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Blue Jays, Orioles, Red Sox Interested In Max Fried

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Left-hander Max Fried is one of the top pitchers available in free agency this offseason. The Blue Jays are one of the clubs with interest, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Fried is also connected to the Jays by Jon Heyman of The New York Post, alongside the Orioles and Red Sox. Heyman also mentions that Yankees have checked in with Fried, as well as guys like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Sean Manaea, Anthony Santander and Pete Alonso, but all of those are framed as secondary to their goal of bringing Juan Soto back to the Bronx. For Boston, they have interest in another lefty starter, with Sean McAdam of MassLive reporting they are involved with Garrett Crochet of the White Sox. On the Fenway Rundown podcast (X link), McAdam also identifies the Orioles, Padres and Dodgers as key contenders for Crochet.

Fried, 31 in January, has tossed 884 1/3 innings for Atlanta in his career. In that time, he allowed 3.07 earned runs per nine. His 23.9% career strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate are both a bit better than average while his 54.4% ground ball rate is quite strong. Among pitchers with at least 850 innings tossed from 2017 to 2024, only Framber Valdez, Logan Webb and Marcus Stroman had a higher ground ball rate than Fried. Of those four, Fried had the highest strikeout rate in that stretch while only Webb had a lower walk rate.

The lefty has also been fairly durable in that time. From 2019 to 2024, he made 11 starts in the shortened 2020 campaign and tossed at least 165 innings in each full season of that stretch except for 2023. Fried has also added another 67 postseason innings as Atlanta has been a fixture of the playoffs during his career. A forearm strain did limited him to 14 starts in 2023, which is perhaps a concern. An inflamed nerve in that same forearm caused him to miss a few starts in 2024 as well, but he was still able to take the ball 29 times and log 174 1/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA.

Atlanta gave Fried a qualifying offer that he is sure to reject while looking for a notable long-term pact. MLBTR’s recent Top 50 Free Agents post predicted Fried for a $156MM deal over six years, the third pitcher on the list behind Burnes and Snell.

Given his track record of success, he’s sure to be popular in the coming weeks and months. It was reported earlier this week that the Jays are planning to pursue starting pitching. They have three established veterans in their rotation, with José Berríos, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt all under contract for next year. Bowden Francis has seemingly earned a gig as well after he posted a 1.80 ERA over his final 11 appearances in 2024.

They have Yariel Rodríguez and Jake Bloss as options for the #5 spot but there’s sense in adding depth. Rodríguez also pitched out of the bullpen at times in 2024 and could be pushed there to begin next year. Bloss only has three big league starts and hasn’t pitched much in the minors either, so having him on optional assignment would make sense. Alek Manoah could theoretically be back in the mix but likely not until late in the year, as he underwent UCL surgery in June.

RosterResource estimates the Jays are about $20MM shy of last year’s payroll, though they could non-tender some of their nine arbitration-eligible players to give themselves more room. Team president Mark Shapiro has indicated that he doesn’t expect the club’s spending to deviate significantly from last year. Giving Fried $26MM per year or something close to it would seemingly use up a decent chunk of their spending power. They also have needs on the infield, in the outfield and in the bullpen. The trade market could help in some of those areas but they will have to assess how to direct their resources in addressing multiple parts of the roster.

The Baltimore rotation just took a big hit as Burnes became a free agent, leaving them with Zach Eflin, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer as their front three. Kyle Bradish had Tommy John surgery in June and can’t be counted on for a while. Guys like Trevor Rogers or Albert Suárez could fill out the back but there’s sense in pursuing upgrades. Rogers struggled after being acquired from the Marlins while Suárez is a 35-year-old journeyman. Prospects like Chayce McDermott and Cade Povich haven’t yet been established in the major leagues.

The major question for the Orioles this offseason is what their true spending power is. It has now been over six years since they have given a multi-year deal to any free agent. Their four-year deal for Alex Cobb in March of 2018 was the last time they went beyond a one-year pact on the open market, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

Now that their rebuild is long done and David Rubenstein’s purchase of the club has become official, the general expectation is that the O’s will break that streak. But that could come in various forms, such as a two-year deal for someone like Nathan Eovaldi or a three- or four-year pact for someone like Manaea. It’s difficult to say right now whether they plan to be aggressive enough to land someone like Fried or perhaps re-sign Burnes.

For the Red Sox, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently said that the club plans to “raise the ceiling” in the rotation. They have a core group of Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford at the moment. Lucas Giolito will be back at some point after undergoing internal brace surgery on his elbow in the middle of March last year. Nick Pivetta is now a free agent but is currently deciding whether or not to accept the qualifying offer that the Sox gave him. Garrett Whitlock could be in the mix but he could also wind up in the bullpen. Quinn Priester, Cooper Criswell and Richard Fitts are possibilities but could also wind up in the minors or in the ’pen.

It appears that the Sox are setting their sights high in pursuing upgrades of that group, with Fried and Crochet both being quality pitchers. Crochet’s move from the bullpen to the rotation in 2024 could hardly have gone better, as he ultimately tossed 146 innings with a 3.58 ERA, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate.

The rebuilding White Sox have little reason to hold onto him, as Crochet is now just two years away from free agency. Since the White Sox just wrapped up the worst season of the modern baseball era, they probably won’t return to contention in that time. There’s been little to indicate that a contract extension is likely, so Crochet is seen as one of the top trade candidates of this offseason. He is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of just $2.9MM next year, meaning he could fit into the budget of any club.

White Sox general manager Chris Getz says the the club is targeting position players in their Crochet trade talks. That could allow them and Boston to line up on a deal, as the Red Sox have a group of prospects known as the “Big Four”. Each of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer and Kyle Teel are nearing their major league debuts, meaning Boston either needs to find space for them on the big league roster or perhaps make them available in trades. McAdam suggests Anthony is untouchable but is less certain about the others in that group.

The White Sox will naturally have to assess what the Red Sox are willing to give up, as well as the other clubs. The Orioles have had one of the best farms in baseball in recent years, though it’s probably not as strong as it was. Many of the top names are now on the big league roster or have been used in trades as the club has pivoted into win-now mode.

The Padres’ interest in Crochet is logical both because they seem to be interested in everybody and also because they have budgetary concerns. Last winter’s Soto trade was largely about cutting payroll and getting the club under the competitive balance tax in the wake of their TV deal falling apart. Per RosterResource, their projected 2025 spending is already slated to blow past last year’s levels and they are right around the CBT line before the offseason has really even begun in earnest. Their rotation took a big hit when Joe Musgrove required Tommy John surgery, so replacing him with someone cheap like Crochet is obviously appealing.

The Dodgers pursued Crochet at the deadline a few months ago but no deal came together. They eventually won the World Series despite their rotation being essentially whittled down to a trio of Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler. Both Flaherty and Buehler are now free agents. The Dodgers will get other guys back in the mix as they heal from injuries, such as Tyler Glasnow and Tony Gonsolin, but they could definitely find space for Crochet.

They have also been repeat CBT payors and therefore face high penalties. Per RosterResource, they are already slated to have a CBT number of $272MM next year, not far from the third tier of penalization with still plenty of offseason left to go.

As for the Yankees, the entire baseball world knows that their top priority is bringing back Soto, which will likely cost something close to $50MM per year for over a decade. If they don’t end up succeeding in bringing Soto back, they will have lots of options for redirecting that money to other parts of the roster. First base is open with Anthony Rizzo becoming a free agent. Soto’s departure would also make it viable to go after another outfielder. The club seemingly considered acquiring Flaherty at the deadline and then dealing Nestor Cortes, so some version of that could be in play again this offseason.

Theoretically, that makes Fried, Alonso, Santander or many other players viable fallback options, but it seems like those will only get real consideration after there’s more clarity with Soto. At this early stage of the offseason, there are infinite possibilities and each development will have domino effects. If some club lands Crochet, the clubs that miss out will have to pivot to other options. The clubs that don’t land Fried will have to adapt as well, as the various pieces of the free agent market and trade market are all interconnected.

Super Two Status Set At 2.132 Years Of Service

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This offseason’s cutoff for Super Two arbitration eligibility has been set at two years and 132 days of service time, per reporting from Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. This is an increase from last year, when the cutoff was 2.118.

Players automatically qualify for arbitration when they reach three years of service time and don’t already have a guaranteed contract. The top 22% of players in service time between two and three years also qualify one offseason early (so long as they spent at least 86 days of the preceding season on the active roster or MLB injured list).

Here are the thresholds from prior offseasons:

  • 2023: 2.118
  • 2022: 2.128
  • 2021: 2.116
  • 2020: 2.125
  • 2019: 2.115
  • 2018: 2.134
  • 2017: 2.123
  • 2016: 2.131
  • 2015: 2.130
  • 2014: 2.133
  • 2013: 2.122
  • 2012: 2.140
  • 2011: 2.146
  • 2010: 2.122
  • 2009: 2.139

Qualifying for arbitration early can have a significant impact on a player’s earning power. There’s the immediate benefit of potentially having a higher salary in the forthcoming season, as well as the ability to go through arbitration four times instead of the usual three.

In an extreme example, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Blue Jays was a Super Two Player after 2021. He and the Jays went year to year in arbitration, with Guerrero earning $7.9MM in 2022, followed by $14.5MM and $19.9MM in second and third arbitration seasons. MLBTR Contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $29.6MM salary in 2025, Guerrero’s fourth and final arb year.

Some players who just made this year’s cutoff include Kutter Crawford of the Red Sox (2.136) and Beau Brieske of the Tigers (2.134). Blum lists Angel Perdomo of Atlanta as a player who just missed the cutoff.

Teams have until November 22 to decide whether or not to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Players who are non-tendered become free agents without going through waivers. Those who are tendered contracts, they and the clubs have until January 9 to exchange proposed salary figures. The hearings are scheduled to take place from January 27 to February 14 in St. Petersburg, Florida. Players and clubs can avoid arbitration by agreeing to a salary at any time, though most teams have a policy of ending negotiations after the filing deadline, with exceptions for multi-year pacts.

Phillies Promote Preston Mattingly To General Manager

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The Phillies announced today that vice president and general manager Sam Fuld is pursuing his MBA at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. He is slated to graduate in May of 2026, at which point he will take the title of president of business operations. Assistant general manager Preston Mattingly has been promoted to take the role of vice president and general manager.

Fuld, 42, played in the majors from 2007 to 2015. Given that he went to college at Stanford and majored in economics, he was viewed by many in the game as a future front office member. He got hired by the Phillies in 2017 with the title of major league player information coordinator. His name was then connected to various managerial openings over the years but he stuck with the Phils and was promoted to GM going into 2021. Dave Dombrowski had just been hired as the club’s president of baseball operations and Fuld would be second on the baseball decision-making pyramid.

The two sides have seemingly been happy with the relationship. In December of 2022, Fuld and the Phils signed an extension running through December 2025. In October of 2023, the Red Sox had some interest in Fuld replace chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, though Fuld declined to be interviewed for the opening.

Since Dombrowski is 68 years old, many considered Fuld a sort of protege or a president-in-waiting, but now it seems he is planning a shift. His focus will be away from the club for the next couple of years and he will return to direct his attention to the business side, rather than the baseball side.

Mattingly, 37, will now take over as Dombrowski’s second-in-command. The son of Don Mattingly, Preston played in the minors for a while but never got higher than High-A. He pivoted to non-playing roles, working with the Padres in the scouting department. In the fall of 2021, he was plucked away by the Phils, who hired him as director of player development.

He has clearly impressed the Phils, as he got promoted to assistant general manager just two years later, in November of 2023. After a year with that title, he has gotten bumped up again. He is still second on the club’s front office hierarchy, but it’s an impressive rise in a short time and it’s possible that he could eventually replace Dombrowski, depending on how things go. For now, given that there’s more than 30 years’ difference in age between the two, Mattingly will presumably be absorbing everything he can about the role from Dombrowski as he takes on a larger piece of the club’s front office makeup.

Zach Neto Could Miss Start Of 2025 Season After Undergoing Shoulder Surgery

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Angels shortstop Zach Neto underwent shoulder surgery and could miss the start of the 2025 season. General manager Perry Minasian informed reporters such as Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com (X link) and Sam Blum of The Athletic (X link), though didn’t specify the exact nature of the injury or procedure.

Per Minasian, Zeto sustained the injury playing in Chicago during the club’s final week of the season. While playing the White Sox on September 26, Zeto was on first base and tried to take second on a ball in the dirt (video link from MLB.com). After sliding headfirst into the bag and getting thrown out, he was clutching at his right shoulder and clearly in pain. The Angels then hosted the Rangers for the final three games of the season but Neto didn’t play in those.

Over a month has now passed since that injury. Per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (X link), Neto tried rehabbing but still had some lingering issues, so it seems he had to go under the knife.

Though the exact details of the situation haven’t been relayed, the timetable is not good news for the Angels. Neto has less than two years in the big leagues but has taken over the club’s shortstop job and performed well. He just wrapped up a 2024 season in which he hit 23 home runs and slashed .249/.318/.443 for a wRC+ of 114 wRC+. The reviews of his defense were mixed but he stole 30 bases on the year. Putting his total performance together, FanGraphs graded him as worth 3.5 wins above replacement on the year, tops on the team.

The club just wrapped up their worst season in franchise history, going 63-99. Despite that, owner Arte Moreno said last month that they planned to increase payroll and try to compete in 2025. They have already acquired slugger Jorge Soler from Atlanta and signed pitcher Kyle Hendricks as they attempt to upgrade the roster.

Turning a 99-loss team into a contender was always going to be a challenge, especially for a franchise that has continually fallen short of expectations. In recent years, they have had two-way star Shohei Ohtani and something near peak Mike Trout on the same roster but couldn’t even get their win-loss record over .500. Now they’ve lost Ohtani while Trout has become increasingly absent due to injuries as he pushes towards his mid 30s.

Cobbling together a winner in 2025 will now only become more difficult as their top contributor from 2024 will be missing time. Since Neto will presumably be back at some point, they probably won’t go after a big free agent like Willy Adames to fill the spot for a temporary absence. Perhaps they will keep an eye out for multi-positional players that could fill the void and then move to another spot once Neto is healthy.

It’s also possible that they’ve already been on this path. Super utility player Scott Kingery was sent from the Phillies to the Angels last week, with the Halos adding him to their roster shortly thereafter to prevent him from reaching minor league free agency. Kingery played mostly shortstop in Triple-A this year, also spending some time at second base and center field. He hit 25 home runs and stole 25 bases, slashing .268/.316/.488. He has a line of just .229/.280/.387 in his major league career but would be a fine utility guy if he performed the way he did in the minors in 2024.

Luis Rengifo is also on the roster and can play all over the diamond, though he’s not really considered a strong defender anywhere and is probably better suited for a less-demanding spot like second base. Kyren Paris is on the 40-man but has just 105 major league plate appearances with a rough line of .110/.214/.165 in those. Perhaps the club will keep an eye out for other depth options in free agency, the trade market, or on the waiver wire.

How the roster shakes out will be determined in the months to come. For today, it’s a setback for the Halos. They have a roster with plenty of question marks but shortstop wasn’t one of them before this news.

Padres Finalize New Contract With Pitching Coach Ruben Niebla

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The Padres and pitching coach Ruben Niebla have finalized a new multi-year deal, reports Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune on X. 2024 was the final year of his previous contract but the two sides worked out a new pact to keep their relationship going, though the exact length of the new pact is unclear.

Niebla, 53 in December, was hired by the Padres going into 2022 after spending many years in the Guardians organization. The Friars have generally been successful in that time. They won 89 games in 2022 and made the playoffs, their first time doing so in a full season since 2006. They had a bit of a dip in 2023, falling to 82-80, but were back in the playoffs in 2024 with a 93-69 showing.

The pitching has generally been good in that time, with the club having a collective 3.80 earned run average over the past three seasons, good enough to get into the top 10 in the majors for that period. That’s despite some notable roster churn, as Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger departed after 2022 before Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Nick Martinez, Josh Hader and Michael Wacha departed after 2023.

It’s always tough to separate player performance from the contributions of a coach, but Niebla has enough respect in the game that he’s been considered for managerial openings. However, the Padres clearly wanted to have him back as the pitching coach. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller said this week that the club wanted to “reward the staff” that been part of the club’s recent success, per Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune on X.

Once again, the Padres will be challenged on the pitching front going into next year. Joe Musgrove recently underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss all of 2025, blowing a big hole in the rotation. They still have a strong front three of Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish but they don’t really have established options beyond that trio and both Cease and King are slated for free agency after 2025.

Changes are surely coming. The budget may be tight but Preller is often one of the most aggressive executives on the trade market. Though the roster may get shaken up in the coming months, the Friars can go into 2025 knowing the pitching coach won’t change.

Angels Sign Kyle Hendricks

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The Angels announced the signing of veteran right-hander Kyle Hendricks to a one-year deal. The Wassrman client reportedly receives a $2.5MM base salary.

Hendricks, 35 in December, will be suiting up for a team other than the Cubs for the first time if the deal gets finalized. Though he was drafted by the Rangers in 2011, he was traded to the Cubs prior to his major league debut, as part of the July 2012 trade that sent Ryan Dempster to Texas.

He was able to get to the big leagues by 2014 and quickly established himself as a solid rotation piece. He didn’t have overpowering stuff but showed a knack for limiting damage, earning the nickname “The Professor”. He made 13 starts and logged 81 1/3 innings in his debut, allowing just 2.46 earned runs per nine innings despite a low strikeout rate of 14.6%.

From there, he found a few more punchouts but his success was generally built around weak contact. From 2014 to 2020, he tossed over a thousand innings for the Cubs with a 3.12 ERA, 20.8% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate and 47.5% ground ball rate. He was a pillar of the Cubs in that time, helping them become a perennial contender and break their World Series curse in 2016.

The last few years have been a bit more rocky, however. In 2021, his strikeout rate dipped to 16.7% and his ERA climbed to 4.77. In 2022, a capsular tear in his right shoulder limited him to 16 starts with a 4.80 ERA. He didn’t require surgery but was out of action until May of 2023.

He managed something of a rebound when he got back on the hill. Last year, he posted a 3.74 ERA over 24 starts after recovering from that shoulder injury. His 16.1% strikeout rate was still low but he only walked 4.7% of batters faced and prevented batters from producing big exit velocity.

The Cubs were encouraged enough to trigger a $16.5MM club option to bring him back for 2024, part of the extension the two sides agreed to ahead of the 2019 season. But that’s a move they likely regret, as Hendricks couldn’t keep his bounceback going in 2024. He struggled out of the gate and got bumped to the bullpen. Though he eventually retook a rotation role, he finished the year with a 5.92 ERA.

There might be a bit of bad luck in there, as Hendricks was only able to strand 64.2% of baserunners this year, well below the 72.1% league average. His 4.98 FIP and 4.83 SIERA on the season suggest he deserved better than his ERA would suggest, but still aren’t outstanding numbers.

Putting those recent ups and downs together, Hendricks has a 4.80 ERA since the start of 2021. His 43.3% ground ball rate in that time is around league average and his 6% walk rate quite strong, but his 16.5% strikeout rate well below par.

Perhaps the Angels see a way to get him back on track or simply want some affordable veteran innings on what may have been a hometown discount. Veteran innings eaters can often secure deals close to eight figures, even without strong overall results. 43-year-old Rich Hill got $8MM from the Pirates going into 2023 on the heels of a season in which he posted a 4.27 ERA. Jon Lester got $5MM from the Nationals for his age-37 after posting a 5.16 ERA. Corey Kluber got $10MM from the Red Sox after putting up a 4.34 ERA in his age-36 season.

Hendricks is younger than those guys but signing for less, very early in the offseason of his very first trip to free agency. Since he grew up in Orange County, perhaps he wanted to be close to home and quickly got a deal done with the Halos, though that’s totally speculative.

Signing Hendricks would fit with the club’s longstanding aversion to spending on the rotation. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the most they’ve spent on a starting pitcher in the past decade was three years and $39MM for Tyler Anderson. Apart from that and a two-year arbitration deal for Shohei Ohtani, they haven’t given any starting pitcher a multi-year deal in that time frame.

That tendency along with struggles to develop pitching internally have led to ongoing starting pitching deficiencies in Anaheim. The club has a 4.54 rotation ERA over the past decade, 24th in baseball for that stretch, mostly ahead of clubs that underwent yearslong rebuilds. 2024 was no exception as the Angels starters had a collective 4.97 ERA this year, which was better than only the Marlins and Rockies. One of their more talented starters is going to be on the shelf for a while, as Patrick Sandoval had UCL surgery in June.

Going into 2025, the rotation mix has plenty of uncertainty. Anderson, José Soriano, Jack Kochanowicz, Reid Detmers, Caden Dana, Sam Aldegheri and Chase Silseth are some of the options, though there are question marks with each. Anderson had a 3.81 ERA but outperformed his peripherals and had a 5.43 ERA the year before. Soriano seemingly had a breakout campaign this year but didn’t pitch much in the 2020-2023 period thanks to two Tommy John surgeries. Detmers has shown promise at times but had a 6.70 ERA in the majors this year and wasn’t much better in Triple-A. Silseth spent most of 2024 battling an elbow injury. Kochanowicz only has 11 MLB starts while Dana and Aldegheri each have just three.

For a club that hopes to compete in 2025, adding to that rotation is a sensible path. There are more exciting options than Hendricks out there but his track record of reliability is quite strong. His modest earning power lined up with the club’s track record when it comes to not spending much on the rotation, so the stars have aligned to have Hendricks be close to home this year. For the Cubs, they no longer have any connection to their curse-breaking team on the roster, as Hendricks was the final holdout from that club.

Bruce Levine of 670 The Score (X link) first relayed that the two sides were nearing a one-year deal. Jon Heyman of The New York Post (X link) pegged the value around $3MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post (X link) first reported the $2.5MM number.

White Sox Targeting Position Players In Garrett Crochet Trade Talks

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Left-hander Garrett Crochet figures to be one of the top trade candidates this offseason, recently getting the top spot on MLBTR’s list. White Sox general manager Chris Getz doesn’t seem to be too concerned with hiding Crochet’s availability, telling Bruce Levine of 670 The Score that Sox are looking to get position players back in return.

“We are focusing on position player return,” Getz said. “That is our primary focus in any trade talks. The right players have to be there. We can’t force anything. We certainly need to improve our offense. That is very clear.”

The Sox obviously need to improve everything, since they just wrapped up the worst season of the modern baseball era, but the offense could definitely be upgraded. The club hit a collective .221/.278/.340 in 2024. Their wRC+ of 75 indicates that the team as a whole was about 25% worse than the league average hitter. That was easily the worst mark in the league, with the Rockies a distant second-last with a wRC+ of 82. The Sox also subtracted from their lineup by trading Tommy Pham, Eloy Jiménez and Paul DeJong at last year’s deadline.

Upgrading that offense is an understandable priority, though they will have to assess any trade offers on their overall merits. The club presumably wouldn’t take a package of mediocre position players over really good pitchers just because that’s their target, but the preference could be notable.

It’s also understandable since pitching can be mercurial. Many hyped-up prospects get injured or simply don’t live up to their pedigree. Even the prospects that do pan out can have lengthy absences due to elbow or shoulder surgeries. As such, it’s not uncommon for rebuilding clubs to focus on building a position player core, later adding pitching through trade or free agency.

The Sox also don’t really have any core position players that would block any new guys that would come over in a potential trade. Andrew Benintendi, Andrew Vaughn and Luis Robert Jr. are set for free agency after three more years and the club is surely willing to listen to offers on any of them. The rest of the roster doesn’t have many other guys that could really be called established major leaguers.

Whatever the eventual trade package, it seems highly likely that Crochet will be available and highly coveted, which is why MLBTR gave him the top spot on our trade candidates list. Crochet was a high draft pick that quickly made his major league debut, but spent a few years either working out of the bullpen or being injured. Coming into 2024, he had just 85 1/3 professional innings on his track record over the 2020 through 2023 seasons. The Sox stretched him out in 2024 and he eventually tossed 146 innings with a 3.58 earned run average, 35.1% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate and 45.1% ground ball rate.

Those unique circumstances contribute to his availability. Despite the limited track record, he has racked up over four years of service time and is now just two years away from the open market. Given how bad the Sox were in 2024, it’s hard to envision them returning to contention in that time frame.

They could sign Crochet to an extension but he is on track to hit free agency after his age-27 season. That means he has a massive amount of future earning power and may not want to give that up, especially to stay with a franchise that is in disarray and reportedly for sale. Crochet did say he’s open to extension conversations but also seemed to acknowledge that it wasn’t likely to come together. Looking at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, the White Sox have never given any player more than the $75MM deal they gave to Benintendi.

If Crochet isn’t a part of the long-term plans, then it makes sense to listen to trade offers. The Sox were already shopping him at the deadline a few months ago but couldn’t nail down a deal. Given that Crochet was pushing his workload beyond his previous levels, there were concerns about how he would hold up down the stretch and into a playoff run in October.

The lefty and his camp indicated that they would want to sign a contract extension before risking his health by being a part of such a postseason push, which seemed to scuttle the chances of a deal coming together. The Sox kept him and backed off his usage as they played out the string on their woeful season, not letting Crochet pitch more than four innings in any outing after the month of June.

Those concerns figure to be dissipated now. Crochet held up enough to get his innings total reasonably close to a full starter’s workload, meaning he and any team employing him could reasonably expect him to hold up for a full season, even if that means taking the ball in the month of November. The Sox now have the advantage of potentially marketing him to all teams, whereas presumably the clubs contending in 2024 had more interest at the deadline.

His appeal to other clubs will go beyond his performance. Due to missing so much time earlier in his career due to injury, he hasn’t yet been able to push his salary up too high. He qualified for arbitration for the first time a year ago but only made $800K, barely above this year’s $740K league minimum. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $2.9MM salary for Crochet next year, with the lefty due for another bump via arbitration in 2026.

For a pitcher of Crochet’s caliber, there’s tremendous surplus value there. Veteran back-end guys like Martín Pérez, Wade Miley and Alex Wood signed deals in the $8-8.5MM range last winter while the top pitchers have gone beyond $40MM in terms of average annual value. To get an ace-like performance for a salary barely above the league minimum is a tremendous bargain.

It also could be hugely important for clubs that pay the competitive balance tax. There are varying tax levels depending on how many consecutive years a club has been a tax payor and how far above the base threshold they are, but ticking all the boxes can get a club to a 110% tax rate. That means that paying a pitcher a deal with a $20MM salary would add another $22MM in taxes, just as a hypothetical example. Saving that money and getting Crochet instead would naturally be very attractive.

All of that adds up to make Crochet one of the most interesting players for the coming months and it gives Getz an incredibly important decision in shaping the future of his franchise. He is likely going to be spending a good deal of his winter on the phone, assessing different offers from all over the league.

Red Sox, Orioles, Dodgers Interested In Teoscar Hernández

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Free agent Teoscar Hernández just won a World Series and is now drawing interest in the early days of the offseason. The Red Sox and Orioles are interested in the outfielder, reports Jon Morosi of MLB Network on X. The Dodgers and Hernández also have mutual interest in a reunion, per Russell Dorsey of Yahoo Sports.

Hernández, 32, was a free agent a year ago and received interest from the Red Sox at that time. Chris Cotillo of MassLive (X link) reported that the Sox offered him $28MM over a two-year deal, numbers that were later confirmed by the player himself when speaking to Rob Bradford of WEEI and the Baseball Isn’t Boring Podcast.

He turned down that offer and instead took a slightly smaller guarantee on a one-year pact with the Dodgers. That deal paid him $23.5MM with some deferrals, but perhaps most importantly, allowed him to return to free agency after hopefully having a bounceback year.

That bet on himself looks like it will pay off well. From 2020 to 2022, he slashed .283/.333/.519 for the Blue Jays, production that led to a 132 wRC+. His defense wasn’t great but he did steal 24 bases in that stretch and the offense was undeniable. He was traded to the Mariners prior to 2023 and had a down year at the plate, hitting .258/.305/.435 for a 106 wRC+. With that weak platform year, his free agent market was fairly tepid, including the aforementioned offer from Boston.

But his year with Los Angeles could hardly have gone much better, as he hit .272/.339/.501 for a 134 wRC+, right back to his previous form. His defensive metrics still weren’t great but he swiped another 12 bags. He got into 16 playoff games and hit .250/.352/.417 for a 119 wRC+. On MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents post, we predicted that he could secure a three-year, $60MM deal this time around.

Whether he can get that deal or not, the Sox would almost certainly have to increase their offer from a year ago. If they are willing to do so, his right-handed swing would fit well on a roster with plenty of left-handed bats. Rafael Devers, Triston Casas, Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu all hit from the left side, as do prospects Kyle Teel, Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony.

Last year, the Sox complemented their lefty outfielders by having Tyler O’Neill, who had a good season in a specific way. He was injured a few times, struck out a bunch and did most of his damage against lefties, but still had a strong season overall. He hit 31 home runs in 113 games for a .241/.336/.511 slash line and 131 wRC+, all that despite a 33.6% strikeout rate and a meager 91 wRC+ against righties.

Hernández should be ranked a bit above O’Neill as he has a slight edge in most of those areas. His 28.8% strikeout rate in 2024 was high but not as bad as O’Neill’s. He does have platoon splits, though not to the same extent as O’Neill. Hernández has a 140/113 wRC+ split in his career and was at 154/126 in 2024. He’s also far more durable, having played at least 125 games in each of the past six full seasons, whereas O’Neill has only hit that number once in his career.

Either could work as the needed righty for Boston. Hernández would arguably be better but would also likely cost more. O’Neill was predicted by MLBTR for a three-year deal just like Hernández but with a lesser guarantee of $42MM. However, Hernández received a qualifying offer from the Dodgers and is therefore tied to draft pick forfeiture, whereas O’Neill is not. Per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe on X, the Sox remain engaged with O’Neill’s camp and could potentially bring him back.

Either should fit in the club’s budget. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of $136MM right now, more than $50MM below where they were in 2024. They’re about $70MM below the competitive balance tax line. They have needs on the pitching staff but could certainly spend on an outfielder if they want.

For the Orioles, they are a logical fit for similar reasons. Their lineup features lefties Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, Cedric Mullins, Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Jackson Holliday. Prospects Samuel Basallo and Dylan Beavers are also lefty swingers. Their outfield just lost switch-hitting outfielder Anthony Santander to free agency, so Hernández could slot in as Santander’s replacement if the O’s don’t re-sign him.

Orioles general manager Mike Elias recently identified a right-handed hitting outfielder as an offseason target, per Jake Rill of MLB.com. The big question is how much spending capacity the club will have this winter. In the past six years, they haven’t given a free agent a multi-year deal, with Craig Kimbrel’s $13MM guarantee on a one-year pact their largest expenditure.

For much of that time, they were rebuilding and then the club was up for sale. David Rubenstein took over ownership officially just as the 2024 season was getting started. It has been expected that the club will get a bit more aggressive and their trade deadline behavior gave some encouraging signs in that regard. They took on notable money to acquire Zach Eflin and Seranthony Domínguez, but it’s still unknown exactly how far they plan to go this winter.

“Whether it’s free-agent spending or it’s support for my staff or the baseball organization, I think we have everything that we need financially to make the optimal decisions for the long-term health of the franchise. And a lot of that’s going to be in my judgment,” Elias said this week. “But certainly, if we have something that we want to do and we need financial support for it, I’m exceedingly confident that that’s going to be there.”

Returning to the Dodgers is also easy to see, especially with the club planning to move Mookie Betts back to the infield next year. That means the projected outfield currently consists of Andy Pages, James Outman and utility guys like Tommy Edman and Chris Taylor. While the Dodgers could easily fit Hernández in there, they will probably first see how things play out with their reported interest in Juan Soto.

MLBTR Podcast: Breaking Down The Top 50 Free Agents List

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss our annual Top 50 Free Agents post. The conversation veered into these specific topics…

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Mets’ Spending Power, Juan Soto Suitors, And The Rangers’ Payroll Limits – listen here
  • The World Series, The White Sox Reportedly For Sale, And Tropicana Field – listen here
  • Changes In Minnesota, Cubs’ Prospect Depth, And Possibilities For The O’s – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Mookie Betts Likely Moving Back To Infield

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Dodgers general manager Brandon Gomes spoke to members of the media at the general manager meetings, including Joel Sherman of The New York Post (X link) and Bob Nightengale of USA Today (X link). Gomes relayed that the Dodgers are probably going to have Mookie Betts move back to the infield, either at shortstop or second base.

In the first half of 2024, Betts playing the infield was an incredible storyline, as he moved to the dirt after years of being established as a right fielder. He had been a second baseman as a prospect with the Red Sox but had moved to the grass in deference to Dustin Pedroia. He eventually won multiple Gold Gloves and other fielding awards for his work in right field but amazingly started switching back more recently.

The Dodgers gave Betts brief looks at second base in each season from 2020 to 2022 but then ramped it up, putting him there for 485 innings in 2023. They also started dabbling with Betts as a shortstop that year, with 98 innings at that spot.

The club was evidently pleased with the experiment, as manager Dave Roberts announced in December that Betts would be the club’s primary second baseman in 2024, with Gavin Lux planned as the regular shortstop. But when Lux struggled with his throws during spring training, the Dodgers decided to flip them.

That suddenly left Betts looking to essentially learn one of the most demanding positions on the fly, but it seemed to be working well enough for a time. He got a -4 grade from Outs Above Average at shortstop this year but +3 Defensive Runs Saved. He did that while producing a massive .304/.405/.488 batting line and 153 wRC+ through the middle of June, seemingly putting himself in the Most Valuable Player conversation.

Unfortunately, it was at that time that he suffered a hand fracture after being hit by a pitch and then missed about two months. While he was on the shelf, the Dodgers decided that he would be moved back to his familiar right field position once he healed up.

Now it seems that Betts will get another shot on the infield, which will immediately lead to speculation about the club’s offseason pursuits. The top free agent this winter is corner outfielder Juan Soto, though he is not the only intriguing guy in that category. The Dodgers could consider bringing back Teoscar Hernández or pursuing guys like Anthony Santander, Jurickson Profar, Tyler O’Neill or Michael Conforto.

The infield market, meanwhile, isn’t as deep. Gleyber Torres is arguably the top option at second base despite a mediocre season. He has generally hit well in his career but was barely league average in 2024. Since he’s not considered a strong defender, that dip at the plate was concerning. At shortstop, there is a strong option in Willy Adames, who has interested the Dodgers before. But apart from him, the top option is Ha-Seong Kim, who might miss the first half of the upcoming season due to shoulder surgery.

Given the disparity between those markets, having Betts on the infield perhaps gives the Dodgers the best opportunity to take advantage of the offseason conditions. Depending on how things play out, it could also give them some trading options. Between Betts, Lux, Tommy Edman, Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor, they could perhaps make someone in that group available. On the other hand, Edman and Taylor are super utility guys who can also play the outfield, meaning they could be valuable in providing support on the grass.

Without Betts, the outfield mix consists of Andy Pages, Edman, Taylor and James Outman. Catching prospect Dalton Rushing has started getting some outfield reps since he’s fairly blocked behind the plate with the recent Will Smith extension, as well as the presence of fellow catching prospects Diego Cartaya and Hunter Feduccia.

Perhaps this entire roster picture will change as the offseason develops and the Dodgers navigate their options in the coming months. They could add an outfielder or perhaps an infielder, then pivot Betts back to the outfield. The flexibility gives the Dodgers plenty of options for how to proceed and makes for a fascinating career arc for Betts.

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