The Opener: Fried, Verlander, Woodruff
As the 2023 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Fried to return from IL:
The Braves have been perhaps the most impressive team in the majors this year, with a phenomenal 69-37 record that puts them 11.5 games up on the competition in the NL East. What’s more, they’ve done all of that without two of their most impactful starters from last season: left-hander Max Fried and right-hander Kyle Wright. That’s poised to change today, at least in the case of Fried, as the southpaw is set to return from the IL today to take the mound against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. As Fried is on the 60-day IL, the club will need to make a 40-man roster move to accommodate their lefty ace.
Since his breakout campaign in 2020, Fried has been one of the game’s best starters with a 2.64 ERA (165 ERA+) and 3.01 FIP in 74 starts. That includes a stellar 2022 campaign where Fried made the first All-Star appearance of his career and was the runner-up in NL Cy Young award voting after posting a sterling 2.48 ERA and an equally excellent 2.70 FIP. In five starts this season prior to going on the injured list, Fried appeared on track to continue his dominance from last season, as he posted a walk rate of just 5.8% against a solid 24.3% strikeout rate, leaving him with a 2.08 ERA and 3.04 FIP over 26 innings of work.
2. Verlander to make 2023 Astros debut:
Newly re-acquired Astros ace Justin Verlander is set to make his 2023 debut with the team against the Yankees in the Bronx on Saturday opposite Nestor Cortes, who will be making his first start since going on the injured list back in May. Verlander, now in his age-40 season, signed with the Mets after winning the World Series with the Astros last season but was made available at the trade deadline thanks to the Mets’ unexpected struggles this season. After weathering injuries to Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, and Lance McCullers Jr. for most of the 2023 campaign, Houston pounced on the opportunity to re-acquire their ace, sending a prospect package headlined by top prospect Drew Gilbert to Queens in exchange for Verlander’s services.
As Verlander prepares to make his first Astros start since he was the winning pitcher in Game 5 of the 2022 World Series, he’s in the midst of another strong season with a 3.15 ERA over 16 starts. That being said, Verlander’s performance has taken a step back from the dominance he displayed last season en route to the third Cy Young award of his career. In 2022, Verlander struck out 27.8% of the batters he faced, while this season that figure has dipped to just 21%. That being said, Verlander figures to help anchor the starting staff in Houston alongside left-hander Framber Valdez, giving the Astros a pair of aces as they attempt to catch the Rangers in the AL West.
3. Woodruff to return from IL:
The Brewers reclaimed the lead in the NL Central race yesterday as they took a half-game lead over the Reds following a 14-1 rout of the Pirates. As they try to protect that minuscule lead, they’ll receive reinforcements this weekend from ace right-hander Brandon Woodruff. He’ll be activated from the injured list on Sunday to make his first start since early April, when he first went on the shelf due to a subscapular strain in his right shoulder. Before he can take the field against the Pirates, the Brewers will need to make a 40-man roster move to accommodate the righty, who is currently on the 60-day IL.
Woodruff has been perhaps one of the most underrated starters in the game in recent years. Since joining the rotation full-time in 2019, Woodruff has posted an incredible 2.97 ERA (142 ERA+) with a nearly matching FIP of 3.04 across 94 starts with a strikeout rate just north of 30%. Prior to his aforementioned injury, Woodruff seemed to be gearing up for another dominant season with a microscopic 0.79 ERA across his two starts this season. With fellow ace Corbin Burnes also heating up in recent weeks (1.85 ERA in six July starts), Milwaukee’s rotation seems well-equipped as they work to fend off the Reds and Cubs over the next two months.
The Opener: McClanahan, Traded Starters, Keuchel
As MLB’s regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. McClanahan to visit team doctor:
Rays lefty Shane McClanahan exited his start after just four innings in yesterday’s 7-2 loss to the Yankees. As noted by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, McClanahan felt tightness in his forearm while warming up ahead of the fourth inning. While the southpaw managed to complete the fourth inning, Topkin adds that he’ll fly back to Tampa to have the issue examined by the team’s doctor. Missed time for McClanahan would be a devastating blow to the Rays, who have fallen to a game and a half behind the Orioles in the race for the AL East crown thanks primarily to a brutal 8-16 record in the month of July. In the event that McClanahan misses time, youngster Taj Bradley seems likely to return to the club’s rotation alongside Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin, and the newly-acquired Aaron Civale.
2. Traded starters making their club debuts:
A trio of starters are poised to make their debut with their new club today. Things will kick off at 11:10am CT, when right-hander Michael Lorenzen (3.58 ERA in 18 starts) will make his first start with the Phillies after the club acquired him from the Tigers on the day of the trade deadline. He’ll face the Marlins in Miami for his first start as a Phillie. Next on the docket will be veteran ace Max Scherzer‘s debut at Globe Life Field following his trade from the Mets to the Rangers, which begin at 1:05pm CT.
Scherzer’s struggled relative to his Hall of Fame-caliber standards this year with a 4.01 ERA in 19 starts, but will have the opportunity for a fresh start with a new club today against the White Sox. Wrapping up the trio of debuts will be right-hander Jack Flaherty, who was acquired by the Orioles in a deal with the Cardinals just before the trade deadline. Like Scherzer, Flaherty has also struggled somewhat in 2023, with a 4.43 ERA in 20 starts, but will look to make a strong impression on his new club at 2:07pm CT during a start against the division-rival Blue Jays in Toronto.
3. Keuchel decision:
Former AL Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel triggered an opt-out clause in his minor league deal with the Twins on Tuesday, giving Minnesota 48 hours to add him to its 40-man roster or else grant him his release. The 35-year-old lefty had a disastrous decline in 2021-22, pitching to a 6.35 ERA in 222 2/3 innings while playing out the final two seasons of a three-year, $55.5MM deal he originally signed with the White Sox. Keuchel signed with the Twins earlier this summer after spending months working out at Driveline Baseball, and the results in Triple-A have been genuinely intriguing: 32 innings of 1.13 ERA ball with a 21.2% strikeout rate, 9.1% walk rate and huge 61.5% ground-ball rate. The Twins will have to decide today whether to select Keuchel’s contract to the Major League roster or cut him loose. Given that trades are now no longer permitted, most clubs will be looking for ways to bolster their pitching depth. Based on his pre-2021 track record and small-sample intrigue in Triple-A this year, it’s easy to see Keuchel latching on elsewhere if the Twins choose not to make room for him on the active roster.
The Opener: Roster Moves, Kirilloff, Miley
With trade season officially in the past, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Post-Deadline Roster Moves:
While the trade deadline has come and gone, yesterday’s trades figure to continue impacting the rosters of clubs going forward. While clubs need to clear 40-man roster space for acquired players at the time of the deal, most active roster moves take longer to be completed. One such example regards the deal that sent third baseman Jeimer Candelario to the Cubs; while Chicago acquired Candelario on Monday, he wasn’t activated until the following day, when first baseman Trey Mancini was designated for assignment as a corresponding move. On the other end of the spectrum, sellers typically find themselves with plenty of 40-man roster spots available following trade season, allowing them to select additional players to the roster, as the Pirates and Mets did yesterday, or place waiver claims on the myriad players who found themselves designated for assignment in the past few days.
2. Kirilloff Undergoes MRI:
Twins first baseman Alex Kirilloff underwent an MRI on his shoulder yesterday, as noted by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes. Kirilloff, who went on the 10-day injured list over the weekend with a shoulder strain, has been a key cog in the Twins’ lineup this year when healthy, slashing .270/.357/.442 with a 124 wRC+ in 258 plate appearances. With Kirilloff on the shelf, first base reps figure to primarily go to Donovan Solano and Joey Gallo, the latter of whom will shift from the outfield to the infield to cover for Kirilloff. Those additional outfield at-bats figure to be split between Max Kepler, Willi Castro, and Matt Wallner in the outfield corners.
3. Miley to return:
Veteran southpaw Wade Miley has been on the shelf since early July due to discomfort in his elbow but is expected to be activated from the 15-day IL to take the ball in today’s game against the Nationals. During this second stint in Milwaukee throughout his 13-year big league career, Miley has pitched solidly with a 3.06 ERA and 4.38 FIP in 67 2/3 innings (13 starts). While a starter with an ERA+ 39% better than league average is a surefire upgrade to the rotation of any given club, Miley’s return is a particularly valuable development given Milwuakee just lost right-hander Julio Teheran (4.74 ERA in 11 starts) to the IL due to a hip impingement over the weekend.
Rays Acquire Alex Jackson
The Rays and Brewers agreed to terms on a minor swap earlier today that sent catcher Alex Jackson to Tampa Bay in exchange for right-hander Evan McKendry. The Rays have announced the swap.
Jackson, 27, was the sixth selection overall in the 2014 draft by the Mariners and made his big league debut with the Braves in 2019. Though he’s appeared in the majors every season since then, he’s never managed to stick on a big league roster or hit in the majors, with a career slash line of just .141/.243/.227 in 185 major league plate appearances. He’s hit better in the minor leagues, with a career slash line of .244/.327/.523 in 905 trips to the plate at the Triple-A level. Between those minor league results, his previous draft pedigree, and his relative youth, Jackson is an interesting depth addition for a Rays club that needed additional catching depth after Francisco Mejia went on the injured list with a sprained knee two weeks ago.
To acquire Jackson, they’ll part with McKendry, a 25-year-old pitching prospect the club selected in the ninth round of the 2019 draft. With a career 4.00 ERA in 110 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level and a 23.6% strikeout rate during that time, McKendry figures to provide the Brewers with upper-level pitching depth going forward, a particularly valuable commodity given right-hander Julio Teheran‘s recent placement on the injured list. While the Rays have dealt with plenty of pitching injuries of their own, McKendry’s loss is made up for by today’s acquisition of right-hander Adrian Sampson, to say nothing of yesterday’s blockbuster that brought back Aaron Civale.
Red Sox Designate Jorge Alfaro For Assignment
The Red Sox have designated catcher Jorge Alfaro for assignment, according to MassLive’s Chris Cotillo. The move makes room for catcher Reese McGuire on the active roster after he was activated from the 10-day injured list this evening.
Alfaro, 30, joined the Red Sox in early July on a major-league deal after previously signing a minor league pact with the club this past offseason. Alfaro opted out of that minors deal and tested the open market, where he landed with the Rockies for a ten-game stint. He was then DFA’d and returned to the Red Sox organization for an eight-game stint.
Once a key piece in the deal that sent J.T. Realmuto to Philadelphia, Alfaro is now enduring his fourth consecutive season of significant struggles. Since the start of the shortened 2020 campaign, Alfaro has slashed just .236/.278/.354 in 737 plate appearances, good for a wRC+ of just 75. While that would be a manageable figure for a quality defensive catcher, Alfaro is generally regarded as a well below-average receiver behind the plate.
Now DFA’d for the second time this summer, Alfaro figures to test the open market for the fourth time in the past calendar year unless he is claimed on waivers. With the trade deadline in the rear-view, Alfaro could be an attractive depth option at catcher given his previous prospect pedigree, years of major league experience, and presumably risk-free acquisition cost of a minor league deal. As for the Red Sox, they’ll return to their typical catching tandem of Connor Wong and McGuire going forward, with Ronaldo Hernandez, Stephen Scott, and Caleb Hamilton available as depth options at the Triple-A level.
Angels Acquire Dominic Leone
The Angels have acquired right-hander Dominic Leone from the Mets, per Will Sammon of The Athletic. Mike Puma of the New York Post first reported that the Mets were engaged in discussions on a Leone deal. According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Mets received infield prospect Jeremiah Jackson in return.
Leone, 31, first broke into the big leagues with the Mariners back in 2014 with an impressive 2.17 ERA (168 ERA+) and 3.07 FIP in 66 1/3 innings of work. Since then, he’s bounced around the league, playing for Arizona, Toronto, Cleveland, St. Louis, and San Francisco in addition to Seattle and New York. The Angels will be the eighth team of his ten-year career in the majors. The veteran hurler sports a career 3.75 ERA and 4.01 FIP in 386 1/3 innings of work.
He’ll join the Angels following a rather difficult stint in New York. While he’s posted a 4.40 ERA that’s roughly league average by measure of ERA+ in 31 appearances, his 5.26 FIP is more concerning. While Leone’s 26% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate rate among the best marks of his career, he’s seen his groundball rate plummet to just 35.4%, far lower than his career 42.5% rate. While that isn’t entirely a problem by itself, Leone has also allowed a whopping 13.4% barrel rate this season, resulting in 18.4% of his fly balls leaving the year for home runs.
While Leone’s tendency to allow the long ball has severely limited his effectiveness this season, he should nonetheless be a useful arm for an Angels bullpen that ranks bottom four in the majors with just 1.3 fWAR as a collective unit. While Carlos Estevez and Matt Moore form a quality duo with which the club can close out games, Leone can help the likes of Aaron Loup and fellow deadline acquisition Reynaldo Lopez cover the middle innings for the Angels.
As for the Mets, they’ll receive a quality prospect in return for a veteran rental arm in the midst of a difficult season. Headed to Queens in exchange for Leone is Jackson, the Angels’ #9 prospect per MLB Pipeline. The 23-year-old infielder has shortstop, second base, third base, center field, and left field during his minor league career and has swiped 56 bags in 73 professional attempts. His been a league average hitter with Double-A Rocket City this year, slashing .248/.321/.447 in 349 plate appearances.
Mariners Designate Kolten Wong For Assignment, Red Sox Interested
The Mariners have designated second baseman Kolten Wong for assignment, per MassLive’s Chris Cotillo. Wong’s stay in DFA limbo could be a short one, as the Red Sox have interest in a trade for the veteran infielder.
Wong, 32, came over to Seattle in the swap that sent Jesse Winker and Abraham Toro to Milwuakee this past offseason. The Mariners acquired him hoping he could solidify second base for them, but things didn’t go according to plan as Wong posted by far the worst season of his career in 2023. In 216 trips to the plate this season, Wong has batted a brutal .165/.241/.227 that checks in 64% worse than league average by measure of wRC+. That unplayable offense has been paired with below average defense at the keystone, combining to create a package worth -1.0 fWAR in 67 games with Seattle this season.
Prior to this disastrous season in Seattle, Wong had spent the past nine season as a quality, major league regular at second base. After being drafted 22nd overall by the Cardinals in the 2011 draft, Wong made his MLB debut in a 32-game stint with St. Louis during the 2013 season. He became a fixture at second base in 2014 and would remain there for seven seasons, slashing .263/.336/.389 (98 wRC+) over that time while winning the NL Gold Glove at second base in both 2019 and 2020.
Following the 2020 campaign, Wong tested free agency for the first time in his career and landed with the Brewers on a two-year deal. His defense took a step back during his time in Milwaukee, as he rated as roughly average in 2021 and landed in just the third percentile among qualified fielders by measure of Outs Above Average last year. That slip in terms of defensive value was made up for by improved performance at the plate, as Wong slashed .262/.337/.439 with a wRC+ of 113 in 989 plate appearances during his two seasons with Milwaukee.
While Wong has struggled badly in Seattle, that extensive track record as an above-average regular has evidently caught the attention of the Red Sox, who have struggled to get production out of their middle infield with shortstop Trevor Story having missed the entire season to this point. They’ve relied on a variety of options up the middle this season, including Enrique Hernandez, Yu Chang, Christian Arroyo, Pablo Reyes, and Enmanuel Valdez. As for the Mariners, Dylan Moore, Jose Caballero, and the newly-acquired Josh Rojas are among the club’s options at the keystone going forward.
Brendan Donovan To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery
Cardinals infielder/outfielder Brendan Donovan is set to undergo season-ending surgery tomorrow, per Katie Woo of The Athletic. Donovan has been dealing with a flexor tendon injury in his throwing arm recently, which had prevented him from throwing and relegated him to DH duties. Per Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat, Donovan should be ready to return from the surgery to correct that flexor strain before Spring Training 2024.
Donovan, 26, immediately made an impression upon making his big league debut with the Cardinals last season. He slashed a strong .281/.394/.379 in 126 games for the club, goo for a wRC+ of 129, while playing quality defense at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. That quality defense and versatility earned him a Gold Glove award last year, and those skills along with his knack for getting on base allowed him to finish third in NL Rookie of the Year award voting.
The 26-year-old utility ace took a slight step back at the plate in his sophomore season as he discipline for additional power. His walk rate dipped from a sterling 12.8% to a more pedestrian 8.9% this season, though his ISO ticked up from just .097 last year up to a more respectable .138 during the current campaign. That increase in power combined with his trademark versatility has allowed him to remain an above-average regular this year, with 2.1 fWAR in 371 trips to the plate.
Unfortunately, Donovan’s 2023 campaign has come to a premature end thanks to the aforementioned flexor strain, an ailment that prevented him from taking the field for nearly the entire month of July. The loss of Donovan for the season further damages the competitiveness of a Cardinals club that has already shipped out Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, Chris Stratton, and Paul DeJong out this trade season, with more deals expected before the deadline.
As things stand, the club figures to utilize Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Gorman, Tommy Edman, and Nolan Arenado in the infield with Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Lars Nootbaar, Tyler O’Neill, and Dylan Carlson all in the outfield/DH mix, though further trades ahead of the deadline could change that playing time picture.
Cubs Designate Trey Mancini For Assignment
The Cubs are designating veteran first baseman Trey Mancini for assignment, as noted by Bruce Levine of WSCR-AM. BleacherNation’s Michael Cerami was first with the news that Mancini would be removed from the roster. Mancini’s departure coincides with the impending return of third baseman Jeimer Candelario, who will now join the active roster following the Cubs’ deal to re-acquire him from the Nationals yesterday.
Mancini, who signed a two-year deal with the Cubs this past offseason, sees his tenure in Chicago come to an end after less than a full season. It’s been a brutal season at the dish for Mancini, who has slashed just .234/.299/.336 in 263 plate appearances with the Cubs this season, a line good for a well below-average wRC+ of just 74. That limited production has come while Mancini has spent time at first base, in right field, and as the club’s DH this season, grading well below average defensive at the former two positions.
Mancini’s struggles at the plate date back to a mid-season trade that sent him from the Orioles to the Astros last year. In 51 regular season games for the 2022 World Series champions in Houston, Mancini struggled mightily to a .178/.258/.364 slash line. That performance in Houston was hampered by an unsustainably low .191 BABIP, but no such misfortune plagues Mancini in Chicago, where his wOBA (.280) was actually higher than his xwOBA (.270) and his .327 BABIP was slightly above his career mark of .313.
Candelario, Patrick Wisdom, Miguel Amaya, and Cody Bellinger are all options for the Cubs at first base currently on the major league roster, with first base prospect Matt Mervis waiting in the wings at Triple-A. Mervis struggled to adjust to big league pitching earlier this year in 99 trips to the plate, but has slashed .297/.400/.553 for his career at the Triple-A level, leaving room for optimism he could contribute at the big league level in the future.
Cubs Interested In Left-Handed Bullpen Arms
The Cubs, after surging back to .500 ahead of the trade deadline thanks to a recent eight-game win streak, have left their previously-expected role as sellers behind them and instead pivoted toward buying by landing third baseman Jeimer Candelario in a deal with the Nationals yesterday. With just a couple of hours left before the trade deadline, Chicago appears to have at least one more item on their shopping list: relief pitching, particularly from the left side.
Both Bruce Levine of WSCR-AM and Jesse Rogers of ESPN have linked the club to the lefty relief market in recent days, with Levine noting the club’s interest in Mets left-hander Brooks Raley while Rogers lists Rockies southpaw Brent Suter and Aaron Bummer of the White Sox as potential options for the Cubs. Jon Heyman of the New York Post, meanwhile, suggested a reunion with the Cubs as one possible destination for Diamondbacks lefty Andrew Chafin, who he suggests “could be dealt” before this evening’s deadline.
While the club appears to have a preference for a southpaw, they’ve also apparently explored adding right-handed relief options, as Levine reports the club has “kicked the tires” on Pirates closer David Bednar while Rogers suggests the club could have interest in Tigers right-handers Alex Lange and Jason Foley. While the club already added a right-handed relief option yesterday by acquiring Jose Cuas from the Royals, each of Bednar, Lange, and Foley would figure to be a more impactful option than Cuas, who sports a 4.54 ERA in 45 appearances this season.
That the bullpen would be a focus for Chicago is hardly a surprise, as the club’s 3.93 in the bullpen this season ranks middle-of-the-pack, with offseason acquisitions Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer having largely struggled in Chicago while expected late-inning options Keegan Thompson and Brandon Hughes have struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness.