Padres To Sign Chris Young
SATURDAY: Young’s incentives begin at five games started and 30 innings pitched, and they can max out at approximately 30 starts and 120 innings, per Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (Twitter link).
FRIDAY, 8:58pm: Young can earn a $1MM base salary if he makes the team, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. The deal also includes as much as $6MM in potential incentives, with games started and innings pitched providing the standard.
6:50pm: The Padres are adding another former starter on a minors deal after striking agreement with Chris Young, according to Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter). The 38-year-old will join a Spring Training rotation battle that now also includes Tyson Ross.
Young, 38, opened the 2017 campaign with the Royals but was released in late June. He has rested up since, with reports indicating that he intended to ramp back up for another attempt at what would be his 14th MLB campaign.
At this point, it’s difficult to expect much out of Young, who stumbled to a 6.52 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 118 2/3 frames in the majors since the start of 2016. Interestingly, that slippage has occurred even with Young sporting a swinging-strike rate of over 11% — levels he had maintained over a full season only once in his career — by drastically increasing his slider usage. Then again, he has also been touched for 2.7 home runs per nine over the past two seasons.
Perhaps, though, Young can still find a way to be effective, particularly after a lengthy layoff. Before boosting his whiff rate, he had actually managed two consecutive seasons with excellent results. In 288 1/3 frames between 2014 and 2015, he worked to a 3.40 ERA. And he has continued to post above-average infield fly rates even as the other tinkering has left him prone to the long ball.
American League Notes: Machado, Indians, Orioles
The Red Sox are “showing continued trade interest” in star Orioles infielder Manny Machado, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). That said, it’s unclear just how strong a connection there may be between the division rivals. While not specifically referencing Morosi’s report, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets that interest from Boston has been “overstated.” Overall, it’s hard to assess the current state of the Machado market; while a variety of organizations are no doubt still intrigued at the idea of a deal, there’s no real indication that there have been changes in the offers or the asking price.
Here’s more from the American League:
- While the Indians have pushed their payroll upwards in recent years, Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon-Journal writes that the period of growth seems to be at an end. Despite attempting to re-sign Carlos Santana, it seems unlikely the organization will pursue any further major free agents after landing Yonder Alonso on a fairly modest two-year deal. Cleveland’s front office is obviously still looking to improve in the near-term, but sustainability is a key consideration as well.
- Regardless of what happens with Machado, the Orioles are still in need of a lefty bat, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. He explains that it still seems more likely the missing southpaw stick will arrive in the form of a corner outfielder. While the organization has engaged in “internal discussions” regarding Jon Jay, says Kubatko, it does not seem there’s real interest there. At this point, though, it does not seem as if there’s any real indication at all which way the O’s may go.
Heyman’s Latest: Nats, Yelich, Giants, Napoli
In his latest run of notes from around the game, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag touches upon a variety of topics. Many are covered in an omnibus post, while others get their own full treatment. Here are a few highlights with particular hot stove relevance:
- The Nationals have put out feelers on the top available relievers, says Heyman, even though the club surely isn’t desperate to find a new option in the ninth inning. While Wade Davis is now off the board, it seems Greg Holland could yet be an option for the Nats. And of broader importance, the report suggests that further bullpen upgrades are still under consideration as the team considers how it can put the finishing touches on an already-strong roster.
- Numerous teams are obviously preparing to pursue Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich, who the Fish are reportedly increasingly willing to deal. Just how likely is a deal? Heyman cites a few sources who describe the situation as one in which the club is making Yelich and teammate J.T. Realmuto available in talks. Among the organizations with some level of interest in Yelich, per Heyman, are the Diamondbacks, Braves, and Giants. No doubt there are plenty of others, too, that will line up for both players.
- Speaking of options, the Giants are evidently still looking at quite a range of options in the outfield. Heyman says that trade candidates include not only Yelich but also Andrew McCutchen and Juan Lagares. (Others, of course, have linked the team to Billy Hamilton throughout the winter.) The free agent market is still chock full of possibilities, and Heyman says the team is still a potential landing spot for top option J.D. Martinez as well as the previously rumored Jay Bruce. Beyond that, Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, Jarrod Dyson, and Jon Jay seem to be on the radar for the Giants.
- There have been some conflicting signals floating around on slugger Mike Napoli, it seems clear there’s serious interest between him and the Twins. The veteran slugger hasn’t lined up yet with Minnesota, but Heyman says some believe it’s “something of a likelihood” that a deal will ultimately be struck between the sides. Of course, there are still quite a few other defensively-limited sluggers on the market, but it seems the Twins are focused on Napoli both to add some pop and provide a strong veteran presence to the young squad.
Twins Sign Zach Duke
DEC. 29: Duke will receive $2.15MM, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. Per Berardino, via Twitter, Duke can add $200K bonuses for making his 40th and 50th appearances, $300K at #55 and #60, and another $500K if he takes the ball 65 times.
DEC. 26, 9:05pm: Duke’s guarantee is “just over” $2MM and he can earn up to $1.5MM more via incentives, Berardino tweets.
5:30pm: The Twins have officially announced Duke’s one-year contract.
10:10am: 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson tweets that Duke’s contract is a Major League deal that is expected to be worth between $1.5MM and $2MM. Minnesota’s 40-man roster is full with the addition of Duke.
DEC. 25: The Twins have agreed to a deal with veteran lefty Zach Duke, as KFAN’s Paul Lambert first tweeted. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press confirms on Twitter, adding that the deal is still pending a physical. Terms of the arrangement aren’t yet known. Duke is a client of ISE Baseball.
Duke, 34, is coming off of a limited 2017 campaign. Despite undergoing Tommy John surgery in mid-October of 2016, he managed to bounce back in time to make 27 appearances for the Cardinals.
As might have been expected, given his rapid return, Duke showed some rust. He recorded only 5.9 K/9 and allowed far more hard contact (37.0%) than usual while posting a 3.93 ERA over 18 1/3 frames. On the other hand, the southpaw allowed only a .197/.284/.364 batting line to opposing hitters (with minimal platoon splits) and generated rates of swinging strikes (10.9%) and groundballs (50.4%) that were not out of line with the figures he has maintained in recent seasons.
[Related: Updated Minnesota Twins depth chart]
For Minnesota, the move gives the team a potentially solid second lefty to pair with Taylor Rogers at what will likely turn out to be a marginal commitment. If Duke can rebound to anything like the form he showed over the prior three seasons — over which he posted a 2.74 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 over 180 1/3 innings — then he’ll surely represent a true bargain.
The Twins have already added Fernando Rodney to bolster a questionable late-inning unit. Perhaps, then, the organization will turn its focus to addressing other needs, though surely additional bullpen moves will at least be considered. The 2017 unit, after all, rated 22nd among all MLB teams by measure of both fWAR and ERA.
Rockies Designate Shane Carle
The Rockies have designated righty Shane Carle for assignment, according to the MLB Roster Moves Twitter account. His roster spot was needed for the team’s signing of closer Wade Davis.
Carle, 26, made his MLB debut last year in Colorado, though he saw only four innings of action. That’s too small a sample to tell much of anything, but he did exhibit a 94.0 mph average fastball.
As in 2016, Carle spent most of the year at Triple-A, where he worked primarily as a reliever after spending most of his prior career in the rotation. The former tenth-round pick ended the 2017 campaign with a 5.37 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 over 62 innings.
MLBTR Chat Transcript: Davis, Closers, Cards, Rockies
Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with host Jeff Todd.
Transaction Retrospective: The First Aroldis Chapman Swap
Tomorrow is the two-year anniversary of the trade that sent Aroldis Chapman from the Reds to the Yankees. While Chapman is currently ensconced as New York’s closer, just as he was in the wake of the swap, the intervening period has seen quite a few twists and turns.
Six years before the trade, the Reds had landed Chapman as a free agent, staking a hefty $30.25MM bet on the power pitcher from Cuba. He proved the team wise, providing 319 innings of 2.17 ERA pitching and racking up 146 saves.
Entering the 2015-16 offseason, though, it seemed clear that it was time for both sides to move on. Chapman had just one year of control remaining, after all, and the Reds were coming off of a 64-win season. While the team struggled, Chapman was his typically dominant self, and seemed positioned to draw a big return.
In early December, it seemed Chapman was destined to join Kenley Jansen to form a terrifying one-two punch in Los Angeles. Precise details of the proposed Dodgers swap were never clear, though reportedly the Reds would not have added then-top L.A. prospects Julio Urias, Corey Seager, or Jose De Leon.
Just when it seemed a deal was imminent, though, a stunning off-field development intervened, as reports emerged that Chapman had been arrested earlier in the offseason for a troubling domestic incident. With Chapman’s reputation tarnished and a possible suspension looming, the Dodgers backed away and the market dried up.
Thus it was that the Yankees stepped into the void and placed a somewhat controversial bet on the game’s most intimidating reliever. Despite already carrying a fantastic late-inning duo of Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances, the Yanks saw an opportunity to create a three-headed bullpen monster. They shipped four prospects — third baseman Eric Jagielo, second baseman Tony Renda, and right-handers Rookie Davis and Caleb Cotham — to Cincinnati to acquire Chapman.
The risk, really, was never on the field or even in the course of the investigation: Chapman was one of the surest relievers in baseball and had he received a sufficiently lengthy suspension, he’d have been eligible for another season of arbitration. Rather, the Yanks were gambling that Chapman would be valuable enough to warrant absorbing a significant public relations hit.
While he was never arrested or charged with a crime, Chapman was rightly criticized and ultimately suspended for what commissioner Rob Manfred determined to be violent actions directed toward his girlfriend. He eventually acknowledged he “should have exercised better judgment” but insisted he “did not in any way harm [his] girlfriend that evening.”
At the same time, it is hard to escape the conclusion that the Yankees benefited greatly from taking him on. After returning from a thirty-game ban, Chapman picked up right where he left off, throwing 31 1/3 innings of 2.01 ERA pitching leading into the trade deadline. With the Yanks in a less-than-promising postseason position, the organization decided to market Chapman in the summer trade market, finding interest far more robust than had existed just months earlier.
Thus it was that the Yankees ended up with a foursome of players immensely more valuable than that which it had shipped to Cincinnati. New York sold the rights to rent Chapman for the remainder of 2016 to the Cubs, who obviously saw him as the final piece needed on a World Series-caliber roster.
Infielder Gleyber Torres was the undeniable headliner; he’s now seen as one of the game’s very best prospects. Though Rashad Crawford has yet to show much since coming to New York, outfielder Billy McKinney is now fresh off of a promising season in which he restored some of his former prospect luster. And the Yanks even came away with right-hander Adam Warren, who has provided 87 2/3 productive relief innings since the swap and is still under team control via arbitration for one more season.
Then, of course, there’s the fact that Chapman ended up returning to the Bronx after his brief stint with the Cubs. In the first year of his record-setting $86MM contract, the now-29-year-old Chapman wasn’t quite as devastating as usual — his 3.22 ERA was the second-highest mark of his career, and he has never before ended a season with a lower strikeout rate than his 12.3 K/9 — but he still averaged a triple-digit heater. While there are some signs of concern, including a plummeting swinging-strike rate, Chapman generally figures to remain one of baseball’s better closers for some time.
As for the Reds? Only Davis and Jagielo remain in the organization. As for the former, there’s certainly hope he’ll be a MLB contributor. Davis did make it up to the majors in 2017, though he struggled quite a bit and was less than dominant at the highest level of the minors. Jagielo, 25, struggled in his first attempt at Triple-A in 2017 and does not rate among the organization’s top thirty prospects, per MLB.com.
It remains a major disappointment for the Reds that they were unable to fully capitalize on Chapman. While some argued that the organization was foolish not to have carried him into the 2016 season rather than accepting a discounted return, that action would have come with its own significant risks. If there’s a silver lining, perhaps it’s that the Reds have since come to realize another successful investment in a high-powered Cuban reliever. Raisel Iglesias has now established himself as one of the game’s best young closers. For the time being, at least, it seems he’s staying put as the anchor of the Cincinnati bullpen.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Latest On Market For Josh Harrison
In an update on the market for Pirates second baseman Josh Harrison, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune Review writes that a “handful” of organizations have at least reached out to gauge the asking price. Indeed, there’s some indication that he’s the Bucs’ most heavily pursued trade candidate.
Among the teams to have reached out are the Yankees, Mets, and Blue Jays. The Yanks were tied recently, albeit somewhat speculatively, to Harrison in relation to a potentially larger move involving Gerrit Cole. Interest from the latter two was reported a few weeks back (see here and here), though it’s notable to hear they’re still in pursuit.
Though further pursuers haven’t yet been identified, it isn’t difficult to imagine quite a few other clubs having interest. Harrison, after all, can play all over the diamond and would fit quite comfortably on a number of rosters.
His contract rights are also rather appealing. The 30-year-old will earn a reasonable $10MM in 2018 and can be controlled by successive club options. At $10.5MM and $11.5MM apiece, they won’t exactly come at a bargain rate, but the flexibility is plenty desirable in its own right.
Harrison likely won’t replicate his excellent 2014 campaign, but was plenty productive in 2017. He ended the year with a solid .272/.339/.432 batting line and career-best 16 home runs to go with a dozen steals. As usual, Harrison rated as a quality defender and baserunner, making him an approximately 3-WAR player despite only carrying league-average production at the plate.
At this point, it does not seem that any team has emerged as a clear favorite to acquire Harrison — or even that the Pirates are more likely than not to move him. While the organization could fill in from within should it deal Harrison, there’s also little question that he improves the team’s outlook for 2018. Just how inclined the Pirates will be to move him may hinge on whether they end up dealing Cole and/or long-time franchise face Andrew McCutchen.
Reds To Sign Daniel Wright
The Reds have agreed to a minor-league deal with righty Daniel Wright, according to SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). It seems reasonable to anticipate that he’ll receive an MLB camp invite, though that’s not yet clear.
Wright, 26, has worked to a 5.61 ERA with 4.9 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 over 59 1/3 MLB innings in the prior two seasons. All of those outings came with the Angels, who claimed Wright from Cincinnati — the organization that originally drafted him — in early September of 2016.
All in all, it was a tough 2017 campaign for Wright, who sits at only about 90 mph with his fastball but works in three offspeed offerings (a change, slider, and curve) with regularity. He logged 92 2/3 innings at Triple-A, almost entirely as a starter, but was torched for a 6.99 ERA and managed only 5.9 K/9 with 3.4 BB/9.
Managers And Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts
There are quite a few notable managers and top front office executives (general managers or heads of baseball operations who have different titles) entering their last guaranteed year under contract in 2018, creating even more pressure than usual to have a good season. Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for providing many of these contract details.
As always with this list, it should be noted that contract length is far from an absolute measure of job security. Teams with seemingly stable management could be one disastrous season away from a shakeup in the dugout or front office, while some of the managers or executives listed here could have “stay as long as you want” handshake deals in place. Some teams also don’t publicize contract details for front office executives, so some of the names on the list could have already quietly signed extensions, or there could be other execs entering their last year under contract.
Here are some of the names who could be facing a hotter seat than usual in 2018 (alphabetical order by organization) …
Angels: Long-time manager Mike Scioscia is in an interesting situation as he wraps up an unusually massive contract — ten years at a guaranteed $50MM. After a few disappointing campaigns, there’s definitely pressure to win. And expectations are on the rise as GM Billy Eppler continues to add significant pieces in what has been a highly productive offseason. Just what the future holds really isn’t clear from the outside, but it’ll be fascinating to see how things shake out for Scioscia, who is easily the longest-tenured skipper in the game.
Braves: The Atlanta organization was hit by surprise front office upheaval, perhaps nudging the team to seek stability in the dugout. Thus it was that manager Brian Snitker had his option exercised despite a disappointing second half of the 2017 season. It’s hard to know whether Snitker will have a legitimate shot at maintaining his job into the future, though perhaps he can force the hand of new GM Alex Anthopoulos with a strong performance.
Dodgers: Dave Roberts is almost certainly not going anywhere after managing the Dodgers to the World Series in 2017. But this is the final guaranteed season of his rookie managerial deal, with the club also possessing a 2019 option. It wouldn’t be surprising at all if longer-term negotiations take place at some point over the current offseason.
Indians: Similarly, Cleveland skipper Terry Francona seems to be rather embedded in his organization’s fabric. He is not promised anything past 2018, though the team does possess consecutive options over the ensuing two campaigns. Barring a surprising turn of events, it seems likely Francona will continue running the clubhouse through the end of the potential term contemplated in his deal.
Nationals: It’s hard to know what Nats ownership will do, but president of baseball operations/GM Mike Rizzo has indicated he’s happy either to fulfill his duties as a lame duck or to discuss a new deal if approached. Despite wild success in the regular season — the second-most wins in the majors since 2012, with four NL East titles — the club has fizzled out repeatedly in the postseason. That led to the surprising departure of manager Dusty Baker after the ’17 campaign. All that said, it’d be quite a surprise for the organization to let go of Rizzo, who has steadily produced results throughout his tenure.
Orioles: Things are even more interesting on the north side of the beltway, as O’s executive VP of baseball ops Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter are each entering contract years. There are persistent rumors of discord between those two figures, who’ll also be looking to navigate some tricky roster limitations after a disappointing 2017 season in which the club posted a losing record for the first time since 2011.
Rangers: Indications are that president of baseball ops/GM Jon Daniels is going to lock up a new deal with the organization, though at this point — so far as is known — he’s only under contract through the coming campaign. Meanwhile, manager Jeff Banister may be on shakier ground if he can’t help engineer a turnaround. He’s in a contract year, too, though the club can also simply decide at some point to pick up his 2019 option.
Reds: One of the hottest managerial seats in the game is likely the one in Cincinnati. Current leader Bryan Price was given another chance to work with a still-transitioning roster in 2018, though the club did not pursue any additional future security. Just what the expectations are — further development? real movement in the standings? — isn’t immediately clear, but Price will need to state his case to retain his job.
Royals: Having led the K.C. club to a stunning World Series win, skipper Ned Yost likely isn’t in any risk. But he is entering the final year of the two-year extension he signed after the 2015 season. The Royals are readying for a new phase after losing several core players to free agency, creating some uncertainty. Yost says he doesn’t expect still to be at the helm when the club is again cresting, but has indicated he hopes “to get a firm footing and a firm foundation on the ground” to hand off to a successor. Just how long he and the team will want to continue the current arrangement isn’t known.