East Notes: Manny, Yankees, Mets, Pollock, Britton, Nats
A few notes from the East Coast, where the first day of 2019 is nearing an end…
- Free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper raised eyebrows on social media last month when he “liked” an Instagram post relating to the Dodgers. Not to be outdone, fellow superstar free agent Manny Machado may have hinted about his own future plans on Instagram, as Jon Heyman of Fancred point outed out on Monday. Machado began following the YES Network, which broadcasts most Yankees games and which the franchise owns a portion of, only to quickly unfollow it when people took notice. Machado’s apparent interest in YES may be much ado about nothing, but for the moment, it has added a bit of intrigue to what looks like a three-horse race for his services.
- Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen “remains engaged” on the trade market, according to the New York Post’s Mike Puma, who reports the team is seeking an outfielder, a reliever (preferably a lefty), starting pitching depth and a backup infielder. Signing free-agent outfielder A.J. Pollock would address one of those needs, though Van Wagenen implied last month that wouldn’t happen, and Puma hears the Mets are leery of giving the 31-year-old a big contract. Similarly, the Mets are “unlikely” to go after lefty reliever Zach Britton in free agency, Puma writes.
- With the Nationals gearing up for the arrival of prospect Carter Kieboom, they may not sign a free-agent second baseman to anything more than a one-year deal, Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic suggests (subscription required). The Nationals have shown interest in free agent DJ LeMahieu, but because he’s seeking a multiyear deal, there might not be a match between the sides. Free agent Brian Dozier, who could be in line for a one-year pact, would be a better fit, Ghiroli posits. The club has also expressed interest in Dozier this winter.
Pirates Sign Tyler Lyons
The Pirates have signed left-handed reliever Tyler Lyons to a minor league pact, John Dreker of PiratesProspects.com reports.
Pittsburgh’s plenty familiar with Lyons, who had been with NL Central rival St. Louis since it selected him in the 2010 draft. Lyons, a former starter, debuted with the Cardinals in 2013 and later emerged as an effective piece out of their bullpen. Over 97 appearances (89 in relief) and 162 innings from 2015-17, Lyons posted a 3.33 ERA. He was particularly excellent in 2017, a 54-frame showing in which he logged a 2.83 ERA with 11.33 K/9, 3.33 BB/9 and a 41.9 percent groundball rate.
The Redbirds were likely expecting more of the same from Lyons in 2018, but the 30-year-old’s season went awry as he battled back and elbow injuries. While Lyons continued to strike out hitters at a solid clip (10.26 per nine), his walks increased (4.32 BB/9), his grounder rate dropped to alarming degrees (28.3 percent) and his home run rate went from .5 per nine the previous season to 1.62. He also surrendered a ridiculously high .412 batting average on balls in play and only recorded a 60.4 percent strand rate. All of that led to an 8.64 ERA across 16 2/3 innings for Lyons, whom the Cardinals designated for assignment in late July. Lyons spent the rest of the season at Triple-A, where he offered far better production (2.49 ERA, 8.72 K/9, 2.49 BB/9 in 21 2/3 innings), and then elected free agency in October.
Considering Lyons’ past success and the makeup of the Pirates’ bullpen, he could earn a major league shot in Pittsburgh in 2019. Aside from closer Felipe Vazquez, the only lefty reliever on the Bucs’ 40-man roster is Steven Brault, who has struggled in the bigs since debuting in 2016.
Rockies Sign Michael Saunders
The Rockies have signed outfielder Michael Saunders to a minor league contract, Brandon Warne of Zone Coverage reports. They’re Saunders’ first team since the White Sox released him in late June.
A former top prospect with Seattle, Saunders has been a solid major leaguer at times – including during an All-Star 2016 with the Blue Jays. Saunders’ numbers plummeted in the second half of his All-Star season, though, and he has fallen off the radar over the past couple years.
In 2017, which he opened with the Phillies after they awarded him a $9MM guarantee in free agency, Saunders managed a disastrous .202/.256/.344 batting line in 234 major league plate appearances. He struggled so badly in Philadelphia that the club released him midway through the season, leading the Canadian-born Saunders to return to the Blue Jays on a minors deal. However, Saunders was unable to rebound in Toronto or with its Triple-A affiliate.
Unfortunately for Saunders, his stock took an even greater hit in 2018. Not only did Saunders fail to reach the majors with the bottom-feeding Orioles or White Sox, but his production tanked with their minor league teams. Across 154 PAs at the Triple-A level, the 32-year-old batted .158/.273/.248.
Free Agent Faceoff: Robertson Vs. Britton Vs. Ottavino
Seven-time All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel entered the winter as the undisputed No. 1 reliever available in free agency, but it’s not as easy to identify the second-best option on the open market. When the offseason commenced, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Jeff Todd lumped four relievers close together behind Kimbrel in terms of projected earning power. They forecast that Jeurys Familia, David Robertson and Zach Britton would each earn three-year, $33MM contracts, while Adam Ottavino would come in a bit behind at three years and $30MM. Familia’s now off the board, having rejoined the Mets on a three-year, $30MM guarantee, while fellow bullpen arms Andrew Miller, Joe Kelly and Joakim Soria have also received lucrative contracts.
With Familia, Miller, Kelly and Soria no longer in the free-agent mix, it’s clear that Robertson, Britton and Ottavino are the most desirable non-Kimbrel relievers without teams. There has been widespread interest in all three over the past couple months, with some of the same clubs in contention for multiple members of the group. But who’s the most appealing hurler among the trio?
Perhaps the answer is the right-handed Robertson, who has put together nine straight highly productive seasons of 60-plus innings. Undoubtedly one of the most durable and effective relievers in recent memory, the longtime Yankee is coming off a season in which he logged a 3.23 ERA/2.97 FIP with 11.76 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and a 45.3 percent groundball rate across a career-best 69 2/3 innings. Never one to rely on high-90s velocity, Robertson continued to confound hitters with his breaking stuff, as FanGraphs rated his curve as the most valuable pitch of its kind among 2018 relievers. Batters posted a dreadful .196 weighted on-base average against that pitch and an even worse .145 mark when he threw his slider, according to Statcast.
If there’s one concern with Robertson, it’s his age. He’s set to turn 34 in April, meaning it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll continue to thrive over the course of a multiyear deal. Britton, meanwhile, is three years younger, having turned 31 on Dec. 22. Aside from Kimbrel, Britton likely had the best peak of anyone in this winter’s class of free-agent relievers. The left-hander amassed anywhere from 65 2/3 innings to 76 1/3 in each season as the Orioles’ closer between 2014-16, a three-year span in which he converted 120 of 128 save opportunities, led relievers in groundball rate (77.9 percent), placed second in ERA (1.38) and recorded 9.26 K/9 against 2.37 BB/9.
Britton was close to infallible during his heyday, but he fell off between 2017-18, when forearm, knee and Achilles injuries limited him to 78 innings. Britton still managed a terrific 3.00 ERA and a fantastic 72.8 percent grounder rate in that period, which he spent with the O’s and Yankees. His K/9 (7.27) and BB/9 (4.5) each went in the wrong direction, though, and his power sinker wasn’t as imposing.
Unlike Robertson and Britton, Ottavino brings little game-ending experience to the table, evidenced by his 17 career saves. He’s also a onetime Tommy John surgery patient and a 33-year-old whose career with the Cardinals and Rockies hasn’t been all that consistent. The righty has put together a handful of outstanding seasons and a few poor campaigns, though it seems he found another gear in 2018. After a woeful 2017 in Colorado, Ottavino spent last offseason working to improve his command in his native New York City, as former FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik detailed in May, and the results were astounding.
Using primarily sliders and sinkers, Ottavino pitched to a 2.43 ERA/2.74 FIP with 12.98 K/9 and 4.17 BB/9 across a personal-best 77 2/3 frames last season. In the process, his first-pitch strike rate increased nearly 14 percent from 2017 and his out-of-zone swing rate climbed by almost 5 percent. Further, as Mike Petriello of MLB.com pointed out in October, Ottavino was a soft-contact wiz in 2018, trailing only all-world relievers Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen in xwOBA against (.229; Robertson’s was .276, while Britton checked in at .311).
Although it’s obvious that Ottavino’s career has been less impressive than those of Robertson and Britton, it’s possible he’s the best of the three right now. Cases could be made for both Robertson and Britton, however, and it’ll be interesting to see how much guaranteed money these three high-end relievers ultimately receive in the coming weeks. Which one would you sign?
(poll link for app users)
Which reliever do you prefer?
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Zach Britton 39% (6,736)
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David Robertson 37% (6,285)
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Adam Ottavino 24% (4,146)
Total votes: 17,167
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Jays, Yanks, Bryce, Manny, Mets, Trout
This week in baseball blogs…
- Jays From the Couch (links: 1, 2) talks with Toronto president Mark Shapiro on how the team is grooming its future stars.
- Pinstripe Alley puts the Yankees’ financial austerity in context.
- The K Zone features a piece on Tommy John surgery.
- CheckSwings delves into what MLB might look like if there were no trades, free agency, or waivers.
- STL Hat Trick examines potential 10-year contracts for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.
- MLB & Fantasy Baseball Analyzed takes a look at Steamer projections for several players who have signed free-agent contracts this offseason.
- Rising Apple ranks 10 underappreciated free agents the Mets should consider.
- Phillies Nation pours cold water on the chances of Philly trading for Mike Trout.
- The Point of Pittsburgh explains how the Pirates should have used the BAMTech monies to boost 2019 payroll.
- Reviewing The Brew sees Milwaukee as a logical landing spot for Troy Tulowitzki.
- Around the Foghorn searches for effective and affordable free agents the Giants could target.
- Prospect Universe is bullish on the A’s future.
- District on Deck names seven free-agent second basemen the Nationals could pursue.
- East Village Times writes about the possibility of the Padres acquiring Miguel Andujar.
- Statsswipe argues that Andujar’s ability to hit a curve could make him an All-Star.
- Tomahawk Take considers a reunion between the Braves and Jason Heyward.
- Chin Music Baseball has New Year’s resolutions for every team.
- The Runner Sports (links: 1, 2) weighs the pros and cons of the Twins’ Nelson Cruz signing, and regards pitching coach Brent Strom as a key piece to the Astros’ puzzle.
- Call to the Pen (links: 1, 2, 3) names four possible non-Harper additions for the Dodgers, asks if Craig Kimbrel could return to Boston, and wonders if the Phillies will make a big splash in January.
- Everything Bluebirds reacts to the Blue Jays’ signing of Matt Shoemaker.
- Mets Critic opines that the club needs to stop playing corner outfielders in center.
- Pinstriped Prospects explores the state of the Yankees’ farm system.
- The Fro Zone grades some recent free-agent signings.
- Rox Pile explains that the Rockies’ outfield will look different in 2019.
- Foul Territory looks at the history of free agency in baseball.
- Sports Radio 94 WIP calls out the hypocrisy in Hall of Fame voting.
- Around the Bases with Julian Bussells (podcast) discusses the Hall of Fame voting and chats with White Sox pitcher Caleb Frare.
- Future Blue Jays lists under-the-radar Jays prospects to keep an eye on in 2019.
- The 3rd Man In profiles and interviews 2019 draft prospect Zack Thompson.
- A’s Farm runs down the Athletics’ minor league free agent signings.
- Extra Innings UK has an exclusive preview of the Don’t Blink Home Run Derby in Paradise, featuring Lewis Brinson, Touki Toussaint and Bo Bichette.
- Chipalatta shares 10 Christmas wishes for the Astros.
Blue Jays Acquire Clayton Richard
4:54pm: Toronto will pay half of Richard’s $3MM salary, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com suggests.
4:15pm: Both teams have announced the trade. The Blue Jays are also getting cash considerations in the deal.
3:55pm: Richard’s going to Toronto, Nicholson-Smith tweets. The Blue Jays will give up minor leaguer outfielder Connor Panas, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. The 25-year-old Panas, a Toronto native whom the Blue Jays chose in the ninth round of the 2015 draft, got his first taste of Double-A action last season and hit .232/.296/.359 with nine home runs in 407 plate appearances.
3:35pm: The Blue Jays are close to acquiring left-hander Clayton Richard from the Padres, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports. Richard has been in limbo since the Padres designated him for assignment on Dec. 20.
The 35-year-old Richard has been a useful starter at times since his major league career began with the White Sox in 2008, but he’s now coming off an ugly season. Over 158 2/3 innings and 27 starts in San Diego, Richard pitched to a 5.33 ERA/4.68 FIP with 6.13 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 before undergoing season-ending left knee surgery in late August. On the bright side, Richard posted an excellent groundball rate (56.8 percent), which has been a staple throughout his time in the majors.
Needless to say, Richard – who’s owed a guaranteed $3MM in 2019, the last season of a two-year contract – wouldn’t be a particularly exciting acquisition for Toronto. If healthy, though, he could eat innings for a retooling Blue Jays team which may have multiple questions in its rotation next season. The Jays look to have four-fifths of their rotation set with Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Ryan Borucki and the just-signed Matt Shoemaker in the fold. However, Stroman has frequented trade rumors throughout the offseason, Sanchez battled injury and performance issues from 2017-18, and Shoemaker was neither healthy nor especially effective with the Angels over the previous couple years.
Diamondbacks Acquire Robby Scott
The Diamondbacks have acquired left-hander Robby Scott from the Reds for cash, according to an announcement from Cincinnati. The Reds designated Scott for assignment on Dec. 21, ending a brief run with the club that began when it claimed him off waivers from the Red Sox on Dec. 10.
The 29-year-old Scott racked up a solid chunk of innings in Boston in 2017, when he totaled 35 2/3 frames and put up a respectable 3.79 ERA with 7.82 K/9, 3.28 BB/9 and a 42.6 percent groundball rate. Scott only managed a 5.32 FIP that year, though, and was barely a factor last season for the Red Sox’s World Series-winning team, with whom he threw a mere 6 2/3 innings and allowed six earned runs on 10 hits and five walks (with eight strikeouts).
While Scott hasn’t been that successful in the majors, he has recorded a 3.21 ERA with 9.1 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 in 165 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level. Now a member of the Arizona organization, Scott will reunite with general manager Mike Hazen and manager Torey Lovullo, who are both familiar with the hurler from their days with the Boston franchise.
Blue Jays Designate Oliver Drake
The Blue Jays have designated right-hander Oliver Drake for assignment to make room for newly acquired southpaw Clayton Richard, per a team announcement.
Drake only lasted a few weeks on the 40-man roster in Toronto, which claimed him off waivers from the Rays on Nov. 26. By now, the 31-year-old Drake is used to short-lived stints on major league rosters. Drake saw action with a record five teams (including the Blue Jays) in 2018, and has pitched for a total of seven clubs since debuting with the Orioles in 2015.
Over 137 1/3 major league innings, including 47 2/3 last season, Drake has offered signs of encouragement. While Drake does own a below-average ERA (4.59), he has notched 9.9 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9, generated ground balls at a 47.3 percent clip and recorded a 3.48 FIP/3.63 xFIP. And Drake has been dominant at the Triple-A level, where he has posted a 1.80 ERA with 12.7 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 across 110 innings. Perhaps yet another major league team will take a chance on him via waivers, then.
Padres Still In Mix For Sonny Gray
Yankees right-hander and trade candidate Sonny Gray has been connected to the Padres, among many other teams, since the offseason began in earnest last month. The New Year is now around the corner and Gray remains a member of the Yankees, though the Padres are still “very much” involved in discussions centering on the 29-year-old, AJ Cassavell of MLB.com reports.
General manager Brian Cashman telegraphed that the Yankees would trade Gray this winter after the Red Sox bounced them from the playoffs in October, when he admitted it would make sense to send him elsewhere. Nevertheless, various reports have suggested the Yankees’ asking price has been too lofty for a hurler who struggled in 2018 and only has one year of control left (at a projected $9.1MM).
As MLBTR has written seemingly ad infinitum over the past couple months, Gray’s coming off a season in which he registered a horrid 4.90 ERA and a personal-worst 3.94 BB/9 across 130 1/3 innings, leading the Yankees to pull him from their rotation. However, Gray maintained his velocity and offered appealing results away from Yankee Stadium, as he posted a 3.17 ERA/2.65 FIP on the road. There is no question other teams are well aware of Gray’s success outside of the Bronx, given that double-digit clubs have shown some level of interest in him since Cashman announced he was for sale.
Based on both the road numbers he put up in last season and his productive stint in Oakland, where he pitched from 2013-17, Gray would be a much-needed upgrade for the Padres. In 2018, San Diego’s eighth straight sub-.500 season, its starters ranked 27th in the majors in ERA and 28th in fWAR. Of the 12 starters the Padres trotted out, only Joey Lucchesi enjoyed a decent amount of success over a large sample size.
As a result of the adversity their rotation experienced in 2018, the Padres have been scouring the market for help, having shown reported interest in Gray, the Indians’ Corey Kluber, the Mets’ Noah Syndergaard, the Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman, the Mariners’ Mike Leake, and free agents Dallas Keuchel and Yusei Kikuchi. Among that group, Gray may be the most realistic target for the Padres. Acquiring Kluber, Syndergaard or Stroman would presumably force the Padres to take a sizable bite out of their top-ranked farm system; Leake, meanwhile, has a no-trade clause and still has a significant amount of guaranteed money left on his contract; and both Keuchel and Kikuchi are in line for high-paying deals.
In the event the Padres do land Gray, he could either help them return to relevance (if he rebounds) or end up as a midseason trade chip. Should San Diego fall out of the race by the summer, which has been an all-too-common occurrence in franchise history, it could further bolster its system by shipping Gray to a contender.
NL Notes & Rumors: Nats, Marwin, Jed, Pads, Fish, J.T., Braves, D-backs
Free agents Marwin Gonzalez and Jed Lowrie are among several second basemen the Nationals have reached out to this offseason, Jamal Collier of MLB.com reports. The open market remains rife with familiar second basemen as the New Year approaches, though Gonzalez and Lowrie are likely the two best choices available. Both Gonzalez and Lowrie are accomplished switch-hitters, but the former is easily the more versatile of the two in the field. Gonzalez is capable of lining up everywhere in the infield and in both corner outfield positions. The Nationals, of course, will take a hit in the corner outfield if free agent Bryce Harper signs elsewhere, so Gonzalez would give them some more depth in the grass.
Here’s more from the National League:
- The Padres, who are known to be in the hunt for the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto, have shown more persistence than any other team in talks for the catcher, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. With two years of control left and Miami nowhere near contention, Realmuto could be the most obvious trade candidate in the game. However, the Marlins may have to lower their asking price in order for a deal to come together prior to next season. They’re said to want a return consisting of at least one elite prospect, and the Padres happen to boast baseball’s top-ranked farm system, per both Baseball America and FanGraphs. So, if the Padres are truly motivated to land Realmuto, they may be in better position than anyone else. That said, San Diego would not be a popular bet to contend in 2019 even with Realmuto, making it highly debatable whether the team should rob from its system in a win-now trade.
- Given the needs in the Braves’ corner outfield and pitching staff, David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that they and the Diamondbacks could be logical trade partners. Outfielder David Peralta, left-hander Robbie Ray and righty Zack Greinke may all be fits for the Braves, O’Brien posits, though he notes the Diamondbacks would have to eat a significant portion of the $95.5MM left on Greinke’s contract to make him a realistic possibility for Atlanta. There are no weighty financial obligations for either Peralta or Ray, who are each under affordable arbitration control through 2020. The Braves have already come up short in an attempt to acquire Peralta this offseason, though, and the D-backs don’t seem willing to part with Ray.
- Sticking with the Braves, they may pursue free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel if he becomes willing to accept a three-year offer, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com. That looks rather unlikely, however, considering Kimbrel’s current asking price reportedly ranges anywhere from $86MM to upward of $100M. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to see the Braves in the race for Kimbrel, whom they drafted in 2008 and helped develop into one of the greatest closers ever. Kimbrel, now 30, was a Brave from 2010-14 before moving on to the Padres and Red Sox.