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Phillies Notes: Jean Segura, Payroll, Bryce Harper

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The Phillies came up short in their quest to win their third World Series title, ending a roller-coaster of a season with hot streaks, cold streaks, a managerial replacement, and an injury to their star player.  Despite all this tumult, Philadelphia danced their way to their first playoff appearance since 2011 and their first World Series berth since 2009, defeating the Cardinals, Braves, and Padres en route to the Fall Classic.

As the franchise pivots to off-season mode, they will have a few questions to answer starting with Jean Segura. Previously discussed in MLBTR’s 2022-23 Free Agent Series, Segura headlines a relatively weak second-base free agent class, and the Phillies currently hold a $17MM club option with a $1MM buyout on the veteran’s 2023 service. On the heels of a solid 2022 season which saw him post a .277/.336/386 slash line, the Phillies may opt to save money and use a combination of Edmundo Sosa and Bryson Stott to man second base, having rumored interest in long-time Red Sox Xander Bogaerts.

For his part, Segura has expressed a desire to remain in Philadelphia, having told the media, “to be honest, there’s nothing more special than playing in front of Phillies fans…It’s just a pleasure to be able to play in front of those amazing fans,” reports Tim Kelly of Phillies Nation. Segura went on to add that he “would love to finish my career in Philadelphia.”

The Phillies currently have an estimated 2023 Payroll of $161MM, per Roster Resource. After having spent $242MM this past season, the club is expected to continue to add to their core of Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber along with younger players such as Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm, and Stott.

For his part, Harper is sure that President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski and owner John Middleton are going to add to the team, telling reporters that “we’re gonna be the same team but with some more pieces to make us that much better,” per NBC Sports Philadelphia. Manager Rob Thomson shares a similar sentiment, telling reporters after the game that the Phillies roster is “sustainable,” going on to explain that Philadelphia has “a good group of veteran guys, and our system is starting to get loaded up with very good arms at the end of the minor league system,” per Maria McIlwain of The Philadelphia Inquirer.

Harper, despite being diagnosed with a tear in his right UCL in early May, slashed a strong .286/.364/.514 with 18 homers, earning his first trip to the All-Star game in a Phillies uniform. He missed additional time during the season, initially landing on the 10-day IL in late June with a fractured left thumb before being shifted to the 60-day IL in mid-August. Nevertheless, due to the introduction of the universal DH, the Phillies were able to use Harper in a DH-only fashion, salvaging a season from their star player. This rule change helped the Phillies reach the postseason, in which Harper slashed an outlandish .349/.414/.746 with 6 homers in 63 at-bats.

Now that the 2022 season is officially over, Harper’s rehabilitation plan will likely come to light in the upcoming days. Position players that have recently suffered damage to their UCL include Dodgers’ infielder Max Muncy at the end of the 2021 season and Rangers’ shortstop Corey Seager at the start of the 2018 season. Muncy opted not to undergo surgery and said that the recovery was not as quick as he had hoped and that six months after the injury, he wasn’t fully recovered. In contrast, Seager underwent surgery and missed the remainder of the season before returning for the 2020 season. Harper and the Phillies have not indicated which route he will take, but, depending on the severity of the injury, the start of his 2023 season may be delayed.

Chris Bassitt To Decline Mutual Option

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Mets’ starter Chris Bassitt is expected to decline his $19MM mutual option per Jon Heyman of the NY Post. Bassitt will receive a $150K buyout and head to free agency for the first time in his career.

Following a trade from the Athletics, Bassitt agreed to a one-year, $8.65MM contract with a $19MM mutual option for the 2023 season ($150K buyout if either team declined) in his final trip through the arbitration process. During his first season with New York, the 8-year veteran led the Mets in starts (30) and innings pitched (181 2/3) while pitching to a 3.42 ERA with a 22.4% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate, and a 49.1% groundball rate.

Bassitt, who will be 34 on Opening Day, has been a reliable pitcher over the last four seasons. Since 2019, he has made at least 27 starts (excluding the 2020 season) paired with a 3.31 ERA in 546 innings, a 23.2% strikeout rate, a 6.7% walk rate, and a 44.1% groundball rate.

On the heels of a strong season, the Mets will likely attach a Qualifying Offer to Bassitt (a one-year, $19.65MM contract). While this sum is more than double what Bassitt was paid in 2022, he will likely opt to find a longer contract with an annual salary similar to the value of the QO.

As for the Mets, they enter the 2022-23 offseason with big questions surrounding their rotation. Two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom and former All-Star Taijuan Walker both hold player options that they are expected to decline, and the Mets hold a $14MM club option on Carlos Carrasco’s 2023 services that they must make a decision on in the next few days. Tylor Megill is a candidate to fill one of the spots in the rotation, but owner Steve Cohen will likely open his wallet again this offseason to buff his team’s starting pitching.

Mets To Pick Up Daniel Vogelbach’s Club Option

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The Mets are reportedly picking up Daniel Vogelbach’s $1.5MM club option for the 2023 season, per Jon Heyman of the NY Post.

Acquired in a midseason trade from the Pirates, Vogelbach slashed a strong .255/.393/.436 in New York to finish his 2022 season with a collective .238/.360/.433 line with 18 homers across the two teams. Interestingly, Vogelbach spent the 2022 season as full-time DH, logging only five innings at first base after playing over 400 innings at the corner infield position in 2021.

After a breakout year in 2019 with Seattle where he hit .208/.341/.439 with 30 homers and earned a trip to the All-Star game, Vogelbach has bounced around the league, spending time with the Blue Jays, Brewers, Pirates, and now the Mets. He has largely become a platoon player, hitting .261/.382/.497 against right-handed pitchers in 2022, compared to .139/.262/.153 against lefties.

Vogelbach, who has one more arbitration-eligible season after 2023, may become a trade candidate for the Mets, who currently have three other 1B/DH options on their 40-Man Roster in Darin Ruf, Dominic Smith, and starter Pete Alonso. However, out of the trio of backups, Vogelbach had the strongest 2022 season and GM Billy Eppler might opt to keep him as a left-handed bench bat.

Twins To Pick Up Sonny Gray’s Team Option

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The Twins plan to pick up starter Sonny Gray’s $12.7MM team option for the 2023 season, per Jon Heyman of the NY Post.

Acquired at the start of the 2022 season from the Reds, Gray has been a solid presence in the Twins’ rotation. Across 24 starts (119 2/3 innings) the veteran right-hander pitched to a 3.08 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate, and 44.1% groundball rate.

However, Gray has been burdened by injuries in recent years, pitching over 140 innings in only two of his last six seasons, excluding the shortened 2022 season. In 2022, the righty spent time on the 10-day and 15-day IL with a right hamstring strain and a right pectoral strain, respectively. Additionally, Gray averaged just under five innings per start in 2022.

Nevertheless, when healthy, Gray has been a strong presence in the Twins’ rotation. In the second half of the season, the veteran pitched to an impressive 2.38 ERA in 56 2/3 innings. During this time, opposing batters hit a meager .212/.286/.335 against him.

As noted in MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook, Twins starters ranked 20th in the Majors with a 4.11 ERA and 27th with 782 2/3 innings in 2022. With Joe Ryan and Tyler Mahle returning, along with Kenta Maeda who spent the 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Twins have a formidable quartet of quality starters as they look to return to the top of the AL Central.

Tigers Hire Robin Lund As Assistant Pitching Coach

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The Tigers continue to add to their personnel, this time plucking Iowa pitching coach Robin Lund to work as an assistant pitching coach, reports Kendall Rogers of D1Baseball. The team has not confirmed the move. Lund had previously worked with Detroit’s pitching coach Chris Fetter and led one of the best collegiate pitching staffs. Evan Woodbery of MLive Media Group adds that Tigers’ bullpen coach Juan Nieves, who has the title of assistant pitching coach, is expected to return to the team and that manager A.J. Hinch had said that the Tigers might be flexible in how they fill out coaching roles for 2023.

Lund joins the Tigers after five seasons at Iowa. During the 2021-2022 season, the pitching staff ranked third in strikeouts per nine innings (11.2), fourth in ERA (3.72), and 11th in WHIP (1.29). Over the last seasons, seven Hawkeye pitchers have joined MLB organizations under Lund’s watch.

Lund’s most recent success story is South Dakota State transfer Adam Mazur who was named the Big Ten Pitcher of the Year after going 7-3 with a 3.07 ERA in 93 2/3 innings with 98 strikeouts. Mazur led a quartet of Hawkeyes selected in the 2022 MLB Draft, going in the second round (53rd overall) to the Padres.

Perhaps most notable for the Tigers is Lund’s kinesiology experience. Lund holds a Doctorate of Exercise Science and was an associate professor in the Department of Kinesiology at UNI from 2002-2018 studying biomechanics, anatomy, statistics, and research methods with a research focus on improving athletic performance. Last season, only one Tigers pitcher reached 20 starts, Tarik Skubal, with Tyler Alexander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Beau Brieske, and Matt Manning all missing time due to injuries.

Lund will work with a staff that pitched to a collective 4.05 ERA (10th highest), with a 19.8% strikeout rate (6th lowest) and 8.5% walk rate (12th highest).

Orioles Outright Anthony Bemboom

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Just a month after selecting Anthony Bemboom back to the Major League roster, the Orioles have once again outrighted the veteran backstop to Triple-A Norfolk, per MLB Transactions Log. Because he’s already been outrighted in his career, Bemboom had the right to elect free agency as soon as he cleared waivers. However, there is no indication that the catcher did so, and Roch Kubatko of MASN reports that Bemboom is expected to accept the assignment and compete for the backup job in spring training.

Beemboom had recently signed a split-rate contract with the Birds, paying the 32-year-old a varying rate depending on if he’s in the minors next season, reports Andy Kostka of The Baltimore Sun. During the 2022 season, Bemboom produced in a limited fashion, hitting .115/.207/.212 in 52 at-bats. He fared slightly better in Triple-A, slashing .228/.292/.350 line in 123 at-bats. However, those marks were below his career marks in Triple-A of 247/.340/.392.

Given his 2022 struggles, the Orioles might look to other backups for the budding star Adley Rutschman during the 2023 season. The Birds currently have Cam Gallagher and Mark Kolozsvary on their 40-man roster, however, neither has extensive Major League experience. The 29-year-old Gallagher has taken 420 at-bats over six seasons, hitting a weak .240/.302/.355, while the 27-year-old Kolozsvary has only appeared in ten games (all in the 2022 season), slashing .200/.238/.450.

With the offseason arriving, the Orioles are conducting typical roster maintenance. Removing Bemboom from the 40-man drops their tally to 36. Additionally, the Birds have John Means on the 60-day injured list, and he’ll need to be reinstated at the start of the offseason.

 

131 Players Reach Free Agency

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As announced by the MLB Players Association, 131 MLB players have officially reached free agency this morning. This list, including names like Aaron Judge, Jose Abreu, and Edwin Diaz, excludes players such as Jacob deGrom and Carlos Correa, who have until November 10th to decide on their opt-out. The Dodgers lead the list with ten free agents, headlined by starter Clayton Kershaw, while the Mets and the Yankees each have nine free agents. Conversely, both the Diamondbacks and the Marlins have no free-agent decisions released today.

Broken down in Mark Polishuk’s 2022-23 Offseason Preview, all eligible free players can officially file for free agency today. However, players who file for free agency are only able to negotiate with their current team. Before the free agent market officially opens on November 10th, teams and players must make decisions regarding club options, opt-outs, mutual options, and qualifying offers. The trade market also re-opens opens today. 

A complete list of 2022-23 MLB Free Agents can be found here.

Breakout Candidate: Bryan De La Cruz

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As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk discusses in his Miami Marlins Offseason Outlook, the Fish are still looking for quality hitters. Despite spending the 2021 offseason improving their outfield by bringing in Avisaíl García (four-year, $53MM) and Jorge Soler (three-year, $36MM), neither player had overly productive seasons, and the Marlins are still looking for their first potent outfield since the 2017 homegrown trio of Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, and Giancarlo Stanton. Like that 2017 Marlins outfield, the Fish might already have a future outfield building block on their team in 25-year-old Bryan De La Cruz.

Originally signed when he was 16-years-old by the Astros for $170K in 2013, De La Cruz made his Astros debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2014. He progressed quickly, joining Double-A Corpus Christi when he was only 20. However, De La Cruz had a challenging time adjusting to higher-level pitching and bounced between Low-A and Double-A during the 2017-2019 seasons before eventually reaching Triple-A Sugar Land in 2021 where he hit a robust .324/.362/.518.

At the 2021 Trade Deadline, the Astros traded De La Cruz to the Marlins as part of a package for reliever Yimi Garcia. When De La Cruz arrived in Miami, he continued his strong hitting slashing .296/.356/.427 (114 wRC+) in 199 at-bats. However, his 2022 season would not be as successful.

During the 2022 season, De La Cruz showed flashes of excellence, hitting .313/.476/.500 over his first 14 games before faltering and slashing .197/.229/320 from May through August. However, De La Cruz finished strong. In his final 85 at-bats, the righty mashed an extraordinary .388/.419/.718 with six homers and ten doubles. De La Cruz also spent time in Triple-A, mashing .320/.370/.620 in 50 at-bats. Collectively, De La Cruz finished the season with a positive .252/.294/.432 (104 wRC+) line, although marked by inconsistently.

Nevertheless, De La Cruz’s underlying metrics show promise. Out of all outfielders who had at least 300 plate appearances this past season, the righty had the ninth-highest HardHit rate (39.5%), greater than Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton, Kyle Schwarber, and Mookie Betts. Additionally, out of all outfielders with 300+ plate appearances, De La Cruz ranks second in Soft Contact, only behind MVP-favorite Aaron Judge. Statcast is even more bullish on De La Cruz’s bat, ranking him in the 82nd percentile for Average Exit Velocity, 84th percentile for Barrel%, and 86th percentile for HardHit Rate among all 2022 batters.

So, what is holding Bryan De La Cruz back?

While his 2022 strikeout rate is a bit above league average (25.4% vs. 22.4%), his 2022 walk rate is below league average (5.4% vs. 8.2%). However, a closer examination of De La Cruz’s walk rate shows a different story. De La Cruz generated 5 walks in his first 21 plate appearances (23.8%), and only 14 over and his next 334 plate appearances (4.2%). Thus, a limiting factor in De La Cruz’s offensive potential is his free-swing approach.

Statcast ranks De La Cruz in the 34th percentile for Chase Rate and 22nd percentile for Whiff%. Combined with a low propensity for walks, this lack of strike zone command hinders De La Cruz’s ability to fully utilize his bat.

Look no further than De La Cruz’s magical final 85 at-bats. During September and October, the outfielder dropped his strikeout rate to 21.3% and increased his walk rate to 5.3%, the second-highest mark for a month-long period during his 2022 season.

Additionally, when analyzing De La Cruz’s success during his stints in Triple-A Jacksonville and Sugar Land, it is clear that the righty can control the zone. During 2021 in Sugar Land, De La Cruz walked at a 5.8% clip but only struck out in 20.1% of all at-bats. Similarly, during his time in Jacksonville, the righty walked at a strong 7.4% and struck out at a 24.1% rate.

On the defensive side of the field, De La Cruz has split his time between all three outfield positions but is rated between slightly-below-average to below-average, depending on the metric (-1 by DRS, -5.8 by UZR, and -3 OAA). While he possesses slightly above-average sprint speed (62nd percentile) and outfielder jump (60th percentile), De La Cruz will likely develop into a corner outfielder with his strong arm reaching 96 mph during the 2022 season.

As with most young hitters, adjusting to Major League pitching takes time and patience. Early struggles controlling the strike zone are not rare, and De La Cruz’s raw talent has produced mammoth results, albeit inconsistently. With De La Cruz only arbitration-eligible after the 2024 season and making the league minimum, the Marlins have time to evaluate his growth.

Orioles Outright Aramis Garcia and Chris Ellis

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The Orioles have announced that they have outrighted catcher Aramis Garcia and pitcher Chris Ellis to Triple-A Norfolk. They now have 39 players on their 40-man roster.

Garcia was claimed from the Reds on October 15th, and quickly passed through the Orioles’ waivers. He was projected to earn only $800K during his first trip through arbitration, but Cincinnati opted to cut him loose with Tyler Stephenson entrenched as the team’s primary catcher. Garcia dealt with a left middle finger sprain during the 2022 season that forced him to the 60-day injured list, limiting the former second-round pick to 47 games where he slashed a weak .213/.248/.259 with a single homer. The 29-year-old has a better track record in Triple-A, where he has hit .264/.329/.447 across parts of four seasons.

The Orioles primarily relied on a combination of Robinson Chirinos and Anthony Bemboom to supplement Adley Rutschman in 2022. With Chirinos’ impending free agency, it is likely that Garcia will join Bemboom in competing for a backup catcher position in the spring, with the defeated remaining a depth piece in Triple-A.

Ellis, a former third-round pick, underwent season-ending arthroscopic shoulder surgery in early May after dealing with shoulder inflammation. He struggled in his two starts this year, pitching only 4 1/3 innings and allowing 5 runs while walking 6 batters before being placed on the injured list. Ellis is arbitration-eligible after the 2024 season.

Nevertheless, Ellis had a strong start to his Orioles career in 2021 after being waived by the Rays. With the Birds, he made six starts (25 1/3 innings) and pitched to a 2.49 ERA. However, advanced metrics weren’t so bullish, giving Ellis a high 5.22 FIP due in part to his low 15.2% strikeout rate and a high 12.4% walk rate. Additionally, Ellis has a career 6.02 ERA in 318 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level across parts of six seasons.

 

Tigers Hire Mark Conner As Amateur Scouting Director

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11:50am: The Tigers have confirmed Conner’s hiring.

8:36am: The Tigers have made another addition to their front office this offseason, reportedly plucking Mark Conner from the Padres to serve as the team’s amateur scouting director under recently hired assistant general manager Rob Metzler, per Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press.

Conner joined the Padres as an amateur scout in 2010 and was promoted to northeast regional supervisor in 2014 before eventually serving as the club’s scouting director during the 2015-2021 seasons. With the Padres, Conner helped draft Robert Hassell, CJ Abrams, Ryan Weathers, and MacKenzie Gore. He transitioned to a special assistant role for GM A.J. Preller in September 2021 and was given the task of evaluating every player within San Diego’s farm system.

The Tigers had been looking for a new scouting director since early October, when the new president of baseball operations Scott Harris fired Scott Pleis. Pleis had held the title of amateur scouting director since 2010. Conner inherits a rather poorly ranked Tigers farm system, with only three prospects in MLB.com’s Top-100 Prospect Rankings after the recent graduations of Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson. However, the team will have a strong draft pick after finishing the 2022 season with a 66-96 record. MLB.com projects that the Tigers have the sixth-highest chance (7.5%) of landing the first overall pick in the 2023 draft.

Conner’s addition to the Tiger’s front office is another retooling of the staff built by former general manager Al Avila. Recent additions include Scott Harris as president of baseball operations and Rob Metzler as vice president and assistant general manager. Additionally, the team is looking to add a general manager.

In the dugout, manager A.J. Hinch has also been hard at work retooling his staff, with hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh and quality control coach Josh Paul both departing the organization.

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