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Extension Candidate: Adley Rutschman
Within the last four years, Luis Robert, Eloy Jimenez, Evan White, and Scott Kingery all signed their first multi-year Major League contracts before even debuting in the Show, as clubs began to increasingly explore the idea of the “pre-career” extension. The logic is simple — if a team thinks it has a can’t-miss prospect, signing that prospect to an extension before his service clock begins can give the team both cost-certainty over the player’s arbitration years, as well as control over at least a few free agent years via club options.
Robert’s six-year, $50MM pact with the White Sox (that could be an eight-year, $88MM deal if Chicago exercises a pair of club options) in January 2020 represents the high-water mark for pre-career deals, yet it is worth noting that the Astros were something of a pioneer with this tactic. Jon Singleton signed a five-year, $10MM contract in June 2014 before playing his first MLB game, and Houston also notably explored such a contract with George Springer prior to the future All-Star’s big league debut. This period overlaps with Mike Elias’ time (2012-18) in the Astros’ front office, and now that Elias has since moved on to run his own team as the Orioles’ executive VP and general manager, it is worth wondering if Elias might attempt locking up his own blue-chip prospect.
Adley Rutschman is widely expected to not only make his MLB debut in 2022, but also get the bulk of playing time as Baltimore’s starting catcher. Jacob Nottingham and Anthony Bemboom were recently signed to minors deals to provide at least some Major League experience in the team’s catching ranks, but either will just be a placeholder until Rutschman gets the call to the big leagues. Whether this debut happens on Opening Day or a few weeks into April may hinge on whether or not the service-time manipulation issue is addressed in the next Collective Bargaining Agreement, but an extension for Rutschman would make that question moot, and guarantee that Baltimore fans will get to see Rutschman as soon as possible.
The first overall pick of the 2019 draft, Rutschman has done nothing but reinforce that pedigree during his brief pro career. Rutschman already received two promotions up the ladder (to A-ball) in his first season in 2019, and after working out at the Orioles’ alternate training site in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season, he tore up the farm system in 2021. The catcher hit .285/.397/.502 with 23 home runs over 543 combined plate appearances with Double-A Bowie (358 PA) and Triple-A Norfolk (185 PA).
An argument can be made that Rutschman could use a bit more seasoning at the Triple-A level, particularly since he’ll be taking over a position that requires so much extra work in terms of pregame preparation and working with pitchers. However, as noted in Baseball America’s scouting report, Rutschman may be a bit ahead of the curve in this respect, due to his time spent with veteran pitchers, catchers, and Major League coaches at the 2020 alternate training site. Plus, Rutschman was already seen as a strong defender even in his college days at Oregon State, and BA now gives him a strong 60 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale (to go along with an eye-popping three 70 grades in hitting, power, and throwing arm.) Both BA and MLB Pipeline rate Rutschman as the best prospect in all of baseball.
In short, Rutschman seems like the kind of cornerstone prospect that any team would covet, especially an Orioles club that has been grinding through a top-to-bottom rebuild during Elias’ entire tenure. The O’s already see Rutschman as the next face of the franchise, and an extension would only cement that status. Given that the Orioles have almost literally no money on the books beyond the 2022 season, there’s plenty of payroll space to commit to a hefty contract for the burgeoning star.
For Rutschman and other star prospects presented with pre-career extensions, the question is simple. Does the player feel comfortable in taking a big payday now and locking in at least one eight-figure fortune from his baseball career, or does the player feel like betting on himself to perform as expected in the majors? The latter route carries more risk, but potentially sets the player up for even more money down the road, either through rising arbitration salaries, bigger free agent money once he hits the open market, or even a later extension with his current team.
From a pure dollars perspective, Rutschman has already achieved some solid financial security, via his $8.1MM signing bonus from the draft. This isn’t necessarily an indicator that he would be less open to an extension — Robert, for instance, already had a $26MM international signing bonus in the bank prior to his extension with the White Sox.
The added wrinkle in this case is Rutschman’s position. No catcher has ever signed a pre-career extension — expanding the list to players with less than a year of service time, the Royals’ February 2012 deal with Salvador Perez represents the earliest pact ever given to a backstop. Needless to say, Rutschman won’t be signing for a contract similar to Perez’s five years and $7MM in guaranteed money, though Perez did end up doing much better in two subsequent extensions with Kansas City.
Rutschman is enough of a top-tier prospect that the Orioles probably won’t have much concern over guaranteeing a big long-term deal to a catcher. From Rutschman’s perspective, taking a big contract now might have some appeal as a hedge against potential injury, simply because catchers inevitably receive so much wear and tear (even if the DH or a potential move to first base down the road can help). Plus, unless the next CBA adjusts when players are eligible to reach free agency, it will be quite some time before Rutschman can hit the open market. He turns 24 in February, so if his debut is indeed pushed off to mid-April for service-time reasons, Rutschman won’t be scheduled for free agency until he is entering his age-31 season.
So while there are some valid reasons why Rutschman might be open to an extension early in his career, that doesn’t necessarily mean he would take a deal before his career gets underway. It can be assumed that a Rutschman extension would top Robert’s record, and yet Rutschman might have eyes on a bigger target — such as the 11-year, $182MM deal Wander Franco just signed with the Rays in November.
Since Joe Mauer is the only catcher to sign a deal worth more than $182MM, Rutschman won’t top Franco’s number. Plus, Franco is both younger (turning 21 in March) and plays shortstop, so he is more of a safer long-term play for an extension, even for a lower-payroll club like the Rays. However, while Rutschman and his representatives likely wouldn’t be aiming to top Franco’s contract, the deal does serve as a reminder of the greater riches that can await a star prospect if he exhibits even some of that early promise at the MLB level. While no reports surfaced whether or not Tampa explored a pre-career extension with Franco, had he inked such a contract, it would have been worth much less than his eventual $182MM guarantee.
Obviously, matching Franco’s excellent 2021 performance is no small feat for any player, especially a rookie like Rutschman. But, just staying on the field and performing pretty well in 2022 would represent a nice showcase for Rutschman, and give the Orioles even more confidence in committing a major sum closer to the $100MM mark than simply a bump over Robert’s $50MM pact with the White Sox.
Given Rutschman’s status as an elite prospect, it is quite possible an extension akin to Robert’s deal could be on the table next winter anyway even if he doesn’t quite hit the “performing pretty well” threshold. Barring a major injury or an unusual amount of struggles at the MLB level, the Orioles would likely still have interest in extending Rutschman prior to his sophomore year, considering all of his widely-touted potential.
A Rutschman extension would also have no small amount of symbolic value for the franchise. Simply promoting Rutschman might have that same galvanizing effect on the long-suffering Baltimore fans, so Elias and the front office don’t necessarily need to rush into things just yet. However, officially planting the financial flag on a new era of Orioles baseball would set a clear direction that the rebuild is almost over, and the organization will again start spending and looking to play some competitive baseball.
Hot Stove History: How The Yankees Almost Acquired Zack Wheeler From The Mets
The Mets and Yankees haven’t agreed to a player-for-player trade since the Mike Stanton-for-Felix Heredia swap in December 2004, but that streak was almost broken in blockbuster fashion during Brodie Van Wagenen’s two-year stint as the Mets’ general manager. The two New York teams came very close to a July 2019 swap that would have sent Zack Wheeler to the Bronx, according to SNY’s Andy Martino, except an unknown player also involved in the trade failed a medical exam.
The Yankees were known to be one of the teams interested in Wheeler heading into the deadline, though the Bronx Bombers reportedly had even more interest in another Mets hurler in Noah Syndergaard. Beyond those two members of the Mets rotation, the Yankees cast a wide net looking for rotation help at the deadline but didn’t come away with any significant trades whatsoever, whether it be for pitchers or hitters.
The Mets also held off on dealing Wheeler to anyone, as the right-hander finished off a strong season and then left Queens that winter for a five-year, $118MM free agent contract with the Phillies. Interestingly, the Yankees were also linked to Wheeler’s free agent market, but instead pivoted to make an even bigger splash by signing Gerrit Cole to a nine-year, $324MM pact — still the largest contract ever given to a pitcher in total dollars.
Beyond the sheer rarity of the two Big Apple rivals swinging such a notable trade, the Wheeler deal would have created a big ripple effect across recent baseball history. For starters, adding Wheeler might have been the final piece the Yankees needed for a championship, as the club overcame a ton of injuries to win 103 games before eventually falling to the Astros in the ALCS.
If Wheeler had been a key cog in a 28th Yankees World Series title, perhaps the Bombers would’ve been more inclined to retain their new hero in free agency, rather than sign Cole. Even if keeping Wheeler might’ve cost more than $118MM in this scenario, his deal would’ve been worth much less than Cole’s contract, thus giving the Yankees extra money to spend on other needs that offseason.
It isn’t known what the Yankees would’ve had to have given up to land Wheeler from the Mets, though since he was a free agent that winter, it wouldn’t have been an overwhelming trade package for just two-plus months of the righty’s services. However, it was clearly enticing enough for Van Wagenen to pull the trigger had everything worked out on the medical front, and it was enough to outbid the many other teams known to be circling Wheeler in the lead-up to July 31, 2019. The Mets could have kept those Yankees trade pieces as a way of restocking the farm system after the Marcus Stroman deal with the Blue Jays that same deadline, or perhaps looked to flip the prospects in a future trade for more immediate help.
A Wheeler trade would have impacted his free agency in another fashion, as he would’ve been been ineligible to receive a qualifying offer due to the midseason deal. While it didn’t seem like the QO draft compensation had much impact on Wheeler’s market, the lack of a qualifying offer might have resulted in one or two extra teams getting involved, which could have resulted in a few extra millions in Wheeler’s bank account.
The qualifying offer also must have factored into the Mets’ decision-making about the proposed Wheeler deal. The Yankees must have offered something Van Wagenen judged as being more valuable than the compensatory pick the Mets were set to receive for Wheeler. This ended up being the 69th overall pick in the 2020 draft, which the Mets used on high school outfield prospect Isaiah Greene. With his first pro season now in the books, the 20-year-old Greene hit a very solid .289/.421/.368 over 191 plate appearances…
…for the Guardians’ rookie ball affiliate. This is another interesting branch in the Zack Wheeler/Yankees multiverse, as Greene was part of the four-player package (along with Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez, and prospect Josh Wolf) sent to the Guardians in exchange for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco — a blockbuster trade completed exactly one year ago today. While Greene wasn’t the centerpiece of that deal from Cleveland’s perspective, it could be that the two sides might have agreed on another prospect as the fourth player. Or, maybe that one little change makes the whole trade fall apart, and Cleveland could have opted for another team’s offer for Lindor and/or Carrasco.
Quick Hits: International Signings, Astros, Watson, Nationals
Though much of the offseason baseball calendar has been shuttered by the lockout, the next international signing period will still open as scheduled on January 15. This will technically be the 2021-22 signing window, as both this upcoming signing period and last year’s period were pushed back from their normal July 2 date due to the pandemic. Since many of the eligible international players long ago entered into unofficial agreements with their future teams, there isn’t much mystery about the landing spots or even the signing bonuses for these top amateur. As such, Baseball America’s Ben Badler is able to rank the top 50 players in the market by their expected signing bonuses in his preview of the 2021-22 int’l market.
Cuban outfielder Cristian Vaquero leads the way, as the 16-year-old has already been linked to the Nationals. The 16-year-old is a bit of a work in progress at the plate, as Badler notes that Vaquero only somewhat recently became a switch-hitter rather than a pure left-handed hitter, though he does swing well from the left side. As for glovework, Vaquero is “a dynamic center fielder with plus speed, a strong arm and good defensive instincts for his age.”
More from around baseball…
- “I think bringing back [Justin] Verlander is probably going to go down as the Astros’ biggest move of the offseason,” The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan writes as part of a reader mailbag. The exception might be if a notable remaining free agent was open to the type of short-term, high-average-annual-value contract the Astros seemingly prefer, yet barring such a move, it doesn’t seem like Houston would pivot towards a longer-term deal. To that same end, this would seemingly indicate that the Astros won’t pursue Trevor Story or a reunion with Carlos Correa, and instead head into 2022 entrusting rookie Jeremy Pena with at least a share of the regular shortstop job. Though there’s some obvious risk involved, Kaplan notes that the Astros tried this same tactic last season when George Springer left in free agency, and the club found adequate in-house center field replacements in Myles Straw, Chas McCormick, and Jake Meyers (Houston even had enough depth at the position to deal Straw at the trade deadline). The Astros could acquire a lower-tier veteran shortstop to provide some extra backing for Pena and utilityman Aledmys Diaz.
- The Nationals have spent the last several months looking to overhaul their player development practices, and they went in-house to elevate De Jon Watson to the role of director of the player development department. In a two-part interview with The Athletic’s Maria Torres (part one, part two), Watson discusses the many steps both already made and in the works, plus he also shares his thought on some of the Nats’ most interesting prospects.
Athletics Expected To Hire Brad Ausmus As Bench Coach
The Athletics’ search for a new bench coach appears to be over, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) reports that Brad Ausmus is expected to land the job. It will be Ausmus’ first on-field job since he was fired as manager of the Angels following the 2019 season.
The 52-year-old Ausmus has been linked to several other managerial positions since leaving Anaheim, interviewing with the Padres, Astros, and (most recently) the Mets about their openings in the dugout. This also marks the first actual coaching job of Ausmus’ career, as he worked as a special assistant with the Padres in between the end of his playing career and his hiring as the Tigers’ manager in November 2013. Ausmus then worked another special assistant job for a season in the Angels’ front office before taking over their managerial position.
Now paired alongside newly-hired Oakland skipper Mark Kotsay, Ausmus will provide a veteran voice as Kotsay embarks on his first gig as a big-league manager. Ausmus has 808 games (386-422) and five seasons under his belt managing Detroit and Los Angeles, highlighted by an AL Central crown with the Tigers in 2014.
When the A’s let Bob Melvin take the Padres’ manager job, it also led to the departure of former bench coach Ryan Christenson, who followed Melvin to San Diego. Kotsay and now Ausmus will fill those two vacancies, though it remains to be seen if Oakland might yet make any other changes to the coaching staff heading into 2022.
Coaching/Organzational Notes: Beltran, Mets, Chavez, Manno
When the Padres were putting together their new coaching staff this winter, the club had some talks with Carlos Beltran about a possible job, The New York Post’s Ken Davidoff reports. “The talks never advanced to anything serious,” either on the coaching front, or towards Beltran’s preference for an advisory position within the front office (similar to the role Beltran held with the Yankees in 2019). Beltran has yet to work in any official baseball capacity since the Mets abruptly fired him as manager in January 2020, following the revelations of Beltran’s involvement in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.
San Diego is the first team known to explore hiring Beltran for any position, which does perhaps present a bit of a icebreaker towards his possible return with some team, though Davidoff opines that it doesn’t seem Beltran has interest in coaching. That could be an obstacle if Beltran eventually wants to get back into managing, considering that Beltran has still never officially managed or coached at any level of pro ball; the Mets fired him before he ever led the dugout for a single game. It remains to be seen exactly what Beltran’s next step might be, as Davidoff notes that the longtime star outfielder has moved his family back to Puerto Rico, and Beltran has the financial security “to be selective in his return — or to simply never return” if he so chooses.
More notes from the coaching and organizational ranks…
- Earlier this week, Deesha Thosar of The New York Daily News reported that the Mets were lining up “an exciting, headline-grabbing hire” as their next bench coach. In her latest update, Thosar reports that Eric Chavez was that planned major name, as the Mets talked with the longtime A’s star about the bench coaching role before eventually settling on Chavez as the team’s new hitting coach. As one might expect, hiring Chavez involved “a tricky negotiation process with the Yankees,” considering the Yankees only just hired Chavez as their assistant hitting coach in December.
- In regards to the bench coach role, the Mets are now aiming towards hiring “a younger, analytics-driven individual,” Thosar reports. It will make for an interesting complement to veteran manager Buck Showalter, providing something of an old school/new school approach between Showalter and his next chief lieutenant. Reds game planning/outfield coach Jeff Pickler is one of the names under consideration for the Mets’ bench coach job, according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link).
- Reds scout Bruce Manno is retiring after close to 45 years in pro baseball, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link). Manno has been a familiar face in many front offices over the years, working with the Blue Jays, Brewers, Orioles, Cardinals, Braves, and Reds in various capacities, including working as the Cards’ director of player development during the club’s 2006 World Series season. Manno worked as an assistant GM with both the Brewers (1987-94) and Braves (2007-14), and his time in Atlanta helped pave the way towards their 2021 title. Freddie Freeman was drafted, developed, and extended during Manno’s tenure, and Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies joined the organization on their initial amateur contracts. (Manno discussed the Acuna/Albies deals with David O’Brien of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution back in 2018, with Manno praising the work of then-director of international scouting Johnny Almarez). We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Manno on a fine career, and we wish him the best in his retirement.
Dodgers To Sign Eddy Alvarez
The Dodgers have signed infielder Eddy Alvarez, as announced by Alvarez himself on his Instagram page. Due to the lockout, Alvarez’s contract must be a minor league deal, and he was eligible to sign since was already a minor league free agent at the start of the offseason.
Alvarez has already carved out a unique niche for himself in sports history as one of just six athletes to win medals in different sports at both the Summer and Winter Olympics. Alvarez won a silver medal as part of the Team USA baseball team this past summer in Tokyo, and he previously won a silver medal as part of the U.S. 5000m relay speed-skating team at the 2014 Winter Games in Sochi.
The Miami native returned to baseball following the end of his speed-skating career, and he spent five seasons in the White Sox farm system before joining his hometown Marlins prior to the 2019 season. Alvarez made it to the Show in each of the last two seasons, and he has a .188/.287/.287 slash line over 115 big league plate appearances with the Marlins.
Alvarez turns 32 later this month, and while he has had some hitting success at the Triple-A level, the age gap compared to other minor leaguers (not to mention the livelier ball used across Triple-A baseball in 2019) might explain his strong numbers. That said, a .279/.377/.447 slash line in 929 Triple-A plate appearances is no small feat, so it tracks that the Dodgers would want to take a look at Alvarez in Spring Training. He fits the Dodgers’ preferred model of versatile players, as Alvarez has quite a bit of experience as a second baseman, third baseman, and shortstop during his pro career.
Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts
Now that the new year is upon us, it could also conceivably be the last year for several managers or lead front office executives (i.e. president of baseball operations, general manager, chief baseball officer, or whatever title a club bestows upon its top baseball decision-maker) in their current jobs if their teams don’t enjoy some success in 2022. With this in mind, here is the list of team personnel facing particular pressure — the managers and top execs who are entering the last guaranteed year of their contracts.
This list is by no means exhaustive. Firstly, some clubs don’t publicly disclose specifics of management contracts, or even whether or not an employee has signed an extension until weeks or months after the fact. It could be that some of the names mentioned are already locked up beyond 2022, or perhaps have already signed extensions in the last few weeks that won’t be made official until after the lockout. While transactions involving Major League players are prohibited during the lockout, teams are free to proceed with normal business involving team personnel, so some club might look to handle other internal matters in advance of the transactional avalanche that will come when the lockout finally ends.
Second of all, any number of factors beyond just contract status can influence an employee’s job status, and sometimes on-field success isn’t enough (just ask former Cardinals skipper Mike Shildt). However, extra years on a contract is usually the simplest way to gauge just how much leeway a manager or front office boss has, barring something unforeseen. It’s probably safe to assume that most or all of the names listed wouldn’t mind a little extra job security, if for no other reason than to avoid a season of media questions about their future, or the perception of any “lame duck” status from their own players or staff.
Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contracts. Onto the list…
Angels: Owner Arte Moreno is a huge Joe Maddon fan, but since bringing Maddon back to the organization on a three-year, $12MM contract, the Halos have recorded two losing seasons. In fairness to Maddon, he has rarely gotten to deploy an Angels roster at the peak of its potential, as Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Shohei Ohtani (who barely pitched in 2020) have been injured or limited for large chunks of Maddon’s tenure. Since the veteran skipper turns 68 in February, there might also be some question about just how much longer Maddon himself wants to keep up with the grind of a regular-season schedule, especially after the challenges of managing a team through the pandemic. With the clock ticking on Ohtani’s team control and Trout’s prime, another losing season might inspire some changes in Anaheim.
Astros: Back in November, Dusty Baker received a one-year contract extension that takes the veteran skipper through the 2022 campaign. It isn’t the type of job security you’d expect for a manager who just took his team to a World Series appearance, but Houston appears content to go year-to-year with Baker, perhaps owing to his age (Baker turns 73 in June).
Athletics: Billy Beane has been running Oakland’s front office since 1997, and while the exact length of his current contract isn’t known, it is probably safe to assume Beane will have his job as long as he wishes. Beane withdrew his name from consideration from the Mets’ search when New York showed interest in Beane’s services this past fall, and for now, it seems as though he and GM David Forst are preparing to lead the A’s through yet another spin of the payroll-cutting “cycle” so familiar to Oakland fans. Since Beane also owns a minority share of the team, there would be an added layer of complication for the A’s in removing Beane if they did decide to make a change.
Blue Jays: Manager Charlie Montoyo was initially signed to a three-year deal with a club option for 2022, and the Jays exercised that option last March. The club might have been taking a bit of a wait-and-see approach by not negotiating any more additional years with Montoyo, but since Toronto won 91 games last season, Montoyo would now seem like a prime candidate for a longer-term deal. Montoyo has won praise both for the Blue Jays’ success over the last two seasons, and his steady leadership over a difficult period, with the pandemic forcing the Jays to play “home” games in Buffalo and Dunedin before finally returning to Toronto last July.
Brewers: David Stearns’ contract has been the subject of great speculation in recent months, as the Mets were focused on poaching the president of baseball operations away from Milwaukee. With Billy Eppler now inked to a four-year contract as the Mets’ new GM, it could be that Amazins could be moving away from Stearns, but several other teams might have interest if Stearns is indeed available anytime soon. The exact length or nature of Stearns’ contract isn’t known, as 2022 might be his last guaranteed year, but there may be a vesting option of some type in place that would keep Stearns with the Brew Crew through the 2023 season. For his own part, Stearns has said that he is happy with the Brewers, and owner Mark Attanasio obviously covets his PBO, as Attanasio has rejected all overtures from the Mets and other teams to interview Stearns. There seems to be plenty of leverage on Stearns’ part to either work out another extension with the Brewers, or perhaps wait out the remainder of his deal in Milwaukee and then test the market for a new challenge.
Cubs: 2022 is the last guaranteed year of David Ross’ contract, though the Cubs have a club option for 2023. It has been a tumultuous two years to begin Ross’ managerial career, between the pandemic, a first-place NL Central finish in 2020, and then a 91-loss season in 2021 after the Cubs went all-in on a rebuild. However, the acquisitions of Marcus Stroman and Wade Miley are signs that Chicago is looking to compete next season, leaving Ross with the twin challenges of mentoring young talent and also winning some ballgames. Given the long relationship between Ross and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, it doesn’t seem like Ross’ job is in much jeopardy, and an extension (even if just an early call on that 2023 option) wouldn’t be a shock.
Diamondbacks: Manager Torey Lovullo spent much of the 2021 season as a lame duck before signing an extension in September that covers 2022 and also provides the D’Backs with a club option for 2023. Given how poorly the Diamondbacks have played over the last two seasons, this new deal gives the Snakes some flexibility to move on from Lovullo next fall, but obviously Lovullo wasn’t considered the reason for the team’s struggles. There is also some uncertainty about Mike Hazen’s contract status, as the GM signed new multi-year contract of undisclosed length back in 2019, extending Hazen beyond 2020 (the endpoint of his original deal). If Hazen’s contract is only guaranteed through 2022 and Arizona has another rough season next year, ownership might opt to replace both Hazen and Lovullo and start fresh.
Dodgers: 2022 is Dave Roberts’ last year under contract, as his current deal doesn’t contain any team options. While Roberts’ postseason decision-making has sometimes been called into question by Los Angeles fans, he hardly bears sole responsibility, and it is also hard to argue with Roberts’ track record — a 542-329 record and a World Series title since taking the managerial job in November 2015. There hasn’t been any indication that the Dodgers are dissatisfied with Roberts’ work, so another extension could be in the pipeline.
Guardians: While Terry Francona isn’t under contract beyond 2022, but team owner Paul Dolan has said that “I feel like we’re now in a situation where he’s going to be here until he decides not to manage.” This puts the ball squarely in Francona’s court, as the veteran manager plans to return at least through next season after health problems limited his participation in both 2020 and 2021. Also, the contract details of president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti aren’t publicly known, but there hasn’t been any indication that Dolan is looking move on from the longtime executive.
Marlins: Don Mattingly’s 2022 club option was picked up over the summer, putting “Donnie Baseball” in line for what will be his seventh season managing the Fish. Much of that time has been spent overseeing a rebuilding team, but with Miami reaching the postseason in 2020 and now making some aggressive offseason moves, Mattingly and his staff will be facing some higher expectations. The Marlins could opt to let at least some of the season play out before deciding on Mattingly’s future, or if they’re confident that Mattingly is the one to lead the Fish into an era of winning baseball, they could have some talks about a longer-term deal this spring.
Orioles: Executive VP/general manager Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde are each entering their fourth season with the team. Hyde signed an extension last year that covers at least the 2022 season, while the initial length of Elias’ contract wasn’t known. Even if 2022 is the last season of Elias’ deal, it doesn’t seem like Orioles ownership would cut him loose before the results of the club’s extensive rebuild have been at all realized. The same could be said for Hyde, though it wouldn’t be the first time a rebuilding team has employed one manager to shepherd it through the tough years, and then hired another skipper when the club began to turn the corner towards contention.
Phillies: Joe Girardi is now entering the last guaranteed season of his initial three-year contract, and the Phillies hold a club option on the former World Series-winning manager for 2023. An 82-80 record represented Philadelphia’s first winning season since 2011, though it was still an underwhelming result for a team heavy in high-priced stars. Girardi himself hasn’t received much too much blame (at least by Philadelphia standards) for the Phils’ lack of success, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is on record as saying that Girardi “did a good job for us” last year. There are some parallels to Maddon’s situation, as both he and Girardi are veteran skippers under win-now pressure for big-market teams, except Girardi doesn’t have the longstanding ties to Phillies ownership as Maddon does in Anaheim. With the club option in mind, the Phils might see what 2022 entails before deciding on an extension for Girardi.
Pirates: This is a speculative entry, since the terms of Derek Shelton’s deal weren’t released when he was hired as Pittsburgh’s manager in November 2019. If Shelton was given a three-year contract (a pretty standard pact for a first-time manager), he’d now be entering his last guaranteed year. Since the Pirates are still rebuilding, Shelton isn’t under much pressure to start winning games immediately, so it doesn’t seem at this point like his job is in any danger.
Rangers: Another speculative case, as president of baseball operations Jon Daniels signed a contract extension back in June 2018, lengthening a deal that was set to expire at the end of the 2018 campaign. If that extension happened to be a four-year pact, then, Daniels has only one year remaining. While Daniels has spent much of his most recent contract rebuilding the roster, this winter’s massive spending splurge is a clear sign that Texas is ready to start winning. One would guess that ownership wouldn’t sign off on hundreds of millions in player contracts if they had any misgivings about keeping Daniels around, so another extension wouldn’t be a surprise. Daniels is quietly one of baseball’s longest-tenured front office bosses, as he has been running the Rangers’ baseball ops department since October 2005, when he was only 28 years old.
Rockies: Bud Black is entering his sixth and what might be his final year as Rockies manager, as his three-year contract expires at season’s end. New GM Bill Schmidt has indicated that the team might explore a new deal with Black, and since Schmidt is a longtime member of Colorado’s front office, the Rockies might not have the disconnect that sometimes exists between an incumbent skipper and a new front office boss who wants their own hire running the dugout. Even though owner Dick Monfort is known for his loyalty to familiar employees, managers don’t have quite as much slack — both Walt Weiss and Jim Tracy (Black’s predecessors) resigned from the Rockies’ managerial post after four seasons apiece.
Royals: Like Shelton, Mike Matheny was also hired following the 2019 season, so this would be the final guaranteed year of Matheny’s deal if he signed a three-year term. That said, Matheny might have gotten a longer deal, owing to his past experience as manager of the Cardinals, and due to his standing as something of a manager-in-waiting in Kansas City with Ned Yost on the verge of retirement. The Royals were aggressive last winter but managed only a 74-88 record in 2021, and if the team again doesn’t take a step forward, there could be some whispers about whether or not Matheny is the right choice for the manager’s job. Then again, president of baseball operations Dayton Moore has traditionally been big on institutional loyalty, so Matheny’s job isn’t necessarily on the line if the Royals don’t at least crack the .500 mark.
Twins: Manager Rocco Baldelli received a four-year contract with multiple club options when he was hired following the 2018 season, so Baldelli is now entering his final guaranteed year. The existence of those club options puts Baldelli under team control through at least 2024, yet while Baldelli isn’t a true lame duck, he does face some pressure in getting the Twins on track following a very disappointing season. If the Twins underachieve again, Baldelli might be on the hot seat, though he did lead Minnesota to the postseason in his first two years as skipper.
White Sox: Another team that doesn’t publicize management contracts, both executive VP Kenny Williams and GM Rick Hahn signed extensions in 2017 of unspecified length. Since that time, the duo has overseen a rebuild and a payroll increase that has thus far resulted in playoff appearances in both 2020 and 2021, though the White Sox have yet to win a series. Though owner Jerry Reinsdorf is definitely aiming to capture another championship, it seems like it would take a major collapse for him to think about replacing Williams or Hahn, who have each been with the franchise for decades. Depending on their contractual status, Williams and Hahn could even be in line for extensions, if such deals haven’t already quieted been inked.
Yankees: As any Bronx fan can tell you, the Yankees have gone 12 seasons without as much as an AL pennant, though the club has reached the playoffs nine times in that span and always posted winning records. Despite this relative title drought by Yankees standards, owner Hal Steinbrenner appears satisfied with the work done by longtime GM Brian Cashman, and there doesn’t appear to be much chance of a front office change. It may be quite a while before we hear whether or not Cashman is officially staying, as several of his contracts have been settled either around the end of the season, or sometimes well into the offseason. Cashman’s last deal (a five-year, $25MM contract covering the 2018-22 campaigns) wasn’t fully put into place until December 2017.
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NPB’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks To Sign Tyler Chatwood
The Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks have reached a deal with right-hander Tyler Chatwood, according to a Sports Hochi report (Japanese language link). Chatwood elected free agency after finishing the 2021 season on a minor league contract with the Giants.
After some up-and-down years with the Cubs, Chatwood seemed to be opening a new chapter in his career as a full-time relief pitcher when he signed a one-year, $3MM deal with the Blue Jays last winter. Chatwood got off to a good start with the Jays but battled some serious control issues as the year went on, leading Toronto to designate the righty for assignment and then release him in August. Chatwood caught on with the Giants on a minor league deal but only saw four innings of MLB action with San Francisco.
As a whole, Chatwood posted a 5.63 ERA over 32 innings in 2021, with a respectable 26.2% strikeout rate undermined by an ugly 14.5% walk rate. Command has been a problem for Chatwood during a large portion of his 10-year Major League career, reaching a nadir when he posted a 19.5% walk rate over 103 2/3 frames with the Cubs in 2018.
The move to Japan provides a fresh start for Chatwood as he enters his age-32 season, and it will be interesting to observe whether he works out of the Hawks’ bullpen, or if he might try to re-establish himself as a starting pitcher. At least trying to work as a starter might help raise his stock for MLB teams in the future, giving any interested clubs the option of using Chatwood as a starter, reliever, or long man.
Chatwood joins Freddy Galvis and Colin Rea as familiar big leaguers joining the Hawks this winter. Fukuoka is coming off a rare losing season after dominating Nippon Professional Baseball over the last decade — the Hawks won the Japan Series seven times between 2011-2020, including four straight titles from 2017-20.
