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Rangers Announce Roster Decisions

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The Rangers are finalizing their plans for Opening Day, as manager Chris Woodward told reporters (including Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram) about some roster decisions.  The team will select the contracts of Ian Kennedy and Matt Bush prior to the opener, and the newly-acquired Josh Sborz has also won a job in the Texas bullpen.  At first base, Nate Lowe will assume regular duties while Ronald Guzman will work as the backup first baseman and likely be in line for DH at-bats while Khris Davis and Willie Calhoun are on the injured list.

Kennedy and Bush were both signed to minor league contracts in the offseason, and the two veterans could now be the Rangers’ top options for save situations with Jose Leclerc, Joely Rodriguez, Brett Martin, and Jonathan Hernandez all ticketed to begin the season on the IL.  Sborz and Taylor Hearn might also get some looks in the ninth inning as the Rangers figure to be relatively fluid with the closer role unless one of the candidates is particularly dominant.

Once his contract is officially selected, Kennedy will lock in a $2.15MM salary for the 2021 season.  The 36-year-old joined the Rangers after five years with the Royals, with the last two seasons spent as a reliever rather than Kennedy’s customary starting pitching role.  He took well to the new assignment at first, posting an impressive 30-save campaign as Kansas City’s closer in 2019, but struggled over 14 innings last season before his season was ended by a left calf strain in late August.

Bush, meanwhile, hasn’t appeared in a Major League game since 2018 due to a pair of elbow surgeries (including a Tommy John procedure).  Texas signed Bush to a two-year minor league deal in the 2019-20 offseason to allow him to rehab throughout the 2020 campaign, with an eye towards making him available this season.  The first overall pick of the 2004 draft, all of Bush’s MLB experience has come with the Rangers, as he posted a 3.35 ERA and 23.4% strikeout rate over 137 innings out of the Texas bullpen from 2016-18, though walks became an increasing problem over Bush’s three seasons.

There wasn’t much doubt that Guzman would make the roster since he is out of options, though he’ll need to start performing quickly in order to regain a foothold as part of the Rangers’ future plans.  Guzman has hit only .230/.308/.417 with 30 home runs over 809 Major League PA, but given the relatively small sample size and Guzman’s still-young age (26), it isn’t yet out of the question that he could break out at the plate.

Wilson writes that the Rangers are leaning towards using their final remaining 26-man roster opening on a position player, but the team would need to carve out a 40-man roster spot to accommodate either Charlie Culberson or Adolis Garcia (both in camp on minor league deals).  The same would be true if Texas included an extra pitcher on the roster, with minor league signings Luis Ortiz, Hunter Wood, and Hyeon-jong Yang all candidates.

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Indians

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It’s a season of change for the Indians, who said goodbye over the offseason to a star shortstop, a rotation cornerstone, and even their team name.  One thing Cleveland is hoping to replicate, however, is a return to the playoffs, as the club is still planning to contend.

Major League Signings

  • Eddie Rosario, OF: One year, $8MM
  • Cesar Hernandez, 2B: One year, $5MM (Cleveland holds $6MM club option for 2022, no buyout)
  • Total spend: $13MM

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The offseason began in rather inauspicious fashion for the Tribe, as the team didn’t just part ways with Brad Hand, but the unusual decision was made to place the closer on waivers.  The intent was to try and save $1MM, the cost of buying out Hand’s $10MM club option — had another team claimed Hand on waivers, the Indians would have been clear of any further financial responsibilities.

As odd as it was to see a team go to such lengths over a $1MM buyout, Hand went unclaimed on waivers, so Cleveland was far from alone in practicing austerity at the beginning of the offseason.  Declining the club option was itself a notable move, as the Tribe ended up letting a three-time All-Star go for nothing rather than at least exploring the market for a trade possibility.  For comparison’s sake, the Reds got an experienced reliever (Noe Ramirez) and a prospect back in exchange for trading closer Raisel Iglesias to the Angels in December.

But, reducing spending was clearly top priority for a Cleveland team that will go into the 2021 season with somewhere in the neighborhood of roughly $49.1MM (as per Cot’s Baseball Contracts) to $52.7MM (as per Roster Resource) committed to player salaries.  Only the rebuilding Pirates are spending less on payroll than Cleveland, and beyond that, the Tribe doesn’t have a single dollar officially committed to a player for the 2022 season.

This being said, the Indians haven’t gone the way of the Pirates, Orioles, Marlins, or other teams who slashed payroll as part of a multi-year rebuild.  Cleveland intends to make another run at the AL Central this season, as evidenced by how the Francisco Lindor/Carlos Carrasco blockbuster with the Mets continued the Tribe’s established strategy of trading established stars for a package of players that can contribute both now and in the future.

Both Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario have big league experience and could help Cleveland as early as Opening Day.  Indeed, it seems like Gimenez will be the Indians’ regular shortstop, while Rosario is being eyed for something of a super-utility role, probably ticketed to see more time on the outfield grass than on the infield dirt.

Both former top-100 prospects, Gimenez is seen as a better defensive fit than Rosario at shortstop, and Gimenez’s 2020 rookie season saw him earn more and more playing time in New York.  Gimenez’s .263/.333/.398 slash line over 132 plate appearances translated to roughly league-average (101 OPS+, 104 wRC+) offensive production, so the Tribe would likely be quite pleased if Gimenez can duplicate that over a full season while providing solid glovework.  Gimenez’s numbers in the minors weren’t far beyond his modest MLB stats and he has still never played any Triple-A ball, but if he does end up needing a bit more minor league seasoning, Rosario and backup infielder Yu Chang are on hand to fill in at shortstop.

Rosario is something of the opposite story, as he established himself with the bat at the Double-A and Triple-A levels but questions have persisted about his ability to stick at shortstop.  He has played almost exclusively at short throughout his career, with just seven games in the minors as a third baseman and one appearance with the Mets last season in left field, though there were reports both two years ago and this past winter that New York was considering using Rosario in the outfield.

Interestingly, the Reds and other teams inquired about Rosario’s availability after the Indians brought him over from the Mets, but Cleveland opted to see what it has in the 25-year-old.  Rosario hasn’t come close to living up to his former top-prospect status, though he did show some glimpses of consistent hitting talent during the 2019 season.  A change of scenery and a change of position could both help to unlock this potential, and Cleveland’s outfield has been such a weak link for so many years that the Indians would undoubtedly love to see Rosario (or anyone) present themselves as a reliable regular option on the grass.

While Gimenez and Rosario have potential, it will likely be a long time before Cleveland fans forget about Lindor or Carrasco.  There was never doubt that Lindor was finally being traded this winter, as he had only one year remaining on his contract and the Tribe wasn’t prepared to meet Lindor’s $300MM+ asking price on an extension.  Since that sole year of control perhaps limited Lindor’s trade market, the Indians sweetened the deal for the Mets by including Carrasco, a beloved team leader and still a solidly effective starting pitcher (though Carrasco will begin the season on the injured list).

As frustrating as it must be for Cleveland fans to constantly see star players shipped away from Progressive Field, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have now rather extensively refurbished this roster with promising young players, several of whom could be on the verge of a 2021 breakout.  It also doesn’t hurt that the Indians still have one of baseball’s best players in Jose Ramirez (who reportedly wasn’t a trade candidate this winter), one of the game’s best pitchers in AL Cy Young Award winner Shane Bieber, and an uncanny ability to keep developing quality starting pitching from its farm system.

To add to this core group, the Tribe did indeed spend some money.  Owner Paul Dolan reportedly had to okay the front office’s ability to give $8MM to Eddie Rosario, a familiar AL Central face who beat up on Cleveland pitching over his six seasons with the Twins.  Rosario was available due to some cost-cutting on Minnesota’s part, as the Twins chose to non-tender Rosario rather than pay him a projected arbitration salary in the range of $8.6MM to $12.9MM.  Rosario gives Cleveland a legitimate everyday outfielder who offers a solid left field glove and quite a bit of pop, even if his on-base numbers aren’t overly impressive.

While left field looks settled, there is uncertainty at the other outfield positions.  The Tribe’s hope is that Josh Naylor can take the leap from prospect to MLB regular in right field, but he does have only 383 big league plate appearances on his resume.  In center field, minor league signing Ben Gamel looks to get the bulk of playing time against right-handed pitching, with Amed Rosario and Jordan Luplow (who has only a handful of games as a center fielder in the majors) sharing the other side of the platoon.  Rosario or Luplow could also spell the left-handed hitting Naylor when a southpaw is on the mound.

Franmil Reyes might also get the occasional look in the outfield, but the slugger will spend much of his time as a designated hitter.  Nolan Jones could join the outfield mix as well, as the top prospect (expected to make his MLB debut in 2021) has been getting work as an outfielder and as a first baseman since Jose Ramirez has already locked down Jones’ usual third base position.  Elsewhere on the outfield depth chart, waiver claim Harold Ramirez joins Bradley Zimmer, prospect Daniel Johnson and, somewhat surprisingly, Oscar Mercado as the top options at Triple-A.  Mercado was optioned to the minors since he still hasn’t gotten his swing on track in the aftermath of a brutal 2020 season.

In the wake of the Mets trade, the initial thought was that both Gimenez and Amed Rosario would start in the middle infield, though that plan changed when Cleveland re-signed Cesar Hernandez to a $5MM deal with a club option for 2022.  Hernandez had an impressive all-around season with the Tribe, hitting .283/.355/.408 (106 OPS+, 110 wRC+) over 261 PA, and winning a Gold Glove for his slick work at second base.  Hernandez generated 1.9 fWAR over 58 games last season, a nice step up after he posted 1.8 fWAR in 2019 and 2.2 fWAR in 2018, both totals over 161-game seasons with the Phillies.

After declining the Tribe declined their club option on Carlos Santana, Jake Bauers will get another shot as the provisional starting first baseman.  This decision is probably more based on Bauers being out of minor league options than a testament to his performance, as Bauers has only a .691 OPS over 811 PA in the majors and he didn’t play at all in 2020.  Bobby Bradley has had a nice Spring Training and is waiting in the wings if Bauers struggles, though since Bradley and Naylor are the only other viable first base options on the roster, Cleveland will face a question if all of these younger bats aren’t quite ready for prime time.  Should this become an issue during the season, the Tribe could look to pick up a veteran free agent still on the market — speculatively, perhaps a reunion with Edwin Encarnacion?

The one club option that Cleveland did exercise last fall was to retain catcher Roberto Perez, who will earn a $5.5MM salary in 2021.  There was some thought that Austin Hedges could be non-tendered, but the Indians brought him back as well on an arbitration-avoiding $3.28MM salary.  The Perez/Hedges pairing definitely prioritizes glovework over hitting, though it adds to an overall sturdy defensive mix around the diamond.

Of course, Cleveland’s run-prevention efforts are helped by their strong pitching staff.  While replacing Carrasco is far from easy, the Tribe have Triston McKenzie, Cal Quantrill, and Logan Allen competing for the rotation’s two open spots, with McKenzie looking like the favorite for the fourth starter role.  There isn’t much in the way of experienced depth at Triple-A, so injuries could create a problem…unless the Tribe call up yet another youngster who immediately looks like a big league-ready arm.  Keep an eye on left-handers Scott Moss and Sam Hentges as candidates to make their Major League debuts in 2021.

The Indians did add some veterans to their relief corps via minor league deals, signing Blake Parker and a couple of familiar Cleveland faces in Bryan Shaw and Oliver Perez.  Shaw has already been told he is making the Opening Day roster, and Perez also looks like a pretty safe bet considering that Cleveland doesn’t have any other southpaws in the bullpen.  James Karinchak and Nick Wittgren are the top choices to replace Hand at closer, and both pitchers could receive their share of saves rather than have just a single pitcher committed for ninth-inning work.

It remains to be seen if the Indians have enough to keep pace with the Twins or White Sox in the AL Central, or if the Tribe will be able to absorb the losses of Lindor and Carrasco as readily as they did losing Mike Clevinger, Corey Kluber, or Trevor Bauer in other trades within the last two years.  Cleveland isn’t leaving itself much margin for error payroll-wise, but another postseason appearance wouldn’t be a shock.

How would you grade the Indians’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Grade the Indians' offseason
C 37.41% (969 votes)
D 29.92% (775 votes)
B 17.37% (450 votes)
F 12.78% (331 votes)
A 2.51% (65 votes)
Total Votes: 2,590

Offseason In Review: Milwaukee Brewers

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With the NL Central wide open, the Brewers made a pair of late free agent strikes to solidify their roster for another run at the playoffs.

Major League Signings

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

Defense wasn’t a strength for the Brewers in 2020, as they posted lackluster finishes in such league-wide categories as Outs Above Average (ranking 16th of 30 teams), Defensive Runs Saved (22nd), and UZR/150 (24th).  These numbers were going to improve anyway with former Gold Glover Lorenzo Cain back in action, but glovework may now become a real plus now that Kolten Wong and Jackie Bradley Jr. are on the roster.

After eight seasons in St. Louis, Wong became a free agent after the Cardinals declined their $12.5MM club option on the second baseman for 2021.  Several teams had interest in Wong over the course of the winter, and he was able to parlay that interest into a two-year contract and at least $18MM in guaranteed money, moving from the Cards to a division rival that is very familiar with what Wong brings to the table.

If Wong comes close to his career .261/.333/.384 slash line (94 OPS+, 96 wRC+), the Brewers won’t mind such slightly below-average production as long as Wong keeps providing elite-level defense.  The signing may also have the secondary impact of helping Keston Hiura’s game, as the defensively-challenged former second baseman now moves from the keystone to first base.  Such a position switch will lessen Hiura’s defensive responsibility and possibly allow him to focus more on his hitting, as Hiura went through a sophomore slump after his big 2019 rookie season.

The Brew Crew had three established outfield starters in Cain, former NL MVP Christian Yelich, and Avisail Garcia, yet signing Bradley made a lot of sense.  It has been over two years since Cain has been a productive regular, as he struggled through an injury-riddled 2019 and then opted out of much of the 2020 season.  Garcia (signed to a two-year, $20MM deal last offseason) at least provided passable center field defense filling in for Cain but suffered through a rough year at the plate.  Even Yelich had a down year by his standards, never quite looking on track over 247 plate appearances while posting a .205/.356/.430 slash line with 12 homers.

Into this mix comes Bradley, who joined Wong as another defensive standout hitting the open market after eight seasons with his original team.  It seemed like there was at least some chance Bradley could end up back with the Red Sox considering how long he remained a free agent, though Boston made other moves to replace Bradley in the Fenway Park outfield.  As the winter wore on, many of the other teams linked to Bradley also addressed their outfield needs with other players, perhaps just because clubs preferred these other options, or maybe because Bradley’s rather hefty contract demands might have immediately lost the interest of some suitors.

Bradley will earn $13MM of his $24MM guarantee in 2021, and the outfielder then has an $11MM player option to either rejoin the Brew Crew in 2022 or re-enter free agency.  The contract seems pretty palatable for both sides — Bradley gets an extra year of security, and even if he does struggle in 2021 and end up exercising his option out of necessity, $24MM isn’t so big a sum that it would significantly hamper even a smaller-market team like Milwaukee.

That said, the Brewers didn’t necessarily act like most other smaller-market franchises operated in the wake of 2020’s revenue losses.  The team was originally slated for a payroll of roughly $102.5MM in 2020 prior to the pandemic and the league shutdown, and as we approach Opening Day 2021, the Brewers have (according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts) approximately $96.9MM committed to this season’s payroll.  There are some sizeable deferrals within the 2021 salaries for both Bradley and Wong, but in terms of money on the books, the Brew Crew could certainly match or surpass their projected 2020 payroll figure depending on any in-season additions.

Since the Brewers didn’t do much of anything transaction-wise until February, president of baseball operations David Stearns might not have known exactly how much of a budget he had to work with for much of the offseason, or it was perhaps something of a tactical move to wait out the market in search of potential bargains.  Even after signing Wong, Milwaukee still made a strong attempt to sign Justin Turner before the longtime Dodger third baseman ended up re-signing with his old team.

Turner wasn’t the only bigger free agent bat under consideration, as the Brewers reportedly looked into Marcell Ozuna, Marcus Semien, and Eddie Rosario during the winter.  Whether the team was doing due diligence on available free agents or had a more serious interest in any of these other names isn’t known, but it does represent an interesting alternate picture of Milwaukee’s offseason.  The Brewers, after all, didn’t produce much offense last season, but their two biggest additions were defensive stars with middling offensive track records, whereas the likes of Ozuna or Rosario would have been clear bat-first additions.

Had Turner been signed instead of Bradley, it’s fair to assume Milwaukee looks to add a veteran outfielder on a minors contract or a low-cost MLB contract to fill that void in the outfield.  However, with Turner back in Los Angeles, that left third base as the position in need of some veteran reinforcement.

Milwaukee brought back an old friend in Travis Shaw, whose minor league deal has already been guaranteed by the team. The Brewers parted ways with Shaw after he struggled through a miserable 2019 season, but he did rebound to some modest extent in hitting .239/.306/.411 over 180 PA with the Blue Jays last year.  If Shaw can at least get back to producing against right-handed pitching, the Brewers can deploy a third base timeshare of Shaw and right-handed hitters Daniel Robertson and Orlando Arcia.

That duo could also factor into the shortstop picture if Luis Urias isn’t get ready for regular big league work.  Arcia was seen as a possible non-tender candidate heading into the offseason, but the Brewers chose to retain him as insurance in the wake of Urias’ forgettable 2019 season, which was hampered by both a wrist injury and a case of COVID-19.  Robertson was signed to a one-year, $900K deal as further utility depth, as the former Tampa Bay Ray first-round pick can play any infield position and has some experience at a corner outfielder.

Tim Lopes and Jace Peterson were also signed as utility candidates, yet the Brewers went another direction in tendering a contract to Dan Vogelbach.  This decision was made before Hiura was moved to first base, and before it became apparent that the National League wasn’t going to adopt the DH again for the 2021 season.  Vogelbach is out of minor league options and without a real position on the roster, so he stands out as a potential trade candidate in the final days of Spring Training.  Conversely, the Brewers could simply cut him before Opening Day and only owe him around $339K of his $1.4MM salary for the 2021 campaign.

The lack of a universal DH might have also closed the book on Ryan Braun’s career, as the longtime Brewers fixture recently said he hasn’t been doing any offseason training and is “strongly leaning” towards hanging up his glove.  Since nothing is yet official, Milwaukee fans can still hold out hope for a storybook late-season comeback scenario, but in all likelihood, the Brewers are already in the post-Braun era.

Rich Hill and Trevor Rosenthal were two of the Brewers’ targets for the rotation and bullpen this winter, but with neither hurler signed, Milwaukee’s pitching mix will look pretty similar to its collection of arms from the 2020 season.  Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Adrian Houser join the re-signed Brett Anderson atop the rotation.  While it sounds odd to refer to the oft-injured Anderson as an innings-eater, the grounder specialist has been mostly healthy for the last two seasons and will provide some veteran experience at the back of the rotation.

Freddy Peralta won the fifth starter’s job over Josh Lindblom, but in a season that will require as many pitchers on hand as possible, the Brewers will likely be even more flexible than usual with its pitching plans.  A six-man rotation, piggybacked starters, openers — nothing seems off the table in 2021.  With this in mind, veteran minor league signings like Jordan Zimmermann, Zack Godley, Brad Boxberger or Blaine Hardy could perhaps stick around (and not exercise any opt-out clauses) even if they don’t crack the Opening Day roster, since there should be plenty of opportunity for big league action throughout the season.

And, it probably bears mentioning that Josh Hader is still a Brewer.  Despite some rumors during the winter, it didn’t appear as though the Brewers ever strongly considered moving their relief ace (or maybe co-ace, considering Devin Williams’ emergence).  Hader is earning $6.675MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility and he is still under control through the 2023 season, so while a trade might eventually happen down the line, it doesn’t appear the southpaw is going anywhere in the near future.

While much of the offseason chatter in the NL Central focused on the players the Cubs, Reds, and (prior to the Nolan Arenado trade) Cardinals were letting go, the Brew Crew somewhat quietly flew under the radar and didn’t part ways with any major pieces.  As flawed as the 2020 team was, it was still able to squeak into the expanded playoff bracket, and now the Brewers will return with Bradley, Wong, Cain, and what they hope are several bounce-back candidates in the lineup.

How would you grade the Brewers’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Grade the Brewers' offseason
B 57.68% (1,566 votes)
C 24.42% (663 votes)
A 11.60% (315 votes)
D 4.13% (112 votes)
F 2.17% (59 votes)
Total Votes: 2,715

Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

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After their first losing season since 2011, the Nationals made several short-term additions to reload the roster for another shot at contention.

Major League Signings

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

General manager Mike Rizzo is no stranger to generating winter headlines, but there were no true blockbuster additions to the Washington roster this offseason, as the Nats (like most teams around baseball) took a more measured approach to spending in response to the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign.  This doesn’t mean Rizzo took it easy, however — the Nationals were one of the offseason’s busier teams, considering the sheer volume of familiar names added on both one-year MLB contracts and minor league deals.

The Nationals waited until late December to make a truly noteworthy transaction, picking up Josh Bell in a trade that sent young right-handers Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean to the Pirates.  This was one of Washington’s few moves made with an eye beyond just 2021, as Bell has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining before he qualifies for free agency after the 2022 season.  Earning $6.3MM this coming, Bell will be a pretty cost-effective piece for D.C. even if he has a good enough season to merit a big arbitration raise next winter, and naturally the club wouldn’t mind such an expenditure if it meant Bell was back to his old self.

The switch-hitting slugger batted just .226/.305/.364 in 223 plate appearances last year, with Bell also posting the highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rates of his five-year MLB career.  That performance surely lowered the Pirates’ asking price in trade talks, and the Nationals must feel they’ve bought low on a player who was an All-Star in 2019.  Crowe and Yean are prospects of some note, but not blue-chippers in a Washington farm system that is already pretty deep in pitching.

The Bell trade broke the seal on the Nats’ winter business to some extent, as the team soon thereafter moved on another power bat by bringing Kyle Schwarber to the District.  The Cubs (as part of their own payroll crunch) non-tendered Schwarber after he hit .188/.308/.393 with 11 homers in 224 PA, a big step backwards from the above-average production Schwarber delivered in his previous five years in Wrigleyville.

Adding Bell and Schwarber probably won’t do much to help a Nationals defense that struggled badly in 2020.  What the two sluggers can bring, the Nats hope, is suitable lineup protection hitting behind Trea Turner and Juan Soto.  There is some risk involved if either of the two new faces continue to hit at their 2020 levels, but at least the risk is minimized to just the 2021 season, since D.C. can walk away from either Bell or Schwarber next offseason if things don’t work out.

This type of strategy informed the Nationals’ entire winter, as the team is rolling the dice on a number of bounce-back candidates in hope of landing at least a few bargain scores.  While Washington has shown a willingness to exceed the luxury tax threshold (if only by a bit) in the past, the club would surely like to avoid another tax payment if possible, and the Nats are estimated to sit roughly $13.25MM below the $210MM Competitive Balance Tax limit.  It leaves the team with a bit of breathing room for midseason additions, though the Nationals’ number will escalate depending on how many of their minor league signings make the roster and lock in guaranteed salaries.

Washington could have saved itself $500K if the team had just claimed Brad Hand on waivers last October, as Hand’s $10MM club option (that was eventually declined by the Indians) was less than the $10.5MM deal that Hand signed with D.C. in January.  Still, the Nats weren’t alone in passing on Hand at that time, quite possibly because they and other clubs didn’t have their 2021 budgets planned at that point in the offseason.

An “extra” $500K also isn’t exactly a big price to pay for a former three-time All-Star.  Though Hand’s velocity and strikeout numbers dropped a bit in 2020, he still posted some very strong numbers as Cleveland’s closer.  Hand is an easy replacement for Sean Doolittle (who struggled last year and left for the Reds in free agency) and his addition could help stabilize a Nationals relief corps that has been a weak spot for years.

Unfortunately, as is often the case with the Washington bullpen, new problems emerge as quickly as old problems are corrected.  Will Harris’ status is in question due to a blood clot in his right arm, while Tanner Rainey has yet to pitch this spring due to a muscle strain near his collarbone.  This opens the door for one of many relievers in camp on minor league deals (such as Javy Guerra, T.J. McFarland, Luis Avilan, Aaron Barrett, and more) to win jobs, or the Nationals could fill at least one bullpen role with one of the pitchers who doesn’t win the fifth spot in the rotation.

Joe Ross, Erick Fedde, and Austin Voth are all out of options, so the Nats will have to figure out a way to keep them on the big league roster unless they want to risk losing any of the hurlers on a waiver placement.  D.C. can ill-afford losing a starter-capable arm for nothing, both because innings will be harder to fill this season, and because there is a fair amount of injury risk within the veteran top four of Washington’s rotation.

Stephen Strasburg tops this list, as the right-hander has been slowed by a calf injury this spring after missing all but two starts of 2020 due to carpal tunnel syndrome.  Between Strasburg, Max Scherzer, and Patrick Corbin, the Nationals reinforced this experienced group with an even older pitcher in 37-year-old Jon Lester.  It has been some time since Lester was a true top-of-the-rotation force, and his 5.16 ERA in 2020 (albeit over only 61 innings) was the worst of his career.  While the Nats obviously think Lester can improve on that statistic in a more normal season, Lester’s primary function will be to act as a durable innings-eater.

Returning to the position-player side, the Nationals said goodbye to several regulars from their World Series team, as Adam Eaton (White Sox), Michael A. Taylor (Royals), Kurt Suzuki (Angels), and Asdrubal Cabrera (Diamondbacks) all left the District as free agents and Howie Kendrick decided to retire.  Some familiar faces were retained, however, as the Nats worked out a new contract with longtime franchise stalwart Ryan Zimmerman, and utilityman Josh Harrison was re-signed for a second season with the club.

Zimmerman will serve as Bell’s backup, while Harrison could end up in a more significant role given the unsettled state of the D.C. infield.  On paper, Harrison will play much everywhere on the diamond in a super-utility capacity.  In practice, however, Harrison might end up getting more regular work in the infield since Carter Kieboom has followed up a rough 2020 season with a lack of production in Spring Training.  (Kieboom was also mentioned in trade rumors over the winter.)  It is possible the Nationals could end up using Starlin Castro at third base and Luis Garcia as the regular second baseman, but since Garcia is also inexperienced, having a versatile veteran like Harrison on hand becomes even more important.

The Nationals did at least consider making a much bigger splash to their everyday lineup, as such free agents and trade targets as D.J. LeMahieu, J.T. Realmuto, Carlos Santana, Eugenio Suarez, and Kris Bryant were all reportedly considered at different points in the offseason.  While Harrison, Alex Avila or (“Baby Shark” sing-alongs notwithstanding) Gerardo Parra don’t have the same cache as those star names, it seems like Washington is opting to wait until next winter to start considering more big-ticket additions.

Only three players are on guaranteed contracts for the 2022 season, though the trio of Corbin, Harris, and Strasburg accounts for $67MM in payroll (roughly $11.5MM of Strasburg’s salary is deferred).  As well, the Nationals are surely hoping that some of their payroll space will be taken up by long-term extensions with Soto and Turner.  A Soto extension might well be the priciest contract in baseball history, while Turner is more of an immediately pressing concern, since Soto is controlled through the 2024 season and Turner only through 2022.  Scherzer is also entering his final year under contract, and it’s probably safe to assume the Nats will have some talks about another deal for their longtime ace.

It makes for an interesting dynamic heading into 2021, as the Nationals will challenge for a return to the playoffs, but they are also well-positioned to pivot into being deadline sellers should they fall out of contention.  The 2022 Nationals may look quite different, but there is still enough of the old championship core remaining this year for Washington to make a proper 162-game defense of the 2019 World Series title.

How would you grade the Nationals’ offseason? (Poll link for app users)

Grade the Nationals' offseason
B 50.28% (1,346 votes)
C 33.40% (894 votes)
A 8.22% (220 votes)
D 5.16% (138 votes)
F 2.95% (79 votes)
Total Votes: 2,677

Latest On Zac Gallen

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MARCH 23: Gallen has a “hairline stress fracture of his right lateral forearm at the radial end,” Zach Buchanan of The Athletic tweets. Gallen can keep playing catch at a low-stress level, but there’s no timeline for his return.

MARCH 22: Diamondbacks right-hander Zac Gallen was scratched from his scheduled Cactus League start today due to right lateral forearm soreness, manager Torey Lovullo told MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert (Twitter links) and other media.

Gallen is still being evaluated, and he has been receiving treatment on the problem for the last 10 days.  This would seem to indicate that Gallen has been dealing with the injury through at least one of his last two spring outings, though it hasn’t seemed to impact his results — the righty has a 2.13 ERA through four games and 12 2/3 innings during Spring Training.

Somewhat unusually, Gallen’s problem emerged while swinging a bat rather than throwing.  He told Gilbert and other reporters that his forearm began to feel sore after he was jammed with a pitch while taking swings in a batting cage.  (Should Gallen’s injury prove to be serious, he could quite possibly become the face of the dispute over the universal DH not being re-implemented for the 2021 season.)  In terms of pitching, Gallen said he was able to throw most of his pitches without issue, only feeling soreness when throwing a curveball.

Needless to say, the D’Backs will be as cautious as possible in monitoring any sort of forearm problem for a pitcher who looks to be the burgeoning ace of the rotation.  Gallen has been very impressive over 152 career MLB innings with the Marlins and Diamondbacks, posting a 2.78 ERA/408 SIERA and an above-average 28.5K%.  Gallen had some control issues in his 2019 rookie season but reduced his walk rate from 10.8% in 2019 to 8.6% in 2020.

Kirby Yates To Miss “Multiple Weeks” With Flexor Strain

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Blue Jays right-hander Kirby Yates is expected to miss “multiple weeks” due to a flexor-pronator strain in his throwing arm, the team announced.  (MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson was among those to report the news.)

Signed to a one-year, $5.5MM deal in January, Yates was expected to provide some veteran experience at the back of Toronto’s bullpen, projected to get the bulk of save opportunities given his past track record.  Yates was arguably baseball’s best reliever from 2018-19, posting a 1.67 ERA and 39.02% strikeout rate over 123 2/3 innings and racking up 53 saves.  In 2019, Yates received an All-Star selection and finished ninth in NL Cy Young Award voting.

2020 was a lost year, however, as Yates made just six appearances before undergoing surgery to remove bone chips from his throwing elbow.  More will be known about this latest injury after further examination, and naturally any sort of elbow problem is cause for concern, particularly given that Yates already has a Tommy John surgery on his record.  He underwent that procedure way back in 2006, which resulted in Yates not being drafted and led to the righty beginning his pro career by signing a free agent deal with the Rays in 2009.

The Jays were certainly hoping that a healthy Yates would return to his All-Star form, but his absence now leaves a void in the ninth inning.  Jordan Romano and Rafael Dolis are the most logical candidates to serve as closer, or the Blue Jays might approach the role on a situational basis and use Romero, Dolis, and other pitchers for save situations depending on matchups.

In the bigger picture, Yates’ injury is another ominous loss to the Blue Jays’ pitching mix.  Nate Pearson won’t be in the rotation to begin the season due to a groin injury, while the club is also still awaiting word on Thomas Hatch’s forearm/elbow problem.  With a number of question marks in the rotation, a deep and productive bullpen was even more of a must for the Jays, but the relief corps is now down two arms in Yates and Hatch for the time being.

Minor MLB Transactions: 3/22/21

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Rangers announced that right-hander Joe Gatto has been outrighted to Triple-A.  The 25-year-old Gatto was a second-round pick for the Angels in the 2014 draft and he spent his entire career in the Halos organization before signing a Major League contract with Texas back in December.  Gatto will receive $570.5K in guaranteed salary though he has yet to pitch in the big leagues, posting a 4.80 ERA and 18.3% strikeout rate over 448 1/3 career innings in the minors.  The move opens up a 40-man roster spot that could be filled by one of many non-roster invitees (i.e. Ian Kennedy, Matt Bush, Charlie Culberson, Hunter Wood) in the Rangers’ camp, and the team may have more 40-man moves in the offing to accommodate several of these players.

Indians Hire Dan Otero In Baseball Operations Role

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The Indians have hired former reliever Dan Otero for a job in their baseball operations department, The Athletic’s Zack Meisel reports (Twitter link).  Otero will work with advanced scouting, beginning a new chapter in a baseball career that spanned eight Major League seasons from 2012-19.

Selected by the Giants in the 21st round of the 2007 draft, Otero went on to post a 3.39 ERA/3.16 SIERA over 403 2/3 innings and 358 games in the big leagues.  Armed with only a 90mph fastball and lacking the big strikeout numbers (a career 15.8K%) or spin rates that usually define modern relievers, Otero nonetheless established himself as an effective bullpen weapon.

Otero issued only 56 walks during his career, resulting in a superb 3.4BB% — the second-lowest walk rate of any pitcher with at least 400 innings pitched from 2012-19.  Within those same parameters, Otero also had the seventh-best grounder rate (57.7%) of any pitcher, thanks in large part to his ability to limit hard contact.

The right-hander made his MLB debut with the Giants in 2012 before moving on to pitch three seasons with the A’s, and then four seasons in Cleveland from 2016-19.  That stint with the Tribe included some big innings during the team’s 2016 postseason run, as Otero posted a 2.70 ERA over 6 2/3 playoff frames.  Otero was also a member of the Phillies and Yankees organizations during his career but never made any big league appearances with either team — his last contract was a minor league deal with the Yankees last year, though he was placed on the restricted list prior to the season.

MLBTR congratulates Otero on a fine career and we wish him the best in his new role.

Jose Leclerc To Miss “Extended Time” With Elbow Soreness

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Rangers closer Jose Leclerc is suffering from elbow soreness that will cause the righty to miss “extended time,” according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link) and multiple reporters.  Leclerc has already left the Rangers’ Spring Training camp and headed to Texas for further examination.  In more unfortunate injury news, southpaws Joely Rodriguez and Brett Martin will also begin the season on the injured list, though their absences aren’t expected to last as long.

With Jonathan Hernandez already out through at least the first part of April due to a UCL sprain, Leclerc’s injury represents another long-term hit to the Texas bullpen.  Any mention of an elbow problem naturally raises the concern of Tommy John surgery, which would keep the 27-year-old Leclerc out of action until midway through the 2022 season.

This is the second significant injury in as many years for Leclerc, who pitched in only two games last season due to a tear of his right teres muscle.  His return to action was marked by a late arrival at camp due to visa issues, and then Leclerc didn’t have his usual velocity over 3 2/3 Cactus League outings, which perhaps isn’t unexpected as he was rebuilding his arm strength.

Despite it all, Leclerc was the provisional favorite to enter the season as the Texas closer.  He was first promoted to the job back in 2018, during a season that saw Leclerc post a 1.56 ERA/2.60 SIERA and a whopping 38.1K% (eighth-highest of any pitcher in baseball with at least 50 IP) over 57 2/3 frames out of the Rangers’ bullpen.  His performance took a step back in 2019, due in part to both an increase in walks and a big decrease in batted-ball luck (a .306 BABIP in 2019, as opposed to a .211 BABIP in 2018), but it should be noted that most of Leclerc’s struggles that year were contained to the month of April.

Prior to that 2019 season, Leclerc signed a contract extension that paid him a guaranteed $14.75MM through the 2022 season, with the Rangers holding club options on his services for both 2023 ($6MM, $750K buyout) and 2024 ($6.25MM, $500K buyout).  While not a huge financial investment, this extension will end up looking like something of a bust for Texas should the worst come to pass and Leclerc does require TJ surgery.

Rodriguez (sprained ankle) and Martin (back) haven’t yet pitched during Spring Training, but both left-handers could end up spending a relatively short time on the IL, perhaps even just a minimal 10-day absence.  Their returns will be greatly welcomed by a Rangers bullpen that is now suddenly thin on arms.  It remains to be seen who will be the first choice for save with both Leclerc and Hernandez out, and the role could fall to minor league signings Ian Kennedy or Matt Bush.

Injury Notes: Engel, Lorenzen, Antone, Reds, Kelly

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Adam Engel will begin the season the injured list, as White Sox manager Tony La Russa told reporters (including Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times) that Engel will miss “at least a couple of weeks” due to a right hamstring strain.  Long known for his glovework moreso than his bat, Engel hit .295/.333/.477 over 93 plate appearances in 2020, and was projected to serve as Chicago’s fourth outfielder this year, also getting his share of right field platoon duty with the left-handed hitting Adam Eaton.  [UPDATE: Engel told The Athletic’s James Fegan and other reporters that his injury carries a normal recovery timeline of 2-4 weeks, though that projection will depend on how his body responds to treatment.]

Utilityman Leury Garcia could fill Engel’s role, and La Russa also mentioned three other candidates in camp — prospect Luis Gonzalez, and non-roster invitees Billy Hamilton and Nick Williams.  Mikie Mahtook is another center field-capable player with MLB experience in camp.  If Engel does make good progress before Opening Day, it’s possible his IL stint could be fairly minimal, so the Sox might just use Garcia or Gonzalez as short-term replacements rather than make a 40-man roster move to accommodate one of the players on minor league deals.

More injury situations from around baseball….

  • With Sonny Gray already slated to begin the season on the IL, two more pitching concerns arose for the Reds on Saturday.  Michael Lorenzen suffered a minor shoulder strain while pitching in an intrasquad game, and Tejay Antone ended a side session due to hip flexor irritation.  GM Nick Krall told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that “we got as good of news as possible” on the two right-handers, saying “I think we’re hopeful that both will start the season on time, but we’re still monitoring the situation.”  Lorenzen was taken out as something of a precaution, while Antone may perhaps be taken along a bit slower, considering that he was already trying to recover from a slight groin strain.  Since the Reds have two off-days in the first eight days of the schedule, they could get by with just a starting four of Luis Castillo, Wade Miley, Tyler Mahle, and Jose De Leon should Lorenzen to miss time.  If Antone is healthy and isn’t instead ticketed for the bullpen, he could also pitch as a starter rather than De Leon.
  • Brewers pitching prospect Antoine Kelly underwent thoracic outlet syndrome surgery last November, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy writes, and it isn’t yet certain when the southpaw might be back on the mound.  “I think it’s unlikely for him to be ready by the start of the Minor League season….I think we do envision him pitching over the summer. Exactly when, we don’t know,” Milwaukee president of baseball ops David Stearns said.  Kelly was a second-round pick in the 2019 draft, and he made 10 starts (nine in rookie ball, one in A-ball) that year before working out at the Brewers’ alternate training site last summer.  Baseball America ranks Kelly as the fourth-best prospect in Milwaukee’s system, citing his plus fastball and plus slider, and saying he “has the attributes to develop into a mid-rotation or better starter.”

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