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West Notes: Bush, Athletics, Greinke

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The Rangers are set to move right-hander Matt Bush back to the bullpen role in which he thrived for much of the 2016-17 seasons, writes Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The 32-year-old righty had been in the mix for a rotation spot to this point, but he expressed peace of mind with the decision to return to the ’pen, indicating that he’s “very happy” to have clarity over his role and that he feels the team made the right decision. As Grant notes, the decision likely means Texas’ rotation will consist of Cole Hamels, Matt Moore, Doug Fister and Mike Minor early in the year, with Martin Perez able to join that quartet as early as his health permits. Jesse Chavez is on hand as a long relief option, and Bartolo Colon could have an easy path to cracking the big league roster if Perez needs some DL time early in the year.

Elsewhere in the western divisions …

  • The Athletics’ offseason moves and budding farm system have made them into a more interesting club than many are giving them credit for, opines ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. The pairing of Matt Chapman and Matt Olson at the team’s infield corners gives them one of the game’s great young defensive players — one AL evaluator from another club likened Chapman’s glove to that of Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado — and an impressive young slugger whose fast rise in the big leagues mirrored that of Phillies slugger Rhys Hoskins. (Olson hit .259/.352/.651 with 24 homers in 216 plate appearances.) Paired with one of the game’s most under-the-radar sluggers (Khris Davis) and interesting upper-level prospects like left-hander A.J. Puk, the A’s could surprise some in 2018, even if they’re not likely to vault up into to division contention just yet. Crasnick spoke to GM David Forst, manager Bob Melvin and scouts from other clubs about the improving young A’s club.
  • While there’s still plenty of time left in camp, there’s some rising unease within the Diamondbacks organization surrounding Zack Greinke, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. Greinke himself noted that he’s somewhat “nervous” that he won’t be working in his typical low-nineties range by the start of the season given that he’s still sitting in the mid-eighties with his fastball. Picking up on those comments, in the context of the team’s plans for an Opening Day starter, skipper Torey Lovullo acknowledged being “concerned about where [Greinke is] at” and said he plans to “let everything kind of settle down” before the club decides who’ll take the ball to open the season. Of course, it doesn’t matter as much whether Greinke throws the first pitch as it does that he’s at full strength. As to that matter, Lovullo suggested he’s nowhere near panicking over the veteran hurler. Instead, he stressed, his “concern is minimal” that Greinke will ultimately get up to speed and be prepared to attempt a repeat of a strong 2017 effort.

Injury Notes: Cano, Delgado, White Sox, Finnegan

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The latest updates on some injury situations around the game…

  • Minor left hamstring tightness forced Robinson Cano out during the second inning of today’s Mariners/Reds game, and the second baseman will receive an MRI tomorrow.  Cano told reporters (including the Seattle Times’ Ryan Divish) that he doesn’t believe the injury is serious, comparing it a hamstring issue from last season that kept him out of action for just a couple of games.  The Mariners are certainly hopeful they can avoid another spring injury — Ryon Healy (hand) and Ben Gamel (oblique) could miss Opening Day, while the likes of Felix Hernandez, Mitch Haniger, Erasmo Ramirez and Dan Vogelbach have all also missed time with less-lengthy injuries.
  • Diamondbacks righty Randall Delgado could be questionable for Opening Day, as manager Torey Lovullo told The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan (Twitter link) and other media that Delgado has an issue with his left oblique.  Delgado was already working his way back from a flexor strain that ended his 2017 campaign in mid-July.  Prior that injury, Delgado had a solid 3.59 ERA, 8.6 K/9, and 4.23 K/BB rate over 62 2/3 IP for Arizona as a swingman, making five starts and 21 relief appearances.
  • Nicky Delmonico and Tyler Saladino were both injured after the two White Sox outfielders collided while chasing a fly ball during today’s Spring Training game.  As per announcements from the team, Saladino was diagnosed with a mild concussion and will enter the seven-day concussion protocol, while Delmonico suffered a partial dislocation of his left shoulder and will be re-examined tomorrow.  It’s a tough setback for the duo, as both players were looking to establish themselves on a young Sox roster that is wide-open for young talent to win jobs.  Saladino was in the running for a utility role, while Delmonico was looking to win regular at-bats as either a left fielder or DH after an impressive (.262/.373/.482 with nine homers in 166 PA) rookie debut in 2017.  While the severity of the injury isn’t yet known, Delmonico seems likely to begin the season on the disabled list.
  • Reds left-hander Brandon Finnegan lasted just two batters into an outing today before leaving the game with what the club described as a “lateral forearm spasm.”  The injury doesn’t seem too problematic, as Finnegan himself said in a pair of tweets that the problem was “just a knot” and leaving the game was “just precautionary, got it all worked out and good to go.”  Finnegan posted a 3.98 ERA over 172 innings for Cincinnati in 2016, but multiple shoulder problems limited him to just four starts last season.

Minor MLB Transactions: 3/8/18

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Here are Thursday’s minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Mariners announced that righty Shawn Armstrong has been outrighted to Triple-A after clearing waivers. Armstrong, 27, is out of options and obviously was not seen as likely to win a pen job out of camp. Still, he could be a useful depth piece for the M’s. In 43 1/3 MLB frames over three seasons, Armstrong owns a 3.53 ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 as well as an 11.3% swinging-strike rate. Armstrong has posted interesting numbers at Triple-A, where he carries a 2.44 ERA with 13.0 K/9 and 4.7 BB/9 in 133 total innings.
  • Lefty Hunter Cervenka has been released by the Marlins, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). Cervenka, who recently turned 28, was outrighted off of the 40-man roster over the winter. He has 48 MLB innings under his belt but has not yet shown an ability to stay in the zone, with 6.8 BB/9 in that span. Cervenka spent the bulk of 2017 at Triple-A, where he worked to a 4.58 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 5.9 BB/9 over 39 1/3 innings.

Earlier Transactions

  • In a minor signing that flew a bit below our radar earlier this winter, the D-backs’ Triple-A affiliate announced that they signed former Mets righty Tyler Pill to a minor league pact. Pill, 28 in May, made his MLB debut with the Mets last year and totaled 22 innings of work across seven innings, including three starts. He struggled to a 5.32 ERA with a 16-to-10 K/BB ratio in that time, but Pill posted more encouraging numbers in a very hitter-friendly Triple-A Las Vegas setting. In 80 1/3 frames in the Pacific Coast League, he logged a 3.47 ERA, albeit with a modest 5.6 K/9 mark against 2.5 BB/9. Pill was assigned to Reno, per the announcement, and hasn’t logged an inning with the D-backs this spring, so it seems he was not invited to Major League camp. He’ll presumably be on hand as a depth option in Triple-A this season.
  • Jumping further back into Mets history, right-hander Vic Black has signed on with the independent New Jersey Jackals of the Canadian-American Association (h/t: Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, on Twitter). Now 29 years of age, the Mets hoped at one point that Black could be a long-term piece in their bullpen. He turned in a 2.96 ERA in 51 2/3 MLB innings from 2013-14 between the Pirates and Mets, but shoulder issues slowed his career before New York eventually cut him loose. Black struggled between A-ball and Double-A with the Giants organization in 2017 and will hope to use the indy circuit as a platform to get his career back on track.
  • Sticking with former big leaguers joining the independent leagues, the Long Island Ducks announced yesterday that they’ve signed former Braves All-Star Jair Jurrjens. Back in 2008, a 22-year-old Jurrjens finished third in NL Rookie of the Year voting with the Braves and went on to earn All-Star honors as a 25-year-old in 2011. However, a series of knee injuries torpedoed his promising career, and he hasn’t appeared in the big leagues since totaling 16 2/3 innings for the Orioles and Rockies from 2013-14. Jurrjens did toss 54 1/3 innings with the Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliate in 2017, and he turned 32 years of age just five weeks ago, so he could still work his way back into affiliated ball with a strong showing in the Atlantic League.

NL West Notes: Dickerson, Dodgers, Ohtani, D-backs

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Padres outfielder Alex Dickerson has been diagnosed with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his left (throwing) elbow, and surgery is a possibility, writes MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. It’s a tough break for the 27-year-old Dickerson, who missed all of the 2017 season following back surgery but showed some promise at the plate in his rookie campaign in 2016. That year, Dickerson slashed .257/.333/.455 with 10 homers in 285 plate appearances while walking at a 9.1 percent clip and fanning in just 15.4 percent of his plate appearances. Per Cassavell, the club is “hopeful” that Dickerson won’t require Tommy John surgery, but even if he doesn’t require surgery, he’s likely to miss at least the first month of the season.

More from the NL West…

  • Andy McCullough of the L.A. Times takes an excellent look at the Dodgers’ failed pursuit of Shohei Ohtani. The team had Clayton Kershaw, Justin Turner and Chris Taylor fly into L.A. to help sell Ohtani on the Dodgers in their in-person meeting, but it proved to be a somewhat frustrating experience. Both Turner and Kershaw candidly stated that the process felt like a “waste of time,” indicating that Ohtani already seemed set on signing with an AL club where he could serve as a part-time DH. Kershaw didn’t express any ill feelings toward Ohtani himself, though he voiced some frustration toward CAA, Ohtani’s agency, over the matter. “I’m kind of mad at his agent for making us waste all that time and effort,” said Kershaw. “Fifteen teams should have been out of it, from the beginning.” Ohtani’s agent with CAA, Nez Balelo, issued a rebuttal to McCullough in which he calls any assertion that Ohtani would meet with a team for which he had no interest in playing “unfounded and an insult to [Ohtani’s] personal ethics.” Balelo also points out that Ohtani met with more NL clubs (four) than AL clubs (three). It’s a fascinating column that is filled with quotes from Kershaw, Turner, Balelo, Dave Roberts and Andrew Friedman.
  • The D-backs have plenty of roster decisions to make by the end of Spring Training, but the bench presents a particularly enigmatic situation, writes Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic. GM Mike Hazen and skipper Torey Lovullo need to determine whether they plan to carry seven or eight relievers, which will determine whether they utilize a four- or five-man bench. Even if it’s the latter, there are numerous battles for a spot. Lovullo calls a third catcher a “luxury” that he enjoyed in 2017, but Chris Herrmann or John Ryan Murphy (the two men who’d compete to fill that role) are vying with Yasmany Tomas and possibly Christian Walker for a potential fifth bench slot. The first four slots figure to go to Jeff Mathis, Chris Owings, Jarrod Dyson and Daniel Descalso, with Nick Ahmed and Ketel Marte likely holding the up-the-middle starting gigs. Notably, both Herrmann and Murphy are out of minor league options.

Minor MLB Transactions: 3/5/18

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Here are Monday’s minor moves from around the league…

  • The D-backs announced that they’ve signed veteran catcher Anthony Recker to a minor league contract and invited him to big league camp in Spring Training. The 34-year-old Recker is a career .199/.283/.348 hitters in parts of seven big league seasons and has spent the bulk of the past two years with the Braves, appearing in 39 games at the Major League level. The Diamondbacks organization is well-stocked with catching depth as it is, having Alex Avila, Jeff Mathis and Chris Herrmann on the big league roster plus and John Ryan Murphy on the 40-man roster as well. Josh Thole is also in camp with the D-backs on a minor league deal. Both Herrmann and Murphy are out of minor league options, though, so it’s possible that either could find himself in another organization before the end of camp.

NL Notes: Rollins, Phillies, Braves, Swanson, Diamondbacks

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Longtime major league shortstop Jimmy Rollins hasn’t officially wrapped up his playing career since the Giants released him in March 2017, but it seems the 39-year-old is heading in that direction. Rollins will soon meet with Phillies general manager Matt Klentak to discuss a potential role, according to Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Rollins would like to retire as a Phillie, and while he isn’t interested in coaching, “he could work on assisting some players or on special assignments,” Breen writes. Rollins is best known for his run with the Phillies from 2000-14, a period in which he established himself as one of the greatest players in franchise history.

More from the National League…

  • This is “a critical year” for the Braves, in part because it will help them decide how aggressively to seek upgrades via the free agent and trade markets next winter, general manager Alex Anthopoulos told Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. “The ideal scenario is that these guys emerge, they all take these jobs, run with them and become a part of our core,” Anthopoulos said of the Braves’ young talent, and he mentioned shortstop Dansby Swanson, third basemen Johan Camargo and Austin Riley, and catcher Alex Jackson as players who are capable of etching themselves into the team’s long-term plans this season. The most notable member of that group is Swanson, whom Arizona chose No. 1 in the 2015 draft and then traded to Atlanta in the well-known Shelby Miller deal later that year. Swanson’s now coming off his first full major league season, in which he struggled to a .232/.312/.324 batting line in 551 plate appearances. “Dansby Swanson at shortstop; everyone knows about Draft status and talent and all of that, but he didn’t have the year he’s capable of last year,” Anthopoulos said. “He’d be the first one to tell you that. Does he take that step and emerge as our shortstop?”
  • At 34 and in the last year of his contract, outfielder Nick Markakis probably isn’t in the Braves’ long-term plans. But he’s still a Brave for now, and his coaches and teammates are glad, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution explains. Braves hitting coach Kevin Seitzer told O’Brien that Markakis is the “ultimate professional” and compared him to Royals luminaries George Brett and Alex Gordon, two people Seitzer’s familiar with from his days in Kansas City. Meanwhile, Swanson is “super thankful” Markakis is still in the fold. The same could hold true for manager Brian Snitker, whom Markakis raved about to O’Brien. According to O’Brien, now-former Braves president John Hart berated Snitker in the manager’s office after a loss last August. Markakis caught wind of it and “made it known, had the message sent up the chain, that if Hart ever treated the manager that way again that Markakis would, in so many words, kick his ass,” O’Brien writes.
  • The Diamondbacks’ three-man closer competition is “wide open,” manager Torey Lovullo told Steve Gilbert of MLB.com and other reporters Sunday. The club’s choosing among Brad Boxberger, Yoshihisa Hirano (two offseason acquisitions) and Archie Bradley to replace Fernando Rodney, who converted 39 of 45 save opportunities as a D-back last year before leaving for Minnesota in free agency. Boxberger, though, has been dealing with “general arm soreness,” Gilbert relays, and hasn’t pitched in a game since Feb. 23. It’s unclear when he’ll see game action again, but Lovullo did say he “looked good” and “felt fantastic” during a 25-pitch bullpen session Sunday.
  • Elsewhere on the Diamondbacks’ pitching staff, a lack of starting depth is an issue, particularly since the team dealt Anthony Banda to the Rays in last month’s Steven Souza Jr. trade, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic observes. Piecoro goes on to run down the Diamondbacks’ in-house options behind the enviable starting five of Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, Zack Godley, Taijuan Walker and Patrick Corbin. With the exception of the aforementioned Shelby Miller, who won’t return until the summer after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, no one in the group has much of a big league track record. Fortunately for the D-backs, general manager Mike Hazen realizes they need help on that front. “I think there’s still some work to do there,” Hazen said of the team’s starting depth. “I think it’s an obvious area of focus now that we traded Banda. As I said before, it sort of always was as we went through that process.”

Quick Hits: Pirates, Rays, Red Sox, Heyward, Int’l Prospects

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The Pirates and Rays have faced criticism from fans and pundits for a lack of spending, plus they were two of the four teams cited in a grievance filed by the players’ union about the quartet’s use of revenue-sharing funds.  ESPN.com’s David Schoenfield, however, argues that the Bucs and Rays didn’t boast big payrolls even when they were in contention, and the larger issue that hurt Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay in 2017 was a lack of production from homegrown talent.  Neither club has done a good job of drafting and developing prospects in recent years, and the lack of a strong pipeline of minor league talent is deadly for any smaller-market franchise.

Here’s more from around the baseball world…

  • The hiring of new manager Alex Cora as gave the Red Sox some insight into how the Astros (Cora’s former team) used analytics to help with in-game strategy, and it made the Sox realize that they were falling behind in the advanced statistics arms race, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports.  Boston’s analytics department is now up to 10 full-time employees (plus interns) after some offseason hirings, and the team has drastically overhauled its advance scouting and data-gathering methodology to better get information to Cora and the coaching staff.
  • Jason Heyward’s struggles since joining the Cubs have almost reached the point of historical oddity, as “this type of production drop during a player’s prime is nearly unprecedented, especially when injuries aren’t a factor,” The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma writes (subscription required).  Heyward has just a .243/.315/.353 slash line over 1073 PA for Chicago, as opposed to the .268/.353/.431 he posted in 3429 PA with the Braves and Cardinals over his first six seasons.  Sharma cites a few other players who went through similarly sudden early declines, and only former Dodgers and Expos outfielder/first baseman Ron Fairly was able to entirely rebound and again become a productive hitter.  Still, Heyward has been working with new hitting coach Chili Davis and the Cubs are still hopeful that he can regain some of his old stroke.
  • Major League Baseball recently held a showcase for some of the top international prospects who will become available when the 2018-19 international signing window opens on July 2.  In a subscription-only piece, Baseball America’s Ben Badler (two links) has the breakdown of some of the pitchers who made a particular impression, with some of these young arms already linked to such teams as the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Phillies.

West Notes: Kershaw, Hamels, D-backs, Padres

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There continues to be hope that the top pitcher in the game, left-hander Clayton Kershaw, will remain with the Dodgers beyond the upcoming season. Kershaw, who could opt out of the final two years and $65MM on his contract next winter, said last week that he and Dodgers management are “on the same page.” Then, on Saturday, Dodgers owner Mark Walter told Jon Heyman of FanRag that “[Kershaw] should be a Dodger for life.” While it doesn’t seem as if a new deal is imminent – both Walter and Kershaw suggested to Heyman that the hurler wants to wait until the end of the year to sort out his future – the three-time Cy Young winner gushed over his long tenure with the franchise. “I love it here. It’s great,” said Kershaw, who’s entering his age-30 season. “I’ve had an amazing run here. And I don’t take that for granted. Not many guys can say they get to go to the playoffs (almost) every year, or even that they have a chance to go to the playoffs every year.”

More from the majors’ West divisions…

  • The Rangers could elect to use a six-man rotation this year, but their best starter, Cole Hamels, isn’t on board (via Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News). The 34-year-old southpaw opined Saturday that a six-man starting staff isn’t “appropriate for where I am at this stage.” Hamels also took a shot at the idea in general, saying: “It’s not part of baseball. I know that’s the new, analytical side, trying to re-invent the wheel. … that’s just not what MLB is to me. That’s not how I learned from my mentors. That’s not the way I’m geared to pitch.” Unfortunately for Hamels, manager Jeff Banister favors the six-man alignment and seems more likely than ever to try it this season, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets. Regardless of how Texas’ rotation plans shake out, it’ll probably need a bounce-back year from Hamels to have any chance at a playoff spot. The longtime front-end starter endured arguably the worst season of his career in 2017, when he logged a 4.20 ERA/4.62 FIP with 6.39 K/9 and 3.22 BB/9 across 148 innings.
  • The Diamondbacks are still determining their starting middle infield for 2018, Steve Gilbert of MLB.com writes. Either Ketel Marte or Chris Owings could start at second base or shortstop, while Nick Ahmed is also in contention – but only at short. “I’d say on that front, we value Nick as a shortstop,” manager Torey Lovullo said. “I haven’t had a conversation with him beyond playing shortstop at this point.” With the exception of an 11-inning stint at the keystone in 2014, his first taste of major league action, Ahmed has spent his entire career at short. He has dazzled defensively, evidenced by his 37 DRS and 19.6 UZR, but has only managed a .226/.273/.345 batting line in 1,020 plate appearances.
  • The Padres have temporarily halted right-hander Colin Rea’s throwing program after he experienced soreness in his pitching shoulder Friday, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports. Rea, who’s working back from 2016 Tommy John surgery, is now unlikely to be ready for the start of the year, Cassavell suggests. Consequently, it appears he’s out of the running for a spot in the Padres’ season-opening rotation, though Cassavell notes that they still have seven other candidates for their starting five.

Market Notes: Upton, Archer, Realmuto, Holland, Lynn

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Over at The Athletic, Pedro Moura held a fascinating conversation with Angels slugger Justin Upton. (Subscription link.) There’s plenty of interest in the chat, though Upton’s comments on free agency are of particular interest and relevance. The thrust of his sentiment is that teams seem to be looking to score free-agent value rather than identifying and “courting” players they actively wish to employ. “Teams don’t value players as people anymore,” says Upton. “They value them as a number on a sheet of paper.”

Of course, Upton forewent a chance at returning to the open market by agreeing to a deal with an organization he was comfortable with. Here’s the latest on the unusually high number of quality free agents still not in camp and other market notes:

  • The likelihood remains that the Rays will enter the season with Chris Archer on the staff, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports among other notes. That’s due in no small part to the team’s lofty asking price; one rival executive suggests that the Tampa Bay front office “wanted our whole farm system” to move Archer. The club has given that impression publicly, too. Senior VP of baseball ops Chaim Bloom reiterated that the expectation is to hang onto Archer and others in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). He added that the internal expectation is that it will begin to reap the rewards of an effort over recent years to bolster the farm depth while still trying to compete at the MLB level.
  • It has remained interesting to consider whether the Nationals might pry catcher J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins. But there isn’t much recent indication of serious talks, and Heyman indicates that’s due to what seems to be a big gulf in the sides’ valuations. Washington won’t give top prospects Victor Robles and Juan Soto, per the report; while the club might part with young infielder Carter Kieboom or outfielder Michael Taylor, it seems Miami was asking for too much additional talent to be included in a package.
  • The outfield market has certainly delivered some surprises thus far. Heyman says Jarrod Dyson spurned an early two-year, $14MM offer, though a source tells MLBTR that is not accurate. Dyson ultimately signed for $7.5MM with the Diamondbacks. It remains to be seen what’ll happen with players such as Carlos Gonzalez and Jon Jay, each of whom were rated among the fifty best free agents this winter by MLBTR. Heyman says the Indians are still looking at right-handed outfield bats, though it would surely be a surprise for the team to plunk down any meaningful money to make an addition. Perhaps the trade route could still hold some surprises, though that’s pure speculation on my part.
  • Veteran reliever Greg Holland might have overplayed his hand in spurning the Rockies earlier in the winter. Colorado was willing to give him something approaching the three-year, $51MM deal the team ultimately inked with Wade Davis, Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggests in an appearance on the podcast of Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. It’s premature, perhaps, to declare that Holland won’t be able to top that number, though it’s frankly difficult to see where that level of interest might come from — as MLBTR’s Steve Adams has recently explained.
  • Holland’s list of suitors is in question at the moment. One thing that seems clear, per Heyman, is that the Cubs aren’t planning on making a surprise run at the closer. Rather, Chicago seems largely committed to utilizing Brandon Morrow in the ninth inning and is likely to hold back its remaining payroll reserves for potential mid-season additions.
  • So, how low could the remaining pitchers go? Presumably there’s a point at which some bidding would occur. But it’s notable that, per ESPN 1500’s Darren Wolfson (podcast link), the Twins expressed interest in Lance Lynn in the range of just $10MM to $12MM over two seasons. Just how that level of interest came about and was expressed isn’t clear. The team has also made some fairly notable recent commitments and may just not have much more payroll flexibility. And it certainly shouldn’t be taken as evidence of Lynn’s current market value. Still, it’s interesting to learn that’s the current extent of Minnesota’s interest.

NL West Notes: Kershaw, Dodgers, Padres, D-backs, Williamson

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Over at Fangraphs, Jay Jaffe takes an analytic approach to forecasting a new contract for Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw, assuming the three-time Cy Young winner opts out of the remaining two years and $65MM on his current deal after the season. Jaffe notes that, historically speaking, seven-year deals are the norm for elite arms inking both extensions and free-agent pacts, adding that it seems reasonable for Kershaw and his reps at Excel Sports Management to strive for a record-setting average annual value that’d top the current highwater mark set by former teammate Zack Greinke ($34.417MM). That’d set the baseline at something in the vicinity of $241MM over a seven-year term, which seems staggering for a pitcher’s age-31 through age-37 seasons, though Jaffe utilizes multiple projection models and aging curves to demonstrate that Kershaw could actually be, statistically speaking, a strong candidate to nonetheless provide surplus value (or something close to it).

Jaffe also notes that the Dodgers probably wouldn’t risk a new extension beginning with the 2018 season for luxury tax purposes, though a contract announced after Opening Day and beginning with the 2019 season would not count against their current luxury tax ledger. It’s an interesting look at one of the most interesting contractual situations in all of baseball and is well worth a full look.

More from the NL West…

  • The Dodgers and Padres are both facing crowded outfield mixes, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick notes in a team-by-team look at the Cactus League. The Dodgers made “every attempt” to trade Matt Kemp after reacquiring him in a salary-motivated trade back in December but were unable to find a taker. He’s now competing with Joc Pederson and Andrew Toles for at-bats in left field, with prospect Alex Verdugo looming as well. The Padres, meanwhile, have Manuel Margot and Wil Myers holding down a pair of outfield spots, leaving a huge group of Hunter Renfroe, Jose Pirela, Alex Dickerson, Travis Jankowski and Franchy Cordero vying for playing time. Skipper Andy Green tells Crasnick there’s a “cutthroat competition” for playing time but also noted that the deep mix of outfielders creates the ability to platoon and play matchups more effectively.
  • The D-backs are weighing three middle infielders for two spots, writes MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, with both Ketel Marte and Nick Ahmed vying for the everyday shortstop role while Chris Owings sees time at both middle infield slots. The starting shortstop gig may come down to a battle between Marte and Ahmed, with the former being a offensive-minded option and the latter being a considerably more gifted defender. (Ahmed’s 35 Defensive Runs Saved since 2015 rank 15th in MLB at any position despite the fact that he has fewer innings played than any of the 14 players ahead of him.) Manager Torey Lovullo played it close to the vest when asked by Sanchez about his starting shortstop, simply stating that the organization “loves” all three players. “It’s probably too early for me to give you what will happen [Opening Day],” said Lovullo. “It will be unfair to these guys. They are going to compete.”
  • Giants outfielder Mac Williamson spent the offseason working with private hitting instructor Doug Latta, whose most prominent success story is Justin Turner, writes Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Williamson spoke with Pavlovic about the changes he’s made to his swing, including the lowering of his hands and incorporation of a larger leg kick. Giants staff members have tried to get Williamson to lift the ball with more regularity in the past, Pavlovic notes, but he’s still posted an ugly 56.6 percent ground-ball rate in his career despite owning a fair bit of raw power. Pavlovic adds that Williamson is likely ticketed for Triple-A, which isn’t a huge surprise given the presence of Andrew McCutchen, Hunter Pence, Austin Jackson and two out-of-options teammates in Jarrett Parker and Gorkys Hernandez.
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