Reds Sign Vance Worley
The Reds have signed righty Vance Worley to a minors deal that includes an invitation to the MLB side of Spring Training, per a club announcement. He’ll receive an opt-out opportunity at the end of camp and can earn a $1.5MM salary in the majors, per Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer (Twitter links).
Worley, 30, contributed 71 2/3 innings over a dozen starts and another dozen relief appearances last year for the Marlins. He ended the season with an unsightly 6.91 ERA, though his peripherals suggest there was some poor fortune baked into the results.
On the year, Worley managed 6.3 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, and a 48.6% groundball rate — all numbers that land near his career averages. But he stranded just 64.5% of runners to reach against him and was tagged for a .378 batting average on balls in play. While that latter mark was deserved to an extent, it appears somewhat out of line given that Worley surrendered a .405 wOBA but carried a .364 xwOBA.
Of course, Worley enjoyed much better fortune in a 86 2/3-inning stint with the Orioles in 2016, when he managed a 3.53 ERA. As ever, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. All things considered, Worley has worked at or slightly above replacement level for the past several seasons.
Cincinnati is obviously looking primarily for solid veteran depth, while Worley is no doubt intrigued by the opportunity on a staff that has many options but few sure things. It’s conceivable that he could have a shot at breaking camp with the Reds either as a starter or a reliever.
Extension Records: Mid-Arbitration
With extension season upon us, we are looking at some of the current record-holding contracts. Last week, we broke down the most notable extensions for pre-arbitration players. Now, we’ll turn to those players who reached agreements at a point at which they were eligible for arbitration but before they were within their final season before free agency.
(So, we’ll include Super Two-eligible players in this post. But we won’t yet be looking at those 5+ service-class players who signed as the open market beckoned.)
Typically, a fair number of significant players sign long-term pacts in the period between the start of a new year and the start of a new season. This time last year, we were within a week or so of learning of mid-arb deals for players including Yangervis Solarte, Wil Myers, and Kole Calhoun. Many of this season’s arbitration-eligible players also feature as plausible candidates.
Of course, the need to hammer out an arbitration salary for the coming campaign often helps spur talks. This time around, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports, it seems that all of MLB’s teams will be utilizing a “file-and-trial” approach to arbitration, which could further incentivize multi-year deals — though not necessarily ones that buy out would-be free agent seasons.
On to the most notable deals from the Super Two, 3+, and 4+ service groups …
Biggest Contract, Super Two
Buster Posey, Giants: 8 years, $159MM (plus one option)
This particular contract stands out from the crowd quite a bit. It dwarfs the other large Super Two deal, such as those agreed to by Starlin Castro ($60MM), Jay Bruce ($51MM), and (most recently) Kevin Kiermaier ($53.5MM). Indeed, it tops anything agreed to by players in their 3+ service class as well (see below). And the Posey deal also represents the second-largest deal of any kind ever agreed to by a catcher. There’s a reason for all that, of course: Posey was and is a once-in-a-generation talent at his position. His suitably monstrous deal, then, functions as a notable market marker for any truly elite players engaging in contract talks early in their arbitration eligibility.
Biggest Contract, Super Two Pitcher
Gio Gonzalez, Nationals: 5 years, $42MM (plus two options)
As we saw with the pre-arb extensions, there’s a big gap between what top position players have been able to command and what’s available for pitchers. Teams just have not been willing to promise that much money through arbitration eligibility, even if it means picking up affordable future control. The other top contract in this service class is Jaime Garcia, at a $27.5MM guarantee. Still, as the Nats’ experience with Gonzalez shows, there’s quite some upside to be found even when a team does plunk down a relatively significant promise; he has delivered excellent value over the deal and has had both his options exercised.
Biggest Contract, 3+ Service Class
Freddie Freeman, Braves: 8 years, $135MM
While Freeman couldn’t top Posey, this was still a notable contract. The first baseman was certainly an accomplished hitter, but wasn’t a tremendous power source and was considered limited to first base. Of course, the Atlanta organization was right to trust in Freeman, as he has turned in a 157 OPS+ in each of the past two seasons while showing 30+ home run pop (as well as the ability to play third in a pinch, though we’ve likely seen the end of that experiment). This deal topped the second extension of Ryan Braun ($105MM) as well as large contracts agreed upon with 3+ service class players Kyle Seager ($100MM), Albert Pujols ($100MM back in 2004) Wil Myers ($83MM), and Justin Morneau ($80MM).
Biggest Contract, 3+ Service Class Pitcher
Carlos Martinez, Cardinals: 5 years, $51MM (plus two options)
It seems fair to say that Martinez had established a similar level of productivity as had Freeman to the same points in their career. But his own record-setting deal came in way shy despite the fact that he was only entering his age-25 season. Still, Martinez handily out-earned prior pitchers from this service grouping, such as Ervin Santana (link), Scott Kazmir (link), and Johnny Cueto (link).
Biggest Contract, 4+ Service Class
Giancarlo Stanton, Marlins: 13 years, $325MM (plus opt-out)
The Stanton deal remains the biggest and longest contract yet agreed to by a MLB player, so it more or less sets all the records. The 4+ stage is a popular time to lock up established superstars, but it typically takes a hefty sum to get it done. Ten-year commitments have gone to Joey Votto ($225MM) and Troy Tulowitzki ($157.75MM). Other nine-figure guarantees include the first Miguel Cabrera extension ($152.3MM), the ill-fated Ryan Howard pact ($125MM), and the roller-coaster Elvis Andrus deal ($120MM). Evan Longoria‘s $100MM second extension was just traded, with the Rays taking a bit of a haircut but also receiving some talent in return.
Biggest Contract, 4+ Service Class Pitcher
Justin Verlander, Tigers: 5 years, $80MM
Verlander and Felix Hernandez ($78MM) set the bar for mid-arbitration pitchers. The highly accomplished duo performed well enough in the early going under these contracts that each ultimately inked similar, yet more significant extensions. Both have had their stumbles since their newer contracts kicked in, though the former has mostly been in excellent form of late and the latter is at least still fairly youthful (he’ll turn 32 at the beginning of the 2018 season, whereas Verlander is soon to hit his 35th birthday). The only other player in shouting distance is Matt Harrison, whose $55MM deal did not pan out due to a serious back injury. A variety of other 4+ pitchers have inked deals within $5MM or so of a $40MM guarantee, including Dan Haren (link), Josh Johnson (link), Zack Greinke (link), and Chad Billingsley (link). As the names listed here would indicate, it has been quite a while since we’ve seen a significant contract for a 4+ hurler.
Biggest Contract, Mid-Arb Reliever
Craig Kimbrel, Braves: 4 years, $42MM (plus one option)
Kimbrel has long been a super-elite reliever. Indeed, his raw numbers were so impressive that they busted MLBTR’s arbitration model. With some real questions as to just how much Kimbrel might earn in arbitration, the sides agreed to an interesting contract that was utterly without precedent. To that point the biggest reliever extensions of any kind were in the $20MM range (Huston Street (link) and Carlos Marmol (link)). Nothing has approached Kimbrel’s extension since, though ensuing growth in the free agent market for top-end relievers has certainly changed the situation. Indeed, this contract has been traded twice for good value, showing that the Braves did well for taking a risk that no other organization really had before. (Things worked out well for Kimbrel, too: he weathered some relatively lesser seasons without worrying about security and is now poised to hit free agency at 30 years of age, where he might still set new records.)
Tim Beckham Changes Agents
Orioles shortstop Tim Beckham has hired new representation, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). His new agency will be the Wasserman Media Group.
Beckham, who is now closing in on his 28th birthday, entered the professional ranks as the top overall selection in the 2008 draft. Though he has not quite lived up to that billing to this point, Beckham is fresh off of his most promising campaign at the MLB level.
While his tenure with the Rays came to an end at the 2017 trade deadline, Beckham produced at a roughly league-average rate at the plate during his time with Tampa Bay. And he exploded upon arriving in Baltimore, carrying a robust .306/.348/.523 batting line over 230 plate appearances despite a late-season swoon.
It’s tough to know just what to expect from Beckham, who has yet to prove he’s an everyday player but will surely be relied upon heavily by the O’s. There’s still some uncertainty as to how the club will line up on the left side of the infield, too, and Beckham has been approached about some potential changes.
Regardless of what’s to come, the first order of business will be sorting out a 2018 salary. MLBTR projects an arbitration salary of $3.1MM for Beckham, who earned $885K last year as a Super Two player and can be controlled for two additional seasons via arbitration.
As always, you can find up-to-date player representation information in MLBTR’s Agency Database.
Matt Garza To Undergo Shoulder Surgery
Free agent righty Matt Garza is set to undergo surgery for a torn right shoulder labrum, according to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. It seems the injury was sustained in a mid-season collision that knocked Garza out of commission for a time but did not end his season.
Now 34 years of age, Garza just wrapped up a four-year, $50MM deal with Milwaukee. (The contract had included an option provision, but it was voided when he reached an appearances threshold.) His future as a pitcher appears uncertain now that he’s facing down a significant procedure.
As McCalvy notes, Garza was throwing rather well when he crashed into Brewers first baseman Jesus Aguilar on June 3rd. Though he landed on the DL, Garza returned and pitched through the injury — the extent of which was evidently not fully appreciated or fully expressed at that time. He continued to provide solid frames for the Brewers for a while and never really exhibited a velocity loss. Nevertheless, Garza lost his edge in an ugly run of outings during August.
The tough finish to the 2017 season left Garza with 114 2/3 innings of 4.94 ERA ball. Though he did manage to top the century mark in frames in each of his four seasons in Milwaukee, Garza only managed a 4.65 earned run average during his time there.
Prior to signing on with the Brewers, of course, Garza had been a steadily useful pitcher, with a 3.84 ERA and 7.6 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9 through over a thousand MLB innings. He turned in a solid first campaign, with a 3.64 ERA through 27 outings, but things trended sharply south in 2015 and Garza never full returned to form.
Tigers To Sign Brayan Pena
The Tigers have agreed to a minors deal with veteran catcher Brayan Pena, according to Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (via Twitter). It is not known at this time whether he’ll receive an invitation to MLB Spring Training, though that certainly seems likely.
As things stand, Detroit seems fairly likely to enter the season with John Hicks backing up James McCann behind the dish. But the organization now has a pair of veterans that could push for a job in camp, with Pena joining Derek Norris as non-roster options. (As regards Norris, those interested in learning more about the team’s somewhat controversial decision to sign him will want to read this piece from Katie Strang of The Athletic.)
As for Pena, he’ll be looking to break back into the majors after a 2017 season in which he failed to earn any MLB time for the first time since his debut year of 2005. Pena spent last season at Triple-A with the Royals organization, where he hit .274/.308/.298 in just 134 plate appearances.
Previously, though, Pena enjoyed a rather lengthy history in the majors. After functioning as a fairly heavily utilized reserve for a few seasons with the Royals and Tigers — the latter of which received one of his best overall seasons in 2013 — Pena signed a two-year deal with the Reds. He ended up receiving extensive action in 2014-15 in Cincinnati, but managed only a .263/.313/.339 batting line there and has not received meaningful MLB time since.
In 1,950 total trips to the plate in his career, he has turned in a .259/.299/.351 batting line with 23 home runs. That’s not an immense amount of offensive output, to be sure, but he has obviously long been valued as a steady contributor in a backup role and will at least represent an important depth piece for the Tigers.
Market Chatter: Marlins, Mets, Cobb, JDM, Astros, Hamilton, Royals
While the Marlins have reportedly been holding talks regarding catcher J.T. Realmuto and outfielder Christian Yelich, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic says that four rival general managers expressed doubt” that a trade will actually take place involving these young assets. Whether that opinion is based on the reportedly astronomical asking prices or other factors isn’t immediately clear. There’s some suggestion from some of Rosenthal’s sources, though, that the Fish are concerned with perception and won’t make a deal unless it seems the offer was overwhelming. That seems largely unlikely, but the already less-than-rosy returns on the initial months of the new ownership have been marred further by reports from the Miami Herald about the incoming plans. Most recently, Barry Jackson reported that CEO Derek Jeter stands to receive a $5MM salary with multi-million-dollar bonuses if he can deliver profitability to the ownership group (of which he is a part). PR considerations aside, there’s certainly a compelling case to deal Realmuto and Yelich rather than take the risk of holding them. Rosenthal argues the organization ought to simply follow through on the rebuilding steps it has taken already, using this offseason as the time to cash in both of those quality young players.
Here are some more market notes:
- The Mets are said to be checking in on the market for third basemen, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. The report suggests that the New York organization is positioning itself as a landing spot for Mike Moustakas or Todd Frazier if they reduce their current asking prices. Similarly, the club has checked in on backstop Jonathan Lucroy as well as left-handed-hitting first basemen Adam Lind and Logan Morrison. (Those two potential first base options, of course, occupy quite different market segments given the former’s age and the latter’s breakout 2017 season.) All told, it still seems the Mets are broadly canvassing the market for possible upgrades, but looking to do so with relatively limited financial resources still available.
- Jon Heyman of Fan Rag has a variety of interesting notes in a look at the top remaining free agents and other notes from around the game. Free agent righty Alex Cobb is “willing” to take a four-year deal at a $70MM guarantee, says Heyman. Of course, that’s also a significant amount more than MLBTR, at least, projected he’d earn on the open market. It would appear there’s still some market development left to go between Cobb and his suitors. Of course, there are also a few higher-regarded starters left whose own situations may need to be resolved first. Meanwhile, fellow free agent righty Andrew Cashner is reportedly angling for a three-year pact. While the 31-year-old did manage a 3.40 ERA in 166 2/3 innings in 2017, teams will be wary given that he carried only a meager 4.6 K/9 on the year.
- Years are also at issue for J.D. Martinez, Heyman explains. Red Sox president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski is not interested in offering more than five years, but Heyman suggests that agent Scott Boras could yet try to make his case at the ownership level. The “word is there are other five-year offers,” Heyman adds, though it remains hard to imagine which other reportedly interested club would be able to compete financially with the Sox for Martinez.
- Heyman also checks in on the closer market. The Astros, he notes, remain interested in adding a high-end, late-inning arm. It’s not entirely clear if they are a realistic suitor for Greg Holland, but in theory he’d be an option. Holland is said to have set out in search of five years in free agency. That never really seemed likely, as he’s 32 years of age and had at least a few late-season stumbles in his first campaign back from Tommy John surgery. Of course, Holland is still expected to secure a significant contract, though a three-year arrangement may be likeliest at this point.
- Though the Reds continue to engage in discussions regarding center fielder Billy Hamilton, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick notes on Twitter that there’s one major potential roadblock. Club owner Bob Castellini is quite hesitant to part with Hamilton, it seems. While there’s no indication that the switch-hitting speed demon is completely off limits, the stance may make it harder to get a deal done.
- As the Royals weigh their options at short, it seems the team is targeting some veterans that figure to be available on lower-cost deals. Incumbent Alcides Escobar remains an option, says Heyman, while Kansas City is also said to be favorably disposed toward Ryan Goins.
Padres Re-Sign Craig Stammen
The Padres have struck a two-year $4.5MM deal with righty Craig Stammen, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (Twitter links). He can earn $100K for ever five appearances between twenty and fifty, with another $150K apiece upon reaching fifty-five and sixty games, per Bob Nightengle of USA Today (via Twitter). The sides were said to be in “serious talks” earlier tonight, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter).
[RELATED: Updated Padres Depth Chart]
Stammen, 33, was among the solid relief arms we cited recently as still being available, but he has now joined quite a few of his bullpen brethren in reaching agreement on a multi-year deal. He’ll return to San Diego, where he enjoyed a nice bounceback season in 2017.
Long a multi-inning staple in the Nationals’ pen, Stammen was severely limited by arm troubles in 2015 and 2016. But he returned to form in a familiar role after earning his way onto the Padres roster after signing a minors pact.
In 80 1/3 innings over sixty appearances, Stammen worked to a 3.14 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and a 51.6% groundball rate — as well as a career-worst 1.34 HR/9 home run rate. With his typical ~92 mph fastball combo, paired mostly with a slider and curve, Stammen managed an 11.4% swinging-strike rate that sits comfortably within the range he carried during his prior years as a successful reliever.
Red Sox Avoid Arbitration With Steven Wright
The Red Sox have avoided arbitration with right-hander Steven Wright, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Wright is slated to earn a $1.1MM salary in his first season of eligibility.
That payday slots in just below the $1.2MM that MLBTR had projected Wright to earn. The knuckler seems to be the odds-on favorite to earn the fifth starter’s role for the Red Sox, barring a surprise outside acquisition.
First, though, he’ll have to show he’s healthy and back in form. Wright’s 2017 season was cut short by knee issues that ultimately required surgery. He ended up taking the ball only five times on the year.
Quite different concerns arose earlier in the offseason when Wright was arrested following a domestic dispute (though there’s no indication it ever became physical). While the league is still investigating the incident, the legal matter has been “retired.”
Boston will hope that Wright can return to something approach the quality he showed in 2016, when a breakout first half earned him an All-Star bid. In 156 2/3 innings over 24 starts that year, Wright worked to a 3.33 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.
Yankees To Sign Jace Peterson
The Yankees have agreed to a minors pact with infielder Jace Peterson, according to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). The 27-year-old will receive an invitation to MLB camp this spring and can earn at a $900K rate in the majors, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets.
Peterson, 27, figures to have a chance at earning a role in the Yankees’ infield rotation, which remains in flux after the organization dealt away veterans Chase Headley and Starlin Castro earlier this winter. It’s still possible that the organization will add some significant pieces, but Peterson could contend for a reserve position regardless.
The Braves could have retained Peterson via arbitration at a projected rate of just $1.1MM. But Atlanta decided it was time to move on after a year in which he slashed just .215/.318/.317 over 215 plate appearances.
If things work out, the Yanks could yet control Peterson for two or more seasons through the arb process. Peterson has just 3.003 years of service, so if he spends a bit of time in the minors to open the year, it’s possible he’d still have three years of control ahead of him.
It’s worth remembering that Peterson was not long ago considered a quality prospect. And he did turn in a .254/.350/.366 output, with 52 walks against 69 strikeouts, over 408 plate appearances in 2016. Peterson has also shown wide platoon splits; while that doesn’t bode well for his potential to one day turn into a regular, it does suggest that he could be more useful to an organization that is able to pair him with other players.
NL Notes: Kang, Cutch/Mets, Giants, Marlins, Baez
Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette takes a long look at the path of Pirates infielder Jung Ho Kang, who recently washed out of Dominican winter ball and still does not appear to have an avenue back to playing in the majors. It’s well worth reading the piece in its entirety for a glance at Kang’s hard-to-decipher rise and fall. And it’s worth noting that Nesbitt says some within Kang’s former organization, the Nexen Heroes, are hopeful that the power-hitting infielder could negotiate an exit from his contract with the Pirates to pave the way for a return to the team for which he long starred in Korea.
Here’s more from the National League:
- The Pirates and Mets have again engaged in some talks involving long-time Bucs star Andrew McCutchen, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). As things stand, though, it seems there’s no reason to believe the Mets are a particularly likely destination. The 31-year-old looks to be a solid value after a nice bounceback season, but at $14.75MM on a one-year commitment he’s not exactly teeming with value, either. And that’s still a big payroll hit for the Mets, who are reportedly looking to upgrade in several areas without greatly increasing their 2018 financial commitments. From the Pittsburgh perspective, of course, the team seems mostly still to be considering arrangements that will maximize resources without fully committing to win-now or future-oriented extreme. That’s the broad takeaway from the mailbag of MLB.com’s Adam Berry, who nicely covers a variety of topics of interest to Bucs fans.
- Meanwhile, the Giants — who have also been tied to McCutchen — are still working through a broad slate of possibilities, as Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. GM Bobby Evans says the organization is “not really focused on the calendar” and views its options as “still very satisfying.” Patience has been the name of the game for just about all of baseball’s key actors this winter; the question remains when and how transactions will begin in earnest. For the Giants, the key limitations revolve around a desire to dip below the luxury tax line and a hesitancy to part with the best of their relatively meager prospect assets. As Schulman notes on Twitter, rivals have not only focused on outfielder Heliot Ramos, but also young pitchers Andrew Suarez and Tyler Beede.
- It has already been an eventful and somewhat controversial offeason for the Marlins. As Danny Knobler writes for Bleacher Report, the new ownership group’s decision to move large contracts and launch a rebuild may feel unfortunate, and has not been conducted in an artful manner, but largely fall in line with what was viewed as necessary given the financial limitations and roster needs that had arisen. Perhaps there’s still a chance that the Marlins can salvage the situation from a PR perspective, though, if they can make a case to fans that they have mostly just been acting strategically — that is, methodically working through necessary trade talks without giving away their true, full intentions in a manner that may have appeased fans but drained leverage. The proof, perhaps, will be in the results of the still-percolating trade talks surrounding J.T. Realmuto and Christian Yelich — both of whom are arguably more valuable trade assets than the players who’ve already been dealt. As Rosenthal tweets, the Marlins are not prioritizing financial matters in marketing Realmuto and Yelich; rather, the club is “seeking [the] best talent” it can get its hands on. It will certainly be interesting to see how those discussions progress over the coming weeks, as it seems there’s broad interest from quite a few teams that could deliver major assets back to the Marlins.
- Winter Meetings chatter between the Padres and Cubs involving infielder Javier Baez failed to develop, per another Rosenthal report. It’s “likely” that Chicago was looking to pick up “a controllable starter” in any such deal, says Rosenthal, and the San Diego organization was just not interested in dangling Dinelson Lamet or Luis Perdomo. The sides also held some discussions involving Baez and Friars lefty Brad Hand, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Precise formulations of potential trade packages are not really clear, but it probably shouldn’t be too surprising to hear that those particular names came up. It seems that ship has sailed at this point, though in theory the sides could always strike up talks again if one or the other has a change of heart. Lin also addresses a few other topics of note; in particular, he says the Pads are likely just about done adding rotation options, so fans looking for a Jake Peavy reunion shouldn’t hold their breath.