Blue Jays Sign Patrick Corbin
The Blue Jays announced that they have signed left-hander Patrick Corbin to a one-year deal and optioned him to Low-A Dunedin. It’s worth $1MM, per Mitch Bannon of The Athletic. There are also incentives worth $1MM, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. The Jays had 40-man vacancies and don’t need to make a corresponding move. Corbin has enough service time where he can’t be optioned without his consent, so he has presumably agreed to be sent down to get built up.
The signing is a response to the injury woes that have befallen the Toronto rotation in recent weeks. Shane Bieber is being built up slowly due to some offseason forearm fatigue. Trey Yesavage was slowed by a shoulder impingement. José Berríos was diagnosed with some elbow inflammation late in camp.
Those three started the season on the injured list, which left the Jays with a season-opening rotation of Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease, Eric Lauer, Cody Ponce and Max Scherzer. Unfortunately, Ponce sprained the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in his first start. His timeline isn’t exactly clear but he seems to be slated for a lengthy absence.
Though Corbin missed spring training, he may be able to help the Jays relatively soon. Per Nicholson-Smith, he has been working out while unsigned and has gotten himself up to 80 pitches. He has agreed to head to Dunedin but it’s possible he may not need a full spring-style ramp-up of six weeks or so.
More to come.
Jordan Lawlar To Miss Six To Eight Weeks With Broken Wrist
Diamondbacks outfielder Jordan Lawlar has a right wrist fracture, manager Torey Lovullo tells reporters, including Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic. The Diamondbacks have placed him on the 10-day injured list. Catcher Adrian Del Castillo was reinstated from the 10-day IL in a corresponding move. Arizona also made a move on the pitching side. They selected the contract of right-hander Taylor Rashi and designated fellow righty Joe Ross for assignment. Prior to the official announcement, Piecoro noted that Rashi had the locker previously occupied by Ross.
It’s yet another unfortunate chapter in the Lawlar story. The youngster has been one of Arizona’s top prospects for years but hasn’t been able to cement himself in the big leagues. He has often been blocked by more established players. When an opening would appear, Lawlar would himself be hurt or would struggle. He finished 2025 with a .165/.241/.237 line in 108 big league appearances.
The club grew impatient with his infield defense and moved him to the outfield for 2026. He earned an Opening Day spot and was hitting well. He hit his first major league home run last night, pushing his season-long batting line to .333/.400/.556 by the end of the game. Unfortunately, he was hit on his wrist by a pitch in the seventh inning. He stayed in the game to run the bases but was replaced defensively in the top of the eighth. Now Lawlar is slated for another notable absence, once again delaying his path to becoming an established big leaguer.
For the Snakes, their outfield takes a hit. They still have Corbin Carroll in right and Alek Thomas in center but Lawlar’s injury means they will have to figure out what to do in left. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Pavin Smith could be part of the solution down the road but both are currently on the IL. Del Castillo is unlikely to help, as his outfield experience consists of two Triple-A innings back in 2023. He was likely only called up because the Diamondbacks have no one else to turn to. Every position player on the 40-man roster is either on the active roster or injured list.
For now, they will likely use some combination of Jorge Barrosa, Tim Tawa and Ildemaro Vargas. Piecoro says they decided against calling up prospect Ryan Waldschmidt because that would require a 40-man spot and Gurriel is expected back soon.
Turning to the pitching staff, the Diamondbacks signed Ross to a minor league deal in the offseason. The veteran swingman cracked the Opening Day roster but has been lit up so far. He has allowed eight earned runs in 3 2/3 innings, giving him an unsightly 19.64 earned run average. That’s obviously a small sample size but Ross also issued four walks compared to just two strikeouts.
Arizona was crushed last night, losing 17-2 to Atlanta. Ross did what he could to spare the staff, tossing two innings, but he threw 52 pitches in the process and likely wasn’t going to be available for a few days. He’ll now head into DFA limbo, which can last as long as a week. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so Arizona could spend as long as five days exploring trade interest. If Ross clears waivers, he has enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency.
Rashi, 30, got to make his major league debut with the Diamondbacks last year. He posted a 4.41 ERA in 16 1/3 innings. His 11.1% walk rate was high but he struck out 30.6% of batters faced and induced grounders on 42.9% of balls in play. He was non-tendered at the end of the season but then was re-signed via a minor league deal. He began the season at Triple-A Reno and made one scoreless appearance of an inning and two thirds.
Photo courtesy of Arianna Grainey, Imagn Images
Cade Horton Exits Start Due To Forearm Discomfort
Cubs righty Cade Horton exited today’s start after calling for a trainer in the second inning. The Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro points out that Horton’s final pitch was a fastball that clocked in about two miles per hour shy of his season average. Taylor McGregor of the Marquee Sports Network adds that the Cubs are calling Horton’s injury right forearm discomfort.
It’s an ominous development for a Cubs team that opened the season without ace Justin Steele, who is still on the mend from last April’s UCL surgery. Horton, 24, was the National League Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2025 after kicking down the door to the majors with a 2.67 ERA in his first 118 big league frames. The 2022 No. 7 overall pick’s 20.4% strikeout rate was a couple percentage points shy of average, but he offset that with strong command (6.9% walk rate), an average ground-ball rate (42.3%) and a knack for avoiding hard contact. He’s pitched 7 1/3 innings this season between his debut and today’s abbreviated start. Opponents have two runs on four hits and a walk.
Obviously, it’s too soon to say whether Horton will miss an extended period of time — if he misses any at all. Even a short-term IL stint would sting, however. The rest of the Chicago rotation includes Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga and trade acquisition Edward Cabrera. Steele and former first-rounder Jordan Wicks are both on the injured list already.
Veteran swingman Colin Rea is in the bullpen and could start in the short term if the Cubs need. He filled in admirably last year when injuries piled up on the starting staff. Rea posted a 4.33 ERA in 27 starts last season and a 0.56 ERA in 16 relief innings. He was manager Craig Counsell‘s go-to option today as well, taking over after Horton’s exit. Righty Ben Brown worked as a starter in camp and is still stretched out for multiple innings as well; he’s tossed 6 2/3 frames in two appearances this season.
Looking further down the depth chart, righty Javier Assad is in Triple-A and already on the 40-man roster. He’s pitched to a 3.43 ERA in 331 major league innings, mostly out of the rotation, though injuries limited him to 55 1/3 innings between Triple-A and the big leagues last year. Top prospect Jaxon Wiggins is also in Triple-A but would need to be added to the 40-man roster. Veterans Kyle Wright and Vince Velasquez also opened the season with the Cubs’ top affiliate in Des Moines after signing minor league deals in the winter. Either could be called upon as short-term replacements, although like Wiggins, they’d need to be added to the 40-man roster.
Braves Acquire Víctor Mederos
The Angels have traded right-hander Víctor Mederos to the Braves in exchange for international bonus pool space, according to announcements from both clubs. The righty was designated for assignment a few days ago when the Angels added Shaun Anderson to their roster. Francys Romero of BeisbolFR says the pool space changing hands is $250K. By rule, pool space can only be traded in $250K increments. Atlanta transferred righty AJ Smith-Shawver to the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man spot. Mederos was optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett.
Mederos, 25 in June, has a small and unimpressive major league track record to this point. He has tossed 25 1/3 innings over the previous three seasons with an 8.53 earned run average. Atlanta is presumably more interested in his minor league work. Last year, he made 16 starts at the Triple-A level, posting a 3.39 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He got some help from a 78.4% strand rate and only struck out 18.6% of batters faced but he features mid-90s velocity and a five-pitch mix.
The Halos nudged him off the roster but found enough interest on the trade block to net some international pool space in return. Atlanta gave up that pool space because they could use some extra pitching depth. In the past few weeks, they have lost Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep, Joey Wentz and Spencer Strider to injuries.
They currently have a rotation featuring Chris Sale, Reynaldo López, Grant Holmes, Bryce Elder and Martín Pérez. Sale has a lengthy injury history and is now 37 years old. López only made one start last year due to shoulder surgery. Holmes was diagnosed with a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament last year and is healthy now but it wouldn’t be a shock for that injury to flare up again. Elder had a 5.30 ERA last year. Pérez is a soft-tossing veteran.
Atlanta does have Didier Fuentes and JR Ritchie in Triple-A but those two are fairly lacking in experience. Ritchie still hasn’t cracked the majors. Fuentes has made it to the show but has allowed 21 earned runs in 17 innings. Mederos will give them some extra Triple-A depth and could be called up to the big leagues at some point, if needed.
As for Smith-Shawver, his transfer to the 60-day IL was inevitable. He underwent Tommy John surgery in June of last year. He could return at some point in 2026 but presumably not until after the All-Star break.
Photo courtesy of Jonathan Hui, Imagn Images
Brewers Designate Steward Berroa For Assignment
The Brewers have designated outfielder Steward Berroa for assignment, per a team announcement. His spot on the 40-man roster goes to top infield prospect Cooper Pratt, whose contract has been selected to the 40-man roster now that his previously reported eight-year extension has been finalized. Pratt will remain in Triple-A Nashville for the time being, according to the Brewers.
Berroa, 26, came to the Brewers in a cash swap with the Dodgers back in July. He appeared in two games with Milwaukee last summer, going hitless in six plate appearances but contributing a stolen base after he drew a walk. He’s totaled only 51 major league plate appearances between the Brew Crew and Blue Jays — the team that originally signed him. In that fleeting cup of coffee, Berroa is 6-for-42 (.167/.314/.190) with a double, eight walks and six steals.
In parts of four Triple-A seasons, the switch-hitting Berroa is a .255/.353/.373. That production has come in a sample of 673 plate appearances, during which he’s popped a dozen homers, tallied 25 doubles and three triples, and gone 69-for-86 (80.2%) in stolen base attempts. Statcast credits the 5’9″, 193-pound burner with 89th percentile sprint speed. Berroa has primarily been a center fielder in the minors but has more than 1000 innings in each corner outfield spot over the course of nine professional seasons. He’s drawn above-average grades for his range and arm during his limited MLB run in the outfield (5 Defensive Runs Saved, 3 Outs Above Average in only 120 innings).
This is Berroa’s final minor league option year. A team looking for some speed and/or outfield depth could be drawn to Berroa’s wheels, defensive versatility and knack for drawing walks. Anyone who picks him up would be able to send him to Triple-A without exposing him to waivers. Milwaukee can trade Berroa or place him on waivers at any point within the next five days. Since waivers are a 48-hour process, we’ll know the result of his DFA by this time next week.
Brewers Sign Top Prospect Cooper Pratt To Eight-Year Extension
April 3: The Brewers announced Friday that Pratt has signed his eight-year extension. He’s been selected to the 40-man roster and optioned to Triple-A Nashville. Outfielder Steward Berroa was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.
March 30: The Brewers and prospect Cooper Pratt are reportedly on the verge of finalizing an eight-year contract worth $50.75MM. There will also be two club options worth about $15MM per year, though the value of those options can increase via escalators. The Brewers will need to make a corresponding move to add the Boras Corporation client to their 40-man roster.
It’s a surprising, out-of-nowhere extension. Pratt is 21 years old and hasn’t made it to the majors yet. He only just made his Triple-A debut a few days ago. He wasn’t even going to be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until December of 2027.
Extensions for players with no major league experience are becoming more common but this one feels even a bit more extreme than some of the others. Most pre-debut extensions have been for guys very close to cracking the big leagues. The Brewers themselves did one with Jackson Chourio just over two years ago, an $82MM guarantee, though that one was a bit less surprising. Chourio had finished the prior season at the Triple-A level and seemed highly likely to break camp with Milwaukee in 2024 as he was one of the top three prospects in the sport.
Pratt, on the other hand, mostly features on the back of top 100 prospect lists. Baseball America is the high outlet, putting him at #50. MLB Pipeline has him at #62, ESPN at #70, The Athletic at #99 and he’s not even on the FanGraphs list. He had an okay season at Double-A last year, with a .238/.343/.348 line and 107 wRC+, and only just cracked the Triple-A level to start this season.
Perhaps it speaks to the Brewers being quite high on Pratt’s future. Though his offense was middling last year, the plate discipline was clearly good. His 12.7% walk rate and 15.2% strikeout rate were both strong figures. He only hit eight home runs but could perhaps add more power in time. He stole 31 bags last year and is considered a solid defender at shortstop.
If the Brewers have faith in Pratt’s long-term future, there’s sense in locking him up now. That’s especially true with him being a Boras client. That agency isn’t quite as extension-averse as its reputation but the extensions they have done have almost always been for guys who have reached their arbitration years. According to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, which has data going back to 2006, the Carlos González deal from back in 2011 is the only pre-arbitration extension for a Boras client.
In that context, perhaps the Brewers felt it was worth it to take a gamble on Pratt, even though he is still so early in his career. If they waited until he had been in the big leagues for a few years, the price would go up if he had any kind of success. From the perspective of Pratt, this is a chance for him to lock up some notable earnings and stave off any chance of a bust. Perhaps he will find himself underpaid if he becomes a star, but he’s not the level of surefire, can’t-miss prospect that Chourio was. He could play out this contract, including the options, and still reach free agency after his age-30 season.
What remains to be seen is how this impacts Milwaukee’s short-term plans. Even if Pratt is signed to a big league deal, he doesn’t need to be on the active roster, as he could still be kept in the minors on optional assignment. Joey Ortiz was their everyday shortstop last year. He put up a rough .230/.276/.317 line at the plate but stole 14 bases and was credited with 12 Outs Above Average. He is still in that job and has a massive .455/.500/.455 line so far this year but in a tiny sample of 12 plate appearances.
Ortiz is still under club control for many years but the club may pivot away from him at some point if he can’t post better offense over a sustained stretch of time. He does have options and could be sent to the minors, or perhaps be moved into a utility role since he has experience at second and third base. Pratt has fairly limited experience off the shortstop position but could presumably handle second or third if the Brewers asked him to. For now, Brice Turang is a strong option at the keystone. Third base is a bit more open, with David Hamilton and Luis Rengifo in the mix at the moment.
Looking further down the road, most of those guys still have lots of club control. Rengifo is on a one-year deal but Ortiz, Turang and Hamilton aren’t slated for free agency until after 2029. Prospects Jett Williams, Jesús Made and Luis Peña are generally considered top 100 guys who will be in the mix at some point. Williams has already played at the Triple-A level, Made at Double-A and Pena at High-A. At some point over the horizon, the infield could feel quite crowded, which could perhaps lead to a trade.
In the near term, the deal could have other notable impacts. With the deal in place, the Brewers may not worry about Pratt’s service time, since he would be under club control for the ten years regardless. The Prospect Promotion Incentive could also be interesting here. Pratt would be PPI eligible since he is on the aforementioned prospect lists. Even though he missed the first few games of the season, it’s still early enough for the Brewers to call him up for a full year of service time.
However, a player who signs an extension prior to his major league debut is not eligible to earn PPI picks for his team. Unless the two sides agree to the deal in principle and then don’t officially sign it until after Pratt’s debut, then PPI is off the table.
Altogether, it’s a surprising and curious extension, one that seemingly leads to more questions than it answers. Perhaps the coming days will provide some more clarity on the deal and what it means for all the other moving pieces in Milwaukee.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that the two sides were working on an eight-year deal worth more than $50MM, including those club options. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported the specific guarantee. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that there are escalators on the options. Photos courtesy of Dave Kallmann, Imagn Images.
Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript
Anthony Franco
- Good afternoon, hope you're all well!
- Looking forward to another of these, let's get it going
Brewer Fan
- Is it weird that the Brewers haven't actually announced the Pratt extension? And on that topic, if it does get done, it wouldn't rule out a Made or Pena extension right?
Anthony Franco
- It's a little atypical but I don't think any cause for concern. Adam McCalvy hypothesized yesterday that it's just a logistical holdup on completing the physical
- Which would make sense. He played for Nashville through March 29, the extension report came out on the 30th, and he hasn't played any of their past three games despite being on the active roster. Could just be a travel thing to get him to Milwaukee and get final sign-off on the medical
thebeatlesshow
- Anthony, Thanks again. Is the complete game no hitter on the way to being extinct (if it isn't already)?
Anthony Franco
- I don't think so. Less common, yes, largely because teams are more concerned about pitch counts and there's a decent chance you're running a pretty high number in a no-hitter because it's probably coming with some strikeouts
- But it's still a hell of an accomplishment for a pitcher and managers care about that
- Whoops, just realized I didn't answer the second part of that first Brewers question:
Don't see why Pratt would take a Made or Pena extension off the table, no
Cubbies
- What are the Cubs gonna do with their OF after this season? Happ and Seiya both FAs and Cassie was traded for Cabrera.
Anthony Franco
- QO to both, ideal if one of them accepts and takes that decision off the table. Feels like Happ is the likelier of the two to return if they're signing one to a three-year deal
- If they believe in Kevin Alcántara at all, have to give him a real opportunity next year. He'll be out of options and the strikeout questions aren't getting answered if he's only playing twice a week
Little Texas
- I’m my way to the Rangers home opener to see Gore pitch, Here’s to his CY Young season.
Anthony Franco
- Enjoy!
3D-space ABS
- Why would the Mariners forgo managing a signing like Emerson's so that PPI was still in play?
M
- now that he's signed an extension and thus no longer eligible for the PPI, how long before Emerson is up with the Ms?
-
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2026-27 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: April Edition
The 2026 season is underway and last offseason is officially in the books. While free agency hasn’t completely closed — Lucas Giolito continues to wait for an offer he and his camp find acceptable — we’ll take our first look at next winter’s class.
As a reminder, these lists are based on our predictions of a player’s market value. This isn’t strictly looking at the most valuable free agents. Players in their mid-to-late 30s are going to have a difficult time cracking the top 10 because they’re naturally limited to shorter-term deals. Even in what is shaping up as a weak class, everyone in the top five and arguably the top eight have a path to a nine-figure contract.
MLBTR publishes our first free agent power ranking each April. A player’s walk year performance is the biggest factor in what they make, but their play over one week of the ’26 season doesn’t have much of an impact on their initial ranking. At this point, we’re going more off age and career track record — particularly the past couple seasons. There’s a lot of volatility this far out.
That’s especially true for the 2026-27 class. In recent offseasons, it has been fairly easy to identify the top free agent hitter at least a year in advance. Over the past five years, the respective top free agents on our first in-season rankings were Kyle Tucker, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, and Corey Seager. Seager signed for $325MM, while the other four all set records for overall guarantee and/or average annual value.
This year also features a clear No. 1 free agent, but it’s a pitcher for the first time in years. Pitchers occupy the top two spots, in fact, and Jesús Luzardo would have made three of the top four if not for his recent extension with Philadelphia. Pitchers are riskier bets than an elite free agent hitter because of the ever-present worry of an injury that could wipe out a season or more.
There simply isn’t an impending free agent position player of Tucker’s or Seager’s caliber, much less an Ohtani or Judge. Nico Hoerner had an argument as the best or second-best free agent position player before signing a six-year extension with the Cubs last week. It’s the weakest hitting class in recent memory.
[Related: Who Will Be The Top Free Agent Hitter?]
The likelihood of a lockout looms over any projection of the 2026-27 offseason. It seems inevitable that MLB and the Players Association will not reach agreement on a new collective bargaining agreement before the expiration of the current CBA on December 1. MLB would immediately implement a lockout, freezing all roster movement and communication between teams and players until a new agreement is reached. The 2021-22 lockout brought the sport to a halt for 99 days.
The anticipated lockout isn’t a factor for this list. It’s too early in the process to predict specific contracts. It also doesn’t seem that last winter’s group of free agents feared the work stoppage. Four players accepted qualifying offers, setting the stage for a return to the open market during the expected lockout offseason. A handful of others took short-term deals at higher annual values with opt-out opportunities this winter. The CBA will be the defining story of next offseason, but it has no bearing on the first ranking of the class.
We’ll refresh these rankings at least twice more during the season as injuries and players’ performances change their market value. There’s frequent turnover in the back half of these lists throughout the season. A lack of top-end talent means that’ll be particularly true this year.
One final note: players whose contracts contain opt-out clauses or mutual options are considered for these rankings. Those whose deals have club options are not. For instance, there’s no scenario in which Ronald Acuña Jr. signs a massive free agent contract next offseason. The Braves are all but certain to exercise their $17MM option for the 2027 season. It’d take some kind of catastrophic injury for Atlanta to buy him out.
Onto the rankings:
1. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers
Skubal enters his walk year on track for the largest pitching contract of all time. He’s probably the best pitcher in the game right now, no lower than second after Paul Skenes. Skubal is the two-time defending Cy Young winner in the American League.
Going back to the start of the 2024 season, he carries a 2.25 earned run average that ranks second among qualified pitchers behind Skenes. He’s third in strikeout rate after Garrett Crochet and Chris Sale, each of whom has thrown fewer innings. Only Logan Webb has logged a heavier workload. Skubal has been even more dominant in October, turning in a 2.04 ERA while striking out 38% of opponents in six career playoff starts.
Skubal has a prototype workhorse build and sits in the 97-98 mph range on his fastball. He dominates hitters from either side of the plate and has no issue working deep into games. The only potential concern is that Skubal has twice undergone elbow surgeries: a 2017 Tommy John procedure while in college and a ’22 flexor repair that cost him a year. Skubal has not missed a start since returning from the latter surgery.
As long as he stays healthy, he should shatter the record for the largest pitching contract ever. Excluding the Ohtani deal, that’s currently held by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who got to $325MM over 12 years. Skubal turns 30 in November, so he’s not signing for 12 years, but he could land a nine- or 10-year pact that beats the $43.33MM record average annual value for a pitcher. We’re probably looking at the sport’s first $400MM arm and the clear prize of the winter.
Skubal and agent Scott Boras have already broken new contractual ground. They were rewarded for a bold arbitration filing, resulting in a record salary ($32MM) and the largest single-year jump (nearly $22MM) via that process. He’ll be attached to a qualifying offer unless the Tigers unexpectedly face plant and trade him at the deadline (which makes a player ineligible for the QO). That’s irrelevant for players this good. Teams will happily forfeit a couple draft choices and international bonus pool money to install Skubal atop their rotation for the better part of the next decade.
2. Freddy Peralta, RHP, Mets
Peralta has been one of the best and most consistent starting pitchers in the majors for over five years now. From 2021 to 2025, he has thrown 738 1/3 innings, allowing 3.30 earned runs per nine. His 9% walk rate in that time is around league average while his 29.6% strikeout rate is tied for 16th among 208 qualified pitchers. He has a four-pitch mix consisting of a four-seamer, changeup, slider and curveball, getting good results will all four.
For that span, he has been credited with 14.8 wins above replacement from FanGraphs, making him one of the 20 most valuable pitchers in the league. He hasn’t had a major injury in that time. A lat strain limited him to 18 appearances in 2022, but he has made at least 30 starts in each season since.
After the Mets acquired Peralta from the Brewers this offseason, many expected an extension to keep him in Queens. However, it seems there may be a misalignment of priorities. President of baseball operations David Stearns prefers short-term deals, for all players but especially for pitchers. Including his time with the Brewers as well as with the Mets, he has only twice gone beyond three years for a pitcher. In both cases, they were five-year extensions for pitchers early in their careers. One was for Peralta himself, a $15.5MM deal signed before he was established. The other was a $20.5MM deal for Aaron Ashby.
The Mets would presumably offer Peralta a very high average annual value, but it seems he would prefer a more traditional long-term deal. He has publicly said he is hoping to sign a deal of seven or eight years in length. He would have a case for such a pact. His profile lines up fairly nicely with Dylan Cease, who just got a seven-year deal worth $210MM from the Blue Jays, though deferrals knocked the net present value down to the $180-185MM range. Here are the two pitchers from 2023 to 2025:
Peralta: 95 starts, 516 innings, 28.9% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate, 38.5% ground ball rate, .265 BABIP, 79.8% strand rate, 13% HR/FB, 3.40 ERA, 3.88 FIP, 3.63 SIERA
Cease: 98 starts, 534 1/3 innings, 28.8% strikeout rate, 9.5% walk rate, 37.5% ground ball rate, .304 BABIP, 69.3% strand rate, 10.3% HR/FB, 4.18 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 3.72 SIERA
The strikeout, walk and ground-ball profiles are extremely close. Peralta had a bit better luck in terms of batted balls and sequencing, giving him an edge in the ERA department, but advanced metrics put them much closer together. Front offices these days tend to overlook ERA, as Cease’s deal shows.
Peralta will be one year older than Cease, in baseball terms. Cease signed his deal with the Jays going into his age-30 season. Peralta turns 30 this June, so 2026 will technically be his age-30 campaign. However, the difference is actually just six months. Cease turned 30 in late December, about three months before his first start with the Jays. Peralta will turn 30 about nine months before the start of the ’27 season. Like Cease, he’ll be attached to a qualifying offer but shouldn’t be impacted by draft forfeiture.
3. Bo Bichette, 3B, Mets
Bichette was just one of the top free agents of the past offseason but has a chance to be in that position again. Though he did receive at least one long-term offer — the Phillies reportedly bid around $200MM — he opted to go for a short-term deal with an extremely high average annual values and opt-outs.
With a healthy season, Bichette could return to the open market with fewer questions. He finished last season injured and with an uncertain defensive future. He was never considered an excellent shortstop and then suffered a sprained PCL in his left knee late in the 2025 season. He finished the campaign on the injured list and missed the first few rounds of the Blue Jays’ playoff run. He was activated for the World Series but was clearly not 100% and was limited to second base and designated hitter duty.
Despite the question marks, Bichette still had a robust market thanks to his bat. He doesn’t walk much but is also tough to strike out. He generally has 20-plus homer power, giving him an intriguing contact/power combo. He has a .292/.335/.466 batting line in his career, resulting in a 121 wRC+, indicating he’s been 21% better than league average overall. Before the knee injury in 2025, he hit 18 home runs and slashed .311/.357/.483 for a 134 wRC+.
Bichette’s largest total offer this winter came from the Phillies, who put forth a seven-year framework worth around $200MM. Instead, he signed a three-year deal with the Mets. The $126MM guarantee is well shy of the Philly offer but allows Bichette to bank $42MM this year. If he decides to opt-out, he will collect a $5MM buyout on his way out the door. While turning down $200MM isn’t easy, Bichette can return to free agency with about a quarter of that money already under his mattress.
It’s also theoretically possible he could get an even better long-term offer this coming winter. He will be a year older but still relatively young, as he will turn 29 in March of 2027. The Mets are playing him at third base this year. Moving down the defensive spectrum hurts his earning power, but that was already the expectation for him. Having one year of experience should at least give him some proof of concept at a new position. Ideally, he won’t go into the coming offseason with any health issues. He was a $200MM guy a few months ago and should still be that a few months into the future. He’s ineligible for the qualifying offer after receiving one from Toronto last winter.
4. Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B, Yankees
There’s a clear tier break between the Nos. 3 and 4 players in the class. Chisholm seems to have the highest ceiling of the non-Bichette group of position players. He’s a lefty-hitting middle infielder with plus bat speed and athleticism. Chisholm was one of seven players to go 30-30 last season, setting a career-high with 31 home runs. His matching stolen base total was the second highest of his career.
The hangup is the amount of swing-and-miss in his game. Chisholm has fanned at a higher than average rate in every season of his career. He punched out in 28% of his plate appearances a year ago, batting .242 in the process. A personal-high 10.9% walk rate resulted in a solid .332 on-base percentage, but he has a more pedestrian .315 mark over his career. Chisholm’s career .247/.315/.451 batting line is around eight to nine points better than league average, in the eyes of park-adjusted metrics.
Free agency has generally been unkind to second basemen in recent years. Hoerner’s $141MM extension could be a nice boost for the position, but he may have gotten interest as a shortstop if the Cubs had let him hit free agency. That’s less likely for Chisholm, who is a solid but not elite second baseman and hasn’t played shortstop in five years. He could be an option for teams seeking third base or outfield help, though a downward trend in his sprint speed means he’s probably not returning to the everyday center field work he logged with Miami between 2023-24.
Chisholm will be eligible for qualifying offer. He wouldn’t have much delay in declining it if he repeats last season’s production. He’s one of the younger players in the class, not turning 29 until next February. Matching his 2025 numbers could set him up for a nine-figure contract.
5. Trevor Rogers, LHP, Orioles
The past 12 months have represented a remarkable turnaround for Rogers. Baltimore’s 2024 acquisition of the former All-Star lefty for Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby was heavily scrutinized. He was bombed over his first four starts as an Oriole and optioned to Triple-A to end the ’24 season. He began last season on the injured list and was on optional assignment to Triple-A into the middle of June.
From the time of his final recall through the end of the season, Rogers ripped off 17 starts with a 1.92 ERA. He fanned a slightly above-average 24.4% of opponents against a 7.2% walk rate while holding hitters to a .185/.246/.272 line. Within a half-season, Rogers went from a depth piece to Baltimore’s Opening Day starter. He has opened this season with a pair of quality starts, allowing two runs with an 8-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his first 13 innings.
Rogers’ dominant run prevention hasn’t come with a huge amount of swing-and-miss. He has good but not elite strikeout and whiff rates. His 93 mph average fastball isn’t overpowering on the surface. He gets a lot of weak fly-balls on the heater while using his changeup and sinker as ground-ball offerings. Rogers picked up a sweeper last year to build out the arsenal.
There are obvious red flags to which Rogers’ detractors could point. He’s not going to match last season’s .226 average on balls in play, even if it’s reasonable to expect him to sustain a lower-than-average BABIP based on hitters’ struggles squaring him up. Durability is the other big concern. Rogers has yet to reach even 140 innings in a big league season. He missed time early in his career due to back, lat and biceps issues. A right knee subluxation cost him the first six weeks of the ’25 campaign.
Rogers is among the highest variance players in the class. He could hit the market as a 29-year-old coming off a season and a half of ace-caliber production. Another injury or a slight drop in velocity or whiffs could quickly drop him back into prove-it territory.
There’s a lot of projection in slotting him this high, but it’s also a reflection of how few pitchers in this class are hitting the market in their primes. There are a handful of pitchers below Rogers on this list who have much longer track records, but they’re mostly into their early-mid 30s. Rogers has a chance at a five-plus year deal that most of the older, more established arms do not. He’ll be eligible for a qualifying offer.
6. Michael King, RHP, Padres
King can return to the market by opting out of the final two seasons of his three-year, $75MM deal. The right-hander had a fairly robust market last winter despite being limited to 15 starts, largely by a nerve issue in his shoulder. However, King was unlikely to command five or six years coming off that platform, so he opted for three years with opt-outs to return to the Padres.
This is almost entirely dependent on health. King performed at a borderline ace level throughout 2024 and the first two months of the ’25 season. He struggled down the stretch after returning from the nerve injury and an August IL stay due to a minor knee issue. After a shaky spring, he worked around four walks across five scoreless frames versus the Tigers in his season debut. His 94 mph average fastball was at typical levels.
King won’t be eligible for another qualifying offer. He turns 31 in May, so a free agent deal would begin with his age-32 season. Five-year deals for starting pitchers at that age aren’t common. A healthy season could get him to four years at a strong enough annual value to reach nine figures. Injuries could take him off the market entirely by leading him to forego the opt-out.
7. Daulton Varsho, CF, Blue Jays
Varsho missed the final month of the 2024 season due to a shoulder injury that required offseason surgery. The rehab from that operation, coupled with a separate hamstring strain, limited him to only 71 games in 2025. Despite that considerable time off, he still ranks fifth among all major leaguers, at any position, in Defensive Runs Saved over the past three-plus seasons at 44. The four players above him have all played at least 1000 more innings. Varsho’s 22 Outs Above Average tie him for 23rd in baseball in that same span. The Ultimate Zone Rating metric isn’t as commonly used as it was 15 years ago, but no player in MLB (min. 1000 innings) has been a better defender than Varsho since 2023 by measure of UZR/150.
A former catcher, Varsho took shockingly well to center field and now stands as one of baseball’s premier defensive players. He’s far from a one-trick pony, however, even if his glove is his best asset. The second-generation big leaguer has been a perennial threat for 20-plus home runs, but his power output exploded in 2025. Varsho belted 20 round-trippers in only 271 turns at the plate. He chipped in three more homers in 81 postseason plate appearances. If he’d maintained that regular season pace over the same 562 plate appearances he averaged in the three preceding seasons, Varsho would’ve topped 40 home runs.
That type of power output was a new development, and whether he can sustain anything close to it will go a long way toward determining the extent of his earning potential this coming winter. If Varsho can somehow maintain anything close to last year’s breakout .310 ISO (slugging minus batting average), he could be in line for a nine-figure contract. If his power comes back down to Earth, things are less certain. Varsho is a good player, but he’s strikeout prone and typically has only an average walk rate. That’s led to a career .295 on-base percentage, which many teams will see as a glaring red flag.
There’s a wide range of outcomes here, but Varsho is going to reach free agency as a 30-year-old. He’ll turn 31 in July of year one on his new contract. A plus-plus center field defender with 20-homer pop should, at the very least, command three to four years in free agency. If he can sustain last year’s power output, Varsho can more credibly look for a contract of five years, which might be enough to push him into nine-figure territory. It’d be a big bet to place on someone with such paltry OBP skills, but 40-homer pop and a poor OBP netted Anthony Santander a $92.5MM deal (albeit with heavy deferrals). Varsho should be more appealing if he can stay healthy and deliver a career-best performance in the power department. He’ll be attached to a qualifying offer.
8. Tatsuya Imai, RHP, Astros
Imai’s market didn’t materialize the way many expected last offseason. Despite several predictions of a nine-figure contract — MLBTR included — the Japanese righty wound up settling for somewhat of a prove-it deal. He signed a three-year, $54MM guarantee with the Astros which included opt-outs after the first two seasons.
The Astros also paid a $9.975MM posting fee to NPB’s Seibu Lions. In a sense, Houston was willing to spend nearly $28MM for one year of Imai’s services. That’s a decent amount, but scouts had enough trepidations about Imai’s command and the quality of his secondary pitches that teams weren’t willing to make a long-term commitment.
That’d probably change if he pitches at a mid-rotation level as a rookie. Imai is the youngest starter of note in this class, as he won’t turn 28 until May. He has a plus fastball that averaged 95.6 mph in his MLB debut. It was a rocky start overall, as he walked four batters and couldn’t escape the third inning, but one poor outing doesn’t say much about the caliber of pitcher he’ll be moving forward. (Yoshinobu Yamamoto gave up five runs and lasted all of one inning in his own MLB debut.)
Imai probably won’t be in this spot on the next iteration of the free agent rankings. If he’s pitching well, he could jump into the top five based on the youth and velocity. If he struggles, he could drop off the list equally quickly. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer if he opts out of his current contract.
9. Randy Arozarena, LF, Mariners
Arozarena is an above-average everyday left fielder. He has been between 14 and 27 percent better than average at the plate in five straight seasons. He hit a career-high 27 homers while stealing 31 bags last year. Arozarena has gone at least 20-20 in each of the last five years and is a lifetime .250/.344/.433 hitter.
That blend of power and speed comes with some swing and miss. Arozarena has struck out a near-26% clip in his career and punched out in 26.9% of his trips last year. Defensive Runs Saved has graded him as a league average left fielder, while he’s generally a little worse than par by measure of Outs Above Average.
Arozarena will hit the market at age 32, likely with a qualifying offer attached. A high-AAV three-year deal seems likelier than four guaranteed seasons. His camp would probably try to beat the $66MM Teoscar Hernández contract if he has his usual year.
10. Seiya Suzuki, RF/DH, Cubs
Much of the Arozarena writeup also applies to Suzuki. The righty-hitting slugger owns a .269/.346/.472 slash over four big league seasons since signing out of NPB. He popped 32 homers with a .245/.326/.478 mark over 651 plate appearances last season.
Suzuki has plus power and takes a lot of walks. It comes with some strikeouts but not enough to prevent him from slotting into the middle of a lineup. Suzuki is probably a slightly better offensive player than Arozarena, but he faces more questions about his position fit and injury history.
The Cubs have used Suzuki frequently as a designated hitter over the past couple seasons. He has the speed and arm strength to play right field, where the public metrics have graded him as a slightly below-average defender. He missed time in 2023 and ’24 with oblique strains and began this year on the shelf with a minor PCL sprain in his right knee suffered during the World Baseball Classic.
Suzuki will be eligible for a qualifying offer. Like Arozarena and teammate Ian Happ, he’ll hit free agency as a 32-year-old corner outfielder. They’re all consistently good but not top-tier hitters, and clubs could reasonably order them in any way. They each have a shot at three years and more than $20MM per season. A fourth year for any of the three isn’t a complete stretch but also shouldn’t be considered likely. As MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows, the only free agent deals of four or more years for outfielders 32 or older in the past decade have been for Starling Marte (four years, $78MM) and Lorenzo Cain (five years, $80MM) — both of whom played center field in their platform seasons.
Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Bryan Abreu, David Bednar, Shane Bieber, Kris Bubic, Jack Flaherty, Zac Gallen, Kevin Gausman, Trent Grisham, Ian Happ, Shota Imanaga, Brandon Lowe, Casey Mize, Adrian Morejon, Nick Pivetta, Brady Singer, Gleyber Torres, Taylor Ward, Brandon Woodruff
Respective images courtesy of Imagn Images.
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Pirates Promote Konnor Griffin
April 3: Pittsburgh has formally selected Griffin’s contract, per a club announcement. Infielder Enmanuel Valdez was designated for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot.
April 2: The Pirates are calling up shortstop Konnor Griffin, the top prospect in all of baseball, to make his major league debut in tomorrow’s home opener, Pirates insider Jason Mackey reports. The team has confirmed Griffin’s promotion but has not yet formally selected his contract to the 40-man roster. They’ll need to do so and make corresponding 26-man and 40-man transactions prior to first pitch tomorrow.
Griffin was in the mix to break camp on Pittsburgh’s Opening Day roster but was reassigned to minor league camp late in spring training. The two parties have continued talks on what would be a record-setting contract extension — expected to be both the largest ever for a player with little to no major league service time (surpassing Colt Emerson‘s recent eight-year $95MM deal with the Mariners) and the Pirates’ franchise-record contract ($100MM for Bryan Reynolds).
It’s possible the Bucs simply wanted Griffin to make his debut at home, popping ticket sales throughout the weekend and further boosting excitement for fans after an uncharacteristically aggressive offseason. It’s also feasible that the two parties have become close enough on a long-term contract that the Pirates are making the move to promote him now and will announce an extension not long after his debut. The benefits in that scenario are straightforward. Players who sign extensions before making their MLB debut are not eligible to net draft picks for their club under MLB’s prospect promotion incentives; players who sign extensions after debuting remain PPI eligible. So long as any contract is finalized after Griffin has debuted, he’d net the Pirates an extra draft pick either by winning 2026 NL Rookie of the Year honors or with a top-three finish in MVP voting in 2026-28. (A player can only generate one total PPI pick for his team.)
Griffin is still three weeks away from his 20th birthday, but the 19-year-old phenom will get his chance to prove he’s ready for the big time. A physical beast already standing 6’3″ and weighing 225 pounds, Griffin is perhaps the most touted No. 1 overall prospect in recent memory. He draws plus (60) to plus-plus (70) grades on the 20-80 scale for all of his tools across the board. Griffin is an elite runner who scouts believe can stick at shortstop while hitting for both average and power.
Selected with the No. 9 overall pick in 2024, Griffin has played just one full professional season, and the results were borderline comical. He sprinted through the minors last year, climbing from Low-A to Double-A and absolutely raking at each of his three stops. Griffin totaled 563 plate appearances overall and slashed .333/.415/.527 with 21 home runs, 23 doubles, four triples and an eye-popping 65 stolen bases in 78 tries (83.3%). He walked at an 8.9% clip and struck out at a 21.7% rate.
Those numbers are staggering on their own. By measure of wRC+, Griffin was 65% better than an average hitter across those three levels. That ignores the context that the Mississippi native was among the youngest players — if not the youngest player — at all of those stops. Griffin hit just .171 in 46 spring plate appearances with the Pirates but still popped four home runs. He’s taken 21 plate appearances in Triple-A to begin this season and gone 7-for-16 with three doubles, three steals, five walks and only four strikeouts.
With the Pirates, Griffin will immediately step in as the team’s everyday shortstop. That’ll push Jared Triolo to a bench role for which he’s probably better suited. Triolo is an adept defender at multiple infield spots but carries just a .234/.319/.343 slash in 1054 plate appearances at the major league level. He can mix in at any of the four infield spots now, though he’s not going to supplant starters Spencer Horwitz (first base), Brandon Lowe (second base) or Nick Gonzales (third base) unless there’s an injury or a prolonged stretch of poor play from Gonzales as he acclimates to the hot corner.
Griffin steps into a big league lineup that has been substantially revamped since last season. The Pirates didn’t get the biggest fish they pursued this winter (e.g. Kyle Schwarber, Josh Naylor, Kazuma Okamoto), but they still brought in several established veteran bats who’ve unequivocally bolstered the offense. Lowe and outfielder Jake Mangum came over from the Rays alongside lefty reliever Mason Montgomery in a three-team trade sending young righty Mike Burrows to Houston. Ryan O’Hearn signed a two-year, $29MM in free agency. Marcell Ozuna later came aboard for a year and $12MM. Griffin now joins newcomers like Lowe, O’Hearn and Ozuna in the heart of a vastly improved lineup that Pirates hopes will better support the team’s excellent young pitching staff.
Service time considerations seemingly weren’t a factor in Griffin’s promotion. He’s still being called up in time to get a full year of major league service even without a Rookie of the Year win. His timelines for reaching arbitration and free agency would be rendered moot if Griffin eventually signs an extension, as many expect, but as things currently stand he’d be on track for arbitration eligibility following the 2028 season and free agency following the 2031 season, when he’d be just 25 years old (and going into his age-26 season). Griffin is so young that even a record-setting extension could still position him to reach the open market well ahead of his 30th birthday.
Griffin is the first of many young Pirates hitters who could impact the team this season. Pittsburgh also picked up touted outfield prospect Jhostynxon Garcia in a trade with the Red Sox, and he should get a look in the majors before too long. Infielder Termarr Johnson‘s stock has dipped in recent seasons, but he’s still just 21 years old and coming off a nice 2025 showing in Double-A. Catcher/first baseman Rafael Flores Jr., another trade acquisition (from the Yankees in last summer’s David Bednar swap) had a big season between Double-A and Triple-A last year and could hit his way into a bigger audition in 2026 as well.
For now, all eyes are on Griffin — both to witness the debut of one of the best prospects in recent memory and also to see whether he signs a franchise-altering extension that’d lock him in beyond his original six seasons of club control.