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Naoyuki Uwasawa To Be Posted For MLB Teams This Winter

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Japanese right-hander Naoyuki Uwasawa is planning a move to North American baseball, as the Nippon Ham-Fighters starter told reporters (including the Kyodo News) at a press conference.  Uwasawa isn’t yet a full agent, so he will be made available to Major League via the posting system.  Uwasawa turns 30 in February, and has a 3.19 ERA over 1118 1/3 career innings with the Fighters, along with a 7.5% walk rate and a modest 19.67% strikeout rate.

Making his NPB debut in 2014, Uwasawa is a three-time All-Star (including this season) and has developed into a reliable starter in terms of both results and durability, apart from a freak injury that shortened his 2019 season.  Uwasawa had his left knee fractured by a line drive that year, but has returned in good health, tossing 102 innings during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season and then throwing at least 152 innings in each of the last three full NPB seasons.

MLBTR’s Dai Takegami Podziewski has regularly featured Uwasawa in his NPB Players To Watch feature, as Uwasawa has made his intentions clear for some time that he wanted to test himself against North American competition.  There are some concerns over Uwasawa’s ability to transition to the big leagues, as Dai wrote that “Uwasawa doesn’t have an overpowering arm with his average fastball velocity sitting around 90.8 mph. He also does not boast strikeout stuff, while not having the same command that [Kohei] Arihara had when he was coming to MLB (although Arihara himself was wild during his Rangers tenure).”  The mention of Arihara isn’t a promising comp, as Arihara had a 7.57 ERA over 60 2/3 innings with Texas in 2021-22 before returning to Nippon Professional Baseball for the 2023 campaign.

Nonetheless, MLB teams are gauging for themselves how well they think Uwasawa might fare against big league competition.  A Sports Hochi report from September indicated that scouts from the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Reds, Royals, Cubs, and Angels all saw Uwasawa in action, so the righty is drawing a fair amount of interest.  While Uwasawa doesn’t have the high profile of NPB stars like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shota Imanaga, and others this winter, he does represent an interesting mid-level entry into the pitching market who probably won’t require a particularly large contract.

As a reminder about the MLB/NPB posting system, any players with less than nine full years of experience must first be posted by his Japanese team before negotiating with Major League clubs.  Once posted, Uwasawa has 45 days to talk with any MLB team he wishes, and he would return to the Fighters after those 45 days if no contract agreement is reached.  The Fighters would receive a posting fee if Uwasawa did sign with a Major League team, with the fee being worth at least 20% of the guaranteed value of Uwasawa’s contract.  Should Uwasawa sign for more than $25MM in guaranteed money, the Fighters would receive a higher fee.

NL West Notes: Christenson, Giants, Padres, Chapman, Soto, Kershaw

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Bob Melvin isn’t alone in going from the Padres to the Giants, as reports have suggested that San Diego third base coach Matt Williams will be joining Melvin in San Francisco.  Padres associate manager Ryan Christenson also looks to be on the move, as The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly writes that Christenson is expected to be a part of Melvin’s staff with the Giants.  Christenson has been Melvin’s second-in-command for the last six seasons, first as Melvin’s bench coach with the A’s from 2018-21 and then joining him with the Padres as a bench coach and associate manager for the last two seasons.

It isn’t known what coaching roles Christenson and Williams might take with the Giants, though most of the (very large) staff was expected to stay in place.  Bench coach Kai Correa is under contract for next season, though Baggarly writes that the Giants are likely to give him permission to interview with other teams, so this could provide an opening for Christenson to just assume the bench coach job.  Mark Hallberg is the third base coach, and since the team thought highly enough of Hallberg to interview him for the manager’s job, the Giants could probably try to find space for both Hallberg and Williams on the staff.

More from around the NL West…

  • Also from Baggarly’s piece, he suggests that Matt Chapman could be a good fit as a free agent target for the Giants this winter.  Of course, Chapman played under Melvin for years with the A’s, and beyond that recruiting link, adding Chapman would solidify a proper everyday player within a San Francisco lineup that has perhaps suffered for having too many platoon players and moving parts in recent years.  Chapman’s stellar glove would instantly upgrade the Giants’ struggling defense, and put less fielding pressure on Marco Luciano (possibly the next regular shortstop in the Bay).  J.D. Davis and possibly Casey Schmitt would then become trade chips for San Francisco if Chapman was installed at the hot corner.
  • With the Cubs and Yankees both already rumored to be eyeing Juan Soto this offseason, the trade speculation about the Padres star isn’t likely to end until he is either extended by San Diego, or until a trade actually happens.  Of course, it isn’t yet clear if the Padres are willing to move Soto at all this winter, and The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner hears from a league source that if Soto is dealt, it might not happen until closer to the trade deadline.  Dealing Soto that late would naturally reduce the trade package San Diego would receive in return, yet for a Padres team desperate to contend in 2024, they might first want to see if they can get on track with Soto in the lineup before considering a deal.
  • Clayton Kershaw has one-year free agent deals with the Dodgers in each of the last two offseasons, and it has been widely known that Kershaw was choosing between only retirement, returning to Los Angeles, or possibly signing with his hometown Rangers.  While Kershaw opted to keep playing in L.A. on both occasions, Bill Shakin of the Los Angeles Times wonders if Texas’ breakout success now makes it a tougher decision for Kershaw, as the Rangers have now shown that their willingness to spend can translate to championship contention.

Athletics Outright Kirby Snead

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The A’s have outrighted Kirby Snead off their 40-man roster, as per the left-hander’s MLB.com profile page.  Snead can’t reject the assignment to Triple-A since he doesn’t have enough Major League service time and because this is his first outright, but he is probably likely to become a minor league free agent.

Snead came to the Athletics as part of the Matt Chapman trade package from the Blue Jays in March 2022, and he has a 5.59 ERA over 56 1/3 relief innings for the A’s over his two seasons in the organization.  Only 11 2/3 of those innings came in 2023, as a shoulder sprain suffered during Spring Training kept him on the 60-day injured list until the end of June.  Snead didn’t appear in a game on the big league roster until August 1, and he made 15 appearances before being optioned to Triple-A in early September.

In the small sample size of 64 total MLB innings to his name, Snead has a 17.2% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate, and 42.7% grounder rate.  These uninspiring numbers aren’t nearly as solid as Snead’s K% and groundball rates in the minors, and Snead’s 3.39 ERA over 273 1/3 minor league frames is also encouraging, even if the results haven’t been there with Triple-A Las Vegas in the last two seasons.  Snead’s control in particular has become an issue, calling back to some problems he had earlier in his career in issuing free passes.

Assuming Snead hits the open market, the 29-year-old will catch on somewhere with a team looking for left-handed relief depth, or Snead could perhaps be a candidate to explore his options with a team overseas.  A reunion with Oakland seems possible, as the A’s figure to be looking for inexpensive relief options and might pivot back to a familiar face.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies held 2-0 and 3-2 leads in the NLCS, but dropped Games 6 and 7 at home to fall short of another World Series appearance.  There is no doubt the Phils will reload for another championship run in 2024, yet they’ll have to address the possible departure of two long-time franchise staples.

Guaranteed Contracts

Total 2024 commitments: $179.9MM
Total long-term commitments: $724.73MM

Option Decisions

  • Scott Kingery, IF/OF: $13MM club option for 2024 ($1MM buyout; Phillies also hold $29MM worth of club options on Kingery for the 2025-26 seasons)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Only four of the 40 players drafted by the Phillies in the 2014 draft ended up reaching the majors, with Austin Davis making 136 appearances (50 for Philadelphia) and Brandon Leibrandt pitching in five games with the Marlins in 2020.  Fortunately for the Phils, their other two selections paid bigger dividends, as seventh overall pick Aaron Nola debuted barely a year after his draft date and became a front-of-the-rotation cornerstone.  Rhys Hoskins didn’t reach the Show until 2017, but he finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in his debut season and provided six seasons of solid (126 wRC+) offense as the team’s regular first baseman, after an ill-advised experiment as a left fielder early in his career.

Both players are now set to hit the open market, and for Hoskins, he didn’t even get to properly enjoy what might be a final year in the City of Brotherly Love.  A torn left ACL during Spring Training cost Hoskins his entire season, and his subsequent efforts to possibly make it back for some DH duty during the World Series were cut short when the Phillies were ousted by the Diamondbacks in the NLCS.

One of Dave Dombrowski’s first major moves after being hired as president of baseball operations in late 2020 was to re-sign J.T. Realmuto in free agency during the 2020-21 offseason.  So, Dombrowski and the Philadelphia organization in general aren’t afraid to bring back their own guys, even at a high price tag driven by the open market.  Re-signing Realmuto cost five years and $115.5MM, and it looks like it’ll take way more to bring Nola back into the fold, as reports have suggested that the two sides were far apart in previous extension talks.  The Phillies were reportedly looking to retain Nola for four or five more seasons, but the right-hander and his camp was aiming for an eight-year pact worth more than $200MM.

Nola is going to be one of the top pitchers available this winter, and even with the price of pitching always high on the free agent market, it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to approach the $200MM threshold.  Nola doesn’t turn 31 until June and he has a long track record of durability, plus 2022 was arguably the best season of his career.  However, Nola was more good than great in 2023, as an inflated home run rate led to a 4.46 ERA over 193 2/3 innings, and his 25.5% strikeout rate was his lowest since 2016.

The Phillies will make re-signing Nola “our priority,” according to Dombrowski, so a reunion might well be coming.  Or, if the club has doubts about Nola’s production beyond his mid-30’s, the team might feel its free agent dollars are best spent elsewhere.  The question then becomes whether or not Philadelphia might make another rotation splash, especially with some other long-term questions surrounding Zack Wheeler’s future.

The 2024 rotation currently lines up as Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Wallker, Cristopher Sanchez, and potentially Matt Strahm as the fifth starter.  Strahm looked quite good as a fill-in starter early in the season before being moved back to the bullpen and continuing to excel in relief work.  Philadelphia could explore stretching out Strahm in Spring Training to give him a fuller look as a starting pitcher and let him compete for any possible open rotation job.  Top prospect Mick Abel figures to make his MLB debut sometime in 2024, and another top minor leaguer in Andrew Painter is likely out of next season’s plans entirely since he underwent Tommy John surgery last July.

It is perhaps worth mentioning the hard feelings that seem to have emerged with Walker and club management, as the right-hander has shown some public displeasure on social media over not being used during the playoffs.  This doesn’t necessarily suggest that Walker will be traded or anything, and a deal might be hard to find anyway.  Walker had a modest 4.38 ERA and some very lackluster secondary numbers over 172 2/3 innings in 2023, and he still has $54MM remaining on a contract signed just last winter.  Cooler heads might very well prevail over the course of the offseason, but this could perhaps be an under-the-radar situation to monitor on the trade front.

Of course, trading a starter isn’t likely to happen until the Phillies have figured out how to replace Nola.  If the righty doesn’t re-sign, the Phils could explore signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, or Jordan Montgomery as the team’s next long-term ace.  Wheeler is set for free agency himself next winter, and will still command another big payday beyond his age-34 season if he keeps pitching as well as he did in 2023.  The Phillies figure to discuss an extension with Wheeler this winter, and if he is amenable to a relatively short-term pact given his age, perhaps he might be the one who ends up with a new deal of four or five seasons.

Philadelphia doesn’t have the deepest farm system in the world, but with the team in clear win-now mode, Dombrowski could again dip into the minor league ranks to explore adding another arm.  Tyler Glasnow, Corbin Burnes, or Shane Bieber are all one-year rentals and would be available at the right (hefty) price, while the more controllable starters on the trade market would come at an even steeper cost of talent.

The bullpen also needs some attention, as Craig Kimbrel is set to return to the open market after his one year as the Phillies’ closer.  Kimbrel pitched well for much of the season, but a pair of high-profile blowups during the NLCS cost Philadelphia two games and his closer’s role for the rest of the series.  While a small sample size, it does continue Kimbrel’s somewhat inconsistent play over the last three seasons, and the Phillies might not want to take a chance again if they have doubts over Kimbrel’s ability to perform in the playoff spotlight.

Jose Alvarado is the obvious internal name to become closer if Kimbrel isn’t re-signed, and if Orion Kerkering is ready for a bigger role in his first full MLB season, the Phillies might look towards only more mid-tier names in their offseason bullpen shopping.  Of course, with the team’s propensity for big-ticket moves, there will probably be some level of speculation linking Josh Hader to the Phils until Hader eventually picks his next team.

While Kimbrel, Hoskins, Nola, and Michael Lorenzen represent a decent chunk of money coming off the books, the Phillies already have (as per Roster Resource) roughly $212.3MM in actual dollars and a $228MM luxury tax number attached to their 2024 payroll.  Last season’s Opening Day payroll sat close to the $243MM mark, and with a tax number around $263MM — above the second tax tier, but under the $273MM threshold that would’ve triggered a ten-position drop for Philadelphia’s first pick in the 2024 draft.

It isn’t known exactly where managing partner John Middleton might draw the line on spending, but Middleton clearly has no issue in committing big money to keep the Phillies in contention.  After the last two seasons’ worth of close calls, Middleton might be even more willing to spend to add the final pieces to the championship puzzle.

To this end, the Phillies will at least check in on Shohei Ohtani out of pure due diligence if nothing else.  Obviously such a signing would be an imperfect fit within the Phils’ lineup, as Ohtani in the DH slot would lock in Bryce Harper at first base and Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos into corner outfield duty.  But, since the Phillies are one of the organizations with deep enough pockets to meet Ohtani’s record-setting asking price, they make sense as a potential suitor for the two-way star this winter.

Accommodating Ohtani might be a reason for the Phillies to cost themselves some positional flexibility, yet doing the same to re-sign Hoskins might be another matter.  Hoskins is likely to just sign a one-year deal this winter as he attempts to prove himself healthy and worthy of a longer-term contract next offseason, so re-signing Hoskins wouldn’t represent a huge investment for Philadelphia.  The team might even issue Hoskins a qualifying offer, if they’re okay with paying Hoskins $20.5MM coming off a torn ACL since it’s hard to imagine the first baseman would turn down such a payday.  With Hoskins so likely to accept a QO, the Phillies might want to hold off on further clogging their first base/DH situation until they get a better read on Ohtani’s market.

Harper’s ability to handle first base gave the Phils more defensive flexibility last year, allowing for Schwarber to DH and for both Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas to get more looks in the outfield.  Harper may also return to at least part-time work in his old right field position, now that he is further removed from his Tommy John surgery.  In short, keeping a first base-only player like Hoskins would limit what the Phillies could do around the diamond.  Defense continued to be a problem for the Phillies over the course of the 2023 season, and since the everyday lineup is already pretty set, adding a utility type instead of Hoskins would add more overall depth.

The relative stability of the starting lineup presents Dombrowski with an interesting challenge this winter.  Almost every team would love to have a core like Philadelphia’s star-laden lineup, and an argument can easily be made that the Phils should just run things back with the same group in 2024 and hope things can fully click in October.  “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” might apply here, except the NLCS might have revealed some cracks in that foundation.

For instance, could the Phillies explore trading either Castellanos or Alec Bohm?  Castellanos hit for more power and had a lot more strikeouts in 2023, but the two were similarly productive overall — Bohm had a 105 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR, while Castellanos had a 109 wRC+ and 1.0 fWAR.  Offense was the backbone of those fWAR numbers, as Castellanos was again very subpar in right field while Bohm actually improved to above-average third base glovework in the views of the UZR/150 and OAA metrics, even if Defensive Runs Saved (-10) continued to dismiss his efforts.

Obviously, trading Bohm would be a lot simpler for the Phils from a salary perspective.  The former third overall pick is just entering his arbitration years and is controlled through 2026, while Castellanos’ contract entitles him to $60MM over that same timeframe.  Barring taking on another team’s undesirable contract, the Phillies would have to either eat money in a Castellanos trade or include some significant prospect capital to sweeten the pot, whereas a rival club might think Bohm could fully break out with a change of scenery.

Moving Castellanos would further help the Phillies’ defensive issues, as either Harper could just return to right field and a new first baseman (or a re-signed Hoskins) could join the fold, or Philadelphia could obtain a new corner outfielder altogether.  Likewise, trading Bohm could open up third base for a better defensive option and a more proven hitter.

This is all easier said than done, of course, and team chemistry elements must be considered beyond just a pure baseball fit.  However, Dombrowski has a long history of creative trades, whether it’s trading prospects for proven stars or even dealing an established big league player (i.e. Rick Porcello for Yoenis Cespedes, or Prince Fielder for Ian Kinsler) for another that may be a better fit for his team’s needs.  While the pitching staff will be the Phillies’ top priority this winter, not much can be ruled out when Dombrowski is making calls, Middleton is willing to write the checks, and the pressure to win is increasing after two near-misses.

In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk held a Phillies-centric live chat with MLBTR readers.  Click here to read the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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Getting swept out of the ALDS by the Rangers brought a sour end to an otherwise very successful season in Baltimore.  The Orioles won 101 games to capture the AL East, and the best may be yet to come given all of the young talent still to emerge out of the loaded farm system.

Guaranteed Contracts

Other Financial Obligations

Total 2024 commitments: $5MM
Total future commitments: $8MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The O’s turned the corner on their rebuild by winning 83 games in 2022, yet general manager Mike Elias has thus far taken a conservative response to his team’s breakout.  He still opted to sell at the 2022 trade deadline, yet the deals of Trey Mancini to the Astros and (especially) Jorge Lopez to the Twins now look quite shrewd in the bigger picture.  Elias then made mostly short-term moves last winter, adding Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, and Mychal Givens on one-year contracts and acquiring James McCann in a salary dump of a trade with the Mets.  Even at this past season’s trade deadline, with the Orioles posting one of baseball’s top records, Elias picked up the struggling Jack Flaherty rather than a more prominent starting pitcher.  As it turned out, Flaherty didn’t pitch well in Baltimore, and fell out of the rotation entirely by September.

The big question facing the Orioles this winter is simply, will Elias and team ownership get more aggressive in adding win-now pieces to what might be a burgeoning powerhouse?  Some caution was understandable after 2022 since Elias probably didn’t want to jump to conclusions that his team was ready to contend….yet a 101-win season now removes all doubt.

Baltimore’s rebuilding process led to a corresponding slash of spending, as the Orioles have been a bottom-four payroll team in each of the last five seasons.  As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Orioles’ Opening Day payroll in 2023 was slightly under $61MM, and the second-lowest total of any team.  Based on their negligible long-term salary commitments and the projections of their arbitration-eligible players, the O’s have only $58.5MM lined up for their 2024 payroll, and even that number should be a bit smaller in the event of a few non-tenders from the arb class.

It’s worth remembering that during their last contention window in the mid-10s, the Orioles were regularly in the top half in league spending, and ranked as high as ninth in Opening Day payroll (a little under $147.7MM) heading into the 2016 season.  This doesn’t mean that the Orioles need to vault back up to that number over the course of one winter, but an argument can surely be made that Elias and the team have earned a larger investment in their on-field endeavors.

Unfortunately, ownership’s top priority right now might not be on the team itself.  The Orioles and the state of Maryland reached a “memorandum of understanding” in September that laid the groundwork for the O’s to remain in Baltimore for the next 30 years, in addition to a wider-ranging project that will see extra land surrounding Camden Yards be redeveloped into something of a ballpark village, akin to the Battery area adjacent to the Braves’ Truist Park.  While there seems to be an understanding in place between the team and civic officials that the deal will be completed soon, the fact remains that the agreement isn’t yet set in stone, even with the Orioles’ current least at Camden Yards expiring on December 31.

As such, it doesn’t seem like the player payroll will get any major boost until these future revenue streams have been firmly secured, or even until the revenues start rolling in for the team.  “I don’t think you should run losses.  I think you should live within your means and within your market,” club chairman/CEO John Angelos told the New York Times’ Tyler Kepner in August.  In regards to player salaries, Angelos explained “let’s say we sat down and showed you the financials for the Orioles.  You will quickly see that when people talk about giving this player $200MM, that player $150MM, we would be so financially underwater that you’d have to raise the prices massively.  Now, are people going to come and pay that?….But really that’s just one team. What I’m really trying to think about is macro.”

Angelos’ interview quickly became infamous among Baltimore fans, and may have halted any speculation that the team might pursue contract extensions with Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg, or any other Orioles blue-chipper youngsters.  Or, that the O’s will make a big splash on a top-tier free agent this offseason as a veteran leader for its young core.  This doesn’t mean that the payroll won’t go up to some extent, as the Orioles did at least increase spending by around $17MM from 2022 to 2023.  But, if the front office is still being limited in what it can spend, Elias will have to get creative in adding some needed pieces to the roster.

The bright side for Elias is that his roster might already be pretty set.  The Austin Hays/Cedric Mullins/Anthony Santander outfield can return intact, Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn can split first base and DH duties with O’Hearn chipping in as a corner outfielder, Rutschman is locked in at catcher, Henderson will play every day at either third base or shortstop, and some combination of Westburg, Ramon Urias, and Jorge Mateo can handle second base and the other infield position that Henderson isn’t playing.

If this wasn’t enough, top prospects Heston Kjerstad, Joey Ortiz, and Colton Cowser all made their MLB debuts in 2023, and 2019 second-round pick Kyle Stowers is part of the outfield picture.  And if that wasn’t enough, the O’s also have Jackson Holliday (the top prospect in baseball) perhaps ready to make his debut as early as Opening Day, not to mention the likes of Coby Mayo, Connor Norby, Dylan Beavers, and Jud Fabian also knocking on the door for big league playing time.

Not all of these prospects will pan out, of course, and different rival teams undoubtedly have their own varying opinions on minor leaguers throughout the Orioles’ farm system.  But, it isn’t a stretch to say that Baltimore has the prospect depth to get involved in talks about almost any available trade target in baseball, thus giving Elias a way to add premium talent without spending big on a notable free agent contract.  In fact, the O’s could even explore adding a high-priced trade target and have the other team cover most of the player’s salary, provided the Orioles are willing to up the amount of young talent they gave up in return.

Likewise, the Orioles’ faith in their youngsters could also turn some of their own more experienced players into trade chips.  If the O’s think Mayo is ready to contribute right away in the corner infield picture, they could look to trade Mountcastle to a team in need of first base help.  If Westburg is seen as an everyday player and Holliday is coming quickly, one of Urias or Mateo could be dealt to an infield-needy club.  Kjerstad or Cowser might be able to step into an outfield role, thus making Mullins, Hays, or (most likely of the group) Santander available.

Santander’s projected $12.7MM arbitration salary puts him on pace to be the team’s highest-paid player in 2024, and he is set to enter free agency in the 2024-25 offseason.  As productive a player as Santander still is, if Baltimore doesn’t see him as part of the future, now might be the time to sell.

With so much position-player depth still in the pipeline, odds are that the Orioles will be wary about adding an everyday-type of player in trades or free agency, as they either don’t want to block a prospect at a certain position, or give up assets to address a position when an internal answer might already be in place.  One possible exception might be Aaron Hicks, whose path to re-signing with Baltimore might only come if one of the Santander/Mullins/Hays trio is traded.  Since the Yankees are still footing the bill on Hicks’ contract for the next two seasons, Hicks can sign for just a minimum contract in free agency, thus giving him the freedom to pick any contender he wants for 2024 or beyond.  Considering how Hicks revived his career after joining the O’s this year, one would imagine he’d certainly have interest in a reunion, and the Orioles might also see Hicks as a needed veteran voice if another outfielder was indeed moved.

If Baltimore does make a blockbuster trade this winter, it is much more likely that it will involve adding a starting pitcher.  To be clear, the Orioles’ rotation is only a weak link in relative terms — as MLBTR’s Nick Deeds recently observed, the pitching staff improved as the season went on, which augurs well for 2024.  The highly-touted Rodriguez got better and better during his rookie year, the O’s will have a full year of John Means now that he’s recovered from Tommy John surgery, and Kyle Bradish was quietly one of the better starters in all of baseball.

With this trio, the solid Dean Kremer, and Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin, Bruce Zimmermann, and DL Hall all battling for a fifth starter’s job, that’s not a bad amount of depth already in the fold.  And, of course, there’s some help on the farm, with Seth Johnson, Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott all likely to be in line for MLB innings next season.  However, even with the caveat that the Rangers’ mighty lineup can make a lot of pitching staffs look bad, the playoffs indicated that Baltimore doesn’t yet have a true frontline rotation.

Re-signing Gibson wouldn’t be too expensive a gambit, yet it can be argued that a mid-rotation arm who can eat innings might not be a priority considering how the rest of the staff developed.  For a division winner looking to contend for a championship, the Orioles could aim higher at a true ace.  Signing a Yoshinobu Yamamoto or a Blake Snell in free agency doesn’t seem feasible given how the O’s don’t seem willing to spend at that level yet, but the trade market presents some interesting options.

Corbin Burnes and Shane Bieber are widely seen as two of the winter’s prime candidates, as both pitchers are a year away from free agency.  Brandon Woodruff’s shoulder surgery might change the equation of the Brewers’ willingness to move Burnes, yet Milwaukee is always in need of the kind of controllable, MLB-ready young players that the Orioles can provide.  Bieber isn’t quite the clear-cut ace he was in his Cy Young-winning prime, yet he would be a nice addition to Baltimore’s rotation, and the Guardians are in sore need of hitting help (particularly in the outfield).  The question here would be how much would the Orioles be willing to give up for just one year of a pitcher’s services, if the O’s wouldn’t be open to re-signing either next offseason.

Tyler Glasnow, Zack Wheeler, and Max Fried are also pitchers slated for free agency after 2024, but they’re all less-likely fits for Baltimore.  While the Rays will probably be open to moving Glasnow’s $25MM salary, moving him to their chief division rival seems improbable.  The Phillies and Braves each have other rotation concerns this offseason that might preclude dealing an ace-level pitcher.

Moving onto more controllable arms, the Orioles still have lots of possibilities.  The Mariners would want the moon and stars to trade George Kirby or Logan Gilbert, but Baltimore’s galaxy of elite prospects would get their attention.  The White Sox want to return to contention next year but if their plans change, Dylan Cease could be available.  The Tigers’ collection of young pitchers have been hampered by early-career injuries, but could be on Baltimore’s radar since Detroit needs some bats.  The Dodgers have a lot of young arms who just made their MLB debuts in 2023, and if L.A. can obtain a veteran arm or two to shore up its rotation, the Dodgers could then address their needs around the diamond by discussing a swap of young pitching for young hitting with the O’s.

Baltimore’s pitching search may also have to expand to the bullpen, now that Felix Bautista will miss all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery.  The superstar closer was a huge part of the Orioles’ success, and there’s no easy replacement even if Yennier Cano (or Danny Coulombe or Bryan Baker) could step into the ninth-inning role in 2024.  Trading premium prospects for relief pitching doesn’t seem too likely, in part because Wells or Hall might stick in the bullpen if they aren’t needed for rotation work, and because Elias has been so adept at finding and developing relievers.

While that knack for finding hidden gems isn’t easily replicated, the Orioles are probably more likely to again target relievers who haven’t quite emerged at the MLB level yet, despite some quality stuff and upside.  The O’s made such an acquisition in landing Shintaro Fujinami from the Athletics back in July, and while Fujinami didn’t pitch great in Baltimore, the club might consider bringing him back on an inexpensive deal for a second look.

All in all, the Orioles figure to be involved in any number of trade rumors this winter, as rival clubs will undoubtedly be coming calling about their prospects and Elias will surely make some inquiries of his own.  The success of the rebuilding project seems to have outpaced Angelos’ readiness (or willingness) to start boosting payroll, yet there’s no easier path to greater revenues than a championship-level team.  A spending increase to even the $100MM mark would give Elias all the more flexibility to add what might only be some finishing touches on a World Series contender.

In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk held an Orioles-centric chat with MLBTR readers.  Click here to read the transcript.

NL Central Notes: Woodruff, Cubs, Cardinals

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Brandon Woodruff addressed several topics during an interview on Foul Territory, including his hopes of returning from shoulder surgery before the 2024 season is over.  The possibility certainly exists that Woodruff’s anterior capsule procedure might sideline him for the entire year, but the Brewers right-hander acknowledged that he is far too early in the recovery process to set any timelines.  However, Woodruff said that “from talking with multiple doctors, there is a possibility to be open to me throwing at some point this summer….As an athlete, you have to set goals and [have] something to look forward to.”

Woodruff is under arbitration control for one remaining season and was initially seen as a possible trade candidate this winter given his rising arb price tag.  His shoulder surgery ended any chance of a trade, but it create some chance that the Brewers could non-tender Woodruff altogether.  That said, the Brew Crew might also look to sign Woodruff to some type of lower-cost two-year contract, allowing him time to recover and then hopefully be ready for a full season in 2025.  The two-time All-Star hasn’t yet spoken with the team about any kind of contract or his injury situation in general, but since “the season isn’t over yet,” he figures those conversations will eventually come.  Woodruff’s preference is definitely to stay put, as “I’ve been so lucky to be with one organization and basically one coaching staff my whole career….I fit in so well with that city and this organization that my hope is that I will be a Brewer for a long time.  That’s what I want.”

More from around the NL Central….

  • Injuries and inconsistency hampered the Cubs’ bullpen late in the season, contributing to the team’s subsequent fall out of the playoff race in September.  Relief pitching figures to be a target area for Chicago this winter, but Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic don’t believe this season’s outcome will change the front office’s aversion to heavy investments in the bullpen, given how relievers can run so hot or cold from year to year.  Some more experienced arms will be sought out, but with “an emphasis on finding veteran relievers who have had some success in the past — or flashed the potential to put it all together — but haven’t done it consistently or recently enough to command a multiyear contract.”
  • The Rangers’ Mike Maddux and the Diamondbacks’ Brent Strom are the opposing pitching coaches for the World Series, and Jeff Jones of the Bellville News-Democrat notes the bittersweet nature of this matchup for the Cardinals, considering that both coaches used to be employed in the St. Louis organization.  Maddux was the team’s pitching coach from 2018-22 before joining the Rangers last winter, and Strom worked for St. Louis from 2007-13, including a stint as the Cards’ minor league pitching coordinator.  Considering that the Cardinals’ pitching faltered in 2023 and they’re now planning to overhaul their rotation this winter, Jones observes that “whatever changes come in the staffing of player and pitching development will likely take the form of attempting to re-capture some of what was already in house and departed.”

Athletics Sign Vinny Nittoli

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The A’s signed right-hander Vinny Nittoli to a minor league contract, according to reporter Jessica Kleinschmidt (X link).  The deal includes an invitation to Oakland’s big league Spring Training camp.

It was a pretty short stint on the open market for Nittoli, who only elected minor league free agency a few days ago after the Mets outrighted the 32-year-old off their 40-man roster last week.  Nittoli came to New York in a trade from the Cubs last June, and all of his 2023 big league action came in a Mets uniform — 3 2/3 innings pitched over three appearances.

This makes it three MLB seasons for Nittoli, though he has only 6 2/3 career innings and six games under his belt as a big leaguer.  A 25th-round draft pick for the Mariners in 2014, Nittoli has bounced around to nine different organizations in total, including both his new deal with the Athletics.  He has also been with the Mariners and Blue Jays in multiple stints, and pitched in independent ball in 2017-18.

Nittoli has largely worked as a relief pitcher during this well-traveled career, and he has a 5.04 ERA over 153 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level.  Despite some pretty solid strikeout totals, Nittoli has been hampered by the home run ball in recent years, particularly in 2023 when he allowed 11 homers in 42 2/3 total innings with the Cubs’ and Mets’ top affiliates.

The righty’s secondary metrics have been decent enough to keep meriting looks from a variety of different teams now, but Nittoli hasn’t yet been able to establish himself beyond anything more than a few cups of coffee in the majors.  A fresh opportunity awaits in Oakland, and since the rebuilding A’s are on the lookout for low-cost veterans to fill out their bullpen, Nittoli might have a shot at winning himself a job in Spring Training.

Red Sox Notes: Breslow, Huntington, Levine, Mejdal, Bailey

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Craig Breslow, Neal Huntington, and Thad Levine were the final three candidates for the Red Sox in their search for a new front office boss, MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam writes.  That search came to an end earlier this week when Breslow was hired as Boston’s new chief baseball officer, putting the former Cubs assistant GM and 12-year big league veteran in charge of a front office for the first time.

Huntington and Levine were known to be under consideration, though Levine initially didn’t appear to be a finalist when reports surfaced this week that the Red Sox had told him he was no longer a candidate for the job.  At the time, it seemed like the Sox were moving onto a second round of interviews in their hiring process, yet it now appears as if that second round had already begun, and the Sox had made their decision about Breslow.  It seemed as though Breslow sealed the deal with a strong interview with Sox principal owner John Henry during that secondary stage.

Back in September, Peter Gammons reported that the Red Sox had some interest in Breslow for a possible role as a director of pitching development.  That early link between Breslow and the Sox could tie into McAdam’s breakdown of how the team didn’t initially have Breslow on the radar as a CBO candidate at first, in part due to his lack of experience as a GM or president of baseball operations.  However, as the Red Sox increasingly became open to the idea of at least making Breslow the chief lieutenant of a CBO, they still had difficulty finding someone appropriate for that top job, thus making Breslow an even more attractive candidate.  McAdam also notes that the Sox were concerned that the Cubs might offer Breslow a promotion to stay in Chicago if he was offered anything less than a CBO position, or that another team might come calling about Breslow in the near future about a CBO/PBO job if he was only in a secondary role in Boston.

The front office search was marked by several notable executives who declined to interview with the Red Sox, though McAdam writes that Boston had interest in a candidate that seemingly wasn’t given permission for an interview.  The Sox wanted to speak with Orioles assistant GM Sig Mejdal, yet the O’s “dragged their feet on the process and never provided the Sox with the go-ahead to speak with Mejdal,” according to McAdam.

The 57-year-old Mejdal has been with Baltimore since November 2018, and was one of Mike Elias’ first hires when Elias took over the Orioles’ front office as general manager.  Mejdal has been one of the key figures of baseball’s analytics movement over the last two decades, as his work with the Orioles, Astros, and Cardinals has led those clubs to tremendous results in maximizing talent and finding and developing young players.  As McAdam observes, it probably isn’t surprising that the Orioles wanted to keep Mejdal in the fold, even if most organizations generally allow employees to interview for promotions on other teams.  It isn’t known if Mejdal would’ve been open to an interview anyway, as there has been some past speculation that Mejdal is happy in a behind-the-scenes role rather than running a front office himself.

Returning to Breslow, it’s still too early to tell how he’ll approach the makeup of his baseball operations department, which will continue to have several longtime holdovers (assistant GMs Eddie Romero, Raquel Ferreira, Michael Groopman) who are expected to stay in the organization.  Whether one of them could be elevated to a full-time general manager role to act as Breslow’s No. 2 remains to be seen, or if he might hire a GM from outside Fenway Park to provide another new voice in the mix.

As for on-field matters, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford speculates that Giants pitching coach Andrew Bailey might be a candidate to join Boston’s staff, as Breslow and Bailey are close friends and former teammates from when they pitched together with the Athletics and Red Sox from 2009-13.  The Sox fired pitching coach Dave Bush after the season, and some recent reports suggest Bailey might look to leave San Francisco for a job closer to his family on the East Coast.

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