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MLBTR Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good morning! Chatting a bit early today, as I have some afternoon commitments. Feel free to send in questions ahead of time, as always. We’ll get going at 11am CT!
  • Hello! I’ll get going in a minute. Feel free to start adding questions to the pile!

Question

  • How many questions do you guys usually get on these chats?

Steve Adams

  • Several hundred. More as we get closer to the Winter Meetings, trade deadline, busier times of year in general. I think last week topped out around 800 participants, and I imagine we’ll hit similar or greater levels this time around

Leave it to Beavers

  • Is Bubic available? Would Heston Kjerstad be enough for a 1 for 1 or has his stock fallen too far?

Steve Adams

  • The Royals are open to moving a starting pitcher for an outfielder. President of baseball ops JJ Picollo has publicly said as much. Bubic only has one year left before free agency, so he’s certainly someone they’ll listen on.That doesn’t mean they’re outright shopping him, however. And while Kjerstad was a high-profile prospect for several years, I think his stock has cratered so much that I wouldn’t give much consideration to trading Bubic for him. I’m not convinced Kjerstad even makes it through the offseason on Baltimore’s 40-man roster.

DC Fan

  • Odds CJ Abrams gets traded?  Nunez is pretty good.

Read more

 

Willson Contreras Becoming More Open To Waiving No-Trade Clause

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Entering the offseason, two of the Cardinals’ three pricey veterans — Sonny Gray and Nolan Arenado — made clear that they were more willing to waive their no-trade clause this winter than they were last. Gray said he’d “definitely” consider the possibility after chatting with new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom about the team’s direction. He’s already been shipped to the Red Sox. Arenado said he’d consider a broader range of teams this winter than last. He remains with St. Louis and will be extremely challenging to trade given his multiyear decline at the plate and the two expensive years left on his contract.

The Cardinals’ third spendy veteran, first baseman Willson Contreras, said on the final weekend of the season that he’d be open to trade scenarios if they made sense for both the organization and his own personal future but emphasized that his preference was to remain in St. Louis. Now, however, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that Contreras has become increasingly open to waiving his no-trade protection to greenlight a deal if he deems the new club to be a good fit.

Perhaps seeing Gray moved and witnessing a deluge of rumors about teammates like Arenado, Brendan Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, JoJo Romero, Nolan Gorman and others has proven eye-opening for Contreras. Maybe watching the 2025 postseason simply reignited his aspirations to return to the playoffs. Whatever the reason, it’s notable that Contreras is now signaling a greater willingness to approve a deal.

That doesn’t make it a foregone conclusion that he’ll be traded. Contreras’ contract isn’t as complicated as that of Gray or Arenado, but it’s not exactly a raucous bargain in its own right. He’s guaranteed $36.5MM over the next two seasons, plus a $5MM buyout on a club option for the 2028 season. That’s $41.5MM still guaranteed to him overall. Would a 33-year-old Contreras (34 in May) command that type of contract in free agency right now? It’s possible, but he likely wouldn’t earn much beyond that.

Contreras is coming off a strong overall season. He hit .257/.344/.447 with 20 home runs, 31 doubles, a triple, five steals, a 25.2% strikeout rate and a 7.8% walk rate. By measure of wRC+, he was 24% better than league-average at the plate. His defense at first base — his first year at the new position — drew strong marks from Statcast (6 Outs Above Average) and a roughly average grade from Defensive Runs Saved (-1). It’s not far-fetched to think his glove will improve as he gains more seasoning at his new defensive home.

The Astros signed Christian Walker for three years and $60MM last offseason, a contract that began with his age-34 season. In that sense, one could argue that Contreras’ contract is about market value from an AAV vantage point ($20.75MM AAV on the remaining guarantee) but is more appealing in that it’s a year shorter. Then again, Walker was an elite defensive first baseman who’d his 95 home runs across the three prior seasons; Contreras was a good-not-great defender in ’25 and has hit 55 home runs over the three prior seasons.

The Cards were willing to pay down around half the money remaining on Gray’s contract to get a decent return. They wouldn’t need to eat as much of the Contreras deal to move him, but the more money they absorb, the better the return they can seek. Trading him without paying down any of the remaining salary likely wouldn’t net much of a return at all.

If the Cardinals are willing to eat some of that cash, there should be no shortage of interest in the three-time All-Star. Clubs like the Red Sox (again!), Rangers, Orioles, Guardians, Mets, Marlins and Padres are lacking certainty at first base and/or designated hitter. The Cardinals appear willing to deal within the division, too, which could make Cincinnati or Pittsburgh viable on-paper fits. Could a catching-needy team go outside the box and acquire Contreras with an eye toward putting him back behind the plate? That might be a reach, but it’s a very thin market for catching both in free agency and trade this offseason.

For the Cards, the benefit of trading Contreras is straightforward. Obviously, trimming payroll ahead of a season (likely multiple seasons) where the team doesn’t expect to compete for a World Series would be preferable for ownership. Moving Contreras and including cash in the deal could also net prospect talent of some note, furthering the clear rebuilding efforts.

Trading Contreras would also open first base full-time for Alec Burleson, thereby creating more room in the outfield for players like Joshua Baez, Nathan Church and the seemingly stalled out Jordan Walker (among others). They could also continue giving Burleson some occasional reps in left field and at DH, thus opening more first base reps for Gorman, whose playing time elsewhere in the infield is going to be cut into by top prospect JJ Wetherholt. Then again, Gorman himself could be traded this winter.

Contreras is just one of many Cardinals who could find himself on the move before too long this winter. Bloom & Co. are known to be working to trade Arenado while listening to offers on Donovan, Romero, Nootbaar, Gorman and others. At this point, Contreras and Arenado are the only two Cardinals who are guaranteed any money beyond the current season.

Mets Not Ruling Out Edwin Diaz Reunion Despite Williams Signing

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Dec. 2:  While the Mets do still hope to re-sign Díaz, there’s been a gap in talks. Will Sammon of The Athletic reports that while Díaz has indeed been seeking a five-year pact, the Mets’ preference has been to limit the commitment to a three-year term (presumably at a top-of-the-market annual value).

Dec. 1: The Mets are adding Devin Williams to the back of their bullpen on a three-year contract. That gives them an established closer if Edwin Díaz signs elsewhere, but it apparently won’t completely shut the door on Díaz staying in Queens.

Anthony DiComo of MLB.com was among those to report that the Mets still have interest in re-signing Díaz. It seems Williams is on board with that plan, as DiComo writes that the new signee is open to pitching in a setup capacity if the Mets bring back their incumbent closer. Díaz rejected a qualifying offer and is reportedly seeking a deal in the five-year, $100MM range. At last month’s award ceremony, the three-time All-Star put the chance of a reunion around 50-50. “If they came with the best deal for me, I’d enjoy to stay with them,” Díaz told reporters at the time, “but at the end of the day, I don’t know what they’re thinking.”

The Williams signing presumably reduces the odds of a Díaz return. The Mets might feel more comfortable walking away and collecting a compensatory draft pick now that they no longer need a closer. Yet they certainly still need to add in the late innings. Tyler Rogers, Ryan Helsley, Gregory Soto and Ryne Stanek also all hit free agency. If Williams were penciled into the ninth, Huascar Brazoban would be their most established right-handed setup man. They should bring in another two high-leverage relievers at least.

Díaz is also simply an upgrade over Williams in the ninth inning. While there’s reason for optimism in the latter’s track record and underlying metrics, he’s a bit of a gamble coming off an uneven year with the Yankees. Díaz has no such concerns, as he posted a 1.63 earned run average while striking out 38% of opponents across 66 1/3 innings last season. He went 28-31 in save chances. That’ll be reflected in their respective contracts, but the bullpen would look a lot more formidable with Williams in the eighth and Díaz back in the ninth.

The Blue Jays are the only other team that has been publicly linked to Díaz this offseason. Teams like the Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, Tigers, Red Sox, Cubs, Diamondbacks and Angels could also be in the mix for high-leverage bullpen help.

Braves Sign Danny Young

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The Braves announced Tuesday morning that they’ve signed left-handed reliever Danny Young to a one-year, major league contract. It’s a split deal, paying the 31-year-old at different rates for time spent in the majors versus time in the minors. Young, a client of Dynamic Sports Group, goes onto Atlanta’s 40-man roster. He’ll be paid at a $925K rate in the majors, MLBTR has learned.

This will be Young’s second stint in Atlanta. He spent the 2023 season with the Braves organization as well, pitching 8 1/3 terrific innings in the majors and struggling in 15 2/3 minor league frames. Injuries limited his time on the field that year, and that’ll be the case in 2026 as well. Young has spent the past two seasons pitching well out of the Mets’ bullpen but underwent Tommy John surgery last May. By signing in Atlanta, he’ll reunite with Jeremy Hefner — his pitching coach with the Mets who has left and taken the same title with the Braves.

Young will open the ’26 season on the injured list as he finishes off the rehab from that Tommy John procedure. A source tells MLBTR that he began throwing last month and is targeting a return to game action before the All-Star break.

Young has pitched in parts of four major league seasons. He’s totaled 60 2/3 innings in that time and logged a 4.01 earned run average with far more intriguing rate stats: 29% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate, 53.3% ground-ball rate. Metrics like SIERA (3.02) and FIP (3.23) feel he’s been far better than his ERA would indicate, which isn’t a surprise considering his solid rate stats but bloated .344 average on balls in play.

Once spring training opens, Young will very likely be transferred to the 60-day IL to open a spot on the 40-man roster. If Atlanta needs that spot sooner, they could run him through waivers in the offseason. The salary terms might allow Young to go unclaimed, and while he’d have the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, doing so would require forfeiting the guaranteed money on his split major league and minor league rates of pay.

If Young stays on the 40-man roster/60-day injured list until the time of his activation, he’ll give Atlanta another southpaw option in a bullpen that already includes Dylan Lee and Aaron Bummer. Out-of-options lefties Dylan Dodd and Joey Wentz are also penciled into bullpen spots at the moment.

Should Young bounce back to form, he’s a potential long-term piece in the Atlanta ’pen. He enters the 2026 season with only 1.160 years of major league service time, meaning he can be controlled for five more seasons — all the way through 2030. Obviously, there’s a long way to go before that long-term control comes into play, but the fact that the Braves put him directly onto the 40-man roster suggests an openness to plugging Young into the mix beyond the current season if he performs well; notably, Bummer is a free agent following the 2026 campaign.

The Opener: Relief Market, Mets, MLBTR Chat

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Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on throughout the day:

1. Relief market buzzing:

Last night saw the Mets sign right-hander Devin Williams to a three-year, $51MM deal (with $15MM in deferrals). It’s the latest in a string of relief signings that also includes deals for Ryan Helsley, Raisel Iglesias, and Phil Maton. With three impact closers already off the board and a number of teams (including the Blue Jays, Dodgers, and Marlins) known to be looking for relief help this winter, that can only be good news for the remaining high-leverage relief arms on the market. Edwin Diaz remains at the front of the pack, with Robert Suarez, Pete Fairbanks, Emilio Pagan, and Kyle Finnegan among the many noteworthy bullpen arms still available on the market.

2. Mets land a big fish:

Last night’s Williams deal provides cover for the Mets if Diaz winds up signing elsewhere, though they’re also not ruling out a reunion with their star ninth-inning man. Regardless of what happens with Diaz, there’s plenty more work to be done for the Mets this winter. Pete Alonso needs to be re-signed or replaced on the infield, there are multiple holes in the outfield, and trade candidacies for players like Jeff McNeil and Kodai Senga have yet to be resolved. And that’s all before considering the Mets’ well-known desire to improve the front of their rotation this winter. It’s already been a busy offseason in Queens — the Mets also swapped out Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien — but president of baseball operations David Stearns shows no signs of slowing down yet.

3. MLBTR chat today:

The offseason is underway, and the hot stove is starting to sizzle. Five of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents have signed so far (in addition to the four who accepted qualifying offers), and the trade market has started buzzing early as Taylor Ward, Grayson Rodriguez, Marcus Semien, and Brandon Nimmo have all changed hands in the first few weeks of the offseason. Whether your team is looking to load up for a playoff run next year or rebuild for the future, MLBTR’s Steve Adams has you covered in a live chat at 11am CT later today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Mets, Devin Williams Agree To Three-Year Deal

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Another free agent reliever has come off the board. The Mets are reportedly in agreement with Devin Williams on a three-year deal that guarantees the Klutch Sports client $51MM, though the net present value is knocked down by $15MM in deferrals.

Williams receives a $6MM signing bonus that’ll be paid in $2MM installments. He receives $15MM annual salaries, $5MM of which is deferred each season. (Signing bonuses are paid even in the event of a work stoppage, while players would not receive salaries for any games lost to a 2027 lockout.) There’s also reportedly a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade.

A second-round pick by the Brewers in 2013, Williams took a while to climb through the minor leagues as a starting pitcher. He took off after being moved to the bullpen in 2019, climbing from Double-A to the big leagues by the end of that season. Williams emerged as one of the sport’s best late-game weapons by his first full big league season. He turned in a 0.33 ERA across 27 innings during the shortened 2020 schedule and claimed the National League Rookie and Reliever of the Year Awards.

The righty continued to dominate over the next few seasons, forming a lethal back-end duo with Josh Hader. Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns had a front row seat as Milwaukee’s front office leader for most of that tenure. Williams stepped into the ninth inning when Milwaukee sent Hader to San Diego at the ’22 deadline. He reeled off 36 saves in 40 tries with a 1.53 ERA to win his second career Reliever of the Year honors a year later.

Over his first four full seasons, Williams pitched to a 1.75 ERA while striking out 40.5% of opposing hitters. Heading into 2024, there was a decent argument for him as the best reliever in MLB. He hit his first real setback that Spring Training, as testing revealed two stress fractures in his back. He didn’t make his season debut until shortly before the trade deadline. Williams looked every bit as dominant during the regular season, reeling off 21 2/3 frames of three-run ball with 38 strikeouts to finish the year. His season ended in heartbreak fashion, as he surrendered a go-ahead homer to Pete Alonso in the final game of the Wild Card Series.

That wound up being Williams’ final action in a Milwaukee uniform. Before his last year of arbitration, the Brewers flipped him to the Yankees for starter Nestor Cortes and rookie infielder Caleb Durbin. The Yankees felt they were acquiring one of the ten best relievers in the sport. Williams’ results, at least, didn’t come close to those expectations.

The 31-year-old righty had an inconsistent lone season in the Bronx. He was terrible early on, giving up multiple runs in three of his first 10 appearances. Consecutive poor outings at the end of April led the Yankees to move him to a setup role and put Luke Weaver back into the ninth inning. Williams had one more rough appearance in early May before settling into a groove over the next few weeks. He returned to closing when Weaver landed on the injured list at the beginning of June.

Williams was lights out from that point through the All-Star Break. He gave up runs in seven of his first nine appearances of the second half, though, and the Yankees pushed him out of the closer role for good when they acquired David Bednar at the trade deadline. Williams posted a 5.06 ERA in the second half despite striking out nearly 40% of batters faced — the second-best rate among qualified relievers behind Mason Miller. He worked in a setup capacity late in the season and into the playoffs. Williams tossed four scoreless frames with four strikeouts in the postseason.

The end result was a career-worst 4.79 earned run average over 67 appearances. The Mets are placing a decent sized bet that the poor run prevention was a fluke. Opponents had a .339 batting average on balls in play when runners were on base. That’s easily the highest mark in Williams’ career (aside from his brief 2019 debut). He had a very difficult time stranding runners as a result. While relievers certainly need to be able to work out of tough situations, that had never previously been an issue.

Batted ball metrics can be volatile, especially for relievers who only throw 60-70 innings in a season. Williams’ stuff still grades out extremely well, and he remains capable of missing bats at a level that few other pitchers can match. He struck out 34.7% of opponents behind a 16.8% swinging strike rate. Those are down slightly from his usual marks but remain among the best in MLB. Among relievers with 50+ innings, Williams finished eighth in strikeout rate and 10th in whiffs.

Williams has two pitches which he has used at roughly equal rates over the past couple seasons. His fastball sits around 94 MPH and while it’s a good pitch, his standout offering is his unique “Airbender” screwball/changeup. The pitch still moves unlike any other changeup in the league, and opponents have hit below .200 against it in every full season of his career.

The underlying numbers made Williams a popular “buy-low” target among teams and fanbases. That is borne out in the contract to an extent. Williams might have been in the running for a $100MM deal had he posted another sub-2.00 ERA season. It didn’t force him to settle for a pillow contract, as he’s still being paid as a high-end reliever. Williams falls well short of the four years and $72MM which Tanner Scott commanded last winter, but he’s within the $46-58MM range in which closers Robert Suarez, Liam Hendriks and Raisel Iglesias have found themselves over the past few offseasons. He came up shy of the four years and $68MM which MLBTR had predicted in ranking him the second-best reliever in the class.

While an ugly walk year ERA still has some impact on a pitcher’s market, Williams is the third example this offseason of teams placing a decent amount of emphasis on stuff and whiffs in spite of that. Dylan Cease commanded a seven-year deal from the Blue Jays coming off a 4.55 ERA over 32 starts. Ryan Helsley pulled $14MM annually from the Orioles on a two-year contract with an opt-out despite a brutal finish to his 2025 season with the Mets. It’s easier for clubs to place that kind of bet on pitchers coming from a different team. The Mets were never likely to bring back Helsley, and while the Yankees reportedly kept in contact with Williams’ camp, they also opted not to issue him a $22.025MM qualifying offer that probably would have kept him around on a one-year deal.

The Mets obviously don’t feel that Williams is incapable of succeeding in New York. He’ll slot into a key late-inning role in Carlos Mendoza’s bullpen. He projects as the closer for now but could slide back into a setup capacity if the Mets bring back Edwin Díaz, which they’re reportedly still considering. If the Mets allow their longtime closer to walk, they’ll need to bring in multiple right-handed setup arms to bridge the gap to Williams in the ninth.

RosterResource projects the Mets’ 2026 payroll and luxury tax commitments in the $277-280MM range. They’re likely to end up beyond the $304MM final surcharge threshold by the time they address the rotation, bullpen, and/or first base and the corner outfield. The estimate from FanGraphs currently has them in the second tier of penalization — just below the $284MM cutoff for Tier 3. They’re taxed at a 62% rate for spending between $264MM and $284MM, so the Williams signing comes with an approximate $8-10MM tax hit depending on the calculation of the net present value. They’ll pay a 95% tax on spending between $284MM and $304MM and a 110% bill on any money beyond $304MM.

Will Sammon of The Athletic reported that the Mets and Williams had agreed to a three-year deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan noted that the guarantee was above $50MM, while Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the salary/bonus/deferral breakdown. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal was first on the assignment bonus.

Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz, Imagn Images.

Dave Morehead Passes Away

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Former big league pitcher Dave Morehead passed away last week, according to a report from J.P. Hoornstra of Newsweek. He was 82.

Morehead was a San Diego native who signed with the Red Sox as a 17-year-old. He was in the big leagues two years later, winning 10 games and pitching 174 2/3 innings in his age-19 season. The 6’1″ righty threw a complete game shutout with 10 strikeouts to beat the Washington Senators in his MLB debut. Morehead would go on to record 136 punchouts with a 3.81 earned run average in what was arguably the best season of his career.

He’d hold a rotation spot in Boston for the next two seasons. Morehead’s ERA spiked north of 4.00 in each of the next two years, though he started 30+ games and topped 130 strikeouts in both seasons. The highlight of his career came at the end of the ’65 season. Morehead fired a no-hitter in a 2-0 win over Cleveland that September. He fanned eight and only allowed one baserunner (a second-inning walk to Rocky Colavito) to outduel Luis Tiant. It was the 14th no-hitter in franchise history.

Morehead battled injuries and was limited to a combined 33 regular season appearances over the next three seasons. The Sox won 92 games to claim the AL pennant in 1967. Morehead got into two games during the Fall Classic, working around four walks to toss 3 1/3 scoreless frames. Boston came up just short of a title, as Bob Gibson won three times to push the Cardinals to a seven-game Series win.

After the ’68 season, Morehead went to Kansas City in the expansion draft. He pitched two seasons with the Royals to finish his career. Morehead pitched to a 4.15 ERA with 627 strikeouts over 819 1/3 innings in parts of eight campaigns. MLBTR sends our condolences to Morehead’s family, friends and loved ones.

Latest On Giants’ Offseason Targets

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The Giants are among the teams looking to upgrade at second base, write Ken Rosenthal and Katie Woo of The Athletic. The keystone and right field are the obvious needs on the position player side for Buster Posey’s front office.

Tyler Fitzgerald entered the season as San Francisco’s starting second baseman. He’d hit .280/.334/.497 over 96 games during an impressive 2024 rookie campaign. A 32% strikeout rate always made him a clear regression candidate, however, and the Louisville product stumbled to a .217/.278/.327 line this past season. Fitzgerald lost his hold on the starting job by the end of June and spent most of the second half in Triple-A.

Casey Schmitt now holds the top spot on the depth chart. Schmitt had a league average .237/.305/.401 slash line over 348 plate appearances. That’s carried largely by a scorching two-week stretch in June, and he hit .227/.282/.402 after the All-Star Break. Light-hitting utility player Christian Koss is the only other option on the 40-man roster. Giants second basemen had a .217/.273/.343 showing on the season overall.

There’s not a whole lot available in free agency. There’s a clear roster fit for Bo Bichette if he’s willing to move to the other side of the second base bag, but the Giants already have three long-term deals in the infield for Matt Chapman, Willy Adames and Rafael Devers. They could make a run at Ha-Seong Kim, who declined a $16MM player option and is one of the better shortstops available in a barren class.

Jorge Polanco’s knee injuries make him an iffy bet for everyday playing time at second base. The Giants won’t have many designated hitter at-bats available barring a surprising Bryce Eldridge trade. Luis Arraez would be an offensive upgrade but has been pushed mostly to first base over the past two seasons because of his lack of range. Utility pieces Willi Castro, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Luis Rengifo and Adam Frazier have limited upside.

There’s a little more available on the trade market. The Rays are willing to consider offers on Brandon Lowe, who’ll make $11.5MM in the final year of his contract. More than half the league should have interest in Cardinals utilityman Brendan Donovan. The Giants have an interesting group of controllable but not quite proven arms (e.g Landen Roupp, Hayden Birdsong, Trevor McDonald, Blade Tidwell, Carson Whisenhunt) that could get the ball rolling in talks with the Cards, who are focusing on pitching in their trade returns. That’s theoretically also true if they want to make a push for Ketel Marte, though it’d be shocking if the Diamondbacks deal him within the division.

San Francisco is balancing the positional questions against their needs on the pitching staff. Posey called pitching the priority at the beginning of the offseason. Chairman Greg Johnson and general manager Zack Minasian each subsequently downplayed the team’s desire to make a long-term investment on the pitching side. ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested over the weekend that the club was more involved on mid-tier free agent starters.

This afternoon, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic also downplayed the likelihood of a huge splash for a starter. Baggarly writes that the Giants do not expect to sign Tatsuya Imai and are unlikely to make a nine-figure commitment to any other top-tier starter (e.g. Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez). That aligns with Olney’s reporting about the Giants playing in the middle of the market.

Baggarly adds that the Giants are also looking to rebuild a bullpen that was hit hard this summer. They traded away Camilo Doval and Tyler Rogers (though the latter would have been a free agent anyhow) and lost breakout righty Randy Rodríguez to Tommy John surgery. Their only acquisition so far this offseason has been a one-year flier on lefty reliever Sam Hentges, who hasn’t thrown an MLB pitch since July 2024 because of shoulder and knee surgeries.

Nationals To Hire Corey Ray As First Base Coach

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The Nationals are going to hire Corey Ray as first base coach, reports Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post. He had previously been working for the Cubs in the minor leagues. He will replace Gerardo Parra as the first base coach in Washington.

Ray, 31, was once a high profile prospect. The Brewers selected him fifth overall in the 2016 draft and signed him with a $4.125MM bonus. He clearly had incredible tools in terms of power and speed but he had trouble recognizing breaking pitches. This led to a lot of swing-and-miss, especially as he climbed the minor league ladder and faced better pitching. When he first reached Triple-A in 2019, he struck out in 38.7% of his plate appearances. He would lower than number in future seasons but still ended up walking back to the dugout about a third of the time.

His prospect stock dimmed but the Brewers still didn’t want to lose him in the 2019 Rule 5 draft, so they added him to the 40-man roster. He stuck on the 40-man for a while but only got into one major league game, on April 24th of 2021, going 0-2 with one walk, one strikeout and one run scored. He was sent through waivers unclaimed in June of 2022. He became a minor league free agent at season’s end and didn’t sign anywhere else.

In the spring of 2023, the Cubs hired Ray to serve as a bench coach for their Single-A Myrtle Beach affiliate. Going into 2024, he was named manager of the club’s Arizona Complex League team. Nusbaum notes that Ray has also been serving as the organization’s baserunning coordinator.

The Nats are undergoing a major overhaul of their organization. Their ongoing rebuild has failed to show much progress and so just about everything is on the chopping block. President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez were fired midseason. In September, Paul Toboni was hired as the club’s new president of baseball operations.

In October, it was reported that interim manager Miguel Cairo wouldn’t be continuing in that role while six coaches would only be brought back if the new manager wanted them on the staff. Those six were pitching coach Jim Hickey, hitting coach Darnell Coles, third base coach Ricky Gutierrez, bullpen coach Ricky Bones, catching/strategy coach Henry Blanco and Parra. Blake Butera was hired as the new manager a couple of days after that reporting. Since then, the Nats have hired Michael Johns as bench coach, Simon Mathews as pitching coach and now Ray as first base coach.

Fresh blood seems to be the name of the game. Johns is 50 years old but Toboni is 35, Butera 33 and Mathews 30. As mentioned, Ray is just 31 and not too far removed from his playing days. Younger doesn’t necessarily mean better and the Nats are presumably looking at attributes other than just age but it is perhaps an interesting symbol of how the organization felt it was falling behind the times and needed to quickly modernize.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

Orioles Sign Ryan Helsley

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The Orioles have signed right-hander Ryan Helsley to a two-year contract that allows him to opt out after the 2026 season. It’s reportedly a $28MM guarantee for the Wasserman client, who’d also receive a $500K assignment bonus if he’s traded. The salary is evenly distributed, so Helsley will decide on a $14MM player option next winter.

Felix Bautista underwent shoulder surgery last August that will keep the closer on the injured list until at least August 2026, and that timeline means one setback could sideline Bautista for the entirety of the 2026 campaign.  As a result, the Orioles headed into the offseason looking for multiple bullpen additions, including a pitcher with past experience as a closer.

Helsley fits that description, as he racked up 105 saves as the Cardinals’ primary ninth-inning choice from 2022-25.  This stretch saw Helsley named to two NL All-Star teams, he was the NL’s Reliever Of The Year in 2024, and he even received some down-ballot Cy Young Award consideration in both 2022 and 2024.  Overall, Helsley posted a 2.67 ERA, 29.12% strikeout rate, and 9.93% walk rate over 299 2/3 innings in a St. Louis uniform, from his debut with the team in 2019 until he was traded to the Mets at last July’s trade deadline.

Given the Cardinals’ struggles over the last few seasons and Helsley’s looming free agency, it was seen as a surprise that it took so long for the reliever to be traded.  (In fact, the Orioles were first rumored to be interested in Helsley back in May 2024.)  Even trading Helsley last winter in the wake of his excellent 2024 would’ve brought a greater return back to the Cardinals, though they still landed three prospects in the midseason deal with New York.  And, considering how things went south for Helsley with the Mets, it’s hard to say the Cards didn’t come out on top in the deal.

Over 20 innings and 22 appearances with the Mets, Helsley was torched for a 7.20 ERA, with his home run rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate all going in the wrong direction.  Helsley felt he was tipping his pitches during his time in New York, but whatever the cause, the move back into a setup role behind Edwin Diaz ended up as a wash.  Helsley’s struggles were one of the many reasons behind a disastrous second half for the Mets that saw the team slowly fade out of the playoff race and ultimately fall short of the postseason.

Despite this rough stretch, close to half the league reportedly had interest in Helsley on the open market.  The Blue Jays, Cubs, and Tigers were among the many teams who saw Helsley as a bounce-back candidate and, intriguingly, Detroit and some other clubs viewed Helsley as a potential starting pitcher.  Given how Helsley has never started a game at the MLB level, it would’ve been a surprising development to see him land somewhere as a rotation candidate, but he’ll now settle into his familiar closing role in Baltimore.

MLB Trade Rumors still ranked Helsley 36th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents. He topped our projection of a two-year, $24MM deal, and he might end up handily topping $24MM over a two-year timeframe depending on what happens with his opt-out clause.  If he rediscovers his 2024 form, Helsley will surely choose to re-enter free agency in search of a more lucrative longer-term contract.  The Orioles might not mind that scenario if Bautista is back healthy by that point, and Helsley could then be tagged with a qualifying offer heading into free agency next winter.

Helsley brings elite velocity and spin with his 99.3mph fastball, though batters teed off on Helsley’s fastball in 2025, and his slider has been the more effective of his pitches over the last few years.  The righty has long struggled to avoid walks or hard contact, though the home run ball was never a huge issue until his brief stint with the Mets.  It obviously wasn’t the ideal platform for Helsley as he entered free agency, yet it is understandable why the Orioles still felt comfortable in making a two-year investment in his services.

Even a two-year pact counts as a big step for an O’s front office that has been pretty conservative about investing heavily in free agents.  Much of Mike Elias’ seven-year stint in charge of the baseball operations department was spent rebuilding, of course, but Tyler O’Neill’s three-year, $49.5MM deal from last winter is the only other multi-year contract Elias has even given to a free agent.  The Orioles’ disappointing 75-win performance in 2025 may have raised the urgency level, as Baltimore has been linked to a number of top-shelf names in this year’s free agent market.

Between signing Helsley and re-acquiring old friend Andrew Kittredge, the back end of the Orioles’ bullpen looks much sturdier than it did at season’s end.  More relievers could still be on the way, but Baltimore’s primary pitching need is now rotation help.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported that Helsley was in agreement with Baltimore on a two-year deal with an opt-out. Katie Woo of The Athletic had the $28MM guarantee, while The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal first reported the $500K assignment bonus. The Associated Press reported the salary breakdown.

Inset photo courtesy of Brad Penner — Imagn Images

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