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MLBTR Poll: Should Mets Entertain Offers For Jacob deGrom?

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In an interesting examination, Joel Sherman of the New York Post makes the case that the Mets ought to take offers on ace Jacob deGrom. He doesn’t exactly advocate a swap — the club ought to move him only “if the return is so overwhelming that they can’t say no,” in Sherman’s estimation — but does suggest it’s a realistic possibility worth pursuing.

That’d be quite an about-face given that deGrom only just inked an extension with the New York organization over the offseason. It really doesn’t kick in until after the present season. Nominally a four-year, $120.5MM pact, the value of the extension was reduced significantly by deferrals.

That is a lot of coin for a pitcher who recently reached his 31st birthday, though deGrom is not just any hurler. He hasn’t been as dominant as he was last year, but that’s due mostly to regression in the home run department and a few shifts in sequencing fortune. Through 110 innings, he carries a 3.27 ERA with 11.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. All the skills remain evident: deGrom has actually boosted his average fastball velocity to over 97 mph and is maintaining a swinging-strike rate in range of 15%.

There are some obvious barriers to a deal, as Sherman notes, beginning with Mets ownership. Even if the Wilpons are willing to authorize a franchise-altering swap, deGrom would have his say given his full no-trade rights.

That doesn’t mean it isn’t fascinating to consider the possibilities. At the moment, this year’s trade market is led by decidedly less-valuable hurlers such as Madison Bumgarner (who hasn’t lived up to his storied past of late), Marcus Stroman (often excellent but not consistently dominant), and deGrom’s teammate Zack Wheeler (ditto). deGrom is unquestionably one of the game’s very best pitchers; controlling him for four years at big but not eye-watering money would hold plenty of appeal.

There’s certainly some sense in the notion that the Mets ought to be willing to hit the re-set button. The offseason moves of new GM Brodie Van Wagenen have not hit the mark thus far; neither did those of his predecessor Sandy Alderson in the winter prior. Keeping deGrom while dealing only rental pieces would presumably mean a third-straight offseason re-tooling effort on the heels of a disappointing season.

On the other hand, the Mets would find themselves in a funny spot without deGrom. They still owe big money to players such as Yoenis Cespedes, Robinson Cano, Jed Lowrie, Wilson Ramos, and Jeurys Familia. They’ll be paying another arb raise to Noah Syndergaard, unless he’s also made available. (That would arguably make quite a bit of sense, whether or not deGrom is shopped; perhaps the underperforming Thor deserves his own poll.)

The situation obviously does not admit of straightforward solutions. How do you think the Mets should handle it? (Poll link for app users.)

Rob Manfred On Minor-League Pay Negotiations

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Yesterday, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred discussed the long-simmering issue of pay to minor-league players, as Evan Drellich of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Manfred’s office recently launched negotiations with the minor-league governing body known as the National Association of Professional Baseball Leagues.

MLB has fought tooth and nail to secure legal advantages against minor-league ballplayers, who remain without a union. While it battles to preserve its freedom of action, the league is also not unaware of the many problems posed by the current system, in which most minor-league players are dimly compensated for their labor. There’s always a risk of a reversal of legislative or court victories. And a concerted PR strategy from the players’ side could yet turn the tide.

While the ongoing talks with the NAPBL are voluntary, Manfred recognizes the practical need to address the matter. “The game’s about young players right now,” says the commissioner. Proper development of key player-assets requires a “positive environment,” which in turn means “you’ve got to have good facilities” and “you’ve got to pay correctly, and make sure you got the right people teaching.”

The imperative to “pay correctly” — an exceedingly interesting turn of phrase for the commish to introduce — is of chief interest to minor-league players. But there’s quite a bit more going on here. As Drellich well puts it, “Lurking in the background, and as a point of leverage, is the possibility that MLB seeks to cull some teams or otherwise reshape some aspects of the minors.” Hence the engagement with the NAPBL, which does not represent players but does have power over all other pertinent business matters that its big brother does not govern directly.

Manfred left little doubt that MLB owners aren’t just planning to open their pocketbooks. He cited a need “to look at the efficiency of the system” — for its own sake, perhaps, but also to “create[] some economic flexibility” that can be put to use in addressing the ballplayer salary issue. Beyond that, it seems mostly a question of whose profit margin will take the hit. As Manfred says, “Whether we pay or they pay, that’s a negotiation, right?”

Having won the early lobbying battle, organized baseball has earned itself time and space to structure a solution — albeit one that can still be subject to challenge. It’s still not clear what the league thinks it means to “pay correctly,” but the present approach seems unlikely to define that in the first instance by reference to concepts of fairness. Rather, what we are seeing now is an ownership effort (at both the major and minor-league levels) to arrive at an economically efficient solution that maximizes organizations’ investments in young players, staves off labor disruption, and assures the paying and voting public that all is well. Of course, the players will still have opportunities to influence the outcome, whether or not through the MLBPA or formal bargaining. It seems promising that MLB recognizes the need for change, even if the process isn’t ideal for labor. Whether the resulting system will be a fair one for pre-MLB ballplayers remains to be seen.

D-Backs CEO Derrick Hall On Deadline Plans

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Diamondbacks CEO Derrick Hall discussed his organization’s upcoming trade-deadline plans — or, really, the lack thereof — in an interesting recent chat with Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (subscription link). The whole thing is essential reading for the Arizona faithful, but we’ll examine a few key bits relating to the trade deadline.

Hall made clear, first and foremost, that the organization is entering the deadline period without a scripted approach. At the moment, it’s not clear what stance the Snakes will take. “[A] lot could be cleared up over the next few weeks,” he says, as the standings shift in the run-up to July 31st.

Just when and how that’ll be resolved remains to be seen. Intriguingly, Hall even seems to hint that he might rather see the current roster declare itself in one direction or the other more decisively. Per Hall: “We haven’t played great of late, and other teams have struggled as well, which has kept us in it, which is not necessarily a good thing for us.”

It’s not surprising to hear that the Arizona outfit will operate in a flexible manner. As Hall explains, that has been the modus operandi of GM Mike Hazen and his front office. “[O]ur guys, what they like to do is a little bit of both,” Hall said when asked what a sell-oriented deadline might look like, referring to the org’s twin pursuits of acquiring “pieces that can make an impact now” and “rebuilding that farm system.”

If there’s a broader takeaway from the chat, it probably lies in this line from Hall: “I don’t think Mike is in favor of a complete rebuild, and we’re in support of whatever direction he decides.” The organization clearly has placed quite a lot of trust in Hazen’s judgment. And it is obviously interested in maintaining consistent competitiveness while perhaps also achieving inflection points of real contention.

The D-Backs’ long-term vision carries echoes of successful, low-revenue clubs. After referring to the Paul Goldschmidt swap as “a deal that we really had to make,” Hall explained:

“That’s what [the front office is] always going to look to do, bring in young talent that can help the roster now. Even though you may be making moves that are moving some of your assets that we don’t have control over for a long time, you can still bring in individuals you will have that control over but who can impact the roster now.”

It’ll certainly be interesting to see how things play out this summer and beyond. Players such as Robbie Ray and David Peralta could deliver nice returns with one year of control remaining; veteran ace Zack Greinke might finally be dealt away to clear up the team’s books. It seems fair to assume that Hazen will have an open mind on those and other assets, but it’s tough to say at present which particular players will end up being discussed in earnest over the next three weeks.

Latest On Trevor Bauer

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10:38pm: There’s interest “around the block” in Bauer, one official told Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Astros “are said to be among the most interested,” Sherman writes. Houston has questions in its rotation now beyond Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley, and Verlander is the lone member of the trio who’s under contract past this season. Bauer would somewhat help cover for the potential exits of Cole and Miley in 2020.

6:25pm: The Indians face an interesting potential dilemma — and opportunity — with regard to starter Trevor Bauer. Even as they continue to ramp up the pressure on the AL Central-leading Twins and remain in Wild Card position, the Cleveland organization may consider swapping out the excellent but costly right-hander.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic characterizes the Cleveland organization as “aggressive listeners” when it comes to Bauer (audio link via Twitter; further discussion via subscription link). That’s an understandable position for the organization to take. After all, any deal would have to both respect the team’s immediate prospects for contention and represent a significant boost to the future outlook.

There’s ample long-term uncertainty between the Indians and Bauer. He’s earning $13MM this year and promises to take down another significant raise on top of that (particularly after twice defeating the club in an arbitration hearing). It will likely be difficult for the team to afford him in 2020. Beyond that, Bauer has made clear for some time now that he intends to head onto the open market and sign a string of one-year contracts. Even if the Indians want to retain him, they’ll need to top quite a few other potential bidders.

That said, there isn’t exactly immediate pressure to do a deal. If the Indians are determined not to hang onto Bauer next season, they can still certainly move him over the offseason. Having already skimped on salary entering this season and run into a surprisingly stiff challenge from Minnesota, the Indians will surely hesitate to draw away too much present ability from the MLB roster. And the rotation is in greater need than might have been anticipated due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco. While each is expected to return, it remains to be seen whether either can make it back to top form this season.

If there’s room for a deal, it surely involves a scenario in which the Indians are able to acquire high-quality, MLB-ready position-player talent. There are quite a few marginal offensive performers on the roster at present, leaving ample room to improve. It’s not altogether impossible to imagine a trade coming together, particularly if the Indians can find a partner with a bit of a surplus to work with in the right areas. But this was all largely true over the offseason, when the Cleveland front office explored but did not consummate deals involving its slate of starters.

The obvious connection to be made here is between the Indians and Yankees. The New York outfit needs starters and just so happens to possess an excess young slugger that was once a top performer on the Cleveland farm. But Rosenthal reiterates (as he has suggested previously) that the Yanks don’t want to move Clint Frazier for a quality starter who comes with another season of control. The staying power of that stance seems a bit dubious — if the New York organization was really so convinced of the 24-year-old’s abilities with the bat, it probably wouldn’t have been so eager to displace him from the 2019 roster — but it remains the prevailing characterization of the situation.

That’s not to say the Yankees aren’t interested in Bauer, a 28-year-old hurler who hasn’t been quite as excellent as he was last year but nevertheless paces the American League with 132 frames and carries a strong 3.61 ERA. To the contrary, Rosenthal says that NYY scouting guru Tim Naehring watched Bauer’s most recent outing. As Andy Martino of SNY.tv notes, that’s not necessarily an overly momentous occurrence, though there’s little doubt the Yankees were glad to have a close look at Bauer.

If the Indians do indeed crank up the volume on their headphones and bust out the air guitar for a truly aggressive listening session, they’ll no doubt want to check out some other artists beyond the Bronx Bombers. Quite a few other contenders would no doubt prefer to pay a bit more for Bauer than to give up a haul for a true rental pitcher. In addition to the extra season of control, which could fill a rotation need for next season or be cashed back in via trade, a new team might reasonably anticipate recouping draft compensation in the future by extending a qualifying offer.

Latest On Market For Madison Bumgarner

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We’ll continue our evening trip around the summer starting pitching market in San Francisco, where top rental rotation piece Madison Bumgarner resides. Earlier today, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) updated the market for the burly southpaw, cataloging a variety of suitors.

The Astros, Braves, and Brewers are newly added entrants to the mix, joining the already reported Twins and Yankees. We’ve certainly seen many or all of these teams cited as possibilities — among others, as MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored a month back — but this is the clearest indication yet of the kind of competition that could be developing.

All that said, there are limits to Bumgarner’s appeal, as Rosenthal explores. We’ve hashed out many of the pluses and minuses of late; suffice to say that there are good reasons to think the long-time star still has some gas in the tank, but no real reason to believe he’s the stud he once was.

Beyond that, there are also some clear alternatives floating around who’ll also draw attention from contenders. On the rental side, the Mets’ Zack Wheeler (latest rumors) has emerged as a younger, lower-salaried, and arguably higher-upside possibility. Teams that prefer future control could look to Marcus Stroman (latest rumors), Matt Boyd (latest rumors), and perhaps even Trevor Bauer (latest rumors).

Bumgarner’s no-trade rights could certainly play into the equation here, as he’ll have the ability to block deals to most of the interested teams. As Rosenthal originally reported a few months back, the savvy veteran put his eight-team list to full use by naming a host of clear contenders (Braves, Red Sox, Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Yankees, Phillies, Cardinals).

As Rosenthal rightly notes today, there’s also not much reason to think that MadBum would decline to facilitate a move. Beyond the obvious appeal of another shot at postseason glory after a few seasons away, the 29-year-old stands to shed the qualifying offer entering free agency.

The qualifying offer issue may not seem like a major factor for a player of Bumgarner’s stature, but the recent experience of Dallas Keuchel shows it’s still of real importance. Though he placed fourth on the latest free-agent power ranking from MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, just edging Wheeler, Bumgarner still faces plenty of variability in his ultimate earning power.

Though Bumgarner left his last start with an elbow contusion, it seems he escaped a worrying injury. There’ll be plenty of time still in the run-up to the deadline for Bumgarner to show off his form to interested clubs, including those listed above.

Scott Boras On Possibility Of Anthony Rendon Extension

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While quiet Nationals star Anthony Rendon elected not to participate in this year’s All-Star festivities — somehow the first time he has been selected — his less-than-taciturn agent was on hand and willing to discuss Rendon’s contract situation. As Todd Dybas of NBC Sports reports, Scott Boras certainly did not sound like a man who was close to wrapping up a contract for his client.

Engagement between the Nats and Rendon/Boras has seemingly been sporadic. There was an apparent uptick in activity recently, with Boras present in D.C. and reports indicating that the sides were negotiating in earnest. But the super-agent doused that flame, explaining: “I go to a lot of ballparks. It doesn’t mean we’re investing into anything that’s relevant to contract terms.”

Boras was content to press the obvious leverage he has gained over recent months. The mammoth Nolan Arenado extension removed a major market competitor and set a big price for top third-base talent before the season, with the surprisingly light Xander Bogaerts contract providing only a meager counterweight in terms of precedent. Rendon has since ramped up his already sterling resume to the point that Boras now has trouble embellishing. (Not that he wasn’t willing to dabble, labeling Rendon a “superstar” and at least hinting at a partial comparison to the peerless Mike Trout.)

A few choice quotes hint at Boras’s stance vis-a-vis a Nationals organization he has dealt with frequently:

  • “I think [Rendon’s] focused on the season.”
  • “I don’t know what their diagnostics are, but we’ll see as we approach the offseason.”
  • “It’s really in their corner as to how we go from there.”
  • “Ted and the Lerner family, and the organization, we’ve always worked out things — usually.” (an under-the-radar, instant Boras classic)

The takeaway is clear, if already obvious to the familiar Nats: Rendon’s camp is in the driver’s seat and in no rush to make a deal. Convincing him to forego a run at a market that’ll be mostly devoid of other top talent will take a major payday — one that the team may ultimately be willing to post. If there’s an ace in the hole for D.C., beyond its familiarity to Rendon, it may simply be that it’s the only place the reserved 29-year-old can line up his future without an attention-grabbing foray into free agency.

Red Sox Among Teams With Interest In Zack Wheeler

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The Red Sox and Mets are engaged in preliminary talks regarding New York righty Zack Wheeler, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Boston is said to be targeting a rotation addition after deciding to utilize Nathan Eovaldi in the bullpen.

Importantly, there’s no indication that a deal is close. And the Sox are far from alone in pursuit of Wheeler. The Braves, Brewers, and Yankees were all connected to him recently. Andy Martino of SNY.tv suggests that the Cubs are another possibility, though it’s unclear whether the clubs are in contact.

It’s unsurprising to hear tell of a robust slate of possible suitors for a pitcher who figures to be among the top rental arms available. That’s especially true given that Wheeler is earning just under $6MM this season, making him amply affordable for just about any team.

The salary factor is of particular note with regard to the Boston organization. While the club is one of the game’s most consistent spenders and is coming off of the bonanza of a World Series win, it is also walking a financial tightrope this year and doesn’t plan to extend its payroll much further.

It’s also notable to see the Fenway denizens connected at this stage to a top rental piece. The club isn’t exactly in prime position after a ho-hum start to the season. There’s a nine-game gap in the division, which is paced by a Yankees club that seems poised to make more impactful additions, and serious competition even for a Wild Card birth.

What’s most interesting of all here, perhaps, is the potential for a quick and active bidding situation. The Red Sox and Yankees are obviously aware of the implications of one or the other landing a particular player. With the Sox said to be looking to strike a relatively quick deal to bring in rotation help, they could conceivably force the market to move. If the Yanks see Wheeler as their preferred target, they might need to act decisively, setting up an intriguing dynamic involving the club’s chief on-field rival in Boston and its sole market competitor across the way in Queens.

Martino says the Mets “have shifted into a more aggressive sell mode,” which makes sense given their all-but-hopeless spot in the standings (ten games under .500, 13.5 out of the division lead, second-to-worst record in the National League). It may well behoove the team to get the jump on marketing its rental pieces, Wheeler in particular, while other teams try to wait until the last moment. But committing even to a limited sell-off — particularly this early, and especially if it involves the Yankees — would certainly represent a bitter pill for ownership and rookie GM Brodie Van Wagenen.

Red Sox Face Decision On Tyler Thornburg

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The Red Sox announced today that they have recalled the rehabilitation assignment of righty Tyler Thornburg. While the reliever remains on the injured list for the time being, the move begins a two-day period within which the club will have to decide whether to activate him or instead remove him from the MLB roster, as Alex Speier of the Boston Globe notes on Twitter.

Thornburg has been working back from a hip impingement since late May — the latest in a line of health issues that have significantly limited him since he came to Boston in the 2016-17 offseason. He has averaged 94.1 mph on his average fastball this year in the majors, but little else has gone according to plan.

Despite the return to a velocity level that sits just over his career average, Thornburg managed only an 8.6% swinging-strike rate over his 18 2/3 innings. He did record 22 strikeouts, but also handed over ten walks and gave up four long balls. If anything, it might be surprising the ball didn’t leave the yard more often. Opposing hitters tagged Thornburg to the tune of a 92.4 mph average exit velocity, 56.6% hard-contact rate, and 20.4 degree average launch angle.

In all, Thornburg coughed up 7.71 earned per nine in the majors. And his rehab showing at Triple-A hasn’t been any more promising. In 10 2/3 frames there, he was ambushed for a whopping 15 earned runs and five long balls.

It’s possible that the Sox will give Thornburg one more shot to make good at the MLB level. Odds are they’ll decide it’s time to cut bait, even with a relief unit that’s in need of supplementation. Other organizations will surely like to see if they can help the veteran get back to what once made him a quality reliever, though it’s hard to imagine any taking on the remainder of his $1.75MM salary.

Tendering Thornburg in his final season of arb eligibility has proven a regrettable decision for the Red Sox, though it’s understandable the organization sought to recoup some value. Despite turning in questionable results when he was able to pitch in 2018, Thornburg evidently showed enough for the club to think he could rediscover his form. Indeed, over the winter, the club even cited him as a possible member of the late-inning mix.

Nationals Nearing Deal With Brad Boxberger

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The Nationals are nearing a deal with veteran reliever Brad Boxberger, according to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post (via Twitter). It’s said to be a minor-league arrangement.

Boxberger was released recently by the Royals, who’ll remain obligated for the remainder of his $2.2MM salary. Should the righty make it up to the majors in D.C., his new organization would pay him at the league-minimum rate, providing a bit of relief to the Kansas City club.

If it feels as if the relief-needy Nats are scooping up all the veteran relievers that have been cut loose by other teams … well, that’s not far from the truth. Fernando Rodney, Jonny Venters, and Javy Guerra all opened the season with other clubs before landing with the Nationals on minors deals and then filtering up to the big leagues. (The club also nabbed outfielder Gerardo Parra under similar circumstances.) Dan Jennings and George Kontos also opened the year elsewhere before joining the D.C. org, though both are at Triple-A at present.

This approach surely wasn’t the plan going in, but it proved necessary as the Nationals relief unit turned in calamitous results over the first few months of the season. It still doesn’t look like an inspiring assemblage of pitchers, but the D.C. pen has been a passable group more recently, allowing (though not exactly driving) a fantastic run in the standings that now has the organization set up for more substantial additions over the next three weeks.

Even as the Nats’ front office begins pursuing trade targets in earnest, they’ll seemingly continue building out the depth options. Boxberger certainly fits the same general mold as the numerous other pitchers who’ve been brought on board. A long-established MLB hurler, the 31-year-old merited a guaranteed contract after a tepid but still-useful 2018 season but then failed to hit his stride in the early going this year.

It’ll be interesting to see whether the new organization can get Boxberger back on track. Trouble is, he’s working with significantly less velocity than ever before; he’s down to 90.5 mph with his average heater this year after sitting just under 93 for his career. Unsurprisingly, perhaps, Boxberger is going to offspeed offerings more than ever before, serving up his change on about one in three pitches and his slider on one of every five deliveries.

The results just haven’t been there, and neither have the peripherals. Boxberger is sitting on a 5.40 ERA over 26 2/3 innings, with 9.1 K/9 and 5.7 BB/9. On the positive side, his 11.3% swinging-strike rate isn’t far from his career average. And Statcast readings indicate that Boxberger has been a bit unfortunate. Opposing hitters have managed only 85.3 mph in average exit velocity. Boxberger is carrying a .311 xwOBA-against that lags the .329 wOBA that opposing hitters have produced.

AL Injury Notes: Luzardo, Stroman, Twins, Mize

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There’s now a rough timeline for Athletics southpaw Jesus Luzardo, who was agonizingly close to a full return from a shoulder injury — and his first taste of the majors — when he suffered a lat strain days ago. Fortunately, the hyped 21-year-old could be ready to begin a new rehab assignment within four or five weeks. That’s about as quick a potential bounce back as might have been hoped for a player who’ll assuredly be handled with extra care. It seems there’s still a reasonable shot of Luzardo being a late-season MLB option, though the A’s will not be able to assume that they’ll get a shot in the arm from the top prospect.

Here’s more from the American League:

  • Blue Jays right-hander Marcus Stroman will not take the ball again before the All-Star break, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet tweets. Stroman hasn’t pitched since he exited a June 29 start with a left pectoral cramp, though the injury may not be severe enough to prevent him from participating in the All-Star Game, according to Nicholson-Smith. Regardless, the team’s hope is he’ll start its first game after the break. The fact that Stroman’s one of the game’s most obvious trade candidates makes his health all the more crucial with the July 31 deadline coming up.
  • There was some good news and bad news today on the injury front for the Twins, as Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). Outfielder Eddie Rosario, on the IL with a sprained ankle since June 28, is making progress and should return shortly after the All-Star break, manager Rocco Baldelli suggested. Meanwhile, the left oblique strain that forced fan favorite and utilityman Willians Astudillo to the IL on June 27 is “significant,” per Baldelli. It could keep Astudillo out “for the foreseeable future,” Park writes.
  • Tigers prospect Casey Mize has resumed throwing after a recent injury scare, GM Al Avila told reporters including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (via Twitter). That’s not of immediate consequence for the Detroit club, but is certainly excellent news for the team’s long-term outlook. Mize, the 2018 No. 1 overall pick and one of the majors’ elite farmhands, has been on the minor league IL with right shoulder inflammation for three weeks. The 22-year-old laid waste to his competition before then, combining for a 0.92 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 78 innings between High-A and Double-A ball.

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