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Reds Sign Will Banfield, Hagen Danner To Minor League Deals

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The Reds announced a number of non-roster invitees to spring training today. In addition to some names already covered by MLBTR, catcher Will Banfield and right-hander Hagen Danner are on the list. That indicates the Reds have signed those players to minor league deals.

Banfield, 26, just got to make his major league debut with the Reds last year. He got into seven games and made ten plate appearances. He struck out six times and grounded into a double play but also collected one hit, a single. The Reds non-tendered him in November, which sent him to waivers without him being exposed to waivers. They have now brought him back into the organization in a non-roster capacity.

He has never been a huge hitter, though he did launch 23 home runs at the Double-A level in 2023. He was once a notable prospect in the Marlins’ system thanks mostly to his strong defensive reputation.

The Reds have a catching group consisting of Tyler Stephenson, Jose Trevino and Ben Rortvedt. No one in that group can be optioned to the minors, so the Reds will need to have a three-catcher setup or bump someone off the roster, unless an injury changes the picture. However it plays out, Banfield gives the club a glove-first depth catcher. If he’s later added to the roster, he still has options.

Danner, 27, still has a limited track record. He was drafted by the Blue Jays as a catcher but stalled out and got moved to the mound. He got to make his major league debut with Toronto in 2023 but tossed just a third of an inning. In the minors, he has generally had decent strikeout and walks rates. From 2021 to 2024, he tossed 114 minor league innings with a flat earned run average of 3.00. He struck out 28.8% of batters faced with an 8.3% walk rate.

The Jays bumped him off the 40-man going into the 2025 season. The Mariners claimed him off waivers and then later outrighted him. He spent last year at Triple-A Tacoma, in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He logged 56 1/3 innings for that club with a 5.59 ERA, 21.4% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. He didn’t get his roster spot back by the end of the year and became a free agent. For the Reds, there’s no harm in a non-roster pact to add some more depth. If Danner gets a roster spot at some point, he is out of options.

Photo courtesy of Katie Stratman, Imagn Images

Cardinals Sign Ryne Stanek

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January 13: Bloom announced to the media today that the Stanek deal is official. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat was among those to pass it along. The Cards opened a 40-man spot by trading Nolan Arenado to the Diamondbacks earlier today.

January 10: Stanek will earn $3.5MM in 2026, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deal also includes a $6MM club option for 2027.

January 9: The Cardinals are in agreement with free agent reliever Ryne Stanek, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Chris Cotillo of MassLive first reported that St. Louis was pursuing the hard-throwing righty. The Cardinals will need to open a 40-man roster spot once the MVP Sports Group client completes a physical.

Stanek gets a change of scenery after an inconsistent year and a half with the Mets. New York acquired him from the Mariners at the 2024 trade deadline. While he allowed 11 runs in 16 1/3 regular season innings down the stretch, Stanek’s plus strikeout rate and strong postseason work led the Mets to bring him back on a $4.5MM free agent deal.

That didn’t pan out, as the 34-year-old had an up-and-down season. Stanek had strong run prevention marks in May and July but was knocked around in the other four months. He finished with a 5.30 earned run average across 56 innings. ERA estimators were only slightly more bullish as Stanek’s strikeout and walk rates each went in the wrong direction.

A 22.7% strikeout rate was narrowly the lowest of his nine-year career. Stanek had fanned nearly 28% of opposing hitters one season earlier. It’s crucial that he miss bats because command has never been a strong suit. Stanek has walked at least 10% of batters faced in all but one year, including a 12.5% mark last season.

The Cardinals are taking what should be a low-cost bet that he’ll strike out more batters in 2026. Stanek still has the stuff to do that. He averaged 98.5 MPH on his heater, a top 15 mark in MLB. He backs that up with a plus slider and mixes in a splitter and sweeper as his third and fourth offerings. Stanek still missed bats at a slightly above-average rate on a per pitch basis.

St. Louis doesn’t have a ton of experienced arms in the late innings. Southpaw JoJo Romero had been their only reliever with even two years of MLB service. There’s a decent chance he’s traded before Opening Day. The Cardinals were looking for a veteran arm who can pitch in the back half of the bullpen. Stanek fits best in middle relief but could be in the high-leverage mix, perhaps even as a closer, on a rebuilding club. He’s a known commodity to president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, who was in the Rays front office when Tampa Bay drafted him in the first round in 2013.

There’s also a geographic tie. Stanek was born in St. Louis and went to high school not far outside Missouri in Stilwell, Kansas. There’s a decent chance he’ll be traded midseason if he’s pitching well, but he’ll get a chance to play for his hometown club for at least a few months.

Image courtesy of Gregory Fisher, Imagn Images.

Red Sox Rumors: Suarez, Bichette, Valdez, Rotation

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The Red Sox are still reeling from Alex Bregman’s departure for the Cubs but have minimal time to lick their wounds. The free agent and trade markets have begun to pick up some steam, and whatever Boston’s pivot from losing Bregman will be, it’ll need to come together before terribly long. The Bregman deal and the trade of Nolan Arenado from St. Louis to Arizona both figure to get the ball rolling with regard to the infield market. There are also indications that the market for top free agent Kyle Tucker is gaining steam as well. Even though Tucker understandably isn’t a target for a Red Sox team that’s deep in lefty-swinging outfielders, reports of him nearing a decision only give further credence to the idea that the market will accelerate with pitchers and catchers just a month from reporting to spring training.

It’s not entirely clear how Boston will look to counteract Bregman’s defection just yet. Both Bo Bichette and Eugenio Suarez have been mentioned as possible fallback options. The fit in either case makes sense. Both swing right-handed and have batted-ball profiles that would fit well at Fenway Park. Suarez could step into Bregman’s spot at third base. Bichette could play third base or second base. Former top prospects Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell could factor in at whichever of those two positions is not filled externally.

Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive provide some context in their latest column, as does Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Per McAdam and Cotillo, the Red Sox showed preliminary interest in Suarez earlier in the offseason but were first waiting to see how the markets for not only Bregman but also Ketel Marte and Jorge Polanco played out. Suarez’s camp is operating under the assumption that there’s some interest and will soon be told whether the Sox plan to make a serious bid, per the report. Speier’s report generally backs up that line of thinking; he writes that the Red Sox have viewed Suarez as a fallback and had not seriously engaged with his camp prior to Bregman’s signing.

Suarez, 35 in July, popped 49 homers last season but hit .228/.298/.526 overall. He once graded as a strong defender at the hot corner but has seen his defensive grades slip as he’s aged into his mid-30s — as is often the case. His thunderous right-handed power and pull-happy approach make him a natural fit at Fenway Park, where he could pummel the Green Monster with line drives and clear it with regularity, but Suarez finished the season on a down note; his production waned after a trade from the D-backs to the Mariners last summer. After hitting .248/.320/.576 with a 26.8% strikeout rate for the Snakes, he posted a .189/.255/.428 slash with a 36% strikeout rate in 53 games for the M’s.

At the outset of free agency, MLBTR predicted a three-year deal worth a bit more than $20MM annually for Suarez. That contract seemed likely if a team were to make him a priority. That he’s been viewed as something of a fallback to sluggers like Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso, as well as top infield free agents like Bregman and Bichette, would at least seem to imply that a two-year deal may now be likelier. A two-year contract certainly would align with the Red Sox’ apparent aversion to long-term deals for players in their 30s, but Boston will face competition in signing him. The Mariners remain open to a reunion, and the Pirates, who’ve spent the offseason searching for power upgrades, have interest as well.

The Sox will face competition with regard to Bichette, too — if they plan to pursue him at all. Bichette is 27 and won’t turn 28 until March. His age makes him a candidate to sign the type of long-term deal the Red Sox have been reluctant to put forth to free agents. Both the MassLive and Globe reports cast significant doubt on whether the Red Sox would actually engage in a legitimate bidding war with a team like the Phillies, who met with Bichette just yesterday and are far more comfortable doling out long-term contracts (at least based on recent history).

Depending on how or even if the Red Sox end up accomplishing their goal of adding another hitter, a reallocation of the funds previously earmarked for Bregman could come into play. Both MassLive and the Globe suggest that a pivot to the rotation is something the Sox could now pursue. Speier suggests that the Sox are “open-minded” with regard to the position another impact player could fill. That could mean the rotation or, speculatively speaking, perhaps a run at improving the catching corps. J.T. Realmuto is still a free agent, and the Phillies reportedly don’t think they can sign both Bichette and Realmuto.

If the Sox pivot to the rotation, there are still some notable names on the market. Tim Healey of the Boston Globe reports that as far back as November, Red Sox brass had an in-person sit-down with Framber Valdez’s camp. That meeting came at the GM Meetings, where Valdez reportedly met with at least the Giants and Orioles as well.

Valdez, 32 next year, might not have been a top target after the Red Sox acquired Sonny Gray and pivoted to upgrading the lineup. However, he’d fit the stated goal of adding a No. 2 starter for a playoff series more directly than Gray. A postseason rotation with options including Garrett Crochet, Valdez, Gray and Brayan Bello would be quite strong, and it’s always possible that a touted young arm like Payton Tolle or Connelly Early forces his way into the mix.

Valdez became a free agent for the first time this offseason when he rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros, the only organization he’s ever known. He’s topped 190 innings in three of the past four seasons, pitching to a collective 3.21 ERA in 767 2/3 frames along the way. Valdez’s strikeout rate, walk rate and especially his 60% ground-ball rate have all been far better than the league average during that four-year span.

Signing Valdez, however, would require the Red Sox to punt their second- and fifth-highest selections in this summer’s draft, as well as $1MM of space in next year’s bonus pool for international free agent amateurs. The same is true of longtime Phillies southpaw Ranger Suarez and longtime D-backs righty Zac Gallen, both of whom rejected QOs as well. Whether they’d make those future concessions while simultaneously easing their reluctance to commit long-term deals to veterans in their 30s is an open question, but the Red Sox have now missed out on Bregman, Alonso and Schwarber in free agency, and top trade target Marte doesn’t sound like he’ll be moved at all. They’ll need to find a new plan of attack in the coming days, particularly with offseason activity picking back up following the annual holiday-season lull.

Poll: Will The Cubs Trade From Their Infield?

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The Cubs made a major splash over the weekend by landing star third baseman Alex Bregman on a five-year deal. As a multi-time All-Star who reliably offers Gold Glove defense at third base and posts offense in the 125 wRC+ range, Bregman is sure to provide a major lift to the club headed into 2026. Strong as the signing is for the team, however, it also creates questions about the future of some of their other players. The 2025 Cubs ended the season with regulars all around the infield. Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner handled shortstop and second base for the third consecutive season, while Matt Shaw entered 2025 as the team’s top prospect and had taken over third base on a regular basis by the end of the year.

The addition of Bregman leaves the club with four infielders for three positions. The designated hitter spot could help. With Kyle Tucker not expected to re-sign with the Cubs, Seiya Suzuki could spend more time in the outfield in 2026. However, Moises Ballesteros is currently the favorite for the DH spot, as he had a strong debut with the bat in 2025 but is considered a work in progress as a catcher.

Having too many guys is a good problem to have but it’s still worth considering whether the Cubs will do something to break up that logjam in the short-term. If they don’t, Shaw is likely to be the odd man out. He has options remaining and could certainly be sent to Triple-A Iowa to open the season, though he could also be carried on the club’s bench in a utility capacity. Hoerner is set to hit free agency following the 2026 season, so perhaps the likeliest option is Shaw taking a depth role for this year before taking over at second base when Hoerner reaches free agency next winter.

That’s a plan that comes with flaws in the short- and long-term, however. For one, Shaw losing the opportunity to get consistent, major league at-bats could have an adverse effect on his development. The 24-year-old turned in a decent rookie season in 2025, slashing .226/.295/.394 (93 wRC+) overall in 126 games. Those overall numbers are hardly exceptional, but he improved as the season went on. After the All-Star break, Shaw slashed a very impressive .258/.317/.522 with a wRC+ of 130 as he crushed ten doubles, three triples, and 11 homers in just 205 trips to the plate.

That considerable power potential Shaw flashed is certainly enticing, but it could be difficult for Shaw to build on that success if faced with either inconsistent playing time in a bench role or minor league competition at Triple-A. As noted by The Athletic’s Keith Law in the aftermath of the Bregman signing, Shaw went through several mechanical changes throughout 2025 and at times resisted help from the Cubs’ coaching staff. The youngster’s numbers took a turn for the worse during the final weeks of September and into the postseason, so it’s possible there’s more tweaks left for him to make as well.

That could make trading either Hoerner or Shaw himself a viable outcome. Hoerner’s name has popped up semi-frequently as a trade candidate over the past two offseasons, and it’s certainly easy to see why rival teams would have interest. The 28-year-old is coming off a career year in 2025. He posted a 109 wRC+ and struck out at a microscopic 7.6% clip in 154 games for Chicago. Over the past four years since becoming an everyday player, Hoerner has slashed .284/.339/.389 (105 wRC+) with an above-average wRC+ in every season. He’s paired that solid bat with elite defense at second base and also demonstrated the ability to be a above-average defensive shortstop before being bumped to the keystone by the team’s signing of Swanson back in 2023.

Taken together, Hoerner has been worth 19.6 bWAR and 17.5 fWAR over the past four seasons. That consistent four-to-five win production up the middle is certainly attractive, especially with Hoerner set to make an affordable $12MM salary this year.

The Mariners, Giants, and Yankees are among the teams that have been connected to him in trade to this point. Even as teams have come calling after Hoerner, however, the Cubs seem unlikely to deal him. Signing one impact infielder just to trade another would undercut the improvement offered by signing Bregman, and so it’s not a shock that The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma has suggested that the Cubs would have to be “blown away” in order to deal Hoerner.

Perhaps, then, trading Shaw to a team where he could get consistent playing time in a bid to either add more impact to the roster or beef up a flagging farm system could be the best course of action available to the Cubs. Shaw still has six years of team control remaining and will make the league minimum in 2026, meaning that he could be a fit for a number of teams that might want to upgrade their offense on the cheap. The Pirates, Guardians, Royals, Athletics, Angels, and Nationals are all teams that struggled to find production at either second or third base last year and could appreciate Shaw’s years of control and affordable price tag.

Even that comes with risks, however. Shaw’s value is arguably down relative to this time last year, when he was a consensus top-30 prospect in baseball. Additionally, Hoerner’s status as a pending free agent would make trading Shaw a big risk if not paired with an extension for Hoerner. The upcoming free agent class is reasonably deep in middle infield talent (Ha-Seong Kim, J.P. Crawford, Jazz Chisholm Jr.) but successfully landing one of those players is no guarantee. The team’s internal options behind Shaw are lackluster, as well. James Triantos was once one of the team’s better prospects but had a disastrous season at Triple-A last year that calls into question his prospect status. Jefferson Rojas had a solid year in 2025 but may not be big league ready by 2027.

How do MLBTR readers think the Cubs will handle their infield logjam? Will they work out a trade involving Shaw or Hoerner prior to Opening Day, or will they simply carry both players into the season despite the lack of playing time available? Have your say in the poll below:

Cubs Claim Justin Dean

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The Giants announced that outfielder Justin Dean has been claimed off waivers by the Cubs. San Francisco had designated him for assignment last week to open a roster spot for Tyler Mahle. Chicago had multiple 40-man vacancies and doesn’t need to make a corresponding move. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle was among those to relay the transaction.

Dean, 29, just made his major league debut with the Dodgers last year. He was mostly used as a pinch runner and late-game defensive replacement. He appeared in 18 games for the Dodgers but only made two plate appearances. He then appeared in 13 postseason games as part of the Dodgers’ World Series run, but without making a plate appearance in any of those.

His speed gives him a decent floor as a guy who can steal some bases and run the ball down on the grass. From 2021 to 2025, he swiped 176 bags in 213 attempts in the minors, an 82.6% success rate.

His offense is more questionable but his 2025 was encouraging. Throughout his minor league career, he has drawn free passes but also been punched out at hefty rates. From 2021 to 2024, he had a nice 12.2% walk rate but an ugly 29.6% strikeout rate. In 2025, he was only struck out 23.6% of the time while keeping his walk rate at a healthy 11.2%. The result was a .289/.378/.431 line and 110 wRC+ in Triple-A, though that was propped up by a .380 batting average on balls in play.

The Dodgers bumped him off their 40-man at the end of the season. The Giants grabbed him off waivers and held him for a couple of months but ended up putting him back on the wire. For the Cubs, he’s a fine depth add, especially since they had multiple roster spots open. Dean still has a full slate of options and doesn’t need to be on the big league roster.

Chicago’s outfield alignment projects to feature Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki in starting roles. Kevin Alcántara, James Triantos and Pedro Ramírez are on the 40-man roster and could be candidates for bench roles. Triantos and Ramírez have no big league experience and still have options, so the Cubs would likely prefer them to be getting regular reps in the minors as opposed to sitting in the big league dugout. Alcántara has been optioned for extended stretches in each of the past three years but could qualify for a fourth option.

Since Dean is himself optionable, he could either be getting regular playing time in the minors or he could be in the majors, providing speed and defense off the pine. He has just 52 days of service time, so he can be cheaply controlled for the foreseeable future, as he won’t qualify for arbitration for at least three years.

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

Diamondbacks To Sign Jonathan Loáisiga To Minor League Deal

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The Diamondbacks and right-hander Jonathan Loáisiga have agreed to a minor league deal, reports Jorge Castillo of ESPN. The Ballengee Group client will be in big league camp with the Snakes in spring training.

Loáisiga, 31, has shown big potential in his career but has often struggled to stay healthy. His best season was in 2021, when he gave the Yankees 70 2/3 innings with a 2.17 earned run average. He averaged around 98 miles per hour with his four-seamer and sinker while also throwing a cutter, curveball, slider and changeup. He struck out 24.4% of batters faced, limited walks to a 5.7% clip and induced grounders on 60.9% of balls in play. He racked up five saves and ten holds for the Yanks that year.

The following season, he missed about six weeks due to inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He finished the year with a 4.13 ERA in 48 innings. His ground ball rate held fairly steady but he only punched out 18.2% of opponents and his walked rate climbed to 9.4%. Various elbow issues limited him to just 17 2/3 innings in 2023. He eventually underwent surgery on his ulnar collateral ligament in April of 2024. He began 2025 on the injured list while still recovering from that surgery but was activated in the middle of May.

He tossed 29 2/3 innings last year with a 4.25 ERA, 18.5% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 50.5% ground ball rate. His average fastball velo was down below 97 mph. He hit the IL in August due to back tightness. He was rehabbing from that minor issue when he suffered a lat strain, preventing him from returning late in the year. The Yanks turned down a $5MM club option on Loaisiga’s services for 2026.

Both the Diamondbacks and Loáisiga will be hoping for better health and a bounceback in 2026. Arizona definitely needs bullpen help. Their 2025 relief corps was supposed to be headlined by A.J. Puk and Justin Martínez but both of those two required UCL surgeries in the first half. The Snakes finished the year with a collective bullpen ERA of 4.82, better than just three other big league teams.

Upgrading for 2026 is going to be a challenge as the club is likely going to be operating with a lower payroll, especially when adding to the rotation and outfield could still be priorities for the remainder of the offseason. John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports reports that the club will likely be making more bullpen additions in the coming days. For now, Loáisiga adds a bit of upside without taking up a roster spot. If he does get added to the roster later, it’s unclear what his salary will be but it’s presumably not too onerous.

Photo courtesy of Jason Parkhurst, Imagn Images

Phillies Acquire Chase Shugart

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The Phillies announced that they have acquired right-hander Chase Shugart from the Pirates. Pittsburgh receives minor league infielder Francisco Loreto in return. The Bucs had designated Shugart for assignment last week to open a 40-man spot for Ryan O’Hearn. Philly had a 40-man vacancy but their roster is now full.

Shugart, 29, has tossed 53 2/3 innings in his career. The majority of that was with the Pirates in 2025, plus a brief stint with the Red Sox in 2024. Combined, he has allowed 3.52 earned runs per nine with an 18% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk rate. He has averaged around 95 miles per hour with his four-seamer and sinker while also throwing a cutter, sweeper and changeup.

He has flashed a bit more upside in the minors. Last year, for instance, he tossed 20 2/3 Triple-A innings with a 1.74 ERA. He struck out 25.3% of opponents, limited walks to a 7.6% clip and induced grounders on 54.7% of balls in play. He still has an option remaining, so the Phils can shuttle him between Philly and Triple-A Lehigh Valley throughout the 2026 season. If he still has a roster spot at the end of the season, he can be retained into the future via arbitration.

In order to add that depth, Philly is parting with a prospect. Loreto, 18, was part of Philadelphia’s international signing class in 2024. Initially listed as a catcher when he signed out of Venezuela, he primarily played third base in 2025. He spent last year in the Florida Complex League and slashed .237/.332/.396. He doesn’t appear on top prospect lists but the Pirates are likely pleased just to get a lottery ticket as the return for a guy they had already bumped off the roster.

Photo courtesy of Charles LeClaire, Imagn Images

Guardians Sign Carter Kieboom To Minor League Deal

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The Guardians announced Tuesday that they’ve signed former top prospect Carter Kieboom to a minor league contract. The ACES client will be in major league camp as a non-roster invitee this spring.

Now 28 years old, Kieboom was a first-round pick by the Nationals back in 2016 and has previously ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects. He never made good on that billing in parts of four seasons with Washington, however, slashing just .199/.297/.301 in 508 major league plate appearances. He spent the 2025 season with the Angels after signing as a minor league free agent. Kieboom batted .319/.368/.449 in an extremely hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League setting and went 2-for-8 with a pair of singles in three games with the major league club. The Angels outrighted him following the season.

Kieboom has played third base and shortstop extensively in pro ball, logging more than 2100 innings at each position. He’s also played nearly 600 innings at second base. At the height of his prospect status, Kieboom was regarded as a safe bet to hit thanks to good pitch recognition, strong plate discipline and a quality all-fields approach at the plate. That hasn’t played out in the majors, but he’s a career .288/.380/.439 hitter in 1597 plate appearances at the Triple-A level.

Cleveland is set at third base with Jose Ramirez and has one of the top prospects in baseball, 2024 No. 1 overall pick Travis Bazzana, likely to make his debut at second base this coming season. Kieboom is presumably viewed as a bench/depth option with a tinge of upside remaining who could compete for a role in which he backs up multiple positions. If he doesn’t make the club, he’ll head to Triple-A Columbus as a depth piece.

Mets Reportedly Offer Kyle Tucker Deal With $50MM AAV

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1:35pm: The Mets have made Tucker an offer with a $50MM AAV, per reports from John Mincone as well as Robert Murray of FanSided.

11:37am: The top free agent of the offseason is still unsigned with about a month to go until pitchers and catchers report to spring training. Some recent reporting, including from Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio, has suggested the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Mets are the top suitors for Kyle Tucker at this point. All three have recently met with Tucker, either in person or over Zoom, per Duquette. Will Sammon of The Athletic reports today that the Mets are in the range of offering him $120MM to $140MM on a three-year deal. Sammon says the Mets could go higher and that Tucker could make his decision as soon as this week.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Tucker for a $400MM guarantee on an 11-year deal. That would be $36.36MM in terms of average annual value, paying him from his age-29 through age-39 seasons. That would be in line with other big deals for star-caliber position players.

In the past decade, eight position players have signed for nine years or longer: Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Manny Machado, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. Ohtani got a $70MM AAV but with significant deferrals, knocking the net present value closer to the $45MM range. Soto got $51MM and Judge $40MM. The others were in the $25-35MM range.

It’s unknown what the Blue Jays or Dodgers are willing to offer Tucker but he remains unsigned into mid-January, meaning he hasn’t yet received an offer compelling enough for him to have put pen to paper.

In recent years, it’s become a standard move for a free agent with an underwhelming market to pivot to a short-term pact with high AAVs and opt-outs. Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Pete Alonso have gone down this road in recent years. Everyone in that group apart from Alonso took a three-year deal. Bregman’s was technically for $40MM annually but with deferrals knocking the NPV to the $30MM range. Correa had a $35.1MM AAV, Bellinger $26.7MM and Chapman $18MM. Alonso’s two-year deal had a $27MM AAV.

The plan in that case is to bank a decent amount of money before taking another crack at free agency. The hope would be to then have more luck finding a long-term deal with a better platform season and no longer being tied to qualifying offer penalties. A player can only receive a qualifying offer once in his career. Tucker just rejected a QO from the Cubs and whoever signs him now will be subject to the associated penalties.

This doesn’t always work out but has in many cases. Chapman eventually signed a $151MM extension with the Giants just before returning to free agency. Correa was going to get a $325MM deal from the Giants. Concerns about his physical put the kibosh on that but he still got a $200MM guarantee from the Twins. This winter, Alonso got $155MM from the Orioles. Bregman just got $175MM from the Cubs, though with deferrals knocking the NPV to somewhere in the $150MM range.

There’s also appeal for the team. They have to pay a premium salary and usually forfeit a draft pick or two, and maybe some international bonus pool space as well, but they avoid a long-term commitment. Since players generally decline in productivity as they push through their 30s, it’s understandable for a team to look to avoid length.

Sammon doesn’t mention opt-outs in his piece on the Mets’ offer but that would presumably be a component. From Tucker’s perspective, he’s coming off a couple of seasons undercut by injuries but is still relatively young, going into his age-29 season. A three-year deal with no opt-outs would see him return to free agency ahead of his age-32 season, whereas opt-outs would allow him to try the market again quicker.

Whether he and his representatives have any appetite for that kind of path is unknown. It’s perhaps worth mentioning that the five aforementioned guys who took short-term deals were all Boras Corporation clients. He’s also gone down that road with pitchers such as Blake Snell, Carlos Rodón and Jordan Montgomery. Tucker is not a Boras guy, as he’s represented by Excel Sports Management.

Perhaps Tucker would consider a short-term pact but that also depends what the other offers are. It has been speculated that the Dodgers would also prefer a short-term deal. They could use an outfield upgrade but their roster is one of the older ones in the league and they have a batch of top outfield prospects. Those prospects don’t offer immediate help, as most of them have only recently reached the Double-A level or haven’t even hit that run at all. A short-term deal for Tucker could allow them to upgrade on the grass until those younger guys become more viable big leaguers.

It’s been speculated that the Jays would be more willing to go a long-term deal. They recently signed Kazuma Okamoto but it was reported a week ago that they are still aggressively pursuing Tucker even after landing Okamoto. Toronto has spent aggressively this winter after making it to the World Series in 2025. They gave a nine-figure deal to Dylan Cease, then eight-figure deals to Cody Ponce, Tyler Rogers and Okamoto. That has pushed their payroll to new heights but that could be a byproduct of their deep run last year.

They also have a lot of money coming off the books after 2026, as George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Yimi García, Daulton Varsho and Eric Lauer are impending free agents. Myles Straw would also depart if his club option is turned down and José Berríos can opt out of his deal. That could prompt the Jays to be doubly aggressive now, while they still have all of that talent on the roster.

Next winter doesn’t really have a Tucker-level talent and is also likely to be disrupted by the lockout. If Tucker were to sign a short-term deal, he could again be the top free agent a year from now but would also throw himself into the lockout winter. A long-term pact would keep him away from whatever disruptions are coming a year from now.

For the Mets, they seemingly prefer to avoid long-term pacts at the moment. Since David Stearns has become president of baseball operations, they made an exception for the 26-year-old Soto but have otherwise not signed any deal longer than three years.

They certainly need help in the outfield though. They traded Brandon Nimmo to the Rangers for Marcus Semien. They currently have Soto in one corner and Tyrone Taylor in center. Prospect Carson Benge could seize an Opening Day job but he can play center. If Tucker were brought in to take one corner with Soto in the other, Benge and Taylor could have a spring battle for the center field gig. If Taylor were to win, Benge could get more Triple-A reps. If Benge were to win, Taylor could become a fourth outfielder.

Financially, there’s no real limit to what they could do. Owner Steve Cohen has shown himself willing to run the Mets up to having the top payroll in the league. They’ve had a fairly modest offseason, defined more by subtraction than addition. They sent out Nimmo and Jeff McNeil while also letting Alonso and Edwin Díaz sign elsewhere.

RosterResource projects them for a payroll of $295MM and a competitive balance tax number of $296MM. Those are big figures but the Mets finished 2025 at $340MM and $337MM in those categories, respectively. Paying Tucker something between $40MM and $47MM annually would get them right back around to last year’s range.

It would also presumably do a lot to quell the fan base, who are currently not thrilled by the familiar faces who have departed in the past few months. It would also prevent them from adding another big salary to the long-term books, as they are already set to pay Soto and Francisco Lindor huge annual sums through 2039 and 2031 respectively.

Photo courtesy of David Banks, Imagn Images

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