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Dodgers To Sign Kyle Tucker

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The two-time defending champions have done it again. The Dodgers are reportedly in agreement with Kyle Tucker on a four-year, $240MM contract. The deal includes $30MM in deferrals and will come with an approximate $57.1MM annual value for luxury tax purposes. Tucker, a client of Excel Sports Management, receives a $64MM signing bonus — all but $10MM of which is paid upfront — and can opt out after the second or third seasons. The team has not officially announced the signing, which is pending a physical, and will need to create a 40-man roster spot once it’s official.

Tucker, who turns 29 on Saturday, is the latest superstar addition to what was already MLB’s most feared offense. He slots into a lineup alongside Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernández and Tommy Edman. He’ll join Hernández and Andy Pages as the primary outfielders, with Edman capable of logging center field action when he’s not at second base.

Los Angeles has four outfield prospects who rank prominently near the top of their farm system. They reportedly wanted to avoid locking in long-term commitments as a result. They’ve accomplished that with arguably the biggest annual value in the sport’s history.

It’s a $60MM average on the surface. Without adjusting for deferrals, Tucker’s deal would be the second-highest AAV ever. Ohtani landed a $70MM AAV on his 10-year, $700MM guarantee, though the massive deferrals meant it had a “true” annual value closer to $46MM. One should therefore view the $51MM annual salary on Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765M deal as the more accurate record holder until tonight. Tucker’s adjusted AAV beats that by more than $6MM.

Although Tucker was this offseason’s top free agent, he’s a clear step below the likes of Aaron Judge, Ohtani and Soto of the previous three winters. Tucker has been a consistent All-Star who’s a little outside the top tier of superstars. The fifth overall pick by the Astros in 2015, he broke out in the shortened 2020 season after logging limited big league action in the two preceding years. He connected on 29 or 30 home runs in each of his first three full campaigns, improving his approach along the way.

Tucker was already a great hitter and seemed to be on his way to pulling closer to Judge, Soto and Ohtani with a monster start to the 2024 season. He was out to a .266/.395/.584 slash with more walks than strikeouts through the first two months. He fouled a ball off his right leg and was placed on the injured list with what the Astros initially termed a shin contusion. It turned out to be more serious, as subsequent testing revealed a fracture that kept him out for three months.

The four-time All-Star returned no worse for wear and had a fantastic September. The Astros nevertheless decided to field trade calls after the season. They were never going to meet Tucker’s asking price on an extension and felt they could cash him in for help elsewhere on the roster. They lined up a deal with the Cubs around the Winter Meetings that sent Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and prospect Cam Smith to Houston for Tucker’s final year of arbitration.

Tucker’s lone season in Chicago had its ups and downs. He got out to another blistering start, running a .284/.359/.524 slash with 12 homers through the first day of June. He jammed his right thumb diving into second on a stolen base attempt that day. He avoided the injured list, but subsequent testing revealed that he sustained a tiny fracture at the top of his hand between his ring finger and pinky.

The hand injury wasn’t viewed as a serious issue until Tucker’s performance began to suffer. That didn’t occur right away. His next few weeks were the finest of the season, in fact. Tucker slashed .311/.404/.578 across 25 games that month. Things went off the rails in July, as he batted .189/.325/.235 with just one home run over the next six weeks.

The existence of the hairline fracture wasn’t reported until the middle of August. Cubs officials acknowledged that Tucker had been injured in June but said that he was fully healthy by the time the injury was revealed publicly. Maybe the thumb became a retroactive explanation for what was actually a simple slump, though it’s possible he developed some subtle bad habits in June as he tried to mitigate the pain of hitting through the break. Manager Craig Counsell gave Tucker a three-game mental reset towards the end of August before plugging him back into the middle of the order.

Tucker appeared to be getting back into a groove when he hit another speed bump. He strained his left calf in early September and landed on the injured list, costing him three weeks in the season’s final month. He finished the regular season with a .266/.377/.464 slash line in a little under 600 trips to the plate. He hit .259 with one homer in eight postseason games as the Cubs advanced to the NL Division Series.

The uneven second half soured some Cubs fans on the Tucker acquisition. His overall numbers were in line with his career marks. The offense was 36 percentage points better than league average by wRC+. His lifetime .273/.358/.507 batting line is 38 points above par. Tucker has been in that range in four of the past five seasons. The only exception is his .289/.408/.585 showing over 78 games two years ago.

The ’24 season is probably an outlier, but the Dodgers should feel they’re adding one of the top 10-15 hitters in MLB. He doesn’t expand the strike zone and has a rare blend of plus contact skills and above-average power. Tucker has no issue hitting pitchers of either handedness. He doesn’t have the huge exit velocities of the sport’s premier sluggers, yet he’s a safe bet for 25-30 homers in a healthy season.

Tucker’s glove isn’t as strong at this stage of his career. He won a Gold Glove with Houston in 2022. His defensive grades and sprint speed have declined as he’s gotten into his late-20s. That presumably gave teams pause when considering a long-term investment. Tucker’s defense should remain serviceable in the short term. The Dodgers can comfortably plug him into right field and kick Hernández over to left if they don’t trade him.

The Cubs issued Tucker a qualifying offer but made little effort to retain him. The bidding seemingly came down to the Dodgers, Mets and Blue Jays. New York was similarly hesitant to make a long-term commitment, as they reportedly offered a four-year deal at $55MM per season. Toronto was seemingly willing to entertain a longer term at a lower annual value.

Tucker is L.A.’s second qualified free agent signing of the offseason. They added Edwin Díaz on a three-year, $69MM deal around the Winter Meetings. They surrendered their second- and fifth-round draft choices this summer, plus $1MM from their 2027 international bonus pool, to sign Díaz. They’ll forfeit their third- and sixth-round picks for Tucker. The Cubs receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round (currently slated to land 77th overall).

MLBTR had predicted an 11-year, $400MM deal for Tucker at the beginning of the offseason. It’s unclear if any team would have been willing to go to those lengths. He’s giving up some measure of long-term security in exchange for massive salaries over the next couple seasons and the chance to return to free agency at the tail end of his prime.

He’ll have the option of retesting the market before his age-31 and age-32 campaigns — and without being attached to draft compensation barring a change to the qualifying offer rules in the intervening CBA. A five- or six-year guarantee could be well within range at that point. He’ll collect a huge signing bonus, essentially shatter the record for average annual value, and join the team with the best chance to win the World Series in the interim.

While the specific salary breakdown hasn’t been reported, the Dodgers are reportedly paying $54MM of the signing bonus right away. RosterResource estimates their cash payroll obligations close to $428MM for the upcoming season. Tucker’s $57.1MM AAV will push their competitive balance tax projection north of $395MM.

They’re taxed at a 110% rate on spending above $304MM, so Tucker’s deal comes with a staggering $62.81MM tax hit in the first season. The Dodgers are essentially valuing Tucker’s 2026 season alone at $120MM. L.A. ended last season with a luxury tax payroll of $417MM, costing them another $169.4MM in taxes. Their tax bill alone was higher than the final payroll calculations of 12 teams. They’re trending towards a similar or potentially even greater amount in 2026 depending on what else they do this offseason and at the trade deadline. The aggressiveness continues as they aim for the first three-peat in MLB since the 1998-2000 Yankees.

Tucker’s deal is going to be the latest example for many fans and smaller-market owners who will argue for a salary cap in the upcoming round of collective bargaining negotiations. This level of spending also reaffirms why the MLB Players Association has steadfastly maintained that a cap is a non-starter. Next offseason’s CBA talks are expected to be similarly or even more contentious than those that froze the sport for 99 days during the 2022-23 lockout.

That’s not the concern of the Dodgers or their fans, who’ll be thrilled to add another star as they try to cement their dynastic run. They’ll be heavy favorites in the NL West, and it’s difficult to imagine a scenario in which this team doesn’t make the playoffs. A championship is far from guaranteed, however. The Jays were one swing away from beating them in Games 6 and 7 of last year’s World Series. An extra quarter-second on Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s dash home or another few feet on Ernie Clement’s fly ball in the bottom of the ninth would have flipped the outcome. L.A. ownership and the front office aren’t getting complacent.

After missing on Tucker, the Jays seem likely to reengage with Bo Bichette. Their longtime shortstop is now the top unsigned player. He has reportedly had a productive meeting with the Phillies, but the Jays and Bichette have long expressed mutual interest in a reunion. Bichette wouldn’t be a great fit for the Mets, but they could conceivably pivot to challenging the Yankees for Cody Bellinger. The Mets still don’t have a left fielder after swapping Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien. Their reported offer to Tucker demonstrates there’s plenty of room for short-term spending, but president of baseball operations David Stearns has shied away from lengthy commitments this winter.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Tucker was signing with the Dodgers. Jon Heyman of the New York Post had it as a short-term contract, while Robert Murray of FanSided was first on the four-year, $240MM guarantee. Murray reported the opt-out after the second season, and Passan had the third-year out. Heyman reported the $30MM in deferrals. Ari Alexander of Boston 7 News was first on the $57.1MM post-deferral AAV. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers had the signing bonus details.

Image courtesy of Christopher Hanewinckel, Imagn Images.

Mets Reportedly Offered Tucker Four Years, $220MM

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The Mets’ final offer to Kyle Tucker was for four years and $220MM, reports Jim Duquette of MLB Network on Sirius XM Radio. Jon Heyman of The New York Post adds that the offer included no deferred money and would have been slightly frontloaded, paying $120MM over the first two seasons. Will Sammon of The Athletic adds that it included a $75MM signing bonus and allowed Tucker to opt out after the second and third season.

It’s a very similar structure to the four-year, $240MM deal which Tucker accepted from the Dodgers. The opt-out provisions were identical. New York offered a higher signing bonus and the absence of deferred money, while the Dodgers went the extra $20MM on overall guarantee. The Mets’ offer would have come with a $55MM average annual value. Tucker’s agreement with L.A. will be calculated a little north of $57MM annually after adjusting the net present value to account for $30MM in deferrals.

Tucker and his camp opted for the higher guarantee and slightly stronger adjusted annual value. The four-time All-Star also joins a team that is coming off consecutive championships and will enter the 2026 season as the likeliest team to win it all again. The Mets certainly have the high-end talent to compete in the National League, but they’re coming off a second half collapse and have probably downgraded this offseason. They swapped Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien, signed Jorge Polanco to replace Pete Alonso, traded Jeff McNeil, and added Devin Williams and Luke Weaver to a bullpen that lost Edwin Díaz, Tyler Rogers and Ryan Helsley.

The Nimmo trade leaves the Mets in obvious need of a left fielder. Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests they’re likely to more seriously pursue Cody Bellinger at this point. That’d probably require them to reverse course on this winter’s aversion to long-term commitments. The Yankees reportedly have a five-year offer out to Bellinger in the $155-160MM range. That’s already a hefty annual value and a decent term, though his camp at the Boras Corporation is seemingly shooting for seven years.

Harrison Bader may be the only other everyday outfielder remaining in free agency. He’s a glove-first center fielder who had a middling season for the Mets just two years ago. They might not feel he’s a significant enough upgrade over Tyrone Taylor, and he’s certainly not an approximation for the middle-of-the-order bat they were trying to land in Tucker. They could be more aggressive on the trade front for someone like Jarren Duran or Lars Nootbaar. Getting the Red Sox to deal the former would likely require parting with one of their talented starting pitchers alongside immediate infield help (i.e. Brett Baty or Mark Vientos).

Rays, Angels, Reds Agree To Three-Team Trade Involving Josh Lowe, Gavin Lux

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While Kyle Tucker dominated baseball’s headlines, the Rays, Angels and Reds reportedly worked out a three-team trade. Outfielder Josh Lowe heads from Tampa Bay to the Angels. The Rays acquire utilityman Gavin Lux from Cincinnati and minor league pitcher Chris Clark from the Halos. The Reds get left-handed reliever Brock Burke from Los Angeles. The teams have not officially announced the deal.

It’s the second trade involving an everyday outfielder for the Angels this offseason. This time, the player is coming their way. Lowe will fill the outfield void left by Taylor Ward, who was shipped to Baltimore for Grayson Rodriguez. Tampa Bay entered the winter with a pair of Lowes, but the club will head into 2026 without either one. The versatile Lux can fill the void left by the Brandon Lowe deal. Cincinnati nets a veteran southpaw, while also getting off the $5.525MM contract Lux received in arbitration. Burke will make about half of that this season.

Lowe seemed like a fixture in Tampa Bay’s lineup after a massive 20/30 campaign in 2023. He posted a 135 wRC+ in his first season as a regular. Injuries would stifle his production the next two seasons. Oblique and hamstring issues delayed the start of his 2024 season. The oblique cost him time later that year, and then again at the beginning of this past season. He wasn’t productive when healthy this year, stumbling to a career-worst 79 wRC+ behind a .220/.283/.366 batting line. Lowe hit .139 with a 35.3% strikeout rate in his final month with the team.

With Ward gone and Mike Trout penciled in at DH, the Angels had limited options in the outfield prior to the move. Lowe will now slot in alongside Jo Adell and Jorge Soler. The Rays shielded him from lefties for much of his time there, and with good reason. Lowe has a .504 OPS and a 33% strikeout rate in his limited work against same-handed pitching (288 plate appearances). He could be ticketed for regular at-bats given the lack of a platoon partner. The right-handed bench outfielder is currently Bryce Teodosio, a glove-first option. Trout only made 22 starts in the outfield last season, but that could change considering the alternatives.

A former first-round pick, Lowe is a plus runner who has slightly above-average bat speed. The aforementioned 20-30 season hints at his physical upside, but the durability and strikeout concerns kept him from establishing himself as a cornerstone player. He has only once reached 500 plate appearances in a season.

Lowe played a little bit of center field early in his career. The vast majority of his experience has come in right, and he has only logged seven innings up the middle over the past two seasons. He’d be stretched in center defensively, yet that’s also true of Trout and Adell. The Halos will probably need to live with rough up-the-middle defense from Lowe or Adell to get a better bat than Teodosio’s in the lineup, at least until 20-year-old center field prospect Nelson Rada arrives.

Tampa Bay and Lowe settled on a $2.6MM deal to avoid arbitration this year. It was his first trip through the process. He’s controlled for three seasons and still has a minor league option remaining, so the Halos could send him down without putting him on waivers. The Angels’ estimated payroll on RosterResource still sits at about $30MM below last year’s mark.

The Reds acquired Lux last offseason in a trade with the Dodgers. He delivered league-average results at the plate in his lone season in Cincinnati, hitting .269/.350/.374 with five homers over a career-high 503 plate appearances. Lux made most of his appearances in left field, while also spending time at second base and third base. He was also used frequently as a pinch hitter.

Lux was one of Cincinnati’s more reliable on-base hitters, but he has never developed into much of a power threat. The former top prospect hasn’t hit more than 10 homers in any of his five-plus MLB seasons. Last winter’s change of scenery trade and move to Great American Ball Park didn’t really move the needle. The left-handed hitter has a solid offensive floor but probably doesn’t have much untapped upside as he enters his age-28 season.

The bigger drawback is that Lux has never settled into a clear positional home. He has moved around less because he’s an incredibly versatile and more due to his defensive struggles at various positions. His throwing accuracy has been an intermittent issue on the infield, even at second base. Defensive metrics haven’t looked favorably upon his work in the corner outfield.

The Rays had a clear gap at second base after the (first) Lowe trade. The internal choices were uninspiring, though Richie Palacios has some similarities as a left-handed hitter whose came is built around his on-base skills. Lux should step into a near-everyday role, with Tampa Bay’s typical platoon shenanigans likely capping his reps against left-handed pitching. He could also get some rotational corner outfield work, replacing Josh Lowe as a lefty bat in an outfield that remains without much certainty. Lux is a one-year addition who’ll reach free agency for the first time next winter.

The Angels claimed Burke, coincidentally a former Rays’ draftee, off waivers from the Rangers in August 2024. His one-and-a-half years with the club represented one of the better stretches of his big league career. Burke put together a 3.40 ERA across 90 appearances as an Angel. He pitched in a career-high 69 games last year. The 29-year-old is in his final year of arbitration and will hit free agency next season.

Burke was able to tap into more velocity after joining the Angels. He sat 94-95 mph after transitioning from the rotation to the bullpen with the Rangers. In L.A., Burke bumped his heater to 96 mph. He also upped his slider usage with the club. Burke had a career-high 30.5% strikeout rate with the Angels in 2024. That number fell by more than 10 points in 2025, but he counteracted it with a career-best 53.3% ground-ball rate. Burke doesn’t have huge platoon splits and isn’t a situational specialist so much as a generally steady arm whom Terry Francona can use in the middle innings.

Cincinnati relied on Taylor Rogers as its primary lefty last season, until he was sent to the Cubs at the deadline. The Reds have added Burke and Caleb Ferguson to fill the role for 2026. They also tendered a contract to the out-of-options Sam Moll, so it seems they’ll begin the season with three veteran lefties in the relief corps.

Clark was a fifth-round pick by the Angels in 2023. He posted a 4.73 ERA across 28 minor league appearances this past season. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs praised Clark’s developing changeup and loose arm action heading into the 2025 campaign. The righty uses a sinker and sweeper as his two main pitches. A changeup would fit in nicely. The 24-year-old Clark topped out at Double-A last year. He made just one start at the level and will likely be back there to open the 2026 season.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first on the trade. Respective images via Chris Tilley, Gary A. Vasquez of Imagn Images.

Red Sox To Sign Ranger Suárez

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January 15: The contract includes a mutual option for 2031, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. That doesn’t change much about the deal beyond allowing the Red Sox to kick some of the money back to the end of the 2030 season in the form of an option buyout.

January 14: The Red Sox are going to add left-hander Ranger Suárez to their already-strong rotation. It is reportedly a five-year deal worth $130MM for the Boras Corporation client. It appears to be fairly straightforward, reportedly not containing any deferrals, opt-outs or no-trade protection. The Sox have a full 40-man and will need to make a corresponding move to make this official.

The Sox came into the offseason with a rotation headlined by Garrett Crochet, followed by a notable gap to their other starters. They had a lot of options for back-end types and depth but were looking to bolster the front end.

“Because of the depth that we’ve built up over the last couple of years, we feel pretty good about just overall starting pitching, maybe No. 3-ish through No. 10-ish,” was how chief baseball officer Craig Breslow framed the situation in November. “And that’s not to take away from guys who are certainly capable of doing more, and more just to say I don’t think we’re going to spend a ton of time trying to add a No. 4, No. 5 starter.”

Since then, Breslow has made a couple of moves to alter that rotation group. He acquired Sonny Gray from the Cardinals and Johan Oviedo from the Pirates. They subtracted a bit from the depth by including Richard Fitts in the Gray deal and Hunter Dobbins in the Willson Contreras swap.

Gray is arguably the kind of #2 starter the club was looking for. His 4.28 earned run average in 2025 has some Boston fans disputing that assessment but he has a 3.63 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 44.6% ground ball rate in 531 innings dating back to the start of 2023. FanGraphs ranks him fifth in wins above replacement among pitchers in that time, behind only Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb and Cristopher Sánchez.

Since the Gray deal, Boston has seemingly been more focused on upgrading its lineup and position player mix, targeting infielders like Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Ketel Marte, Brendan Donovan and Isaac Paredes.

The club has hit a bit of a wall there. Bregman has signed with the Cubs. The Diamondbacks have reportedly taken Marte off the market. The Astros don’t seem to have much interest in moving Paredes. Bichette is still a free agent but it’s unclear if the Sox would be willing to go to the lengths necessary to sign him. Donovan should still be available but the Sox haven’t met their asking price, at least not yet.

In the wake of Bregman’s agreement with Chicago, Rob Bradford of WEEI as well as Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive suggested Boston could switch their focus to starting pitching. Earlier today, Bradford suggested the club was getting more aggressive on the trade market but the Sox have gone to free agency instead.

The contract is notable on a few fronts. For one, Breslow has generally avoided long-term free agent deals since becoming Boston’s chief baseball officer. Coming into today, his longest deal for a free agent was to give Bregman three years, which turned into a one-year relationship when Bregman opted out. The Sox came into today as the only one of the 30 major league clubs to not have signed a free agent this winter. This deal will be a new benchmark for Breslow in terms of years and guarantee given to a free agent, as well as erasing Boston’s status as the only team not to spend money on free agency this offseason.

It’s also a notable deal for Suárez in a few different ways. For one thing, he was a fairly low-profile international signing of the Phillies at the start of his professional career, securing a bonus of just $25K. As he has become a major leaguer, he has pushed his salary up in arbitration with his strong results but his lack of volume has limited him. He just made $8.8MM in his final year of arbitration, relatively modest by modern standards, but will now be securing a much bigger payday than ever before.

Speaking of his strong results but limited overall workload, that impacted the view of his market coming into this winter. Broadly speaking, Suárez has been really good on a rate basis but he doesn’t throw especially hard and has dealt with some nagging injuries, impacting the overall quantity of his contributions.

He first became a full-time starter for the Phillies in 2022 and held a rotation job for four years. Over that span, he logged 588 1/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA. His 21.9% strikeout rate was around league average. His 7.5% walk rate was solid and his 50.8% ground ball rate quite good. He also earned a reputation as a cold-blooded playoff contributor, giving the Phils 42 2/3 postseason innings with a 1.48 ERA.

But his velocity has never been huge and has been trending down. His four-seam fastball averaged a bit over 93 miles per hour in 2022 and 2023. That dropped to 91.8 mph in 2024 and 91.3 mph last year. His primary pitch, his sinker, averaged just 90.1 mph last year.

He also still hasn’t really pitched a full big league season. He hasn’t had any major injury concerns but has had scattered issues over the years, with lower back problems being a recurring thorn. Thanks to those sporadic health problems, he’s never hit the 30-start mark or the 160-inning plateau in any season as a big leaguer.

Given his clear skills but also his question marks, MLBTR predicted Suárez for a five-year, $115MM deal at the beginning of the offseason, $23MM in terms of average annual value. The top of the free agent starting pitching market has been slow to move this winter. Dylan Cease and the Blue Jays quickly found each other but it’s been a bit tepid otherwise. Prior to this, no other starter apart from Cease signed a deal longer than than three years or for more than $75MM. Tatsuya Imai settled for three years and $54MM, significantly below the expectations from the outset of the offseason.

As Suárez and Framber Valdez lingered unsigned into the new year, it was fair to wonder if they would meet the initial expectations. But with this deal, Suárez has not only met MLBTR’s prediction but has surpassed it. He has matched the length with an extra $3MM in terms of average annual value, getting to $26MM AAV.

Despite some concerns with Suárez, the move gives Boston one of the best rotations in baseball, if not the very best. Crochet is the clear ace. Suárez and Gray will have two spots behind him, followed by Brayan Bello. Oviedo seems to be in a decent position to land the #5 spot but he would also have competition from guys like Patrick Sandoval and Kutter Crawford. It’s possible Tanner Houck jumps into the mix late in the year, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in August.

Prospects Connelly Early and Payton Tolle made big league debuts late in 2025 and could push for jobs as well. Kyle Harrison, David Sandlin, Shane Drohan and Tyler Uberstine are also on the 40-man roster. Those latter six names all have options and either have limited big league experience or none at all, so they could all be sent to the minors as depth. Crawford has a decent amount of big league experience but is still optionable, so it’s possible for him to be squeezed to Worcester as well.

But it also seems fair to wonder if this Suárez deal sets the Red Sox up to trade some starting pitching for the infield upgrade they didn’t get when Bregman slipped through their fingers. They have been connected to Donovan many times and have already lined up a few trades with Chaim Bloom, Boston’s former chief baseball officer who is now president of baseball operations with the Cardinals.

Donovan isn’t the only option out there. The Sox were also connected to Marte a bunch this winter. The Diamondbacks have reportedly taken him off the market but perhaps there’s some scenario where Breslow puts some big prospect names on the table and makes them consider it. Nico Hoerner’s name has also come up in some trade rumors after the Cubs signing Bregman. If the Phillies can sign Bichette, they are expected to trade Alec Bohm or Bryson Stott to make room. Jake Cronenworth of the Padres has been in a few rumors.

All those players would have varying level of trade value due to their different salaries and years of control, but the same is also true of Boston’s pitchers. Early and Tolle are big prospects and would only be given up for a big return. Sandoval has one year left on his contract and has been injured for most of the past two years, so his trade value is far more marginal. Bello has even been in some rumors and he would be somewhere in between, as he is owed $50.5MM over the next four years and has been more okay than great.

Since it feels likely that at least one more significant move is coming, the club’s financial picture is probably still in flux. For now, RosterResource pegs the club’s payroll at $216MM with a competitive balance tax calculation of $266MM. That’s assuming the Suárez deal is broken down evenly at $26MM per year, as the actual breakdown hasn’t been publicly reported yet. If it’s front-loaded or back-loaded, that could alter the actual payroll. However, the CBT is calculated based on a player’s AAV, so that won’t change.

The Sox avoided the tax in 2023 and 2024. They went narrowly over the line in 2025, paying a tax bill of just $1.5MM. That will make them second-time payors in 2026, giving them a base tax rate of 30% for going over the first threshold of $244MM. The second threshold is $264MM and the Sox would pay a 42% on further spending above that line. If they go beyond $284MM, the tax rate would jump to 75% for spending above that line and their top pick in the 2027 draft would be dropped by ten spots.

Speaking of the draft, the Sox are going to be impacted by this Suárez signing in 2026. Suárez rejected a qualifying offer from the Phillies, meaning the Sox are subject to the associated penalties for signing him. Since the Sox paid the tax last year, they have to forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks this summer, in addition to losing $1MM in international bonus pool space. The Phillies will receive a compensation pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft.

Prior to this deal with the Red Sox, Suárez was connected to the Orioles, Astros and Mets, though other clubs presumably had interest even if they weren’t connected to him in public reports. For the teams who missed out on Suárez, there are still some options they can turn to, despite the relatively late stage of the offseason.

Valdez and Zac Gallen are the top two free agents, with Chris Bassitt, Justin Verlander, Lucas Giolito and others still unsigned. The trade market still has some potential options, including MacKenzie Gore and Freddy Peralta. Valdez has to be pleased with Suárez getting a deal beyond expectations even at this part of the calendar. They are fairly similar pitchers as groundballers. Valdez is a bit older but has the more impressive track record overall.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post. first reported that the Sox would be signing Suárez. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the length and guarantee, as well as the lack of deferrals and opt-outs. Chris Cotillo of MassLive first reported the lack of a no-trade clause. Photos courtesy of Bill Streicher, Brad Penner, Imagn Images

Mariners Designate Samad Taylor For Assignment

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The Mariners designated utilityman Samad Taylor for assignment. That creates a 40-man roster spot for reliever Yosver Zulueta, whose previously reported acquisition from Cincinnati is official.

Taylor was on Seattle’s 40-man roster for the majority of last season. He didn’t get much of a big league opportunity, only stepping to the plate nine times over four games. The M’s otherwise kept him on optional assignment to Triple-A Tacoma. Taylor had an excellent season in the Pacific Coast League, batting .296/.378/.461 with 27 doubles, seven triples and 17 home runs across 657 plate appearances. He posted better than average walk and strikeout rates while stealing 44 bases in 54 attempts.

The right-handed hitting Taylor has consistently produced against minor league pitching. He owns a .281/.373/.432 slash line in nearly 2000 Triple-A plate appearances over four seasons. Teams have remained skeptical about his ability to carry that over against big league pitching. Taylor has minimal power, as he’s listed at 5’8″ and 160 pounds.

Despite last year’s decent home run total, his exit velocities in Triple-A have been well below average. He has used his smaller strike zone to his advantage and worked a lot of walks against minor league pitchers. That could be difficult to maintain against MLB arms, who have better command and should be more equipped to challenge Taylor within the zone.

Seattle successfully ran Taylor through waivers unclaimed last offseason. That’d give him the right to elect free agency if he clears this time around. Taylor’s minor league production and ability to play second base and anywhere in the outfield could get him a look on the waiver wire. He’s now out of minor league options, however, so a claiming team would need to carry him on the MLB roster or send him back to DFA limbo.

Mariners Acquire Yosver Zulueta

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The Mariners and Reds announced a trade sending reliever Yosver Zulueta to Seattle for minor league pitcher Dusty Revis. Zulueta was just designated for assignment by Cincinnati a few hours ago when they made their Pierce Johnson signing official. Seattle designated infielder Samad Taylor for assignment in a corresponding move.

Zulueta, who turns 28 next week, has a limited major league track record. He has thrown 23 2/3 innings for the Reds over the past two seasons. In that time, he has allowed 5.32 earned runs per nine frames. His 10.9% walk rate is on the high side but his 24.8% strikeout rate and 54% ground ball rate are both strong figures.

Despite the short résumé, the stuff is intriguing. His four-seamer and sinker have both averaged in the upper 90s during his time as a big leaguer. He has also thrown a slider and changeup in the upper 80s. His minor league numbers are also enticing, though with similar control issues as his time in the majors. At Triple-A last year, he tossed 60 1/3 innings with a 3.28 ERA, 31.2% strikeout rate and 56.5% ground ball rate but a 12.8% walk rate.

Zulueta first got a 40-man spot from the Blue Jays in November of 2022. He has mostly been on optional assignment in the three seasons since then, with a waiver claim by Cincinnati along the way.

That would normally position him to be out of options but he may qualify for a fourth option. A player can qualify for a fourth option if he doesn’t have five “full” seasons as a professional, with a “full” season usually consisting of 90 days on an active roster. Zulueta made his professional debut in 2021 but only made one appearance in Single-A that year, so he may only have four “full” seasons. That’s likely why his FanGraphs page lists him as still having an option.

The Mariners have a pretty good reputation of getting good results from unheralded relievers. That doesn’t mean they succeed with every guy they pick up but Zulueta clearly has a powerful arm, so perhaps Seattle can figure out a way to make good use of it. If things go well, Zulueta has less than a year of service time and can be affordably controlled into the foreseeable future.

Cincinnati takes a flier on Revis, whom Seattle drafted in the 11th round last summer. The 6’2″ righty turned in a 4.04 ERA across 15 starts during his final season at Western Carolina University. He didn’t pitch after the draft. Josh Kirshenbaum of MLB Pipeline wrote on draft day that he held his fastball velocity in the mid-90s while working out of the Catamounts rotation.

Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com first reported that Zulueta was being traded to Seattle. Photo courtesy of Katie Stratman, Imagn Images

Diamondbacks Sign Taylor Clarke

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The Diamondbacks announced they’ve signed reliever Taylor Clarke to a one-year contract. They designated right-hander Gus Varland for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster. It’s a $1.55MM guarantee, reports Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic. The deal includes incentives that could push the Ballengee Group client’s earnings above $2MM.

Clarke, 33 in May, should be a familiar name to Arizona fans. The Snakes selected him out of the College of Charleston as a third-round pick in 2015. He debuted in a swing role four years later and spent parts of three seasons with the MLB club. Clarke moved almost permanently to the bullpen by the shortened season and has been a full-time reliever for most of the last half-decade. He got some work as a starter with Milwaukee’s Triple-A team in 2024 but has worked from the bullpen as a big leaguer.

Arizona non-tendered Clarke after he posted a near-5.00 earned run average during the 2021 season. He landed a big league deal with the Royals a couple weeks later and spent the next two seasons in the Kansas City bullpen. Clarke posted decent strikeout and walk numbers but was plagued by an elevated average on balls in play, leading to a combined 5.08 ERA over those two seasons. The Royals traded him to Milwaukee, who ran him through waivers and kept him in Triple-A.

The Royals liked Clarke enough to bring him back on a minor league deal last offseason. They called him up by the beginning of May and were rewarded with the best season of his career. The 6’4″ righty tossed 55 1/3 innings of 3.25 ERA ball. His 21.4% strikeout rate and 10.1% swinging strike percentage were each a little worse than average. Clarke was the beneficiary of an unsustainably low .208 BABIP against him, but he limited his walks to an excellent 4.4% clip and pitched particularly well in the second half.

It came as a surprise that Kansas City nevertheless opted not to tender him an arbitration contract that would likely have landed in the $2MM range. That set the stage for a reversal of the sequence from the 2021-22 offseason. Clarke follows up a non-tender from K.C. by signing a major league deal with Arizona.

Clarke has over five years of service time, meaning he cannot be sent to the minors without his consent. He’s locked into the Opening Day bullpen alongside Ryan Thompson and Kevin Ginkel. The Diamondbacks don’t have any elite back-end arms to cover leverage situations while A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez are injured. Clarke raises the floor in the middle innings but doesn’t have much high-leverage experience. The back of the bullpen remains arguably the biggest weakness as Arizona tries to compete for a playoff spot.

Varland, the older brother of Toronto righty Louis Varland, was a waiver claim from the White Sox in August. The 29-year-old righty was on the minor league injured list at the time due to a season-ending lat strain. He held a spot on Arizona’s 40-man roster for a few months but hasn’t thrown a pitch for the organization. The former 14th-round pick has a 4.82 ERA in 42 big league appearances between 2023-24. Varland divided that time between Milwaukee, the Dodgers, and the White Sox.

Arizona has five days to trade Varland or put him on waivers. He has never been outrighted and doesn’t have three years of big league service, so he’d remain in the organization if they get him through waivers unclaimed.

Image courtesy of Denny Medley, Imagn Images.

Cubs Could Use Matt Shaw In Outfield

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The Cubs made a big addition to their infield this week by signing Alex Bregman to a five-year deal. That has led to speculation about the club then pivoting to a trade of another infielder, such as Nico Hoerner or Matt Shaw. At Bregman’s introductory press conference today, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer admitted that they have received more calls from other clubs about Hoerner and Shaw this week, per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. But that doesn’t mean they plan to trade either and Hoyer said Shaw could spend some time in the outfield this year, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN, which would help him get into the lineup more.

The Cubs came into the winter with a projected infield alignment of Shaw at third, Dansby Swanson at short, Hoerner at second and Michael Busch at first. Adding Bregman at third blocks Shaw from a regular role. He has primarily been a third baseman but has dabbled in the middle infield as well. That has contributed somewhat to the Hoerner trade speculation. Since Hoerner is an impending free agent, there’s an argument for flipping him now and putting Shaw at second base.

But Hoerner is far more established as a useful big leaguer than Shaw. The latter just made his debut last year and has 126 big league games under his belt. In that time, he produced a subpar batting line of .226/.295/.394, leading to a 93 wRC+. He was better in the second half, with a .258/.317/.522 line and 130 wRC+, but in a fairly small sample of 205 plate appearances.

Hoerner, on the other hand, has been a regular for years. He played in at least 135 games in each of the past four campaigns. He doesn’t have huge power but is tough to strike out and has consistently been an above-average hitter with that contact approach. He also has excellent defense and speed. The combination has been worth at least 3.9 wins above replacement for four straight years, per FanGraphs.

Subtracting Hoerner and subbing in Shaw would run the risk of noticeably downgrading the team in 2026, a year in which the Cubs clearly want to compete. They just made the postseason in 2025 and have been aggressively adding to the club this winter via their Bregman signing and the Edward Cabrera trade.

If some team gives them a strong offer, they would naturally have to consider the pros and cons. Just in the past week, the Giants, Mariners and Yankees have been connected to Hoerner in rumors. But it also appears the club could be leaning towards using Shaw in a utility capacity this year. If Hoerner is not extended, he would depart after 2026, opening up second base for Shaw to have a more regular role.

Shaw doesn’t have outfield experience as a professional. Since being selected 13th overall in 2023, he has played third base and the two middle infield spots in the minors. In the big leagues last year, he mostly played third with just six innings at the keystone and none at shortstop. He did play a bit of outfield in the early parts of his collegiate career but was mostly kept in the middle infield as time went on.

During his major league time last year, Shaw’s sprint speed was ranked in the 90th percentile of major leaguers. That athleticism gives him a nice head-start in terms of being a viable outfielder but the Cubs will presumably want to get him reps in spring if they plan to follow through on using Shaw as a super utility guy.

Teams love that kind of versatility and there could be clear benefits for the Cubs in terms of playing matchups. Shaw hits from the right side and had noticeable platoon splits in his first big league season. He had a .218/.287/.362 line and 82 wRC+ against righties but a .250/.318/.490 line and 125 wRC+ with the platoon advantage.

The Cubs project to have a few lefty bats in their regular lineup, with Pete Crow-Armstrong in center, Busch at first base and Moisés Ballesteros likely doing some catching and serving as the designated hitter. They all have fared better against righties in their respective careers, with Crow-Armstrong having particular struggles against southpaws. Ian Happ is also a switch-hitter who has had more success as a lefty bat in his career.

There’s also the fact that Seiya Suzuki could spend more time in the outfield with the way the roster is currently constructed. He was largely the designated hitter last year but the departure of Kyle Tucker means he is slated to take more time on the grass. Outs Above Average has ranked Suzuki as six outs below par in his career and Defensive Runs Saved has put him at negative five. Even if he gets a lot of starts, the Cubs could look to replace him defensively late in games. Having another viable outfielder on the roster naturally helps there.

This is all contingent on everyone being healthy, as one injury quickly changes the whole picture, but that also underscores the importance of having some versatility. If Shaw is able to viably play the outfield, then it makes it easier to rotate players around based on health and matchups. Currently, the bench projects to have backup catcher Miguel Amaya and first baseman Tyler Austin alongside Shaw and outfielder Justin Dean. The latter is a strong defender and baserunner but has bigger questions about his bat. He is also still optionable.

Getting into the lineup regularly would also be good for Shaw from a developmental perspective. As mentioned, he only just made his major league debut last year. He was subpar at the plate overall but seemingly got better as the season progressed. Going into a part-time role and missing reps wouldn’t be ideal for the long term, especially if he’s to take over for Hoerner at second base a year from now. Finding a way for him to take 400 to 600 plate appearances, even though he doesn’t have a clear position, would be good for both him and the club.

Photo courtesy of Michael McLoone, Imagn Images

Yankees Re-Sign Paul Blackburn

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January 15th, 2026: The Yankees officially announced Blackburn’s signing today.

December 21st, 2025: The Yankees are expected to re-sign right-hander Paul Blackburn, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. It’s a one-year deal worth $2MM. The Boras Corporation client can earn an additional $500K through incentives: $100K for 80, 90, 100, 110 and 120 innings pitched.

Blackburn landed with the Yankees after getting released by the Mets in August. He made eight appearances with the club, recording a 5.28 ERA with more than a strikeout per inning. Blackburn had been a starter for the majority of his career, but worked strictly as a reliever with the Yankees. The now 32-year-old had a miserable debut with the team, allowing seven earned runs in 3 1/3 innings to begin his time in the Bronx. He bounced back from there, holding opponents to just two earned runs over his next 12 innings.

Blackburn spent the first seven years of his big-league career with the Athletics. He offered modest results as a back-of-the-rotation depth piece, with stretches of above-average performance. The Mets picked up Blackburn in a minor trade at the 2024 deadline. He struggled through five starts with the team to close that season. Blackburn dealt with spine and knee injuries heading into the 2025 campaign. He didn’t appear in a game until June, and then missed another six weeks with a shoulder issue. Blackburn tossed five scoreless innings in his first outing of the season. He then gave up at least three runs in each of the next five appearances.

While Blackburn was solely a reliever for the Yankees, the contract incentives suggest there might be room for a rotation spot. He gets $100K if he reaches 80 innings, and an additional $100K for each 10-inning milestone he hits up through 120 innings. New York has a relatively soft rotation behind Max Fried and Cam Schlittler. Luis Gil, Will Warren, and Ryan Yarbrough will likely fill out the rest of the staff. Carlos Rodon, Gerrit Cole, and Clarke Schmidt are currently on the mend.

Takahiro Norimoto To Stay In NPB, Sign With Yomiuri Giants

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Right-hander Takahiro Norimoto has decided to remain in Japan and will sign with the Yomiuri Giants, according to a report from Sports Hochi in Japan. The 35-year-old had been weighing an offer from a major league club but will instead sign a multi-year deal with the Giants.

Norimoto has spent his entire 13-year career with the Rakuten Golden Eagles. After a long run in their rotation, he moved to the bullpen and has ascended to their closer role in recent seasons. The right-hander posted a 3.02 ERA with 16 saves, four holds and only two blown opportunities last year. He’s fanned nearly 24% of opponents in his career, but Norimoto’s strikeout rate dropped to 17.2% in 2025 and his fastball velocity took a dip as well, sitting around 92 mph this past year (down from his days of sitting 94-95 and climbing as high as 97-98 mph).

It’s not clear which MLB club had put forth an offer to Norimoto, nor is it clear whether it was even a guaranteed pact. It’s a moot point now, as Norimoto will pitch at least his age-35 and age-36 seasons out of the Giants’ bullpen in Japan. While it’s feasible that he could still make a late-career move to North American ball, that’s hard to envision unless Norimoto finds a way to miss more bats while working with what appears to be diminishing velocity.

In 1838 career NPB innings, Norimoto has pitched to a 3.12 ERA. He sports a 120-99 record, 48 saves, four holds, a 23.7% strikeout rate and a 6.3% walk rate in Japan’s top league. He led NPB in strikeouts for five consecutive seasons from 2014-18, whiffing 1044 batters in 958 2/3 innings (26.5 K%) during that time.

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