Since Josh Naylor didn’t sign an extension with the Guardians during his pre-arbitration years, it has always seemed like there has been a ticking clock on the first baseman’s time in the Cleve.  With the exceptions of Jose Ramirez and Carlos Carrasco agreeing to below-market extensions to stay with the franchise, a look at Cleveland’s extension history over the last 17 years (hat tip to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker) reveals the simple truth that the Guards virtually never sign players to long-term extensions for significant salaries once they get within a year or two of free agency.

Naylor is now entering his final season of team control, and is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to land a $12MM salary in his last trip through the arbitration process.  It’s a nice raise from his $6.5MM salary in 2024, and since arbitration calculations tend to heavily weigh traditional counting stats, Naylor will handsomely cash in from posting a career-best 31 homers and 108 RBI.

A peek at the more advanced metrics is a little more troublesome, as Naylor’s 118 wRC+ (from a .243/.320/.456 slash line in 633 plate appearances) was solid but not quite elite, and a drop from his 127 wRC+ in 2023.  That prior season saw Naylor enjoy a .326 BABIP, while the batted-ball luck turned on him this season to the tune of a .246 BABIP.  Most of Naylor’s production also came in the first three months of the season, and it could be that the career-high 633 PA led to Naylor wearing down as the year progressed.  On the plus side, Naylor remained above-average in most Statcast categories, and he was a far more patient hitter than in years past, with a 9.2% walk rate that is also a career best.

All this being said, even “only” a repeat of his 2024 season should put Naylor (who turns 28 in June) in line for a lucrative free agent deal when he reaches the open market next winter.  It also very likely puts him out of Cleveland’s price range over the long term, and quite possibly even for the 2025 campaign.

The Guards had some increased attendance at Progressive Field during the regular season and they got a nice revenue boost from hosting six playoff games, yet the organization will also experience some level of dropoff in their broadcasting dollars.  MLB itself will now be handling the local distribution of Guardians games after the Diamond Sports Group backed out of its original contracts with the Guards and 10 other teams, which means that the Guardians will receive some but not all of the broadcast revenue they would’ve received under the terms of their previous deal.

In a world where the Guardians were still getting all of that TV money, odds are Naylor would still have been traded, just because that’s how the Guards have traditionally done business.  And of course, it isn’t an absolute guarantee that the first baseman will be on the move this offseason.  President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti might not find an offer to his liking, or ownership could approve a slightly higher payroll to make another run with what looks like a winning core.  Naylor could then be shopped at the deadline if the Guardians aren’t in contention, or kept through his last remaining season of team control and then very likely let go in free agency.  That latter scenario would at least put Cleveland in position to land a draft pick as compensation if Naylor rejected a qualifying offer and signed elsewhere.

Selling high on Naylor this winter might land more than just a draft pick, however.  Naylor’s name has already surfaced in past trade rumors, as the Cubs, Mariners, and Pirates all reportedly had talks with the Guardians about Naylor last winter.  Chicago’s subsequent acquisition of Michael Busch probably takes them out of the running, yet Seattle and Pittsburgh are both still targeting first base help, and offensive help in general.

While neither the M’s or Pirates are expected to be big spenders in free agency anyway, Naylor stands out as a major backup plan for any team that misses out on Pete Alonso or Christian Walker — the two biggest first basemen on the free agent market.  For one year and around $12MM, Naylor isn’t a huge splurge even for smaller-market clubs, or clubs like the Guardians who are facing broadcasting concerns.  Broadly looking at teams who have a clear or potential need at first base or DH, any of the Mets, Diamondbacks, Yankees, Astros, Brewers, Blue Jays, Reds, Nationals, Rays, Giants, or Padres (Naylor’s former team) could join the Pirates and Mariners as potential suitors.  The Tigers or Royals could also technically fit on this list but Cleveland is less likely to move Naylor to a division rival.

Since the Guardians have a lot of uncertainty in their starting rotation next year, teams that have pitching to offer might have a leg up in trade talks.  The Guards’ usual tactic of pursuing at least one prospect and at least one immediate MLB-ready player in trades could be limited by the fact that Naylor is only controlled for one season, since Naylor doesn’t have the ceiling that, say, Francisco Lindor did when Cleveland dealt the star shortstop to the Mets during the 2020-21 offseason.

There’s also the matter of how the Guardians will replace Naylor in their lineup.  Cleveland’s acquisition of prospect Kyle Manzardo from the Rays in 2023 was seen as a potential lead-in for Naylor’s departure, and Manzardo hit .234/.282/.421 (for a 98 wRC+) over his first 156 Major League PA this season.  The Guards might be confident enough in a combination of Manzardo, Jhonkensy Noel, and super-utilityman David Fry to take over first base in the event that Naylor is traded, or a lower-cost veteran could be acquired to provide more depth.  It can easily be argued that a Guardians team even with Naylor back is still in need of more offense, so trading Naylor could put Cleveland in need of finding an even bigger bat for the outfield.

The trade-and-replace routine has become familiar over the years in Cleveland, and the fanbase might grit their teeth at the idea of dealing away another prominent player for payroll-related reasons.  Moving Naylor in particular has a unique layer of potential awkwardness since his brother Bo will presumably remain on Cleveland’s roster, thus breaking up the fun idea of a family connection at the heart of the lineup.

Still, the Guardians’ tactic of trading players rather than just letting them walk in free agency has allowed the club to continually reload both the farm system and the active roster.  Antonetti doesn’t have a spotless track record with his deals, yet Antonetti’s high batting average on the trade market has helped the Guards post winning records in 10 of the last 12 seasons, with seven postseason trips in that span.  Finding the right match on a Naylor trade this winter might result in Cleveland getting back to the playoffs next fall.