What Should The Cardinals Do With Riley O’Brien?
It’s been a weird year for closers. Edwin Díaz, Josh Hader, Ryan Helsley, Emilio Pagán, Carlos Estévez and others are on the injured list. Jeff Hoffman lost his job with the Blue Jays. Pete Fairbanks, just reinstated from the IL, has an earned run average of 10.00. Devin Williams and Andrés Muñoz have ERAs over 5.00. Bryan Abreu, filling in for Hader, has an ERA over 8.00. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are getting great results from a guy who hardly pitched in the majors before his 30th birthday.
St. Louis acquired Riley O’Brien in a very small trade in November of 2023. At the time, O’Brien didn’t even have a 40-man roster spot with the Mariners. All 29 other clubs had passed on claiming him when Seattle placed him on outright waivers in the summer of 2022. He was about to become a minor league free agent, but the Cards saw enough in O’Brien to send cash to Seattle to acquire him and place him on their 40-man roster so he couldn’t hit the open market.
The track record at that time wasn’t much to go on. An eighth-round pick of the Rays in 2017, O’Brien began his career as a starting pitcher. He was flipped to the Reds in August of 2020 for left-hander Cody Reed. Cincinnati added O’Brien to the 40-man roster that November to keep him out of the Rule 5 draft. Things didn’t work out with the Reds. O’Brien made a brief major league debut in 2021 but posted a 4.55 ERA in Triple-A. He was designated for assignment early in 2022 and shipped to the Mariners for cash or a player to be named later.
O’Brien was moved to a relief role in 2022, a switch that didn’t immediately bear fruit. He finished the year with a 7.03 ERA in 39 2/3 Triple-A innings. He seemed to turn a corner in 2023 when he threw 55 Triple-A innings with a 2.29 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. O’Brien struck out 37.7% of batters faced and induced grounders on 57.1% of balls in play. His 13.6% walk rate showed that he was still working on his control, but the Cards were intrigued enough to make that small trade and dedicate a 40-man spot to him.
That didn’t pay off right away. O’Brien suffered a flexor strain early in 2024 and missed most of the season. He was only able to make eight big league appearances and 14 more in Triple-A. He went into 2025 with only 10 1/3 major league innings under his belt. He turned 30 in February of that year, just before the season started.
O’Brien was finally able to break out in the big leagues last year, as he gave the Cards 48 innings with a 2.06 ERA. He wasn’t really as good as that ERA would suggest, however. His 11.1% walk rate was quite high and his 22.6% strikeout rate only average. His 54.1% ground ball rate was good but he got a lot of help from a .252 batting average on balls in play and 82.8% strand rate. His 3.61 FIP and 3.82 SIERA suggested he was good but not quite as dominant as the ERA made it seem.
The Cardinals sent him to the minors a few times last year and burned his final option year. That situation could push a pitcher off the roster, but that’s not going to happen anytime soon with O’Brien. He has taken over the closer’s role in St. Louis, with a 2.70 ERA and 12 saves in 20 innings so far this year. Though that ERA is higher than last year’s, the numbers under the hood look far better. His 29.5% strikeout rate, 2.6% walk rate and 62% ground ball rate are all huge improvements. His .320 BABIP this year actually skews a bit to the unlucky side. His 2.06 FIP and 1.67 SIERA think he actually deserves far better than his ERA.
The results are backed by a strong arsenal. O’Brien is averaging 98.4 miles per hour with his sinker, a pitch he is throwing 59.2% of the time. This year’s most-used secondary pitch is a sweeper that comes in around 83.8 mph, though he’s also using a 91.5 mph slider, giving hitters two different breaking pitches to watch out for. There’s also a changeup nominally in the mix, though that has made up less than 1% of his offerings this year.
O’Brien’s success is a big reason why the Cardinals are playing a bit above their heads right now. They have a 24-18 record despite an essentially even run differential. They have scored 194 runs and allowed 193. The +1 run differential gives them an expected win-loss of 21-21, but they have gone 8-3 in one-run games and 5-1 in extra innings. In short, they’ve played like a .500 team on the whole but have eked out three extra wins in close contests. O’Brien locking down 12 saves and earning three wins has surely played a role in tipping those scales.
It puts the Cards in an interesting spot this summer. They had planned for this season to be an evaluation year. They traded away Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan in rebuilding moves. The plan was to spend 2026 letting less-established guys accumulate lots of playing time, so the club could figure out who is a building block and who has trade value.
Perhaps the Cardinals will fall back in the standings and make things easier for the team brass. If not, it could lead to some tough decisions. The front office probably doesn’t want to buy at the deadline since that would require subtracting from the farm system, at a time when they are trying to build it. In fact, they probably want to do more selling, with guys like Lars Nootbaar, JoJo Romero, Dustin May, Nolan Gorman and Alec Burleson being some logical trade candidates.
O’Brien will be a very interesting player to track as well. On the one hand, he is not close to free agency. He came into this year with one year and 129 days of service time. He’s under club control for four more seasons after this one. He could qualify for arbitration this offseason as a Super Two guy, but even he does, four arb years for what looks like a potential high-end reliever is a great thing to have. There’s a case for keeping him around.
On the other hand, reliever performance tends to be quite erratic. O’Brien is 31 years old and doesn’t have a long track record of big league success. He walked 11.6% of batters faced in his minor league career. He had a 13.1% walk rate in the majors coming into this season. He’s now walking just 2.6% of opponents this year. Did he suddenly go from poor control to elite, or is this going to regress?
There’s also the ever-present injury concerns with a pitcher, especially one who throws almost 100 mph. Most high-velocity pitchers deal with arm issues these days and O’Brien had that aforementioned flexor strain in 2024.
There are many moving pieces here, making O’Brien an interesting player to watch in the coming months. As mentioned up top, lots of clubs have gotten poor results from their closers. Relievers are always in demand at the deadline and that need will perhaps be even greater this year. There’s an argument for the Cards to cash in while O’Brien is putting up good numbers. When they plan to truly contend in a few years, he’ll be pushing into his mid-3os and who knows what his status will be at that point?
Between now and the August 3 deadline, there are many ways it could tip. O’Brien could keep locking down games but he could also see his control slip or he could perhaps get hurt. The team could keep winning games and hang in the race or they could slip back. Trade talks won’t earnestly ramp up for a while but the Cardinals will have some interesting phone calls this summer.
Photo courtesy of Dennis Lee, Imagn Images
A’s Acquire José Suarez, Designate Junior Perez For Assignment
The Athletics acquired left-hander José Suarez from the Mariners in exchange for cash, the teams announced Thursday. Seattle designated Suarez for assignment earlier in the week. In a corresponding move, the A’s designated outfielder Junior Perez for assignment. Since Suarez is out of minor league options, he’ll jump right onto the Athletics’ big league roster.
Suarez opened the season with Atlanta but was designated for assignment earlier in the month. The Mariners scooped him up but gave him only one appearance (two innings, one run allowed) before jettisoning him from their own 40-man roster. Overall, the 28-year-old has a grisly 6.38 ERA in 18 1/3 frames this season.
Suarez has missed bats at a far loftier level than usual but has also displayed the worst command of his career this season. His 26.7% strikeout rate and 13% swinging-strike rate are both well north of his respective career marks of 20.9% and 11.7%. However, Suarez has walked 15.6% of his opponents — six percentage points higher than his career 9.6% mark. He’s also hit a batter and tossed a pair of wild pitches.
Back in 2021-22, Suarez looked to be emerging as a quality fourth starter in Anaheim. He gave the Halos 207 1/3 innings with a 3.86 ERA with a slightly below-average strikeout rate but a walk rate that was a bit better than average. The wheels came off in 2023, due in no small part to a shoulder strain that sent him to the injured list for several months. He posted an 8.29 ERA in 33 2/3 innings that season and was only marginally better in 52 1/3 frames the following season (6.02 ERA). He had decent results in a small sample with the Braves last season but generally has not gotten back to that 2022-23 form — or come particularly close — over any meaningful period of time.
Suarez is making $900K this season. That’s only $120K north of league minimum, but the A’s are now on the hook for the remainder of that sum. He’s worked as both a starter and reliever in the past but seems ticketed for manager Mark Kotsay’s bullpen — at least for now. The A’s presently have Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, Aaron Civale, Jacob Lopez and J.T. Ginn in the rotation, although Lopez (today’s starter versus the Cardinals) has been hit extremely hard in 2026.
As for Perez, he was only selected to the 40-man roster back in November. A mid-May DFA would have seemed far-fetched at the time. The A’s were understandably unwilling to risk letting Perez go unprotected ahead of the Rule 5 Draft after he’d slashed .231/.348/.478 with 26 homers, 27 steals and a 14.8% walk rate between Double-A and Triple-A in 2025.
Impressive as that ’25 showing was, Perez’s age-24 season has gotten out to a miserable start. He’s tallied 154 plate appearances in Triple-A and turned in a gruesome .210/.273/.384 batting line with a diminished 8.4% walk rate against a concerning 33.1% strikeout rate. He’s made contact on only 68.9% of his swings against Triple-A pitching — nowhere close to the major league average of 76.8%. The gap between his 79% in-zone contact rate and the major league average 86.3% is about the same size.
Perez is a right-handed hitter with plus speed and above-average power. He’s capable of playing all three outfield spots and has spent the bulk of his minor league tenure in center field, where scouting reports peg him as serviceable. There are clear hit tool concerns with him — he also fanned at a 28% clip in 2025 — but the power/speed/defense combination and a full slate of minor league options feels like it should be enough to garner interest from another team. That, plus the fact that the A’s are extremely deep in outfielders, perhaps contributed to him being bumped from the 40-man roster. It’s feasible that another club with far less outfield depth could offer up a low-level prospect to take a chance on the toolsy Perez, this year’s struggles notwithstanding.
Mariners Place Cal Raleigh On Injured List
The Mariners have placed catcher Cal Raleigh on the 10-day injured list due to an oblique strain. Fellow catcher Jhonny Pereda has been recalled from Triple-A Tacoma to take his spot on the roster. It’s the first IL placement of Raleigh’s big league career. Seattle also reinstated Jose A. Ferrer from the paternity list and optioned fellow southpaw Josh Simpson to Tacoma.
There’s no immediate timetable for Raleigh’s return. Daniel Kramer of MLB.com notes that he’ll receive a more thorough evaluation tomorrow when the club returns to Seattle. Raleigh has been attempting to play through pain in his oblique for more than two weeks now. He has only two hits in his past 49 trips to the plate, which has tanked his season batting line to .161/.243/.317.
Raleigh’s recent nosedive, coupled with a slow start to the season as well, have contributed to a pedestrian 21-23 record for the Mariners. Seattle had a particularly tough stretch in early April, dropping seven of eight games. They’ve played better since, with a 17-13 record over the past month. They’re currently two games back of the A’s for the division lead (and a half-game behind the Rangers as well).
Raleigh, of course, was the American League MVP runner-up in 2025, when he became the first catcher to ever hit 60 homers in a season. Raleigh’s .247/.359/.589 slash was 61% better than league-average, by measure of wRC+. Last year was his third straight season with 30-plus homers and fourth straight with 27 or more. It’s not clear if he was dealing with any kind of physical issue early in the season, but he clearly hasn’t performed anywhere close to his typical standards.
In his place, the M’s will rely on a light-hitting tandem of Mitch Garver and Pereda. Garver was a potent offensive force from 2018-23, which helped him land a two-year, $24MM deal with thee Mariners ahead of the 2024 season. His bat went south immediately upon signing in Seattle, however. He slashed .187/.290/.341 in 720 plate appearances over the life of that deal. Garver returned on a minor league pact this past offseason, made the club despite a poor spring showing, and has now slashed .167/.344/.188 in 61 trips to the plate.
Pereda, 30, has played in parts of three major league seasons. He’s taken 123 plate appearances and delivered a middling .248/.303/.301 line in that time. Pereda has consistently hit Triple-A pitching, however — this season included. He’s opened the year with a hefty .321/.414/.417 slash in exactly 100 plate appearances with the Rainiers.
We’ll learn more about the severity of Raleigh’s strain in the days ahead, but even Grade 1 strains (the lowest on a scale of one to three) can sideline players for upwards of a month. It’s likely this will require a good bit more than a minimum stint for Raleigh.
Francisco Alvarez Undergoes Surgery For Meniscus Tear
May 14: Alvarez had his surgery this morning. The Mets expect his recovery to be on the longer end of the spectrum, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com — likely eight weeks.
May 13, 3:07pm: Alvarez will indeed undergo surgery, manager Carlos Mendoza announced to the Mets beat (link via ESPN’s Jorge Castillo). There won’t be a formal timetable until the procedure is performed. Mendoza is hopeful Alvarez will return in six to eight weeks, but they’ll have more info after his operation.
2:08pm: The Mets announced Wednesday that catcher Francisco Alvarez has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a torn meniscus in his right knee. Fellow catcher Hayden Senger has been recalled from Triple-A Syracuse in a corresponding move. He’ll split time behind the dish with Luis Torrens while Alvarez is out.
Alvarez exited yesterday’s game due to knee discomfort and underwent an MRI today, which revealed the tear. The Mets’ announcement indicated only that a “timeline for return to play will be provided when possible.” Given the nature of the injury, Alvarez will be sidelined a good bit longer than 10 days. Meniscus tears almost always require surgery, though the timetable for return depends on the extent of the tearing.
It’s yet another blow for the Mets in a season where virtually nothing has gone their way. New York’s 16-25 record is the fourth-worst mark in Major League Baseball. Alvarez joins Jorge Polanco, Francisco Lindor, Luis Robert Jr., Ronny Mauricio, Jared Young, Kodai Senga and A.J. Minter on the injured list. Lindor, Polanco, Alvarez and Robert were all expected to be key pieces in a reshaped Mets lineup that has looked downright anemic this season — in no small part due to that litany of injuries.
The 24-year-old Alvarez had gotten out to a nice start in what’s already his fifth season with some time logged at the MLB level. He’s hitting .241/.317/.393 — about 5% better than league average, by measure of wRC+ (and about 14% better than the average catcher). During a swing in the sixth inning of yesterday’s game, however, Alvarez grimaced and walked out of the batter’s box, repeatedly flexing his knee (video link). After meeting with a trainer, he departed in the middle of the at-bat.
Once one of the top prospects in baseball, Alvarez has shown flashes of potential to break out as one of the game’s top backstops. He belted 25 homers back in 2023 but did so with a sub-.300 OBP and only a .209 average. In 2025, he slashed .256/.339/.447 but was limited to just 277 plate appearances because of injury. Health has been a frequent issue for the talented young catcher. Beyond this new meniscus tear, he’s also suffered ligament tears in both thumbs and a broken hamate in his his left hand.
Losing Alvarez means turning catching duties over to a pair of light hitters who are better served as backups. The 30-year-old Torrens is a strong defender but just a .226/.287/.351 hitter in his career. He’s batting .208/.255/.292 this season. The Mets somewhat surprisingly inked him to a two-year, $11.5MM extension last month. Senger has only 78 big league plate appearances but has mustered just a .181/.221/.194 slash in that time. His minor league work doesn’t inspire much more confidence. In parts of four Triple-A seasons, he’s a .231/.289/.339 hitter with a 26.9% strikeout rate.
Twins Option Matt Wallner
The Twins on Thursday optioned outfielder Matt Wallner and righty Travis Adams to Triple-A St. Paul. Utilityman Ryan Kreidler and right-hander Zebby Matthews were recalled in their place.
It’s the first time in more than two years that Wallner has been optioned. He’s been Minnesota’s Opening Day right fielder in each of the past two seasons and has handled the lion’s share of the playing time at the position along the way (though he’s frequently been platooned). Wallner has 70-grade power from the left side of the plate but strikes out far too frequently to take full advantage of it.
That hasn’t stopped him from being productive in the past. From 2023-25, Wallner turned in a hearty .231/.345/.493 batting line with 49 homers in 907 plate appearances. He walked at a 10.8% clip but struck out in 31.9% of his plate appearances. The Minnesota native (Forest Lake) averaged just under 92 mph off the bat with a hard-hit rate just over 48%. He’s not a very good defender, but the slug-heavy approach was potent enough to make him worth about five wins above replacement in 255 games, per both FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.
The 2026 season has been a disaster, however. Wallner has appeared in 33 games and posted a .167/.259/.292 slash. His already-high strikeout rate has exploded to 39.3%. His walk rate has dropped to a career-low 7.4%.
Over the past month, Wallner has just seven hits in 67 trips to the plate (58 official at-bats), and he hasn’t impacted the ball when he does manage to make contact. He’s averaging just 88.4 mph off the bat this season, and over the past 30 days that number is all the way down to 85.4 mph. His 28.6% hard-hit rate in that span ranks 221st among the 250 players who’ve taken at least 60 plate appearances — not exactly what a team wants from a slugging, power-over-hit corner outfielder who needs plenty of extra-base hits to offset substandard glovework.
If Wallner spends at least 20 days in St. Paul, he’ll burn the final of his three minor league option years. That’s particularly notable with Wallner also set to reach arbitration for the first time this winter. If he continues at a rate this poor or has merely an average-ish finish to his season whenever he returns, the Twins will have a decision to make. Wallner won’t break the bank in his first trip through the arb process, but he’s hit for enough power in his pre-arb platform to make a couple million dollars or so. Given that he’d be out of minor league options in an organization with several high-end corner outfield prospects on the horizon, Wallner’s standing within his hometown organization appears to be very much on the line.
The Twins have 2023 No. 5 overall pick Walker Jenkins on the cusp of the majors. Jenkins currently ranks as the No. 4 prospect in the entire sport, per Baseball America. He’s not hitting for power in Triple-A this year but is slashing .256/.396/.389 with 19 walks to 18 strikeouts. There’s reason to think more power is on tap, too. Jenkins is averaging 91.5 mph off the bat and has maxed out at 112 mph. Many of his games have been played in frosty Midwest weather thus far, but temperatures are beginning to rise as summer approaches. Jenkins has been down since May 3 with a shoulder sprain suffered on a collision with the outfield wall, but there’s yet to be any indication he’ll be sidelined for a significant period.
Minnesota also has 23-year-old Emmanuel Rodríguez over in St. Paul. He’s not quite as touted as Wallner but sits 38th on BA’s latest top-100 refresh. Were Rodríguez healthy, he may have even gotten the call to replace Wallner. He’s currently out with a muscle strain in his left hand but was slashing .247/.417/.506 with a colossal 21.3% walk rate in 108 plate appearances. That’s not just some early, small-sample weirdness either. Rodríguez has walked in a staggering 21.6% of his professional appearances, including 21.4% of his 350 total plate appearances in Triple-A. He’s also incredibly strikeout-prone (career 30%) with plus raw power and speed as well as good outfield defense. He could be a three-true-outcomes poster boy while also providing value on the bases and with the glove.
Even beyond that pair of touted prospects, the Twins are flush in corner outfield options. Trevor Larnach is having a decent bounceback season, though he’s somewhat similar to Wallner in many ways. He’s a former top draft pick and well-regarded prospect with a power-over-hit track record who isn’t making hard contact at all in 2026. Austin Martin has stepped up as a regular in the outfield and is hitting .300/.405/.385 with a pair of homers, 17 steals and nearly as many walks as strikeouts in 306 plate appearances dating back to last season.
Minnesota also added now-26-year-old Alan Roden from the Jays in last year’s Louis Varland trade. He’s out with a shoulder injury in St. Paul but has consistently thrashed Triple-A pitching and could get a real look if he’s able to return this summer. Prospect Gabriel Gonzalez had a down year in 2024, bounced back with a huge 2025 and was added to the 40-man roster, and has now struggled again to begin the 2026 season. He just turned 22 in January, however, so some struggles in his first full season at Triple-A aren’t shocking. They just promoted Hendry Mendez (acquired in last year’s Harrison Bader trade) to Triple-A after a big start in Double-A. He’s hitting .306/.400/.486 overall.
Suffice it to say, the Twins are deep in candidate to flank Byron Buxton in the corners. That depth makes Wallner’s poor performance all the more problematic for the 28-year-old slugger. The Twins will try to get him back on track in St. Paul for now, but there are plenty of younger options breathing down his neck.
Matthews’ return is of some note here as well. He’s a former top-100 prospect who’s been hot in Triple-A of late (2.67 ERA, 28-to-7 K/BB ratio in his past five starts/27 innings) who’ll get another chance in the rotation due to injuries. Minnesota lost Pablo López (UCL surgery) and David Festa (shoulder impingement) before the season started. Mick Abel (elbow/triceps inflammation) and breakout righty Taj Bradley (pectoral inflammation) are currently on the 15-day IL. Matthews hasn’t found success in parts of two prior big league seasons, but he’s still 25 and now has another chance to show he can stick in the majors with a good impression. Simeon Woods Richardson has struggled badly, so even if Bradley and Abel get healthy, there could be a spot for Matthews moving forward.
The Opener: Walk-Offs, Soto, Garrett
Happy birthday, Mickey Moniak. The outfielder celebrated turning 28 by finishing a single short of the cycle. Per the Rockies, Moniak is the first player since at least 1898 to post a stat line that included nine total bases, three extra-base hits, a triple, a home run, and 5 RBI.
1. Walk-off Wednesday
Yesterday’s action featured several exciting finishes, including four walk-off wins. Mets rookie Carson Benge knocked in the winning run in the 10th inning against the Tigers. The Rangers gave up three runs in the top of the ninth, then scored three runs in the bottom of the frame to beat the Diamondbacks. The Astros also fumbled a ninth-inning lead, only to win it in extras on a Zach Cole single. The biggest clutch hit of the evening was Daulton Varsho‘s game-winning grand slam against the Rays. The Blue Jays gave up two runs in the top of the 10th, but loaded the bases against reliever Aaron Brooks. Varsho sent the fans home happy with a drive to left field that landed in Toronto’s bullpen.
2. Soto leaves with ankle injury
Mets megastar Juan Soto left midway through the game against Detroit with an ankle injury. The outfielder initially remained in the contest after fouling a ball off his foot, but was replaced by MJ Melendez in the seventh inning. Soto seems to have avoided serious injury. He’s currently day-to-day and could suit up for the series finale on Thursday. “I was concerned as soon as he got hit, because it got him pretty good there,” manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters, including Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. “We went out there, and you could tell that he was in pain. That second at-bat didn’t look right.” The Mets can ill-afford to lose another big-name player, with Francisco Lindor and Luis Robert Jr. already sidelined.
3. Garrett returning against Twins
Marlins left-hander Braxton Garrett is expected to start on Thursday against Minnesota. He’s been working his way back from UCL surgery. Garrett has a crisp 2.30 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning across six starts at Triple-A. He’ll be stepping in for lefty Robby Snelling, who hit the IL yesterday with a UCL sprain. It’s a disappointing outcome for the top prospect, who made just one big-league start before going down with the injury. Snelling was filling the rotation spot of Chris Paddack. Garrett will now have the opportunity to take over that role.
Photo courtesy of Kevin Sousa, Imagn Images
MLB Mailbag: Hader, Aroldis, Mariners, Rays
This week's mailbag looks at the trade value of Josh Hader and Aroldis Chapman plus other relief targets, Cal Raleigh's struggles and possible Mariners trade options, the Rays' shortstop situation, and much more.
Adam asks:
The Astros are really bad and their season was already in the trash can prior to Correa's injury. He's out for the year and they would be wise to sell everyone who isn't Alvarez. Josh Hader (who is also currently hurt) would have around $46 million and 2.5 years left on his deal if dealt around the deadline. He also has a no trade clause and again, is injured as of right now. Edwin Diaz is the same age as Hader and just signed for 3/67 this offseason and they are very comparable. In theory, if Hader was a free agent this past winter, he likely could have gotten more money than what he had signed for so he has positive value, in theory. If he is open to waving his NTC, what would he fetch at the deadline?
Jeff asks:
I know early season trades are rare, but do you think the Red Sox would be willing to trade Chapman sooner than later? He's having a great start to the season and not a whole lot of games to save in Boston. What do you think the Red Sox would want back?
Mike asks:
Who will be the best closers traded at the deadline?
I decided to lump all my reliever trade questions together.
Hader, 32, made the All-Star team last year but his season ended in mid-August due to a left shoulder capsule strain. As of late November he was expecting a normal spring training, but then biceps inflammation popped up in February. He's on the 60-day IL and is eligible to return to the Astros on May 24th. The lefty has made three scoreless relief appearances so far. We have Statcast data for two of them, and he threw his sinker in the 94-95 mile per hour range. That's not far below the 95.5 he averaged in his excellent '25 season.
At the deadline, Hader will be owed a bit less than $45MM through 2028. And yes, he has a full no-trade clause. So he'll have to be compensated to waive it unless he really just wants out of Houston. Hader is a Maryland native, so it's possible he'd enjoy an East Coast team.
Hader should have more than two months to prove his health pitching for the Astros prior to the August 3rd trade deadline. As a $19MM a year reliever coming off an injury, Hader's trade value may be limited. Throw in his full NTC, and his market will shrink further. He still has elite reliever potential and could be a huge asset in the postseason, but certain contenders may be unable to get involved due to his salary and veto power.
For example, Hader would be a great fit on the Royals or Reds, but those teams would likely balk at his contract even if he'd approve a trade. A big market team would be a cleaner fit. Which big market teams have at least a 40% shot at the playoffs right now? That list includes the Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers. The Yankees and Cubs stand out, with the former possibly holding the East Coast edge.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
MLBTR Podcast: Patrick Bailey To Cleveland, The Struggling Astros, And Arizona’s Outfield Changes
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Giants trading Patrick Bailey to the Guardians (1:25)
- The Astros losing Carlos Correa to season-ending ankle surgery (18:40)
- The Diamondbacks calling up Ryan Waldschmidt and trading Alek Thomas to the Dodgers (28:05)
- The Mets calling up A.J. Ewing (38:25)
- The Marlins calling up Robby Snelling (42:55)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Are the Tigers struggling due to injuries and will be fine as guys get healthy? Or should fans be more worried? (49:30)
- Which starting pitchers can the Cubs pursue? (53:25)
- When will the Yankees realize they need to upgrade on David Bednar as the closer? (58:20)
Check out our past episodes!
- Skubal’s Injury, The Marlins’ Catchers, Eldridge Called Up, And Volpe Sent Down – listen here
- The Alex Cora Situation, Lucas Giolito Signs, And The Phillies Fire Rob Thomson – listen here
- Kevin McGonigle, The Padres’ Franchise Valuation, And Edwin Díaz To Miss Time – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of David Dermer, Imagn Images
Can The Rays Keep This Up?
The regular season has crossed the 25% mark and there's an unexpected team at the top of the American League. The 28-13 Rays have the AL's best record and second-best mark in MLB behind the Braves. The Rays have a history of outperforming expectations, but some of the magic had seemed to wear off with sub-.500 finishes in each of the last two seasons.
Tampa Bay had a slightly busier free agent period than they typically do. They added Nick Martinez and Steven Matz, the latter on a two-year contract. They brought in Cedric Mullins on a reclamation deal. At the same time, they were closer to the "seller" end of their two biggest trades of the winter. They dealt Shane Baz to the Orioles for four prospects and a draft pick. They sent Brandon Lowe, Mason Montgomery and Jake Mangum to the Pirates for two more prospects. Gavin Lux was their most established trade pickup of the offseason, and he has been a complete non-factor due to various injures.
So how have the Rays gotten out to one of the best starts in franchise history? Are they resurrecting a small ball offensive approach in the modern game, and what should be the deadline focus for a team that'll enter the summer more clearly looking to add MLB talent than they have over the past couple seasons?
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Matt Mervis Signs In Mexican League
First baseman Matt Mervis has signed with the Algodoneros de Unión Laguna of the Mexican League. The club announced the deal on Monday. Mervis went 0-4 with three strikeouts in his team debut last night.
The 28-year-old appeared at the MLB level each season from 2023-25. A former undrafted free agent signee by the Cubs, Mervis put himself on the prospect radar by slugging 36 homers between three minor league levels in 2022. The Duke product made his big league debut one year later, striking out 32 times in his first 99 plate appearances.
Mervis hasn’t been able to get the elevated swing-and-miss numbers in check. He fanned at a 30% clip in Triple-A in 2024, only appearing in nine MLB contests. The Cubs traded him to Miami going into the ’25 season. Mervis was the Marlins Opening Day first baseman last year. He had a power barrage in the middle of April, slugging six homers through April 16. It remained an all-or-nothing approach, however, and Mervis slumped to a .175/.254/.383 batting line by the time the Marlins waived him at the end of May.
Subsequent minor league contracts with the Diamondbacks and Nationals haven’t gotten him back to the highest level. Mervis was in big league camp with Washington this year. He played one game for their Triple-A club in Rochester before being released. He’ll hope to put things together in a hitter-friendly league in Mexico and play his way back to affiliated ball on a minor league contract.