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Andrew Abbott To Begin Season On Injured List

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Reds manager Terry Francona provided members of the media, including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, updates on the club’s pitching plans to start the season. Left-hander Andrew Abbott will start the season on the injured list. That will allow right-hander Carson Spiers to have a rotation spot to start the year. Meanwhile, righty Graham Ashcraft will head to the bullpen. Fellow righty Lyon Richardson has been optioned to Triple-A, per a club announcement from earlier today.

Sheldon emphasizes that Abbott hasn’t experienced a setback, just that the Reds have been moving him along gradually. At the start of camp, about a month ago, Abbott relayed that he was a bit behind schedule, taking things slowly after he finished 2024 on the injured list due to a shoulder strain. He thought he still had a chance to be ready by Opening Day but Francona said the club wouldn’t rush him to just meet that specific target.

“I don’t even think about that just because I think that’s where you make mistakes, when you put an artificial deadline,” Francona said last month. “We’re going to do what’s right for every player. If somebody isn’t ready, whether it’s him or somebody else, we’ll figure out a way to make it work until they’re ready.”

That thinking still seems to be the plan. Rather than try to force Abbott to be ready for the first week of April, they will just let him be ready whenever he’s ready. Since it seems to have been sort of a borderline call, perhaps he will only miss a very short time. IL stints can be backdated by three days, even at the start of the season, meaning he could be back as soon as 12 days into the campaign.

For now, the club will proceed without Abbott. Four rotation spots will be taken by Hunter Greene, Brady Singer, Nick Lodolo and Nick Martinez. As mentioned, the fifth will go to Spiers, who posted a 5.46 earned run average in a swing role last year. For what it’s worth, his numbers have been good in camp. He’s allowed three earned runs in 10 innings, with ten punchouts and four walks.

He likely won’t have a firm grip on a rotation spot. As mentioned, Abbott could return fairly quickly. The Reds also have Richardson and Connor Phillips as healthy options on the 40-man. Rhett Lowder is another, although he was slowed by elbow soreness early in camp and has an uncertain status at the moment. Prospect Chase Petty isn’t on the roster but should be in the Triple-A rotation and pushing for a promotion this year. Spiers has options and could be pushed to Triple-A himself at some point, or perhaps to the bullpen.

As for Ashcraft, he’s generally been a passable back-end starter of the ground ball variety. In 60 starts over the past three seasons, he has a 4.91 ERA. His 16.6% strikeout rate is subpar but his 7.6% walk rate is good and he’s kept 50.2% of balls in play on the dirt.

It was reported earlier in camp that the club had some hope that Ashcraft could thrive in a bullpen role. Per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic, Ashcraft said today that he’s excited about the move, hoping that his stuff plays up in shorter stints. His fastballs (four-seamer, sinker, cutter) have generally averaged in the 95-98 mile-per-hour range in his career. He hasn’t translated that into many punchouts yet but perhaps the relief role will allow him to find an extra gear.

Photo courtesy Sam Greene, Imagn Images.

MLBTR Podcast: The Rays’ Stadium Deal Is Dead, Rangers’ Rotation Issues, And More!

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Who is a more likely trade acquisition for the Mets, Sandy Alcántara of the Marlins or Dylan Cease of the Padres? And who would command a larger trade package? (20:50)
  • Should the Pirates trade one of their catchers? (24:20)
  • How realistic is it that the Mariners have better offense than last year and are in position to use their prospects for deadline upgrades? (28:40)
  • Should the Yankees try to plug holes with veterans or give playing time to younger guys? (34:25)
  • The Tigers are trying Javier Báez and Spencer Torkelson at different positions. Are they trying to increase the trade appeal of these players or delude themselves into thinking they could actually provide value? (38:25)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy Bill Streicher, Imagn Images

Rangers Sign Patrick Corbin

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March 19: Per the Associated Press, Corbin is guaranteed $1.1MM. As for the incentives, they are based on innings pitched and relief appearances. He’ll get $100K at 40 and 55 frames, $150K at 70 and 85, $200K at 100 and 115, $250K at 130, 145 and 160, then $350K at 170. That’s a total of $2MM. He’ll also get $100K for making 35 relief appearances, $150K for 40, $200K for 45, $250K for 50 and $300K for 55, a total of $1MM. There’s also a $250K assignment bonus if he’s traded.

Theoretically, Corbin could unlock $3MM of incentives by pitching 170 innings over 55 relief appearances, though that’s effectively impossible to do in today’s game. The incentives seem to give him a bit of extra earning power on top of his guarantee, whether he sticks in the rotation or gets bumped into a bullpen gig. Those incentives are potentially significant for a club that is so close to the CBT but wants to stay under.

March 18: The Rangers announced that they have signed left-hander Patrick Corbin to a one-year major league deal. The ISE Baseball client’s exact guarantee isn’t publicly known but Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that it will be a slightly more than $1MM, with incentives worth around a million as well. Righty Jon Gray was transferred to the 60-day injured list as the corresponding move.

For the Rangers, this would appear to be a quantity-over-quality move. Corbin’s past few years haven’t been good on a rate basis, but he has been an effective innings-eater for the Nationals. The southpaw signed a six-year, $140MM deal with Washington going into 2019. He had just wrapped up a stellar season for the 2018 Diamondbacks, tossing 200 innings with a 3.15 earned run average. While his strikeout rate had previously hovered around 20%, he punched out 30.8% of opponents that year.

His first year as a Nat could hardly have gone much better. He logged 202 innings over 33 starts in the regular season with a 3.25 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate, 8.4% walk rate and 49.5% ground ball rate. He logged another 23 1/3 innings in the postseason as the Nats charged all the way to the World Series and won it all for the first time in franchise history.

But his results declined in 2020 and never really recovered. His strikeout rate fell to 20.3% that year and his ERA climbed to 4.66. In the four full seasons since then, he has a combined 5.71 ERA, 17.7% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate. He didn’t post an ERA below 5.20 in any of those four campaigns.

But as alluded to earlier, he at least compiled bulk innings for the Nats. He has actually been about as reliable as a pitcher can be over the past decade. He missed the 2014 season due to Tommy John surgery. He was activated in July of 2015 and tossed 85 innings that year. The Snakes used him as a swingman in 2016, with Corbin logging 155 2/3 innings that year over 24 starts and 12 relief appearances. Since then, he has made at least 31 starts and logged at least 171 innings in every full season, in addition to making 11 starts in the shortened 2020 season. Any pitcher can get hurt at any time, but it’s hard to find a better track record of health in today’s game. From 2016 to 2024, Corbin’s 1,492 innings are second in baseball behind Aaron Nola.

A dependable back-end starter has some understandable appeal to the Rangers. The aforementioned Gray suffered a wrist fracture and is going to be out for a quite a while. Today’s transfer to the 60-day IL means a return in late May is the best-case scenario. Cody Bradford is shut down with some elbow soreness and faced an uncertain path back to health.

They could still have a competent rotation without those two, though there are questions with each candidate. Nathan Eovaldi has been largely healthy for the past few years but has two Tommy John surgeries on his track record and is now 35 years old. Jacob deGrom has missed most of the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery and had plenty of issues before that as well. He hasn’t gone past 92 innings in a season since 2019 and turns 37 in June. Tyler Mahle also missed most of the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery and has been battling forearm soreness in camp.

Prospect Kumar Rocker is a candidate to step up and take a job but he also missed most of the past two years due to his own TJS. Jack Leiter is impressing in camp but control still seems to be an issue, as it has been throughout his minor league career. Dane Dunning is coming off a rough year, as is non-roster invitee Adrian Houser.

A guy like Corbin taking the ball with regularity could be useful for a group like that with so many question marks. It’s also possible that he’s been better in recent years than it would appear. As mentioned, he has a 5.71 ERA over the past four years. However, his .328 batting average on balls in play and 67.4% strand rate were both on the unlucky side. His 4.99 FIP and 4.60 SIERA in that span suggest his ERA might have been inflated by about a full run. The Nationals had a team-wide -82 Defensive Runs Saved and -96 Outs Above Average during that four-year span, perhaps explaining some of the bad luck and extra runs crossing the plate.

If Corbin can take the ball and provide half-decent innings, that could be useful to the Rangers, especially at this price point. They are clearly trying to avoid the competitive balance tax in 2025, which has mostly limited them to fairly modest dealings this offseason. RosterResource projects their CBT number at $235MM, only about $6MM below this year’s $241MM base threshold of the tax. Corbin’s salary won’t move that very much, since he’s barely making more than the $760K league minimum.

Presumably, Corbin won’t be an option for the Rangers right away. He’ll need a few weeks to get himself into game shape, so he’ll likely start the season on the injured list, or perhaps he will consent to a brief optional assignment to start the year. President of baseball operations Chris Young tells Kennedi Landry of MLB.com that Corbin’s wife is due to have a baby in the next 24 to 48 hours, so he won’t even be joining the club in Arizona. He will instead join the club in Texas after they break camp.

Until Corbin is ready, the Rangers will likely give Rocker and Leiter some legit chances at locking down jobs. If those don’t work or other injury situations pop up, Corbin will slot into the rotation mix and ideally stabilize things.

Photos courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski and Geoff Burke of Imagn Images.

Braves Return Rule 5 Pick Christian Cairo To Guardians

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The Braves announced that they have returned Rule 5 pick Christian Cairo to the Guardians. Atlanta’s 40-man roster count drops to 37 but Cairo does not need to take up a roster spot with Cleveland. Atlanta also officially announced that their other Rule 5 pick, Anderson Pilar, was returned to the Marlins. The Pilar news was reported earlier today.

Cairo, 24 in June, was a fourth-round pick of Cleveland’s in 2019. His profile has been fairly consistent. He’s never hit a lot of home runs but has always drawn plenty of walks. In 1,390 minor league plate appearances, he has just 15 homers but has earned free passes at a 15.6% clip. He also stole 72 bases in 89 tries while playing all four infield positions and some left field.

Perhaps Atlanta felt Cairo was ready to jump to the big leagues and serve as a utility guy, so they grabbed him in the Rule 5. Unfortunately, he didn’t do much to impress in camp, producing a tepid .179/.294/.250 batting line.

Per the parameters of the Rule 5 draft, selected players cannot be optioned to the minors. In order to keep him, Atlanta would have had to carry Cairo on the active roster. They clearly weren’t willing to do so and let him go. Rule 5 players have to be put on waivers if they are not kept. Other clubs could claim them but would be bound by the same roster rules. Now that Cairo has been returned to the Guardians, he can provide them with some non-roster depth and try to earn his way to the big leagues the traditional way.

Diamondbacks Reassign Trey Mancini To Minor League Camp

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Opening Day is just a week away, which means the camp cuts will become more notable. The Diamondbacks made a few today. They optioned pitchers Kyle Nelson and Drey Jameson as well as infielder Jordan Lawlar to Triple-A Reno. Right-hander Scott McGough and first baseman/outfielder Trey Mancini, who were in camp as non-roster invitees, were reassigned to minor league camp.

Mancini’s reassignment is arguably the most notable move of the bunch. The veteran signed a minor league deal with the Snakes last month and put up huge numbers this spring. In 27 Cactus League plate appearances, he has a line of .440/.481/.640. An unsustainable .667 batting average on balls in play is helping him out, but it’s still a nice showing for a guy who didn’t play in 2024.

Longtime baseball fans will be familiar with Mancini’s inspirational journey. He hit 86 home runs and slashed .276/.335/.485 for the Orioles over the 2016 through 2019 seasons, production which translated to a 116 wRC+. He then missed the entire 2020 season while battling colon cancer. He made a triumphant return in 2021, hitting another 21 home runs and putting up a .255/.326/.432 line and 105 wRC+. He produced largely similar numbers in 2022, a season in which he was traded to the Astros and earned a World Series ring.

The two subsequent years were a challenge. He signed a two-year, $14MM deal with the Cubs going into 2023 but hit .234/.299/.336 for a 76 wRC+ and was released in early August. Going into 2024, he signed a minor league deal with the Marlins but opted out of that deal at the end of camp. He didn’t sign anywhere else during the 2024 season. It was reported in November that he was looking to mount a comeback bid, which was followed by a minor league deal with the Snakes in February.

What’s unclear now is if Mancini has an opt-out on this deal, as he did in his pact with the Marlins last spring. Some veterans get automatic opt-outs on minor league deals, but one of the requirements for those is that a player was on a major league roster or injured list at the end of the previous season. That was not the case for Mancini, so the only way he would have an opt-out is if he negotiated one into his contract.

After missing the entire 2024 season, perhaps he would welcome the opportunity to play in some minor league games and get back into a normal rhythm. However, given his track record and big spring numbers, he might also be interested in seeing what other opportunities are out there. The Snakes seem likely to use Josh Naylor and Pavin Smith as regulars in the first base and designated hitter spots. Mancini has experience in the outfield corners as well but has never graded out well there and the D’Backs have plenty of options for those spots.

Lawlar is perhaps the best-known name among the other players, since he has been one of the top prospects in baseball for a while. He made his big league debut late in 2023 but hit just .129/.206/.129 in 34 plate appearances. He then missed most of the 2024 season due to injury, getting into just 23 minor league games. He’s having a strong spring, hitting .294/.368/.529, but getting optioned is a sensible move.

Arizona has Geraldo Perdomo and Eugenio Suárez covering Lawlar’s primary positions of shortstop and third base. After a mostly lost season, getting regular reps in Reno is probably what’s best for him, especially since he’s still just 22 years old. Suárez is an impending free agent, so a solid campaign from Lawlar could line him up for a regular big league role next year. Or perhaps sooner, if injuries create an opening.

Jameson, 27, has some decent big league numbers. He tossed 65 innings for the Snakes over 2022 and 2023, making seven starts and 12 relief appearances. He missed the entire 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. It’s unclear if the Diamondbacks view him more as a starter or reliever going forward. After missing all of last year, perhaps pitching in Triple-A is better either way.

If he is to continue starting, they don’t have a big league role for him now anyway. They have seven viable rotation options in Corbin Burnes, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodríguez, Jordan Montgomery, Brandon Pfaadt and Ryne Nelson. However, Gallen, Kelly and Montgomery are impending free agents and Burnes can opt-out after 2026, so there are long-term jobs available if Jameson returns to starting in Reno this year.

Braves To Return Rule 5 Pick Anderson Pilar To Marlins

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The Braves are returning Rule 5 pick Anderson Pilar to the Marlins, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN. Neither club has made an official announcement related to Pilar. Atlanta’s 40-man roster count will drop from 39 to 38. Rule 5 picks have to be put on waivers before being returned to their original club. It’s unclear if that has already taken place with Pilar. Assuming he winds up back with Miami, he won’t need to take up a 40-man spot with that organization.

Pilar, 27, has spent most of his career in the Rockies organization but signed with the Marlins prior to 2024. He then had a good year across three levels, tossing 58 innings with a 2.64 earned run average. He struck out 30.6% of batters faced while issuing walks just 5.6% of the time and getting grounders at a 46.9% clip.

That prompted Atlanta to grab him in the Rule 5, which allowed them to bring him into camp and get a close-up look at him. Unfortunately, Pilar wasn’t able to make the most of the opportunity. In six spring outings, he punched out 12 opponents but also issued six walks and ten hits, leading to nine earned runs.

Players selected in the Rule 5 draft cannot be optioned to the minor leagues. Given that spring performance, a contending club like Atlanta can’t really afford to have him figure it out in meaningful games, so they’ll let him go. As mentioned, Rule 5 players need to be put on waivers if the selecting club is relinquishing them. Any claiming club would need to operate under the same parameters, not sending Pilar to the minors. If he clears waivers, he will no longer have Rule 5 status and then he’ll be offered back to the Marlins, who can keep him as non-roster depth.

Atlanta started camp with two Rule 5 picks, the other being infielder Christian Cairo. Taken from Cleveland, Cairo is hitting .179/.294/.250 in camp, which doesn’t bode well for his chances of sticking with Atlanta.

Turning back to the Atlanta bullpen, the club has tried to bolster the group on the cheap. They have kept their payroll just south of the competitive balance tax while signing various veterans to minor league deals, including Craig Kimbrel, Héctor Neris, Enyel De Los Santos, Buck Farmer, Chasen Shreve and many more. That’s a situation that could potentially lead to some tough roster choices, but the club has seemingly been making those in recent days. They traded Angel Perdomo to the Angels recently, opening up one spot. Returning Pilar opens a second. Cairo would open a third. They also released Jake Diekman, subtracting one guy from the NRI pile.

Athletics Finalize Season-Opening Rotation

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The Athletics have finalized their season-opening rotation, reports Martín Gallegos of MLB.com. The five spots will be taken by Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, JP Sears, Osvaldo Bido, and Joey Estes, though not necessarily in that order. Mitch Spence will pitch out of the bullpen, at least to start the season.

There was never much doubt about the first three. Severino has been almost exclusively starter dating back to his 2015 debut. He has had some injury absences and some wobbles in his performance, but he just posted a 3.91 earned run average over 31 starts for the Mets last year. The A’s gave him a three-year, $67MM contract in November, the largest guarantee in franchise history, hoping that he would serve as a veteran anchor for the starting staff.

Springs emerged as a viable rotation candidate with the Rays in 2022, starting the year in relief but eventually posting a 2.46 ERA over 135 1/3 innings. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of the past two seasons but he returned to the Rays last year and had a 3.27 ERA over seven starts. That was enough for the A’s to send three young players and a competitive balance round pick to Tampa in order to acquire Springs and Jacob Lopez. Sears made 64 starts for the A’s over the past two seasons with a combined ERA of 4.46.

The last two spots were a bit more up for grabs. Estes had a decent but not overwhelming season in 2024, his first extended look in the majors. He tossed 127 2/3 innings over 24 starts and one relief appearance with a 5.01 ERA. His 16.9% strikeout rate was well below average but he demonstrated strong control with a 5% walk rate. He’s had a decent spring, with 11 2/3 innings of six-run ball, a 4.63 ERA. He’s only punched out eight opponents but also given out just one walk and hit one batter.

Bido tossed 63 1/3 innings for the A’s last year over nine starts and seven relief appearances with a strong 3.41 ERA. His 10% walk rate was a tad high but his 24.3% strikeout rate was a bit above average. This spring, those rate stats have been similar, as he has struck out 25.4% of batters faced and walked opponents at an 8.5% clip. The 9.24 ERA certainly looks ugly but that’s mostly due to one really bad outing. Against Cleveland on March 7, he tossed 3 1/3 innings and allowed eight earned runs on nine hits, including four home runs, despite notching four strikeouts against just one walk.

Spence was a Rule 5 pick last year and worked out well. He logged 151 1/3 innings over 24 starts and 11 relief appearances with a 4.58 ERA. His 19.4% strikeout rate was subpar but he limited walks to a 6.4% clip and also got grounders at a strong rate of 48.4%. In the small sample of his spring work, his results have backed up slightly. He has only punched out 14% of batters faced while his grounder rate is down to 43.6%.

The spring stats are all miniscule samples but it seems Bido and Estes have edged out Spence for the final two rotation spots. As mentioned, Bido’s 9.24 ERA is rough but mostly inflated by one awful game. Since his strikeout and walk numbers are in line with last year’s, that is probably going to be overlooked as a blip. Estes has broadly posted numbers fairly similar to what he did last year. Spence, meanwhile, has seen his strikeout rate drop from an already subpar level. Again, we’re not talking about meaningful sample sizes here, but the A’s had to make a decision.

A club’s opening-day rosters are only a snapshot in time. Over the course of a long season, things will change and the mix will surely look different over the coming months. That’s especially true on a pitching staff, where injuries are almost inevitable. Spence will be in the bullpen for now but will likely have opportunities to get into the rotation later, as he did last year. The A’s will also have guys like Hogan Harris, J.T. Ginn, Gunnar Hoglund, Ryan Cusick and Lopez jockeying for opportunities. Brady Basso and Ken Waldichuk will start the season on the injured list but could factor into the mix later in the year.

Marlins Notes: Payroll, Practice Squad, Cabrera, Gillispie

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One of the key storylines of this offseason has been the aggression coming from the nomadic Athletics. They have given out three of the largest contracts in franchise history, signing free agent Luis Severino and giving extensions to Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler.

That has at least partly been motivated by a desire to keep their revenue-sharing status away from risk. As has been reported by The Athletic through the winter, that club needed to get their competitive balance tax number up to 150% of what they receive in revenue-sharing funds. Falling short of that would leave them subject to a potential grievance from the MLB Players Association. Understandably, the MLBPA wants to be assured that the funds are being spend on player salaries.

Since the A’s will reportedly receive about $70MM in revenue-sharing funds this year, they seemingly need to get their CBT number above $105MM, give or take. Thanks in part to those aforementioned deals and others, RosterResource projects them at about $115MM.

Back in December, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the Marlins were in the same situation as the A’s. Rosenthal took a look at the situation in a follow-up piece today, noting that the Marlins have not taken the same aggressive approach. RosterResource has the Marlins’ CBT number just below $87MM, more than $18MM shy of the $105MM target. As noted by Rosenthal, a midseason trade of Sandy Alcántara would drop them even further away from that line.

It seems the Marlins are far more willing to live dangerously with the situation. Rosenthal notes that the MLBPA brought revenue-sharing grievances against several clubs, including the Marlins, in 2018 and 2019. The report adds that many of those grievances were dropped but the ones against the Marlins remain active.

For the A’s, they understandably don’t want to be playing chicken with the union right now. The A’s had their revenue-sharing status revoked gradually over the course of the 2016-2021 collective bargaining agreement, with their payouts dropping by 25% annually. They only got 75% of their funds in the first year, 50% in the second, 25% in the third and none at all in the final two years. They are gradually getting their revenue-sharing status back up in the current CBA, reversing that previous plan, adding 25% per year. As they incur the costs of moving to West Sacramento and then Las Vegas, building a new stadium in the latter city, they surely don’t want to lose their payments again.

The Marlins are seemingly more cavalier. As noted by Rosenthal, the CBA runs through 2026 and these matters are collectively bargained. If the MLBPA wants to fight to strip the Marlins of their revenue-sharing payments, they will have to wait almost two years and will also have to weigh that against other CBA priorities. Rosenthal also adds that owner Bruce Sherman is likely to tout the club’s non-payroll spending, on things such as technology and infrastructure, though that’s unlikely to satisfy a union focused on player compensation. Perhaps the situation will be worth monitoring between now and the fall of 2026.

Elsewhere, the club also attracted some more negative attention from players for a different reason. As noted in a piece from Andy McCullough and Sam Blum of The Athletic, the Fish recently ran an ad on LinkedIn offering players $150 a day to be part of a practice squad, which would play against Low-A players.

The posting garnered the attention of MLB officials and players as it seemed to circumvent some existing rules. In April of 2023, the first ever CBA for minor leaguers was agreed to. That CBA established minimum salaries for minor leaguers but also gave each club a tight limit of how many minor leaguers they could have. The Domestic Reserve List, which is each club’s list of minor leaguers outside of Latin America, was dropped from 180 to 165.

The practice squad plan seemingly had the chance to skirt both the player limit and the minimum salary rules, which is why it raised flags around baseball. The Marlins pulled the ad and scuttled the plan, claiming that the ad was run before it had received proper internal vetting.

Turning to the major league roster, right-hander Edward Cabrera will start the season on the injured list, reports Christina De Nicola of MLB.com. The righty has been battling a blister on the middle finger of his throwing hand. That may seem like a minor issue but it’s a persistent one for Cabrera, since he’s had blister problems on that finger dating back all the way to 2021.

Without Cabrera, the Marlins project to have a front four of Alcántara, Ryan Weathers, Max Meyer and Cal Quantrill in the rotation. Per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald, righty Connor Gillispie could have the inside track on taking Cabrera’s spot.

Gillispie, 27, made his major league debut with Cleveland last year. He tossed eight innings over three relief appearances, allowing 2.25 earned runs per nine. He also posted a 4.05 ERA over 113 1/3 Triple-A innings, working in a swing role there. His 10.1% walk rate at that level was a bit high but he also struck out 25% of opponents. After the season, he was non-tendered and signed a major league deal with Atlanta. He was put on waivers when that club signed Jurickson Profar, getting claimed by Miami.

In camp so far, he has thrown eight scoreless. That will seemingly get him a shot to open the season in the rotation. He still has options and can be sent back down when Cabrera gets healthy. The Marlins will also have Eury Pérez coming back around the All-Star break, though a midseason trade of Alcántara could also open up some starts. Other optionable starters on the roster include Adam Mazur and Valente Bellozo.

Photo courtesy of Jim Rassol, Imagn Images

Braves To Sign Craig Kimbrel To Minor League Deal

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The Braves and right-hander Craig Kimbrel have agreed to a minor league deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The SportsMeter client will earn a $2MM salary if brought up to the big leagues, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. He’ll spend some time building up before reporting to Triple-A Gwinnett, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com.

Kimbrel, 37 in May, has been on a rollercoaster in recent years. He had a long run as one of the most effective closers in the league, starting that tenure with Atlanta. From 2010 to 2014, he tossed 289 innings for them, allowing only 1.43 earned runs per nine. His 9.6% walk rate was a bit high but he had a massive 42.2% strikeout rate in that time. He quickly became the club’s closer and earned 185 saves in a four-year stretch from 2011 to 2014. He would continue to produce similar results for a few years, going to the Padres and Red Sox.

But as alluded to, things have been far rockier lately. A free agent after 2018, Boston gave him a $17.9MM qualifying offer. Kimbrel rejected that offer, meaning that any signing club would have to forfeit at least one draft pick. That seemed to have a significant impact on his market, as he remained unsigned until after the summer draft, which was held in June at that time. No longer tied to draft pick forfeiture, he signed a three-year, $43MM with the Cubs in early June of 2019.

Perhaps it was due to missing the first half of the season, but Kimbrel’s results were awful once he became a Cub. He eventually made 23 appearances for them that year, posting an ugly 6.53 ERA. That carried over into the shortened 2020 season, as he had a 5.28 ERA that year. Over those two seasons, he still struck out 35.2% of opponents but his 14.5% walk rate was far higher than average.

In 2021, he seemed to rebound in a big way. He made 39 appearances for the Cubs that year with a tiny 0.49 ERA. His 9.5% walk rate was still above average but a massive improvement over the previous two years. He also punched out 46.7% of batters faced. He was shipped across Chicago at that year’s deadline, with the White Sox sending Nick Madrigal and Codi Heuer to the Cubs. Unfortunately, his results immediately backed up, as he posted a 5.09 ERA over the remainder of the season.

Despite that rough finish, the Sox picked up his $16MM club option, though they traded him to the Dodgers for AJ Pollock just prior to Opening Day 2022. Heading to Los Angeles seemed to work out for a while, though he again had a rough finish. He had a 33.8% strikeout rate in the first half but punched out just 20.7% of opponents in the second half. He lost the closer’s job in September and then was left off the Dodgers’ postseason roster.

Going into 2023, the Phils gave him a one-year, $10MM deal, which led to a good bounceback season. Kimbrel posted a 3.26 ERA over 71 appearances that year, with a 33.8% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. But a one-year, $13MM deal with the Orioles last year led to another downturn. He had a 5.33 ERA for Baltimore, striking out 31.5% of batters but also giving out walks 13.4% of the time. He was designated for assignment and released in September.

The overall track record is obviously impressive. Kimbrel has a career ERA of 2.59 and is fifth on the all-time saves list. He’s just seven behind Kenley Jansen, who will close for the Angels this year, and 38 away from third-place Lee Smith. But he’s been incredibly shaky in recent years, so it’s anyone’s guess what he can provide this year.

There’s little harm on a minor league deal. Atlanta can get a close-up look at him over the next few weeks and see how it goes. If he doesn’t look like he can engineer another bounceback, they can simply move on. Some veterans have guaranteed opt-outs in their minor league deals, but that wouldn’t apply to Kimbrel since he was released before the end of the 2024 season. It’s possible he negotiated some opt-outs into his deal, though no details of that nature have been reported yet.

Atlanta’s bullpen took a hit when it was reported that Joe Jiménez will likely miss the entire season due to knee surgery. They should have Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee, Pierce Johnson and Aaron Bummer locked into four spots. One of Ian Anderson or Grant Holmes could have a long relief role. That leaves three spots available early on. Daysbel Hernández is on the roster and could secure one.

The club also has a big collection of notable guys on minor league deals, including Héctor Neris, Enyel De Los Santos, Jake Diekman, Chasen Shreve, Buck Farmer and others. That is perhaps a reflection of the club hoping to avoid the competitive balance tax this year. Per RosterResource, they project to have a $230MM CBT number, about $11MM shy of the $241 base threshold. They have opted to sign many minor league deals and hope that a handful of them turn out to be hidden gems.

Kimbrel will jump into that cluster of non-roster veterans trying to earn major league jobs. He has the most impressive track record of anyone in that group but is a few weeks behind them and will have to overcome the memories of a poor 2024 season.

Photo courtesy of Tommy Gilligan and Kareem Elgazzar, Imagn Images.

Yu Darvish Questionable For Opening Day Due To Elbow Inflammation

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Padres right-hander Yu Darvish has recently been slowed in camp. While it was initially conveyed that he had some general fatigue, manager Mike Shildt today provided a more specific and more ominous diagnosis. The skipper told members of the media, including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, that the veteran righty experienced elbow inflammation after his last start.

Shildt stopped short of saying Darvish would start the season on the injured list, describing him as day-to-day. Opening Day is just over a week away, so it’s a tight window. Any time a pitcher’s throwing elbow is involved, it’s a cause for some concern. In the case of Darvish, there may be even more concern than with some other hurlers.

Darvish has dealt with some elbow problems in the past. Tommy John surgery wiped out his entire 2015 season. He was largely health for years after that, though he hasn’t logged a huge workload in the past two seasons. He was capped at 24 starts and 136 1/3 innings in 2023. He landed on the IL in late August due to right elbow inflammation and stayed there to finish the year. In 2024, he only made 16 starts and tossed 81 2/3 innings. He missed time due to neck tightness, a groin strain, some more inflammation in that throwing elbow and an undisclosed personal issue.

That makes this the third straight season that Darvish has battled some elbow inflammation. For a pitcher who is now 38 years old, that’s less than ideal. It’s especially worrisome since rotation depth is one of the key issues on the San Diego roster. The Friars already lost Joe Musgrove for the entire season, as he required Tommy John surgery in October.

Losing Musgrove left the Padres with a rotation core of Darvish, Michael King and Dylan Cease. They signed Nick Pivetta to fill one of the back-end spots. Coming into camp, candidates for the final spot including Matt Waldron, Kyle Hart, Randy Vásquez and Stephen Kolek. However, Waldron is out of commission due to an oblique strain. Hart has also been delayed by the flu and is behind the rest of the group in terms of building up. If Darvish needs to miss some time at the start of the season, that would seemingly leave two spots open behind the King/Cease/Pivetta trio.

If it’s just a short-term absence, the overall group could look stronger in a few weeks, with both Waldron and Darvish perhaps back in the mix. A more serious issue would naturally have bigger impacts. Both Cease and King are impending free agents. That means Pivetta and Darvish are the on-paper rotation nucleus for 2026. Musgrove could be back in the mix by then but may have some workload issues after missing all of 2025. Darvish is still under contract through 2028, as part of the extension he signed with the club in 2023.

It’s also possible this could impact the trade market. San Diego has notable budgetary concerns and various parts of the roster they would like to upgrade. That has led to rumors about Cease or King being available, though Cease’s name has come up far more often. It would be a tricky balance for San Diego to strike, as they would have to feel that reducing their rotation depth is worth it for multiple upgrades at left field, first base or designated hitter.

Presumably, Darvish being hurt would reduce the chances of a Cease deal in the short term, as it would be even harder to justify a rotation subtraction. Closer to the deadline, that calculus could change if the Padres don’t manage to compete. As mentioned, both Cease and King are impending free agents and would be natural trade candidates this summer if San Diego slips behind the other National League contenders.

Photo courtesy Mark J. Rebilas of Imagn Images

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