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Five Non-Tendered Pitchers To Keep An Eye On This Winter

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Every year, MLB’s non-tender deadline sees clubs allow some of their players who remain under team control to test the open market early, whether it be due to an increasing price tag in arbitration or a need for additional space on the club’s 40-man roster. Previous seasons have seen a number of high-profile players wind up non-tendered, with Kyle Schwarber, Cody Bellinger, and Brandon Woodruff all having been non-tendered at one point or another in their careers only to this year appear on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list.

While stars of that caliber who reach free agency by way of a non-tender are extremely rare, plenty of others find themselves cut loose early by their clubs only to make an impact elsewhere down the line. That could be as a regular in the lineup or rotation or simply as a solid contributor off the bench or out of the bullpen. Last weekend, we took a look at five hitters who hit free agency following the non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on throughout the coming offseason. Now let’s take a look at the pitching side of things, where a handful of intriguing names were recently made available.

Players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2026 season in parentheses:

Jason Foley (30)

Foley is the prototypical interesting non-tendered pitcher; a reliever with quite a lot of high-end, late-inning experience who was let go after an injury-marred season. Foley made his big league debut with the Tigers in 2021 and has been excellent when healthy. Across 199 2/3 innings of work, he’s posted a 3.16 ERA (122 ERA+) with a 3.22 FIP that more or less matches those results. He’s struck out just 18.1% of his opponents in that time against a 6.1% walk rate, but makes up for it with a 54.1% ground ball rate for his career.

That’s the 14th-highest grounder rate among pitchers with as many innings as him over the past five years, sandwiched between Camilo Doval and Andres Munoz. Foley also has ninth-inning experience, having served as the Tigers’ closer in 2024 and collected 28 saves in that role. The right-hander’s 2024 season saw him take steps back in most of his major peripherals, and a 2025 season lost to shoulder surgery makes him a question mark headed into 2026. He could be a steal on the relief market if healthy and could be controlled through the 2028 season via arbitration.

Mark Leiter Jr. (35)

A veteran relief arm who has rarely found high-end results at the big league level, on the surface Leiter looks like the sort of reliever who frequently finds himself non-tendered over the offseason. Even so, a closer look at Leiter’s profile reveals an interesting relief arm with plenty of upside. The right-hander settled into a full-time relief role in Chicago during the 2023 season, and over the past three years has pitched out of the bullpen for the Cubs and Yankees. In that time, his top line numbers are unimpressive: a 4.22 ERA (98 ERA+) in 170 2/3 innings of work looks like the average middle relief arm. A closer look reveals an impressive profile, however. Leiter has struck out 29.2% of his opponents over the last three years while walking 8.5% and maintaining a solid 45.5% ground ball rate.

Leiter’s 3.13 SIERA over the past three seasons is the 13th best figure in baseball among relievers with at least 150 innings of work, just ahead of high-end relievers like Emmanuel Clase, Tanner Scott, and Luke Weaver. The difference between those relief arms and Leiter comes down to batted ball outcomes; over the past two years, Leiter has posted an ugly .359 BABIP and a strand rate of just 66.5%. If those numbers can normalize in 2026, that positive regression could be enough to make Leiter a solid late-inning reliever. Even if not, however, it’s worth noting that Leiter’s splitter makes him very effective against opposite-handed pitchers: In 104 2/3 innings of work against lefties the last three years, Leiter has posted a 2.49 ERA and 2.57 FIP with a 32.1% strikeout rate. That gives him a higher floor than most non-tendered pitchers as a quality option against southpaws.

Evan Phillips (31)

The Dodgers opted to send Phillips into free agency rather than pay him a projected (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) $6.1MM via arbitration. That’s a decision they surely wouldn’t have made if not for the fact that Phillips underwent Tommy John surgery back in May and isn’t likely to pitch before the second half of the 2026 season. With 2026 being his final year under club control, the Dodgers evidently thought better of paying that price tag (and the 110% tax they’d owe based on their luxury bill) for, at best, half a season of a reliever.

It’s an understandable decision, but Phillips has been utterly dominant since joining Los Angeles. In 195 innings since being plucked off waivers from the Rays back in 2021, the right-hander has pitched to a 2.22 ERA with a 29.0% strikeout rate and a 2.77 FIP for the Dodgers. He served as the club’s closer much of the 2023 and ’24 seasons, collecting 45 saves in that time, and looked as good as ever this year before going under the knife with seven scoreless outings and a 27.3% strikeout rate. Given his combination of dominance and health questions, Phillips seems like a candidate for a two-year deal not unlike the one Liam Hendriks signed with the Red Sox two offseasons ago.

Gregory Santos (26)

The youngest player on this list, Santos has extremely enticing upside but lacks a track record at the big league level. The right-hander’s claim to fame is his 2023 season with the White Sox, where he emerged as a force in the club’s bullpen. He pitched to a 3.39 ERA in 60 appearances that year, combining a 22.8% strikeout rate with a 52.5% ground ball rate to boast a 2.65 FIP and 3.32 SIERA. Santos’ combination of youth and results convinced the Mariners to surrender Zach DeLoach, Prelander Berroa, and a Competitive Balance draft pick in a trade with the ChiSox.

Sensible as the move may have seemed at the time, it did not work out for Seattle. The righty made just 16 appearances for the Mariners over the past two years due to lat and knee injuries. His results in those outings left much to be desired as well. Santos posted a 5.02 ERA and 4.41 FIP. That’s a sample size of just 14 1/3 innings, however, and it’s easy to imagine a 26-year-old getting back on track in a new organization. A team that helps Santos return to the form he flashed with Chicago two years ago would be rewarded handsomely, as he can be controlled through the 2028 campaign via arbitration.

Jacob Webb (32)

Webb has been at least serviceable, if not better, for the past four seasons. He’s been non-tendered in consecutive seasons — first by the Orioles, then by the Rangers — despite logging respective ERAs of 3.02 and 3.00 while making at least 55 appearances for each of those two teams. Dating back to 2021, Webb touts a 3.38 earned run average in 210 1/3 innings. He was sensational down the stretch in 2025, too, tossing 13 2/3 shutout innings with a 16-to-3 K/BB ratio over the season’s final month.

Webb doesn’t throw particularly hard or miss that bats at a premium level. He averaged 93.4 mph on his four-seamer last year in Arlington, marking the second straight season his velo has trended downward. However, he was slightly better than average in terms of inducing chases off the plate (33.1%) and inducing swinging-strikes (12.5%). Neither is an elite rate, but coupled with a career-best 7.1% walk rate and plenty of weak contact (86.6 mph average exit velo, 34.6% hard-hit rate), it was enough to help Webb post a third straight sub-4.00 ERA.

Now up to five-plus years of MLB service, Webb can no longer be retained for additional seasons via arbitration. However, he’s been a solid middle reliever who’s picked up the occasional hold and a rogue save here and there. He was non-tendered despite just a $2MM projection in arbitration. Teams looking for affordable arms to fill out the middle innings on a budget should have interest.

Poll: Should The Giants Consider A Bryce Eldridge Trade?

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The Giants made one of the most surprising trades in recent memory when they landed Rafael Devers from the Red Sox this summer in exchange for a package of Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, James Tibbs, and Jose Bello. Devers took over the first base job in San Francisco and now figures to be locked into a first base or DH role for the next eight years. That leaves first base and DH prospect Bryce Eldridge facing some uncertainty that’s become unusual for a prospect of his caliber in the modern game.

Eldridge, 21, made his big league debut this past year to much fanfare but spent only ten games in the majors and didn’t hit much in that limited time. Eldridge tore up the Double-A level this year with a .280/.350/.512 slash line (147 wRC+) in 140 trips to the plate to start the season before being promoted to Triple-A, where he spent most of the year and posted a .249/.322/.514 slash line. That was good for a wRC+ of just 105 thanks to the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League, but Eldridge’s 18 homers in 66 games is hard to argue with. That elite power is what’s made him a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport, and any team with a hole at first base would find it easy to dream on the youngster anchoring the middle of their lineup for the next half decade or longer.

Of course, the Giants do not have a hole at first base. That’s not to say they couldn’t find a way to squeeze a player of Eldridge’s caliber into the lineup, but in order to do so, they’d severely limit their overall lineup’s flexibility by locking down both the first base and DH spots on an everyday basis. That can certainly be worth it, as the division rival Dodgers have shown with their wildly successful duo of Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani. But even in L.A. there have been some clear downsides. The team’s defense has suffered with players like Teoscar Hernandez and Max Muncy forced to play the field full time at positions where they’re only passable defenders.

Is that reason enough to consider a trade? Eldridge would certainly be a tantalizing trade target for a number of teams who could be looking to sell this winter. The Cardinals seem to be more focused on adding pitching in their trades to this point, but a team like the Twins or Marlins could surely benefit from having Eldridge as the centerpiece of their rebuild, and a player like Edward Cabrera or Joe Ryan would look good in the Giants’ rotation alongside Logan Webb and Robbie Ray. The Giants have made clear that they aren’t interested in spending at the top of the market for pitching this winter, but a trade of Eldridge could allow them to land a high-end starter without adding a hefty salary to the books.

Some of this, of course, comes down to how much the Giants believe in Eldridge. His 105 wRC+ and 30.8% strikeout rate at Triple-A this year likely created some mild concerns. If Eldridge were to struggle in 2026, his value would surely fall. That could make this offseason an appropriate time to move on, though it’s also worth remembering how devastating moving on from a top prospect too soon can be. The Cubs acquired Michael Busch just 27 games into his big league career and he turned in a 140 wRC+ this season in the middle of their lineup as an everyday first baseman. Of course, Chicago acquired Busch from the Dodgers not long after they brought Ohtani into the fold. Los Angeles surely aren’t too worried about Busch breaking out elsewhere. Perhaps the same could be true for San Francisco and Eldridge if the return is strong enough. That would be especially true if recent rumors connecting the Giants to Kyle Schwarber prove accurate.

How do MLBTR readers feel the Giants should proceed with Eldridge? Should they hold onto their top prospect and hope he and Devers can become an elite offensive duo in the middle of their lineup for the better part of the next decade? Or should they deal Eldridge to maximize positional flexibility and bring in a more impactful talent on the pitching side? Have your say in the poll below:

Rockies Name Josh Byrnes General Manager

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3:04pm: The Rockies have formally announced the hiring of Byrnes.

“I’m incredibly excited to be able to bring Josh into our group,” DePodesta said within today’s press release. “Few executives in baseball share his combination of intellectual curiosity, breadth of experience, and on-field successes. We are extremely fortunate to add him, as he immediately strengthens our entire baseball operation.”

9:43am: The Rockies are set to hire Dodgers senior vice president of baseball operations Josh Byrnes away as their new general manager, per Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic. Though he’ll have the GM title, Byrnes will be second in command in the new-look Rox front office that’s headed up by recently hired president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta.

Byrnes, 55, is a seasoned front office veteran who has previously run baseball operations for both the Padres and D-backs, holding the title of general manager with each club. Byrnes is also a former assistant GM within the Rockies organization itself, having held that role in Denver from 1999 through 2002, so he’s something of a known commodity for owner Dick Monfort.

Byrnes was one of Andrew Friedman’s first hires after being named president of baseball operations in Los Angeles. He’s spent 11 years as one of Friedman’s top lieutenants, supervising both the scouting and player development departments for the Dodgers. Byrnes’ résumé is an impressive one. He’s spent more than a decade as a key figure in the front office for a Dodgers club that has won three World Series titles in that span. Prior to that, he headed up a pair of other front offices in the NL West and also served as an assistant GM with the 2003-04 Red Sox during their curse-breaking World Series victory.

That’s 26 straight seasons as either an assistant GM, a general manager or a senior vice president of baseball operations. Prior to that run, Byrnes cut his teeth as an advance scout and scouting director in Cleveland under legendary general manager John Hart. Byrnes also overlapped with another advance scout and rising star in player development during that time … his new boss, DePodesta.

All of those prominent roles give Byrnes ample insight into how to best reshape and build out a Rockies infrastructure that has lagged far behind the times. Colorado has the smallest analytics department and smallest front office, in general, of any team in baseball. Under the Monfort family’s ownership, they’ve been either loyal to a fault or downright insular, depending on how one prefers to frame it. Byrnes and DePodesta figure to make numerous hires to beef up the Rockies’ data practice, player development department and broader baseball operations setup.

Guardians, Connor Brogdon Agree To Major League Deal

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The Guardians and right-hander Connor Brogdon have agreed to a major league deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Brogdon will make a salary of $900K next year, per Zack Meisel of The Athletic. The Guardians have 40-man vacancies and don’t need to make a corresponding move.

It’s a bit surprising to see Brogdon, 31 in January, secure himself a big league deal. He settled for a minor league deal with the Angels last winter. He was added to the roster a couple of times during the season, but was later passed through waivers in both instances. He tossed 47 innings for the Halos around those transactions, allowing 5.55 earned runs per nine.

Those were obviously not great results but the Guardians are presumably seeing something attractive under the hood. Brogdon’s 24.6% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate were both close to league average. His ERA was inflated because he allowed 11 home runs, almost doubling his previous career high of six. There are some ERA estimators which consider home run spikes to be fluky. Brogdon’s SIERA, for instance, was just 3.86 this year.

It’s also perhaps worth pointing out that Brogdon’s velocity came back. He averaged 95.5 miles per hour on his fastball in 2025. In 2024, he had battled plantar fasciitis and only tossed three big league innings. In that small sample of work, his fastball was down to 92.8 mph.

The Guardians presumably feel there’s a path to get Brogdon back to his previous results. From 2020 to 2022, then with the Phillies, Brogdon tossed 113 innings with a 3.42 ERA, 25.1% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. He earned three saves and 16 holds. He also tossed 8 2/3 postseason innings with a 2.08 ERA in 2022, as the Phils made it all the way to the World Series. His fastball velo was in the 95-96 mph range for those seasons.

In 2023, his results backed up. He posted a 4.03 ERA with a 20.5% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate. His average fastball velo fell to 94.7 mph. The following year, he bounced to the Dodgers and battled the aforementioned plantar fasciitis situation. With the Angels in 2025, his results weren’t fully back but the velo and strikeouts were close to his best years in Philadelphia.

The Guards generally have pretty good bullpens and that was the case in 2025. Even though they lost Emmanuel Clase to a gambling investigation in July, the club’s relief corps still finished the season with a collective 3.44 ERA, third in the majors behind the Padres and Red Sox. Brogdon will jump into that mix as the Guards try to coax better results out of him than the Angels did in 2025.

Brogdon is out of options, meaning he can’t be sent to the minors without being exposed to waivers. If the Guards pass him through waivers at some point, he would have the right to elect free agency as a player with at least three years of service time. However, since he has less than five years of service, he would have to forfeit his remaining salary commitments in order to exercise that right.

The $900K salary isn’t that high, considering the MLB minimum will be $780K next year. However, it is perhaps enough to dissuade other teams from claiming Brogdon. It’s also very unlikely Brogdon choose to leave that money on the table. Perhaps the Guardians are planning on having Brogdon in Triple-A as non-roster depth at some point in the future. If he is holding a roster spot at the end of the 2026 season, he can be retained via arbitration for 2027.

Photo courtesy of Ed Szczepanski, Imagn Images

Latest On Center Field Market

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The center field market appears to have lots of demand. The Phillies, Mets, Rays, Orioles, Diamondbacks and Royals are all looking for upgrades at the position, according to reporting from Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic.

Those teams all make logical sense. The Phillies acquired Harrison Bader at the deadline but lost him to free agency a few months later. The Mets did the same thing with Cedric Mullins, who was terrible for them. The Rays had a rotating cast of characters in the outfield in 2025 and are known to be looking for upgrades. The Orioles traded Mullins and then trotted out Colton Cowser, who struggled while playing through broken ribs. The Diamondbacks have been waiting for Alek Thomas to break out for a few years now. The Royals have been struggling to get good production from the grass for a few seasons and are looking for upgrades.

That demand might outpace the supply. The free agent market doesn’t have a standout option. Trent Grisham would have been the headliner but he accepted a qualifying offer to return to the Yankees. Cody Bellinger is out there but he’s more of a corner guy who can play some center, as opposed to an everyday solution. Bader is available and coming off a nice season at the plate but that was fuelled by a .359 batting average on balls in play. Mullins, as mentioned, is coming off a dreadful campaign.

On the trade market, Luis Robert Jr. is available but he’s coming off two straight poor seasons. The Astros are open to moving Jake Meyers for pitching help but Meyers has generally been a light-hitting, glove-first type in his career. Perhaps the Rockies would be open to moving Brenton Doyle but he’s still controlled for four more seasons and it would be a sell-low move for Colorado after his poor 2025 campaign.

The Red Sox might be willing to move Jarren Duran to clear their outfield logjam but Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan report that the Sox are looking for a return commensurate with his excellent 2024 season as opposed to his 2025 results. Duran’s combination of offense, defense and speed led to FanGraphs crediting him with 6.8 wins above replacement in 2024. Baseball Reference was even more bullish, giving him 8.7 WAR. He regressed a bit in 2025 and ended up at 3.9 fWAR and 4.7 bWAR. He’ll make $7.7MM in 2026 and can be controlled via arbitration for another two seasons after that.

If the Sox don’t want to sell low on Duran and no one is meeting their asking price, then perhaps he’ll stay in Boston. It does feel like they have to move someone, however. Their outfield mix currently projects to include Duran, Roman Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida and Jhostynxon Garcia. Anthony and Rafaela feel locked in because they have both signed extensions. Rafaela can also play second base but is the best defensive center fielder of the bunch.

Another theoretical trade option is Byron Buxton of the Twins. His contract gives him full no-trade protection through 2026, though it then drops to just a five-team no-trade list for the final two years of the deal. In the lead up to the 2025 deadline, as the Twins sold off a number of controllable relievers and sent infielder Carlos Correa back to Houston, Buxton repeatedly said he wasn’t interested in waiving that clause and wanted to remain a Twin for life.

That stance appears to have softened lately. Reporting last month from Dan Hayes of The Athletic suggested that Buxton would become more open to waiving his clause if the Twins continued tearing down the roster, perhaps by trading Joe Ryan or Pablo López. Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey pushed back on the notion that the Twins would be making more sell-side moves but they also haven’t done much this winter to tip the scales either way.

McDaniel and Passan, linked above, say that Buxton is willing to waive his no-trade clause. It’s unclear if they mean that in the same way as Hayes, where it’s conditional on the Twins going down the rebuild road. Presumably, if Buxton is asked to waive his clause at some point, that would be part of a rebuild regardless.

Buxton is an incredibly talented player who has dealt with a lot of injury issues. His career high in games played in 140, which was back in 2017. From 2018 to 2023, he never topped 92 contests in any one season. He got to 102 in 2024 and 126 this year. When on the field, the quality has been great. He just wrapped up a season in which he hit 35 home runs and stole 24 bases. He slashed .264/.327/.551 and was credited with 5.0 fWAR.

His unique contract reflects that uncertainty. He is being paid $15MM annually, a decent sum but about half of what most superstars get. However, he can make millions more based on plate appearances and MVP voting. For the Twins, or a theoretical team rostering him in the future, they’d be happy to pay him the extra since that means he’s on the field and producing. Buxton would surely garner lots of interest if the Twins made him available but it’s still not clear if the club will go down that road.

Photo courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images

Mariners Among Teams Interested In Brendan Donovan

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As the Cardinals navigate the early stages of a rebuild under new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, infielder/outfielder Brendan Donovan stands as perhaps the most appealing trade commodity on the St. Louis roster. The Mariners spent much of last offseason trying to pry Donovan loose from the Cardinals (under then-president of baseball ops John Mozeliak), and they’ve once again approached the Cards to express interest in coming together on a trade involving Donovan, per Adam Jude of the Seattle Times.

Donovan, 29 in January, turned in a sharp .287/.353/.422 batting line in 2025 — about 19% better than league-average performance, by measure of wRC+. He popped 10 homers in 515 plate appearances, piled up 32 doubles, walked at an 8.2% clip and struck out in only 13% of his plate appearances. It’s the fourth straight year of comparable hit-over-power and OBP-fueled offense for Donovan, who’s a lifetime .282/.361/.411 hitter in the majors. He’s walked at a 9.1% clip and fanned in just 13.5% of his 2006 MLB plate appearances dating back to 2022.

On top of Donovan’s generally strong output and impeccable bat-to-ball skills, he’s a gifted defender who can handle just about any position on the diamond. He’s played primarily second base and left field but has some decent experience at shortstop (106 innings), third base (270 innings), first base (151 innings) and in right field (205 innings).

For the Mariners, Donovan is an ideal fit. He can handle second base, third base or an outfield corner — all currently unsettled in Seattle at the moment. Prospects Cole Young and Colt Emerson are highly touted young players who could step up and solidify second base and/or third base, but Young struggled in his first 77 MLB games last year and Emerson is a 20-year-old who’s played all of six games at the Triple-A level thus far. Victor Robles is penciled into right field alongside Randy Arozarena and Julio Rodriguez, but Robles and Dominic Canzone could fill more part-time roles if Donovan is brought in and gets occasional work on the outfield grass.

Donovan also embodies the type of high-contact bat the Mariners have hoped to add in recent offseasons. The M’s had the second-highest strikeout rate of any MLB team in both 2023 and 2024. They dropped to seventh last year. Over the past five seasons, only the Angels (24.9%) have a higher team strikeout rate than the Mariners (24.7%). A full season of Josh Naylor helps to combat that, but 500-plus plate appearances from Donovan would give them a pair of premium contact bats at or near the top of the lineup.

Of course, Donovan’s versatility, production and affordability make him an ideal fit for the majority of contending teams seeking to upgrade their lineup this offseason. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $5.4MM salary for Donovan next year. He’ll be owed a raise on that heading into 2027 — his final season of club control (barring an extension between now and then). Any team acquiring Donovan would do so knowing that they can have him for something in the rough vicinity of $15MM total through 2027. It’s an unmitigated bargain, but that also means he’ll come with a lofty asking price. The Mariners, with one of MLB’s top farm systems, are well-equipped to make a compelling offer.

Katie Woo of The Athletic wrote this week that the Cardinals are only inclined to trade Donovan if they’re blown away by an offer they don’t think they can refuse. Interest in Donovan is so high, however, that Woo suggests such an offer is likely to materialize. Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN offered similar sentiments yesterday, writing that while the Cards “are not eager” to make the move, Donovan’s market is “percolating” and an eventual trade seems likelier than not.

In addition to the Mariners, Donovan is known to have drawn interest from the Pirates, Astros, Guardians and Royals. That’s surely just a fraction of the clubs to have reached out to the Cardinals regarding Donovan. The Dodgers, Yankees and Blue Jays were all tied to Donovan last offseason and/or at this past summer’s trade deadline.

Blue Jays Open To Trading Jose Berrios

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The Blue Jays’ early signings of Dylan Cease and KBO returnee Cody Ponce have deepened a rotation that already included Trey Yesavage, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber and Jose Berrios. Lefty Eric Lauer and righty Yariel Rodriguez give Toronto a pair of quality swing options, too, and the Jays still have Bowden Francis and former top prospect Ricky Tiedemann (who should be recovered from 2024 Tommy John surgery) in the upper minors as well.

The magnitude of Ponce’s three-year, $30MM contract presumably puts him squarely into the rotation. Barring a move to a six-man rotation or a spring injury, Toronto will have more starters than rotation places available. Injuries can turn a “surplus” into a deficiency pretty quickly, particularly when it comes to pitchers, but the Jays are willing to trade Berrios, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.

It’s easy to frame this as the Jays adding enough depth that they’re now willing to deal Berrios. That’d be the charitable (to Berrios) way of shaping things. The other and perhaps more likely angle is simply that Toronto wasn’t enamored with Berrios continuing as its fourth starter and has acted decisively with a pair of additions pushing the veteran righty down the depth chart.

Berrios, 32 next May, has been an iron man for the Jays and Twins throughout his big league tenure. He’s started at least 30 games every year since 2018, with the exception of the shortened 2020 season, when he started a full slate of 12 games. No pitcher has started more games (234) or totaled more innings (1367 1/3) than Berrios in that span of eight years.

Along the way, Berrios has generally been an above-average starter. He’s logged a 3.94 ERA, set down 22.6% of his opponents on strikes and only walked 6.8% of the batters he’s faced. Few starters have been this reliable for this long.

Be that as it may, Berrios’ more recent seasons have seen him trend in the wrong direction. After punching out 23.7% of his opponents from 2018-23, he’s dropped to 19.6% over the past two seasons. Add in a 19.8% strikeout rate in 2022, and Berrios has now been under 20% in that regard in three of the past four years. League average in that time has been about 22.5%. Berrios has spent much of his career working with plus command, but this past season’s 8% walk rate — while still slightly better than the 8.4% league average — was up considerably from the 6.3% mark he posted across four prior seasons.

The worrying trends don’t stop there. Berrios’ 93 mph average four-seamer in 2025 was the lowest of his career, while the 92.2 mph average on his sinker was his second-lowest (leading only the 92.1 mph he averaged back in 2019). He also surrendered the highest average exit velocity (90.3 mph) and barrel rate (11.3%) of his career. His opponents’ 42.5% hard-hit rate was the second-highest mark in his MLB run. Berrios has only yielded a hard-hit rate north of 40% in three of his 10 major league seasons. All three have come within the past four years. Unsurprisingly, given the dips in velocity, command and whiffs, Berrios has become more homer-prone; after surrendering an average of 1.17 homers per nine frames from 2017-23, he’s up to 1.43 since Opening Day 2024.

None of this necessarily makes Berrios a bad pitcher. He’s an ultra-durable source of reliable, if unspectacular innings. However, coming off a down season that ended with what was incredibly the first IL stint of his big league career (elbow inflammation), would Berrios match the remaining three years and $66MM on his contract? He’d be hard-pressed to do so — certainly once factoring in the opt-out provision he has following the 2026 campaign and the escalators that could push his remaining guarantee from $66MM to $70MM.

Currently, Berrios is guaranteed $24MM in both 2027 and 2028. Both figures would rise by $1MM if the right-hander pitches a combined 300 innings in 2025-26 and another $1MM if he gets to a combined 350 innings. With 166 frames under his belt in 2025, he’d only need 134 innings in 2026 to secure an additional $2MM and a tougher but plausible 184 innings to tack on yet another $1MM per season. Given his durability, it’s likely that Berrios will at least be promised at least $50MM over two seasons when weighing his opt-out opportunity next winter — and possibly two years and $52MM.

All of that coalesces to make Berrios a difficult player to trade. He’ll pitch next year at 32, so it’s hardly out of the question that he rediscovers some of his waning ability to miss bats and/or limit walks and boosts his profile a bit. In that instance, however, Berrios might very well opt out of the two years left on his contract beyond the 2026 season. On the other hand, if the veteran righty continues to see his strikeouts dip and/or see his walks creep further north, he could be more of an innings-eating fifth starter who’s trending down and owed $24-26MM in both his age-33 and age-34 campaigns.

Essentially, any team trading for Berrios would probably do so with the hope that he’d rebound closer to his 2021-23 form — at which point he’d likely opt out. But to acquire him, they’d also have to take on the downside of Berrios maintaining his recent status quo or even slipping further, thus making that $48-52MM owed to him in 2027-28 wholly unappealing.

It’d be a surprise if the Jays were to find an interested team that was willing to both take on the entirety of Berrios’ remaining contract (to say nothing of doing so and surrendering young talent). In all likelihood, the Jays would need to include at least some cash or take back another contract of some note at a different position. That said, starting pitching is always in demand, and there are always teams looking for creative ways to swap weighty contracts that might better fit their current roster or payroll objectives.

One other fascinating wrinkle to consider: Berrios ended the 2025 season with 9.044 years of major league service time. That places him 128 days shy of 10 years. With MLB Opening Day set for March 25 and the trade deadline set to fall on Friday, July 31, Berrios would reach 10 years of service the day before next summer’s deadline. At that point, he’d acquire 10-and-5 rights — 10 years of MLB service, including the past five with the same team — thereby granting him full veto power over any trade scenarios. Currently, Berrios can block trades to a slate of eight teams.

Toronto can still carry Berrios into the 2026 season and enjoy the depth he provides. In all likelihood, injuries are going to thin out the top end of the current rotation options. That’s just reality for any big league club in today’s game. But the Jays have viable rotation alternatives, and the looming realization of Berrios’ 10-and-5 rights mean that trading him next winter will be even more complicated if he chooses to forgo his opt-out. There’d also be quite a bit of pressure to try to push a deal across the finish line in late July in the event that the Jays are intent on dealing him this summer.

It’s a complicated scenario, to say the least. Berrios’ contract is underwater but not an albatross. He’s a durable source of steady innings but no longer a borderline All-Star. The Jays can try to trade him this winter or during the season, but they’ll have not only the “clock” of the trade deadline but also the artificial clock of Berrios’ forthcoming full no-trade rights. Moving Berrios now would free up some more space for a run at re-signing Bo Bichette or trying to lure Kyle Tucker to Toronto, though the Jays would probably need to take on some other costs in order to get a deal done. It all makes for a fascinating thread to follow ahead of next week’s Winter Meetings, where convoluted trade packages and high-profile changes of scenery are the norm.

MLB Mailbag: Mets, Red Sox, Murakami, Expansion, Cubs, Tatis

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This week's mailbag gets into the Mets' offseason thus far, Craig Breslow's tenure atop Boston's front office, the Munetaka Murakami situation, how an expansion draft works, the Cubs' anti-deferral policy, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s trade value, and much more.

Ed asks:

I'm finding it hard to understand the Mets thinking. I'm scratching my head about the Marcus Semien/ Brandon Nimmo trade. I asked my friend who's a big Mets fan (his last name is Metz) what he thought and he responded that it depends on what outfielder they replace Nimmo with. I told him that unless they break the bank on Kyle Tucker its not going to be a clear upgrade. I'd say Cody Bellinger is an slight upgrade but after looking at their numbers its amazing how similar Bellinger and Nimmo are offensively and I don't see Cody putting up as good numbers in Citi Field.

Then I heard they are shopping Senga, instead of signing Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez to compliment Senga they are looking to move on all together. Again I think both Framber and Ranger are probably a little better than Senga but if you sign one of them and keep Senga he becomes your # 2 which he is much better suited for.

I believe last year was more of a fluke for Devin Williams than the new norm, but would rather have Diaz, especially since William's problem might have been that he just can't handle the New York limelight. The Mets are now going with Williams as closer unless they resign Diaz and yes it probably closes the door on Diaz unless they want to invest over $100 million on two back end of the bullpen guys.

Just curious what you think of these moves. Do you feel the Mets will be stronger in the OF, Starting and Relief pitching in 2026?

Abner asks:

As a NY Mets fan I would love to see a late innings duo of Edwin Díaz & Devin Williams. But knowing how does David Stearns operate, how realistic is the Mets signing Díaz with Williams already in the fold? Will they look for cheaper options getting a guy like Tyler Rogers and/or Emilio Pagán to be the setup man while Williams is the closer? If they decide to invest heavily in Williams and Díaz, does that mean that they will not invest in an ace for the starting rotation this offseason? Thanks in advance.

On the Nimmo/Semien trade, I agree with Ed's friend.  So far, we've seen a portion of the Mets' offseason puzzle.  It's not close to being complete.

At age 33, Nimmo projects as roughly a 2.5 WAR player next year.  It's true that the free agent market is light on outfielders who are capable of that, beyond Tucker and Bellinger.  But it's also true that 34 MLB outfielders were worth 2.5+ WAR this year, including several few saw coming.  And that doesn't account for platoons that combined for 2.5 WAR-type value.

There's also collapse risk with the 33-year-old Nimmo, who is under contract through 2030.  Let's take a quick look at the last five years and see how many 33-year-old outfielders were worth 2.5+ WAR:

Nimmo's track record is very good, and a projection system is not going to project him to fall off a cliff after a 3-WAR season.  But outfield is a young man's game, and you can see how rare good seasons are at 33+.  With Nimmo, this could be a case of the old adage about trading a player a year too early rather than a year too late.  So I don't mind subtracting a player who probably won't age well, saving some money long-term and bringing in a second baseman with strong defense.  That's not to say Semien doesn't have his own collapse risk at 35, but his speed and defense are holding strong.

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Blue Jays Sign Dylan Cease To Seven-Year Deal

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December 3rd: The full breakdown is provided by Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Cease gets a $23MM signing bonus and then a $22MM salary in 2026. His salary then jumps to $30MM in 2027 and falls by $1MM in each subsequent season. $10MM of his 2026 salary is deferred followed by $9MM in each season after that. The deal also contains awards bonuses and a limited no-trade clause.

December 2nd: The Jays made it official today, announcing they have signed Cease to a seven-year deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the MLBPA values the contract at roughly $184.6MM after adjusting for the deferred money.

November 26th: The Blue Jays are making a major splash at the top of the rotation. Toronto is in agreement with Dylan Cease on a seven-year contract, pending a physical. It’s reportedly a $210MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client, though it includes deferred money that’ll drop the average annual value for luxury tax purposes to roughly $26MM. That puts the net present value closer to $182MM.

Even after adjusting for deferrals, it’s the largest free agent signing in franchise history. Though the Jays gave Vladimir Guerrero Jr. a $500MM extension earlier this year, they’d never gone beyond George Springer’s six-year, $150MM deal on the open market.

Cease, 30 next month, entered free agency as a test case of how much modern front offices care about earned run average. In two of the past three seasons, his ERA has jumped to the mid-4.00s, including a 4.55 mark in 2025. However, in just about every other respect, he has been great. He has been incredibly durable. His control isn’t amazing but he has racked up strikeouts. He has kept his fastball velocity in the upper 90s, while also featuring a slider, knuckle curve and changeup.

Though Cease debuted back in 2019, he has actually never been on the major league injured list, apart from a very brief stint on the COVID list in 2021. He made 12 starts in the shortened 2020 season and has taken the ball at least 32 times in each full season since. In total, he’s made 174 starts since the start of 2020, which leads all major league pitchers. He generally doesn’t pitch deep into games, however, so he’s ninth in that span in terms of innings.

On top of the quantity, the quality has been strong. For that same 2020-25 span, he posted a 3.88 ERA. His 9.9% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he punched out 28.9% of batters faced with a 14.4% swinging strike rate.

As mentioned, his ERA has wobbled in recent years, but it has done so while other elements of his game have stayed more consistent. He actually saw his ERA drop to 2.20 in 2022. With the White Sox at that time, he finished second in American League Cy Young voting to Justin Verlander. His ERA then shot up to 4.58 in 2023, dropped to 3.47 in 2024 and then climbed back up to 4.55 this year.

But during those ups and downs, his strikeout and walk rates have been less volatile. His strikeout rate did drop from 30.4% in 2022 to 27.3%, but then it climbed to 29.4% and 29.8% in the two most recent campaigns. His 10.4% walk rate in 2022 decreased to 10.1% and 8.5% in the next two years, followed by a slight uptick to 9.8% in 2025.

His batting average on balls in play, which tends to be a bit more luck based, has synched up more with his ERA shifts. A standard BABIP is usually around .290 but Cease was down at .260 in that 2022 season. It then swung the other way to .330 in 2023 as Cease’s ERA climbed, then went to .263 and .320 in the two most recent seasons as his ERA dipped and climbed again.

As such, ERA estimators have considered Cease to be far more steady than his actual ERA. His FIP has been between 3.10 and 3.72 for the past four years. His SIERA was at 3.48 in 2022, jumped a bit to 4.10 in 2023, and then has been at 3.46 and 3.58 in 2024 and 2025.

As we were deliberating our Top 50 Free Agents post at MLBTR, we had many debates about whether the inconsistent ERA would hurt his earning power, perhaps leading him to accept a short-term deal with opt-outs, or if teams would overlook the ERA and sign him based on his consistency in other areas. In the end, we opted for latter, predicting a seven-year, $189MM deal. Cease has surpassed that in terms of sticker price, though the deferrals will seemingly put the net present value closer just below that projection.

The Blue Jays are coming off their best season in years, as they charged all the way to Game Seven of the World Series, ultimately falling to the Dodgers in extra innings. However, the season ended with plenty of rotation uncertainty. Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer became free agents. Shane Bieber had a $16MM player option he seemed likely to decline. In the long term, Kevin Gausman is a free agent after 2026. José Berríos has an opt-out in his deal after the upcoming campaign.

In the past few weeks and months, the long-term outlook has improved considerably. Trey Yesavage came up late in the year and was immediately able to get hitters out, quickly establishing himself as a rotation building block. Bieber surprisingly decided to trigger his player option and stick with the Jays for one more year. Now Cease is in the fold for the long run.

That gives the Jays a rotation of Gausman, Cease, Yesavage, Bieber and Berríos going into 2026, with guys like Eric Lauer, Ricky Tiedemann and Bowden Francis also in the mix. Though Bieber and Gausman are slated to depart after the upcoming campaign, with Berríos potentially joining them, Cease can serve as a bridge to another era. By then, it’s possible Jake Bloss has recovered from his Tommy John surgery and is back in the mix. Prospects like Gage Stanifer and Johnny King might have climbed into the picture by then as well.

Toronto is paying a significant cost to lock Cease in as a long-term anchor. RosterResource projected their 2026 payroll around $232MM, while their luxury tax number was right around the $244MM base threshold. It won’t be clear how much either number goes up until the payment and deferral structure is reported. The CBT number is based on the contract’s average annual value, so the salary breakdown doesn’t matter for tax purposes, but the deferrals reduce the contract’s actual value by around $4MM annually.

In any case, the Jays are clearly going to pay the tax in 2026, and this will push them beyond the $264MM first surcharge tier. They’re into CBT territory for a second consecutive season, meaning they’re taxed at a 30% rate for their first $20MM in overages. They’ll pay a 42% tax on spending between $264MM and $284MM, 75% for spending between $284MM and $304MM, and a 90% rate on any further spending. The Cease deal itself comes with roughly $8.5MM in taxes, but the penalties will get higher with any more significant additions.

The Jays almost certainly aren’t done. They’ve been loosely linked to Kyle Tucker and have interest in re-signing Bo Bichette. It seems fair to assume they won’t sign all three of this offseason’s top free agents, but a Bichette reunion could still be in play. They’ve also been linked to late-inning bullpen help, ideally a proven closer who’d push Jeff Hoffman into a leverage role in the seventh and eighth innings.

Cease rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. The Jays are hit with the highest penalty to sign a qualified free agent because they paid the competitive balance tax this year. They’ll surrender their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft plus $1MM from their international bonus pool in 2027. San Diego also paid the luxury tax this year, so they’re entitled to the lowest form of compensation: a selection after the fourth round next summer. They’ll get another of those if/when Michael King signs elsewhere.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first reported the Blue Jays and Cease were in agreement on a seven-year, $210MM deal. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the presence of deferrals, while Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reported the approximate $26MM AAV.

Image courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images.

Giants Sign Sam Hentges

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December 3rd: The Giants officially announced the Hentges signing today.

November 27th: The Giants and left-hander Sam Hentges have agreed to a one-year deal worth $1.4MM, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. The Giants have an open 40-man spot and won’t need to make a corresponding move when the deal becomes official. The southpaw is represented by Warner Sports Management.

It’s a buy-low wild card move for the Giants. Hentges was a solid bullpen piece for the Guardians a few years ago but he hasn’t been healthy for a while. Over the 2022 and 2023 campaigns, Hentges tossed 114 1/3 innings for Cleveland, allowing 2.91 earned runs per nine. His 7.9% walk rate was just barely better than average while his 27.4% strikeout rate and 60.1% ground ball rate were both very strong. He gradually moved up to high leverage work, earning 23 holds over that span.

In 2024, he kept things going for a while, posting a 3.04 ERA over another 23 2/3 innings. However, he hit the injured list in July due to some inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He required surgery in September, a procedure which came with a recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months.

Though he was likely to going miss most or all of 2025, the Guards still kept him around. He was still under club control through 2027, so there was still a potential long-term payoff. He had qualified for arbitration ahead of 2024 as a Super Two player and made $1.1625MM in his first of four arb seasons. The Guards gave him a slight bump to $1.337MM in 2025. Even if he couldn’t manage a late-season return to health, he would still have two further seasons of control.

In 2025, not only did he not make it back to the majors, but he didn’t even begin a rehab assignment. In September, he underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right knee. That procedure comes with a recovery timeline of three to four months. That means he should be healthy by the spring but the Guards decided to move on. They non-tendered Hentges last week, sending him to free agency.

The Giants have swooped in and will sign Hentges, giving him a slight raise over last year, even though he missed the whole season. San Francisco non-tendered Joey Lucchesi last week but currently has Erik Miller, Matt Gage and Reiver Sanmartin as lefties in their bullpen. Hentges is obviously a big unknown, having missed a season and a half at this point. But if he can get back to health, he could be the best southpaw in the bunch.

If he does get back on track, he would be a bargain at a salary barely above the league minimum, which will be $780K next year. He is out of options but could be retained via arbitration for the 2027 season if things go especially well next year.

Photo courtesy of Jim Rassol, Imagn Images

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