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Players Added To 40-Man Roster: American League

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We’re going to see a whole lot of players added to 40-man rosters in advance of tonight’s deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 draft. We will use this post to track those contract selections from American League teams that are not otherwise covered on the site.

AL West:

  • The Athletics made just one addition to the 40-man roster, righty Daulton Jefferies, which resulted in the DFA of righty Jharel Cotton (more on that move here).
  • The Rangers will add at least four players to their 40-man, per MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). Infielder Sherten Apostel, outfielder Leody Taveras, and hurlers Demarcus Evans and Tyler Phillips are all reportedly set to get a slot. Taveras is the most exciting name of this bunch; by the reckoning of some observers, he’s one of the club’s best prospects. Apostel came over in the Keone Kela trade. The two pitchers are upper-minors arms who could contribute in 2020.
  • There’s 40-man movement elsewhere in Texas as well. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets that the Astros have tacked on four players: Taylor Jones, Cristian Javier, Enoli Paredes, and Nivaldo Rodriguez. The last of those is the one that came from the farthest reaches of the prospect map (half a season of High-A ball); clearly, the ’Stros see him as an up-and-comer and were worried other teams would as well. Jones had a strong season at Triple-A and could fight for a bench spot. Javier and Paredes could be in the MLB bullpen mix after running up the farm ladder with high strikeout rates in 2019.
  • The Angels have selected second baseman/outfielder Jahmai Jones and lefty Hector Yan, according to the club. Both players (Jones – No. 6; Yan – No. 17) rank among the Angels’ top 20 prospects at MLB.com. The 22-year-old Jones is a 2015 second-rounder who spent the past two seasons at the Double-A level, where he hit .234/.308/.324 in 544 plate appearances in 2019. Yan, a 20-year-old native of the Dominican Republic, rose to Single-A ball this past season and notched a 3.39 ERA/3.17 FIP with a whopping 12.22 K/9 against 4.29 BB/9 over 109 innings.

AL Central:

AL East:

  • Infielder Santiago Espinal and righty Thomas Hatch were the Blue Jays’ pair of roster additions on Wednesday. Toronto jettisoned Tim Mayza and Justin Shafer from the 40-man roster in a pair of corresponding moves, as explored at greater length here.
  • The Orioles announced that they’ve selected the contracts of left-hander Keegan Akin, right-hander Dean Kremer, infielder/outfielder Ryan Mountcastle and outfielder Ryan McKenna. Mountcastle, a former first-rounder, has long been considered among the organization’s most promising minor leaguers. Akin posted a down year in Triple-A in 2019 but has generally been successful and is viewed as a near-MLB ready arm.
  • The Red Sox have added infielders C.J. Chatham and Bobby Dalbec, outfielder Marcus Wilson, and lefties Kyle Hart and Yoan Aybar to their 40-man, the team announced.The most hyped farmhand there is Dalbec, whom MLB.com ranks as the Red Sox’s second-best prospect. The 24-year-old reached the Triple-A level for the first time in 2019 after obliterating Double-A pitching, and he posted a .257/.301/.478 line with seven home runs and 29 strikeouts against just five walks over 123 trips to the plate.

Players Added To 40-Man Roster: National League

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We’re going to see a whole lot of players added to 40-man rosters in advance of tonight’s deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 draft. We will use this post to track those contract selections from National League teams that are not otherwise covered on the site.

NL West

  • The Dodgers announced that they’ve selected the contracts of right-hander Mitchell White, infielder/outfielder Zach McKinstry and outfielder DJ Peters. Both White and Peters are considered to be among the club’s top 15 prospects. McKinstry isn’t generally ranked inside L.A.’s top 30, but the 24-year-old had a big season between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019 while appearing at six defensive positions (shortstop, second base, third base and all three outfield slots).
  • The Diamondbacks announced that they’ve selected the contracts of right-handers Taylor Widener and Riley Smith as well as the contracts of infielders Andy Young and Wyatt Mathisen. Widener, 24, was one of the organization’s best pitching prospects coming into the season but was blown up for an eye-popping 8.10 ERA in 100 innings. He’s only a year removed from 137 1/3 innings of 2.75 ERA ball and an 11.5 K/9 mark in Double-A, however. Smith, 24, was sharp in Double-A before struggling in Triple-A — like many pitching prospects throughout the league (and with the D-backs in particular). Young, acquired in the Paul Goldschmidt trade last winter, hit 29 homers while playing three infield positions between Double-A and Triple-A. Mathisen, 26 in December, hit .283/.403/.601 in 345 Triple-A plate appearances.
  • The Giants, surprisingly, did not add anyone to their 40-man roster prior to tonight’s deadline.
  • The Rockies selected the contracts of infielder Tyler Nevin, left-hander Ben Bowden and right-handers Ashton Goudeau and Antonio Santos (Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post first reported the news on Twitter). Those four moves will fill the team’s 40-man roster. Of the four, Bowden and Nevin draw the most fanfare. Nevin, the No. 38 pick in the 2015 draft and son of former MLB slugger Phil Nevin, posted deceptively solid numbers in an extremely pitcher-friendly Double-A environment in 2019 (.251/.345/.399 — good for a 122 wRC+). Bowden, a second-round pick in ’16, posted gaudy strikeout numbers but struggled in Triple-A after dominating in Double-A in 2019.
  • The Padres selected outfielder Jorge Ona’s contract and designated outfielder Nick Martini for assignment, as outlined here.

NL Central

  • The Cardinals announced the additions of Jake Woodford, Elehuris Montero and Alvaro Seijas while designating righty Dominic Leone for assignment (as detailed here at greater length).
  • Outfielder Corey Ray and right-hander J.P. Feyereisen will head onto the Brewers 40-man, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter). It’s not yet known if the team will make further roster additions, but it would have five additional spots to work with to do so. Ray was the fifth overall pick in the 2016 draft but is coming off of a rough season. Feyereisen, who was added in a quiet September swap, will have a chance to challenge for MLB relief opportunities. Milwaukee also added infielder Mark Mathias to the 40-man roster after acquiring him in a trade with the Indians tonight.
  • The Cubs announced that they’ve added catcher Miguel Amaya, infielder Zack Short and right-handers Tyson Miller and Manuel Rodriguez to the 40-man roster. Amaya is the most highly regarded of the bunch, ranking second among Chicago farmhands and drawing some top 100 consideration at MLB.com.
  • Four additions to the 40-man were announced by the Reds, who have selected the contracts of catcher Tyler Stephenson and right-handers Tony Santillan, Ryan Hendrix and Tejay Antone. All four rank within the club’s top 30 at MLB.com, headlined by Santillan at No. 4 and ranging all the way to Antone at No. 30. Santillan thrived in a brief Double-A debut in 2018 but struggled there in a larger 2019 sample (4.84 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 4.8 BB/9 in 102 1/3 innings). He’s still just 22, though, and is regarded as a potential big league starter. Stephenson is a former first-round pick who hit well in a highly pitcher-friendly Double-A setting (.285/.372/.410; 130 wRC+). Hendrix posted big strikeout numbers as a reliever in 2019, while Antone displayed sharp ground-ball skills as a starter and reached Triple-A for the first time.
  • The Pirates added prospects Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, Will Craig, Blake Cederlind and Cody Ponce to the 40-man roster while also designating four pitchers for assignment (as explored in greater length here). Lefty Williams Jerez and right-handers Dario Agrazal, Montana DuRapau and Luis Escobar were cut loose.

NL East

Quick Hits: MiLB Restructuring, Orlando, Angels, KBO

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As we wait for the day’s avalanche of transactions to be triggered, let’s take a look at a few stray notes from around the game …

  • The MLB plan to dramatically reshape the minor-league landscape has unsurprisingly created strong reactions in localities around the country. Now, there’s a growing push-back on the national level, as Claire Bessette of Connecticut outlet The Day reports. A large group of congressmen has already written a letter of concern, prompting a rejoinder from the league. It’s not clear at this point whether there’s any possibility of concerted federal action, let alone what that might look like, but there appears to be the makings of a coordinated effort by those impacted to pool resources. Those interested in learning more should also check out J.J. Cooper’s take at Baseball America.
  • Orlando Magic co-founder Pat Williams announced his intentions to spearhead an Orlando-area MLB franchise. Joe Kepner of WFTV is tracking the story on his Twitter feed. The initial name (Orlando Dreamers) and logo mock-ups are not especially encouraging, to be frank, but it’s only a starting point. There isn’t really much in the way of specifics at the moment and it’s not clear whether this effort will gain any traction. Williams says it’d be premature to consider a location for a ballpark, for instance, so clearly any sustained push is a ways off.
  • There are a few current MLB teams that can explain how sticky stadium situations can be (though others have made out just fine). The Angels have had quite a lot of stability for a long period of time but have also been engaged in a sometimes-tense negotiation with the city of Anaheim. Now, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports, there’s an end-of-year deadline for a decision whether to opt out of the remaining decade on the Angel Stadium lease. While there isn’t much time left until that stopping point, however, Shaikin explains that nobody appears to be very concerned. If a mutually agreeable deal hasn’t been finalized, an extension can simply be sorted out. All indications remain that the Halos will stay home.
  • Feel like MLB free agency is moving slowly? You’re not alone. Korean fans are also feeling the freeze, as Kang Yoo-Rim wrote recently in the Joongang Daily. It seems there are some KBO-specific factors that are influencing the situation there, including a free agent class full of older players and the restrictive rules regarding signings of other teams’ players. But one also wonders whether the lack of movement from MLB teams is also a factor. Forget about the major free agents; this is about the players seeking the best possible opportunities to earn some money while they are still in their prime. Few such players have secured non-roster invitations or small MLB contracts to this point of the winter, so KBO teams are perhaps not yet sure how best to maximize their money and limited foreign-player roster spots.

MLBTR Poll: Which Top Starter Will Sign First?

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We’ve seen movement on the relief market already, courtesy of the Braves. But the starting pitching market remains absolutely wide open and loaded with options, even after Jake Odorizzi decided against a full-blown open-market experience in favor of taking the qualifying offer.

Something will have to give at some point. There’s chatter already that some top players prefer not to experience the kind of lengthy waiting game that held sway over much of the market the past two winters. As importantly, the same appears to hold true for some teams. While there’s a lot of rotation supply, there’s also quite a lot of demand.

Indeed, there are so many starters populating MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents that it would be silly to consider them all here. We’ll focus on the eight top names — those that we see as having $20MM+ earning power on the open market. Will one of the big guns (Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg) go early and set the market? Or will some team seek to bypass a major bidding war by quickly nabbing one of the next-best names available (Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu)? Sturdy veterans Dallas Keuchel and Cole Hamels might seek early deals; the former lagged last winter and the latter has made clear he’s willing to do a one-year contract with a contender. Then again, there could be a run on Michael Pineda, who looks to be an interesting upside play.

What do you expect? (Poll link for app users. Response order randomized.)

The Braves Suddenly Have A Good But Aging Bullpen

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Attentive Braves fans will know not to get their hopes up too much based upon the team’s first early moves. The club got out ahead of the market last year as well, but mostly sat out after making its primary moves. In Alex Anthopoulos’s second year as GM, he has done even more volume right off the bat but hasn’t matched last year’s Josh Donaldson signing in terms of dramatic impact.

Let’s evaluate:

That’s exactly $30MM in 2020 salary — possibly enough to preclude a more significant payroll addition. The Braves are now over $100MM in commitments for the season to come, which is approaching the limits for an organization that has never topped $122MM in Opening Day payroll and started shy of that figure in each of the past two seasons.

So does this mean that the Braves won’t end up adding a new star to the roster? Maybe! But they’re actually still well positioned to do just that, in one of several ways. The Braves can still play near the upper reaches of the free agent market if they shed some salary. In particular, it wouldn’t be much trouble to move the contracts of Ender Inciarte and Shane Greene (the latter could also be non-tendered if it came to it) if the team prefers to spend elsewhere. That could free something like $14MM in cash. And there’s still also the trade market, through which the Braves can convert prospect capital into lower-salaried talent.

What’s notable about this early run of spending and roster decisions, then, isn’t so much that it means the Braves boosted their relief corps over other moves. Rather, it’s that the Braves — of all teams — have now compiled a rather strong, not especially cheap collection of old guy relievers.

That’s part-joke, part god’s honest truth. The move toward grizzled hurlers began at the 2019 deadline, when Martin, Greene, and Mark Melancon came aboard. Here’s the Opening Day 2020 age and salary of the Braves pen as presently constituted:

  • Mark Melancon, 35, $14MM
  • Will Smith, 30, $13MM
  • Chris Martin, 33, $7MM
  • Shane Greene, 31, $6.5MM (projected)
  • Darren O’Day, 37, $2MM
  • Luke Jackson, 28, $1.9MM (projected)
  • Grant Dayton, 32, $800K (projected)

Conspicuously absent from that list: homegrown young hurlers. Sean Newcomb may yet end up in the pen if he isn’t needed or deemed capable of handling a rotation spot. Regardless, it’s certainly not the bullpen look that would’ve been anticipated this time last year. It’s really an interesting shift in approach; even a few weeks ago, it still seemed safe to presume the Braves were still planning on utilizing a rotating cast of younger pitchers to fill out the rotation. Indeed, I wrote that the Braves could “consider their bullpen fully accounted for” after inking O’Day. Wrong!

That is a strong pen on paper. That’s welcome after a messy 2019. Smith has blossomed into one of the game’s better overall relievers. It still feels surprising the Braves took on Melancon’s full remaining salary, but he was very strong overall in 2019. Martin obliterated the rest of the sport with a 13.0 K/BB ratio last year. The peripherals were also excellent for Jackson, even if he faltered at times. O’Day and Dayton have been good before and showed signs of recapturing their form. Though Greene’s late-season run with the Braves wasn’t quite what might’ve been hoped for, it was hardly a disaster and he ended the season with a cumulative 2.30 ERA.

That said, it must be a bit disappointing for the Braves that they’ve ended up needing to commit this kind of cash to get where they feel comfortable in the relief unit. The waves of young arms have thus far largely disappointed outside of a few notable exceptions. The idea had been that the club’s best starting pitching prospects would not only form up an imposing rotation but spill over into the bullpen, linking up with the team’s short-inning pitching prospects to create an overwhelming overall staff.

But this may just set the stage for the next big moves from Anthopoulos. Quite a few young Braves pitchers still hold promise. Not all will get their chance to chase their ceilings in Atlanta. This year’s slate of players requiring Rule 5 protection has pushed the Braves roster nearly to full capacity with other players still to be added. There’s still plenty of talent pressure coming from lower down the farm system, reducing the available opportunities.

I think you see where I’m heading with this. Without bullpen slots available to run out young pitchers, and without ample payroll capacity remaining, the Braves now seem clearly positioned to swap out talented but not-yet-established hurlers for veterans that can make a near-term impact on the MLB roster. When the dust settles, the Braves will still have plenty of pitching depth — some of which will surely end up carrying a significant portion of the relief load this year even after the recent signings — and a good bit of high-end talent still rising. But some of the arms will end up elsewhere. Which? That’s hard to guess. In theory, dozens of Atlanta hurlers — especially those already taking up space on the club’s 40-man roster — could be talked about in trades.

Tomorrow Is The Deadline For Rule 5 Protection

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As reflected in MLBTR’s handy list of key offseason dates, November 20th is the deadline for teams to protect otherwise-eligible prospects from this year’s Rule 5 draft. Teams must add such players to their 40-man rosters by 8pm ET tomorrow or risk losing them to competitors when selections are made on December 12th.

Eligibility is determined by reference to the age and timing of entry to the professional ranks. A player that signed at 18 years of age or younger and has five seasons of pro ball is Rule 5 eligible if he is not added to the 40-man roster in advance of the deadline. Players that signed at 19 or older and have four seasons of professional experience are also eligible to be selected if they’re not added to the 40-man roster tomorrow. (In other words, college draftees out of the 2016 class, high school draftees out of the 2015 class and most international amateurs signed in the 2015-16 international period are eligible this year if not protected.)

Teams that make selections in the draft will gain conditional control over the chosen players. To be kept permanently, a player must stay on the MLB roster for an entire season, with at least ninety days spent on the active roster. It’s plausible to imagine that the addition of a 26th active roster spot this year will facilitate the utilization of the Rule 5 process.

Full coverage of the Rule 5 landscape will necessarily await tomorrow’s decisions. The need to make tough calls will prompt some action around the game, though it remains to be seen whether that’ll be the usual run of moves on the margins or if a blockbuster or two could be swung. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper is as usual champing at the bit, so he has released a prediction of some interesting players that are relatively likely to be left unprotected.

As you might imagine, it’s easier to account for protection of prospects for teams with extra 40-man roster space. But it’s not as simple as having an opening. You also must be able to maintain a player in that spot throughout the winter and into the season. Adding a player that wouldn’t have been selected (or wouldn’t have lasted on an active roster) therefore carries its own risk: if you end up needing the roster space, you might have to expose such a player to outright waivers in the middle of the season. It’s worth noting, too, that some teams have already added players that they wish to protect.

There are tons of factors that go into these decisions, but roster space does still matter. Here are the number of open 40-man spots for each MLB team, as things stand this morning (per MLB.com’s roster pages):

10: Nationals

8: Cubs, Twins

7: Braves, Brewers, Tigers, White Sox

6: Astros, Red Sox

5: Mariners, Diamondbacks, Marlins, Orioles, Phillies, Reds

4: Rangers, Rockies, Yankees

3: Dodgers, Mets, Rays

2: Angels, Cardinals, Indians

1: Pirates

0: Athletics, Blue Jays, Padres, Giants, Royals

Elements of this post are adapted in part from a prior post by MLBTR’s Steve Adams.

Yoenis Cespedes Appears To Have Resumed Baseball Activities

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In a since-deleted Instagram video posted by minor-league Mets coach (and long-time former big leaguer) Endy Chavez, rehabbing slugger Yoenis Cespedes is shown taking batting practice. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo covered things via Twitter.

While this fleeting glance at Cespedes doesn’t really tell us much, it’s the first meaningful look at his progress in quite some time. Serious heel and other leg injuries cost Cespedes huge chunks of the 2017-18 campaigns and all of 2019. All told, he has played in just 119 games since the close of his strong 2016 season.

Cespedes has continued to hit when available, and he’s still being paid quite handsomely for one more season ($29.5MM), so the club has an obvious interest in getting him back on the field. At times it seemed a late-2019 return might have been possible, but there was never anything close to a run-up towards the majors.

GM Brodie Van Wagenen seemingly downplayed the likelihood of a significant contribution in 2020 when he addressed the matter recently, saying that lacks “enough information to predict when [Cespedes is] going to be back.” Of course, there is one other way to read that. The Mets understandably don’t want to set expectations and surely also would like to keep things quiet when it comes to negotiating with rivals and free agents.

All of that is to say: if indeed Cespedes is presently capable of swinging the stick, even if in a limited BP setting, that seems to be good and rather notable news. As I noted in discussing the Mets’ offseason outlook earlier today, the complexion of the outfield could look quite a bit different if Cespedes is part of the picture — especially if he can show enough to be relied upon right out of Spring Training. It’s not hard at all to imagine rather significant impacts on the team’s offseason maneuvering based upon the status of Cespedes, though certainly the organization will need to be wary of presuming too much about his health.

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The needs are clearer than the means for the Mets as they enter a critical second offseason under GM Brodie Van Wagenen.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jacob deGrom: $130.5MM through 2023 (includes $20MM signing bonus, due in two installments on 1/2/20 and 1/4/21)
  • Robinson Cano: $81MM through 2023 (excludes $15MM of remaining obligations owed by Mariners)
  • Yoenis Cespedes: $29.5MM through 2020
  • Jeurys Familia: $22MM through 2021
  • Jed Lowrie: $13MM through 2020 (includes $4MM in remaining signing bonus obligations)
  • Wilson Ramos: $10.75MM (includes $1.5MM buyout on $10MM 2021 club option)
  • David Wright: $9MM through 2020 (excludes estimated $3MM covered by insurance proceeds)
  • Justin Wilson: $5MM through 2020

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[New York Mets depth chart | New York Mets Nationals payroll outlook]

The Mets play in New York, as you may already be aware. But the club’s payroll in recent years has not quite matched its top-of-class market size … a fact you’re also likely familiar with if you’re reading this post. As we sit here today, the Mets are already committed to spending as much as or more than they have have in recent seasons, when they have seemingly operated with fairly clear budgetary restrictions.

So, the Mets are tapped out, right? They can try to move money via trades, but that would mean parting with useful players and/or prospects. Tapping into the talent pipeline would be awfully tough to swallow after having already cleared out some of the farm’s most promising youngsters over the past year in other swaps. It seems like a predicament.

Why, then, are we reading articles throwing around concepts of re-signing Zack Wheeler, landing a similarly spendy replacement, risking a good chunk of change on rehabbing reliever Dellin Betances, trading for Mookie Betts, etc? Does Van Wagenen have freedom to pursue such high-priced players or is he limited to value-for-value swaps that don’t add to the team’s existing payroll commitments?

There’s no answer here. It’s all a mystery. The team wouldn’t want the market to know its precise plans, so that’s sensible enough. But it makes it awfully difficult to assess the offseason possibilities and all but impossible to guess some of the key pieces that’ll be available to new skipper Carlos Beltran.

On the one hand, we’ve not been given reason to believe that the Mets organization is on the verge of a big payroll boost. The team seemed in position to do that sort of thing previously — on the heels of a surprise World Series appearance, say — and didn’t really surge in spending. On the other, Van Wagenen actually responded to questions about the $208MM luxury tax line in a manner that suggested it wasn’t completely absurd to ask about. His answer didn’t exactly indicate that the Mets would be ramping up to that level — “if the luxury tax threshold becomes something we have to consider, then we will talk about it at that time” — but the top baseball ops officer could have taken the opportunity to temper expectations and it seems notable that he didn’t.

While we don’t know for sure what financial means the Mets will have to address their needs, we do have a pretty clear idea of what the roster gaps are. And it’s also not hard to identify a few big-league pieces that could be utilized in lieu of prospects to help swing deals. First baseman Dominic Smith is the most obvious candidate to be moved after showing well with the bat but being eclipsed entirely by a large white bear (also known as Rookie of the Year Peter Alonso). And bat-first utilityman J.D. Davis could also be dangled in some scenarios. More on him below. We shouldn’t overstate the value of these players. Smith only had a brief showing last year due to injury; Davis rode a .355 BABIP. Both are limited on the basepaths and in the field. But they’re useful pre-arb performers with clear surplus value who’d hold clear appeal to a good number of rival organizations.

It’s also rather easy to see where the Mets could stand to improve. Let’s start in center field. With the end of the Juan Lagares era, and the failure of the other players brought in last season to supplement/challenge him, there’s a void up the middle. The preference is not to utilize Michael Conforto and/or Brandon Nimmo there, at least in a full-time capacity, so the optimal outcome is to secure the services of a full-time center fielder with a fall-back of getting a right-handed-hitting part-timer to platoon with those existing lefty bats.

Those two paths also play into the question whether Davis ought to be dealt or retained. If the Mets end up with a CF timeshare, then there should be more plate appearances left for Davis to pick up in the corners. But if the Mets find a regular to play in center, then perhaps Davis won’t have as many opportunities as might be preferred in the corner outfield. It’s easier to deal him in that case, perhaps even as part of the swap for the desired center fielder. The Mets could backfill with a low-cost, righty-hitting veteran to serve as a fourth outfielder … or try to dig up the next Davis in another trade. It’s worth pausing to note that Yoenis Cespedes remains a hypothetical candidate to return, though it remains utterly unclear whether and when that might happen. If the Mets have secret cause for optimism on Cespedes, perhaps that also tips in favor of a Davis swap.

So, the options in center … like many teams, the Mets make an ideal fit for Starling Marte of the Pirates. He isn’t cheap, but isn’t so expensive ($11.5MM in 2020 with an option for 2021) that the Mets can’t figure it out. The Bucs have previously chased after MLB-ready pieces rather than prospects, which suits the New York situation. We don’t know if the Pirates will deal Josh Bell, but if they do, Smith would make an awful lot of sense as a target. Trouble is, there ought to be rather intense competition on Marte. And there’s a new front office regime in Pittsburgh, with a shifting mandate that may favor more drastic action.

Rental piece Jackie Bradley Jr. will cost similarly in salary (a projected $11MM) and quite a bit less in return. It’s easy to imagine Ender Inciarte as a fit if the Braves go in a different direction … and decide to deal in their division. Perhaps Manuel Margot would be a nice compromise if something more can’t be done and the Padres decide to move on. He’s priced fairly ($2.1MM projected) as a platoon candidate with some hopeful upside remaining. There isn’t a regular option in free agency, unless you believe in incoming Japanese star Shogo Akiyama. He’s a left-handed hitter who doesn’t seem to have captured the Mets’ interest. Brett Gardner is likewise a lefty bat. The Mets could turn to Cameron Maybin or another righty-swinging part-timer on the open market.

That’s really the bulk of the work on the position player side. Most of the 4-through-6 infield time ought to be accounted for between Jeff McNeil, Amed Rosario, Robinson Cano, and Jed Lowrie — at least, supposing Lowrie can come back from the mystery issues that derailed his first season in New York. Luis Guillorme represents a utility option. Davis can play third base if he remains on hand, though metrics (DRS, especially) have panned his work there. It’s worth noting that top prospect Andres Gimenez is on the rise. He’s just 21 years of age but could crack the majors if he makes strides at Triple-A and there’s a need. You can certainly imagine a bit of supplementation for this group, perhaps in the form of minor-league signings, but the Mets can be rather confident in what they have.

It’s debatable whether that same confidence ought to extend behind the dish, where veteran Wilson Ramos remains a capable hitter and questionable defender. The opposite is true of reserve Tomas Nido. Van Wagenen has indicated he’s not inclined to pursue a major shakeup at the catching position — “we expect to go into the season with Wilson Ramos as our guy” — but will be “in the market looking for backup options.” The Mets could revisit talks with Yasmany Grandal after just missing him last year, but that’d be quite a surprise given those comments and the other, more pressing needs. Expect the Mets to look at the many lower-cost veterans available this year to shore things up behind the plate.

If it was as simple as adding a center fielder and a few complimentary pieces, the budgetary constraints wouldn’t be as worrisome. But the Mets also need arms. The starting staff has four pieces in place but needs several more, particularly given the health scares that some members of the group have had in recent seasons. It’s quite unlikely that the Mets will lure Wheeler back or replace him with an equivalently valuable player — again, unless there’s a much bigger budget to work with than we know. Van Wagenen had names to cite when asked recently about rotation depth. And to be sure, hurlers such as Chris Flexen, Walker Lockett, Corey Oswalt, and recent first-rounder David Peterson do represent near-term options. But it’s tough to rely upon those hurlers for significant contributions, particularly with a full rotation spot as yet unaccounted for. There has been some talk of stretching out Seth Lugo (and also Robert Gsellman), but it seems likely the team will hope Lugo can reprise his excellent relief work from 2019.

Van Wagenen knows that, which is why he has cited a need to improve in the rotation. It’s likely the Mets will try to land multiple pitchers capable of gobbling up innings. New Jersey product Rick Porcello would be the sort of durable bounceback candidate who’d make sense, though he doesn’t figure to be particularly cheap. There are options at every price point on the market this year. No doubt the Mets will be among the many teams prowling patiently as a high-volume class of free-agent starters seeks contracts.

The pen is obviously a need as well. Last year’s unit was one of the worst in baseball. There’s not much choice but to hope that Edwin Diaz figures things out. He could push Lugo back into setup duty with a big spring. Those two hurlers and lefty Justin Wilson will likely make up the key late-inning trio. Jeurys Familia is also going to be given every chance to find his form, though he’s likely destined for a lower-leverage spot to begin the year. Robert Gsellman is another hurler who is looking for redemption. Among the depth options, Paul Sewald stands out. He doesn’t get many swings and misses but got solid results in a brutal Triple-A environment and turned in a 22:3 K/BB ratio in his 19 2/3 MLB innings.

There’s certainly room to improve here. You could argue for two significant additions. But the budget crunch will make it tough to take risks in this area. It’s understandable that some fans would like to see New York native Dellin Betances make a dramatic cross-borough move. But if dollars are tight, that’s a big risk to take. A return for Jersey boy Brad Brach, who was solid late in 2019, would seem more realistic. Fortunately for the Mets, there’s an abundance of solid relief arms that should be available for fairly modest commitments.

In MLBTR’s ranking of the top fifty free agents, we guessed the team would come away with a fifth starter (Ivan Nova) and useful veteran reliever (Craig Stammen). New Yorkers were not especially excited by this — though, to be fair, they were much more upset at our equally ho-hum predictions for the Yankees. There’s no question the Mets can and quite arguably should do more. It’s a tough division, but they’re trying to compete and the window is certainly open. And, yeah, it’s New York.

Substituting out Nova and Stammen in favor of Cole Hamels and Will Harris just might make the difference … and would almost certainly cost an extra $12MM or more in 2020 salary alone. Bringing back Wheeler and adding multiple relievers would be even better … and yet more expensive. We just don’t know how the organization will behave this winter. But we’ll soon find out.

Orioles Notes: MASN, Elias, Bundy

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The Orioles have lost another legal ruling in the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network saga that never ends. As conveyed through an AP report, the New York trial court has reaffirmed its major recent decision upholding an arbitration award in favor of the Nationals, who have sought for years to force the O’s-controlled MASN to pay more for their television rights fees. It’s time for the Baltimore club to pony up some long-awaited payments to its southern neighbor, the court ruled, with interest now running on the balance due. This doesn’t end the matter — the O’s can still pursue recalculation of the profit tabulations, appeal these trial court rulings, and/or fight the next market re-set period — but it does mark another step towards final resolution.

More from Baltimore:

  • Orioles GM Mike Elias chatted with Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun about his first year in charge of the organization’s baseball operations. Elias conveyed broad optimism about where things are headed, while taking every opportunity to caution fans not to expect too much too soon. Process is the name of the game here. “I think the most important thing of this year has been the capabilities of the [baseball operations] department,” he says, though he also noted some player-development strides in the minors and even at the MLB level. Elias warned: “We’re still going to be in a process where it’s possible that we take a step back to take two steps forward at the major league level.” Even once some strides are evident, he noted, “these types of rebuilds don’t always progress linearly.”
  • Trades of veteran players are a potential part of the O’s strategy, of course, which Elias acknowledged. So what of righty Dylan Bundy? Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com looks at that possibility. While the accounting of Bundy’s trade candidacy doesn’t reveal an especially enticing profile, it does highlight an important point about the former first-round pick: despite some ups and downs in the performance department, particularly in terms of controlling the long ball, Bundy has thrown a good number of solid-enough innings over the past few seasons. Teams routinely pay good money in free agency hoping for the sort of 2-2.5 WAR season Bundy just turned in. He’s projected to earn a palatable $5.7MM with one more season of control remaining thereafter. Bundy posted a career-high 12.9% swinging-strike rate last year and only just turned 27, so perhaps there’s still hope there’s more in the tank.

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

Right after wrapping up a dream 2019 season, the Nats are already in the midst of an offseason loaded with big questions and abundant possibilities.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Patrick Corbin: $125MM through 2024 ($10MM deferred)
  • Max Scherzer: $70MM through 2021 (all deferred); $30MM in signing bonus payments payable in 2020 and 2021
  • Anibal Sanchez: $11MM through 2020 (includes buyout on 2021 club option)
  • Adam Eaton: $11MM through 2020 (includes buyout on 2021 club option; Nationals exercised 2020 club option)
  • Sean Doolittle: $6.5MM through 2020 (Nationals exercised 2020 club option)
  • Kurt Suzuki: $6MM through 2020

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Washington Nationals depth chart | Washington Nationals payroll outlook]

Things can change quickly, eh? It wasn’t but a few months ago that the baseball world was shoveling dirt on the 2019 Nationals, with huge and unpredictable ramifications for the organization’s future sure to come. But the Dave Martinez-led troops got back on their feet, dusted themselves off, and ultimately made a stirring run through the postseason to claim a redemptive World Series title. And now, after briefly basking in the glow of that victory … the team’s three longest-tenured stars are free agents, along with a slate of other postseason heroes, contributors, and/or Baby Shark visionaries.

The Nats have never faced a crossroads like this, even when Bryce Harper reached the open market last winter. They’ll come to the intersection wearing a satisfied grin, but make no mistake: there are many difficult decisions soon to be made.

Fortunately, the Nationals have loads of payroll flexibility to work with. The club has carried one of the game’s heftiest commitment levels for the past several seasons, paying some luxury tax in 2018 and barely avoiding it in 2019, and could presumably again top $200MM in payroll in 2020. The Nationals enter the offseason with something like $80MM to $90MM of headroom (depending upon arbitration decisions) beneath the $208MM competitive balance tax line. That should give president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo an awful lot of options to consider. (He’ll also likely be negotiating his own new contract; his current deal runs through 2020.)

It all begins with Rendon and Strasburg, a pair of quiet, Scott Boras-repped stars who each turned in ~6 WAR campaigns in 2019. It was far from inevitable that either would reach free agency this year. Mutual interest in a deal prompted a long-running exchange of offers with Rendon, but never resulted in an extension. And the general consensus, until rather recently, was that Strasburg would be best served staying in his own previously inked extension with the Nats. While there’s some reason to think that each player would prefer to stay in DC, all else being equal, the cost to keep these players will be steep. MLBTR predicted that both would secure $30MM+ average annual values over lengthy commitments. The organization would reportedly prefer to wrap up its talks with these two players early in the offseason, allowing both parties to move on if it isn’t to be.

Should the Nats retain both of these familiar faces, they’ll have committed a big chunk of their spending capacity — but hardly all of it. If either or both players depart, the club will have more cash to spread around. But there are a few open-market alternatives that could cost just as much or even more. If Rendon takes off, the Nationals may look to Josh Donaldson as an alternative. The fiery veteran is not far off from Rendon in present on-field ability and won’t require as lengthy a commitment (or, likely, as big an annual salary). And the loss of Strasburg could lead the Nats to join the pursuit of Gerrit Cole, who’s likely to out-earn all other free agents this winter.

As things stand, we just can’t know how these major decisions will turn out. But they represent major offseason plot twists for these and other teams. An extra thirty or sixty million of spending capacity can open quite a few doors. Rather than trying to guess on Rendon, Stras, et al., we’ll run through the many remaining D.C. roster needs and think about players at different price points that could be fits.

Let’s begin on the position-player side. The Nats are crossing their fingers that Trea Turner will bounce back well from his recent surgery; he’s ensconced at shortstop. It’s mostly fixed in the outfield, where phenom Juan Soto and veteran Adam Eaton will flank Victor Robles. Half of the catching situation is accounted for with Kurt Suzuki. And … that’s really all that’s nailed down at the moment. That’s not to say that we would expect the Nats to have seven new position players on the active roster come Opening Day. But every other spot is at least up for grabs and susceptible to change.

The 3-4-5 spots are especially interesting. We’ve seen indications that Ryan Zimmerman could be slated to return at first base, but the club hasn’t moved to do so yet and would certainly be justified in exploring alternatives after he turned in an injury-limited, offensively marginal (.257/.321/.415) campaign. Top prospect Carter Kieboom could be ready for another shot at the majors after scuffling in an early 2019 look. He has a bright outlook with the bat and could be slotted in at second or third base. Jake Noll is in much the same place from a positional standpoint but doesn’t come as highly regarded at the plate. It’s possible he’ll be bumped from the 40-man rather than seen as a significant piece of the puzzle; the same holds for utility infielders Wilmer Difo and Adrian Sanchez.

It seems fair to presume the Nats will be add at least three players to infield mix. At first base, even if Zimmerman is brought back, he’ll be accompanied by a quality lefty bat. Platoon mate candidates include Adams, Mitch Moreland, Eric Thames, and the switch-hitting Justin Smoak. There’s a lot to love about the bat from Edwin Encarnacion, but he’s not likely to spend enough time in the field to fit on a National League team. It’s tough to identify any quality regular first basemen who’d figure to come available via trade unless the Indians make Carlos Santana available or the Pirates dangle Josh Bell. Perhaps Brandon Belt of the Giants could be an option. Brad Miller, who’s probably best kept at first but can fill in all over the field, could be an under-the-radar target.

Even if Kieboom will be relied upon for a major contribution at second base, there’s a need for a regular at the hot corner and a versatile reserve. Fortunately for the Nats, they’re well-positioned to take advantage of the market’s abundance of veteran free agents at second and third base. Mike Moustakas is the next-best option at third behind Rendon and Donaldson; he’s also now capable of seeing some time at second. Outgoing D.C. free agents Howie Kendrick, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Brian Dozier are all available, as are players such as Todd Frazier, Jason Kipnis, Starlin Castro, Jonathan Schoop, Eric Sogard, and Ben Zobrist (who was targeted by the Nats when last he reached free agency). The trade market isn’t loaded with especially appealing options, but could feature some high-priced veterans that might conceivably fit. Dee Gordon, Jurickson Profar, and Matt Carpenter could all make sense for the Nationals in varying ways. The versatile Whit Merrifield would be a perfect fit, though that’s true of other teams and the Royals don’t appear inclined to sell.

Some of those players would also be potential outfield contributors, which would be nice. The Nats could hang on to Michael Taylor and hope he can handle the fourth outfielder role, though his bat has just never been consistent. The left-handed-hitting Andrew Stevenson had a nice 2019 showing at Triple-A and could also be considered, but he wasn’t trusted with much time in the bigs and doesn’t really fit as a compliment to Eaton. So, where might the Nats fit into the free agent market on the outfield grass? Veterans such as Adam Jones, Hunter Pence, and Cameron Maybin could be considered. The Nats may also just bring in some minor-league free agents to compete for jobs and then adjust mid-season if there’s a need.

Behind the plate, there’s an argument for a relatively modest addition to share time with Suzuki. Jason Castro would make for a nice potential fit. Other left-handed-hitting backstop options are available in the form of Alex Avila and Stephen Vogt (along with switch-hitting old friend Matt Wieters, who doesn’t seem likely to filter back). The open market also features Travis d’Arnaud, Francisco Cervelli, Russell Martin, and Martin Maldonado, among quite a few others. The level of player the team will target could depend upon the degree of confidence in 40-man options Raudy Read and Tres Barrera. The former had quite a nice offensive campaign at Triple-A.

There is one more, yet more intriguing possibility: Yasmani Grandal. Interestingly, he’s a more accomplished hitter than any of the first base options on the open market this winter, so the Nats could conceivably utilize him in a ~50-50 timeshare behind the plate while also giving him time at first. Depending upon how things shake out, Grandal could continue to function in a split capacity or slide back into a full-time catching role once Suzuki departs after the season. It’s an intriguing possibility for a team that will have a boat load of free spending capacity and a need for star position-player talent if it loses Rendon.

Things are somewhat more straightforward on the pitching side. The Nats are clearly in the market for Strasburg or a replacement. For a team that once added Max Scherzer to an already-loaded rotation and rode its starting staff to a title this year, all bets are off when it comes to starters. Anyone and everyone is a potential target if Strasburg heads elsewhere. Even if he returns, the fifth rotation spot will be open for supplementation. Joe Ross, Austin Voth, Erick Fedde, Kyle McGowin, and perhaps Shannon Sharp and Wil Crowe (only the former must be protected from the Rule 5 draft) could battle for the job in camp with a minor-league signee or two. Or the Nats could plug in another veteran. It’s frankly impossible to rule out any single starter as a conceivable potential target.

The relief situation might be more interesting if there were high-end closers out there for the bidding. But with Aroldis Chapman and Will Smith both already locked up, the top available arm is the guy who gave up a monster home run to Kendrick in Game 7. Come to think of it, Will Harris is actually not a bad target for the Nats, who desperately need some added certainty after a season full of nail-biting relief appearances. Daniel Hudson could be brought back after his successful stint. He’s part of a pretty broad group of hurlers lined up behind Harris in the pecking order. If the team is inclined to roll the dice again after whiffing on Trevor Rosenthal, it could take a shot on Dellin Betances in hopes of landing on a late-inning ace to pair with Sean Doolittle. Supposing Roenis Elias can get back to form, there isn’t a particular need for a southpaw, so the Nats can focus simply on getting the best arms for the best price.

How many new pen arms do the Nats need? It’d make sense to secure at least two sturdy new options and perhaps add another if the club decides to cut bait on Hunter Strickland. But that really depends how the club feels about its existing arms, since it’ll surely be forced to shave a few players off of the 40-man if it doesn’t rely upon them. Several of the above-noted starters meet that description, as do some of the other uncertain relievers presently taking up roster spots. Austen Williams is coming off of a rough campaign, James Bourque has both an intriguing arm and a walk problem, and both Aaron Barrett and Koda Glover are major health risks.

So what’ll the Nats do to set the stage for an encore? It’s a question without anything close to a clear answer. All of the above possibilities and more are surely under consideration. Soto and Turner are extension candidates, too, it’s worth noting — with added onus, perhaps, if the organization says goodbye to Rendon, Strasburg, and Zimmerman. Even with all the disappointments now atoned for, the Nationals are perhaps entering their most free-ranging and interesting offseason under Rizzo’s helm. And he has already shown quite a penchant for surprise.

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