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NL East Notes: Ozuna, Braves, Mets, La Russa, Nationals, Phillies

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Marcell Ozuna is unsurprisingly drawing a lot of early attention in free agency, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) reports that the Braves and at least nine other teams have already shown interest in the slugger.  The list of suitors includes teams from both the National and American League, despite uncertainty about whether or not the DH will be available to NL teams next season.  Of course, Ozuna isn’t yet a full-time designated hitter at this point in his career, as he played 21 of his 60 games as a corner outfielder in 2020, but teams would undoubtedly prefer the security blanket of a DH spot for Ozuna over the course of a multi-year deal.

Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos has mostly preferred to invest in pricey one-year contracts for veteran players (including Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel, and Ozuna himself) in free agency, though Atlanta signed Will Smith to a three-year, $39MM deal last offseason.  Ozuna’s next deal might be worth almost twice as much as it took to land Smith, but considering how Atlanta expects to be contending for the World Series, making the big investment to re-sign Ozuna might be deemed as worthwhile from the Braves’ perspective.

Some more from around the NL East…

  • The White Sox hiring Tony La Russa as their next manager was a controversial hire for many reasons, including the fact that La Russa hasn’t managed a big league game since 2011.  However, La Russa did receive consideration for a managerial opening just last winter, as Jon Heyman (in a radio interview on WFAN’s Moose and Maggie show) said the Mets interviewed La Russa about potentially replacing Mickey Callaway.  “Nothing came of” the talks and La Russa wasn’t extended an offer, as the Mets went to hire Carlos Beltran.
  • The Nationals seem likely to take a “middle of the pack” approach to spending this winter, The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli opines, operating as neither “big spenders or big savers” in the wake of revenue losses from the 2020 season.  Washington has over $161MM in projected payroll for the 2021 campaign, and though a lot of that is scheduled to come off the books next winter (most notably Max Scherzer’s salary), one would imagine the Nats might want to earmark some of those savings for possible extensions for Trea Turner and Juan Soto.  Ghiroli feels the Nationals will be active in free agency to some degree but doesn’t expect any splashy signings.
  • The Phillies are in their second round of interviews as they search for a new pitching coach, NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury writes.  There isn’t much known about the Phils’ search thus far, though Salisbury lists three of the candidates who were interviewed in the first round — two internal names in assistant pitching coach Dave Lundquist and minor league pitching coordinator Rafael Chaves, plus one name from outside the organization in Reds assistant pitching coach and director of pitching Caleb Cotham.  It isn’t known if any of Lundquist, Chaves, or Cotham advanced to the second-interview stage.  [UPDATE: Cotham has interviewed with two different teams, Reds GM Nick Krall told C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic.)

Notes From The Angels’ GM Search

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The Angels concluded their search for a new general manager yesterday, announcing that former Braves assistant GM Perry Minasian had been signed to a four-year contract to run the Halos’ front office.  At least 20 candidates reportedly interviewed for the position, and while several names had already been linked to the Angels, some other previously unknown executives were also on the Angels’ radar.

Dodgers assistant GM Jeff Kingston wasn’t just interviewed, but was also a finalist for the job, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports (via Twitter).  Previous reports cited Minasian and Mariners assistant GM Justin Hollander as the last two candidates under consideration, so it seems like Kingston may have one of the next group of finalists that also included Cubs senior VP of player personnel Jason McLeod and Diamondbacks assistant GMs Amiel Sawdaye and Jared Porter.

Perhaps best known for serving as the Mariners’ interim GM for the month between the Jack Zduriencik and Jerry Dipoto eras, Kingston is a familiar face in Southern California baseball.  He began his career as an intern in the Padres’ front office and rose to the position to director of baseball operations over nine seasons in San Diego before joining the Mariners in 2009.  Kingston remained in Seattle even after Dipoto took over as general manager, with Kingston receiving a promotion to assistant GM and vice president.  Kingston has spent the last two years working for the Dodgers.

Kingston fit the mold of many of the Angels’ candidates — well-regarded younger executives who were looking for their first opportunity to run a front office.  However, the Angels also explored making a big splash by poaching experienced names, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Halos asked for permission to speak with Rays GM Erik Neander, Athletics GM David Forst, and Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti.  The Rays declined the Angels’ request to talk to Neander, though it may have been a moot point since “Neander does not wish to leave the [Tampa] organization.”

Forst and Antonetti “had personal reasons for not wanting to pursue the Angels’ opening” and are also “happy in their current jobs,” though Rosenthal left open the possibility that either Forst or Antonetti could be receptive if either were approached by the Mets for their vacant president of baseball operations position.  Former Marlins GM Michael Hill is the only known person to interview with the Mets thus far, but Forst, Antonetti, and a host of other candidates have been speculated as possibilities for what seems to be one of the most attractive job openings in baseball.  As Rosenthal noted, Forst has ties with Mets president Sandy Alderson, who worked as a senior advisor in Oakland for the last two seasons.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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With a familiar face back in the manager’s chair, the Red Sox are looking to rebound from a disastrous last-place finish in the AL East.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Chris Sale, SP: $115MM through 2024 ($20MM club/vesting option for 2025; Sale can opt out of contract after the 2022 season)
  • Xander Bogaerts, SS: $100MM through 2025 (plus $20MM club/vesting option for 2026)
  • J.D. Martinez, OF/DH: $38.75MM through 2022 (could become mutual options if Martinez suffers a Lisfranc-related injury to his right foot)
  • Nathan Eovaldi, SP: $34MM through 2022
  • Dustin Pedroia, 2B: $12MM through 2021
  • Andrew Benintendi, OF: $6.6MM through 2021
  • Christian Vazquez, C: $6.5MM through 2021 (includes $250K buyout of $7MM club option for 2022)

Other Obligations

  • $32MM to the Dodgers through the 2022 season to cover a portion of David Price’s salary

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Despite months of speculation that Alex Cora would eventually return to the Red Sox, the team at least created the perception of due diligence in searching for a new manager, with at least eight other candidates considered for the position.  Of course, Cora now returns to the job with the baggage of his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, which led to his January firing in Boston and his subsequent league-issued suspension for the 2020 season.

Regardless of whether Cora’s return was always in the cards, the end result is the same — the manager of Boston’s 2018 World Series team has now been tasked with getting the Sox back on track.  With the obvious caveat of the 60-game schedule, Boston’s .400 winning percentage (24-36) was the lowest since the club’s .383 mark (62-100) in 1965, representing a drastic fall for a team just two years removed from a championship.

It was expected that 2020 would be a transition year for the Red Sox, considering last February’s trade of Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers.  That blockbuster deal ensured that the Sox would duck under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2020, thus avoiding the escalating tax bill that came with three consecutive years of overages, and also ensuring that the Red Sox would pay only the “first-timer” tax rate if they were to exceed the $210MM threshold in 2021.

When the Sox last reset their luxury tax bill in 2017, they responded by exceeding the threshold again in 2018, largely due to signing J.D. Martinez as the final piece of their World Series puzzle.  Even before the pandemic sliced into every team’s revenues, however, it didn’t seem likely that chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was going to immediately launch a similar CBT-busting spending spree this winter.  If Boston’s plan going forward is to spend big but not to excess, the front office will have plenty of room to operate, as the Red Sox have a little under $161MM (well shy of $210MM) on the books for 2021.

“I don’t like ruling us out on anybody,” Bloom recently said in regards to shopping at the very top of the free agent market.  Boston’s biggest needs also overlap with some of the winter’s biggest available names.  George Springer would more than replace Jackie Bradley Jr. in center field.  DJ LeMahieu would turn second base from a weak spot to a strength.  Trevor Bauer would instantly upgrade a woeful rotation.  It remains to be seen how ardently the Sox will pursue any of this trio, or if they’ll instead look to spread their money around for less-expensive free agents or higher-priced players who may be available in trades.

Let’s begin with the pitching staff that was ravaged by injuries in 2020.  Chris Sale underwent Tommy John surgery last March and will miss at least a couple of months at the start of the season.  Eduardo Rodriguez thankfully seems to be on pace to return after missing all of last season due to a COVID-19 diagnosis that led to myocarditis, but it’s hard to call the southpaw anything other than a question mark until he is back on the mound.  With Rodriguez hopefully ready for Opening Day, he and Nathan Eovaldi will headline a rotation mix that currently looks to include Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Chris Mazza, or Kyle Hart.

Needless to say, there’s plenty of room for at least one and probably two proven starters to be added.  We’ve already seen some noteworthy early movement within the pitching market, as Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman accepted qualifying offers from the Mets and Giants, respectively, and Robbie Ray re-signed with the Blue Jays.  Beyond those names who have already left the board, a case could be made for the Red Sox to pursue just about any free agent arm.

Veterans Jake Odorizzi, Jose Quintana or Masahiro Tanaka could bring some stability, as odd as it would be to see Tanaka pitching on the other side of the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry.   Corey Kluber or James Paxton could be had at relative bargain prices given their injury-marred 2020 seasons, or Taijuan Walker or Garrett Richards could be pursued after their bounce-back campaigns.  If the Red Sox want to add a veteran to just eat some innings, they could turn to old friends Jon Lester, Rick Porcello, or Martin Perez.  Boston declined its $6.85MM club option on Perez, perhaps a bit of a surprise considering their need for pitching, but Perez posted some pretty middling numbers in 2020.

Bauer gets his own section, as the Red Sox’ hiring of Bloom likely pushes the club toward a more analytical approach that the right-hander desires.  With so much uncertainty in the rotation, one could even argue the Sox should be willing to let Bauer try pitching every fourth day — another item on his free-agent wish list.  Still, this seems like a long shot.  Bauer is more likely to sign with a team that seems closer to winning in 2021, and given his past criticism of the Astros, he might not be all that eager to play under Cora.

The bullpen was also a big problem area and might yet face an overhaul.  With teams expected to be more aggressive than ever in non-tendering arbitration-eligible players, it wouldn’t be a complete shock if any of Barnes, Brasier, Weber, or Brice were non-tendered.  It’s indicative of the state of the 2020 offseason that even generally solid relievers like Barnes or Brasier are lacking in job security.

If Bloom’s time with the Rays tells us anything about the approach he’ll take with the relief market in Boston, he’ll eschew going after bigger names like Liam Hendriks and the lucrative multi-year deals required to land top-of-the-market relievers.  The market should have plenty of short-term options available — former Rays Kirby Yates, Sergio Romo, and Brad Boxberger among them, not that Bloom will necessarily be predisposed to look at former Tampa Bay arms.  The Red Sox could also explore a reunion with Collin McHugh, who signed with the club last March but didn’t pitch after some lingering elbow problems led McHugh to opt out of the season.

It can’t be overstated just how much Boston’s pitching sunk their season, as the Red Sox lineup was a lot more solid than one would expect for a last-place team.  That was despite poor seasons from Martinez and Andrew Benintendi, and the Sox are counting on both to hit closer to their usual form next year.

Martinez will again be the regular DH while Benintendi will have a starting outfield job, though the position is to be determined.  With Bradley possibly leaving, either Benintendi or Alex Verdugo could be tabbed to take over in center field, or the Sox could take a more fluid approach to their lineup and have the two alternate between center field and a corner spot based on matchups.  With Michael Chavis, Yairo Munoz, and Martinez all able to chip in for corner outfield duty in a pinch and prospect Jarren Duran projected to make his MLB debut at some point in 2021, the Sox have some flexibility in whatever they decide to do with their outfield.

That decision could simply be to re-sign Bradley.  The Sox have already discussed a new contract for the former Gold Glover, though they’ll have competition since Bradley coupled his strong defense with an above-average offensive year in 2020.

Elsewhere around the diamond, shortstop (Xander Bogaerts), catcher (Christian Vazquez), third base (Rafael Devers), and first base (impressive rookie Bobby Dalbec) have most of the positions spoken for, but there has been some speculation that Devers’ defensive struggles could lead to a position swap with Dalbec.  Since the Red Sox are a bit thin on left-handed bats, nobody would be surprised if Mitch Moreland was brought back into the fold in his old part-time first base role.  Munoz was used exclusively as an outfielder last year but has infield experience, so he’ll be competing for bench/utility infield duty with Christian Arroyo, Tzu-Wei Lin, prospect C.J. Chatham, or maybe a new face or two signed to a minor league contract.

That leaves second base as the glaring weak link.  The Red Sox liked what they saw in Arroyo last year and it seems too early to give up on Chavis, so the backup plan could be to use these two and Munoz at the position and see what develops.  However, second base is also the most obvious spot for an external solution, especially since some solid options exist in free agency.  Beyond LeMahieu as the biggest get, Tommy La Stella, Cesar Hernandez, Kolten Wong, and Korean star Ha-Seong Kim are available.  Since star prospect Jeter Downs (whose potential debut in 2021 shouldn’t be ruled out) might eventually end up as the second baseman of the future, Boston would probably prefer to seek out shorter-term rather than longer-term contracts for any second baseman they might pursue.

If Bloom’s first season running the front office was marked by cost-cutting and roster churn, this offseason might be our first chance to see how plans to run the Red Sox under more “normal” circumstances — as normal as can be, of course, considering the pandemic’s influence and all of the uncertainty surrounding the 2021 season.  Don’t count on an all-in push, but if 2020 was all of the rebuilding and step backwards that ownership was willing to take, the Sox could be one of the winter’s more aggressive teams.

Mac Williamson Sues Giants

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Former Giants outfielder Mac Williamson is suing the team over a 2018 incident that saw Williamson suffer an on-field concussion.  The lingering effects of that concussion “ended my career,” Williamson said, implying that he is done with the sport after eight professional seasons.

On April 24, 2018, Williamson was playing left field at Oracle Park (then known as AT&T Park) in a game between the Giants and Nationals.  While in pursuit of a Bryce Harper fly ball into foul territory in the fifth inning, Williamson tripped over the bullpen mounds set up in foul ground and fell into the wall.  He remained in the game until the ninth but didn’t appear in another game until May 25 after a stint on the concussion-related injured list.

In a Zoom news conference with Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle and other reporters today, Williamson gave a statement saying that the concussion “left me with lifelong injuries that have also taken a significant toll on my personal life.  I suffer nausea, trouble sleeping, mood swings, and other issues.  I wake up every day hoping that today is a better day and that I will get closer to how I felt before the injury.”

The on-field bullpen mounds were a part of Oracle Park since the stadium opened in 2000, but were moved off the field of play and behind the center field fence as part of renovations that took place prior to the 2020 season.

“Everybody’s career ends at some point. But to have it taken from me because the bullpen mounds were unnecessarily placed on the field is very hard to cope with,” Williamson said.  “Although I will never be made whole, my intent on filing the lawsuit is holding park owners accountable for not only taking away my career, but carelessly risking every other great player’s careers by needlessly placing the bullpen mounds on the field.”

A third-round pick for the Giants in the 2012 draft, Williamson was a well-regarded prospect on his way up the minor league ladder before making his MLB debut in 2015.  He hit only .228/.305/.406 in 200 plate appearances in 2016-17, though regular playing time was hard to find, and Williamson was frequently shuttled back and forth between the Giants’ roster and their Triple-A affiliate.  As Schulman noted, Williamson revamped his swing in the 2017-18 offseason and was enjoying a hot start in 2018 before the concussion.

Post-injury, Williamson played in only 23 more games that season for the Giants and then 36 more games at Triple-A before his year was cut short by injury in mid-August.  In 2019, Williamson appeared in 40 MLB games for the Giants and Mariners before heading to South Korea to play 40 games with the KBO League’s Samsung Lions.  He inked a minor league deal with the Nationals during the offseason but was released in May.

The Giants released a statement addressing the lawsuit, saying “MLB and its clubs have a longstanding practice of addressing claims arising from player injuries through the collectively-bargained grievance procedure and the worker’s compensation system.  Williamson’s claims are properly resolved through these processes, not through the courts.”

Blue Jays Interested In Andrelton Simmons

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The Blue Jays looked into acquiring Andrelton Simmons prior to the August 31 trade deadline, and now that the shortstop is a free agent, veteran reporter Bob Elliott tweets that Toronto is again interested in Simmons’ services.

Simmons ended up playing in only 30 games in 2020, as he spent time on the injured list with a sprained ankle and also opted out of the season on September 22.  Over the small sample size of 127 plate appearances, Simmons hit pretty well (.297/.346/.356, 99 wRC+ and 95 OPS+), and the Jays or any team would happily take that sort of league-average offense in combination with Simmons’ usual excellent defense.  It’s worth noting that 2020 was by far the worst defensive season of Simmons’ career, though it’s fair to assume that his bad ankle contributed to his -1 Outs Above Average, -2 Defensive Runs Saved and +4.0 UZR/150.

That said, Simmons was also bothered by ankle problems in 2019, and has played in only 133 of a possible 222 games over the last two seasons.  In ranking Simmons 17th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, MLBTR projected that the 31-year-old Simmons might have to take just a one-year contract this winter, as teams will be wary of making multi-year offers given his recent injury history and any potential questions about his glovework going forward.

A one-year deal would certainly seem to fit the Blue Jays’ plans, as the team still considers Bo Bichette to be its shortstop of the future but a short-term defensive upgrade is still very much a need.  Signing Simmons would indirectly fix the Jays’ need at third base, since Bichette or Cavan Biggio could play the hot corner while the other plays second base.  Simmons doesn’t have the offensive upside of other rumored Jays shortstop targets as Francisco Lindor or Didi Gregorius, but he might have the lowest price tag — Gregorius is surely looking for a multi-year contract after taking a one-year deal with the Phillies last winter, while the Jays would have to pay a hefty trade return to pry Lindor away from the Indians.

Alderson: Luis Rojas “Very Likely” To Manage Mets In 2021

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Now that Steve Cohen has bought the Mets, many changes are expected to be in store (and some have already taken place) for the organization, though the turnover might not extend to the dugout.  During an introductory media event with Cohen and team president Sandy Alderson with MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and other reporters in a Zoom call, Alderson said that manager Luis Rojas was “very likely” to remain in his current role for the coming season.

Rojas was unexpectedly thrust into the manager’s job last January after the Mets and newly-hired manager Carlos Beltran parted ways due to controversy over Beltran’s role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.  Rojas was already on the Mets staff as the quality control coach and had previously interviewed for the managerial position before Beltran was hired.

It was Rojas’ first time as a Major League manager, and he could hardly have been thrust into a more chaotic situation given both the events of the 2020 season and all of the behind-the-scenes tumult with the Mets.  The club posted only a 26-34 record last year, though it is hard to tell how much (if any) Rojas can be faulted for the lack of results, considering the shortened season, multiple injuries to the pitching staff, and perhaps just an overall insufficient roster.

Clearly Alderson and Cohen agree that Rojas should be given a fuller opportunity to manage the team, but with one important caveat.  Alderson said he “left the door slightly ajar” for a managerial change if the team’s incoming new president of baseball operations would prefer to make his own hire.  Considering most executives indeed prefer to have their own personnel in place, this is no small detail about Rojas’ potential future, though the fact that Rojas wasn’t among the first wave of departures from the organization is a sign that Alderson and Cohen don’t feel a change is immediately necessary.

Alderson and Cohen are quite familiar with Rojas, whose long career as a coach and manager in the Mets’ minor league system predates both Cohen becoming a minority owner (in 2012) and Alderson being hired as the GM in 2010.  Rojas’ contract is only guaranteed through the 2021 season, though the Mets have club options on his services for at least 2022 and 2023.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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A potentially intriguing offseason awaits the Giants, who are positioned to be one of the winter’s more aggressive teams depending on how they approach their long-term spending.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Evan Longoria, 3B: $43MM through 2022 (includes $5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
  • Johnny Cueto, SP: $27MM through 2021 (includes $5MM buyout of $22MM club option for 2022)
  • Buster Posey, C: $24.4MM through 2021 (includes $3MM buyout of $22MM club option for 2022)
  • Brandon Belt, 1B: $16MM through 2021
  • Brandon Crawford, SS: $16MM through 2021
  • Wilmer Flores, INF: $3.25MM through 2021 (includes $250K buyout of $3.5MM club option for 2022)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • None

Free Agents

President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi spent his first two seasons trying to work around the Giants’ long list of guaranteed contracts, but the light can be seen at the end of this financial tunnel.  Evan Longoria is the only player on the books beyond the 2021 season, providing the Giants with quite a bit of room to maneuver going forward and giving them an advantage in an offseason where most teams will limit their spending.

The question, of course, is whether Zaidi will pursue bigger-scale moves this winter or next.  Other than simply acknowledging how payroll “flexibility….will certainly be helpful to us in the current marketplace,” Zaidi hasn’t made any bold statements about his offseason plans, as one might expect.  The Giants suffered revenue losses themselves, and a full-bore splurge of major signings and trades for expensive players might not yet be feasible for the team, nor does such a tactic seem to fit Zaidi’s M.O. for roster construction.

There’s also the matter of the big contracts still on the roster for the coming season, but these deals aren’t quite as onerous as they seemed even a year ago.  Brandon Crawford rebounded nicely from a mediocre 2019 season.  Brandon Belt was quietly one of the better hitters in baseball, ranking fifth among all MLB hitters with a 173 wRC+ (min. 170 plate appearances).  Even Longoria still provided his customary strong third base defense despite a below-average offensive year, though his Statcast metrics indicate that Longoria may have been one of the league’s unluckier hitters.

Beyond these veteran contributions, San Francisco also benefited from continued brilliance from the more unheralded members of its roster.  Maybe Zaidi doesn’t need to spend big in free agency if his front office’s continual flurry of seemingly low-level roster moves keeps finding the likes of MVP candidate Mike Yastrzemski, Donovan Solano, Alex Dickerson, or Darin Ruf.

The result is a team that suddenly looks pretty set in terms of position players, prompting Zaidi to suggest he’ll focus primarily on “complementary” position players.  Dickerson, Mauricio Dubon, and Yastrzemski will patrol the outfield with Ruf and Austin Slater as the first choices for platoon/bench duty.  Longoria, Crawford, Solano, and Belt hold down the regular infield slots with Wilmer Flores getting a lot of action at first or second base (or at DH, if the position exists for NL teams in 2021) and Ruf probably also in the first base mix.

While Solano, Flores, and even Dubon offer some positional versatility, needs might include a proper utility infielder who could be a feasible shortstop option if Crawford was injured.  Daniel Robertson performed pretty well in his limited time as a Giant, and though that might not be enough for San Francisco to tender him a contract, the team could explore re-signing him on a cheaper deal.  Ideally, the Giants would probably prefer to add a left-handed hitter since they’re already heavy on righty bats.

Catcher isn’t necessarily a question mark in terms of personnel, but it’s definitely the biggest unknown in terms of what the Giants can expect.  After undergoing hip surgery late in the 2018 season, Buster Posey didn’t look right for much of 2019 and then opted out of playing in 2020.  It’s anyone’s guess as to what the former NL MVP can produce as he heads into his age-34 season.

Posey projects as the starting catcher while star prospect Joey Bart is likely to start 2021 in the minor leagues to get more seasoning after struggling in his first taste of MLB competition.  Zaidi implied that the team could look to add a veteran backup for Posey while Bart gets some Triple-A time, or could turn to internal options like Chadwick Tromp or Aramis Garcia (who is returning from a hip surgery of his own).

If the Giants have plenty to work with around the diamond, the opposite is true in the starting rotation.  Johnny Cueto was inconsistent in his first full season back after Tommy John surgery.  Tyler Beede will be back after missing a season of his own due to TJ surgery, and Logan Webb and Tyler Anderson will return as middle-to-back-of-the-rotation types.

Beyond that quartet, there isn’t much depth, experienced or otherwise.  Kevin Gausman, Trevor Cahill, Drew Smyly, and Jeff Samardzija are all free agents, leaving some major holes to fill and some major innings to replace.  Smyly and Cahill were limited by injuries but pitched well when healthy, with Smyly working mostly as a traditional starter and Cahill pitching as both a starter and as a reliever.

Zaidi has already said that the Giants are making a “priority” of re-signing Gausman and Smyly, and the first step in that direction was taken when San Francisco issued Gausman a qualifying offer.  If Gausman simply accepts, the Giants will have him back on a one-year, $18.9MM contract, though if the team pursues a multi-year contract, the 2021 payroll would take less of a hit.  This could be something of a replay of Jose Abreu and the White Sox last winter, when Abreu accepted the QO but then worked out an extension with the team after the fact.

The fact that the Giants are willing to pay Gausman $18.9MM even for one season is indicative of a few things.  It speaks to the team’s need for pitching, naturally, and also to how well Gausman pitched in his first year in San Francisco.  In the larger picture, it hints that the Giants may indeed be willing and able to spend this offseason; if Gausman rejects the qualifying offer and signs elsewhere, then that theoretically leaves at least $18.9MM that the Giants will have to direct in some fashion towards the roster.

Those funds could be split up among multiple players rather than a single name.  (For example, the total price tag on Gausman, Smyly, Anderson, and Cahill last offseason didn’t even total $18.9MM.)  Whether Gausman re-signs or not, expect the Giants to extend low-cost, one-year contracts to a veteran hurler or two.

But, let’s think a bit bigger.  Looking at the free-agent pitching market, Trevor Bauer is the clear top option.  His stated preference for a team that is both analytically-inclined and willing to let him pitch every fourth day could make him a fit in San Francisco, as Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler have both shown that they’re ready to think outside the box.  Bauer has walked back his previous declarations about only seeking one-year contracts, but the Giants have the payroll space to accommodate both a deal for just 2021 (Samardzija and Zack Cozart’s expiring contracts represent over $30MM coming off the books) or for multiple seasons.

Marcus Stroman is also likely to score a big multi-year contract (though Stroman also has a QO decision to make and he didn’t pitch in 2020 after opting out of the season), but MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents doesn’t project any other starter to earn more than $39MM, with Masahiro Tanaka and Jake Odorizzi both hitting that threshold on three-year deals.  Could the Giants hedge their bets slightly by making a Tanaka/Odorizzi-esque signing that would provide the rotation with a clear upgrade, yet still not represent a truly bank-breaking investment?

Going to the other side of the pitching department, the Giants plan to add at least one veteran reliever, so they could direct some funds towards bolstering the pen.  GM Scott Harris recently indicated that the club would prefer to develop a closer rather than sign one, but the Giants have the money to pursue a Liam Hendriks or a Brad Hand if they wish.  The Indians’ recent decision to waive Hand (and the subsequent decision of the other 29 teams to not claim him) suggests that there might not be much appetite for spending on relief pitching this winter, so San Francisco could gain an edge on the market by offering relievers contracts even slightly closer to what they would expect to receive in a more normal offseason environment.

Despite ostensibly being in a mini-rebuild over Zaidi’s two seasons, the team has been decently competitive.  The 2020 Giants fell just one game shy of reaching the postseason.  Provided that the lineup keeps hitting as it did last season, it isn’t out of the question to think that the Giants are a pitcher or two away from making some noise in October in 2021.  The offseason possibilities are just about endless for Zaidi, Harris and company….depending on how far ownership is willing to stretch the payroll in this particular winter.  Arguments can be made for going big or going small.  The likeliest course could lie in the middle — taking legitimate steps toward emerging as a contender without quickly bogging themselves down with another slate of untenable long-term contracts.

Pirates Release Dovydas Neverauskas; Nick Burdi Elects Free Agency

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Nov. 9: Burdi has rejected his outright assignment in favor of free agency, Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic tweets. It’s still possible that he could return to the club on a new minor league deal, of course, but he’ll have the option of speaking with other clubs as he goes through the early stages of his rehab process.

Nov. 7: The Pirates have outrighted right-hander Nick Burdi to Triple-A, according to the MLB.com transactions page.  In another move for the Bucs earlier this week, right-hander Dovydas Neverauskas was released.  Both pitchers were recently designated for assignment.

Burdi will remain in the organization as he recovers from Tommy John surgery in October.  The 27-year-old will miss the entire 2021 season, the latest major injury setback in a career that has already seen Burdi undergo a previous TJ procedure as well as a thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.  Burdi has just 12 1/3 career MLB innings to his name, including 2 1/3 frames of work with Pittsburgh in 2020.

Neverauskas’ release could pave the way for a contract with a team in Asia, as Pirates GM Ben Cherington hinted last Monday.  Originally signed by the Pirates way back in 2009, Neverauskas is still pretty young (turning 28 in January) as he moves into this potential new phase of his pro career.  Over 80 2/3 career Major League innings, Neverauskas posted a 6.81 ERA, 2.20 K/BB, 8.6 K/9, and an ugly 2.2 HR/9.

Jeff Luhnow Sues Astros For Breach Of Contract

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Former Astros president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow has filed a lawsuit against his former team for breach of contract, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports.  Luhnow was fired last January after details of the infamous sign-stealing scandal became publicly known via a league report, which alleged that Luhnow had at least some knowledge of the wrongdoing and (as the GM) was ultimately responsible for the actions of his employees.

In July 2018, Luhnow signed a contract extension that would have kept him in Houston through the 2023 season.  The value of this extension wasn’t known, but Luhnow’s lawsuit claims the contract was worth “more than $31 million,” and that Luhnow’s firing cost him “more than $22 million in guaranteed compensation” as well as other benefits.

Some of the details of Luhnow’s lawsuit resemble statements his profession of innocence in an interview with KPRC’s Vanessa Richardson last month.  Luhnow’s lawsuit alleges he was fired without cause, claiming that three documents used by the league as evidence against him in regards to his knowledge of the sign-stealing plan don’t directly mention “in-game electronic sign stealing.”  For Luhnow’s most extensive public defense, check out his interview for Ben Reiter’s podcast.

Luhnow became “the scapegoat for the [Astros] organization” in the wake of the league’s investigation, which the lawsuit describes as “a negotiated resolution” between Astros owner Jim Crane and Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred.  According to the suit…

“The commissioner vetted potential penalties with Crane, and the two exchanged a series of proposals.  Those negotiations proved beneficial to Crane and the Astros.

“The commissioner allowed the Astros to keep their 2017 World Series championship, imposed a $5 million fine (a fraction of the revenues Crane had reaped as part of the team’s recent success), and took away four draft picks. He also issued a blanket vindication of Crane, absolving him of any responsibility for failing to supervise his club.

“Moreover, Crane and the Astros were assured of fielding a contending team in 2020 — the team advanced to the American League Championship Series for the fourth straight year — because the commissioner did not suspend or penalize any of the players who were directly involved in the scandal.”

Luhnow and then-manager A.J. Hinch were also both issued season-long suspensions for their roles in the sign-stealing scandal, though the two men were fired the same day as the league’s report was released.  Alex Cora, the Astros’ former bench coach and one of the architects of the sign-stealing plan, was also fired from his job as the Red Sox manager the next day and was later suspended for the 2020 season.  (Carlos Beltran, then an Astros player who was also one of the chief organizers of the sign-stealing procedures, was also fired from his newly-installed position as manager of the Mets due to the fallout from the scandal, though Beltran faced no league discipline.)

Hinch and Cora, of course, returned to managing almost immediately after their suspensions were over — Hinch is now managing the Tigers while Cora was re-hired by the Red Sox.  Luhnow’s lawsuit also alleges that Astros director of advanced information Tom Koch-Weser is “the ringleader of the Astros’ sign-stealing schemes” and a source of false information about Luhnow in the league’s report, claiming Manfred “let the ringleader keep his position in exchange for providing information that would implicate Luhnow.”

AL East Notes: Shoemaker, Rays, Mets, Dominguez, O’s

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Right-hander Matt Shoemaker is drawing interest from multiple teams in free agency, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets, including the Red Sox.  It’s probably safe to assume that pitching-needy Boston will be looking at several arms as it tries to rebuild the rotation, and Shoemaker is the kind of lower-cost veteran hurler that would offer some upside.

Shoemaker missed most of 2019 due to a torn ACL and then missed around a month of the 2020 season due to shoulder inflammation.  This led to only 57 1/3 total innings for Shoemaker over the last two seasons with the Blue Jays, though he had good numbers (a 3.14 ERA, 2.78 K/BB rate, and 7.8 K/9) when he was on the mound.  Shoemaker’s performance 2019 was significantly better than his 2020, however, as home run problems plagued him this past season.

More from around the AL East…

  • The Mets are looking for both a president of baseball operations and a general manager to work under Sandy Alderson, and Rays special assistant Bobby Heck has been mentioned as a potential candidate on the Mets’ radar.  However, the New York Post’s Mike Puma reports that despite those rumors about Heck being “in play for the top position, an industry source on Saturday indicated he likely won’t be the Mets’ choice.”  Whether this means Heck isn’t being considered for any sort of front office position with the Mets isn’t yet known.  (Specific wording may be a factor here, as if president of baseball ops is “the top position,” Heck could still be a GM candidate.)  Another interesting wrinkle is some potential animosity between new Mets owner Steve Cohen and Rays majority owner Stuart Sternberg, as Puma hears that Sternberg “isn’t particularly fond” of Cohen.  Of course, any possible discord doesn’t necessarily mean the two teams wouldn’t do any business, but Puma opines that it could be an obstacle if the Mets were to ask Sternberg for permission to speak with Rays GM Erik Neander.
  • Jasson Dominguez is the Yankees’ top prospect and one of the more intriguing young players in all of baseball, though the 17-year-old has yet to actually begin his professional career.  Inked to a $5.1MM bonus as the 2019-20 international signing window opened, Dominguez’s first year as a Yankee has been interrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, and thus he has been mostly spent his time training and working out at a baseball academy in his native Dominican Republic.  “I expected to play my first professional season and get to experience what that felt like,” Dominguez told MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez.  “I wanted to live the experience, but COVID changed everything….What I’ve learned, and what I think everyone in the world is learning, is how to adapt and live with what is happening.”
  • With five open spots on their 40-man roster, the Orioles have some room to maneuver before November 20, when they must set their 40-man in advance of December’s Rule 5 Draft.  The Baltimore Sun’s Nathan Ruiz looks at eight eligible prospects the O’s might be looking to protect in the draft, assuming the Orioles use all five open roster spots on their own players and not any external additions or minor leaguers they might themselves draft out of another team’s system.

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