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Latest On Red Sox Pitching Targets
The Red Sox are known to be looking for rotation help this winter, and the club has “had varying degrees of contact with virtually all of the top starters on the market,” The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes. This includes reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray, who hadn’t previously been linked to the Sox on the rumor mill, though it naturally stands to reason that the Red Sox would have interest in such a prominent arm.
Given the wide net the Sox are casting in their pitching search, it isn’t known if Ray is necessarily at the top of Boston’s list of potential targets. Signing Ray would come at a double cost — one of the biggest contracts given to any free agent this offseason, as well as a penalty of $500K reduction from Boston’s international draft pool and a second-round draft pick, since Ray rejected the Blue Jays’ qualifying offer.
The Red Sox might be willing to accept those penalties to sign a top-tier starter like Ray, however, as Speier notes that the team also had interest in another QO free agent in Justin Verlander. “Talks never advanced” too far between the two sides before Verlander agreed to return to Houston on a two-year, $50MM pact, but if the Red Sox were open to surrendering a pick for a shorter-term addition like Verlander, it would stand to reason that they’d also be open to giving up a pick to add Ray on a longer-term commitment. It should be noted that the Sox have some extra draft capital to work with next summer, as since Eduardo Rodriguez rejected Boston’s qualifying offer and then agreed to a deal with the Tigers, the Red Sox will receive an extra selection between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round.
As for other now-signed free agent hurlers, Speier writes that the Red Sox were one of the teams bidding on Andrew Heaney, and the left-hander was given a one-year offer “competitive with the $8.5MM he signed for with the Dodgers.” Speier also notes that the Red Sox didn’t have interest in Noah Syndergaard, which runs contrary to a report from The New York Post’s Joel Sherman earlier this week that suggested Boston made an “aggressive” offer to Syndergaard before the righty signed with the Angels.
Steven Matz is a pitcher known to be of interest to the Red Sox, and it is possible Matz might decide on his next team relatively quickly. According to Speier, Matz would prefer to have an agreement in place prior to the expiration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1, and the signing freeze that would come with a potential lockout on December 2. Matz is hoping to get a deal done by Thanksgiving, and given the number of teams already known to have checked in on the southpaw, it certainly seems plausible that a deal could be reached this week. Besides the Red Sox, Matz has been linked to the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Angels, plus the Blue Jays have continued to explore re-signing Matz for a longer term in Toronto.
Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics
After four winning seasons, the window may now be closed for the Athletics, as the team seems intent on cutting payroll and trading several key players.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Elvis Andrus, SS: $14MM through 2022, Rangers paying $7.25MM of salary ($15MM club option for 2023 becomes guaranteed if Andrus has 550 plate appearances in 2022)
- Stephen Piscotty, OF: $8.25MM in 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2023)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Sean Manaea – $10.2MM
- Chris Bassitt – $8.8MM
- Chad Pinder – $2.8MM
- Matt Chapman – $9.5MM
- Matt Olson – $12.0MM
- Tony Kemp – $2.2MM
- Frankie Montas – $5.2MM
- Lou Trivino – $2.9MM
- Deolis Guerra – $900K
- Ramon Laureano – $2.8MM
- Non-tender candidates: Pinder, Guerra
Option Decisions
- Jake Diekman, RP: Received $750K buyout after Athletics declined $4MM club option for 2022
- Andrew Chafin, RP: Declined his end of a $5.25MM mutual option for 2022 (received $500K buyout)
Free Agents
- Chafin, Diekman, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, Yusmeiro Petit, Jed Lowrie, Sergio Romo, Josh Harrison, Khris Davis, Mitch Moreland, Yan Gomes, Mike Fiers, Trevor Rosenthal, Burch Smith, Pete Kozma, Michael Feliz
With such a large and increasingly expensive arbitration class on the horizon, 2021 seemed like a make-or-break year for this version of the Athletics, who looked increasingly like an all-in team as the season proceeded. The A’s made big trade deadline moves for Starling Marte, Josh Harrison, Andrew Chafin, and Yan Gomes to help down the stretch but it wasn’t enough, as Oakland finished 86-76 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
The disappointment is palpable among A’s fans, who already face the uncertainty of whether or not their team will even still be in Oakland in a few years’ time, and now are looking at yet another step-back or reload of the roster. As general manager David Forst plainly put it, “This is the cycle for the A’s. We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.”
Obligatory note: we aren’t talking enormous payroll numbers here. While the Athletics do have a big arbitration class, those costs are belied by the fact that Elvis Andrus and Stephen Piscotty represent the club’s only guaranteed salary commitments. Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource project Oakland’s current 2022 payroll to sit in the range of roughly $81.2MM to $85.36MM, which would still represent one of the lower payrolls of any team in baseball. Just standing pat in this range would make it tricky for the A’s to make any necessary upgrades, but executive vice president Billy Beane and Forst have done more with less in the past, so a case can certainly be made that Athletics owner John Fisher could or should spend enough to allow one more season with this core group of players.
And yet, that is not how Fisher (or any Athletics ownership group of the last 25 years) operates. The only question now is just how much payroll will be slashed, and the first herald of the spending cuts came when longtime manager Bob Melvin was allowed to interview with the Padres and ultimately take San Diego’s managerial job. Melvin was still under contract for the 2022 season, but Oakland let Melvin go without any compensation, seemingly just to get Melvin’s reported $4MM salary off the books. There hasn’t yet been much news about who the Athletics might yet hire as Melvin’s replacement, and under the circumstances, it is probably best to expect a first-time manager more willing to take a lesser salary.
Some reports suggest the A’s might be aiming to spend as little as $50MM on player salaries in 2022, and if such a drop is coming, there is no shortage of potential sell-off moves available to the team. Since extensions now seem to be out of the question, impending free agents like Chris Bassitt and Sean Manaea are the likeliest to go. Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, and Frankie Montas are only controlled through 2023, and Olson’s projected $12MM arbitration salary would represent the biggest outlay on the Athletics’ books, so the All-Star first baseman may have already played his last game for Oakland.
If there is a silver lining to this situation for Athletics fans, past history has shown that the team isn’t likely to deal all five of these players. Beane has never taken the A’s through a total rebuild over his 24 years running the front office, so it doesn’t seem likely that he would embark on such a course now (with the caveat that the A’s may still be feeling pandemic-related revenue losses). If we’re targeting which A’s players are the likeliest to be traded, it is also worth guessing which may still be on the roster come Opening Day. Montas, for instance, is probably the least likely of the “big five” members of the arbitration class to be moved, if for no other reason than he is less expensive that Manaea and Bassitt, and Oakland isn’t likely to move all three of its top starters.
The other optimistic slant on the Athletics’ winter is that Beane and Forst have walked this road before and have consistently been able to get the A’s back on track within a couple of years, at most. As difficult as it will be to replace some of the names likely to leave Oakland within the next few months, it isn’t totally out of the question that the A’s can still be competitive in 2022, if Beane/Forst can acquire some MLB-ready younger players who break out on their new team.
For two years of a power-hitting, Gold Glove first baseman like Olson, for instance, the A’s can justifiably ask for multiple top prospects and a player off a trade partner’s big league roster that could help the Athletics in 2022. Someone like the Yankees’ Luke Voit makes for a reasonable example — Olson would be taking over first base anyway — and the Yankees have already been linked to Olson. (Of course, the A’s might not be interested in Voit and his salary if they aren’t planning to try to contend next year.) The A’s have often focused on MLB-ready starters in major trades as well, which is how they came to acquire Bassitt and Montas in the first place.
The Yankees, to be clear, are just one example. Any of the Brewers, Guardians, Padres, Red Sox, Mariners, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies or Braves could make sense for an Olson trade, perhaps in some cases hinging on other roster moves at first base and/or whether National League teams will have a DH in 2022.
Olson is valuable enough that the Athletics shouldn’t dilute their potential trade return by attaching an undesirable contract (i.e. Piscotty or Andrus) to a possible trade package, yet the club might explore this tactic with other trade chips at some point in the winter. For instance, if Olson and Manaea are dealt to get some new young talent in the pipeline, the A’s could go into full salary dump mode and package something like Bassitt and Piscotty together to a team willing to absorb Piscotty’s salary in order to ultimately give up lesser prospects in the deal. As much as it would hurt to give up any of the “big five” for a miminal return, deploying this strategy in one trade would sting less if Oakland has already banked some prospects in earlier trades. Also, moving Piscotty or Andrus might free up enough payroll to spare the A’s from having to make a subsequent trade of a Chapman or a Montas.
Identifying specific target areas for the 2022 A’s is a little difficult at the moment, considering we don’t yet known the breadth of the club’s fire sale. Third base, for example, could either be a set position or a big vacancy depending on whether Chapman stays or goes. To this end, Chad Pinder might be a useful piece to keep in his final year of arbitration eligibility, since Pinder’s versatility at least gives the A’s some flexibility in how they address various positions.
It is safe to call outfield help a must, since Marte and Mark Canha are both free agents. Ramon Laureano is the lone starter remaining and will return in center field, though he’ll miss the first 27 games of 2022 to complete the remainder of his 80-game PED suspension. Piscotty is penciled into the right field job at the moment, but after three seasons of injuries and replacement-level play, it is difficult to know what expect from him next year.
Among internal options, Seth Brown and Tony Kemp are the most probable candidates to see time in the corner outfield slots. However, both could also be needed at other positions (Kemp at second base, Brown at first base or DH), thus opening the door for any of Luis Barrera, Skye Bolt, Cody Thomas, or Buddy Reed to earn some outfield playing time. A low-cost veteran could be added to that group, yet this is another decision that could hinge on how much emphasis the Athletics are putting on 2022. If the A’s are taking a full step back from a run at the playoffs, the team might decide to just let the youngsters play and see who emerges as an MLB-capable player.
Assuming Kemp isn’t traded, shortstop prospect Nick Allen’s development could factor into Kemp’s primary position in the lineup. Allen is expected to make his Major League debut in 2022 and is already more than ready from a defensive perspective, so his longer-term role is Oakland’s shortstop of the future. With Andrus at shortstop for one more year, the A’s could break Allen in as a second baseman, thus freeing up Kemp to see more time in left field.
Jed Lowrie is one of the Oakland free agents who might be a realistic candidate to be re-signed, and thus he could also be part of the infield picture. After two injury-ruined seasons with the Mets, Lowrie returned to the A’s and played in 139 games last season, providing around league-average offense over 512 plate appearances. Heading into his age-38 season, Lowrie may have a tough time competing with younger utility infield types on the free agent market, and the A’s could welcome back a familiar veteran to provide leadership through what might be a transitional year.
James Kaprielian and Cole Irvin could end up being the top two starters in the Oakland rotation depending on what happens with Manaea, Bassitt, and Montas. Since it seems quite likely at least one of that trio will be dealt, the Athletics will need some starters. Daulton Jefferies probably has the inside track on one spot and A.J. Puk another if he can stay healthy, which is a big if considering all of the injuries Puk has already faced in his short career.
Any of Grant Holmes, Brian Howard or Paul Blackburn will be in competition for another starting role, but this is certainly an area where the A’s will have to land some kind of inexpensive veteran depth, just to cover any possible innings. It also isn’t exactly a surprise to say that the Athletics will look to acquire some MLB-ready starting pitching in any trades since every team is always looking for more arms, yet Oakland’s need is particularly strong considering how many of their current starters could be traded.
Chafin declined his half of a mutual option and Jake Diekman’s club option wasn’t exercised, so those two join Sergio Romo and Yusmeiro Petit as prominent A’s relievers now set for free agency. Beane and Forst have traditionally been pretty aggressive in adding to their bullpens over the years, though that strategy might not be optimal in a winter of budget cutbacks (and with the Trevor Rosenthal signing still lingering as the major misfire of last year’s offseason).
The Athletics could at least offer opportunity to any free agent relievers, as the A’s head into 2022 with Lou Trivino penciled in as closer even if he had trouble sticking in the role last year. In the event of a lockout related to collective bargaining talks, the subsequent roster freeze could lead to a flood of relievers hitting the market when (if?) the freeze is lifted just prior to or during Spring Training. A surplus of available relievers could help Oakland score a bargain signing or two — particularly since the A’s could reasonably offer save chances and a spacious home park to any potential targets looking to reestablish value.
If the front office succeeds in landing some intriguing prospects over the winter, A’s fans may feel a bit better about the team’s overall direction by Opening Day. Unfortunately, getting to whatever promising longer-term future awaits will require some more immediate pain, as the Athletics’ “cycle” of roster construction and destruction never stops spinning. With the Astros reinforcing their pennant-winning squad and the Mariners, Angels, and Rangers all looking to make substantial upgrades this offseason, the Athletics’ first goal may be figuring out just how to avoid a last-place finish.
MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read the transcript of tonight’s live baseball chat
Marlins Acquire Louis Head From Rays
The Marlins have acquired right-hander Louis Head from the Rays in exchange for a player to be named later or cash considerations. Miami has designated outfielder Brian Miller for assignment in a corresponding move to create roster space.
Head made his MLB debut in 2021 and impressed in terms of bottom-line numbers, posting a 2.31 ERA over 35 innings out of Tampa’s bullpen (with two “starts” but as an opener). Advanced metrics like a 4.03 SIERA and 23.9% strikeout rate weren’t as impressive and Head did benefit from a .216 BABIP, but he also did a very good job of limiting hard contact.
Perhaps moreso than his solid numbers, Head might be the poster child for the Rays’ penchant for shuttling pitchers back and forth from Triple-A. Head was called up and sent down a whopping 12 times last season, as the Rays constantly looked to move fresh arms in and out of their bullpen.
Head turns 32 in April, and was originally an 18th-round draft pick for Cleveland in 2012. After eight seasons in the minors with the Guardians and Dodgers, Head was on the verge of leaving baseball entirely before catching on with the Rays this past offseason. He’ll now go to Miami with presumably a better chance of sticking in the majors for a slightly more extended period of time, adding another live arm to a Marlins bullpen that was quietly pretty solid in 2021.
From the Rays’ perspective, they have the relief depth on paper to account for Head’s departure, and Tampa now also opens up another 40-man roster spot before Friday’s deadline to set rosters in advance of the Rule 5 draft. The Rays made another roster clearance-type of deal yesterday, sending utility infielder Mike Brosseau to the Brewers.
Miller also made his Major League debut this past season, receiving 11 plate appearances over five games. Miller was selected 36th overall in the 2017 draft, but a modest .284/.338/.360 slash line over 1759 PA in the Marlins’ system kept him from truly establishing himself as a part of the team’s future. Miller does boast plenty of speed, which has led to 119 stolen bases out of 155 chances and the defensive versatility to handle any of the three outfield positions.
NPB’s Hiroshima Carp Sign Nik Turley
The Hiroshima Carp of Nippon Professional Baseball signed left-hander Nik Turley to a one-year contract last week, the team announced. Turley will receive 73 million yen plus incentives (roughly $641K) as well as a signing bonus of 11 million yen (a little under $97K).
Turley spent the 2021 season pitching for the White Sox Triple-A affiliate in Charlotte, posting a 5.02 ERA and 33.1% strikeout rate over 43 relief innings. Turley’s work was hampered by an 11.6% walk rate, though of the 24 earned runs Turley allowed over his 43 appearances, 15 of those runs were surrendered over just four very rough games. The Sox never called Turley up to the majors at any point during the year, and the southpaw elected to become a free agent in October.
The 32-year-old has been pitching long enough that his pro career began in a draft round that no longer exists, as Turley was a 50th-round pick for the Yankees way back in 2008. Turley has tossed 39 1/3 innings (with a career 7.78 ERA) at the Major League level, with 17 2/3 frames for the Twins in 2017 and then 21 2/3 innings for the Pirates in 2020. In between those two seasons, Turley missed time due to an 80-game PED suspension, and then recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Turley’s 12 pro seasons have taken him to six different MLB organizations and a brief stint in indy ball, and he’ll now head to Japan for a new chapter of his career. Despite his lack of big league success, Turley has consistently drawn interest due to his high spin rates on his curveball and four-seamer, and his strikeout rates have increased as he has gradually transitioned from starting pitching to bullpen work. It isn’t out of the question that Turley could see some starting work again with the Carp, depending on how the club intends to use him.
NL Notes: Gorman, Brewers, Nationals
As the Cardinals look to add more hitting this winter, Nolan Gorman could be the latest homegrown prospect to emerge at the big league level. It isn’t yet clear, however, whether or not Gorman will need more Triple-A seasoning before he makes his MLB debut, as Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Benjamin Hochman of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “From an offensive standpoint, we’re really encouraged with what we’re seeing,” Mozeliak said, also noting that Gorman looked good at second base this season after previously playing only as a third baseman.
Gorman hit .279/.333/.481 with 25 home runs over 523 cumulative plate appearances in 2021 — an .862 OPS in 195 PA for Double-A Springfield and then a .785 OPS in 328 PA for Triple-A Memphis. The 19th overall pick of the 2018 draft, Gorman’s bat looks like it provide a nice complement at second base with Tommy Edman, as Edman has provided excellent glovework but subpar offense over the last two seasons. Barring a major rookie breakout, however, Hochman doesn’t think Gorman himself will provide the offensive boost the Cards need, and Hochman wonders if moving shortstop Paul DeJong for a better hitter would be the answer.
More from around the National League…
- Speaking of adding offense in the NL Central, Brewers president of baseball operations David Stearns acknowledged his team’s need to score more runs in 2022, but he told MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and Jordan Bastian that “I think we’re likely to remain a run prevention-first team next year, where we’re built around our pitching and defense. I don’t see that changing.” With this in mind, Stearns said that while he’ll naturally listen to what other teams have to offer, “it’s really tough to trade pitching,” even though the Brew Crew have one of the sport’s deeper mix of rotation arms. Since the time of this interview, Stearns did swing one pitching-for-hitting trade, though Milwaukee sent only a single-A relief prospect (Evan Reifert) to the Rays for utility infielder Mike Brosseau.
- The Nationals have made some promotions in their research and development department, including putting longtime staffer Lee Mendelowitz in charge as the new senior director. More changes are coming, president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo told The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty, including some new faces to cover for personnel losses over the last two years (due to pandemic cutbacks and other teams poaching Nats staffers).
Pirates Designate Jose Soriano For Assignment, Select Diego Castillo
Nov 14: Soriano has cleared waivers and been returned to the Angels, per Jack Harris of the L.A. Times.
Nov 7: The Pirates announced that right-hander Jose Soriano has been designated for assignment. The move opens up a 40-man roster spot for infielder Diego Castillo, whose contract has been selected to the 40-man.
Soriano threw only 3 2/3 innings for Pittsburgh’s A-ball affiliate in Bradenton this season, as the 23-year-old had to undergo his second Tommy John surgery in as many seasons. Soriano first went under the knife in February 2020 when he was still a member of the Angels organization, but the Pirates rolled the dice and selected Soriano in last December’s Rule 5 draft.
Soriano’s latest surgery took place in mid-June, so considering the usual 13-15 month timeline for TJ recoveries and the fact that this is already Soriano’s second operation in such a brief period, it certainly doesn’t seem like he’ll see any action during the 2022 season. It’s a brutal outcome for a youngster who showed such intriguing promise when pitching in the Angels’ farm system, as Soriano drew plenty of attention thanks to his big fastball and strikeout numbers. Soriano has mostly worked as a starting pitcher, but he was seen as a potential power reliever or even a closer candidate thanks to his one-two punch of a fastball and curve, even if walks continued to be an issue.
Not to be confused with the veteran reliever of the same name, the Pirates’ Diego Castillo is a 24-year-old infielder who joined the organization from the Yankees this past July as part of the Clay Holmes trade. Castillo hadn’t hit much over his first four minor league seasons, but after the canceled 2020 minor league campaign, his bat took a big step forward in his return to action. Castillo hit .278/.355/.487 with 19 home runs in 440 total plate appearances in 2021, with those PA split over the Yankees’ Double-A team and the Pirates’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates.
Between this development at the plate and his ability to play second base, third base, and shortstop, Castillo has put himself on the radar as a candidate to reach the majors next season. As noted by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Castillo would’ve been eligible for minor league free agency if the Pirates hadn’t put him on the 40-man roster.
Quick Hits: Marte, Neris, Dominguez, Heaney, McLeod
The Marlins were known to be interested in reuniting with Starling Marte, and The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson (Twitter link) reports that the Fish have already stepped up with an offer for the free agent outfielder. Since Marte is still gathering interest from many teams, “no decision [is] imminent” on either the Marlins’ offer or whatever might be floated by another club. The 33-year-old Marte has plenty of leverage to work with as the top everyday center fielder of this year’s free agent class, though the Marlins’ early offer does indicate their laser focus on ways to upgrade their lineup.
It could be interesting to observe if the Marlins could be similarly aggressive in approaching other free agents with offers — should such an offer be floated towards a player with fewer options than Marte, Miami might be able to strike a quick deal. In Marte’s case, however, the Marlins now have to contend with such known suitors as the Yankees, Phillies, and Mets, plus any other clubs that might yet emerge. The Astros could be another team in the mix, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter) that Houston met with Marte’s agents.
More from around the league….
- The Phillies have interest in re-signing Hector Neris and the team will also tender a contract to Seranthony Dominguez, president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski told reporters (including NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury). Neris has generally pitched well over his eight seasons in Philly, though some high-profile blowups and down periods have made him an unreliable choice as closer. “We’d prefer to bring him back as a non-ninth-inning guy. That would be our hope,” Dombrowski said, and since Neris also expressed an openness to any bullpen role back in September, there would appear to be some common ground. As for Dominguez, he underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2020 and made it back to pitch one inning in the Phils’ last game of the 2021 campaign. The Phillies already opted to tender Dominguez a contract last winter in his first year of arbitration eligibility, so it stands to reason that they’d retain him now that he should be healthy to pitch. Dominguez is projected for an $800K salary in 2022.
- The Blue Jays’ interest in Andrew Heaney included “a strong offer” for the lefty’s services before Heaney signed with the Dodgers, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes. Despite a rough 2021 season, Heaney’s peripherals were intriguing enough that Toronto, Los Angeles, and at least two other teams were known to be considering a signing.
- Former Cubs senior VP Jason McLeod could be close to a new job, as McLeod tells NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmyer that “There’s three or four teams I’m talking to a little more intently [than others] about potentially joining them in an executive position. It’s still determined what the exact roles would be.” McLeod has a long association with Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer dating back to their time together in the Red Sox front office, and McLeod left the Cubs last month after a decade-long run in Wrigleyville. McLeod didn’t mention specifics about his potential suitors but he hasn’t heard from the Mets about their front office vacancy.
Details On Talks Between Freddie Freeman, Braves
“You couldn’t find a soul who believes [Freddie] Freeman won’t be returning to Atlanta,” USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes about the general consensus around the GM Meetings this week. Despite this widespread expectation that Freeman and the Braves will eventually work out a new contract, that certainty can’t be at a full 100 percent, considering that the two sides weren’t able to agree to an extension before Freeman reached free agency.
Nightengale also provides some numbers in regards to the negotiations, as Freeman and his representatives are looking for a deal in the range of six years and $200MM. That is a sizeable bump over one Atlanta offer that Freeman has already turned down, with the Braves offering $135MM over a five-year pact. Details weren’t provided on when exactly this five-year/$135MM offer was floated, whether it was a recent offer on the Braves’ part or if it came earlier in the year. Reports from back in September already indicated that some type of “gap” existed between the two sides in contract talks, and a $65MM difference would certainly qualify.
Paul Goldschmidt’s five-year, $130MM extension with the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season has long been cited as a potential comp for a new Freeman contract, since both deals involved star first baseman entering their age-32 seasons, and both players are even represented by the same agency (Excel Sports Management). This comparison point clearly stood out for the Braves, considering their offer to Freeman was only slightly above the Goldschmidt deal.
However, a case could certainly be made that Freeman is worth more than just a $5MM bump, for starters due to the simple fact that the Goldschmidt extension is over two years’ old. Freeman also has a longer track record as an Atlanta icon (whereas the Cardinals had just acquired Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks a few months’ prior) and Freeman just won the NL MVP Award in the abbreviated 2020 season. If the Braves’ offer came very recently, it seems like even more of an undervalue, considering Freeman had another big year in 2021 and then an enormous performance in the playoffs to help the Braves win the World Series.
Beyond just the dollar figure, the sixth year stands out as a potential sticking point. Committing over $32MM in average annual value to a first base-only player into his age-37 season carries its share of risk, especially for a Braves team that operates within a fairly limited payroll. Roster Resource estimates that Atlanta finished the 2021 season with $145MM in payroll expenditures, which would represent the highest number since Liberty Media bought the franchise in 2007.
Alex Anthopoulos has already said that the team will raise payroll coming off their World Series triumph, and the president of baseball operations made a point of mentioning the mutual interest between both the Braves and Freeman in continuing their relationship: “We’ve made it clear we want him to stay. He wants to stay.” Looking at Atlanta’s current payroll, however, the Braves already have over $141MM committed for 2022. Even factoring in some or most of Marcell Ozuna’s $16MM salary being reduced by suspension, Liberty Media would have to go way beyond their historical comfort zone ccommodate something in the range of a $30MM salary for Freeman, not to mention any other additions the Braves would need to fill any other roster holes.
Freeman ranked third on MLBTR’s list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and while our prediction didn’t quite hit the $200MM threshold, Freeman is projected for a six-year, $180MM contract. Freeman has proven to be enough of an elite talent that such a deal is likely to be out there for him somewhere on the open market, so the Braves may now face a bidding war to keep their longtime star in the fold.
