88.5 mph average exit velocity and 39.7% hard-hit rate were both the second-highest marks of his career, trailing only his disastrous 2019 season (his first as a Met). Neither is a glaring issue, particularly considering Diaz maintained elite strikeout and swinging-strike rates (38% and 18%, respectively), but he’ll want to avoid allowing those negative trends to continue, however slight they may currently be.
Diaz will slot into the ninth inning, pushing Scott to a setup role alongside Alex Vesia, Blake Treinen, Anthony Banda, Brock Stewart and Graterol. Will Klein, Ben Casparius and Jack Dreyer all had solid or better seasons in 2025, but if everyone is healthy — far from a given — there’s only room for one of that trio in the final bullpen spot. Of course, injuries will inevitably create opportunities for many of the Dodgers’ overqualified depth arms, and each of Klein, Casparius, Dreyer and Edgardo Henriquez have minor league options remaining.
The Dodgers have paid the luxury tax in (more than) three consecutive seasons and are more than $60MM over the $244MM first-tier luxury threshold, meaning they’ll pay a 110% tax on the AAV on Diaz’s contract. However the annual salaries break down, he’ll cost them an additional $25.3MM in taxes alone. Assuming an evenly distributed $23MM per season, RosterResource, now projects next year’s Dodgers payroll at just over $359MM (although that does not account for substantial deferrals to Ohtani, Scott, Freddie Freeman, etc.).
The Mets would have been subject to those same penalties had they matched or topped this offer. Diaz reportedly entered the market seeking a five-year contract. When that didn’t materialize, he clearly pivoted to a record-setting, shorter-term arrangement. The extent of the deferrals in New York’s offer aren’t yet clear, but there’s no indication (yet, anyway) that the Dodgers’ offer includes any deferred money.
While New York couldn’t have known when signing Devin Williams to a three-year, $51MM pact that Diaz would also sign for three years and a total of $18MM more, the results from those two high-end relievers will now be carefully watched by Mets fans for the next three seasons. If Williams returns to form, it’ll look like a savvy pivot to get a comparable reliever at a lesser rate. If not, there will be plenty of second-guessing and criticism from the fan base.
Of course, owner Steve Cohen also clearly has the resources to have simply won the bidding on both relievers, but that’s ultimately not the route the front office chose. They’ll now look to other avenues as they seek to continue adding to the bullpen. The Mets were open to re-signing Diaz even after adding Williams, and while this deal clearly went past their comfort zone, there are other high-end arms still available — Robert Suarez, most notably. Choosing to let Diaz walk also frees up further resources for a potential re-signing of Pete Alonso or perhaps a run at another target of note.
The Mets bid farewell to Diaz, who rejected a $22.025MM qualifying offer, with only minimal compensation for his departure. Due to their status as luxury tax payors, they’ll receive a compensatory draft pick after the fourth round of next summer’s draft. The Dodgers, meanwhile, will surrender their second- and fifth-highest selections in next year’s draft. The league-allotted cap on their personal spending pool for international amateur free agents will also be reduced by $1MM.
Such considerations tend to be ancillary for the market’s top-spending clubs. Perennial luxury payors consider them the cost of doing business in the deepest waters of the free agent pool. The Dodgers have punted draft picks to sign Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman (among others) in recent seasons. For them, the allure of adding a closer with nearly unrivaled dominance takes precedence as they try to assemble a roster capable of winning three consecutive World Series for the first time since the 1998-2000 Yankees.
The Athletic’s Will Sammon first reported the agreement. Sammon and colleague Ken Rosenthal were also the first to report the three-year term. ESPN’s Jeff Passan broke the total guarantee. Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the Dodgers’ emerging interest in Diaz shortly before the agreement became public. Sherman reported on the deferrals.
Sean Reynolds To Sign With NPB’s Yokohama DeNA BayStars
Former Padres right-hander Sean Reynolds is signing with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. It’ll be the first overseas stint for the Ballengee Group client.
Reynolds, 27, was non-tendered by the Padres last month. He pitched parts of two seasons with the Friars after coming over alongside first baseman/outfielder Garrett Cooper in the trade that sent lefty Ryan Weathers back to the Marlins. Reynolds was outstanding in a small sample with the ’24 Padres, yielding only one run while piling up 21 punchouts in 11 innings (42.9% strikeout rate). He was hit hard in 2025, however, surrendering 16 runs on 20 hits and 17 walks in 27 frames. The resulting 5.33 ERA was an eyesore, and Reynolds saw his massive 2024 strikeout rate quite literally halved (21.4%).
Health may have played some role in Reynolds’ 2025 struggles. He opened the year on the shelf due to a stress reaction in his right foot and was promptly tagged for five runs in only 1 2/3 innings upon returning from the injured list. Reynolds then settled in with a tidy 2.14 earned run average over his next 21 frames before being optioned to Triple-A El Paso. He pitched well for the Chihuahuas for the next couple months and was recalled in September — only to be tagged for six runs (with nine walks) in his final 4 1/3 big league innings.
Reynolds has been a pure reliever throughout his professional career and will presumably be used in that same role over in Japan. The righty sat 96 mph with his four-seamer this past season and coupled the pitch with a slider clocking in at an average of 86.1 mph. He won’t turn 28 until April, so with a strong year or two pitching in Asia, there’s potential for him to eventual return to North American ball.
