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Latest On Marlins’ Free Agent, Trade Possibilities

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The Marlins have shown interest in free agent starter Johnny Cueto, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Miami joins the Blue Jays and Reds as clubs known to have touched base with the veteran righty’s camp.

Miami’s an odd fit for a rotation pickup. They’re already deep in starting pitching, with Trevor Rogers, Pablo López, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett and Jesús Luzardo on hand as options behind Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara. There’s enough talent on the pitching staff the Fish have apparently looked for ways to swap out a starter for offensive help this offseason, though nothing has come together on that front.

Any interest in Cueto would seem to be contingent on dealing one of their current starters. He’s sure to find a rotation spot somewhere after a solid 2022 season in Chicago. The 36-year-old (37 in February) made 25 appearances and threw 158 1/3 innings this past season. Cueto posted a 3.35 ERA, based largely on his plus control. He only walked around 5% of opponents, maintaining the quality strike-throwing ability he’s shown throughout his career. He struck out a below-average 15.7% of batters faced while averaging just above 91 MPH, but his pitch-to-contact approach served him well this year.

That solid showing is likely to earn him a raise over this past season’s $4MM base salary. A pitcher-friendly home ballpark would be a particularly strong fit. Cueto has shown himself capable of succeeding in the hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field (to say nothing of his run of high-end play early in his career with Cincinnati), but he saw just 7.7% of fly balls surrendered clear the fences this year. He’s unlikely to replicate a rate that extreme, but a more spacious park could help mitigate the effect of any regression in that department.

Marlins Park certainly qualifies, though there’s no room in the Opening Day rotation for Cueto at present. Morosi suggests an earnest free agent pursuit may be more of a fallback possibility in the event they align with another club on a López trade. There haven’t been many substantive rumors on the righty this offseason, though reports have suggested Miami would consider trades of anyone other than Alcantara or top prospect Eury Pérez. Teams like the Dodgers and Yankees were linked to López at this past summer’s trade deadline. New York has since acquired Frankie Montas and signed Carlos Rodón, but the Dodgers still make sense as a speculative fit for a rotation addition.

As part of a reader mailbag, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes that the Rockies have shown modest interest in López but don’t seem to be heavily pursuing him. Colorado entered the offseason seeking starting pitching help. They’ve yet to make any acquisitions of note outside of the bullpen. Yet Saunders suggests that López’s remaining two seasons of arbitration control may not align with the Rox’s target, as they’re facing an uphill battle to compete for a playoff spot in the next couple years.

Other teams with a more immediate path to contention figure to show stronger interest in the 26-year-old hurler. Dealing López would be one way to add to a lineup that was among the league’s worst in 2022, though the Marlins could also dip into the lower tiers of free agency in that regard. Craig Mish of SportsGrid reported last night (Twitter link) that Miami had shown interest in Brandon Drury, but the righty-hitting infielder instead agreed to terms on a $17MM deal with the Angels.

Angels Sign Jake Lamb, Jhonathan Diaz To Minor League Deals

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The Angels are signing infielder Jake Lamb to a minor league contract, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Lamb’s deal would come with a $1.25MM base salary if he cracks the major league roster, reports Sam Blum of the Athletic (on Twitter). Blum adds that Lamb would be able to opt out of the deal if he’s not in the majors by July 1.

Lamb is hoping to reach the MLB level for a tenth straight year in 2023. The left-handed hitter was an everyday third baseman with the Diamondbacks for a few seasons, combining for 59 home runs between 2016-17. Things went downhill after he sustained a shoulder injury that required surgery, however, and he’s worked more as a journeyman in recent years.

Over the past three seasons, Lamb has appeared at the major league level with six different clubs (Arizona, Oakland, White Sox, Toronto, Dodgers and Seattle). He split the 2022 campaign between Los Angeles and Seattle, going to the Mariners in a deadline trade. Lamb combined for a .216/.315/.392 line in 111 MLB plate appearances between the two clubs. He struck out in a massive 34.2% of plate appearances but walked at a quality 9.9% clip while picking up three homers and six doubles.

Lamb had started well in Los Angeles but tailed off upon landing in the Pacific Northwest, and the Mariners designated him for assignment in September. He cleared waivers, reached minor league free agency and finished the season unsigned. Now 32, he’ll look to get back to the highest level as a lefty bench bat in Orange County. Lamb broke into the majors as a third baseman but has seen increasing action at first base and in the corner outfield in recent years. He’s a bat-first depth option, one who had an impressive .290/.395/.537 showing in 61 Triple-A games in the Dodgers organization this year.

The Halos also recently inked left-hander Jhonathan Diaz to a minor league contract, according to Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. The 26-year-old returns to the organization where he’s spent the past two years. Signed to a non-roster deal over the 2020-21 offseason, Diaz made the majors late in the ’21 campaign. He pitched three times for the Halos that year and logged four more appearances this past season. At year’s end, the Angels opted not to tender him a contract. That sent him directly to free agency without first exposing him to waivers, and the Halos quickly circled back to ink him to a new minor league pact that didn’t require a 40-man spot.

Diaz has a 3.49 ERA in 28 1/3 MLB innings to date. He’s started five of seven outings, inducing grounders at a solid 47.1% clip but not managing impressive strikeout or walk rates. Diaz has only fanned 16% of opponents while averaging 91.4 MPH on his fastball. He’d succeeded more on the strength of his control in the minors, though he’s walked 13.6% of MLB batters faced. He’ll presumably return to Salt Lake, where he has a 4.76 ERA over the last two years, as rotation depth.

Yankees Designate Lucas Luetge For Assignment

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The Yankees announced they’ve designated reliever Lucas Luetge for assignment. The move creates a 40-man roster spot for Tommy Kahnle, who has officially signed a two-year free agent deal.

It’s a relatively surprising decision, as Luetge is coming off a strong two-year run in the New York bullpen. The southpaw returned to the majors in 2021 for the first time in six years. Signed to a minor league deal over the 2020-21 offseason, he broke camp with the MLB club that season. Luetge held his bullpen spot all year and posted a 2.74 ERA over 72 1/3 innings. He struck out an above-average 25.9% of batters faced with a sterling 5% walk rate, holding left-handed hitters to a dreadful .196/.204/.315 line in the process.

Luetge’s 2022 campaign wasn’t quite at that level, but he managed another productive year. He was called upon 50 times and put up a 2.67 ERA across 57 1/3 frames. The 35-year-old punched out 23.9% of opponents against a 6.8% walk percentage. Lefties managed a more respectable .269/.359/.333 showing off him this time around, largely thanks to an uptick in free passes.

Nevertheless, Luetge generally handled himself well when tabbed by skipper Aaron Boone. Over his time in pinstripes, he put together a 2.71 ERA through 129 2/3 frames. He avoided the injured list in both seasons, struck out a quarter of his opponents and walked less than 6% of batters faced. Luetge held opponents to a .255/.307/.371 slash in 552 plate appearances. He missed bats on over 12% of his offerings in both seasons and was particularly adept at staying off barrels. Only 23.5% of batted balls against him this past season were hit hard, per Statcast; that’s the lowest rate of any qualified pitcher in the game.

While Luetge was consistently productive, he never quite worked his way up the bullpen hierarchy in the Bronx. New York relied upon Wandy Peralta in higher-leverage situations, and Luetge was a healthy scratch in this year’s American League Championship Series. Peralta generates more ground-balls and throws in the mid-90s, while Luetge has succeeded on guile and movement — primarily turning to a cutter that averaged just 87.6 MPH this year.

As New York stockpiles power arms in the bullpen, Luetge was squeezed out of the picture. There’s a good chance he finds another landing spot in the next few days, with the Yankees having a week to trade him or put him on waivers. Luetge is eligible for arbitration through the end of the 2024 season; he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $1.7MM salary next year. That’s a reasonable price for a productive lefty bullpen arm, and teams like the Cardinals, Astros, Cubs and Guardians could check in with New York general manager Brian Cashman about the possibility of a minor trade.

A’s Sign Drew Rucinski

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December 21: The A’s made it official today, announcing the signing.

December 20: The A’s are in agreement with starter Drew Rucinski, pending a physical. It’s reportedly a one-year, $3MM guarantee for the Paragon Sports International client. The deal also contains a $5MM club option for the 2024 season.

Rucinski returns to the U.S. after four seasons in South Korea. The 6’2″ righty kicked around the majors in the middle of the last decade as a swing option. While Rucinski worked as a starter in the minors, he came out of the bullpen for six of seven appearances with the Angels in 2014-15. Rucisnki spent the next year in Triple-A with the Cubs organization before spending two years as a depth reliever. He pitched twice for the Twins in 2017 and logged 35 1/3 innings over 32 relief appearances for the Marlins the next season.

That marked a career-high workload for the Ohio State product, and he made the jump to the Korea Baseball Organization the next offseason. Rucinski landed with the NC Dinos, kicking off a four-year run in which he’d work as a durable innings eater. The righty started 30-plus games in all four of his KBO seasons, pitching at least 177 1/3 innings in each year. Rucinski was consistent and very effective, posting an ERA between 2.97 and 3.17 in every season.

Rucinski only struck out 16.8% of his opponents during his debut season, but he topped a 20% strikeout rate in each of the next three years. Rucinski topped out at a 24.3% strikeout percentage in 2022, while this year’s 2.97 ERA over 193 2/3 innings marked his lowest with the Dinos. He threw plenty of strikes, walking just 4.3% of batters faced this year. Rucinski also induced grounders on two-thirds of batted balls in each of the last three years, with those dominant numbers earning him another MLB look.

MLBTR placed Rucinski 50th on this offseason’s top free agent list. His one-year pact falls short of MLBTR’s projected two-year, $9MM guarantee. Pitchers like Chris Flexen and Merrill Kelly secured two-year contracts coming over from the KBO, but Rucinski’s age apparently limited him to one year. He’ll turn 34 next week, while Flexen and Kelly each returned to the U.S. before their 31st birthday.

It’s a low-cost flier for the A’s, whose spacious home park figures to play well for a pitch-to-contact arm of Rucinski’s ilk. Cole Irvin and Paul Blackburn look to have secured season-opening rotation spots alongside Rucinski, while players like James Kaprielian, Ken Waldichuk, Adam Oller and Adrián Martínez could battle for spots at the back end. Oakland GM David Forst and his staff could still look to augment that group, even in another rebuilding season.

The A’s still have just $54MM in projected 2023 payroll, per Roster Resource. They’ve added Jace Peterson and Aledmys Díaz on lower-cost two-year deals, while Trevor May, Rucinski and Manny Piña (in the Sean Murphy trade) have been brought aboard with one-year commitments.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported Rucisnki was in agreement with the A’s. Jon Heyman of the New York Post was first to report it was a one-year, $3MM guarantee with a $5MM club option.

Yankees Sign Carlos Rodon To Six-Year Deal

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December 21: The Yankees have officially announced the signing.

December 15: The best remaining free agent starter is headed to the Bronx. The Yankees are reportedly in agreement on a six-year, $162MM contract with Carlos Rodón. The Boras Corporation client will receive a $5MM signing bonus and a $22MM salary next season followed by successive $27MM salaries from 2024-28. The deal contains a full no-trade clause and runs through Rodón’s age-35 season.

New York pairs the addition with their record-setting deal for defending AL MVP Aaron Judge as part of a huge offseason. The guarantee ties that of Brandon Nimmo for the sixth-largest deal of the offseason. Rodón will finish with the second-largest guarantee among free agent pitchers, narrowly behind the five-year, $185MM pact Jacob deGrom inked with the Rangers.

It’s the culmination of an incredible two-season run. The left-hander entered the professional ranks eight years ago, selected by the White Sox with the third overall pick in the 2014 draft. Owner of a mid-90s fastball and a wipeout slider, he was regarded as a potential top-of-the-rotation starter who’d quickly reach the big leagues. Rodón indeed found himself on Chicago’s south side by the middle of the 2015 campaign, and he posted a 3.90 ERA in 304 1/3 innings through the end of the following season.

Unfortunately, the Miami native’s career was then sidetracked by injuries. Rodón lost a chunk of the 2017 campaign to biceps bursitis, then underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery that September. He didn’t debut until June the following year, making 20 starts. Early the next season, Rodón was diagnosed with an elbow issue. He went back under the knife in May ’19, this time undergoing a Tommy John procedure. He missed the remainder of that year, returning at the tail end of the 2020 campaign for four appearances.

The mounting injury troubles led the White Sox to decline to tender him a contract heading into 2021. Chicago circled back towards the end of the offseason, bringing him back on a $3MM free agent deal. That move was met with a fair amount of criticism, but it turned into one of the best decisions of GM Rick Hahn’s tenure.

Rodón was brilliant in 2021, earning his first All-Star nod with a 2.31 ERA over 89 2/3 first-half innings. He looked on his way to a Cy Young award when he dealt with some shoulder fatigue in August. Rodón only missed a couple weeks and continued to pitch well upon his return, although his velocity dropped towards season’s end. The southpaw concluded the year with a 2.37 ERA and a massive 34.6% strikeout percentage across 132 2/3 innings. He placed fifth in Cy Young balloting.

The end-of-year shoulder issue and velocity dip seemed to scare the Chicago front office, however. They made the eyebrow-raising decision not to issue Rodón a qualifying offer, allowing him to hit the open market without draft compensation attached. He remained a free agent until after the lockout, when the Giants added him on a two-year, $44MM guarantee. The deal contained an opt-out clause after year one, conditional on Rodón reaching 110 innings pitched in 2022. It was an opportunity for the star hurler to bet on himself, knowing a nine-figure deal could be in the cards if he maintained his 2021 form over a full, healthy season.

Rodón did exactly that, doubling down with perhaps the best season of his career. He stayed healthy all year, making 31 starts and tallying a personal-high 178 innings. Rodón worked to a sterling 2.88 ERA. He earned a second straight All-Star nod and was among the game’s best at missing bats. Rodón fanned 33.4% of opponents against a solid 7.3% walk rate. Among pitchers with 100+ innings, only Braves rookier Spencer Strider bested that strikeout percentage. Strider, Shohei Ohtani, Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole were the only pitchers with a larger gap between their strikeout and walk rates.

Almost as importantly, Rodón’s arsenal showed no ill effects after his 2021 dip. His fastball averaged a strong 95.5 MPH, making him one of the game’s harder-throwing lefty pitchers. He generated high-end spin and whiff rates on both his fastball and slider, and opposing hitters swung through a massive 14.1% of his total pitches. Rodón stifled batters from both sides of the plate; he held lefties to a .179/.257/.260 line, while hitters with the platoon advantage put together just a .207/.264/.319 mark.

A second season of elite performance, this one without any health scares, cemented the 30-year-old as one of the sport’s top pitchers. His career took a more winding road than expected when he was drafted, but Rodón has developed into a top-of-the-rotation starter. He made the easy decision to opt out of his deal with San Francisco after topping the necessary innings threshold, and he quickly turned down a qualifying offer.

It now looks like a potentially elite Yankee rotation. New York watched Jameson Taillon depart but upgrades with the Rodón addition. He and Cole are co-aces, backed up by breakout hurler Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas. The latter two have had some injury concerns in recent seasons, but they’re overqualified as fourth and fifth starters if healthy. Domingo Germán, Clarke Schmidt and prospect Randy Vasquez are on hand as depth options who could step in if any of the top five get injured.

Rodón was one of three aces available in free agency, jointing deGrom and Justin Verlander. As the youngest of that trio, he always looked likely to secure the longest deal. The six-year term will be the longest for any pitcher this winter, although deGrom’s five-year contract and the stronger than expected market for mid-tier starters led to rumors Rodón’s camp was seeking a seven-year pact that’d push past $200MM. He falls well shy of that lofty hope, but the six-year, $162MM commitment is still quite strong for a pitcher.

It’s the first six-year commitment for a free agent pitcher since Cole and Stephen Strasburg pushed to nine and seven years, respectively, over the 2019-20 offseason. Patrick Corbin ($140MM) and Yu Darvish ($120MM) are the only other open market hurlers to reach six years since the start of the 2016 campaign. At the start of this offseason, MLBTR forecasted Rodón for a five-year, $140MM pact.

The cost for New York goes beyond the salary they’ll owe, as the deal pushes them even further into luxury tax territory. The Yankees were already set to pay the competitive balance tax, and adding Rodón pushes them towards the top tier of penalization. The contract comes with a $27MM average annual value, bringing New York’s CBT figure within a rounding error of the $293MM mark, according to Roster Resource. That’s the cutoff for the fourth CBT tier and places them around $60MM north of the $233MM base threshold.

New York also paid the luxury tax in 2022, so they’ll be subject to heightened penalties as a repeat payor. The Yankees will pay a 30% tax on their first $20MM in overages ($6MM), 42% on their next $20MM ($8.4MM), 75% on the next $20MM ($15MM) and 90% on every dollar spent above $293MM. Signing Rodón pushes them firmly to the top of the third threshold, essentially tacking on around $18MM in taxes. The $27MM salary will bring their raw payroll total around $277MM, which’ll easily be a franchise record.

Going past the third threshold will also push the Yankees first draft choice in 2024 down ten spots. Meanwhile, signing a player who’d turned down a qualifying offer will have a significant impact on their 2023 draft. New York is subject to the highest penalties as a team that paid the CBT this year. They’ll lose their second and fifth-highest selection in next summer’s amateur draft, while their international bonus allotment will drop by $1MM.

The Giants will receive compensation for Rodón’s departure. As a team that neither received revenue sharing payments nor paid the CBT this year, they’ll pick up a bonus selection between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of third round (typically around 75th overall) in next year’s draft. San Francisco had seemingly prepared for Rodón’s departure from the roster by making a pair of their preferred shorter-term rotation additions, bringing aboard Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling on two-year guarantees.

With Ródon off the board, Dansby Swanson is the last remaining free agent who’s likely to find a nine-figure deal. The free agent rotation market has mostly been covered at the top end, with Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, Johnny Cueto, Corey Kluber and Drew Rucinski standing as some of the top options still available. Needless to say, none of that group has the kind of upside Rodón does. It’s a bold bet from the Yankees, one they hope adds an impact arm to their playoff rotation as they look to advance past the AL Championship Series for the first time since 2009.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported Rodón and the Yankees had agreed to a six-year, $162MM deal that contained a full no-trade clause. Bob Nightengale of USA Today was first to report the specific financial breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

A’s Sign Jake Fishman, Deolis Guerra To Minor League Deals

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The A’s announced a number of non-roster invitations to Spring Training this afternoon. Among those invited to camp were relievers Jake Fishman and Deolis Guerra, indicating both recently joined the organization on minor league deals. Oakland also signed first baseman Kevin Cron.

Fishman reached the big leagues for the first time with the Marlins in 2022. The southpaw had a few separate stints with Miami and made seven appearances altogether. He tallied 11 innings, allowing five runs while striking out six and issuing three walks. The sinkerballer averaged only 87.5 MPH on his fastball and under 76 MPH on his slider, but he had a nice year in Triple-A.

Through 56 appearances with Miami’s top affiliate, Fishman posted a 2.25 ERA. He induced grounders at an excellent 54.2% clip and struck out a serviceable 23.1% of opponents. The Union College product walked 8.5% of batters faced in the minors, and he held same-handed hitters to an awful .191/.270/.270 line across 142 plate appearances in Triple-A. Despite that strong showing, he was outrighted off Miami’s 40-man roster at the end of the end of the season and qualified for free agency. Also a former member of the Blue Jays organization, Fishman will compete for a situational role similar to the one already held by Sam Moll in Oakland.

Guerra is a familiar face for Oakland fans. The 33-year-old was second on the team in relief innings in 2021, soaking up 65 2/3 frames across 53 outings. He had a solid if unremarkable year, posting a 4.11 ERA while putting up roughly average strikeout and walk rates (23% and 7.4%, respectively). A veteran journeyman who’d previously suited up for the Pirates, Angels, Brewers and Phillies at the MLB level, Guerra looked to have carved out a multi-year role in the Oakland bullpen.

That was thrown off track before the 2022 season even began, however. Guerra battled some elbow pain in Spring Training, and he underwent Tommy John surgery a week into the regular season. He spent the whole year on the injured list and was non-tendered at the end of the season. While the A’s weren’t prepared to carry him on the 40-man roster all winter after a lost season, they quickly brought him back with a chance to earn a spot yet again. Given the mid-April timing of his surgery, it’s unlikely Guerra will be ready to take the mound in exhibition play. He’ll presumably start the year on the minor league injured list and head to Triple-A Las Vegas after he completes his rehab and builds back to game shape.

Cron, 30 in February, played in 47 games with the Diamondbacks from 2019-20. The right-handed hitter didn’t perform well in that very limited look, but he has mashed at a .319/.405/.651 clip in just over 800 career Triple-A plate appearances (albeit in an extremely favorable environment in Reno). Those monster numbers earned Cron looks in both Japan and South Korea over the past two years, though he didn’t fare especially well at either stop. He hit .231/.270/.431 with NPB’s Hiroshima Carp in 2021 and posted a .222/.255/.420 mark through 259 trips to the plate with the KBO’s SSG Landers this year.

Also included in the list of non-roster invitees are outfielder Cody Thomas and infielder Ernie Clement. Both had been designated for assignment in recent days but apparently went unclaimed on waivers and remained in the organization on outright assignments. Thomas debuted with 10 MLB games this past season, while Clement hit .184/.243/.209 in 70 combined contests between the Guardians and A’s in 2022.

Oakland further announced that infielder Vimael Machín declined an outright assignment after going unclaimed on waivers. He’ll head to minor league free agency, as is his right as a player who has been outrighted multiple times in his career. The lefty-hitting infielder posted a .220/.300/.287 line with one homer through 253 plate appearances this past season. He hasn’t done much at the plate in parts of three big league campaigns. Owner of a far more impressive .307/.400/.468 line through parts of four Triple-A seasons, Machín figures to find a minor league opportunity elsewhere.

Mets Showing Trade Interest In Liam Hendriks

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The Mets are among the clubs that have contacted the White Sox regarding Liam Hendriks, reports Michael Mayer of Metsmerized (Twitter link). Reports emerged a couple weeks ago that Chicago had been discussing their star closer with other teams, though the identity of those clubs wasn’t clear.

Certainly, the Mets aren’t the only team that’d be interested in prying Hendriks from Chicago. The 33-year-old is one of the sport’s top late-game weapons. Hendriks broke out with the A’s in 2019, tossing 85 frames with a 1.80 ERA to secure his first All-Star selection. He’d surely have earned another had there been a Midsummer Classic in 2020, as he finished ninth in AL Cy Young balloting during the abbreviated season thanks to a 1.78 mark through 25 1/3 frames.

After that season, the right-hander made the move to Chicago. Hendriks inked a $54MM guarantee with the White Sox, with Chicago gambling he’d maintain his late-career breakout form. He’s done just that, posting a 2.66 ERA over 127 frames with the Sox. After posting a 2.54 ERA in year one, he followed up with a 2.81 mark through 57 2/3 innings this past season. Hendriks earned All-Star selections in both seasons and struck out an excellent 36.2% of batters faced in 2022. He missed a few weeks in the middle of the year with a forearm strain — an alarming-sounding diagnosis for a pitcher — but he returned seemingly no worse for wear, striking out 35.4% of opponents while sitting north of 97 MPH on his heater in the second half.

Any contender looking for bullpen help could check in with Chicago general manager Rick Hahn. Hendriks would be an impact addition to the late innings for any club, and the Mets are no exception. New York has one of the handful of relievers who might be better than Hendriks to pitch the ninth inning after re-signing Edwin Díaz to a five-year free agent contract. They agreed to terms with Adam Ottavino on a two-year deal this afternoon, and they’ve also brought in David Robertson from outside the organization. The Mets don’t necessarily need more bullpen help, but they’ve shown no qualms about going after high-end talent no matter the cost.

That’s reflected in their astronomical spending, the likes of which MLB has never seen before. New York has a 2023 player payroll projected by Roster Resource around $351MM. Their luxury tax number sits around $363MM, a staggering $130MM higher than next year’s base tax threshold. That lines them up for a projected tax bill of $92.4MM, which would put their total player spending around $443.4MM.

Additional pickups would obviously add to that figure. Hendriks is guaranteed $14MM in 2023, and his contract contains a $15MM club option for the ’24 season. That comes with a matching $15MM buyout, which would be distributed in $1.5MM installments through 2033. That’d be a small benefit, but the only incentive for the White Sox not to exercise the option would be if Hendriks suffers an injury that takes him out of action for most or all of the 2024 campaign or has such a dramatic drop in performance his spot on the roster would be in jeopardy.

If Hendriks is traded, that option vests. Hendriks would then be guaranteed $29MM over the next two seasons. Matt Gelb of the Athletic has previously reported that under the new CBA, for luxury tax purposes, traded players on multi-year contracts see the average annual value of their deal recalculated at the time of the trade. In Hendriks’ case, he’d be pegged at $29MM over two years — a $14.5MM AAV for an acquiring team. If not traded, his deal counts for $18MM against the White Sox’s tax ledger in 2023, as it was technically a three-year, $54MM guarantee at signing.

For the Mets, taking on a $14.5MM AAV would come with an additional $13.05MM in taxes, as they’re taxed at a 90% clip on all future spending. Topping $27MM in actual money annually for a reliever is something virtually no other team would do, but New York seemingly can’t be counted out of any move at this point.

Of course, there’s no indication the Mets and White Sox have made much or any progress. To this point, the exercise is mostly theoretical. New York would face plenty of competition if the Sox commit to moving Hendriks, who’s better than any available free agent reliever. Chicago could certainly elect to hang onto him entirely, since they’re working to rebound from an 81-81 showing to compete in the AL Central. The White Sox agreed to terms with Andrew Benintendi on a five-year, $75MM deal last week. If his salaries are evenly distributed, that’d push their projected payroll to $193MM, which would be right in line with this past season’s franchise-record mark.

Brian O’Grady Signs With KBO’s Hanwha Eagles

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Brian O’Grady has signed with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization, tweets C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic. It’s a deal for up to $900K, with $700K in salary and $200K in incentives, according to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News (Twitter link).

O’Grady got brief looks in the big leagues each season from 2019-21. A former Reds draftee, he played in the Cincinnati system for a half-decade and earned an MLB debut with the Reds in ’19. O’Grady appeared in 28 contests for Cincinnati before being dealt to the Rays the following offseason. The lefty-hitting corner outfielder suited up just twice with Tampa Bay in the shortened 2020 campaign and was outrighted off the roster over the 2020-21 winter. He signed an MLB contract with the Padres and suited up a personal-high 32 times for the Friars the next season.

Between the three clubs, O’Grady managed just a .184/.283/.388 line in 114 MLB plate appearances. He’d hit at an excellent .284/.362/.551 clip through parts of three Triple-A campaigns, though, and that strong upper minors work caught the attention of evaluators in Japan. The Rutgers product inked a deal with the Seibu Lions in Nippon Professional Baseball last offseason. He tallied 465 trips to the plate but didn’t perform as the club had hoped offensively, putting up a .213/.312/.384 line with 15 home runs. O’Grady walked at a quality 11.6% clip but struck out in 27.7% of plate appearances for the Lions.

The Eagles will take a shot on a rebound season, betting on O’Grady’s power and plate discipline. His strong minor league track record gives reason for optimism as he heads to South Korea for the first time. The Philadelphia native turns 31 in May and could eventually look for a return to the affiliated ranks if he performs well in the KBO. For now, he’ll look to help an Eagles team that went just 46-96 this year to bounce back from a last-place finish.

The Pirates’ Potential Rotation Trade Chip

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Virtually all the attention on the Pirates’ trade possibilities this offseason has centered on All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds. Extension talks hit a snag, and Reynolds requested a trade. Pittsburgh has maintained they won’t move off their lofty asking price on the 27-year-old, who’s controllable for three more seasons. They seem open to offers but have at least signaled they won’t make a deal unless blown away by the package of young talent they’d receive.

Whether Reynolds gets dealt is one of the bigger remaining storylines of the offseason, but he’s certainly not the only player on the Pittsburgh roster who could attract attention. The Bucs have stockpiled a number of veterans on one-year commitments — Ji-Man Choi, Vince Velasquez and Austin Hedges among them — who could be midseason trade candidates. Star closer David Bednar would have a ton of appeal in the unlikely event the Pirates made him available. One player who has seemingly flown under the radar in rumors is JT Brubaker, but he seems the most plausible trade candidate in Pittsburgh’s rotation.

At first glance, it looks obvious why Brubaker hasn’t been the subject of much public trade speculation. He has pitched in three big league seasons and has a 4.99 ERA through 315 2/3 innings. The righty hasn’t posted an ERA better than this past season’s 4.69 mark in any of those years. Despite pitching his home games in a very favorable park, Brubaker hasn’t managed to keep runs off the board consistently. He’s not going to be a primary target for a win-now club that feels they’re a starter away from contention.

That said, teams will obviously look beyond a pitcher’s ERA in evaluating that player, and Brubaker has shown more promise than one might surmise with a cursory glance at his Baseball Reference page. ERA estimators like FIP and SIERA have viewed the Akron product more favorably than his ERA would suggest in all three of his big league campaigns. That’s a reflection of strikeout and walk numbers that’d look right in line with what one would expect from their fourth starter.

Brubaker has struck out 23-24% of opponents in all three seasons, while he’s kept his walk percentage in the 7-8% range. Over 144 innings in 2022, the former sixth-round draftee put up a 22.8% strikeout rate that was narrowly better than the 21.6% league average for starters. He walked 8.4% of batters faced, slightly higher than the 7.5% league mark. On a pitch-for-pitch basis, Brubaker also fared reasonably. He generated swinging strikes on 11.8% of his offerings, right in line with the rate from his prior two seasons. That’s a tick better than the 10.7% league figure.

It’s a fairly similar story from a batted ball perspective. Brubaker’s 44% grounder rate is fine, marginally better than par. Even his pitches themselves seem almost exactly average. His sinker checked in at 93.1 MPH this past season, which is middle-of-the-pack. Brubaker’s mid-80s slider is the highlight of his arsenal, a quality swing-and-miss pitch he uses with frequency against same-handed hitters. That’s his go-to offering once he gets ahead in the count against righties, and it has been effective at finishing off opponents when he needs a strikeout.

While Brubaker’s strikeout/walk profile is solid, his run prevention has yet to match up. That’s not entirely poor luck, as he’s given up a decent amount of hard contact. Left-handed hitters have given him real trouble, which isn’t especially surprising for a sinker-slider specialist who doesn’t regularly feature a changeup in his arsenal. Brubaker doesn’t have a great weapon to stay off barrels against lefty hitters, and they hit him hard in 2022. Over 298 plate appearances, opposing southpaws put a .269/.339/.481 line. While Brubaker induced grounders on over half his batted balls against right-handed opponents, lefties got the ball in the air roughly 65% of the time. Despite facing 50 more right-handed hitters on the season, he allowed three more homers to left-handed batters.

That’s a legitimate concern, and that contact profile partially explains the gap between his 4.99 career ERA and the more favorable marks from FIP (4.43) and SIERA (4.04). Without finding a better weapon against lefties, he’ll probably underperform those estimators to some extent. That said, he’s likely due for some positive regression, even if it’s not all the way to the 4.04 mark SIERA would suggest. Brubaker finished in the bottom 20 starters in left-on-base rate this year, and more favorable sequencing of the baserunners he allows should naturally improve his ERA. If another team feels confident in their ability to tinker with his repertoire or improve his changeup to better handle southpaws, they could eye him as an interesting change-of-scenery play.

To be clear, Brubaker isn’t going to come anywhere close to attracting the attention Reynolds or Bednar would on the trade market. Yet there’s some appeal for clubs in securing average to slightly below-average innings at little financial cost. The market for mid-tier starting pitchers has been extremely strong. Players like Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon secured four-year deals with underlying marks not much better than Brubaker’s. Brubaker wouldn’t have commanded that kind of outlay as a free agent given his platoon/hard contact issues. Yet one could argue he’s better than Kyle Gibson, who landed a $10MM guarantee from the Orioles for his age-35 season, or Jordan Lyles, who has agreed to terms on a two-year, $17MM pact with the Royals.

Brubaker turned 29 in November, and he’s controllable for three more seasons. Entering his first year of arbitration eligibility, he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an even $2MM salary. He’s affordable enough for any team, and while that includes the Pirates, they don’t seem likely to take an arbitration-eligible starter off the table as they continue their rebuild. Pittsburgh GM Ben Cherington and his staff don’t need to make a deal, but Brubaker’s not the type of player they’d steadfastly refuse to entertain relinquishing.

The free agent rotation market has gained plenty of steam the past few weeks. There hasn’t been any movement on the trade front for starting pitching, although that figures to pick up with the number of free agent hurlers dwindling. Brubaker wouldn’t be as exciting an addition as landing Pablo López or Trevor Rogers from the Marlins, but he should be on teams’ radars as a fallback target later in the winter.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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