The Opener: Ohtani, Eovaldi, MLBTR Chat
We’ve already had one morning roster move, and here are three additional things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Ohtani to undergo testing:
On the heels of the two-way superstar’s agent discussing his client’s UCL injury with reporters, Shohei Ohtani exited yesterday’s game due to oblique discomfort. Manager Phil Nevin described Ohtani as “pretty sore” (as relayed by MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger) and while Sam Blum of The Athletic notes that the club did some preliminary testing last night, Nevin didn’t have enough information to share much of anything else.
With Ohtani already done pitching for the year and his agent indicating that some sort of elbow surgery is inevitable for him, even a relatively mild oblique strain could potentially see Ohtani’s season come to an end with so little time on the calendar remaining and an impending surgery looming. Even if Ohtani has suited up for the final time this season, he’s a strong candidate for the AL MVP award; in 599 trips to the plate this season, he’s slashed an incredible .304/.412/.654 — all while also posting a 3.14 ERA and 31.5% strikeout rate in 132 innings while on the mound.
2. Eovaldi to return:
Rangers right-hander Nathan Eovaldi is set to take the mound in Arlington for this evening’s game against the Astros. It will be Eovaldi’s first appearance in the big leagues since he went on the injured list with a forearm strain shortly after the All-Star break. The 33-year-old veteran’s return figures to be a massive boost to the Texas rotation, which added both lefty Jordan Montgomery and veteran ace Max Scherzer in his absence. In 19 starts prior to his injury this season, Eovaldi pitched like an ace in his own right, with a 2.69 ERA and 3.23 FIP in 123 2/3 innings of work. Eovaldi’s return could indicate the end of either right-hander Dane Dunning‘s or lefty Andrew Heaney‘s time in the rotation, though it’s also possible the Rangers could opt for a six-man rotation down the stretch in hopes of preserving the health of their veteran arms for a hopeful postseason run. Eovaldi himself could be on a pitch count early on; he’s been throwing bullpen sessions but is returning from a roughly six-week absence without making a minor league rehab appearance.
3. MLBTR Chat:
The end of the season is fast approaching, and the league’s 30 clubs are all pushing full steam ahead into the stretch run. While some teams are already looking ahead to 2024, many are focused on the current pennant chase, with more than half the league still boasting 20% or higher playoff odds, per Fangraphs. If you’re curious how your team will hold up over the season’s final month or what their plan for the future is, MLBTR’s Steve Adams is hosting a live chat with readers at 1pm CT today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.
AL Central Notes: Faedo, Robert, Varland, Bieber
The Tigers restructured their rotation recently, with the club’s current starting five being left-handers Eduardo Rodriguez, Tarik Skubal and Joey Wentz alongside right-handers Matt Manning and Reese Olson. That leaves right-hander Alex Faedo as the odd man out, and as manager AJ Hinch confirmed to reporters (including Evan Woodbery of MLive) recently that Faedo would be moving to the bullpen. Faedo received his first relief assignment last night, striking out one on 13 pitches in a single inning of work.
While Faedo was used as a single-inning reliever last night, Hinch indicated that his longer-term role for the Tigers going forward will be as a multi-inning reliever. Woodbery relays that “scheduled” relief appearances of two or three innings are one possibility for Faedo, as well as piggyback starts alongside Wentz. That duo would be a somewhat surprising combination, considering Faedo’s reverse splits this year; left-handed batters have slashed just .143/.209/.333 in 115 plate appearances against him, while righties have hit a far more impressive .266/.322/.505 in 118 trips to the plate.
Overall this season, Faedo has posted a 4.89 ERA and 5.03 FIP in 57 innings of work in the majors. While he showed promise in his final five starts with the big league club, posting a 2.73 ERA over that timeframe, his control left plenty to be desired over those appearances, with a 12% walk rate against a strikeout rate of just 17.5%. Despite those struggles, Hinch suggested that it was possible Faedo could return to the rotation for a start or two at some point before the end of the season.
More from the AL Central…
- White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. was scratched from yesterday’s lineup against Detroit due to cramping in his right quad. That same issue led Chicago to hold Robert out of the lineup today as well, with MLB.com indicating that Robert could return to game action as soon as tomorrow. That being said, the club plans to exercise caution regarding the health of their superstar outfielder. In a dismal season on the south side of Chicago, Robert has been a major bright spot, slashing .272/.324/.560 with 35 home runs and 17 stolen bases alongside elite defense in center field. Oscar Colas has taken over for Robert in center field while he’s been out of the lineup.
- The Twins are expected to recall right-hander Louie Varland tomorrow, according to the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller. Miller adds that Varland is expecting to join Minnesota as a member of the bullpen, a role which is fairly unfamiliar for the 25-year-old hurler. Out of 78 professional games Varland has played since being drafted in 2019, he has started all but six of them, including all 15 of his appearances in the majors, where he sports a career 4.83 ERA and 5.12 FIP after allowing 17 runs in 15 innings across his three most recent big league starts back in June. Varland is expected to take the roster spot of right-hander Cole Sands, who Miller indicates was optioned after tonight’s game against the Rangers.
- Guardians ace Shane Bieber is making progress in his rehab from right elbow inflammation, as MLB.com relays that the right-hander has advanced to throwing all of his pitches during bullpen sessions. As Terry Francona told reporters, if Bieber’s next bullpen goes well, he’ll progress to facing live hitters. The next logical progression after that would be a rehab assignment as Bieber builds back up to a starter’s workload. Bieber will first be eligible to be activated from the 60-day injured list on September 10, but it seems all but assured that Bieber will need longer than the minimum 60 days before returning at this point. That said, the 28-year-old seems to be on pace to return before the end of the season barring any setbacks. Prior to his injury, 2023 was shaping up to be a down season for Bieber, who posted a 3.77 ERA and 4.11 FIP across 19 starts.
MLBTR Poll: The Crowded NL Wild Card Race
Despite Fangraphs’ Playoff Odds giving Atlanta (100%), Los Angeles (100%), Milwaukee (98.7%), Philadelphia (96.3%), and Chicago (78%) better than 75% odds of making the playoffs, play in the National League closed this evening with the NL Wild Card race looking as tight as ever thanks to the third and final spot.
Four teams sport winning percentages of .511, putting all of them in an effective tie for the third Wild Card spot behind the Phillies and Cubs. With less than a month to go in the schedule, it’s increasingly likely that only one of Arizona, Cincinnati, Miami, and San Francisco will join the aforementioned five clubs in the postseason this year. Let’s take a look at each of those four clubs, as things stand for them headed into the stretch run:
San Francisco Giants, 70-67 (48.9% playoff odds)
The Giants established themselves as contenders back in June with a fantastic 18-8 record that month and have managed to stay within spitting distance of a playoff spot ever since. Unfortunately for San Francisco, that excellent June is the last month the club posted a winning record. The club has gone just 24-31 since the beginning of July, with their playoff odds dropping from 69.2% down to 47.8% during that stretch. Injuries to key players like Michael Conforto and Anthony DeSclafani have left the club playing at less than full strength, but a bigger problem for the club is the rapidly declining offense: since July 1, the club’s 77 wRC+ is the second worst figure in the majors ahead of only the Rockies.
On the other hand, the club sports a strong if unconventional pitching staff highlighted by ace Logan Webb, veteran Alex Cobb, rookie Kyle Harrison, and closer Camilo Doval that is further bolstered by the excellent defense provided by rookie catcher Patrick Bailey. With that solid run prevention group, it’s easy to see how the Giants could make the playoffs if key offensive contributors like Joc Pederson, Lamonte Wade Jr. and Thairo Estrada can return to the success they showed earlier in the season. Outside of seven games against the Dodgers, San Francisco’s remaining schedule is fairly soft, which should help them in their pursuit of the final NL playoff spot.
Arizona Diamondbacks, 70-67 (33.3% playoff odds)
A surprise early season contender, the Diamondbacks dominated the NL West throughout the first half, holding sole possession of first place in their division as late into the season as July 8 thanks to a strong offensive core of Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Christian Walker along with a strong pair of starters at the top of their rotation in righties Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Unfortunately for Arizona, their hold on the division lead would vanish over the next month as the club posted a 5-21 record over their next 26 games that was nothing short of disastrous. Despite the trade deadline coming directly in the middle of that awful stretch, Arizona’s front office added outfielder Tommy Pham and closer Paul Sewald to the floundering club, and the team has responded by going 13-7 since their skid came to an end.
With all of the club’s key players healthy headed into the stretch run, the Diamondbacks are perhaps the biggest question mark in this race. Was their brutal month of play, where they looked like one of the worst teams in baseball, simply a fluke? Or was it the beginning of the end for an underdog team projected for a 78-84 record when the season began? With 12 of their final 25 games coming against teams with a record of .500 or better, Arizona won’t have a particularly easy schedule to make use of as they try to secure their first playoff berth since 2017.
Miami Marlins, 70-67 (26.5% playoff odds)
The Marlins’ 2023 campaign has been a strange one. Earlier in the year, the club was carried by the bats of Luis Arraez and Jorge Soler and a historic record in one-run games. Much like the last two teams discussed, the months of July and August were difficult for Miami, as the club posted a record of just 19-32 while Soler (.697 OPS in July) and Arraez (.580 OPS in August) slumped badly. Fortunately, the club received offensive reinforcements at the trade deadline in the form of Jake Burger and Josh Bell, both of whom have posted strong results since joining the Marlins. What’s more, Alcantara has looked more like himself of late, with a 3.04 ERA in his last 77 innings of work.
While Soler hasn’t played in recent days due to injury, the offense is in a good place thanks to the contributions of Burger and Bell, while the rotation led by Alcantara, Eury Perez, Jesus Luzardo, and Edward Cabrera has been characteristically excellent. Perhaps Miami’s biggest obstacle in returning to the postseason for the first time since 2020 is the schedule: of the club’s final 25 games, the Marlins will face the Brewers, Dodgers, Braves and Phillies in sixteen of them.
Cincinnati Reds, 71-68 (16% playoff odds)
The Reds are perhaps the most surprising team of this quartet. The club’s success this season has been fueled almost entirely by a youth movement that began early in the season. While shortstop Elly De La Cruz hasn’t quite been the offensive force he was expected to be in his rookie season, infielder Matt McLain and starter Andrew Abbott have been nothing short of sensational. What’s more, other youngsters like Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Brandon Williamson have contributed in significant ways, to say nothing of contributions from more established players like TJ Friedl, Hunter Greene, Joey Votto, and Alexis Diaz.
While the Reds slumped badly to a 10-17 record in August, only six of the club’s final 23 games are against clubs with a record better than .500, given them plenty of opportunity to go on a run. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, between a rash of injuries and an outbreak of COVID-19, the Reds have a whopping 16 players on the injured list, including key players like Greene, McLain, Williamson, and Votto. With a pair of the club’s biggest bats and most reliable rotation arms out of commission for the foreseeable future, the Reds’ outlook is far hazier than it otherwise may have been.
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How does the readership of MLBTR think the race for the final NL Wild Card will shake out over the next month? Will one of the NL West clubs hold on to claim the spot that for much of the season they looked to be a shoo-in for? Will the Marlins overcome their brutal September schedule to emerge victorious? Or can the Reds navigate a wave of injuries to squeak into the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2013?
(poll link for app users)
Which Team Will Make The Playoffs?
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San Francisco Giants 30% (1,027)
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Arizona Diamondbacks 25% (849)
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Cincinnati Reds 23% (774)
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Miami Marlins 13% (430)
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More than one; one of the other five will miss the playoffs. 10% (331)
Total votes: 3,411
New York Notes: Marte, Mets, Hamilton, Rizzo
Mets outfielder Starling Marte hasn’t appeared in the majors in nearly a month due to a right groin strain, and MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo notes that the veteran has received two cortisone injections and spent the past week working with a lower leg specialist in Philadelphia in hopes of returning to the field this season. Per DiComo, Marte’s discussion with reporters proved to come with news that’s both encouraging and ominous: while Marte is optimistic that he’ll be able to play for the Mets again in 2023, it’s possible Marte will have to undergo a groin surgery identical to the one he underwent back in November this offseason.
Marte made the second All Star appearance of his career with the Mets in 2022, slashing a strong .292/.347/.468 with a 134 wRC+ in 505 trips to the plate with the club last year. The now 34-year-old veteran struggled badly this season prior to heading to the injured list, however, slashing just .248/.301/.324 in 341 trips to the plate. That performance is good for a wRC+ of just 76 this year, 24% worse than league average. With two years and over $40MM left on Marte’s contract, the possibility of another season hampered by the same offseason surgery that hindered him this season is sure to be worrisome for Mets fans. The club is currently relying on DJ Stewart and Jeff McNeil in the outfield corners alongside Brandon Nimmo in center.
More from New York’s teams…
- Sticking with the Mets, GM Billy Eppler spoke to Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio this afternoon. During the conversation, Eppler indicated to the duo that the Mets would be active in the starting pitching market this offseason. That should hardly come as a surprise, given the club shipped out Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the trade deadline earlier this season, leaving the club with few surefire starting options outside of Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana headed into next year. Youngsters David Peterson and Tylor Megill are currently in the rotation for the club, but both sport ERAs over 5.00 this season. Fortunately for the Mets, the upcoming free agent pitching class is deep with quality options, including the likes of Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
- The Yankees lost right-hander Ian Hamilton to the injured list earlier today thanks to a right groin strain, with fellow righty Greg Weissert replacing him on the active roster. Manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) that Hamilton’s injury is the same one that caused him to miss roughly six weeks earlier this summer. Per Hoch, the club is holding out hope that Hamilton will be able to return this year, but Boone acknowledged it’s possible he’s done for the season. Hamilton joined the club on a minor league deal back in February and has proven to be a stalwart member of the club’s bullpen this year, with a 2.24 ERA and 2.74 FIP in 52 1/3 innings of work.
- Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who has been out since last month due to post-concussion syndrome, is going through baseball activities in New York, as Boone told reporters (including Hoch) this evening. While Rizzo has not suffered a setback as he looks to return to the field, Boone indicated that the club intends to sit down with their veteran first baseman in order to discuss Rizzo’s progress in rehabbing the injury. With less than a month left in the regular season and Rizzo seemingly not close to beginning a rehab assignment, it seems unlikely that the 33-year-old will return this season, though Boone said as recently as August 23 a return before the end of the year was “realistic,” per MLB.com.
AL East Notes: Means, Bautista, Verdugo, Bradley
The Orioles have had a wildly successful 2023 campaign, with an 84-51 record that places them 2.5 games ahead of the Rays in a highly competitive AL East division. Despite that success, the club’s clear Achilles heel throughout the season has been the starting rotation, which has produced just 8.3 fWAR this year, 19th in the majors and only better than San Francisco among clubs currently in playoff position. While the club added right-hander Jack Flaherty at the trade deadline to bolster their staff, he’s struggled to a 6.41 ERA in 19 2/3 innings of work with Baltimore.
Given this, it should be a major relief to Orioles fans that left-hander John Means may be nearing a return to the big league club. MLB.com’s Jake Rill relays that manager Brandon Hyde indicated to reporters that Means will make another rehab start with Triple-A Norfolk but could be available to join the club’s big league rotation following that. Means, of course, hasn’t pitched since April 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery but sports a 3.72 ERA and 4.59 FIP in 353 1/3 innings of work since the start of his rookie campaign back in 2019. If the 30-year-old lefty can recapture his steady, mid-rotation performance from prior to his surgery in time for the postseason, he’ll surely be an asset to a rotation that figures to include right-handers Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, and Kyle Gibson.
More from around the AL East…
- Sticking with the Orioles, closer Felix Bautista hit the injured list with “some degree of injury” to his UCL last week, though since then specifics regarding his situation have been sparse. Hyde provided an update regarding Bautista to reporters this afternoon, with Rill relaying that the club is waiting for inflammation in Bautista’s elbow to go down before deciding on next steps. While Bautista already underwent an MRI, Rill notes that more tests could be in the 28-year-old’s future as the club tries to determine the best course of action for their breakout relief ace.
- Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo exited today’s game against the Royals due to what the club termed as hamstring tightness. Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe caught up with Verdugo following the game and the 27-year-old downplayed the severity of the issue, suggesting that he “felt a little something” in his hamstring during the sixth inning and that it should be taken care of with a day or two of rest. Should Verdugo miss more time than that, the club has Wilyer Abreu, Cedanne Rafaela, and Rob Refsnyder as options to fill out the outfield alongside Adam Duvall and Masataka Yoshida.
- The Rays recalled rookie starter Taj Bradley today, with the 22-year-old hurler taking the place of the recently-injured Jason Adam on the active roster. Bradley’s first sixteen starts with Tampa were something of a mixed bag; while the youngster dazzled with a 30% strikeout rate against a 7.9% walk rate, his 5.67 ERA in 74 2/3 innings left a great deal to be desired in terms of both results and volume. Of course, it’s worth pointing out that Bradley’s BABIP allowed was the sixth-highest figure in the majors among pitchers with at least 70 innings of work this year, while his strand rate was tenth lowest. That combination indicates some degree of bad luck in Bradley’s results, though a whopping 17.3% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs serves as an indicator that not all of his struggles have been pure misfortune. Bradley will look to end his rookie campaign on a high note as a member of the rotation alongside Tyler Glasnow, Aaron Civale, Zach Eflin, and Zack Littell.
NL Central Notes: Stroman, Cubs, McLain, India, Matz
The Cubs have been without right-hander Marcus Stroman for just over a month now thanks to inflammation in the 32-year-old hurler’s right hip and a subsequently-diagnosed rib cartilage fracture. Upon the reveal of Stroman’s rib injury two weeks ago, whether or not he would be able to return this season came into question as he was set to be shut down for several weeks without a clear timeline for recovery. Fortunately for fans on the north side, Stroman’s timetable seems to be coming into focus with a return this season clearly still on the table.
Manager David Ross told reporters (including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun Times) ahead of today’s game against the Reds that Stroman will throw a bullpen session in Arizona. That still leaves a long way for Stroman to go before he can return to a major league mound; assuming tomorrow’s bullpen goes well, he’ll need to progress to facing live hitters and then likely require at least a rehab start or two in the minor leagues before he can return to the starting rotation for the Cubs. Still, even a brief cameo from Stroman before the regular season comes to a close could be a huge boon to Chicago.
Stroman sports a 3.85 ERA and 3.58 FIP across 23 starts this year, but it’s really been a tale of two seasons for the veteran hurler: while he posted a sterling 2.28 ERA and 3.33 FIP in his first sixteen starts, his final seven starts before hitting the injured list saw him post an ugly 9.00 ERA, albeit with a less outlandish 4.39 FIP. It’s hard to say how much of that downturn in performance was related to Stroman’s current injuries, but a healthy and effective return for the right-hander would not only help the Cubs as they look to make the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2018, but also give them another quality option to start in the playoffs alongside lefty ace Justin Steele and veteran hurler Kyle Hendricks, should they succeed in reaching the postseason.
More from around the NL Central:
- Sticking with the Cubs, Lee also relayed updates from Ross regarding a trio of potential bullpen options for Chicago down the stretch. Left-hander Brandon Hughes and righties Nick Burdi and Ben Brown are expected to pitch today with Triple-A Iowa. Hughes was a breakout reliever for the Cubs last year with a 3.12 ERA in 57 2/3 innings of work with the club last year, but struggled through 13 2/3 injury-plagued innings earlier this season before undergoing knee surgery back in June. Hughes’s return to the bullpen would surely provide a boost for Chicago as swing option Drew Smyly is the only southpaw in the club’s bullpen at the moment. Brown has not yet pitched in the majors but is one of the club’s top prospects who had long been rumored as a potential late-season bullpen option prior to an injury that kept him out of action for the entire month of August. Burdi managed just three innings with the Cubs earlier this season in his first major league work since 2020 before going on the injured list with appendicitis and ulnar nerve irritation.
- It seems the Reds will be without rookie infielder Matt McLain for a while yet, as the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Charlie Goldsmith relayed an update from manager David Bell indicating that McLain would be out with an oblique injury for two to three more weeks. Such a timeline would likely leave him out of action for most of the remaining regular season. That’s a major blow to the Reds, who have relied on McLain’s strong bat (129 wRC+) and quality glovework around the infield and sit alongside the Marlins, Diamondbacks, and Giants in the thick of the race for the final NL Wild Card spot. Fortunately, the Reds could still receive some reinforcements for their infield in the near future as second baseman Jonathan India is on track to begin a rehab assignment this week after missing the past month with plantar fasciitis.
- Cardinals manager Oli Marmol indicated to reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat) that left-hander Steven Matz‘s season could be in jeopardy as the veteran is still “week-to-week” in his rehab from a lat strain sustained last month. Marmol noted that there is “probably not” enough time for him to return in 2023. Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch adds that a return from Matz would likely be limited in terms of length, as Matz won’t have time to get stretched out as a starter before the season comes to a close. Matz has had an up-and-down season with the Cardinals this year but will end the season with solid overall numbers if he’s ultimately unable to return. In 25 appearances (17 starts), Matz posted a 3.86 ERA, 11% better than league average by measure of ERA+, with a 3.76 FIP in 105 innings of work.
The Padres’ Underrated Team MVP
Not much has gone right for the Padres in 2023. They entered this year as the pre-season favorites for the NL West title, looking as though they were ready to finally assert themselves as the big dog in the National League and dethrone the Dodgers, who have resided comfortable at the front of the pack for most of the past decade. They signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year contract before extending Yu Darvish, Jake Cronenworth, and Manny Machado on big money deals of their own, signalling they were all-in with the team that had traded for Juan Soto and Josh Hader at 2022’s trade deadline. With Fernando Tatis Jr.‘s return to the baseball diamond on the horizon, the future looked bright in San Diego.
Needless to say, things have not gone as planned this season. With a 63-73 record, the Padres are ten games under .500 and in fourth place in the NL West, behind not only the division-leading Dodgers but also both the Giants and Diamondbacks. LA has a stranglehold on the division title at this point, but both San Francisco and Arizona have solid odds at a Wild Card, per Fangraphs: 58.5% and 43.6%, respectively. The Padres, meanwhile, are all but eliminated from postseason contention this year with just a 0.6% chance at a Wild Card berth.
With the notable exceptions of Soto and Hader, the club’s expected stars have faltered this year: Darvish, Bogaerts, Cronenworth and Machado have all had down years to varying degrees after signing those big money deals in the offseason, while Tatis hasn’t looked like the superstar he once seemed to be and right-hander Joe Musgrove has spent much of the season on the injured list. With the exception of lefty Blake Snell, the club’s success stories have largely come by way of their more unheralded players: Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have both looked like absolute heists after being plucked from free agency to fill out the rotation, while a catching tandem of post-hype youngster Luis Campusano and minor league addition Gary Sanchez has been quite impressive.
Given that, perhaps it’s no surprise that the team’s MVP isn’t one of their many nine-figure contracts, their shutdown closer, or even Soto and his perennial .400 OBP. Instead, it’s infielder Ha-Seong Kim, who has followed up a major step forward in 2022 with yet another step forward this year to become one of the best infielders in the sport.
Kim first broke into the majors with the Padres back in 2021, after signing a four-year, $28MM deal with the Padres to come over to MLB from the KBO. Kim had been an elite player during his time in Korea, slashing .294/.373/.493 across 7 seasons with the Kiwoom Heroes. He posted a particularly strong platform season before heading overseas, with a .306/.397/.524 slash line in his final season with the Heroes. Unfortunately, he didn’t come particularly close to living up to that promise during his age-25 campaign, his first as a big leaguer. While he played strong defense at second and third base in addition to his home position of shortstop, he posted a meager 72 wRC+, hitting just .202/.270/.352 with a 23.8% strikeout rate, a massive jump from the 10.9% figure he posted in his final year in Korea.
While Kim played in 117 games with San Diego in 2021, he was largely a part-time player, accumulating just 298 plate appearances. Things changed for the youngster in 2022, however. Between the injuries and PED suspension that plagued Tatis, the club’s regular shortstop at the time, Kim was given a full season’s runway at shortstop, and he made the most of it. His offense improved from nearly 30% below league average to slightly above in 2022 as he slashed .251/.325/.383 with a wRC+ of 106. That offensive performance combined with his stellar defense at shortstop and a reduced 17.2% strikeout rate allowed Kim to finish the season with 3.8 fWAR, 11th in the majors among shortstops and not far off from the likes of Nico Hoerner and Carlos Correa.
Kim’s major step forward in 2022 was not enough to guarantee him the everyday shortstop role headed into 2023, however. While Tatis was moved to the outfield during his absence, the club signed Bogaerts to play shortstop, leaving Kim to slide over to second base as Cronenworth moved to cover first following the departure of Josh Bell. While he has spent time elsewhere in the infield while covering for Machado and Bogaerts, over two thirds of Kim’s innings have come at the keystone, where he’s flourished defensively. Kim sports +7 Outs Above Average this season, on par with the likes of Ryan McMahon and Andres Gimenez. Meanwhile, he ranks tied for seventh in the majors with Gimenez on the DRS leaderboard with a sensational +16 figure.
Perhaps even more impressive than Kim’s glovework is the leap forward he’s made on offense. While he made himself a slightly above-average offensive contributor in 2022, he’s made himself an All-Star caliber bat in 2023 with a .277/.367/.434 slash line in 527 trips to the plate this season. While his 18.6% strikeout rate in 2023 is slightly higher than last year’s figure, he’s more than compensated by taking more walks, allowing his 8.8% figure from last season to shoot up to 12.1%, top 20 in the majors. Of the nineteen players with higher walk rates, only Mookie Betts, Alex Bregman, and Adley Rutschman strike out less than Kim, putting him in elite territory when it comes to plate discipline. On top of this improved discipline, Kim has turned himself into a major asset on the basepaths this year, swiping 29 bases in 37 attempts.
Between his defensive prowess and greatly improved offense, Kim has made himself not only the Padres’ team MVP, but one of the most valuable players in the National League. His 4.6 fWAR this season is sixth in the NL, sandwiched between Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll and two-time All Star Matt Olson. When looking at Baseball Reference WAR, Kim is only eclipsed by Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Ronald Acuna Jr. among NL players.
While Kim’s standout season hasn’t saved the Padres this year, the 27-year-old could still provide impact for a future playoff chase given that he’s under contract for just $8MM next season. With his contract ending in a mutual option worth $8MM for 2025, Kim seems likely to join Soto in departing for free agency following the 2024 campaign barring an extension. Whether the Padres decide to retool for the future and field offers on their pair of star free-agents-to-be or go all-in for the 2024 season while the duo are still under contract, Kim is a clear player to watch even as the majority of eyes will be focused on Soto’s potential final season in San Diego and impending free agency following the 2024 season.
AL East Notes: Adam, Blue Jays, Wells
Per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, Rays right-hander Jason Adam was unavailable during tonight’s 7-6 loss to the Guardians due to an oblique strain that will send him to the injured list. Adam hasn’t pitched since August 27 due to the issue. It’s another devastating injury for Tampa’s pitching staff, which has already lost three of its five opening day rotation members for the season in Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan. Now, the bullpen has lost perhaps its most reliable setup arm for right-hander Pete Fairbanks.
After a sensational 2022 campaign with the Rays where Adam posted a 1.56 ERA in 67 appearances, the 31-year-old righty has taken a step back but is still dominant with a 2.67 ERA in 54 innings this season, 56% better than league average by measure of ERA+. With Adam headed to the IL, it’s fair to wonder if his regular season is in jeopardy, though without confirmation from Rays brass its hard to speculate on a timetable for return given the considerable variance in severity regarding oblique injuries. With Adam headed to the shelf, the Rays figure to rely on Fairbanks, Colin Poche, and Robert Stephenson to cover the late innings, with veteran Andrew Kitteredge as a potential X-factor for the bullpen as he returns from last year’s Tommy John surgery.
More from around the AL East…
- The Blue Jays had interested in then-Mets outfielder Mark Canha prior to the trade deadline, when he was ultimately traded to the Brewers. Per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet, the club considered dealing for an additional bat like Canha or fellow Met Tommy Pham (who was eventually traded to Arizona) before ultimately opting to rely on prospect Davis Schneider to boost the offense down the stretch. While the decision to lean on Schneider looks prescient as the 24-year-old has set the world on fire with a 270 wRC+ in his first 15 games, a bat like Canha or Pham would surely help cover for the loss of Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman to the injured list earlier this week. Nicholson-Smith also notes that the club rebuffed interest from a free agent middle infielder toward the end of August in deference to Ernie Clement, who like Schneider has also delivered in a small sample size since taking over for Bichette at shortstop.
- Orioles right-hander Tyler Wells is struggling with arm fatigue as he converts to a bullpen role with Triple-A Norfolk, as manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Jake Rill of MLB.com) today. As Rill notes, Wells last pitched on August 25, with Hyde noting that the righty hasn’t “bounced back” from his last outing as hoped. Wells posted a 3.18 ERA in 104 2/3 innings of work prior to the All Star break but was rocked for 11 runs in nine innings of work in three appearances after the break, prompting the club to demote the 29-year-old hurler for a conversion to the bullpen.
MLB Will Not Alter Pitch Clock Rules For Postseason, Tweaks Triple-A Rules
MLB’s rule change initiatives headed into 2023 have largely had their intended effects, improving the run scoring environment while cutting down on game times. That being said, those changes haven’t stopped players from hoping that the rules surrounding the pitch clock, which limits pitchers to 15 seconds between pitches with the bases empty and 20 seconds with runners on, would be relaxed somewhat during the postseason given the heightened importance given to each play during a win-or-go-home series.
It seems as though those players will be disappointed, however, as Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci reports that MLB has decided not to adjust the pitch clock during the postseason this year. Per Verducci, the league informed the Competition Committee yesterday that they would not propose any amendments to the rules for postseason play this year. It’s easy to see why the league would be satisfied with the changes and not look to mix things up, given the average game time has dropped from 3:03 in 2022 to just 2:39 this year. While Verducci notes that game times have crept up throughout the year as hitters have increasingly made use of their timeout during plate appearances, August’s average game time of 2:41 is still more than twenty minutes shorter than last year’s average.
While there won’t be changes to the pitch clock this postseason, that doesn’t mean the league isn’t contemplating changes at all. Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper recently noted that, starting on September 5, the pitch clock at the Triple-A level will be tweaked significantly. Rather than the previous 14 seconds with the bases empty and 19 seconds with runners on at the level (one second fewer than in the majors in both situations), Triple-A games down the stretch will instead operate with a single, 17-second clock for all situations. Cooper notes that the change is made possible thanks to the level’s widespread use of PitchCom, which allows pitchers and catchers to communicate without the use of signs.
Other, smaller changes at Triple-A are planned as well with an eye toward preventing pitchers and catchers from gaming the pitch clock, such as lowering the number of mound visits. While the changes at the Triple-A level are by no means guaranteed to reach the majors, it’s nonetheless worth noting that the league is still experiment with the specifics of the pitch clock in hopes of further optimizing the rule.
In addition to the incoming pace-of-play related changes, the Triple-A level is also poised to see a change to its ABS system for automating the strike zone. While previously, ABS has used percentages of a hitter’s height to determine the top and bottom limits of the strike zone, that has created issues due to varying body types between players that a human strike zone would normally account for. As such, Cooper relays that going forward the ABS system will be altered to use visual tracking when setting the strike zone to create a custom strike zone for each individual player. While the new strike zone is expected to more closely mimic a human strike zone, the top of the zone will still be lower than the major league strike zone, an intentional feature implemented in hopes of lowering the number of strikeouts on fastballs at the top of the zone.
The change toward an individualized strike zone more akin to the ones created by human umpires seems to be a step in the right direction as people from all sides of the game look toward the possibility of an automated strike zone of some variety reaching the major leagues in the coming years. An automated strike zone wouldn’t necessarily remove the entire human element of calling the strike zone; while half of all Triple-A games are called with a fully automated strike zone, the other half utilize human umpires while offering both pitchers and hitters a challenge system that utilizes the automated strike zone to determine the outcome of the challenge.
West Notes: Scherzer, Trout, Nola, Martinez
Rangers ace Max Scherzer exited his start against the Twins after six innings yesterday due to what he described to reporters (including Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today) as a “little forearm tightness” and wasn’t sure he’d be able to pitch the seventh. That being said, Scherzer downplayed the severity of the issue, suggesting that his priority is to ensure that the issue doesn’t “turn into a forearm strain or Tommy John.”
Even though Scherzer downplays the issue, it’s surely worrisome for Rangers fans that he’s facing any issue at all. The veteran right-hander has posted a phenomenal 2.21 ERA (198 ERA+) and 2.48 FIP in his first six starts with the club since being acquired from the Mets ahead of the trade deadline back in July. With Jacob deGrom out for the year and Nathan Eovaldi on the injured list already, Scherzer will be key for a Rangers club looking to stay in a three-way race for the AL West crown that they were dominating earlier in the season, to say nothing of his importance as a key cog in their projected postseason rotation alongside fellow deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery. In the event Scherzer misses a start or two while erring on the side of caution regarding his forearm, Texas could turn to right-hander Owen White or lefties Cody Bradford and Martin Perez to fill in for the future Hall of Famer when his turn in the rotation next comes up on Wednesday.
More from MLB’s West divisions…
- Superstar Mike Trout spoke with reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) regarding the future of the Angels organization this afternoon. Anaheim, of course, waived a number of pending free agents including prized deadline addition Lucas Giolito earlier this week, effectively conceding the 2023 campaign in a failed bid to duck under the luxury tax threshold before the season ends. “There are going to be some conversations in the winter, for sure.” Trout said, “Just to see the direction of everything and what the plan is.” Trout refused to comment on the possibility of a trade when asked if he could imagine a scenario where he would ask to be moved, though with two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani likely departing for free agency this offseason and a protracted rebuild potentially on the horizon for the Angels, it would certainly be understandable if the 32-year-old Trout wished to continue his career elsewhere in hopes of reaching a World Series.
- Padres catcher Austin Nola has had a brutal year at the plate in 2023, slashing just .146/.260/.192 in 154 trips to the plate with San Diego. An explanation for those struggles has seemingly been uncovered, as Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune relays that Nola has been diagnosed with oculomotor dysfunction, an issue that impacts the brain’s ability to coordinate eye movement. Nola referenced Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo and his issues with post-concussion syndrome as a catalyst for his decision to discuss symptoms, which included fogginess and headaches, with the Padres. The Padres have been using a catching tandem of Gary Sanchez and Luis Campusano in recent weeks as Nola tried to work things out at the Triple-A level. Nola hopes to return to the field in the minors before the Triple-A season ends on September 24.
- Dodgers slugger J.D. Martinez is trending toward a return to the big league club next weekend, per the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett. Plunkett relays that Martinez will begin a brief rehab assignment at Triple-A later this week and in the meantime will take swings at Camelback Ranch in Arizona. Martinez, 35, has been on the injured list for the past two weeks due to groin tightness and was slashing .256/.309/.547 with 25 home runs and a 126 wRC+ in 390 trips to the plate before going on the shelf.