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At Least Six Teams Seriously Interested In Tom Koehler

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At least six teams have “expressed significant interest” in Tom Koehler, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. Koehler was recently non-tendered by the Blue Jays.

Koehler had been a reliable back-end starter for the Marlins for most of his career. However, he struggled out of the gates for Miami in 2017. The right-hander posted a 7.92 ERA in twelve starts for the Fish, at least in part due to horrific command; he walked 29 batters and allowed 15 home runs across 55 2/3 innings. ERA estimators such as FIP, xFIP and SIERA suggest that he was better than his surface results indicate, but all three still pegged him at a 5.00+ ERA performance.

After bouncing between the Marlins’ major league club and Triple-A New Orleans for the majority of the season, Koehler was traded to the Blue Jays and pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen. As a reliever, he dramatically reduced the usage of his slider in favor of more curveballs. That led to some respectable results; Koehler’s strikeout rate jumped to 24% (up from 17% with the Marlins), and he managed to get his walks somewhat under control as well. The result was a respectable 2.65 ERA in an admittedly small sample size of 17 innings.

Despite his solid performance in Toronto, the Jays elected not to tender Koehler a contract for the 2018 season. It wasn’t entirely a surprise; the righty was projected to earn about $6MM in his final trip through arbitration after making $5.75MM in 2017. Koehler was listed among MLBTR’s non-tender candidates.

It makes perfect sense that Koehler would have a large handful of suitors. He could be viewed as either a bounce back four or five starter, or a multi-inning relief option with decent upside; either would be intriguing to a plethora of MLB teams. The 31-year-old will be relatively inexpensive, and probably won’t require a commitment longer than one year.

Mets Reportedly Willing To Trade Matt Harvey

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Sources close to Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News tell her that the Mets have talked to “at least two teams” about trading former All-Star Matt Harvey this winter. This seems to be part of a larger strategy that Ackert describes as “dipping into their strength of starting pitchers to address their needs heading into the 2018 season.”

One of Ackert’s sources says that the Mets want to “flip Harvey for a reliever”, and are more interested in moving him than fellow Amazin starters Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo. The report aligns with quotes from GM Sandy Alderson, who told reporters that no player on the roster is untouchable (though in contradiction, the organization has seemingly made it clear that starters Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard are not on the table).

The thought of trading the right-handed Harvey for a relief pitcher would have seemed ludicrous as recently as 2015. After missing the 2014 season due to Tommy John surgery, Harvey seemingly made a full recovery; he pitched to a sparkling 2.71 ERA across 189 1/3 innings, including a fantastic month of August during which he allowed just one earned run spanning four starts. His performance helped the Mets to a 90-72 record en route to their first NL East pennant since 2006.

Unfortunately, Harvey’s numbers plummeted steeply in 2016. The one-time ace experienced a slight drop in velocity (along with some terrible batted ball fortune), which led to a 4-10 record and a 4.86 ERA prior to season-ending surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. His velocity and strikeout rate dropped off even further in 2017, leading to horrific peripherals: 6.51 K/9, 4.56 BB/9, and a 6.39 FIP that ranked third-worst among pitchers who started at least 15 games.

The Dark Knight’s fall from grace has been widely publicized. His trade value, of course, is at an all-time low; Harvey performed at nearly a full win below replacement level last season, carries significant injury risk, and projects to earn a $5.9MM salary in his final year of arbitration. Though he carries significant upside, it’s fair to wonder how likely Harvey is to revert back to his 2015 form. After failing to reach 100 innings in each of the past two seasons, teams are likely to be skeptical over Harvey’s bounce-back potential.

Still, it’s not difficult to imagine an MLB club taking a flyer on Harvey at the price of an “impact reliever.” The Yankees and Brewers, for example, seem to have reasonable bullpen depth and a need in the rotation; either of them could feasibly flip a relief arm for the chance to play roulette with the former six-WAR player. It’s also important to note that the Mets’ wish list isn’t limited to bullpen help. The club is also looking to add a second baseman, along with a part-time first baseman or outfielder (link).

While Harvey has performed poorly in recent years, it’s worth noting that he’ll enter the 2018 season at just under 29 years of age. Regardless of whether he’s traded or not, his storyline headed into 2018 will be captivating and suspenseful.

 

Mets Have Talked With Indians, Tigers About Trades For Second Baseman

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7:02pm: The Tigers’ efforts to trade Kinsler have “intensified” of late, Katie Strang of The Athletic reports (subscription required and recommended). Moving Kinsler will be a key area of focus for Detroit during the upcoming week, Strang adds, given that the team has a full 40-man roster with Thursday’s Rule 5 draft approaching. The Tigers are slated to pick first in the draft, and dealing Kinsler by then would give them room to select a player with that choice.

9:31am: According to Marc Carig of Newsday, the Mets have had talks about significant potential trades for Ian Kinsler of the Tigers and Jason Kipnis of the Indians. The Mets may also use the winter meetings to explore a deal with the Pirates for Josh Harrison, says Carig.

At this point, Carig clarifies, it seems as though the Mets have had much more dialogue with the Tigers regarding Kinsler; however there’s “some skepticism about a deal getting done there”.

It’s certainly no surprise to hear that a team with a need at second base has inquired on Kinsler. The last-place Tigers endured a rough first half last season that culminated in a decision to tear down and rebuild. Veterans J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton and Justin Verlander were all traded to different contending teams, and Detroit ultimately finished the season with just 64 wins. With no serious ability to contend next season, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd already pointed out that Kinsler seems like a prime trade candidate.

While Kinsler finished 2017 with his worst full season by fWAR (2.4), he’s a solid bounceback candidate for a Mets team with plans to push for a pennant in 2018. Kinsler hit just .236/.313/.412 this past season, but was seemingly held back by some terrible luck with BABIP (.244). At 35, he’s no sure bet to return to previous form, but considering he combined for 9.8 fWAR between 2015 and 2016, acquiring Kinsler could be well worth the risk for the Mets.

The news about talks for Kipnis are perhaps a bit more surprising. There’s been some speculation about Kipnis as a trade candidate this offseason; he’s coming off a down offensive year during which he hit just .232/.291/.414 and missed significant time due to shoulder and hamstring injuries, and he seems to have been displaced at the keystone by teammate Jose Ramirez. However, Kipnis is one of the more significant faces in the Indians franchise, and he’s been one of their best offensive players overall for the past half-decade. To this point, there’s been no indication from Cleveland’s camp that they’d be willing to trade Kipnis at all; the fact that they’ve had talks with the Mets about him seems to imply that they’re at least willing to explore trade scenarios.

Of course, there’s no real word as to the extent of the trade talks surrounding Kipnis. The report that the Mets have had more dialogue about Kinsler and that such a deal is met with skepticism seems to imply that negotiations for Kipnis are far from advanced. It could be that the Mets were simply doing their due diligence, and that the Indians were willing to listen. Regardless, Kipnis being available to any extent would add an interesting new twist to a second base market that no longer includes Dee Gordon.

While there’s not much word yet on the Mets’ reported interest in Harrison, he’d also be an upgrade to their current depth chart. Harrison has been a solid infielder for the Pirates over the past four seasons, and is capable of playing in the outfield and at third base as well. The Pirates haven’t yet signaled whether or not they’re making a push for contention, but if they decide to rebuild instead, Harrison would be one of the more obvious trade candidates. The 30-year-old is guaranteed $11.5MM for the remainder of his contract, which includes salary for 2018 season as well as buyouts for 2019 and 2020. Harrison hit .272/.339/.432 across 542 plate appearances for Pittsburgh last season.

Mets Notes: Castro, Reed, Pitchers

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The Mets may have a new option in their pursuit of a second baseman. Following today’s Giancarlo Stanton trade agreement, the Marlins are on track to acquire Starlin Castro, meaning they could be marketing a new second baseman just days after trading Dee Gordon to the Mariners. According to Mike Puma of the New York Post, the Mets plan to speak with the Marlins regarding Castro. The 27-year-old Castro is a great hitter (.300 batting average in 2017), but his offensive value is somewhat held back by his lack of patience (4.9 BB%). Furthermore, he hasn’t provided much in the way of defensive value over the past two seasons. Still, Castro would be an upgrade over any of the current options on the Mets’ depth chart, and he’s been a roughly average big-league player on the whole during his eight-year MLB career. Castro might not require much in the way of a prospect return, either, and he can be controlled through the 2020 season if his club chooses to exercise a $16MM option.

More items from Queens…

  • Marc Carig of Newsday throws some cold water on the idea of a Mets-Marlins deal involving Castro. He tweets that although it’s possible the Mets could check in on the Marlins’ newest acquisition, it’s “not likely” that a deal will come together. The Mets reportedly prefer other second base options, so it sounds as though Carig’s sources believe they would exhaust those options before engaging in any serious negotiations with Miami.
  • In news of other Mets pursuits, Carig reports that the Mets are interested in a reunion with Addison Reed (Twitter link). The two sides apparently discussed an extension last spring, and for good reason; Reed was perhaps at his best during his tenure in New York. The righty reliever struck out 139 batters 126 2/3 innings with the Mets while walking just 19. His ERA was a pristine 2.20 during that time, though his xFIP (3.28) suggests there was some luck involved. Still, a 4.47 WPA is a great mark for a reliever over a season and a half, and Reed’s 12.1% swinging strike rate is impressive as well.
  • In a third tweet, Carig reveals that the Mets are open to trading any of their starting pitchers besides Jacob DeGrom and Noah Syndergaard. While there’s nothing brewing yet, Carig speculates that the Amazins could shop a starter in exchange for a second baseman. From my perspective, this hypothetical strategy could prove difficult. The Mets have reportedly shown interest in Jason Kipnis, but the Indians’ rotation is an area of great strength for the them and they don’t need to trade for another starter. The Tigers and Marlins are in the early stages of rebuilds, so they might be looking for minor league returns for Ian Kinsler and Starlin Castro, respectively, rather than players already at the MLB level. The Mets have shown reported interest in Josh Harrison of the Pirates as well, and the Bucs could use some help in the rotation; perhaps they’d be the best partner for this theoretical strategy.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/9/17

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We’ll keep track of today’s minor moves in this post.

  • The Rays have bolstered their bullpen depth by signing right-hander Cody Hall to a minor-league deal, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets. The pact includes an invitation to spring training. As Topkin notes, Hall has made major-league relief appearances with the Giants (who originally drafted him in 2011) and the Marlins. He’s only made nine MLB appearances, however, and the results weren’t good; Hall allowed ten earned runs in just 11 1/3 innings. The upside for Hall seems to lie in his strikeout ability; the 29-year-old struck out 33.1% of the batters he faced with the Giants’ Double-A affiliate last season.

Earlier…

  • The Nationals announced that they have signed David Goforth to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training camp. The 29-year-old right-hander was a seventh-round selection of the Brewers in the 2011 draft, with whom he’d spent his entire professional career until now. Though he spent the 2012 and 2013 seasons as a starter in the minor leagues, he transitioned into a relief role in 2014 and hasn’t made a start since. Goforth averages about 96MPH on his fastball, but hasn’t been consistent with his command. He’s also struggled to keep the ball in the park at the major league level, as shown by his 1.73 HR/9. However, while the 5’10” reliever’s 5.94 ERA may seem ugly on the surface, his 3.98 xFIP and high fastball velocity paint him as someone with intriguing upside.
  • The Rangers have signed former Braves prospect Yenci Pena for $675K, according to Ben Badler of Baseball America. The Rangers were currently holding one of the largest international bonus pools in baseball, perhaps in part because they were attempting to lure Shohei Ohtani to Texas. However, they’ll now focus those funds elsewhere, and the 17-year-old Pena is how they chose to kick off that spending. The shortstop originally signed with the Braves out of the Dominican Republic for $1.05MM, but hit just .230/.328/.327 in his first taste of pro baseball. However, his 12.8% walk rate helped make him a roughly average offensive player in rookie ball.

NL Central Notes: Cardinals, Cubs, Brewers

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Though the Cardinals weren’t able to convince Giancarlo Stanton to waive his no-trade clause, they may yet be able to work out a trade with the Marlins. Specifically, rival execs say they expect the Redbirds to make a “legit pitch” for fellow outfielders Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich, Jerry Crasnick of ESPN tweets. Crasnick describes a deal for Ozuna or Yelich as more of a “pure baseball trade” than a deal for Stanton, adding that he believes that’s more in the confines of St. Louis GM John Mozeliak’s comfort zone. While it would require a lot more in terms of prospects to land one of the Marlins’ remaining outfielders, previous negotiations for Stanton could potentially expedite trade talks. It stands to reason that the two teams should already be quite familiar with each others’ valuations on several Cardinals prospects. Furthermore, the Cardinals may have already evaluated avenues for what to do with Randal Grichuk or Stephen Piscotty in the event they are able to acquire a new outfielder. It will be interesting to see if anything unfolds between these two teams during the winter meetings.

  • The Cubs have their sights set on Rays pitchers Alex Colome and Chris Archer, Phil Rogers of MLB.com reports with a tweet, though he acknowledges that getting both in one swoop would require a “monster return.” From my point of view, it seems difficult to imagine that the Cubs could put together a package worthy of Archer alone; their farm system is devoid of top 100 prospects following several promotions over the past few seasons, coupled with trades for players such as Wade Davis, Aroldis Chapman and Jose Quintana. Archer alone would require at least some players from the major league club. It’s tough to know whether giving up one or more of Ian Happ, Javier Baez or Kyle Schwarber (to name just a few examples) in exchange for pitching would significantly improve the major league team. The top three names in the Cubs’ farm system (according to MLB Pipeline) are right-handed pitchers Oscar de la Cruz, Jose Albertos and Adbert Alzolay.
  • Tom Haudricort of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel details some of Brewers GM David Stearns’ comments about the upcoming winter meetings. Last year, Stearns had no idea he’d gain enough traction in talks for Travis Shaw to actually complete a trade during the meetings. “You’re never really sure which one will be the one you get a foothold on,” Stearns said. “Last year, we were able to get that foothold in the Shaw talks and get a deal done.” Haudricort describes adding to a thin starting rotation as a “major priority” for Stearns this winter, noting that Jimmy Nelson might not be healthy in time for Opening Day. Beyond Chase Anderson, Junior Guerra and Zach Davies, there aren’t any definite fixtures in the rotation. Josh Hader performed well in the bullpen last year, but the notion of transitioning him back to a starting role remains simply a “topic of discussion.” Stearns notes that Hader’s role with the team will depend on how the offseason shakes out, as well as continued internal dialogue about how he fits best on the team. The only thing Stearns would commit to is that Hader will be in a “position to accumulate innings.” On the notion of that the Brewers could pursue big-ticket names like Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish, Stearns had the following comment: “Our market and our history here probably is a better indicator of the types of moves we’re seeking than some of the external speculation.”

Two Teams Have Made Offers To Bryan Shaw

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Dec. 9th: Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets that the Mets made an offer to Shaw around Thanksgiving. Shaw, however, “might be inclined” to wait for closers Greg Holland and Wade Davis to sign in order to let the market for setup men establish itself.

Nov. 25th: Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press reports via Twitter that the Twins are not one of the teams that made an offer to Shaw, according to a source with “direct knowledge”.

Nov. 24th: According to Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com, two separate teams have made multi-year offers to Indians free agent reliever Bryan Shaw. As of now, the identities of the two teams are not yet known.

Hoynes notes that the Mets are reportedly among the teams that have shown interest in the right-hander. Shaw has spent the last five seasons with the Indians, during which time newly-minted Mets manager Mickey Callaway was his pitching coach.

Shaw has long been one of baseball’s most durable relievers. Since coming to Cleveland in the three-team trade that sent Shin-Soo Choo to the Reds, the 6’1″ righty has logged at least 64 innings. During that time, he’s appeared in a major league-leading 378 games. That kind of consistency from a reliever is rare, making him a coveted asset in this year’s free agent crop. Shaw ranked 25th on this year’s iteration of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions. For what it’s worth, MLBTR picked Shaw to land with the Red Sox.

Durability wasn’t the only reason Shaw earned a spot in the top 25, however. The former second-round draft pick of the Diamondbacks has a lifetime 3.13 ERA, and has never posted a full-season mark higher than this year’s 3.52. And yet, despite a career-high ERA, Shaw managed to post his highest-ever fWAR total for a single season in 2017 (1.6 fWAR). While his 0.65 WPA for the season doesn’t quite paint the same picture, it’s difficult to argue that Shaw has provided great value to the Tribe in a setup role.

Shaw just turned 30 years old this month. It seems likely he’ll command at least a three-year contract.

Free Agent Profile: J.D. Martinez

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Despite not accumulating enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, J.D. Martinez hit the third-most home runs of any player in baseball. Make no mistake, he’ll be paid for his power this winter.

Pros/Strengths

Since his breakout season with the Tigers, Martinez has been an incredible power asset. Over the past four seasons, the outfielder is 10th in MLB with 128 homers, despite having the second-fewest plate appearances of any player in the top 20 in that category. During that time, Martinez trails only Mike Trout in slugging percentage. He also ranks within the top five in wOBA and wRC+ during that stretch, with an even .300 batting average and .362 OBP, so it’s not as if he’s an all-or-nothing presence at the plate.

During the 2017 season, Martinez took his power to a new level. Across 489 plate appearances between the Tigers and the Diamondbacks, Martinez posted a whopping .690 slugging percentage, which would have led all of baseball by a full 59 points if he’d made enough trips to the plate to qualify for the slugging title. The power numbers he puts up are incredibly impressive and will motivate many teams to inquire on him.

It’s not just his power numbers that stick out, however. Those figures are just one by-product of Martinez’ true greatest strength: quality of contact. His whopping 49% hard contact rate led all of baseball last season, and only Aaron Judge had more barrels per plate appearance.  His 208-foot average batted ball distance ranked 10th among hitters with at least 250 batted ball events. His 90.8 MPH average exit velocity ranked 12th, while his 97.2 MPH average exit velocity on fly balls ranked 6th.

Cons/Weaknesses

Though Martinez’ power is absolutely elite, he comes with a slew of weaknesses that hurt his value and build in a frightening amount of risk. It all starts with his health; Martinez has missed significant time with injuries in each of the past two seasons. In fact, the outfielder has only qualified for the batting title once in his career; teams will certainly be somewhat skeptical about his ability to produce at his 2017 clip over a full season in 2018, let alone in future years as he ages.

One can’t completely ignore defense, either, and Martinez is a downright liability in the field. Fangraphs rated him the seventh-worst defensive player in baseball in 2017. His Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games was -14.8; that figure was the worst among all MLB outfielders. Defensive Runs Saved paints a slightly better picture, but his -5 DRS still ties him for 40th place out of 56 qualifying outfielders. If Martinez was even average defensively, he’d no doubt be one of the top ten most valuable players in baseball. As it stands, however, he’s outside the top 40 in WAR among hitters alone across a three-year sample size.

There’s also plenty of swing-and-miss in Martinez’ game, although it may not be a chief concern in today’s environment. His 26.2% strikeout rate was the 41st-highest among 216 MLB players with at least 400 plate appearances last year. Part of this stems from his 71.2% contact rate, which put him in the bottom eighth of baseball players in that category. It’s worth noting that Martinez improved his walk rate dramatically this year as well; his 10.8% walk rate put him in the 30th percentile. All told, high strikeout totals aren’t entirely uncommon for power hitters, but Martinez does have some of the poorest plate discipline among the elite power threats in the game. If we isolate the top 30 players in slugging percentage this past season, Martinez has the 6th-highest strikeout rate and 12th-lowest walk rate in that group.

The mediocre plate discipline is probably worth the trade-off for his avalanche of extra base hits, but it’s tough to know whether his swing will age well. Martinez and agent Scott Boras are reportedly seeking a contract above $200MM. While few in the industry think he’ll come close to that figure, the MLBTR team predicts he’ll earn something in the range of $150MM. If a win is worth roughly $9MM on the free agent market, one would think Martinez will need to provide somewhere close to 14 wins for his new team over the life of that contract, factoring in some inflation. Over the last century, only a handful of players have produced 14 WAR or more for their entire careers with a strikeout rate above 25% and a walk rate below 11%. Those players are Chris Davis, Ryan Howard, David Ross, Colby Rasmus and Melvin Upton Jr. None of them stands out as being particularly productive beyond his age 30 season. Of course, the game is trending in more of a strikeout-heavy direction these days, so perhaps that stat shouldn’t be observed with too much gravity.

Those readers interested in “clutch” hitters should know that Martinez hasn’t been good in high leverage situations. Since his breakout began at the start of the 2014 season, Martinez ranks dead last among 289 qualifying hitters with a -4.30 clutch rating via Fangraphs.

Background

With the number 611 overall pick in the 2009 draft (20th round), the Houston Astros selected Martinez out of Nova Southeastern University in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. He ascended quickly through the minor leagues, making his professional debut just two years later, performing as a roughly average major leaguer in half a season’s worth of at-bats. Things didn’t go well for Martinez across the next two seasons, however. He posted a .245/.295/.376 batting line from 2012-2013 and was ultimately released by Houston.

Although his career seemed all but over after being cut by a then-cellar-dwelling Astros team, the Tigers nabbed Martinez, who had spend the offseason overhauling his swing. Early into the 2014 season, it became clear that Detroit had picked up a completely different player than the sub-replacement level outfielder who had struggled with the Astros. Martinez went on to put together a .318/.358/.553 slash line en route to 4.0 WAR and a 154 wRC+ that year, and has produced fantastic offensive numbers ever since.

Market

As a right-handed power hitter, Martinez would be a welcome asset to the middle of any MLB team’s batting order. However, his price tag will put him firmly out of reach for the majority of teams in smaller markets. Furthermore, the length of the contract he’ll command might give pause to NL teams, who could be concerned that his already-poor defense will decline further with age. While that certainly doesn’t eliminate NL clubs, it does mean that AL clubs (who could play him at DH in the latter years of the contract) might be willing to offer a longer deal. As MLBTR has already noted in our Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions article, the Red Sox are a very good fit. The piece also mentions the Cardinals and Giants as suitors. I’d add the Yankees and Rangers to that list as well, though both would likely need to do some creative financial work to make it possible. Perhaps a few other surprise bidders could emerge.

Expected Contract

The $200MM+ contract Boras is seeking for Martinez isn’t realistic. MLBTR’s initial projection of $150MM over six years is more plausible. However, it’s become evident by now that teams are willing to be patient and wait out the free agent market. Going into last offseason, Yoenis Cespedes had a similar four-year WAR output, was just a year older, and had fewer health questions; he signed a four-year, $110MM contract. Based on that, it might be safer to predict a five-year deal for Martinez. I’m going to forecast exactly that, at a $135MM guarantee.

Giancarlo Stanton Rumors: Saturday

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Both the Cardinals and the Giants have recently been given permission to speak with NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton’s representatives. As we get deeper and deeper into the Stanton Saga, we’ll keep track of today’s rumors in this post.

  • Stanton was actually present with his lead representative, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman, at meetings with the Cardinals and Giants last week, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag. Both teams’ GMs attended those summits, adds Heyman, who suggests that Stanton’s presence shows he’s serious about joining either club. Indeed, neither the Cardinals nor Giants have been eliminated from the Stanton derby, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.

Earlier…

  • In a detailed piece, Heyman references a number of different anonymous sources in expressing skepticism that Stanton would approve a trade to St. Louis. Five different people close to Stanton apparently told Heyman that they believe he’d choose the Giants over the Cardinals if given a choice, and with a full no-trade clause on his side, Stanton has a big say in the matter. One of Heyman’s sources states that the West Coast would be the outfielder’s first choice, the East Coast would be his second choice, and the Midwest would be his last choice. Of course, as Heyman also notes, it’s worth mentioning that talks with St. Louis have progressed to a point at which their front office reps were invited to meet with Stanton’s camp; it seems unlikely that would happen if a trade to the Cardinals was a firm “no” from the reigning home run champ. According to another one of Heyman’s sources, the Marlins believe a trade agreement can be reached with the Giants. However, the Dodgers (who are reportedly Stanton’s first choice) are “not disinterested”. If that’s indeed the case, he could simply choose to wait out the trade process and hope L.A. and Miami can work out an agreement.
  • Buster Olney of ESPN reports via Twitter that the Marlins are more focused on moving as much of Stanton’s salary as possible than they are on maximizing their prospect return. As Derrick Gould of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and Tim Healey of the Sun Sentinel both point out in their own tweets, this news is considerably in the Giants’ favor. The Cardinals have far more to offer in terms of prospects, but they don’t have a history of doling out enormous contracts to free agents. The Giants, on the other hand, are payroll juggernauts, and although they have nearly $190MM in payroll guarantees for 2018 already, that number could drop considerably next year with the potential departures of Hunter Pence and Denard Span. This doesn’t mean a deal with the Giants is imminent, but it does seem to make them a better trade partner for the Marlins.
  • Giants manager Bruce Bochy was apparently not present at the meeting between the San Francisco brass and Stanton’s representatives on Thursday, according to a tweet from Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. It’s a fairly minor detail, but it does seem to decrease the likelihood that a trade is truly on the brink of taking place.

NL Central Notes: Pirates Staff, Rivero, Iglesias

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The Pirates have made a host of changes to their scouting and front office staff, Bill Brink of the Pittsburg Post-Gazette reports. Steve Williams, a major league scout since 1988, will be their new director of pro scouting. Junior Vizcaino, formerly of the Red Sox, will replace the recently-discharged Rene Gayo as Pittsburgh’s director of Latin America scouting. Assistant GM Greg Smith will now work under the title “Special Assistant to the GM”, though it’s not quite clear what the change in his role will actually be. Pitching coordinator Justin Meccage will now join the coaching staff as assistant pitching coach. In addition, pro scout Sean McNally has been named Special Assistant to the GM, John Birbeck and Matt Taylor have been made scouting assistants, and Joe Douglas and Justin Newman have been named quantitative analysts. While these moves seem to be mostly routine shuffling, it’s worth noting that very few first-round picks of the Pirates have lived up to their billing over the past 12 years.

More details from around the NL Central…

  • In other Pirates news, closer Felipe Rivero has dropped agent Scott Boras. He’ll now be represented by Magnus Sports, according to Elizabeth Bloom of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Rivero enjoyed a breakout season in 2017, posting a 1.67 ERA and 3.50 WPA across 75 1/3 innings thanks in part to a 10.51 K/9 and a 52.9% ground ball rate. Although he enjoyed a bit of BABIP and home run luck, his 3.03 xFIP is still a solid mark. The left-hander compiled 21 saves after taking over as Pittsburgh’s closer halfway through the season, and is arbitration-eligible for the first time next offseason. He should be in line for a significant raise if he can perform close to his 2017 numbers. Bloom notes that Magnus Sports also represents some other closers, including Aroldis Chapman of the Yankees and Raisel Iglesias of the Reds.
  • Speaking of Iglesias, the right-hander has officially decided not to opt into arbitration, according to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. It seemed highly unlikely that Iglesias would choose to do so this season, considering his contract will pay him $4.5MM next season, while MLBTR’s arbitration model projected him for a $2.8MM salary. Nevertheless, Iglesias’ statement ends any speculation that he would opt into the process during this offseason (though he’ll have another opportunity next year). For the 2017 season, Iglesias finished 15th among relievers in total innings pitched (75), 22nd in ERA (2.49), 13th in saves (28), and tied for 13th in strikeouts (92).

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