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This Date In Transactions History: The James Shields Signing

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We’ve reached the five-year anniversary of a free-agent signing whose effects are still being felt today. It was on Feb. 11, 2015, that the Padres signed longtime workhorse James Shields to a four-year, $75MM guarantee. They beat out at least three other teams to sign Shields, a California native whose homecoming didn’t work out as planned for him or the Padres.

The right-handed Shields was one of several household names the Padres acquired that offseason in hopes of snapping what was then an eight-year playoff drought. Along with adding Shields, general manager A.J. Preller nabbed the Upton brothers (Justin and Melvin), two other high-profile hitters in Matt Kemp and Wil Myers and closer Craig Kimbrel. Despite all those moves, though, the Padres didn’t end their playoff skid that year, nor have they made the postseason since. What’s more, only Myers is still a member of the organization, and he’s now the owner of a contract the Padres would love to clear from their books.

Shields, then 33 years old, joined the Padres off stellar runs with the Rays and Royals. The man known as “Big Game James” and “Complete Game James” debuted in 2006 and threw at least 200 innings in each season from 2007-14. He was at his best in the four seasons preceding his deal with the Padres, as he fired a league-leading 932 2/3 innings of 3.17 ERA/3.49 FIP ball with 7.95 K/9, 2.27 BB/9 and a 46.3 percent groundball rate.

While Shields remained a fairly effective innings-eater in his first season as a Padre, he didn’t offer the type of front-line production he had in prior years. Shields wound up tossing 202 1/3 frames of 3.91 ERA/4.45 FIP ball, posted 9.61 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9, and recorded a 44.9 percent grounder rate in 2015. That went down as his lone full season as a member of the Padres. After Shields got off to an underwhelming start the next year, the Padres traded him and $31MM of the $58MM left on his contract to the White Sox in June 2016. Like the Padres before them, the White Sox were mistakenly under the impression Shields would help them push for a playoff spot. And like the Padres now, they’re still in the midst of a long postseason drought. Meanwhile, Shields hasn’t pitched since 2018 – the last of three rough seasons in Chicago.

While the Shields-Padres union didn’t work out as planned, it’s one that could benefit them for many years. After all, had they not signed Shields, they may not have been able to pull off one of the biggest heists in recent history. The Padres acquired two players – righty Erik Johnson and then-infield prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. – in exchange for Shields. Johnson didn’t amount to anything in a Padres uniform, and he hasn’t pitched professionally since 2018. But the Padres struck gold on Tatis, who was just 17 when they got him and wasn’t regarded as a premium prospect. Tatis eventually soared up prospect rankings, though, and looked like a can’t-miss talent by the time he made his major league debut last season. He delivered in a big way as a 21-year-old, though injuries limited him to 84 games and 372 plate appearances, as he slashed a tremendous .317/.379/.590 with 22 home runs, 16 stolen bases and 3.6 fWAR.

It’s safe to say Tatis is now one of the foremost young building blocks in the sport. Had it not been for a free-agent signing that went awry, he might not even be a Padre right now.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Daniel Mengden Undergoes Elbow Surgery

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Athletics right-hander Daniel Mengden underwent arthroscopic surgery on his pitching elbow Monday, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Mengden will miss at least two months as a result, making it likely he’ll begin the season on the 60-day injured list, according to Slusser.

The 26-year-old Mengden divided last season between the A’s and their Triple-A affiliate in Las Vegas, totaling 13 appearances for both teams. He started nine games for Oakland and pitched to a 4.83 ERA/4.69 FIP with ugly strikeout, walk and groundball rates over 59 2/3 innings. Mengden fanned 6.34 hitters per nine, walked 4.07 and induced grounders at a 36.3 percent clip. He was much better in those categories in the minors (8.58 K/9, 2.82 BB/9, 51.4 percent GB rate), but his run prevention was somewhat similar. Mengden wound up with a 4.22 ERA/4.55 FIP across 64 frames and 10 starts.

While Mengden has mostly been a starter in the majors since he came on the scene in 2016, he’d have been in line to compete for a bullpen spot this spring. The A’s, after all, have plenty of other rotation candidates or locks (Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Mike Fiers, Jesus Luzardo, Chris Bassitt and A.J. Puk are among them). It’s now up in the air whether Mengden will throw another pitch as a member of the organization, considering he’s out of minor league options. But if he does go on the 60-day IL, Oakland will save a 40-man roster spot and put that decision on hold.

Dodgers Designate Tyler White, Kyle Garlick

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The Dodgers have designated first baseman Tyler White and outfielder Kyle Garlick for assignment, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register was among those to report. These moves come in the wake of Los Angeles’ acquisitions of Mookie Betts and David Price from Boston, leaving the Dodgers’ 40-man roster at capacity.

The 29-year-old White didn’t last long on the Dodgers’ 40-man. They acquired White last July from the Astros, with whom he was once a top-100 prospect. White posted a strong .276/.354/.533 line in 237 plate appearances in 2018, but he was unable to approach that production last year between Houston and Los Angeles. He combined for a .208/.308/.304 line in 279 trips to the plate, and injury issues helped limit White to a meager 26 PA as a Dodger.

Garlick, 28, was far more successful than White last season. A 28th-round pick back in 2015, Garlick showed well in his brief MLB debut in 2019, slashing .250/.321/.521 with three homers in 51 trips to the plate. He saw time in both outfield corners during that stint. Garlick spent the majority of the year in Triple-A ball, where he was excellent. His .314/.382/.675 showing (23 HRs) in 304 PA was 45 percent better than the league-average line, per FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric.

Garlick still has two minor league options left, so perhaps some other team will take a chance on him via trade or waivers. White’s out of options, so he’d have to stick on an acquiring club’s 26-man roster or head to the waiver wire.

MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Red Sox?

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The Mookie Betts trade saga finally reached an end Monday when the Red Sox announced a deal sending him and left-hander David Price to the Dodgers. Both players were instrumental in helping the Red Sox to their most recent World Series title in 2018, and Betts is on a short list of the game’s greatest players. But the Red Sox nonetheless moved on from the two, saving $75MM in the trade ($48MM on Price, $27MM on Betts) and getting back a trio of promising young players in outfielder Alex Verdugo, infielder Jeter Downs and catcher Connor Wong.

Needless to say, Boston’s hope is that Verdugo, Downs and Wong will emerge as long-term core pieces. In the here and now, though, only Verdugo figures to play a significant role. The 23-year-old had a solid rookie season in 2019 before injuries cut him down. Even if Verdugo stays healthy in 2020, he’s not going to make Red Sox fans forget about Betts. That’s not a knock on Verdugo – who has shown that he’s a quality major leaguer – but a compliment to Betts, a legitimate superstar.

Betts was among the driving forces for a position player group that finished fourth in the majors in runs and sixth in fWAR last year. To be sure, Betts didn’t do it all himself. There’s still incredible talent on hand in shortstop Xander Bogaerts, third baseman Rafael Devers and designated hitter J.D. Martinez. They should continue to make Boston’s offense a bear for enemy pitchers to deal with, while Verdugo, fellow outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Jackie Bradley Jr. (if he’s not dealt), and catcher Christian Vazquez look like fine complementary pieces. That said, there’s no doubt Boston’s offense would have looked better had Betts remained a part of it.

Just as the Red Sox’s position player group took at least a short-term hit in this trade, so did its rotation. Price may not have been the all-world ace the Red Sox expected when they signed him to a then-record $217MM contract entering 2016, but he’s still an above-average starter. While injuries held Price to 107 1/3 innings last season, he did log a useful 4.28 ERA/3.62 FIP with 10.73 K/9 and 2.68 BB/9. Price was undoubtedly a top three starter on a team whose rotation didn’t get much from anyone else but Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale a season ago.

Rodriguez and Sale are still on the roster, but there aren’t any sure things backing them up in Boston’s staff. Nathan Eovaldi will try to rebound from a horrid season, and the team brought in the relatively inexpensive Martin Perez (a back-end starter) in free agency. It’s up in the air who will occupy the fifth spot in the Red Sox’s rotation behind that quartet. As for the club’s bullpen, which endured its share of scrutiny last year, there haven’t been any especially notable additions this winter.

The 2019 campaign didn’t go as planned for the Red Sox, who entered with title aspirations but ended up winning a disappointing 84 games. They’ve since let go of their manager, Alex Cora, as a result of a sign-stealing scandal, and now the face of their franchise and one of their most reliable starters are also gone. Cora hasn’t been replaced yet, but his successor will be stepping into a drastically different situation than the one he oversaw. The Betts- and Price-less Red Sox are still a talented team, though, and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said Monday that it’s still “realistic” to believe they’ll compete in 2020. Considering how their roster looks now, do you agree?

(Poll link for app users)

How many Red Sox wins do you expect?
80-84 40.45% (6,252 votes)
85-89 34.60% (5,348 votes)
Fewer than 80 12.87% (1,990 votes)
90-94 10.33% (1,597 votes)
95 or more 1.75% (271 votes)
Total Votes: 15,458

MLBTR Poll: The Futures Of Jeff Luhnow, A.J. Hinch

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Former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow and manager A.J. Hinch were among the most successful in baseball in their positions, but their legacies have been tarnished over the past few weeks. Almost a month ago, Major League Baseball suspended the pair for a year apiece for their roles in a 2017 sign-stealing scandal that has dominated headlines in recent weeks. In an effort to distance themselves from Luhnow and Hinch, the Astros fired both of them shortly after MLB banned the two for the 2020 campaign. The question now is whether either will return to their previous jobs with other teams when their suspensions end.

The Astros hired Luhnow, a former Cardinals executive, as their GM heading into the 2012 season. The club endured a couple incredibly lean years thereafter, winning 50-some games in Luhnow’s first two seasons, before beginning an upward climb that culminated in three straight 100-win campaigns from 2017-19. The Astros won their first-ever championship and a couple AL pennants in that three-year span, but now the legitimacy of that run is in question. Luhnow, per a report from the Wall Street Journal on Friday, may have been complicit in a sign-stealing scheme called “Codebreaker.”

While Luhnow denied having a role in “Codebreaker”, commissioner Rob Manfred disagreed, saying that “there is more than sufficient evidence to support a conclusion that you knew—and overwhelming evidence that you should have known—that the Astros maintained a sign-stealing program that violated MLB’s rules.”

Hinch, meanwhile, has come off as more contrite than Luhnow. He has owned up to the fact that the Astros committed wrongdoing on his watch. That should help Hinch’s cause if he attempts to become a manager again. It’ll have to be with another team, though. The Rubicon has been crossed in Houston, where he won’t get his old job back. The same applies to Luhnow. But do you expect another team to hire either of them sometime after their suspensions expire?

(Luhnow poll for app users)

Will Luhnow be a GM again?
No 84.23% (15,166 votes)
Yes 15.77% (2,839 votes)
Total Votes: 18,005

(Hinch poll for app users)

Will Hinch manage again?
Yes 57.77% (10,527 votes)
No 42.23% (7,694 votes)
Total Votes: 18,221

Quick Hits: Joc, Graterol, Mets, Cohen

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Outfielder Joc Pederson is currently in limbo, waiting to find out whether the Dodgers will actually trade him to the Angels. He’s still a member of the Dodgers for now, though, and they defeated him in arbitration Friday. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) sheds more light on the process, writing that the Dodgers bolstered their case by arguing that Pederson’s merely a platoon player. They’re not necessarily wrong – the 27-year-old left-handed hitter has fared miserably versus southpaw pitchers since he made his major league debut in 2014. However, those on the MLBPA side feel it was problematic that the Dodgers were even in position to battle Pederson, per Rosenthal. There’s an argument that Pederson’s hearing should have been tabled because of the holdup in the Dodgers-Angels trade centering on him. Indeed, Rosenthal reports that the union and Pederson’s representatives at Excel Sports Management filed a motion for a delay in his arbitration hearing. Nevertheless, it ended up taking place on schedule, and the Dodgers – who could soon be his ex-team – came out on top.

  • The reason the Pederson trade hasn’t gone down yet is the delay in the Mookie Betts swap featuring the Red Sox, Dodgers and Twins. The Red Sox are reportedly wary of the health of Twins righty Brusdar Graterol, who’s one of at least two players they’ll get back in the deal. They seem worried he’s destined to be a reliever, not a starter. But Graterol’s agent, Scott Boras, insisted Friday that his client still has an opportunity to become a starter in the majors (via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe).  “I had this conversation with the Minnesota staff,” Boras said. “There’s a very clear probability that this player will return to be a starting pitcher.” While Graterol’s a past Tommy John surgery patient who missed a large chunk of time last year with a shoulder impingement, doctors have informed Boras that the 21-year-old will be fine going forward. “No doctor has told me that there is anything about his future going forward other than that it is very bright and he has no limitations,” Boras stated.
  • The Mets’ potential sale to minority owner Steve Cohen fell through Thursday, and now it’s possible he won’t be able to purchase another team, according to Josh Kosman and Thornton McEnery of the New York Post. The belief of the Mets and MLB is that Cohen “acted in bad faith” during negotiations, Kosman and McEnery write. Cohen had been working to buy the franchise for $2.6 billion, but he attempted to change the payment schedule, and he may have wanted to lower the overall sum. And while Cohen wouldn’t have been in line to become New York’s control person until 2025, he’d have wanted input into how the Mets were run before then. That didn’t fly for the Wilpons, the Mets’ current owners. However, the Wilpons still plan to sell the club to a different buyer.

Checking In On Last Year’s NL Division Champs

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We checked in earlier tonight on how things are shaping up for last year’s American League division winners as get set for a new season. Let’s do the same here for the three Senior Circuit clubs that won division titles in 2019…

NL West – Dodgers (106-56; won division by 21 games)

  • It’s hard to assess the Dodgers’ roster without knowing if their planned Mookie Betts acquisition will go through. There are many moving parts involved in that deal, as a Betts pickup would send fellow outfielders Alex Verdugo and Joc Pederson, not to mention righty Kenta Maeda, to different teams. Regardless of that, and regardless of what wasn’t an especially active offseason for the Dodgers before the Betts swap, they’re in line to take home their eighth straight division championship in 2020. That said, they’ll face more competition from the Diamondbacks and Padres. Those two teams have enjoyed impressive offseasons, though it’s still difficult to imagine either toppling the juggernaut Dodgers in 2020.

NL East – Braves (97-65; won division by four games)

  • The Braves lost a few key free agents in Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel and Julio Teheran, but they still look like a rock-solid club when considering the talent on hand and their new additions. Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies and Mike Soroka continue to headline their core, and they’ve picked up Will Smith, Marcell Ozuna, Cole Hamels and Travis d’Arnaud in free agency. There’s little doubt the Braves will be very good again in 2020; problem is that they’re stuck in a division with two or three real challengers. The Nationals, last year’s world champions, as well as the Mets and Phillies have done quite a bit of tinkering with their rosters this winter. Even the Marlins have tried to better themselves. All things considered, the NL East is shaping up to be a dogfight this year.

NL Central – Cardinals (91-71; won division by two games)

  • Like the NL East, the NL Central should be hotly contested in 2020. The Cardinals ruled by a thin margin last season, but they’ve since had a pretty low-key offseason. For the most part, they’ll be relying on their talent from 2019 to nab another title this year. Luckily for the Cardinals, neither the Brewers nor Cubs look demonstrably better (they’re arguably worse) than they were last season, and the Pirates’ roster is a mess. The Reds have been one of the offseason’s busiest teams, though, and look as if they’ll have a chance to jump from 75-win team to playoff-caliber club in 2020.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/7/20

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Here are the latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Tigers have signed right-hander Chris Smith to a minor league contract, Robert Murray tweets. Smith was with the Tigers for a brief period last year, but he suffered an elbow injury in spring training and wound up needing Tommy John surgery. Detroit released him as a result, but he’s now back with the organization, and Murray notes that he should be ready to return by March or April. Now 31 years old, Smith has only thrown five major league innings (all with Toronto in 2017). The last time Smith pitched competitively, he threw 55 innings of 3.93 ERA/3.88 FIP ball with 10.64 K/9 and 3.44 BB/9 as a member of the Nationals’ Triple-A affiliate in 2018.
  • The Blue Jays have picked up lefty Brian Moran on a minors pact with an invitation to MLB spring training, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The soft-tossing Moran, 31, made his major league debut last season with the Marlins, throwing 6 1/3 innings of three-run ball with 10 strikeouts and two walks. The majority of his work came at the Triple-A level, where he posted a 3.15 ERA/4.18 FIP with 11.55 K/9, 3.9 BB/9 and a 47.1 percent groundball rate. The Marlins designated him for assignment on Jan. 15.

Checking In On Last Year’s AL Division Champs

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Most or all of last year’s division winners figure to enter the upcoming season as the favorites to repeat, but some degree of turnover is inevitable. Last season, for instance, three of the game’s six divisions crowned new champions. You never know which winner(s) from a year ago will off, but you can make educated guesses based on the offseasons clubs have had. With spring training right around the corner, let’s begin by taking a look at how the reigning AL divisions champs have fared this winter. All of those clubs won 100-plus games and took home their divisions by large margins in 2019. Has the gap closed on any of them?

AL West – Astros (107-65; won division by 10 games):

  • As those who follow the game even a little bit know, this has been the winter of discontent for the typically dominant Astros. There’s no more GM Jeff Luhnow or manager A.J. Hinch, both fired for their roles in the team’s 2017 sign-stealing scandal. They’ve since been replaced by James Click and Dusty Baker, respectively. Those two are in the strange spot of inheriting a team that, despite three straight 100-win seasons and last year’s AL pennant, is in a tumultuous position. There’s still plenty of talent on hand, but the Astros have lost some of their major pieces from 2019 (Gerrit Cole, Will Harris, Wade Miley and Robinson Chirinos) and, thanks in part to luxury-tax concerns, haven’t really made any moves to get better. Meanwhile, their greatest challenger in the AL West, Oakland, continues to look formidable, and two of the division’s other teams (the Rangers and Angels) have worked hard to improve themselves.

AL East – Yankees (103-59; won division by seven games)

  • New York’s a popular World Series pick after swiping Cole from Houston, though the Yankees’ rotation suffered a blow earlier this week with the announcement that lefty James Paxton will miss three to four months after undergoing back surgery. It’s the latest notable injury for a Yankees team that endured one after another a season ago. Despite Paxton’s issues and the Tommy John surgery center fielder Aaron Hicks underwent last fall, the club’s clearly banking on better health in 2020, as it hasn’t made any major transactions aside from signing Cole and re-upping outfielder Brett Gardner (both were important moves, granted). The Yanks also lost two longtime key contributors – shortstop Didi Gregorius and reliever Dellin Betances – to free agency, though they did just fine last year despite having to go significant stretches without them (Betances essentially missed the whole season). Looking around their division, the Yankees remain the clear front-runners, though the Rays should be legitimate challengers again. The Red Sox are in line to get markedly worse if their Mookie Betts trade goes through; the Blue Jays have upgraded their roster, but they still look a ways away from seriously taking on the Yankees; and there’s no doubt the Orioles will be the division’s whipping boys yet again.

AL Central – Twins (101-61; won division by eight games)

  • An offense that set the all-time home run record with 307 last season has seemingly gotten even stronger this winter with the signing of $92MM third baseman Josh Donaldson, who smacked 37 as a Brave in 2019. While the Twins’ offense is terrifying, there’s less certainty surrounding its pitching staff. Minnesota hasn’t been able to pull in an ace-type starter since the prior campaign concluded, but it has been active in addressing its rotation. Jake Odorizzi’s back, having accepted the Twins’ qualifying offer. So is Michael Pineda, whom they re-signed on a multiyear deal, though he’ll miss the early portion of 2020 as a result of a PED suspension from last season. Likewise, new addition Rich Hill (injured) won’t be ready from the outset. But the Twins did bring in revived veteran Homer Bailey alongside Hill, and if the aforementioned Betts trade becomes official, they’ll also pick up the underrated Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers. Minnesota will continue to look like a quality team even if the Maeda addition falls through, but it could face more resistance in its division. The Indians haven’t made many (any?) high-end acquisitions in recent months, but they still boast a solid roster. The White Sox appear to have gotten much better thanks to a slew of noteworthy moves, and even the last-place Tigers have made an effort to increase their talent.

Latest On Potential Mookie Betts Trade

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February 7: The trade is expected to become official today, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets, citing sources from multiple teams involved in the deal. Completion of the Betts blockbuster would serve as a precursor for the finalization of the Dodgers’ Pederson/Stripling trade with the Angels as well.

It’s not yet clear what type of alterations, if any, will be made to the deal. Heyman tweeted earlier this morning that the Red Sox have been seeking an additional top prospect from the Twins, although it’s difficult to envision the Twins parting with another highly regarded talent without additional pieces being sent their way.

February 6, 8:27PM: “Some involved [in the trade] are now suggesting it’s not a certainty,” MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets, as the holdup continues to center around the Red Sox, Twins, and Graterol’s condition.  Boston is reportedly trying to “reconfigure” its end of the deal with the Twins, “meaning more than Graterol” would head from Minnesota to Fenway Park.

1:03 AM: There’s only a “slim” chance this trade will completely fall apart, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. The delay “is a problem but one we can figure out,” a source involved in the trade told Passan.

February 5: It has been more than 24 hours since the Mookie Betts trade was first reported, but the potential blockbuster featuring the Red Sox, Dodgers and Twins still hasn’t been finalized as we head into Thursday. There’s still confidence the deal will be completed, but there may end up being more pieces involved in the trade, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link).

The Red Sox are slated to send Betts and left-hander David Price (and approximately half of the remaining $96MM on his contract) to the Dodgers. In return, the Red Sox are set to get outfielder Alex Verdugo from LA and righty Brusdar Graterol from Minnesota. The Twins are in line to receive righty Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers.

Despite missing the final couple of months of last season with back/oblique/core problems, Verdugo has already been medically cleared, according to Rosenthal. However, Rosenthal writes that the Red Sox do have some concerns over the hard-throwing Graterol, whom they now regard as more of a reliever than a starter after looking at his medical records. Notably, Graterol’s a past Tommy John surgery patient who has also dealt with other injuries. The 21-year-old missed two months last season with shoulder issues that limited him to a combined 70 2/3 innings at four different levels (including 9 2/3 in the bigs).

While it still seems that Boston will acquire Graterol if the trade does occur, Rosenthal notes the club may also require another player and/or cash considerations from either the Dodgers or Twins to push it over the goal line. Assuming the three teams are able to reach some sort of compromise on what would go down as one of the most significant trades in recent history, it should open the door for yet another high-profile swap involving the Dodgers. They’re working to move outfielder Joc Pederson and hurler Ross Stripling as part of a deal with the Angels, but that’s delayed as the Dodgers await word on the Betts deal.

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