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MLBTR Poll: Will The National League Have The DH In 2021?

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For the first time since 1972, both the American League and National League played a season under a uniform set of rules.  The institution of the universal designated hitter was one of several concessions made to the unusual circumstances of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, as with pitchers already facing a heightened injury risk from a lack of normal preseason preparation time, the decision was made to spare the pitchers the extra stress of hitting.  Both the league and the players’ union agreed that the DH would become a full-time feature of National League baseball for the first time ever.

What was the reaction?  Well, it probably depended on how you felt about the DH in the first place.  It didn’t quite stand out as much as other oddities of 2020 baseball (i.e. the automatic runner on second base in extra innings, or seven-inning games in doubleheaders) since the DH has been part of the game for almost 50 years, yet some fans of National League teams surely felt unusual watching games played in their favorite team’s ballpark without a pitcher coming to the plate.  If you’re a fan of the Dodgers, Braves, or Padres, you probably learned to love the DH — having an extra lineup spot to house a big bat was a key reason why these three playoff-bound clubs scored the most runs of any team in baseball.

DH-free baseball has long been on the decline at many levels of the game, and the thought was that the universal designated hitter would eventually become part of Major League Baseball.  With the current collective bargaining agreement expiring after the 2021 season, it has long been assumed that the universal DH would be one of the many issues to be debated between the owners and players.  The 2020 implementation was considered to be a first step in that direction, and since the experiment seemed to work well, could the league and the MLBPA simply skip ahead and make the designated hitter permanent in National League baseball?

It won’t be quite so easy, of course.  Commissioner Rob Manfred recently said that all rule changes applied only to the 2020 season, so any further changes like a universal DH would have to be settled after another round of negotiation between the league and the players.  With the CBA talks looming and the contentious tone of the negotiations prior to the start of the shortened season still lingering, there may be no such thing as an “easy” decision between MLB and the MLBPA these days.  It is quite likely that the league will try to gain some concessions from the union in exchange for the universal DH, and given how loathe the players have been to concede any ground to the owners, it may be difficult to find common ground on one relatively small issue without opening the larger can of worms that is the myriad of questions facing the sport in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Manfred’s statement about the DH and likelihood of a 2021 rules reset could also be a way of addressing the concerns of National League general managers.  As the Padres’ A.J. Preller recently noted in regards to his team’s club option with Mitch Moreland, the Padres are a little unsure about how to proceed with deciding on Moreland or other roster matters until they know whether or not the designated hitter slot will be available.  If the rules will revert to their pre-2020 state, Manfred was essentially telling Preller and company to prepare as if there won’t be a DH….until, maybe, there is?

As we get closer to Opening Day 2021, MLB will have a better idea of how (or if) the next season will proceed, whether that manifests in another shortened season, fans in the stands, or many other factors related to the state of the pandemic.  It could be that the 2020 rules are re-implemented around, say, early March if it becomes apparent that a normal 162-game schedule isn’t feasible.

But, many player agents and MLBPA members are undoubtedly aware that the lack of a DH spot will mean fewer roster opportunities for players this offseason.  Players like Moreland could have their options declined, defensively-challenged veterans will be less in demand, and even some of the bigger-name designated hitters will again see their markets limited to the American League.  Like MLBTR’s Steve Adams observed in regards to Nelson Cruz, the slugger’s desire for a two-year contract would be much easier to find if all 30 teams were candidates (at least on paper) to sign Cruz this winter.

With all these factors in mind, do you think the league and the players will work out a deal for a universal DH in 2021, or will the National League get at least one more years of pitchers at the plate? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

Will The Universal DH Be Used In 2021?
Yes 72.29% (9,119 votes)
No 27.71% (3,496 votes)
Total Votes: 12,615

Latest On Orioles, Mike Elias

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10:43PM: A league spokesperson released a statement to media (including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com) in regards to the Daily News story, saying “Major League Baseball is completely comfortable with the Orioles’ coaching designations for the 2020 season, which are not only consistent with the terms of the pension plan but were approved in advance by MLB and shared prior to the start of the season with representatives from the Major League Baseball Players Association.  The suggestion that there is an ongoing investigation that could result in discipline is simply false.”

9:32PM: The MLB Players Association is currently investigating a complaint involving Orioles general manager and executive vice-president Mike Elias and pitching director Chris Holt, Bill Madden of the New York Daily News reports.  The matter has to do with Holt’s inclusion on a list of Orioles coaches who qualify for the pension plan between the union and the league.

Teams are permitted to place four coaches per year on the pension plan, “which includes lucrative medical benefits and life insurance,” as well as a players’ licensing check worth somewhere between $40K-$60K.  Madden says only full-time, uniformed coaches are eligible for inclusion, however, and Holt didn’t meet this criteria as the team’s pitching director.

Holt spent much of the 2020 season working at the Orioles’ alternate training site, as Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun notes that the COVID-19 pandemic scuttled the team’s original plan for Holt’s role — a normal season would have seen Holt work throughout the organization with both big league and minor league pitchers.  The other three Baltimore coaches listed (third base coach Jose Flores, hitting coach Don Long, and field coordinator/catching instructor Tim Cossins) spent the season working with the Major League team.

Elias is involved in the matter since, as the Orioles’ GM, he was responsible for naming the four coaches to the pension plan.  The MLBPA’s pension committee is reviewing the complaint, and it is yet unclear what type of punishment could be levied.  At worst, Elias could face a charge of pension fraud, a lawyer with experience of the MLBPA pension plan tells Madden, if it is ruled that Elias included Holt on the four-coach list despite knowing Holt wasn’t eligible.

Holt and Elias previously worked together in the Astros organization when Elias was Houston’s assistant GM, and Holt was one of Elias’ earliest hires after becoming Baltimore’s general manager following the 2018 season.  Holt worked as the Orioles’ minor league pitching coordinator in 2019 before being promoted to his current role, and there has been speculation that Holt could become the team’s pitching coach for 2021.

Athletics Part Ways With Third Base Coach Al Pedrique

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The A’s won’t be bringing third base coach Al Pedrique back for the 2021 season, The Athletic’s Alex Coffey reports (Twitter link).  This is expected to be the only change made to the Oakland coaching staff, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Pedrique has been a coach with the Athletics for the last three seasons, working as a first base coach in 2018-19 before shifting across the diamond to the third base box in 2020.  Pedrique might be best known for his 83-game stint as the Diamondbacks’ interim manager in 2004, though the 60-year-old has over 25 years of coaching and managing experience at the minor league and Major League levels, as well as a special assistant job in the Astros’ front office from 2005-07.  Before being hired in Oakland, Pedrique previous worked as a big league coach with Arizona in 2004 (as a third base coach) and with Houston from 2009-11 (third base coach and bench coach).

According to Pedrique via Coffey, the Athletics would “like to give someone else within the organization a chance” in a coaching role.  Slusser thinks Mark Kotsay, currently the quality control coach, could be a candidate for the third base coach job, though she also suggests the A’s could go outside the organization for a familiar face.  Chip Hale, who previously worked four years on Oakland’s coaching staff, recently became available after being let go from his third base coaching job with the Nationals earlier this month.

Quick Hits: LeMahieu, Angels, Dombrowski, Pino, Crawford

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Don’t count on a reunion between DJ LeMahieu and the Rockies.  Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post recently contacted “those close to LeMahieu” to gauge the chances of the free agent returning to his former team, and “was told that while [LeMahieu is] keeping his options open, he doesn’t see the Rockies as a good fit for him.”  LeMahieu spent seven seasons with the Rox from 2012-18, a stretch that saw him make three All-Star appearances, win two Gold Gloves, and capture the 2016 NL batting title.

After leaving Coors Field to sign with the Yankees in the 2018-19 offseason, however, LeMahieu hit another level, posting MVP-type numbers over his two seasons in the Bronx.  It’s certainly possible that LeMahieu simply remains in New York, though several teams are bound to inquire about his services — that is to say, teams with more available payroll and perhaps closer to immediate contention than the Rockies.

As we await tomorrow’s Game 3 of the World Series, some more from around the baseball world…

  • Multiple reports linked Dave Dombrowski was a favorite to take over the Angels’ front office, though after almost a month, there hasn’t been much new information on that front.  In fact, in an appearance on Jon Heyman’s Big Time Baseball podcast (audio link), USA Today’s Bob Nightengale believes Dombrowski will “absolutely not” end up in Anaheim.  Both Heyman and Nightengale think Dombrowski might remain in Nashville, where he is part of a group vying to bring an expansion team to the Music City, with Nightengale opining that the Phillies could also potentially be a fit for Dombrowski as a win-now team.  As for the Angels’ job, Nightengale thinks their search is “wide open“at this point.  Earlier reports have suggested that the Angels are just beginning their search, and Nightengale thinks a new front office boss might not be in place until close to Thanksgiving.
  • 16-year-old Cuban outfielder Luis Pino worked out for scouts this week in the Dominican Republic, and ESPN.com’s Enrique Rojas (Spanish language link) reports that the Athletics and Rays are the favorites to land Pino when the international signing window opens on January 15.  The Giants, Cubs, White Sox, Red Sox and Padres have also shown interest in Pino, who seems likely to command a bonus of $1MM or more.
  • Longtime Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2020, rebounding from a down year both offensively and defensively in 2019.  As NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic notes, Crawford’s return to form solidified the Giants’ shortstop situation, and the team can now be more confident that Crawford can still be a productive player as he heads into his age-34 campaign.  2021 will also be the final year of Crawford’s contract with San Francisco, however, and the Giants have a star shortstop prospect in Marco Luciano coming down the pipeline.  Luciano could potentially be ready for a regular role by 2022, so it remains to be seen if Crawford will only be a bridge to Luciano or if the veteran could potentially still land another deal to stay in the orange and black.

NL Central Notes: Betts, Brewers, Venable, Tigers, Pirates

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Could Mookie Betts have blossomed to stardom in a Brewers uniform?  It could have been a reality if former Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin had had his way, as he tried to acquire Betts from the Red Sox in 2013 in exchange for closer Francisco Rodriguez, according to MLB.com’s Adam Berry and Adam McCalvy.  As a fifth-round pick for Boston in the 2011 draft, “Mookie sort of went under the radar if you went by the so-called MLB Pipeline or whatever.  I don’t think at the time he was in their top 10-15 prospects,” Melvin said.  Both the Brewers’ analytics and scouting departments agreed on Betts’ potential, however, so the pitch was made to then-Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington, who wisely declined the offer.

Betts was already in the midst of a big season at the A-ball levels in 2013, and Cherington recalls that by season’s end, Betts’ “name was the first one” mentioned by other clubs in trade negotiations.  “Doug Melvin was the first to ask, so I always give Doug credit.  He was the first one to ask for him,” Cherington said.

While Milwaukee fans take a moment to sigh ruefully, let’s look at some other items from around the NL Central…

  • Cubs third base coach Will Venable spoke with the Tigers about their managerial vacancy, NBC Sports Chicago’s Gordon Wittenmyer reports.  Venable was first cited as a potential candidate for the Tigers job back in September, and Venable has also recently interviewed with the Red Sox about their managerial job.  Beyond the Red Sox and Tigers, “other clubs also have sought the Cubs’ permission to talk with Venable about other, non-managerial openings in their organizations,” Wittenmyer writes.  A veteran of nine MLB seasons, Venable has spent the last three years in Wrigleyville as a special assistant to Theo Epstein, as well as a first base and third base coach.  This is the second straight winter that Venable has been a popular candidate, as the Cubs considered him for their own manager’s job last offseason, and the Astros and Giants also interviewed him for their managerial openings.
  • The Pirates have 19 players eligible for arbitration this offseason, the most of any team in baseball.  At least some of those names won’t be back in Pittsburgh in 2021, as The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel thinks as many as six players could be non-tendered and several others are trade candidates.  Interestingly, Biertempfel cites Trevor Williams as a potential non-tender, on the heels of a season that saw Williams get off to a good start but then struggle to finish with a 6.18 ERA over 55 1/3 innings, with a league-high 15 homers allowed.  Williams received some trade interest from at least one team (the Blue Jays) back in August, so it’s possible Toronto or another club could have some talks with the Pirates before the non-tender deadline.  Williams had a pair of solid seasons in 2017-18 and is entering his age-29 season with two years of team control remaining.  MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Williams to earn between $3.2MM and $4.6MM through the arbitration process this winter.

Angels Have Early Interest In Didi Gregorius

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The Angels have done some “advance work” on shortstop Didi Gregorius, George A. King III of the New York Post writes.  Gregorius won’t officially hit free agency until five days after the completion of the World Series, of course, but it’s safe to assume the Halos and every other team in baseball are already preparing offseason shopping lists.

In the Angels’ case, shortstop will be a clear need since Andrelton Simmons is also headed for free agency.  While Simmons suffered through an injury-shortened season, Gregorius played in all 60 of the Phillies’ games and hit .284/.339/.488 with 10 home runs over 237 plate appearances.  It was a nice bounce-back season for Gregorius, who missed over two months of the 2019 campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

The left-handed hitting Gregorius would add some balance to a predominantly right-handed Angels lineup, and represents a hitting upgrade over Simmons, though not a big upgrade.  Since the start of the 2017 season, Gregorius has hit .270/.318/.477 with 78 homers over 1720 PA to Simmons’ 32 home runs and .281/.329/.401 slash line over 1798 PA.  On the flip side, Los Angeles would making a trade-off on defense — while Gregorius has wielded a generally solid glove over his career, he obviously isn’t in the league of Simmons, who is one of the more celebrated defensive shortstops of all time.

Despite his down year in 2019, Gregorius was still offered multi-year contracts last winter before opting to sign a one-year, $14MM deal with Philadelphia.  He should be in line for a multi-year deal this offseason, albeit with the uncertainty of the sport’s tighter financial picture hanging over the free market.  Gregorius’ free agent stock could also be impacted by qualifying offer compensation, should the Phillies choose to issue him a QO and if Gregorius turned down the one-year, $18.9MM offer.

The Angels would certainly find Gregorius more attractive if they didn’t have to give up a draft pick to sign him, though Gregorius isn’t the only shortstop available.  Marcus Semien is also a free agent, and some intriguing options (Francisco Lindor, anyone?) exist on the trade market.  Plus, Los Angeles could opt to just use David Fletcher at shortstop and instead turn its attention to second base additions.

Padres Notes: Strahm, Coaches, Front Office

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Reliever Matt Strahm will undergo surgery on his right knee next week, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports (Twitter link), and the southpaw is expected to be recovered for by Spring Training.  Strahm is looking to fix his right patellar tendon, three years after undergoing a procedure on his left patellar tendon.  The right knee issues bothered Strahm throughout the season, Acee said, and led to an injured list stint in September.

Despite the injury, Strahm still had some effective bottom-line stats over 20 2/3 relief innings, posting a 2.61 ERA and 3.75 K/BB rate.  With the caveat of a small sample size, the left-hander also posted a career-low (6.5 K/9) strikeout rate, and the lack of missed bats led to some unimpressive ERA predictors (4.93 FIP, 5.01 xFIP, 4.24 SIERA).  It’s possible that between these numbers and any uncertainty over his knee situation, the Padres could look to non-tender Strahm, who is projected to earn between $1.6MM-$1.9MM in his second trip through the arbitration process.  On the other hand, the Padres might prefer to retain a member of their bullpen considering Trevor Rosenthal and Kirby Yates could depart in free agency, and Luis Perdomo will miss 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

The latest from San Diego…

  • In another tweet from Acee, the Padres aren’t planning to make any changes to their coaching staff.  One potential exception could be Skip Schumaker, if Schumaker receives any consideration for any of the managerial openings around baseball.  Schumaker worked in San Diego’s front office for two seasons before becoming a first base coach in 2018-19 and then serving under skipper Jayce Tingler in an “associate manager” position.  Schumaker was a candidate for the Mets’ managerial job last winter prior to New York’s (short-lived) hiring of Carlos Beltran.
  • The Padres won’t be renewing the contracts of 25 employees in the baseball operations department, the club announced today.  Most of the 25 employees were offered severance packages.  According to The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (Twitter link), many of the employees let go were in player development roles related to the Padres’ farm system, indicating “continued uncertainty about the minor leagues.”  It isn’t yet known if there will be any sort of normal minor league season in 2021, and even if there is, several minor league franchises are expected to be contracted as part of a more uniform, MLB-operated farm system.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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Has Francisco Lindor played his last game in an Indians uniform?  The shortstop’s fate is the biggest of several questions facing the Tribe this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Carlos Carrasco, SP: $27MM through 2022 (including $3MM buyout of $14MM club/vesting option for 2022 season)
  • Jose Ramirez, 3B: $11MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $11MM club option for 2022; also has a $13MM club option for 2023)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

  • Carlos Santana, 1B: $17.5MM club option ($500K buyout)
  • Brad Hand, RP: $10MM club option ($1MM buyout)
  • Roberto Perez, C: $5.5MM club option ($450K buyout)(deal also has $7MM club option for the 2022 season)
  • Domingo Santana, OF: $5MM club option ($250 buyout)

Free Agents

After winning 93 games but missing the postseason in 2019, the Tribe got back to the playoffs this year before being unceremoniously swept by the Yankees in the best-of-three wild card series.  Despite a .588 winning percentage since the start of the 2017 season, the Indians haven’t won a single postseason series in those four years, making one of the more successful stretches in franchise history seem like something of a disappointment.

Cleveland has both stretched and tried to manage its payroll to sustain this competitive window, trading such high-salaried notables as Trevor Bauer and Corey Kluber in 2019 to save some money and add some younger talent.  Even before the COVID-19 pandemic reduced revenues around baseball, the 2020-21 offseason was always projecting to be a transformative one for the Indians given how many key players (and key salaries) could be moved off the books.

We’ll begin with Lindor, who is entering his final year under team control.  Though neither side has ruled out the possibility of a contract extension, the writing has long been on the wall that the Indians won’t be able to afford the $200MM+ it would take to retain Lindor over the long term.  As such, this offseason represents the last and best opportunity for the Tribe to deal Lindor for a significant trade return, since waiting until next year’s trade deadline would greatly reduce the Indians’ asking price (and increases the risk of Lindor getting hurt or having a bad season).  Moving Lindor prior to Opening Day would also allow Cleveland to save at least $17.5MM in payroll, depending on how his arbitration number is figured.

There are several teams who figure to check in on Lindor’s services, if they haven’t already over the last couple of seasons.  Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, and Andrelton Simmons headline this winter’s free agent shortstop class, so Lindor could be seen as a preferable upgrade to that trio for shortstop-needy teams.

Is there a case to be made for keeping Lindor?  Certainly.  Looking at the finances first, Carlos Santana is likely to have his $17.5MM club option declined in the wake of a career-worst season for the veteran first baseman.  With Santana’s money coming off the books anyway, Lindor’s salary might not be seen as onerous for a club that has so little in the way of future contractual commitments.

Plus, trading Lindor for an acceptable return might not be quite so easy for Cleveland.  We’re only a year away from a potentially epic free agent shortstop class that could include Lindor himself along with Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, Trevor Story, and Corey Seager, so rival teams might prefer to acquire a one-year stopgap for 2021 before making the big splash at the position next year.  Trading for Lindor now would cost a team both young talent and money in the form of Lindor’s salary, whereas signing any of Semien, Gregorius, or Simmons costs only money, and less than Lindor’s projected arbitration cost.  Lindor is also coming off a down year by his standards (.258/.335/.415 with eight home runs over 266 plate appearances), which could make teams wary if they don’t write that performance off as a by-product of 2020’s unusual circumstances.

Cleveland doesn’t seem to have any inclination to rebuild, so having Lindor in the lineup would go a long way towards getting them back to the playoffs.  His average numbers in 2020 notwithstanding, Lindor is still one of baseball’s better players, and he has a particular importance on an offensively-challenged Cleveland team.  Part of the reason the Indians were willing to deal Bauer, Kluber, and Mike Clevinger was because of the club’s impressive ability to find and develop big league-ready pitching to restock the rotation, but Lindor is a much tougher player to replace.

MVP candidate Jose Ramirez and young slugger Franmil Reyes are the only sure things in a lineup that could be completely overhauled.  Beyond Lindor and Santana, Cesar Hernandez performed admirably as the Tribe’s second baseman but is headed for free agency.  Delino DeShields and/or Tyler Naquin could be non-tendered as the outfield continues to be a problem area.  At catcher, the Indians could roll with Roberto Perez and Austin Hedges and let Sandy Leon walk in free agency, or one of Perez or Hedges could be let go.

Keeping Lindor would add more stability to an overall unstable position player mix.  In the event that he is dealt, the Tribe could look internally to Yu Chang, Mike Freeman, or (with an aggressive promotion) prospect Tyler Freeman to fill the shortstop void, or Cleveland could themselves look to add a one-year veteran stopgap.  Chang or Mike Freeman could then be used at second base if Hernandez isn’t re-signed, though Hernandez has expressed interest in returning and might have a palatable enough asking price for the Tribe to explore a reunion.

Josh Naylor, acquired from the Padres as part of the Clevinger trade in August, will factor somewhere into the 2021 lineup, though it remains to be seen if the Canadian will be an everyday player at either left field or first base.  Jake Bauers could also be used at either position while Bobby Bradley is a first base candidate.  Star prospect Nolan Jones could also factor into the first base or corner outfield picture, as Jones is being worked out at other positions since Ramirez is occupies third base.

There are enough in-house candidates to provide the front office with some flexibility in their winter shopping.  If the outfield is a priority over second base, for example, the Indians could put their resources towards adding an outfielder and then making do with a Chang/Freeman platoon at the keystone.  The problem is, of course, that just about all of Cleveland’s internal candidates are either unproven at the MLB level or are coming off dreadful seasons.  (Oscar Mercado, for instance, went from Rookie Of The Year candidate in 2019 to possibly the worst hitter in baseball in 2020.)  While keeping Lindor helps this lineup, the lack of solid position player depth also serves as an argument for dealing him, since a trade might be the best method for the Tribe to acquire at least one younger, cheaper, MLB-ready regular.

Since spending will be a premium, the Tribe will be looking to find veterans at relative bargain prices.  The non-tender market is expected to be enormous, and every other team in baseball will also be hoping to scoop up lower-cost players from that same pool.  In a market where contract offers might be low across the board, the Indians have some attractive selling points for prospective free agents — plenty of opportunity for regular playing time, as well as the chance to play for a consistent contender with an elite pitching staff.

Speaking of that rotation, the Indians have the luxury of being able to focus much of their attention the position player side of the diamond thanks to their collection of arms.  Cleveland is one of the few teams that has the pitching depth to potentially make a starter available in a trade, and as the most expensive of the bunch, Carlos Carrasco might be the most obvious trade chip.  As Zack Meisel of The Athletic recently noted, however, Carrasco is such a clubhouse leader and important veteran voice on the perpetually young pitching staff that the team might see him as too valuable to move.  If the hitting is going to continue to be a question mark, the Tribe might also prioritize keeping their rotation as strong as possible.

Cleveland’s bullpen was almost as impressive as the starting staff in 2020.  Another contract with veteran southpaw Oliver Perez seems like a reasonable proposition, but Brad Hand’s $10MM club option looms as the relief corps’ biggest issue.  With James Karinchak positioned as a closer of the future, the Indians might prefer to install Karinchak now rather than pay $10MM to a reliever, even an outstanding one like Hand.  However, Hand is still such a quality pitcher that letting him go for nothing seems like something of a waste of an asset.

Exercising Hand’s option would at least allow the Indians the flexibility to explore trading him this winter, and if no deal could be found, $10MM for Hand might not be so hard to absorb if other salaries (i.e. Santana, Hernandez, Lindor) are also being moved out.  Cleveland could even explore packaging Lindor and Hand together in one blockbuster trade package, if another team wanted to make a big splash to contend in 2021.

With such a tremendous young rotation, the Indians’ window for a World Series is still open.  This offseason will be spent adding and subtracting from the lineup in search of the combination that will generate enough offense to give the pitching a chance.

Looking Back At The Randy Arozarena Trade

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For starters, yes, it’s now officially “The Randy Arozarena Trade.”

Arozarena has been the star of the Rays’ postseason run, hitting an incredible .382/.433/.855 with seven home runs over 60 plate appearances in these playoffs.  The 25-year-old outfielder’s performance earned him ALCS MVP honors, making him the first rookie position player in baseball history to ever be named MVP of a league championship series or World Series.

It’s pretty on-brand for the Rays’ style of roster-building that their October hero is someone a lot of fans probably had never heard of as recently as September.  For a team that is rightly credited for a strong minor league system, it’s a little surprising that so few members of Tampa Bay’s World Series roster are actually homegrown players — only seven of the 28 players came up entirely through the Rays’ pipeline, with the other 21 all acquired via signings or trades.

Case in point, Arozarena.  Back in January, the Rays and Cardinals completed a multi-player deal that, at the time, was best known as “the Jose Martinez trade” or even “the Matthew Liberatore trade.”  Tampa Bay sent top pitching prospect Liberatore, catching prospect Edgardo Rodriguez, and their draft pick in Competitive Balance Round B (which ended up 63rd overall) to St. Louis in exchange for Martinez, the Cards’ pick in Competitive Balance Round A (or the 37th overall pick) and a certain future ALCS MVP.

At the time, Martinez was easily the best-known quantity, having hit .298/.363/.458 with 41 homers over 1288 PA for the Cardinals in 2016-19.  If you had predicted in January that a player from this trade would help lead the Rays to the AL pennant, the assumption would have been that Martinez continued (or improved upon) the offensive production he delivered in St. Louis.  A move to the American League was long seen as a way to possibly fully unlock his potential, as the defensively-challenged Martinez would no longer have to worry about playing the field in a league with a designated hitter position.

As it turned out, Martinez didn’t even finish the season in Tampa.  After missing much of Summer Camp due to a positive COVID-19 test, Martinez hit .239/.329/.388 over 76 PA for the Rays and was traded to the Cubs in a deadline deal for two players to be named later.  Martinez then didn’t collect a single hit over 22 PA for Chicago, and now looks like he could be a non-tender candidate this winter.

It’s worth noting that Martinez didn’t hit as well in 2019 as he did in 2017-18, leading some Tampa fans to wonder why a 31-year-old DH type was the apparent headliner of a trade package for one of the Rays’ (and baseball’s) top prospects.  Liberatore was the 16th overall pick of the 2018 draft and a consensus top-65 prospect, and even accounting for the lost 2020 minor league season, there’s no reason to believe Liberatore couldn’t still become a quality MLB starter.  Liberatore could even factor into the Cardinals’ pitching plans for 2021, as president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said Liberatore impressed the team while working out at the alternate training site this summer.

Arozarena was a well-regarded prospect in his own right, but hardly a top-100 type or even one of the top-tier names in the Cardinals’ system alone; MLB Pipeline ranked Arozarena as the tenth-best St. Louis minor leaguer at the time of the trade.  Since the Cards were already overloaded with outfield candidates, it was more than understandable that Mozeliak and company jumped to unload some of that surplus while bringing back a promising minor league arm.  Granted, St. Louis fans might not agree with this logic based on immediate returns, as several Cards outfielders (such as Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas, and even top prospect Dylan Carlson) badly struggled at the plate in 2020 while Arozarena thrived in Tampa Bay.

As valuable of an asset as Liberatore was and still is, however, the Rays felt okay with moving a piece of their future for the win-now addition of some outfield bats.  This is where the Rays’ outstanding player development system really comes into play — Tampa Bay is comfortable in taking the risk in trading such prospects because the front office has confidence they can always draft, acquire, and develop more good players to fill that void.

In a baseball world that holds top-100 prospects in higher regard than ever before, the Rays have dealt three such players (Liberatore, Jesus Sanchez, and Nick Solak) since July 2019, bringing back the likes of Arozarena, Nick Anderson, Peter Fairbanks, and Trevor Richards in return.  All are controllable young players in their own right, and all have been able to contribute at the big league level more immediately, with Arozarena, Anderson, and Fairbanks in particular all being major components of Tampa’s push to the World Series.

The Rays/Cardinals trade is also perhaps instructional in considering just how much teams value draft position.  The concept of trading draft picks is still unusual in baseball terms (the Competitive Balance Round selections are the only picks that can be traded), though fans of the NFL, NBA, or NHL are very familiar with how much teams in those sports often have to surrender in order to trade up in those respective drafts.  A 26-spot jump in the draft was a big leap upwards for the Rays, who used that 37th overall pick on Arizona State shortstop Alika Williams.  St. Louis, meanwhile, took Arkansas high school pitcher Tink Hence with the 63rd overall pick.

Perhaps in a decade’s time, we’ll look back on this deal as “The Alika Williams Trade” or “The Tink Hence Trade,” or even “The Edgardo Rodriguez Trade.”  Since the swap has already led to at least an AL pennant, the Rays likely won’t be too upset if Hence, Rodriguez, or Liberatore end up being staples of the Cardinals’ roster.  While fans take stock of which teams “win” or “lose” trades, most front offices hope all their deals are win-win moves — it won’t help future trade negotiations, naturally, if other teams are too wary of a club who only trades away future underachievers.

The Rays do tend to come out on the better end of trades more often than not, however, which is why the low-payroll franchise is currently playing for a World Series title.  Every playoff champion seems to have at least one unheralded acquisition leading the way, and while Arozarena is but one of several such players on Tampa Bay’s roster, his immediate impact and long-term potential make him a particular success story for the Rays’ front office.

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