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Braves Re-Sign Chris Martin

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The Braves announced Tuesday that they’ve re-signed right-hander Chris Martin to a two-year contract. The deal is worth a guaranteed $14MM and will be evenly distributed at $7MM per season, according to the team. Martin is represented by ISE Baseball.

Chris Martin | Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

It’s the third notable relief pickup of the past week for the Braves, who already snagged arguably the top reliever on the market last Thursday when signing Will Smith to a three-year, $40MM contract. Atlanta also re-signed veteran righty Darren O’Day to a one-year, $2.25MM deal in the early stages of the offseason. Between Smith, Martin, O’Day, Mark Melancon and Shane Greene, the Atlanta bullpen will head into the 2020 season as both a much more established and much more expensive collective unit than it did in 2019.

Martin, 33, enjoyed the finest season of his professional career in 2019, pitching to a combined 3.40 ERA with a masterful 65-to-5 K/BB ratio in 55 2/3 innings of relief between the Rangers and Braves. The towering righty, listed at 6’8″, opened the season in Texas but found himself pitching for the Braves down the stretch after Atlanta traded former first-rounder and top prospect Kolby Allard to the Rangers to acquire him on July 30. He was set to make his postseason debut against the Cardinals in the NLDS when an oblique injury cropped up and forced him out of the game before throwing a pitch in what proved to be a pivotal moment in the Braves’ postseason loss.

This past season, Martin posted a career-high 95.7 mph average fastball and logged career-high marks in swinging-strike rate (12.4 percent) and opponents’ chase rate (38.3 percent). The only pitcher in baseball (min. 50 innings pitched) who boasted a lower walk percentage than Martin’s 2.3 percent mark was Atlanta teammate Josh Tomlin (2.2 percent), but Martin’s 30.1 percent strikeout rate was nearly double that of Tomlin. The extent to which he can replicate his enormous gains in swinging-strike, chase and walk rates will determine Martin’s success in his second stint with the Braves, but there’s little denying that he was among the most appealing arms available on the market this winter.

Prior to landing far and away the largest contract of his professional career, Martin, has had one of the most fascinating odysseys in all of baseball (as most recently chronicled by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Tim Tucker). Drafted out of high school in ’04 and junior college in ’05, Martin opted not to sign in either instance and ultimately went undrafted in 2006 after undergoing shoulder surgery that he believed would end his baseball aspirations. Years later, after working as a UPS driver and working at Lowe’s, a game of catch with a friend brought about the realization that his surgically repaired shoulder no longer caused him pain.

A second indie ball stint was parlayed into a minor league deal with the Red Sox, who traded Martin to the Rockies in 2013. Just four years removed from delivering packages and driving a forklift, Martin made his MLB debut with the Rockies in 2014. Brief stints with the Rox and Yankees didn’t yield favorable results, and Martin ultimately found his first seven-figure contract pitching overseas for the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan. His dominance in NPB led to a two-year, $4MM deal with the Rangers. Prior to today’s announcement, Martin’s career earnings between MLB and NPB checked in south of $7MM. The two-year, $14MM agreement matches the prediction included in MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent list, where Martin ranked 27th.

Early in the season the Braves will continue to deploy Melancon as the club’s closer, general manager Alex Anthopoulos suggested following the signing of Smith (link via Matthew Leach of MLB.com). That should lead to a primary setup corps of Smith, Martin, Greene and O’Day, with a number of the Braves’ young arms combining to round out the bullpen mixture. Luke Jackson, Grant Dayton, A.J. Minter, Chad Sobotka and Jacob Webb will be among the names considered by the Atlanta brass, barring additional bullpen acquisitions and or roster moves that send some of those incumbent options elsewhere.

Braves Add Five Players To 40-Man Roster

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The Braves announced Tuesday that they’ve selected the contracts of outfielder Cristian Pache, catcher William Contreras, right-hander Jasseel De La Cruz and lefties Tucker Davidson and Phil Pfeifer.

Each of Pache, Contreras, De La Cruz and Davidson rank inside the Braves’ top 15 prospects over at MLB.com, with Pache considered to be among the elite prospects in all of baseball. Pache, who turns 21 today, is an elite center field defender who is fresh off a .277/.340/.462 batting line put together against vastly older competition between Double-A and Triple-A this season. Contreras, also 21, is the younger brother of Cubs backstop Willson Contreras. He hit .255/.314/.354 in 416 plate appearances between Class-A Advanced and Double-A in 2019.

Both Davidson, 24, and Pfeifer, 27, reached Triple-A for the first time this season, though both pitchers’ time with Atlanta’s Gwinnett affiliate was brief late in the season. De La Cruz, meanwhile, topped out at Double-A. All three worked more as starters than relievers, giving the Braves another wave of near-MLB arms from which they could draw during the upcoming 2020 season.

The addition of all five prospects protects them from being selected in this year’s Rule 5 Draft. The deadline for all 30 MLB teams to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft is tomorrow evening. Atlanta’s 40-man roster is now up to a count of 38 players.

Braves Reportedly Interested In Marcell Ozuna

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The Braves “have some interest” in free agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna, hears Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Atlanta joins the previously-known Cardinals, Reds, White Sox, Rangers, and Marlins in the early sweepstakes for the corner outfielder. Atlanta already re-signed Nick Markakis, but he could be in line for a lesser role after a subpar age-36 season. Alternatively, Atlanta could move Ronald Acuña to center field full-time should they acquire another corner outfielder, be it Ozuna or someone else. Signing the 29-year-old Ozuna, a qualifying offer recipient, would cost the Braves their second-highest draft choice and $500K of international bonus pool space.

Examing The Braves' Payroll

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  • Between Will Smith, Mark Melancon, and Shane Greene, the Braves could be committing roughly $33.5MM in salary to three relievers next season, Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes.  Greene’s salary is still up in the air, as the Braves could potentially non-tender the righty rather than pay him $6.5MM in projected arbitration salary.  A non-tender or trade could be possible if the Braves are wary of overspending on their bullpen, since $33.5MM is rather a hefty sum for a trio that only featured one member (Smith) who posted really outstanding numbers in 2019.  Tucker observes that the Braves already have around $100MM (barring any more non-tenders) on the books for player payroll for next season, which leaves them with quite a bit of spending capacity if the team is willing or able to match its season-ending $144MM payroll figure from last year.

7 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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The 4pm CT deadline has passed for free agents to accept or reject qualifying offers, and seven of the 10 players issued offers have officially turned them down.  An eighth free agent, Will Smith, rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer and left the free agent market even before the deadline passed, signing a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves.  Jake Odorizzi of the Twins and Jose Abreu of the White Sox each accepted their team’s qualifying offers, and will now earn $17.8MM for the 2020 season.

Here are the seven players who rejected their former team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer….

There aren’t any surprises in that list, as there wasn’t doubt that Bumgarner, Cole, Donaldson, Rendon, Strasburg, and Wheeler would forego the one-year offer in search of a much richer, multi-year commitment.  There was perhaps a bit more uncertainty surrounding Ozuna and Smith, given that Ozuna was coming off a pair of good but unspectacular years in St. Louis and Smith could perhaps have been wary of how the QO would impact his market, given what happened to another closer in Craig Kimbrel last winter.

If anything, the only real surprise occurred on the acceptance side, as Odorizzi was seen as a candidate to receive a multi-year offer before he opted to remain in Minnesota in 2020.  Abreu, on the other hand, was widely expected to remain with the White Sox in some fashion, either via the QO or perhaps a multi-year extension.  It should be noted that Odorizzi and Abreu are still free to negotiate longer-term deals with their respective teams even after accepting the qualifying offer.

Teams that sign a QO-rejecting free agent will have to give up at least one draft pick and some amount of international bonus pool money as compensation.  (Click here for the list of what each individual team would have to forfeit to sign a QO free agent).  The Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, and Braves are each in the same tier of compensation pool, so if any of their QO free agents signs elsewhere, the six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft, or roughly in the range of the 75th to 85th overall pick.  Atlanta, for instance, probably didn’t mind giving up their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft to sign Smith since the Braves have another pick coming back to their if Donaldson leaves for another club.

A total of 90 players have been issued qualifying offers since the QO system was introduced during the 2012-13 offseason, and Odorizzi and Abreu become the seventh and eighth players to accept the one-year pact.  Odorizzi and Abreu are now ineligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips into free agency, so both players won’t be tied to draft/international pool penalties if they hit the open market following the 2020 season.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was the first to report that Donaldson turned down his QO, while ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan was the first to report on the other six names.

Braves Sign Will Smith

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The Braves have signed closer Will Smith to a three-year contract, the team announced.  The three guaranteed years will pay Smith $39MM, and Atlanta has a $13MM club option for 2023.  That option contains a $1MM buyout, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link), bringing the total value of the deal to $40MM.  Smith will earn $13MM in each year of the contract, which doesn’t include any no-trade protection, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links).  Smith is represented by CAA Sports.

The Braves’ early splash into the free agent pool gives them the top closer on the market this offseason, and the 13th-ranked player on MLBTR’s list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.  Smith’s contract fell just a touch short of our prediction of a three-year, $42MM deal, though he stands to soundly beat that projected number if the Braves exercise their club option in three years’ time.  Smith will also now get to suit up for his hometown team, as the Georgia native still lives in Atlanta.

Will SmithThough there hadn’t yet been any official word about Smith’s rejection of the Giants’ qualifying offer, he turned down the one-year, $17.8MM QO for the longer-term pact with the Braves.  Rosenthal reports that Jeff Berry, Smith’s agent, told interested teams that Smith would accept the qualifying offer and remain in San Francisco unless an acceptable multi-year proposal came together.

2019 marked Smith’s first season as a full-time closer, and the left-hander responded with one of his finest seasons.  Smith posted a 2.76 ERA, 4.57 K/BB rate, and 13.2 K/9 over 65 1/3 innings for San Francisco, recording 34 saves in the process.  That 13.2 K/9 marks a new single-season best for Smith, who has a healthy 10.8 K/9 over 410 2/3 career innings.  The 30-year-old had previously established himself as a quality setup man with the Brewers and Giants, and came back strong with a big 2018 season after missing all of 2017 due to Tommy John surgery.

While Smith was one of the sport’s better closers last season, he might not continue in that role, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution tweets that the Braves are temporarily still planning to use Mark Melancon as their primary closer.  Ironically, Smith’s elevation to closer in 2018 came as a result of Melancon’s injury-related struggles when the two relievers were teammates in San Francisco.  Melancon did look good during a healthy 2019, however, both with the Giants and after he was dealt to Atlanta at the trade deadline.

However the Braves choose to deploy their relievers, Smith represents a major addition to an Atlanta bullpen that generally posted middle-of-the-pack numbers amidst an inconsistent season.  Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos added Melancon, Chris Martin, and Shane Greene at the trade deadline in an attempt to bolster his pen for both 2019 and the future (Melancon and Greene are still under team control), though more reinforcements were needed with Martin, Anthony Swarzak, and Jerry Blevins headed for free agency.

Smith fills a particular need for left-handed relief for the Braves, who have already checked off several boxes off their winter to-do list though the offseason only officially began less than two weeks ago.  Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers, and Darren O’Day have all been re-signed on one-year deals for a total of $10.25MM, allowing Anthopoulos the payroll space for a bigger strike to sign Smith.

There was widespread speculation that Smith was going to be changing teams last July, though the Giants’ surprising surge into wild card contention inspired president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi to hold onto some of his most prized trade assets.  While Melancon and Sam Dyson were dealt, such players as Smith, Madison Bumgarner, and Tony Watson were all retained, leaving Zaidi in line for some criticism when the Giants faded to a 77-85 record.

San Francisco will still receive some compensation for Smith, however, as his rejection of the qualifying offer will net the club a bonus draft pick that will fall between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft.  The Giants will get a pick in that same area should Bumgarner (who also declined the QO) sign elsewhere.  The extra draft capital could make Zaidi more open to surrendering a draft pick to sign a QO free agent himself, though it remains to be seen if the Giants will be big spenders this winter.

As a revenue-sharing recipient, the Braves will only have to give their third-highest pick in the 2020 draft as compensation for signing Smith.  This is currently Atlanta’s third-round selection, though it could end up being the team’s own compensatory pick (between Comp Balance Round B and the third round) if the qualifying offer-declining Josh Donaldson signs with a team besides Atlanta.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Braves Rumors: Moose, SPs, Keuchel, Catcher

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The Braves are in danger of losing one of baseball’s premier third basemen, free agent Josh Donaldson. With no obvious replacement on hand (general manager Alex Anthopoulos seems reluctant to hand the job to Austin Riley), the club figures to explore the free-agent and trade markets for hot corner help if it does see Donaldson depart. Mike Moustakas is the third-best free-agent 3B on the market, trailing Anthony Rendon and Donaldson, Atlanta is “looking at” him, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets.

Unlike Rendon and Donaldson, Moustakas isn’t going to cost a bank-breaking amount to sign. That alone makes him a decent fit for the Braves, who are more a mid-tier spender than a high-payroll club. The 31-year-old Moustakas is a free agent for the third straight offseason, and though he garnered fairly modest guarantees over the previous two winters, the former Royal and Brewer has nonetheless been quite valuable.

This past season, Moustakas slashed .254/.329/.516 with 35 home runs and 2.8 fWAR across 584 plate appearances. For the most part, those aren’t Rendon- or Donaldson-caliber numbers, but they’re plenty respectable relative to the amount Moustakas could receive this offseason. MLBTR projects Moustakas will sign for a reasonable $20MM over two years (with the Braves, in fact) – a far cry from what Rendon and Donaldson are likely to receive. And Moustakas doesn’t come with a qualifying offer attached, so signing him would not cost draft compensation.

While Moustakas does hold appeal, it seems the Braves’ goal is to re-sign Donaldson for what’s likely to be a far higher amount. According to Gabe Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Anthopoulos & Co. would “undoubtedly” like to bring back Donaldson, who was brilliant in 2019 after signing a one-year, $23MM pact with the club last winter. Anthopoulos wasn’t willing to discuss Donaldson on Tuesday, saying, “Normally I would speak on it, but I’m not going to get into free agents,” but he has made it known in recent weeks that he wants the soon-to-be 34-year-old back.

Aside from third, what other areas are the Braves aiming to bolster? Anthopoulos’ thoughts: “We have rotation needs, we can get better in the bullpen. Offensively, we’re always looking to get better. We need someone to pair with (catcher Tyler) Flowers, with Brian McCann retired. We don’t have an order, but we have so many areas that if we think there are good deals there, we’ll try to get them done.”

The rotation may well be the primary focus for Atlanta, which is lacking immediate answers besides Mike Soroka, Max Fried and Mike Foltynewicz. Dallas Keuchel gave the club 112 2/3 effective innings in 2019, but it’s “unlikely” Atlanta will re-sign the now-free agent, according to Burns. So, it seems probable the Braves will add at least one proven starter, whether it’s Madison Bumgarner (whom they’ve been connected to) or another name. Regardless, the Braves are planning to give left-hander Sean Newcomb another chance to emerge as a viable starter, per Anthopoulos (via David O’Brien of The Athletic).

In Anthopoulos’ estimation, “it makes sense for us to at least have him stretched out in spring and then go from there.” Newcomb was a highly touted starter prospect a couple years back, and he showed plenty of promise in the Braves’ rotation from 2017-18. However, the 26-year-old spent almost all of 2019 as a reliever after his control failed him over four starts.

As Anthopoulos noted, the Braves still have to figure out whom their pitchers will throw to in 2020. Flowers is coming back on a restructured deal, but McCann’s gone and Francisco Cervelli is a free agent. There are a few starting-caliber backstops in free agency in Yasmani Grandal, Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud and Robinson Chirinos, while there has been trade speculation centering on the Cubs’ Willson Contreras. But it remains to be seen whether the Braves would aim that high (Grandal could cost $60MM-plus) or settle for a backup type to pair with Flowers.

Just a few weeks removed from their second straight NL East-winning season, the Braves are clearly a team with enviable talent. But their holes are obvious at the same time, and it’ll be interesting to see how Anthopoulos addresses them this winter in an effort to get the team closer to its first World Series title since 1995.

Rangers Reportedly Making “Aggressive” Push For Josh Donaldson

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The Rangers are making “an aggressive push” to strike an early deal with free-agent third baseman Josh Donaldson, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter). Donaldson still hasn’t even had to give the Braves a formal decision on his $17.8MM qualifying offer — though he’ll surely reject it by tomorrow’s deadline. A deal of this significance in mid-November is of the utmost rarity in today’s free-agent climate. However, it’s worth pointing out that Donaldson signed his one-year deal with the Braves in late November last year, so there’s some precedent for him preferring a rather short stay on the open market.

Third base is a clear area of need for the Rangers, as young Nick Solak is likely the top option at the hot corner as things are currently constructed in Arlington. Texas certainly has the funds to reel in a free agent of Donaldson’s caliber after scaling back on payroll last winter; the Rangers have previously seen their payroll climb as high as $165MM on Opening Day 2017, but they currently project to check in around $115MM. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd pointed out in previewing the Rangers’ offseason, a match between Donaldson and Texas seems perfectly plausible and would bear some similarity to the Rangers’ run with Adrian Beltre in his mid- to late-30s.

As we detailed at MLBTR this week, signing Donaldson on the heels of a qualifying offer would cost the Rangers their second-highest draft selection next summer as well as $500K of their 2020-21 international signing bonus. Donaldson, who hit .259/.371/.521 with 37 home runs and plus defense at third base with the Braves in 2019, ranked fifth on MLBTR’s list of the offseason’s Top 50 free agents (where we predicted a three-year, $75MM deal with Texas).

The Rangers flirted with Wild Card contention in 2019 before fading late in the season and have given every indication to this point that they plan to act aggressively in advance of their move into a new stadium in 2020. General manager and president of baseball operations Jon Daniels plainly stated this week that he intended to look into top-tier free agents, so an earnest pursuit of Donaldson could be the first of many such free-agent endeavors for Texas over the next several months.

Donaldson has already drawn interest from the Dodgers, Phillies, Nationals (who likely view him as a fallback to Anthony Rendon) and Braves in the early stages of free agency. The Braves, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), have been allowing Donaldson to shop around with other clubs before engaging in their own discussion of a multi-year pact.

Latest On Market Interest In Madison Bumgarner

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Though Madison Bumgarner did not hit the open market with as much fanfare as once seemed likely, he’s still a prominent part of the landscape for starting pitching. And it appears that strong early interest is coming together for the veteran lefty.

The Phillies have “checked in” on Bumgarner, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link), who notes the potential interplay between the Phils and their division rivals from Atlanta. The Braves are known to be interested in the hurler, who grew up not far from Atlanta in Hickory, NC.

Those aren’t the only eastern seaboard teams considering Bumgarner. The Yankees also intend to reach out to MadBum’s reps, New York GM Brian Cashman tells John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Of course, Cashman has already made clear he’s interested in other, even bigger free agent fish. And he emphasized that point to Shea, stating that the Yanks will look at the full field.

That’s an important point to bear in mind more generally as we gauge early indications of market interest. With a market as full of good options as it is full of needy teams, we’re hearing of a lot of broad explorations on both sides of the balance. Teams are trying to get a sense of price tags. And there’s a balance for players and their agents as well. Most any pitcher would prefer to draw a nice run of early bidding to waiting around and hoping that demand remains strong. It’s better to be Nathan Eovaldi or Tyler Chatwood than Dallas Keuchel, generally speaking, as recent free agent experiences are concerned.

Bumgarner isn’t likely to be a market darling in the nature of Eovaldi or Chatwood. But neither is there reason to think he’ll end up facing the Keuchel conundrum. Bumgarner isn’t the monster he once was on the mound, and he now carries a notable injury history, but he just turned 30 years of age and was still capable of spinning 207 2/3 innings of 3.90 ball in 2019.

Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.

As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.

In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.

The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.

Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.

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