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Liam Hendriks Undergoes Ulnar Nerve Transposition Surgery

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The Red Sox announced this afternoon that right-hander Liam Hendriks underwent successful right elbow ulnar nerve transposition surgery today, as relayed by MassLive’s Chris Cotillo. A timeline for Hendriks’s recovery was not announced.

Hendriks, 36, was shut down with forearm tightness earlier this month. The right-hander has recorded just 18 2/3 innings over the past three seasons due to a battle with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, as well as Tommy John surgery. He returned to the mound in April of this year for the Red Sox, but was sidelined by what was initially described as hip inflammation, though Hendriks later clarified he was diagnosed with a hernia that eventually turned out to be an abdominal strain. Whatever the ailment that sidelined him throughout the summer was, Hendriks was on the way towards a return before the aforementioned tightness in his forearm cropped up.

That tightness led to today’s surgery, which is a somewhat common follow-up procedure after Tommy John surgery. As noted by Cotillo, Hendriks’s Red Sox teammate Zack Kelly underwent the same procedure in 2023. After going under the knife at the beginning of May that year, he returned to a big league mound just under five months later at the tail end of September. If Hendriks were to follow a similar recovery timeline, that would allow him to be only slightly delayed coming into Spring Training 2026 and may not impact his availability for next year’s Opening Day at all.

Whether that return to the mound will come with the Red Sox or in another organization is up in the air. The club and Hendriks hold a mutual option for the 2026 season valued at $12MM, but mutual options virtually never get exercised and it seems all but certain the Red Sox will decline their end of the option and instead pay Hendriks a $2MM buyout as he returns to the free agent market. Once there, it will be interesting to see how he’s valued by the rest of the league. The righty’s lack of innings in recent years, laundry list of injury woes, and ugly 6.59 ERA when he was healthy enough to pitch for the Red Sox this year might make him seem like an arm who won’t be able to garner more than a minor league offer.

Hendriks’s value cannot be so easily dismissed, however. After all, this is a pitcher who was on the shortlist for the very best relief arms in all of baseball the last time he was truly healthy. From 2019 to 2022, Hendriks made three All-Star games and twice received MLB’s Reliever of the Year award for his stellar work out of the bullpen. In that four-year stretch, Hendriks posted a dazzling 2.26 ERA with an even better 2.13 FIP, struck out 38.8% of his opponents, and collected 114 saves.

Even with Hendriks’s age and injury history, a player with a track record that elite is bound to garner some serious interest from bullpen-needy clubs. After all, Kirby Yates had a similar three-year stretch of injury woes from 2020 to 2022 before he turned things around to post a 2.21 ERA with Atlanta and Texas in his age-36 and -37 seasons. David Robertson threw just 18 2/3 innings between 2019 and 2021 before enjoying a resurgence with the Cubs in 2022 that has extended his career past his fortieth birthday. Kenley Jansen will celebrate his 38th birthday tomorrow, while Aroldis Chapman will do the same in February. Neither age nor years of injury woes are necessarily a death knell for an elite reliever’s career, and there will surely be teams interested in rolling the dice on Hendriks this winter to see if he can be the next injured hurler to recapture his All-Star form in his late thirties.

The Opener: Postseason, Leadership Changes, End-Of-Season Pressers

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The 2025 regular season is in the books. Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world in the final day before the playoffs:

1. Teams gear up for the postseason:

The 2025 playoff field is now set. The Reds squeaked into the NL’s final Wild Card spot over the Mets, while the Guardians’ late surge pushed Detroit out of the AL Central division title and the Astros out of the playoffs entirely. The Brewers, Phillies, Blue Jays, and Mariners get to enjoy a few days off to prepare for the start of the Division Series, but the rest of the playoff field now needs to focus on the Wild Card Series, which begins tomorrow. The Tigers, Padres, Red Sox, and Reds will need to travel to Cleveland, Chicago, New York, and Los Angeles respectively. All eight teams will be weighing who exactly will make the final cut of their Wild Card roster.

2. Which teams will see leadership changes?

The end of a season brings with it the winds of change around baseball for many of the league’s losing teams. The Nationals have already settled on Red Sox executive Paul Toboni as their new president of baseball operations, and that’s likely just the first of several notable changes. Interim managers in Washington, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Colorado could have the “interim” tag removed from their titles or be shown the door, and there’s additional managerial uncertainty in places like Anaheim, San Francisco, and Atlanta. Meanwhile, Houston GM Dana Brown told reporters yesterday that a “full assessment” of the Astros organization will be taken after the team’s playoff miss this year, and other teams facing disappointing ends to their season will undergo similar evaluation periods.

3. End-of-season press conferences:

Traditionally, most organizations will have the head of baseball operations hold a press conference or otherwise make comments to the media following the conclusion of their team’s season. These media sessions typically include the president/GM reflecting on that year’s campaign, indicating where the organization might be headed in the future, and discussing in broad strokes their short-term plans for the coming offseason. These comments often offer valuable insight into the organization, particular in the cases of executives who don’t talk to the media very often or newly-appointed leadership figures. Most of the 18 clubs that missed the postseason will hold a press conference or offer some sort of comments in the coming days.

Ron Washington Discusses Surgery Rehab, Future With Angels

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The Angels have been without manager Ron Washington since late June after he went on medical leave away from the team, and he revealed to reporters last month that he was recovering from quadruple bypass surgery. Even in spite of that recovery from major surgery, however, the 73-year-old still hopes to manage the Angels in 2026. Washington reaffirmed that desire in a conversation with Sam Blum of The Athletic, who reports to today that Washington has not yet spoken to Halos owner Arte Moreno about his future but hopes to do so in the next few days.

“I just want to sit down and talk baseball with him,” Washington told Blum of Moreno. “I’ll let them decide if I’m the guy to lead the club.”

Washington added that he also hasn’t spoken to club GM Perry Minasian about his future with the club. The Halos hold a club option on Washington’s services for the 2026 season, while Blum notes Minasian himself has one year left on his contract with Anaheim. According to Blum, much of the club’s leadership is facing uncertainty headed into the final days of the regular season, as interim manager Ray Montgomery has also expressed uncertainty about his future in the organization but remains in the mix to manage the team in 2026.

There’s a number of factors at play that could be weighing on Moreno’s mind as he decides what direction to take the club moving forward. The most obvious, perhaps, is the team’s lengthy playoff drought and disappointing results in recent years. The Angels have 88 losses with two games left to go in the 2025 season, and that performance comes on the heels of last year’s 99-loss campaign and back-to-back 89-loss seasons in 2022 and ’23. For years, the Angels have hung their hopes on the idea that a healthy season for Mike Trout could help them get back to October, but Trout has played in 128 games this year and turned in results that are less than stellar by his lofty standards even as he remains an above average bat overall.

Perhaps Trout can build on this year and turn in a season more like his vintage, MVP-caliber performances of a decade ago in 2026. Failing that, however, the Angels will need to change at least somewhat if they’re going to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2014. It’s hardly unthinkable that Moreno could look see the uncertain contract situations of Washington, Montgomery, and Minasian over the next year as an opportunity to shake up the organization and bring in new voices. With that being said, there are some factors at play that create an argument for sticking with the status quo.

Notably, the team was doing better than this record would suggest when Washington was actually at the helm of the club. He took medical leave when the club had a 40-40 record and sat just one game back of an AL Wild Card spot. It’s difficult to argue that the team’s poor record this year lies at Washington’s feet when he was away from the organization for their 25-39 stumble after the All-Star break. What’s more, Blum suggests that Moreno may not be interested in bringing in new leaders for the organization on multi-year agreements with a likely lockout on the horizon following the 2026 season.

That could be due to financial reasons, as a lockout that bleeds into the season would result in cancelled games and lost revenue, but another factor could be the uncertainty surrounding the landscape of the game when the dust settles on the next round of collective bargaining. If a salary cap is put into place, as whispers around baseball have indicated MLB is hoping to accomplish, that would surely have significant repercussions about how teams all around the league conduct their business. Knowing what sort of financial system MLB will be operating under for the foreseeable future would surely be helpful when deciding who is best suited to lead the organization for what could wind up being the rest of the decade or longer.

Another factor, Blum writes, figures to be Washington’s health. Washington is already the oldest manager in the majors by a few years. 70-year-old Rangers skipper Bruce Bochy is the only other septuagenarian leading a dugout at the moment, though Brian Snitker of Atlanta will celebrate his 70th birthday in October and has not yet made a decision about his future beyond the 2025 campaign. Between Washington’s age and him coming off major heart surgery, there’s risk for both him and the club in bringing him back into the dugout next year and hanging him a stressful job with a difficult schedule and plenty of responsibility like that of a big league manager.

Despite those possible concerns, Blum notes that Washington has no interest in moving into a front office role at this point. He called himself a “hands-on guy” who prefers to work directly with the players in conversation with Blum, and noted that he was confident he would be working for one of the league’s organizations next year in that sort of role, whether that’s a managerial job or a different role. Outside of his stints managing the Rangers and Angels, Washington spent seven years as third base coach of the Braves and won a World Series with the organization in 2021.

The Opener: Playoff Races, Morton, Manoah

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Here are three things to keep an eye on headed into the final weekend of the regular season:

1. Playoff races still up for grabs:

Eight teams (the Blue Jays, Yankees, Mariners, Phillies, Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, and Padres) have punched their tickets to October already. That leaves four spots up for grabs headed into the final weekend of the regular season. Here’s a quick overview of the teams still fighting for a spot, with playoff odds courtesy of FanGraphs:

  • The Red Sox have a 98.7% chance to make playoffs with a magic number of one. Their final regular season series is against the Tigers and is expected to feature starts from Kyle Harrison (3.58 ERA in ten appearances), Connelly Early (1.88 ERA in three starts), and an unnamed third starter.
  • The Guardians have an 88.6% chance to make the playoffs with a magic number of two. Their final regular season series is against the Rangers and is expected to feature starts from Slade Cecconi (4.15 ERA in 22 starts) and two unnamed starters.
  • The Tigers have an 84.1% chance to make the playoffs with a magic number of two. Their final regular season series is against the Red Sox and is expected to feature starts from Casey Mize (3.91 ERA in 27 starts) and two unnamed starters.
  • The Mets have a 77.8% chance to make the playoffs with a magic number of three. Their final regular season series is against the Marlins and will feature starts from Brandon Sproat (3.94 ERA in three starts) and two unnamed starters.
  • The Astros have a 28.6% chance to make the playoffs and sit one game back of a playoff spot. Their final regular season series is against the Angels and will feature starts from Jason Alexander (4.83 ERA in 17 appearances) and two unnamed starters.
  • The Reds have a 20.2% chance to make the playoffs and sit one game back of a playoff spot. Their final regular season series is against the Brewers and will feature starts from Zack Littell (3.86 ERA in 31 starts), Andrew Abbott (2.80 ERA in 28 starts), and Brady Singer (3.95 ERA in 31 starts).
  • The Diamondbacks have a 2% chance to make the playoffs and sit two games back of a playoff spot. Their final regular season series is against the Padres and will feature starts from Zac Gallen (4.70 ERA in 32 starts), Eduardo Rodriguez (4.91 ERA in 28 starts), and Brandon Pfaadt (5.00 ERA in 32 starts).

2. Morton to suit up for Braves one last time:

It’s been a rough year for veteran right-hander Charlie Morton, who posted a 5.89 ERA in 32 appearances with the Orioles and Tigers and recently signed on with the Braves after being designated for assignment and released by Detroit. Morton has hinted at retirement repeatedly over the years, and some have suggested that his latest deal is an opportunity to retire as a member of the club that originally drafted him back in 2002 and the club with which he won a World Series in 2021. Morton has a 3.87 ERA with Atlanta across 124 starts, and his 125th start of his Braves career is scheduled for the club’s final game of the regular season against the Pirates on Sunday. He’ll pitch opposite Johan Oviedo, who has a 3.57 ERA in eight starts this year for Pittsburgh.

3. Will Manoah get claimed?

The Blue Jays made the decision to cut ties with right-hander Alek Manoah earlier this week, and now that he’s been designated for assignment, he’s available to the league’s other 29 clubs for nothing but the remainder of his salary. Of course, a claiming club would have to be willing to pay him his arbitration-level salary for the 2026 season as well. Manoah’s 2025 salary was $2.2MM, and he figures to make the same amount for 2026 if tendered a contract.

The upside Manoah offers is obvious, as he finished third in AL Cy Young voting during the 2022 season off the back of a 2.24 ERA in 196 1/3 innings of work. He struggled badly in 2023 with a 5.87 ERA and 6.01 FIP in 19 starts, however, and he’s made just five starts since then due to Tommy John surgery. Manoah is still just 27 years old and will hardly break the bank, making him one of the more intriguing late-season waiver possibilities in recent memory.

The Opener: Raleigh, Schwarber, Red Sox, AL Central

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Here are four things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Raleigh chasing Judge’s record:

The Mariners clinched the AL West yesterday, and they did so on back of two more home runs from AL MVP candidate Cal Raleigh. Those homers were the 59th and 60th of Raleigh’s season, making him the seventh player in MLB history to hit 60 long balls in a single season. With the records for most home runs by a catcher, most home runs by a Mariner, and most home runs by a switch-hitter all locked up, Raleigh has one more major milestone he can reach this year: the AL home run record, set by fellow AL MVP candidate Aaron Judge just three years ago. Raleigh would need two more homers to match Judge’s record and three more to break it. That’s going to be a tall order with just four games left, but Raleigh has already hit four homers in his past four games and has recorded 11 multi-homer games throughout the year.

2. Schwarber chasing Howard:

Raleigh wasn’t the only star slugger to have a multi-homer game last night. Kyle Schwarber hit his 55th and 56th home runs of the season, leaving him just two dingers behind Ryan Howard’s franchise record of 58 homers. Like Raleigh’s pursuit of the AL record, Schwarber is facing long odds with just four games left on the calendar. However, he does benefit from those games being against non-contenders; Philadelphia wraps a series against the Marlins today before completing their regular season schedule with a three-game set against the Twins, who have been MLB’s worst team since their sell-off at the trade deadline.

3. Red Sox aim to clinch:

The Red Sox could punch their ticket to the postseason today. They’ll go for the sweep against their division rival Blue Jays and send Brayan Bello (3.34 ERA) to the mound while Toronto opts for a bullpen game opened by Louis Varland (3.10 ERA in 72 relief appearances). Boston could still clinch even if they lose that game, however, as they’ll also lock up a postseason spot if the Athletics and righty J.T. Ginn (4.57 ERA in 15 starts) manage to take down the Astros and southpaw Framber Valdez. Valdez has a solid 3.75 ERA in 30 starts this year, but it’s worth noting that he’s struggled badly with a 6.71 ERA since the start of August. If and when the Red Sox do punch their postseason ticket, it’ll be their first trip to the playoffs since 2021.

4. Guardians go for the sweep:

Cleveland’s stunning Cinderella run for the AL Central crown seemingly cannot be stopped. The Guardians sat a whopping 9.5 games out of first place as recently as Sept. 10, but they’ve stormed to sole possession of the AL Central lead by winning 18 of their past 21 games — including two in a row against the now-second-place Tigers, who’ve spent nearly the entire season in first place. The Guards haven’t lost back-to-back games since Sept. 1-2.

That historic run wouldn’t have catapulted them into first place had Detroit sustained its prior pace — or even if the Tigers had simply been playing decently. Instead, the inverse of last year’s storybook run in Detroit has played out. The Tigers have faceplanted with a 5-15 record in September, including a current eight-game losing streak. They’re still in possession of a Wild Card spot, holding a one-game lead over an also-reeling Astros club that has lost five in a row. The Tigers will look to stop the bleeding and push back into a tie for the division lead in today’s series finale. Detroit will turn to rookie righty Troy Melton, who has a 2.79 ERA but has been working in multi-inning relief stints lately. It’ll likely be a bullpen game for manager AJ Hinch. The Guardians will counter with lefty Parker Messick. The rookie southpaw has been a major factor in Cleveland’s sprint to first place, having logged a 2.08 ERA in 34 2/3 innings across six starts since making his MLB debut on Aug. 20.

The Opener: AL East, Reds, Fry

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. AL East race tightens:

The Blue Jays have been in control of the AL East for almost three months, but their hold on the division is getting shakier. The Yankees not only clinched yesterday after their third consecutive win — they pulled within a game of a Blue Jays club that lost to the Red Sox. If the Yankees and southpaw Max Fried (2.92 ERA) can take care of business against the White Sox in a bullpen game opened by Fraser Ellard (4.50 ERA in 16 appearances), they’ll have the chance to pull into a tie with the Jays. Toronto has a tough task tonight with Boston ace Garrett Crochet (2.69 ERA) on the mound against Max Scherzer (5.06 ERA in 16 starts). It’s worth noting that the Yankees would need to make up another game even after today, as the Jays hold the tiebreaker after winning the season series between the two clubs.

2. Reds, Greene take on Skenes in pivotal pitchers’ duel:

The Mets bested the Cubs in a back-and-forth series opener last night, while the Reds dropped their series opener against Pittsburgh to fall one game back in the Wild Card race. That’s a significant drop with just a handful of games to go, and the road doesn’t get any easier with NL Cy Young favorite Paul Skenes standing in their way tonight. Fortunately for Cincinnati, they’re able to counter with their own ace. Hunter Greene has been limited to just 18 starts by injury, he’s pitched to a 2.74 ERA and struck out 31.5% of his opponents when healthy.

3. Fry hospitalized following hit-by-pitch:

A scary scene took place in yesterday’s game between the Tigers and Guardians when Cleveland designated hitter David Fry was struck in the face by a 99 mph fastball from reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. As noted by MLB.com’s Tim Stebbins, Fry stayed conscious the entire time but was being held for observation overnight at a local hospital. The extent of Fry’s injuries aren’t yet known, but it seems reasonable to expect the injury could sideline him for the final week of the regular season and into the playoffs, should the Guardians manage to sustain their incredible comeback. Last night’s 5-2 win pulled Cleveland into a tie with a reeling Detroit club. Tonight’s game will pit Tigers right-hander Jack Flaherty (4.60 ERA) against Guards righty Tanner Bibee (4.34 ERA).

Poll: Will The Pirates Trade Mitch Keller This Winter?

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This trade season, a number of controllable players were heavily rumored to be on the market who ultimately did not end up getting traded at all. Among that group, one of the most surprising players who wound up staying put with their current club was Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller. The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mets, and Cubs were all connected to Keller over the summer, and at one point a proper fire sale seemed to be on the table for Pittsburgh.

A deal didn’t come to pass with any of those clubs, however. Keller, Bryan Reynolds, and even pending free agents like Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Andrew Heaney were still in Pittsburgh come August 1. On some level, that seems to reflect the front office’s belief in the team as a potential short-term competitor, even in spite of its major flaws. GM Ben Cherington told reporters just recently that he believes the team can contend in 2026, so it stands to reason that a player like Oneil Cruz might not be on the market at this point, even if there were reasons to believe a team could’ve pried him away a few months ago.

That doesn’t necessarily mean room to make trades goes out the window, however. In that same conversation with reporters, Cherington acknowledged that upgrading the offense on the trade market was on the table for the Pirates heading into this winter. While Pittsburgh has one of the richest farm systems in the majors from which they could deal if so inclined, an organization that regularly runs some of the lowest payrolls in MLB may not want to part with packages rich with prospect capital to acquire just one or two hitters. That could make trading for the MLB roster an attractive alternative, and when looking at the players already in the majors it’s not hard to see why Keller in particular could be a piece it would make sense for Pittsburgh to part with.

While the right-hander looked quite good in the first half of the 2025 season, his numbers began to falter after the All-Star break. In his last 11 starts, he’s posted a 5.87 ERA and 5.21 FIP across 53 2/3 innings of work. Brutal as those numbers may be, when zooming out to look at his full-season stats, one sees that this tough stretch really only brought him back to what he’s established as his career norm at this point. For three seasons in a row now, Keller has made between 31 and 32 starts with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.25 with a FIP between 3.80 and 4.10. That’s remarkably consistent for a starting pitcher in today’s game. And while that works out to roughly league average production, average results with that volume and consistency are still valuable.

Valuable as Keller might be in theory, he’s not exactly a fit for the Pirates’ needs in practice. Paul Skenes offers plenty of consistency at the front of Pittsburgh’s rotation with much more impressive production. And while Keller is the only other established arm in the club’s starting five, a bevy of intriguing young arms like Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, and Braxton Ashcraft appear poised to step into larger roles as soon as next year. With so many young players who have mid-rotation upside or better in the upper levels of the farm system starting to get their feet wet in the majors, perhaps sinking nearly $17MM in salary next year into a player who provides only average results doesn’t make much sense for a team that RosterResource suggests will finish 2025 with a payroll of less than $87MM.

That’s not to say he wouldn’t be valuable to other clubs, however. Keller’s contract is arguably slightly below market rate for a pitcher with his impressive consistency. Former Pirate Jameson Taillon received a four-year, $68MM contract from the Cubs during the 2022-23 offseason after two seasons as a Yankee with similar results to Keller’s recent work. And Yusei Kikuchi’s roughly league average work with the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Astros over the years earned him nearly $64MM over three years with the Angels just last offseason. By that metric, the just over $55MM Keller is owed over the next three seasons looks like something of a bargain for a large- or even mid-market club in need of rotation help, or it’s at least roughly market rate.

If the Pirates are able to work out a trade for a young, controllable hitter involving Keller and then reinvest Keller’s salary into position player talent, they could significantly retool their lineup by dealing the right-hander away. Of course, that course of action would risk the possibility that Keller puts it all together in the future and delivers a full season like his first half (3.48 ERA, 3.39 FIP) at some point after the trade, at which point the Pirates would have likely sold low on the righty. Keller won’t turn 30 until April of next year, so a step forward isn’t impossible to imagine even in spite of his year-to-year consistency. Trading Keller would also be a big gamble on the team’s young rotation talent, of whom only Skenes has proven himself truly reliable at this point. Perhaps that could be eased by signing another low-cost veteran like Heaney to offer some stability, but that would eat into the budget for improving the club’s offense.

How would MLBTR readers approach Keller this offseason, if they were in the Pirates’ shoes? Would they aggressively shop him for offense, or would they hold onto him for 2026 unless overwhelmed by an offer? Have your say in the poll below:

The Opener: Possible Clinches, Tigers, Guardians, MLBTR Chat

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Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on today:

1. Possible clinches in the AL:

The Yankees and Mariners are all but guaranteed a playoff spot, and today’s games could remove the “all but” qualifier from that phrase. If the Yankees beat the White Sox, they’ll clinch a playoff spot for themselves and also open the door for the Mariners to clinch a spot with a win over the Rockies later in the evening. Yankees right-hander Luis Gil (3.33 ERA in nine starts) will take on rookie righty Shane Smith (4.06 ERA) in today’s Yankees/White Sox game, scheduled to begin at 7:05pm local time. The Mariners host the Rockies in a game set for 6:40pm local time. Mariners righty Bryce Miller (5.56 ERA in 16 starts) and Rox rookie McCade Brown (9.17 ERA in five starts) are expected to take the mound.

2. Series Preview: Tigers @ Guardians

Arguably the most high-stakes series remaining on the 2025 calendar starts today when the slumping Tigers head to Cleveland for a three-game set against the surging Guardians. Detroit has lost six games in a row, and while the Guardians saw their win streak snapped at ten games on Sunday, they’ve still won 16 of their past 19 games. That remarkable stretch leaves Cleveland just one game back of the Tigers in the AL Central. Detroit will hope to jump out to a quick series lead tonight with AL Cy Young front-runner Tarik Skubal (2.23 ERA) on the mound opposite Guardians righty Gavin Williams (3.06 ERA). Tomorrow, Jack Flaherty (4.60 ERA) will take on Tanner Bibee (4.34 ERA). The series wraps Thursday with Guardians rookie Parker Messick (2.08 ERA in six starts) set to go for Cleveland, while Detroit’s starter remains TBD.

3. MLBTR chat today:

We’re just a week away from the postseason, and with plenty of teams still fighting for a playoff spot it’s sure to be an exciting last few days. Whether you’re invested in this final stretch of the season or already are turning your attention towards the upcoming offseason free agent and trade markets, MLBTR’s Steve Adams has you covered in a live chat at 1pm CT later today. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Poll: Jack Flaherty’s Player Option

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Entering the 2024-25 offseason, Jack Flaherty was viewed by many as one of the most attractive starting pitchers on the market. He was coming off a brilliant season (3.17 ERA in 28 starts with the Tigers and Dodgers) and had just won a World Series ring, but the things that truly made Flaherty look like an attractive signing relative to the rest of the crowd were ancillary factors. He wasn’t attached to draft pick compensation via the Qualifying Offer, he was younger than most free agent starters as he hit the market ahead of his age-29 season, and he wasn’t projected for the sort of megadeal that top arms with longer track records like Max Fried and Corbin Burnes were expected to get.

Many fans were dreaming on the idea of bringing Flaherty in as an arm with ace-level potential who could fit their team’s budget, but those hopes and projections did not account for just how concerned rival clubs would be about Flaherty’s health status. The Yankees pulled out of a trade that would’ve allowed them to acquire the righty from the Tigers at last year’s deadline due to concerns about his medical records. Perhaps those concerns seeped into Flaherty’s free agent market, as a winter that was generally favorable to starting pitchers saw the right-hander forced to settle for a short-term deal rather than land the nine-figure deal many expected him to get entering the winter.

After returning to the Tigers on a two-year, $35MM guarantee once his market dried up, Flaherty turned in a somewhat middling performance this year. While he started out strong with similar numbers to last year through his first six starts, the right-hander went on to struggle badly in both May and June, and entered the month of July with a 4.80 ERA and a 4.59 FIP. Those numbers painted Flaherty as barely a league average starter. When he escalated his player option for the 2026 season from $10MM up to $20MM, it seemed like maybe he would simply exercise that option and hope for better luck next season on a healthy salary.

His performance in the second half has complicated things somewhat. In 14 starts since the beginning of July, Flaherty has a 4.35 ERA that remains pedestrian at best. A closer look at his numbers in the second half reveals a lot of reason for optimism, however. With a .344 BABIP allowed and a strand rate of just 69.5%, it’s clear that the right-hander has had some real misfortune when it comes to batted ball and sequencing luck, both things that are generally out of a pitcher’s control. In terms of the things Flaherty does have the most control over, he’s actually excelled. He’s struck out 26.5% of his opponents, good for 13th among qualified starters in that time frame, with a 7.8% walk rate. His 18.8% K-BB rate is in the top 20.

When looking at ERA estimators under those same parameters, Flaherty’s 3.67 SIERA ranks 18th and only five starters have outperformed his 3.04 FIP: Paul Skenes, Trevor Rogers, Cristopher Sanchez, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and George Kirby. Impressive as that company is, the fact that Flaherty has remained healthy this year may be even more important given those previous questions about his medicals. He’s made 30 starts this year for the first time since 2019, and just the second time of his career. His next start against the Guardians on Wednesday will most likely see him surpass last year’s innings pitched total as well.

Flaherty’s excellent second half peripherals and encouraging health this year might make opting out seem like an obvious choice for the right-hander, but the inescapable reality of his situation is that his actual run prevention this year simply hasn’t been very good. The right-hander sports a 4.60 ERA headed into what’s likely to be his final start of the regular season, and that figure ranks just 40th among 51 qualified starters in the big leagues this year. Landing the sort of nine-figure deal Flaherty was hoping to get last offseason off the back of a platform season like that doesn’t seem terribly realistic.

Even with a top-dollar free agent deal likely out of reach, though, there’s still a real argument for exercising the opt out. After all, Flaherty seems all but certain to beat that $20MM guarantee if he opts out. It was just last offseason that Walker Buehler landed a guarantee in excess of $20MM on the heels of a 2024 season where he pitched to a 5.38 ERA across 16 starts coming off Tommy John surgery, while pitchers like Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton who offered very little certainty were able to secure $15MM salaries on one-year deals. If this year’s market ends up being anything like last season, Flaherty should have little trouble beating his option price tag in terms of total guarantee with a strong chance to beat that salary outright.

While the Tigers could extend him the Qualifying Offer in the event that he decides to opt out if they were so inclined, that would still be the case next year as well. What’s more, simply accepting the QO would actually constitute a small raise for Flaherty relative to his option salary, as it’s projected to land around $22MM this offseason. If Detroit opted not to extend the QO to him, on the other hand, he’d once again be an attractive, high-potential arm unencumbered by draft pick compensation. In a free agent market where virtually every starter comes with real question marks, it’s not hard to imagine a team overlooking Flaherty’s lackluster results this year to make a healthy multi-year offer, or at least offer him a more lucrative pillow contract than the one he’d be opting out of.

How do MLBTR readers think Flaherty should approach his option decision this November? Should he stick with the Tigers in hopes that he puts it all together in 2026 with a truly ace-caliber season, or should he test the open market and look for the safety of a larger immediate guarantee? Have your say in the poll below:

The Opener: AL Playoff Race, Padres, Brewers, Pitchers’ Duel

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As we enter the final week of the 2025 regular season, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on:

1. AL contenders prepare for a hectic week:

No teams in the American League have games scheduled for today, giving everyone in the league a breather ahead of a wild final week of the regular season. Only the Blue Jays have clinched a postseason spot among the AL’s teams, and even they haven’t clinched a division title. The Yankees and Mariners appear all but guaranteed a playoff spot at this point, but the Red Sox and Tigers are still facing realistic scenarios where they’re on the outside looking in come October. The Astros and MLB’s hottest club, the resurgent Guardians, are vying for that final spot in the playoffs. With series coming up between Cleveland and Detroit, Boston and Toronto, and Detroit and Boston before the regular season comes to a close, there are plenty of big games to watch throughout the week that will impact the AL playoff picture in a big way.

2. Series Preview: Brewers @ Padres

Over in the NL, one big series between playoff contenders is set to commence today when the Brewers head to San Diego. Milwaukee has already clinched the NL Central but will still need to fend of the Phillies to secure home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Padres, meanwhile, have not yet clinched a playoff berth (although they’re very close to doing so), and they also sit just three games back of the Dodgers in the NL West.

San Diego would love a late hot streak to pry the NL West away from the Dodgers, but Brewers ace Freddy Peralta (2.65 ERA) stands in the way of that today. The Friars will counter with Nick Pivetta (2.81 ERA) opposite Peralta. Randy Vasquez (3.94 ERA) will take on an as-of-yet unannounced Brewers starter for Game 2. The series wraps with Milwaukee’s Quinn Priester (3.25 ERA) on the mound, while the Padres’ starter for that final game is still TBD. The set is scheduled to kick off at 6:40pm local time in San Diego this evening.

3. Star lefties face off in the NL East:

Neither the Braves nor the Nationals are a factor in the postseason race, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t intrigue to be found in their game this evening. One of the top up-and-coming lefties in the game, Nationals southpaw MacKenzie Gore, is set to take on reigning Cy Young winner Chris Sale in Atlanta. First pitch will be 7:15pm local time.

It’s been an up-and-down year for Gore, who looked like a Cy Young contender early on but started to slip during the summer months and wound up taking a trip to the injured list. He’s posted a 1.74 ERA in two starts since returning and will look to finish the season on a strong note. Sale had a chance to repeat as the NL’s Cy Young winner until a ribcage injury sidelined him over the summer. He’s been elite when healthy, posting a 2.35 ERA with a 32.3% strikeout rate, but he’s been limited to 115 innings and 19 starts this season.

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