Odds & Ends: Towers, Randy Johnson, Arroyo
Links for Monday…
- Former GM Kevin Towers will attend the Winter Meetings and meet with three or four teams about possible employment, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Towers prefers the American League.
- Randy Johnson is undecided about pitching in 2010, say Rosenthal and Morosi.
- MLB.com's Mark Bowman tells readers in his latest mailbag that he wouldn't be surprised to see the Braves trade Jordan Schafer.
- Mike Axisa of River Ave. Blues speculates on what the Yankees would have to give up for Josh Johnson.
- ESPN's Buster Olney compares a potential Joe Mauer extension to Todd Helton's contract, in that it'd make up such a large percentage of the Twins' payroll.
- Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel discovered that a handful of teams have avoided four-year commitments to pitchers in recent years.
- Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos talked to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports about the team's strategy to beef up scouting.
- For someone who hasn't been paying attention to the hot stove, Bronson Arroyo has a reasonable take on the Reds' direction and recent Scott Rolen/Ramon Hernandez commitments (MLB.com's Mark Sheldon reporting).
- ESPN's Jerry Crasnick discusses the role of advanced defensive metrics in player acquisitions.
- MetsBlog's Matthew Cerrone notes that a very similar report surfaced in three different media outlets within a span of a few hours.
Jermaine Dye Open To First Base
Free agent Jermaine Dye is open to playing first base, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Dye's played one game at the position in '05, but teams are asking anyway. He played four games at first in Triple A back in '98.
The FOX writers speculate that Dye could make sense at first base for the Braves, Mets, Giants, and Orioles. Getting Dye out of right field would certainly improve his value. He's been quite bad for at least four years, and that's a sample of nearly 5,000 innings.
Potential Braves Targets
David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution sums up players on the Braves' radar as they attempt to augment their offense. Most of these names have already leaked out in stray rumors: Mark DeRosa, Josh Willingham, Mike Cameron, and Jermaine Dye. Carl Crawford is also on the Braves' wish list, as we learned yesterday from Joe Smith of the St. Petersburg Times. In a more speculative sense, O'Brien adds that Xavier Nady and Marlon Byrd "could be possibilities."
For the sake of argument, if it came down to these seven hitters, which would you prefer? Using Bill James projections and the wOBA stat, Willingham comes out on top offensively for 2010. We learned recently that the Braves face competition from the Cardinals for Willingham, though Atlanta may have concerns about the player's defense.
Elsewhere in the O'Brien article, Scott Boras extols the virtues of free agent reliever Mike Gonzalez. To hear Boras tell it, about half the teams in baseball are eyeing his new client. Gonzalez figures to come with a draft pick cost attached, as O'Brien expects the Braves to offer arbitration a week from now when that deadline arrives.
Cubs Unlikely To Land Halladay
Although the Cubs would "love" to pull off a deal for Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay, they are unlikely to do so as they lack the necessary room in payroll, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports.
The Cubbies have a combined $42.375MM committed to pitchers Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Ryan Dempster. They would have a hard time finding a taker for Alfonso Soriano as he is owed $18MM per year for the next five years. Same goes for Kosuke Fukudome, who is due to make $26.5MM over the next two seasons. Aramis Ramirez is a hefty contract that could be moved, but as Rosenthal and Morosi point out, he's probably too valuable for the Cubs to trade.
Derrek Lee will make $13MM in the final year of his contract and could be a match for the Braves, however Atlanta would likely need to find a taker for a big contract (i.e. Derek Lowe) first.
Therefore, it appears that GM Jim Hendry's winter plans will center around finding a new home for Milton Bradley and acquiring a new center fielder. Interestingly, the post floats the possibility of a three-way deal involving Bradley to net Mets second baseman Luis Castillo.
It seems as though Hendry has quite a few obstacles in his way if he hopes to swing a deal for Doc. Would you be willing to make all of the moves necessary to create the space needed for such a trade? What would it take for the Cubs to pry Halladay from the Blue Jays? Let's hear your thoughts in the comments section.
Rays Rumors: Crawford, Upton, Zaun
Joe Smith of the St. Petersburg Times has the latest on the Rays' offseason plans. The highlights:
- The Rays are said to be interested in discussing a long-term extension with Carl Crawford. If the team does decide to move him, however, the Mets and Braves have expressed interest.
- The Rangers and White Sox are among the teams interested in acquiring B.J. Upton.
- Executive VP Andrew Friedman on his team's offseason targets: "We have a list of guys on other teams we have an interest in, and a list of free agents as well. And depending on how the market evolves on both fronts, it will go a long way toward shaping our thought process…. We feel like there are a lot of talented names out there."
- Smith notes that the Rays have a history of signing relievers who are coming off injuries or down years. He mentions Kevin Gregg and J.J. Putz as a couple of possibilities in that realm.
- The club could be open to bringing back Gregg Zaun and giving last season's catching platoon of Zaun and Dioner Navarro another try.
Cafardo On Lackey, Sheffield, Pavano
In his usual Sunday morning column for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo passes on some hot stove talk from around the majors. Let's check out the highlights….
- The fate of John Lackey could potentially affect the offseason plans of each of the AL East powers. Both the Yankees and Red Sox have interest, and Cafardo suggests that landing Lackey would allow the Red Sox to turn around and move Clay Buchholz in a deal for a coveted bat, like Adrian Gonzalez.
- Cafardo relays this quote from an AL GM: "The Red Sox could be the major player this offseason if certain things fall together for them. They still have enough chips in their farm system to make something big happen."
- The Yankees, meanwhile, appear willing to part with Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain in the hunt for Roy Halladay, though they'd like to hang on to Austin Jackson.
- Gary Sheffield will return in 2010 and has softened his stance on DHing since his Tigers days. He now says he'd accept a DH role, though he'd still like to play in the field occasionally. Cafardo names a handful of teams that could find a spot for Sheffield, noting that the 41-year-old would love to return to Atlanta or play in his hometown of Tampa Bay.
- The Twins and Brewers are "very interested" in Carl Pavano.
- The Brewers could also be players for John Smoltz, though the Cardinals would like to bring him back.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Wood, Sheets, Bradley, Wagner
On this date two years ago, Mike Lowell re-signed with the Red Sox for three-years, $37.5MM. In this first two years of the deal, Lowell has taken in $25.5MM, and according to his WAR has been worth $19.9MM. In '10, Lowell will be 36 as he enters the final year of his deal. Today is the first day of free agency, let's take a look at what is being written in the Blogosphere…
- Howard Megdal and Chris Pummer of The Perpetual Post debate the Oliver Perez and Derek Lowe signings of a year ago.
- The Ghost of Moonlight Graham looks which teams might be interested in trading for Kerry Wood.
- Jorge Says No! look at which teams might be a good fit for Ben Sheets, with eight teams that could be in the hunt.
- The Sports Banter ranks the top free agents.
- MetsCitiBlog doesn't see the Mets signing Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, and feels they should set their sights on Adrian Gonzalez.
- UmpBump is running a series on what each team needs this off-season. Here is the Giants.
- Bleacher Nation wonders why the Braves aren't rumored to be in on the Milton Bradley sweepstakes.
- Baseball Time In Arlington thinks there should be plenty of money in the budget to bring back Bradley.
- 10 Scoreless projects the Twins' roster for next season.
- MLB Notebook looks at what it would take for the Mariners to compete next season.
- The Pinstriper makes some free agent predictions, with Billy Wagner ending up with the Rays.
- River Ave Blues breaks down what Hideki Matsui is worth to the Yankees.
- Sox and Pinstripes discusses the ramifications of a salary cap in baseball from the point of view of a Yankees fan.
Cork Gaines writes for RaysIndex.com. If you have a suggestion for this feature, Cork can be reached here, and followed on Twitter here.
Discussion: Derek Lowe’s Value
Braves righty Derek Lowe makes for an interesting discussion topic. Lowe is owed $45MM over the next three years, and is widely known to be on the trading block. The Braves seem unwilling to eat significant salary. There are arguments on both sides of the fence as to Lowe's value.
On one side we've got Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports saying the Braves are finding Lowe difficult to trade. The financial commitment is significant, and I must note that Lowe's strikeout, walk, and groundball rates moved in the wrong direction this year. I think the free agent market offers plenty of mid-rotation options at one year and less than $10MM.
How about the other side? In that same Rosenthal piece, he writes that the Braves feel that if Lowe were a free agent, only John Lackey would be in higher demand among starters. And maybe Lowe at 3/45 is better than Lackey at 5/80 (or whatever).
Other pro-Lowe points from MLB.com's Mark Bowman: he took pressure off the other Braves' starters, he's durable, and he had a 3.88 ERA this year if you subtract his worst three starts. (In fairness, we can play that game with anyone – Jon Garland's ERA drops from 4.01 to 3.24 if we remove his worst three). Frankie Piliere of AOL FanHouse sides with Bowman, saying, "Don't expect teams to be any less impressed with Lowe than they were when he was free agent last offseason." And while I pointed out that Lowe's numbers declined this year, it should also be noted that his .333 BABIP and subsequent 232 hits allowed might be a reflection of the Braves' shaky infield defense aside from Yunel Escobar. Plus, one year isn't a big sample.
The bottom line for me is that Lowe certainly has value as a pitcher, but he's also overpaid in this market. What's your take?
Braves Looking For Lowe Suitors
6:36pm: MLB.com's Mark Bowman responds to Rosenthal's report, writing that even though they view the Brewers as a potential trade partner, the Braves aren't interested in Hart. If Atlanta were to work out a deal with the Brewers or Angels, Bowman thinks they might be more likely to trade for prospects than a major-league outfielder.
5:58pm: The Atlanta Braves are shopping Derek Lowe, but not having much success so far, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
Rosenthal suggests that Lowe's contract situation (he'll make $15MM in each of the next three years) and his 2009 struggles (4.67 ERA in 34 starts) are discouraging teams' interest in the right-hander. The Braves, however, are still optimistic, believing that John Lackey is the only free agent starter on this year's market more appealing than the 36-year-old Lowe.
Rosenthal names the Angels and White Sox as potential trade partners. According to his sources though, the most serious discussions the Braves have had about Lowe were with the Milwaukee Brewers, involving Corey Hart. It doesn't sound like those talks are necessarily dead, but the Brewers would expect Atlanta to take on a large chunk of Lowe's salary, and even then aren't entirely sure they'd want him.
Stark On Bradley, Uggla, Yankees, Braves, Pedro
ESPN.com's Jayson Stark responds to some of Scott Boras' recent comments before providing some rumors in his latest Rumblings and Grumblings column:
- The Rays, Rangers and Jays appear to be the three likeliest landing spots for Milton Bradley. The Cubs say they don't want to eat much of the $21MM remaining on Bradley's contract, so a bad contract swap still seems possible.
- Stark hears that the Marlins were in serious trade talks with the Giants and Rangers about Dan Uggla.
- There's no indication that the Yankees are in on Jason Bay or Matt Holliday at this point. The Yanks figure to negotiate firmly with Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui.
- The Braves would like to trade for a cleanup-hitter and are expected to try to extend Javier Vazquez if they can move Derek Lowe and his contract.
- The Phillies don't appear to have a preference at third base, though they're said to be considering Placido Polanco, Mark DeRosa and Adrian Beltre.
- At least two executives believe Pedro Martinez fits best as a half-year starter next season.