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Minor MLB Transactions: 12/2/17

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We’ll keep track of some recent minor moves here…

  • The Indians have agreed to a new minor league contract with utility player Michael Martinez, Robert Murray of FanRag Sports tweets. Martinez, now 35, has played at or below replacement level for every single season of his seven-year major league career, combining for a total of 2.4 wins below replacement level. Originally a rule 5 draft pick of the Phillies, he is perhaps most famous for being the final out for the Indians in the 2016 World Series. Martinez has accumulated 621 plate appearances for his career and has put up a .194/.243/.261 slash line.
  • The Royals have re-signed Terrance Gore to a minor league contract after non-tendering the outfielder yesterday, according to a tweet from Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star. The 26-year-old’s speed is biggest asset; he’s accrued more stolen bases (21) than plate appearances (14) over the course of his major league career. He was utilized exclusively as a pinch-runner during the Royals’ 2014 and 2015 playoff runs, swiping four key bags in the postseason during those years without ever picking up a bat. Gore has yet to pick up his first major league hit, but he’s still managed 0.2 WAR for his career due to his baserunning skills.
  • Robert Murray of FanRag Sports reports that the Rockies have signed right-hander Chris Jensen to a minor-league pact (Twitter link). Jensen, 27, was originally Colorado’s sixth-round pick in the 2011 draft. He spent three seasons in the lower minors with the Rockies before being shipped to the A’s along with Drew Pomeranz in exchange for Brett Anderson. Jensen made seven starts and 23 relief appearances for the A’s Triple-A affiliate in 2017, and accrued an equal number of strikeouts and earned runs (56) across 84 2/3 innings pitched.

AL Central Notes: Twins, Tigers, Abreu

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Darren Wolfson of KSTP tweeted today that while the Twins remain “engaged and interested” in regards to a few big name free agent pitchers, there’s no indication yet that they are “in heavily” on anyone. While that can change quickly, Wolfson acknowledges that the trade market is also a very real possibility. It would seem that Minnesota is in a position to take their time in exploring all possible options. It makes plenty of sense to wonder whether the Twins might wait to see where Shohei Ohtani signs before making any significant pitching acquisitions. The market for pitching is likely to hold fast until the two-way Japanese sensation picks a landing spot, and on the off-chance that he chooses Minnesota, they might be able to focus their resources on other areas of the roster. A particularly weak bullpen comes to mind as another area the Twins will need to improve upon if they expect to contend again in 2018.

More notes out of the American League’s central division…

  • While the Tigers probably won’t be serious pursuers of big name free agents this offseason, Katie Strang of The Athletic provides a short list of potential bargain buys for a depleted Detroit rotation. Strang notes that Michael Fulmer is coming off elbow surgery, while veteran Jordan Zimmerman has spent the offseason overhauling his delivery in hopes to return to form after a disastrous 2017 season. Beyond them, Matthew Boyd and Daniel Norris aren’t sure bets to hold down rotation spots. Chris Tillman, Miles Mikolas and Clay Buchholz are some interesting names Strang suggests as options for the Tigers to explore. While none are particularly exciting, they all have some upside as comeback players and could eat innings for Detroit in 2018.
  • Although the Red Sox are players for White Sox slugger Jose Abreu, Scott Lauber of ESPN notes that the south siders are reportedly asking for “an arm and a leg” in exchange for their first baseman. Boston might not have the prospects necessary to swing a deal; the White Sox were able to land huge hauls for Chris Sale and Adam Eaton last offseason and might be holding out for a similar return for Abreu. The Cuban native has put up a .301/.359/.524 batting line for his four-year major league career. His slugging percentage and 124 home runs both rank 13th in the majors during that span, while his 410 RBI rank 5th. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently detailed the trade market for Abreu.

Quick Hits: MiLB Market, Tigers, Non-Tenders, Ohtani

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It’s no secret that the market for MLB players has been shockingly cold to date. Ironically, the fact that there are so few stories has become one of the biggest stories of the offseason. But what has perhaps gone somewhat overlooked is the slow crawl of the minor league free agent market. In a piece for Baseball America, Matt Eddy details the frigid minor league market to date. He notes that nearly five times as many minor league free agents had signed contracts by this point last offseason, and quotes an agent describing the “trickle-down” effect of the slow major league free agent market. “Teams are (emphasizing) ‘delay, delay, delay,’ hoping for players to get desperate and start signing lower deals.” says one agent via Eddy. This tactic to drive down the asking prices of MLB free agents could end up reducing the eventual contracts of MiLB free agents as well. While the worst-case scenario for major leaguers is a smaller guarantee, the fear for minor league free agents is that they might not end up with a team at all if they wait too long to sign.

More from around baseball…

  • Emily Waldon of The Athletic points out that Detroit has just one available spot on the 40-man roster, along with the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft. It will certainly be a valuable pick, and with the rebuilding Tigers not expected to contend this year, they should easily be able to keep their selection on their big league roster throughout the 2018 season. Waldon also provides some notes on former Tigers who are now with new organizations, as well as a few interesting minor leaguers who are making impressions in winter ball. It’s great material for Detroit fans who are looking for some storylines to follow during a rebuilding season.
  • With the non-tender deadline yesterday, many new names were added to the free agent pool. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com lists six players he thinks are likely to draw significant interest from major league clubs. Feinsand provides some helpful details on those players, including the likes of Matt Adams and Drew Smyly. It’s helpful for anyone looking speculate on how the non-tender free agents could potentially impact the free agent market.
  • With the posting of Shohei Ohtani recently becoming official, ESPN’s Keith Law reveals some secondhand info he’s compiled from scouts who have seen the Japanese phenom play. Although Ohtani is able to reach the 100 MPH threshold, most scouts say the velocity of his fastball plays down a bit due to lack of movement. Many scouts also express skepticism about his ability to hit in the major leagues, citing concerns over his capabilities to both shorten his swing enough to cover the inner third of the plate and develop a “real” two-strike approach. There also seems to be some concerns about his durability and how he’ll deal with the fatigue of both pitching and hitting throughout a full season.

Reactions to the Yankees’ Hiring of Aaron Boone

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Last night, we learned that Aaron Boone will be the next manager for the Yankees, filling the shoes of ten-year veteran Joe Girardi. Because the former Yankee has never managed or coached at the professional level, his candidacy alone came as a surprise. However, GM Brian Cashman is obviously all-in on him, and seems confident in the hiring.

Here are some interesting thoughts on the Boone hiring from the media…

  • Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic begins a piece by saying he will “not condemn” the hiring of Aaron Boone. Soon after, however, he clearly states that he cannot remember a hire with more risk in his 30-plus years of covering baseball. Rosenthal notes hires of Mike Matheny by the Cardinals and Robin Ventura by the White Sox as recent risks trending in this direction, due to those managers having very little coaching experience, but makes sure to add that neither of those hires were this extreme. Because Boone has a warm and friendly personality and is well-liked around the league, the Yankees seem to be shrugging off the concerns under the simple notion that he’s a great guy. As Rosenthal notes, many clubs are beginning to view managing as a “paint-by-numbers” exercise in which the manager is supplied with data by the front office. This might mean that the most important skill set for a managerial candidate is the ability to build a positive clubhouse culture, which Boone would certainly seem to possess. Still, it will be interesting to see how the rookie skipper reacts in his first exposure to a number of tough situations.
  • Andrew Marchand of ESPN tweeted a quote from Yankees principal owner Hal Steinbrenner that dates back to the GM meetings. “My concern about a candidate like that would just be the lack of managerial experience, but even more important, coaching experience of any kind. That would be a concern of mine. It might be less of a concern for Cash.” It’s an interesting footnote, and could potentially imply that this decision puts some weight on Cashman’s shoulders. In a piece for ESPN, Marchand paints Boone as a tremendous risk with a jewel of an opportunity; he certainly has an incredible group of young players to work with, including Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez and Luis Severino. Like Rosenthal, Marchand sees Boone as having many of the requisite traits for success, but wonders how the he’ll respond to the grind of the job, particularly with such high expectations placed upon him.
  • In his own tweet, Bryan Hoch notes that Boone will be the first Yankees manager with no managerial or coaching experience since Bill Dickey all the way back in 1946. Dickey was ultimately inducted into the Hall of Fame, so there’s some precedent for managerial success without prior coaching experience.
  • Taking a more extreme stance, Joel Sherman of the New York Post describes Cashman’s hiring of Boone as “the gamble of his life”. However, Sherman makes sure to note the upside of that risk, citing Boone’s eight-year career at ESPN as a huge plus for the modern manager. Because of his career as an analyst, Boone possesses a wide knowledge of all 30 MLB teams, a firm grasp on how teams use analytics nowadays, and excellent media relations skills. All of these assets are valuable tools that could set him up for success, and Sherman sees the latter two as tools that Girardi lacked.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

Following a World Series loss to the Houston Astros, the Dodgers will enter the 2018 season with the majority of their core intact. The NL West division competition won’t figure to get any easier, however, and the organization’s payroll obligations already exceed the luxury tax threshold, which will make it more complicated to patch holes through free agency. The good news is that they enter the winter with wealth in another area … their deep farm system.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Other Financial Obligations

Free Agents

[Los Angeles Dodgers Depth Chart | Los Angeles Dodgers Payroll Outlook]

At the kickoff of last year’s offseason, reports surfaced that the Dodgers were under pressure from MLB to cut payroll, though CEO Stan Kasten insisted that it wasn’t a mandate. While there hasn’t been word of any similar pressure this winter, Los Angeles already has over $207MM in guaranteed commitments for 2018 before so much as even inquiring on any free agents. Forty million of those dollars are owed to a combination of Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir and a group of players who are no longer on the roster. While it’s probably not safe to expect the Dodgers to be stingy, it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see them shy away from long-term, high-risk contracts, especially with some notable extension candidates making up the core of the MLB roster and another wave of talent budding in the upper minors.

That minor-league system includes six players in MLB Pipeline’s top 100, four of whom are either at the Double-A or Triple-A level. Their top two prospects, Walker Buehler and Alex Verdugo, could help at the major league level early in 2018. With that kind of farm system, it’s possible we could see the Dodgers swing a major trade. I already noted that they’d be an ideal fit in a hypothetical Marcell Ozuna trade with the Miami Marlins, and indeed it seems like they’re in play for Giancarlo Stanton to an extent as well (though certainly his contract is larger than anything it would take to sign any of this year’s free agents). On paper, it seems like Verdugo in particular would make the most sense as a trade chip, depending upon how the club views a deep set of outfielders, though it remains to be seen whether the Dodgers have any real interest in dealing him.

Speaking of Stanton, the Dodgers appear to be one of the best fits for his services. Not only are they one of the few teams with both the prospects and financial muscle to lure the NL MVP from Miami, but they may have an added advantage considering Stanton is an L.A. native. In fact, recent reports indicate that he’d approve a trade to the Dodgers; if he truly wants to land there, and the team is at least willing to offer enough to force the Marlins’ hand, then this could be a match. But it’s not presently clear just how much interest the Dodgers have and whether Stanton would push hard to go to one specific team.

The possibility of adding a big bat ties into a complicated picture on the position-player side. It seems probable that Gonzalez will take at least some of the time at first base to open the season, so as things stand currently, the Dodgers would enter 2018 with some combination of Chris Taylor, Cody Bellinger, Yasiel Puig and Joc Pederson in the outfield, with Enrique Hernandez likely to fill a backup role and Andrew Toles as a sort of dark horse for playing time. Of course, Gonzalez faded badly in an injury-riddled 2017 season, ending with a shockingly poor .242/.287/.355 slash line in just 252 plate appearances last year. If he can’t rebound to some semblance of his former self, the Dodgers might ultimately opt to cut him loose (and eat his enormous salary) in order to move Bellinger back to first. This concern could lead to L.A. signing a platoon partner for Gonzalez at first, or adding a cheap right-handed outfield option to their roster. From my point of view, however, it doesn’t make much sense for the Dodgers to mess around with the middle- and lower-tier options at those positions. Their roster is already crowded with many players of that type, so it might not be worth sacrificing a roster spot to add another part-time bat to the mix.

Logan Forsythe is currently listed at the top of the second base depth chart for the Dodgers, and it would be perfectly reasonable to open the season with him at the keystone. Justin Turner and Corey Seager are obvious locks for their positions, so it’s hard to imagine the Dodgers making any real changes to their infield. They could, however, explore some veteran backup options. It wouldn’t be a complete shock to see them re-sign Chase Utley. The Dodgers could probably use a lefty-hitting infielder, and the 39-year-old veteran fits the bill. Other options to hit from the left side include switch-hitters Erick Aybar and Jose Reyes, but the trade market could well hold more promising possibilities.

The back end of Dodgers’ rotation for the past couple of seasons has been a patchwork quilt of oft-injured hurlers who provide solid value when healthy. But the front end is absolutely dynamite; legend Clayton Kershaw will once again be the team’s opening day starter, while Rich Hill and Alex Wood are locks for the number two and three spots. Beyond that, things get a little murkier. Kenta Maeda was a lights-out relief pitcher in the playoffs, and although he’ll probably open the season in the Dodgers’ rotation, they could also opt to use him once again as a relief ace. Buehler will contribute in some capacity this season, but I’d put my money on the Dodgers sending him to Triple-A to open 2018. Julio Urias will probably return from injury at some point as well, though that will be much later in the year and he’ll be nursed back to health with quite a lot of caution. Beyond that, whether they sign a free agent pitcher or employ a wait-and-see approach with their brittle rotation depth seems like a coin flip.

If they do sign a free agent pitcher, a reunion with Yu Darvish seems plausible. Despite an implosion during the playoffs, Darvish was solid for the Dodgers overall and comes with an extensive track record of success. Beyond him, they could be in on Jake Arrieta, or attempt to trade for Chris Archer of the Rays or Michael Fulmer of the Tigers. With the kind of rotation depth the Dodgers have, it makes more sense for them to look at large upgrades rather than risky players like Andrew Cashner or Tyler Chatwood.

The Dodgers bullpen is largely in good shape. Tony Watson and Brandon Morrow are set to depart as free agents, but the dominant Kenley Jansen remains under contract as the team’s closer. Luis Avilan, Tony Cingrani, Pedro Baez, Ross Stripling and Josh Fields will all be back as well. Their rotation depth could bleed over into their bullpen, meaning one of Brandon McCarthy, Hyun-jin Ryu or Maeda could pitch in relief to start the season. With all this in mind, it seems as though the bullpen doesn’t need much help. It wouldn’t make much sense, then, to spend big money on Greg Holland or Wade Davis, but they’ll probably explore options from the next tier. A reunion with Morrow would make plenty of sense, and beyond him there are names like Bryan Shaw, Juan Nicasio and Mike Minor that could hold appeal.

What stands out most about the Dodgers organization is its depth of resources and the multitude of ways in which it could combine them. The team could acquire a big name trade target by moving assets at the minor league level or in the majors (Pederson or Yasmani Grandal come to mind), or it could throw a wad of cash at a free agent. The Dodgers will probably make a push for Shohei Ohtani, and landing the two-way star would mean yet more possibilities for corresponding roster tweaks. At the end of the day, it seems likely that they’ll make at least one significant acquisition, and probably more than that. Under Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi, the Dodgers have sought to build without simply relying on bringing in expensive veterans from outside the organization on long-term commitments. But after coming up just shy in the 2017 World Series following five-straight NL West titles, the desire to finally win it all could provide significant motivation to cash in financial and prospect capital and put a super team on the field.

What route Dodgers end up taking this winter is anybody’s guess. But we can safely presume that they won’t have a quiet offseason. They have loads of options and they’ll be exploring all of them. I expect the name “Dodgers” to pop up often in trade and free agent rumors, and I expect them to be at the epicenter when the dominoes start to fall.

Looking For A Match In An Avisail Garcia Trade

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Earlier this week, Mark Polishuk examined the potential trade market for Jose Abreu. Another White Sox player who’s likely to receive calls this offseason is right fielder Avisail Garcia, who is coming off a 4.2 fWAR season and is signed through 2019.

Prior to 2017, Fangraphs rated Garcia below replacement level for his career. But last offseason, the Venezuelan native shed some weight and got off to a hot start in April. He continued to crush the ball throughout the first half en route to his first All-Star selection. Although Garcia had a rough July, he finished the season strong, resulting in a .330/.380/.506 batting line. That performance was good for a 137 wRC+, which tied Justin Upton for the 22nd-best mark in all of baseball.

During a season’s end press conference, White Sox GM Rick Hahn admitted that the team is unlikely to win any time soon. “Even under the most optimistic projections of our ability to contend, certainly ’18 and ’19 don’t include the bulk of the time when we anticipate having a window open to us,” Hahn told reporters. This would make Garcia a prime candidate to move for young talent, especially coming off a career year.

The process of putting an approximate trade value on Garcia, however, is incredibly complicated. Unlike teammate Abreu, the outfielder doesn’t have a long track record of success, and it’s not certain he’ll be able to muster something resembling his 2017 production in future years.

One could point to a change in batted ball profile as an indicator that this past year’s success is sustainable. Garcia improved his hard contact and medium contact rates by small margins over his 2016 figures, in addition to increasing his fly ball rate by four percentage points. The most dramatic change was probably his pull rate; Garcia pulled the ball 25% more often this past season than he did the year before. All told, he ranked 53rd in baseball in hard contact rate (35.3%), and 36th in average exit velocity (90.1 MPH).

Of course, those improvements don’t entirely justify an 83-point jump in batting average on balls in play. His .392 BABIP led all of baseball by a large margin, topping second-place Charlie Blackmon’s figure by a 21-point margin. That number is likely to regress significantly, which makes it tough to buy Garcia a legitimate .300 hitter.

That being said, Garcia’s contract will certainly have some surplus value in the eyes of rival teams. He may not have the reputation necessary to bring back a truly elite minor-leaguer, but it’s not hard to imagine some team forking over a top-100 or even top-50 prospect in hopes that Garcia can be a 3-win player for them for each of the next two seasons. When looking at potential suitors, it’s probably best to examine those teams for whom he would provide an obvious upgrade even if he were to regress a bit.

The Blue Jays have the resources to swing a deal and a need in the outfield, but might prefer to find another left-handed option. It also might not make much sense to trade for Garcia when Anthony Alford will probably debut at some point in 2017.

The Rays could use a righty-hitting outfielder, and they have a number of prospects in a more appropriate range to headline a deal for Garcia. Making such a trade would be a more realistic alternative to spending money on a right-handed outfielder in free agency, as Tampa Bay obviously isn’t known for their ability to spend.

Although their outfield is fairly crowded already, the Indians saw right-handed-hitting Austin Jackson reach free agency this offseason. With questions surrounding the health of Brandon Guyer, the Tribe would probably be well-served to add another righty option to their outfield group. They won’t be inclined to give up Francisco Mejia or Triston McKenzie, but they do have a number of intriguing upside youngsters; they might be able to lure Garcia away from their division rivals with some combination of those players.

The Rockies seem like a really good match on paper; they’re in need of an outfielder who bats from the right side, and have prospects they could afford to give up if they believed in the new version of Garcia.

The Diamondbacks seem like the best match to me. They have a J.D. Martinez-sized hole to fill in the outfield, and they’re ready to push for contention again in 2018. With Pavin Smith and Jon Duplantier at least a full year away from contributing, Arizona could opt to trade one of them as a cheaper alternative to the nine-figure contract Martinez would require in order to return. Because he’s such a defensive liability, Martinez actually finished 2017 with a lower fWAR than Garcia, who played roughly average defense for Chicago. That’s obviously not to say that Garcia should be the more coveted player, but he’s definitely got his pros as an alternative.

Other options that make some level of sense include the Giants and Rangers. But the conundrum here is that it’s hard to predict exactly how teams will value Garcia, including the White Sox themselves. It’s not often that career sub-replacement outfielders suddenly become All-Stars, so it will be interesting to track rumors surrounding Avi this offseason and see what develops.

Quick Hits: Arrieta, Hosmer, Mets

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Cubs free agent Jake Arrieta figures to offer more “feast-or-famine probability” than any other free agent on the market, Daniel Kramer of MLB.com posits. Arrieta has exhibited a number of troubling trends since his dominant Cy Young campaign back in 2015. Kramer points out that the right-hander’s rate of hard contact allowed was once among the the lowest in baseball, but has since fallen to the middle of the pack. Arrieta has also lost 3 MPH on his fastball from 2015 to 2017; pitchers in their thirties typically don’t regain that velocity. Kramer digs even deeper, looking at Arrieta’s “topped ball” rate (balls hit directly into the ground), noting that his rate in this category has also dropped. These factors in tandem create a confusing and concerning picture when looking at the value Arrieta could provide over the next couple of years. It’s not all bad; Kramer also notes that the former Cy Young winner hasn’t lost his ability to put batters away on two-strike pitches, and he’s still got an excellent pitch repertoire to go along with a delivery that provides deception. Teams exploring a deal with Arrieta will face an interesting dilemma in trying to project his future performance.

Other items from around MLB…

  • Dave Cameron of Fangraphs has released his top five free agent bargains, as well as his top five free agent landmines. Royals free agent Eric Hosmer tops the list of players Cameron would avoid at the prices they’re likely to command. He points out that Hosmer’s 2017 was partially driven by his .351 BABIP, which the first baseman is unlikely to repeat, and questions his defensive abilities as well. Interestingly, Cameron points out that Hosmer’s 120 wRC+ over the past three seasons is just two points ahead of Carlos Santana’s mark across that same span, and yet Hosmer is expected to more than double Santana’s earnings in free agency this winter. None of this is to say that Hosmer isn’t a great asset, but many in the industry think he’ll be paid like a potential franchise superstar, and his track record doesn’t necessarily provide a strong case for that level of commitment. Greg Holland, Lance Lynn, Eduardo Nunez and Andrew Cashner round out Cameron’s top five free agent landmines, while Carlos Santana, Lorenzo Cain, Tommy Hunter, Jarrod Dyson and Doug Fister comprise Cameron’s top five bargains. The pieces are full of great analysis and will give readers another interesting set of storylines to track this offseason.
  • Mike Puma of the New York Post wonders whether the Mets would be best served to bring back second baseman Neil Walker, whom the club traded to the Brewers this past August. Though he spent a significant amount of time on the DL for the second straight season, his 2017 home run total (14) homers and OBP (.409) would be a welcome asset to a Mets club with a number of issues to tackle before opening day 2018. Puma also notes that the Mets are exploring some trade options at second base as well. Interestingly, he lists Jason Kipnis as a name he believes to be available, along with more obvious trade candidates in Ian Kinsler and Dee Gordon.

Tigers, Blaine Hardy Avoid Arbitration

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The Tigers have announced that they’ve agreed to terms on a one-year contract with left-handed reliever Blaine Hardy in order to avoid arbitration.  Hardy will earn around $750K in the deal, according to Tony Paul of the Detroit News (Twitter link), which is slightly below the $800K that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Hardy would earn in the southpaw’s first year of arbitration eligibility.

Hardy has split time between Detroit and Triple-A Toledo during the past two seasons, performing just below replacement level in 2017. His best season in the majors came back in 2015, when he spent the entire year in the big leagues and posted a 3.08 ERA and 2.89 FIP across 70 appearances. The southpaw throws his 90 MPH fastball and his changeup most of the time, occasionally mixing in a curveball and a slider. Although his 5.94 ERA in 2017 isn’t exciting, he’s shown better results in previous years and is used against both left-handed and right-handed hitters.

The team also officially announced the signings of four players to minor-league deals, all with invites to spring training. Those players are right-handers Kevin Comer and Mark Montgomery, infielder Niko Goodrum and outfielder Chad Huffman.

Comer, 25, has spent most of his career in the Astros organization, reaching the Triple-A level for the first time in 2017. The righty reliever has shown a propensity for notching K’s; he struck out 10.46 batters per nine innings for the Fresno Grizzlies this past season. He had trouble limiting walks (3.96 BB/9), but his strikeout upside could help him force his way into a desperate Tigers bullpen; Detroit’s relievers were the only relief group in the majors to post a combine for below-replacement level production in 2017.

Montgomery has also never played in the big leagues, but showed great command at the Triple-A level within the Cardinals organization this past year. The former 11th round pick of the Yankees notched nearly five strikeouts for every walk he issued, while posting a 2.43 ERA across 66 2/3 innings. Interestingly, he only made 46 appearances, implying that he was being utilized as a multi-inning reliever a good portion of the time.

The 25-year-old Goodrum has never known any organization other than the Twins, who drafted him in the second round back in 2010. The 6’3″ switch-hitter made his major league debut in September, compiling 18 plate appearances and striking out in ten of them. He did manage to hit 13 homers and steal 11 bases at Triple-A Rochester, however, and is seemingly capable of providing good defense at second base.

Though Huffman debuted in the major leagues in 2010, he only played in 9 games with the Yankees and didn’t make it back to the MLB level until this past season. The righty-hitting outfielder accrued 15 plate appearances with the Cardinals in September, and reached base in five of them. Huffman will return to a Tigers organization for whose Triple-A affiliate he posted a .286/.387/.505 batting line in 511 plate appearances back in 2016.

Poll: Which Free Agent Will Sign The Largest Contract?

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The hot stove season has started off lukewarm, and we might not see a true rush of activity until the rumors surrounding NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton and Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani finally lead to resolutions of some kind. But when the dominoes start falling, we’re highly likely to see a few free agents sign nine-figure deals.

MLBTR released our annual Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions article early this month, and right-hander Yu Darvish sits atop the list with a predicted $160MM guarantee. Despite a career-low strikeout rate (and a well-documented implosion in the playoffs), Darvish remains an elite arm with a great track record of success, including an average of 3.80 fWAR across his five full MLB seasons. Though he hasn’t been quite the same since returning from Tommy John surgery last year, the Dodgers free agent starter still managed double-digit strikeouts per nine innings this past season while allowing only 2.80 walks per nine. In case there was any doubt about his durability following a major surgery, Darvish threw 186 2/3 innings in 2017, and added several more during L.A.’s playoff run. Of course, his famously horrific World Series performance leaves a stain on an otherwise solid campaign. That, along with a steady decline in his full-season ERA and xFIP across the past four campaigns, could potentially leave some of his suitors uneasy about signing him to a lengthy contract.

Even though J.D. Martinez didn’t qualify for the batting title in 2017, he still finished 44th in MLB with 3.8 fWAR. His .690 slugging percentage was the highest in baseball among players with at least 300 plate appearances, and a full 59 points higher than second-place Stanton. Since joining the Tigers in 2014, Martinez has mashed 128 homers, good for 10th in all of baseball across the past four years. He also ranks in the top ten in slugging percentage (2) and wRC+ (5) during that span. Agent Scott Boras is reportedly seeking a $210MM guarantee for Martinez, dubbing him “King Kong” and referencing his power and batting average numbers. Of course, Martinez comes with plenty of negatives as well. He’s only topped 500 plate appearances twice in his career. He’s also a defensive liability; Martinez has posted absolutely deplorable UZR, DRS and Inside Edge Fielding numbers over the past two years.

Eric Hosmer is the youngest of this group, having just turned 28 in October. He’s never logged fewer than 547 plate appearances in a full season, either. His relative youth and durability means he’s almost certain to get the longest contract, though that doesn’t mean the largest total guarantee. Interestingly, agent Scott Boras is trying to work his intangibles, such as clubhouse presence and media skills, into teams’ valuations of Hosmer. In 2017, Hosmer posted a career-high 4.1 fWAR and tied last year’s personal best with 25 homers. That he’s entering the free agent market following the best season of his career bodes well for him. However, his value could get dragged down by the fact that the free agent first base crop is particularly deep this year. If other first basemen sign quickly, Hosmer could lose suitors (and leverage) in a hurry, which could drive down his price.

What do you think? (Poll link for app users)

What We Know About The Giancarlo Stanton Situation

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As of Black Friday, the 2017 offseason has been astonishingly quiet. The trade and free agent market seems as though it’s being held up in large part by the situation surrounding NL MVP Giancarlo Stanton. Once that massive domino falls, it’s possible we’ll see a flurry of free agent activity follow. In the meantime, however, Stanton rumors are a heavy focus of the baseball media cycle, and as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd pointed out in an in-depth piece earlier this month, his market is wide and complex. As we approach the weekend, here’s an overview of what we know about the Marlins’ attempt to deal their All-Star outfielder.

He’s the best player available on the market- This may be redundant considering I already mentioned his brand new MVP award, but the subject is well worth its own spotlight. His .281/.376/.631 batting line is other worldly, and his 59 homers paced all of baseball in 2017. While his 6.9 fWAR only tied for fifth among all players in the majors, the rest of the top seven (Aaron Judge, Jose Altuve, Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Anthony Rendon and Mike Trout) won’t be available for teams to acquire in a trade. The top three free agents (Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer) aren’t anywhere near as valuable in terms of expected WAR output as Stanton.

Teams perceive his remaining contract as close to market value- According to these three tweets from Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, multiple teams told the Marlins that the remaining 10 years and $295MM left on Stanton’s contract are a pretty good estimate of what he’d earn on the open market, were he a free agent this offseason.

He has a lot of power over his own fate- Not only does Stanton have a full no-trade clause in his contract, but he also has the ability to opt out after the 2020 season, at which point he’d leave 7 years and $218MM on the table in search of a new deal. The opt-out makes trading him even more complicated, as it caps the contract value upside for his would-be new team. Meanwhile, the full no-trade protection gives him enormous leverage in the process. Many teams would love to add Stanton to their lineup, and the Marlins are looking to shed payroll. Ultimately, this means the Fish may not end up being able to accept the best offer, and could have to simply settle for the proposal from the city Stanton wishes to play for most.

The Marlins’ leverage over him is nonzero- While Stanton is a coveted asset and enjoys no-trade protection, he’s made it well-known that he isn’t interested in being around for a rebuild. The slugger’s desire to leave Miami could result in him approving a trade he’s not thrilled about just to play for a contender. On the other hand, it could also result in a tense game of chicken between Stanton and the Marlins to see who will bend first. Although the Marlins have a firm mission to shed payroll, they can do so in other ways; they don’t actually have to trade Stanton at all. And as much as Stanton wants to be traded, he might be willing to hold out for a team of his choice and risk staying put. The case is fascinating.

Some evaluators believe the Marlins’ asking price is unrealistic- While Miami’s asking price isn’t entirely clear, it seems as though they’re looking for a team to pay all (or nearly all) of his salary while including prospects. This has led some to suggest that the Fish need a “reality check” in terms of their asking price. If the contract is indeed roughly market value, then it’s difficult to imagine that a team will give up good prospects for the privilege to pay Stanton his full dollar value over the course of the deal.

He prefers to play near a coast- While this doesn’t seem to be a firm deal breaker, it complicates matters for teams like the Cardinals and Phillies, who have the payroll space and prospect depth to swing a trade for the prolific slugger.

The Cardinals and Giants have made formal offers- The Giants were the first to officially submit a trade proposal, with the Cardinals following suit later that same week. This doesn’t mean the trade discussions are finished; those trades could still be tweaked or even scrapped entirely in favor of starting from scratch. But the fact that there are at least two offers on the table gives the Marlins some options to weigh for the time being. It’s not known what those offers are, however, though we do know that the Cardinals included Sandy Alcantara in their proposal. It’s equally uncertain whether Miami even takes those offers seriously.

As many as eight teams are engaged in talks for him- While only six of those eight teams are thought to be serious pursuers, the fact that so many teams are showing strong interest bodes well for Miami and their power in negotiations. In addition to the Cardinals and Giants mentioned above, we know that the Dodgers, Phillies and Red Sox have had some level of dialogue with the Marlins. The Yankees, too, have reportedly done their due diligence, though it doesn’t sound as if they’re actively pursuing Stanton.

 

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