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Michel Baez Signs With Mexican League’s Sultanes de Monterrey

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Right-hander Michel Baez has signed with the Mexican League’s Sultanes de Monterrey, according to a report from Francys Romero. It will be Baez’s second stint with the club, as he pitched for Monterrey during the 2024 season as well.

Baez, 29, signed with the Padres out of Cuba prior to the 2017 season and quickly became a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport. He made his major league debut in 2019 and posted some impressive numbers out of the gate, as he pitched to a 3.03 ERA (139 ERA+) despite a 21.4% strikeout rate and 10.7% walk rate that led to a 4.36 FIP in 29 2/3 innings of work. Despite those potential red flags in Baez’s peripherals, his move to the bullpen ahead of his big league debut appeared to be a resounding success, and the right-hander figured to be a key part of San Diego’s bullpen mix for years to come.

Unfortunately, that’s not how things turned out. Baez would appear in just five more MLB games after 2019, three of which came during the shortened 2020 season. The right-hander was then sidelined by Tommy John surgery in 2021 and didn’t return to the big leagues until the following year, when he made two brief appearances with the Padres. Baez was designated for assignment prior to Opening Day 2023 and was outrighted to the minors shortly thereafter. He spent the entire 2023 season in the Padres’ minor league system before being released that December.

While injuries such as his aforementioned Tommy John surgery surely played a role in Baez’s struggles, it’s worth noting that the right-hander did not have much success even in the upper levels of the minors during his final seasons in affiliated ball. The righty pitched to an 8.44 ERA in 24 appearances at Triple-A back in 2022, and the 2023 campaign saw him post a 7.90 ERA at Triple-A and identical 6.75 figures at both the Double-A and High-A levels. Those brutal results were paired with lackluster peripherals, as in 2023 Baez walked 13.4% of his opponents while striking out just 17.4% throughout all levels of the minors.

Baez’s struggles in affiliated ball led him to participate in the Mexican League last year, but his first stint with Monterrey did not go especially well. The right-hander made just seven appearances with six innings of work in total, but he was shelled to the tune of a 7.50 ERA with four walks and a hit batter against five strikeouts. The club, which featured former big leaguers such as Nomar Mazara and Christian Villanueva in 2024, is surely hoping for better results from Baez this season. The right-hander is still in his 20s and has some previous big league success under his belt, so it’s certainly not impossible to imagine him fashioning himself into a useful pitcher for the Sultanes and perhaps even getting another shot in affiliated ball at some point in the future.

Zach Penrod Facing Significant Absence Due To Elbow Inflammation

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Red Sox lefty Zach Penrod underwent an MRI due to an elbow issue recently, and manager Alex Cora provided an update to reporters (including MassLive’s Chris Cotillo) today on Penrod’s status. While the MRI revealed no structural damage and only elbow inflammation, Cora acknowledged that he’s been shut down for the time being and that Penrod will “be out for a while” even though surgery is not currently on the table.

It’s surely a frustrating development for the 27-year-old rookie, who made his debut near the end of the 2024 season with a 2.25 ERA in seven relief outings. Penrod briefly pitched for the Rangers in rookie ball but spent most of his professional career to this point in indy ball before getting picked up by the Red Sox partway through the 2023 campaign. He dominated Double-A pitching last year but hit something of a wall at Triple-A with a 5.93 ERA in 27 1/3 innings of work across 15 starts. That didn’t stop the Red Sox from giving Penrod a September call-up last year, but despite his solid ERA in the majors he did struggle with more walks (4) than strikeouts (3) at the highest level.

Even so, Penrod appeared likely to be the club’s top lefty depth option entering 2025 behind the trio of southpaws locked into the Opening Day bullpen. Offseason additions Aroldis Chapman and Justin Wilson figure to join Brennan Bernadino on the club’s Opening Day roster to give batters a different look than the rest of the club’s pitching staff, which is dominated by right-handers with ace Garrett Crochet as the only other lefty. Outside of Penrod, all of the club’s minor league depth on the 40-man roster is right-handed, though injured players Patrick Sandoval and Chris Murphy as well as non-roster veteran Matt Moore all pitch left-handed and could help to balance out the roster’s handedness at some point.

It’s not entirely clear how long Penrod is slated to miss, but Cotillo notes that the expectation at the moment is that Penrod won’t be returning to the mound “anytime soon.” That suggests a lengthy rehab process, and given the risks associated with elbow issues it shouldn’t be a surprise if the club is extremely cautious with Penrod as they look to avoid aggravating his ailing elbow to the point where surgery is necessary. Given that, MLB.com notes that Penrod won’t be returning until at some point in May at the earliest, though even that timeline could be an aggressive estimate and it wouldn’t be unusual for Penrod to miss several months due to the ailment.

Weston Wilson Out At Least Six Weeks Due To Oblique Strain

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Phillies manager Rob Thomson told reporters (including Matt Gelb of The Athletic) today that infielder/outfielder Weston Wilson has been diagnosed with a strained oblique that will keep him out of action for at least the next six weeks.

Wilson, 30, was widely viewed as the favorite for the final spot on Philadelphia’s Opening Day bench. Either Rafael Marchan or Garrett Stubbs will occupy one spot as the club’s backup catcher behind J.T. Realmuto, while Edmundo Sosa and Johan Rojas are locked into bench spots already as well. Wilson appeared to be a likely candidate for that final spot due to his right-handed bat that could serve as a complement for Max Kepler and Brandon Marsh in the outfield, as well as his ability to play all four corners and even second base as needed.

The 30-year-old’s big league opportunities have been fairly limited to this point in his career, but the club will surely miss his bat off the bench. Wilson’s done nothing but hit when given the opportunity in the majors, slashing .288/.375/.490 (139 wRC+) for his career including 98 plate appearances last year where he slashed .284/.347/.489 (130 wRC+). Wilson’s career .388 BABIP has propped up his production somewhat to this point, and it’s certain to come down as he gets more opportunities in the majors. With that being said, even the 110 wRC+ Wilson posted at Triple-A last year would be an asset on a Philadelphia bench that lacks much offensive presence.

Unfortunately for Wilson and the Phillies, they won’t get the opportunity to see what he can do as part of the bench mix to open the season. With Wilson now off the table as an option, an opportunity has been created for other players to step into the role. Center fielder Cal Stevenson offered decent production at the plate (100 wRC+) in a brief cup of coffee with the Phillies last year, but his left-handed bat would be somewhat redundant in the club’s outfield mix and he lacks the versatility to play the infield. If the club was going to add a lefty bat to its bench mix, Kody Clemens would seem to be the more natural fit given his experience at all four infield spots and the outfield corners as well as his decent showing in 120 plate appearances with the Phillies last year. While he hit just .219 with a lackluster .258 on-base percentage during that time, he showed plenty of pop with five homers, nine doubles, and a triple that allowed him to post a decent 92 wRC+ overall.

Of course, replacing Wilson with another righty bat would likely make the most sense. Gelb suggests that the injury to Wilson figures to “considerably” improve the odds that 26-year-old infielder Buddy Kennedy makes the club’s Opening Day roster, and it’s not hard to see why. A fifth-round pick by the Diamondbacks in 2017, Kennedy made his big league debut back in 2022 and split 2024 between the Tigers and Phillies organizations. He hit .190/.308/.381 (95 wRC+) in 26 big league plate appearances last year, but more important than his performance in that small sample size was his excellent work for the Phillies at Triple-A Lehigh Valley last year.

In 300 plate appearances, Kennedy slashed an excellent .294/.400/.500 with a 13.7% walk rate that nearly matched his strikeout rate of just 15.0%. If Kennedy can offer anything close to that level of plate discipline in a bench role, he’d be a very valuable bench piece for the club this season. Kennedy has played exclusively second and third base to this point in the majors but has experience at first, shortstop, and left field in the minors. That at least leaves the door open for the club to rely on him as a right-handed complement to Kepler in left field, which likely would’ve been Wilson’s most prominent role.

While it seems likely that the Phillies would prefer to give the final bench job to one of the hitters already on their 40-man roster, there are at least a handful of non-roster invitees who could receive consideration for a bench job. Second baseman Christian Arroyo had some success in the majors with the Red Sox in 2021 and ’22, while outfielder Oscar Mercado has had intermittent success in the majors with Cleveland and St. Louis in the past. Both players are less versatile than what the club may be looking for off the bench, however, and other non-roster veterans like Rodolfo Castro have fairly limited track records in the majors themselves.

Poll: Will The Red Sox Extend Garrett Crochet This Spring?

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The Red Sox had their biggest offseason in years this winter, and after a failed pursuit of Juan Soto kicked things off in earnest by pulling off a massive trade with the White Sox where they sent multiple top prospects to Chicago in exchange for the club’s top left-handed pitcher. That Garrett Crochet deal naturally brought to mind the Chris Sale swap from nearly a decade ago, but one major difference between the two deals is the amount of team control remaining: Sale was locked up for three seasons when the Red Sox acquired him, while Crochet only has two years of team control remaining.

That shorter team control window could pose a problem for the Red Sox, given that their deep cache of impact, upper-level prospect talent is only just beginning to reach the major leagues. If Crochet doesn’t stay in Boston beyond the 2026 season, he may only overlap with top hitters like Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer for a year or so before the club will once again have a vacancy at the top of their rotation. Fortunately for fans in Boston, there seems to be mutual interest in an extension. Crochet spoke about the state of extension talks with the club last month and emphasized how appealing the idea of remaining in Boston long-term was to him just days after the club reportedly approached his camp about the possibility of an extension.

Of course, mutual interest in an extension won’t always lead to a deal and it’s also possible that Crochet’s feelings have shifted. He was asked about the extension possibility again last week, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive, and seemed a bit more open to taking his time: “I think that the long-term security is definitely something attractive. As players, we like to look out for our family first. But with last year being my first taste of starting, part of me also wants to see what I could do with the full season of innings workload. [I] was on a short leash. Part of me wants to see what I could do in a full season before, I suppose, locking myself into a certain bracket of player.”

Crochet and the club will still need to line up on what appropriate value for a deal would be, and that could be quite difficult given Crochet’s extremely unusual career path to this point. Drafted 11th overall by the White Sox in the 2020 draft despite the fact that he had spent most of his time in the SEC pitching out of the bullpen, Crochet was brought straight to the major leagues as a reliever and pitched to a phenomenal 2.54 ERA in 60 1/3 innings of work for Chicago from 2020 to 2021. At the time, the club appeared to be eyeing a rotation role for Crochet in 2022, but he underwent Tommy John surgery that April and did not pitch again in the majors until late in the 2023 season.

By that point, the White Sox had already begun rebuilding. That gave them little reason not to explore using Crochet out of the rotation, and so he stretched out over the winter and was tapped as the club’s Opening Day starter for his first career MLB start last year. The lefty was nothing short of brilliant in 32 starts last year, but nearly tripled his career-high workload with 146 innings of work. The White Sox carefully managed his innings throughout the season in an effort to keep him healthy, and he threw just 44 2/3 innings total over his final 14 starts, less than 3 1/3 innings per start. That lack of volume could raise some questions about Crochet’s ability to stay healthy while handling a traditional starter’s workload, particularly given that his ERA in the first half of the season was just 3.00 while that figured ballooned to 4.84 in the second half.

Those potential workload concerns could tamp down Boston’s willingness to offer Crochet a premium guarantee, even as his underlying numbers suggest a ceiling commensurate with the game’s very best starting pitchers. Crochet’s 2.69 FIP would’ve trailed only Cy Young award winners Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal if he had enough innings to qualify, and his eye-popping 35.1% strikeout rate led all starters who pitched even 20 innings last year. It’s also worth noting that Crochet won’t celebrate his 26th birthday until nearly halfway through the 2025 season, and that youth could help to ease some of Boston’s concerns about his longer-term outlook in terms of health and durability.

With so many competing factors to consider, it’s fair to argue that Crochet is one of the most difficult players to pin down in terms of value. Prior to last summer’s trade deadline, reporting indicated that Crochet may view Tyler Glasnow’s $136.5MM guarantee with the Dodgers as a target for extension talks although, as MLBTR’s Anthony Franco discussed in a post for Front Office subscribers back in August, Glasnow had six years of service time at the time of his deal with L.A. which could make it difficult for Crochet to reach those same heights. If that’s still Crochet’s asking price, it’s possible the Red Sox might prefer to play his first season under club control out and revisit negotiations later this year or next offseason. With that being said, a big season from Crochet would surely push his asking price up substantially. That figures to be especially true if he manages to stay healthy and qualify for the ERA title this year.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out between Crochet and the Red Sox? Will they come together on an extension before Opening Day? Or will the Red Sox wait to see how Crochet performs with the club during his first season in Boston before making a decision? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Do The Mets Need Another Starter?

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The Mets undeniably made the single biggest splash of the entire winter when they brought superstar slugger Juan Soto into the fold on a record-shattering $765MM deal back in December. Along with the club’s reunion with Pete Alonso and some complementary additions like Jesse Winker and Jose Siri, the Mets’ offense appears to be in a very strong place as they look to build off their NLCS appearance last year.

The same cannot be said for the rotation. Despite rumors that connected the Mets to top starters on the trade market like Garrett Crochet and Dylan Cease (as well as plenty of early speculation about the Mets as potential suitors for Corbin Burnes and Max Fried), the club took a far more measured approach to its starting staff. With Kodai Senga and David Peterson already in the fold, the club reunited with southpaw Sean Manaea in free agency while bringing in Clay Holmes, Frankie Montas, and Griffin Canning to replace Luis Severino, Jose Quintana, and Joey Lucchesi on the depth chart.

It’s an interesting group of names, and it’s not hard to see the potential upside in those moves. Holmes becomes the latest well-regarded reliever to try his hand at starting, and success stories like Crochet, Seth Lugo, and Reynaldo Lopez offer a tantalizing glimpse at what Holmes could provide the Mets with should the move work out. Meanwhile, Montas was a well-regarded No. 2 starter as recently as three years ago, and Canning is just one year removed from being a solid back-of-the-rotation arm for the Angels.

Still, there’s plenty of very real risk involved with each of the club’s additions. Holmes could instead follow in the footsteps of less-successful rotation converts like Jordan Hicks or even A.J. Puk. Montas has struggled to stay healthy in recent years and struggled to remain effective even when he is on the mound, and Canning was arguably the single worst qualified starter in baseball last year. Even Manaea is coming off a career year that he may not be able to repeat in his age-33 season this year.

The question marks in the rotation came to a head earlier this week when it was revealed that Montas is currently suffering from a lat strain that was expected to shut him down for six to eight weeks. The veteran righty has since suggested that he’s set for just four to six weeks of no-throw, but that still suggests he may not have even begun throwing when Opening Day rolls around, at which point he’ll still need to make up for the lost preparation time caused by him missing a full spring training. It’s not at all unreasonable to suggest that the Mets will be without Montas until sometime in May. If they still intend to use a six-man rotation, that would likely mean that Senga, Manaea, Peterson, and Holmes will be joined by Canning and Paul Blackburn.

Naturally, questions have arisen about whether the club should make another addition. (MLBTR’s Steve Adams argued that the Mets hadn’t done enough with the rotation even before news of Montas’ injury.) A number of veteran starters are still available in free agency, including four who made MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents list at the outset of the offseason. A recent MLBTR Poll suggested that fans views Quintana as the best of those remaining arms, though the Mets have not been involved in his market despite interest in a reunion from the veteran southpaw’s side.

Even if the Mets aren’t enamored with the possibility of a Quintana reunion, both Andrew Heaney and Spencer Turnbull are still available and could be used either in the rotation or out of the bullpen depending on the club’s needs, affording the Mets flexibility when Montas returns. Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn are among the other veteran arms still available in free agency.

On the other hand, it’s worth noting that the club’s rotation already runs six names deep even without Montas. Neither Canning nor Blackburn can be optioned — both have five-plus years of service — but righties Tylor Megill and Justin Hagenman are both on the 40-man roster and likely ticketed for Triple-A to begin the season. Top prospect Brandon Sproat will likely make his debut at some point in 2025 as well.

If the Mets don’t add anyone right now, they could look for rotation help closer to the trade deadline if it proves necessary. That would allow them to find out more about their offseason rolls of the dice on guys like Montas and Canning before deciding if they need another arm. There will also likely be a larger supply of arms available in July, as the number of sellers will increase relative to spring training, where optimism abounds throughout the league. Perhaps the risk of having to surrender an exciting young piece from their farm system to add an arm this summer makes adding depth now for nothing but money a more attractive option. Each side has its pros and cons.

Where do MLBTR readers stand on the issue? Are the Mets too light on talent in the rotation to compete with the Braves and Phillies for the NL East crown this year without another arm? Or should they stick with their internal options to open the season and reassess their starting depth at the trade deadline this summer? Have your say in the poll below:

The Opener: Spring Training, Athletics, Cubs

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As Spring Training continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Spring Training games begin:

Today marks the first Spring Training game of the year, as the Cubs and Dodgers face off at the latter’s spring home of Camelback Ranch. Chicago and L.A. are getting an earlier start than the rest of the league thanks to their early start to the regular season in Tokyo, which is now less than a month away. The Dodgers are sending right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the mound for the spring opener, while the Cubs will counter with righty Cody Poteet. The Dodgers haven’t revealed who else they intend to pitch in the game beyond Yamamoto, but MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian and Sonja Chen report that non-roster veterans Brad Keller and Brooks Kriske will pitch for Chicago today, as well as youngsters Daniel Palencia and Jack Neely.

2. Extensions coming down the pipe for the A’s?

The Athletics are a team without a permanent home for the time being, but that isn’t stopping them from locking up multi-year talent. After adding Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs to the rotation this offseason, the club extended star DH Brent Rooker with a five-year deal. Now that spring training has begun and the club’s roster is mostly set, the A’s have turned their attention to potentially working out extensions with more pieces of their young core. That reportedly includes outfielder Lawrence Butler, but GM David Forst indicated that the club is talking to other young players as well without naming specific names. Closer Mason Miller, outfielder JJ Bleday, and catcher Shea Langeliers are among the club’s other players who could make some sense as extension targets.

3. Cubs roster move expected:

The Cubs are known to be in agreement with veteran infielder/DH Justin Turner on a contract, and the 40-year-old veteran was reportedly in camp with Chicago yesterday getting his spring work started. That surely means that a formal announcement of Turner’s signing with the team is imminent, but one obstacle remains before the deal can be made official. Chicago’s 40-man roster is full, meaning that the Cubs will need to make room for Turner with a corresponding move in order to officially bring him into the fold. The club has no obvious contenders for a trip to the 60-day injured list, so that will mean either designating a player for assignment or perhaps working out a trade that clears a 40-man roster spot.

Poll: The Dodgers’ Rotation

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The Dodgers have long been expected to utilize a six-man rotation this year in order to accommodate Shohei Ohtani, and have accordingly assembled a deep group of arms. Last week, however, president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman revealed that, with Ohtani not expected to debut as a pitcher until sometime in May, the Dodgers intend to open the season with a five-man rotation. Four of those spots will go to Blake Snell, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Roki Sasaki. That fifth spot appears to be up for grabs, with the two leading candidates being a pair of arms that missed the 2024 season entirely due to injury: right-handers Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin.

The duo have been on very similar tracks for much of their respective careers. Drafted in the third and ninth rounds of the 2016 draft respectively, May and Gonsolin were both top-100 prospects for the Dodgers who made their big league debuts in 2019 and looked good in their brief cups of coffee. May posted a 3.63 ERA in 34 2/3 innings, while Gonsolin posted a 2.93 ERA in 40 innings. Both took on larger roles in 2020 and finished top-five in NL Rookie of the Year voting that year.

It was at the outset of the 2021 season where the pair’s careers begin to diverge. May has routinely been brilliant when healthy, but “when healthy” is a key caveat. May has started just 20 games and thrown 101 innings total over the past four seasons. That’s mostly been due to multiple elbow surgeries, and just when his arm looked to be healthy last summer, he suffered an esophageal tear that required surgery and sidelined him for 2024.

Gonsolin has been healthy long enough to build up a more sustained track record, but that playing time has come with ups and downs. In 2021, the righty posted a strong 3.23 ERA but a 4.54 FIP due in no small part to a bloated 14.2% walk rate. Gonsolin was sensational in 2022, logging a 2.14 ERA in 24 starts (130 1/3 innings) as he cut his walk rate by more than half and struck out a solid 23.9% of opponents faced. The success was short-lived. Gonsolin struggled badly across 20 starts in 2023 before undergoing his own Tommy John surgery, which wiped out his entire 2024 season.

May brings excellent rate stats to the table, with a 3.21 ERA (132 ERA+), a 3.59 FIP, and a 24.1% strikeout rate over that aforementioned stretch of 2020 starts between surgeries. He’s also just 27 years old. Between that youth and his limited on-field reps to this point in his career, it’s not outlandish to suggest that May could have a higher ceiling than even his strong career numbers suggest. Gonsolin has more experience pitching in big league games. The 31-year-old’s phenomenal 2022 season is also by far the best work either player has put forward in a given season. May has five-plus seasons of MLB service and can’t be optioned without his consent. Gonsolin will reach that same threshold 20 days into the season but for now has one minor league option left.

There are other candidates for the fifth spot, but none come close to matching the experience of May and Gonsolin. Bobby Miller is a former top prospect who delivered a strong 2023 season, but he was one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. Landon Knack, Ben Casparius, and Justin Wrobleski are all healthy and available as depth starters after each debuted in 2024. Of the three, only Knack has substantial big league playing time under his belt. The 27-year-old’s 3.65 ERA in 69 innings last year could make him the next man up behind May and Gonsolin, but he still appears to be further down the depth chart than the two returning righties.

It’s worth reminding that franchise legend Clayton Kershaw is slated to start the season on the 60-day IL. Younger arms like Emmet Sheehan, Kyle Hurt and River Ryan are all recovering from Tommy John surgery performed during the 2024 season. Gavin Stone had shoulder surgery in October and isn’t likely to pitch this year. Fellow righty Nick Frasso is a well-regarded arm but isn’t likely to be in the Opening Day rotation mix after missing the 2024 season due to shoulder surgery performed last offseason. That length list of arms is a testament to the organization’s depth and also a good reminder that whoever opens the season as the No. 5 starter is hardly a lock to hold a rotation spot all season. The Dodgers will probably cycle through 12-plus starters this season.

Be that as it may, there’s plenty of intrigue surrounding the Opening Day staff. Assuming everyone remains healthy, how do MLBTR readers think the Dodgers’ fifth starter battle will play out? Will the club go for May’s upside and relative youth? Will they instead turn to Gonsolin’s more substantial MLB track record in hopes he can replicate his All-Star 2022 campaign? Will one of the less-experienced arms break out and claim the role? Have your say in the poll below:

The Opener: Nationals, Extensions, MLBTR Chat

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As spring training continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Nationals 40-man move incoming:

The Nationals were reportedly nearing a deal with right-hander Lucas Sims earlier this week, and this morning MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman reports that Sims has a locker in the team’s clubhouse. Given that, it seems likely that the club will make Sims’ deal official at some point today. The Nationals will need to make room on the 40-man roster in order to bring Sims into the fold officially. Right-hander Mason Thompson is recovering from Tommy John surgery after undergoing the procedure last March, making him a potential candidate for the 60-day injured list, but it’s also possible he’ll be ready to return early enough in the season that the club doesn’t want to commit to shelving him for the first two months of the season.

2. Extension season underway:

The Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. did not reach an extension before Guerrero’s self-imposed deadline yesterday, which took perhaps the winter’s highest-profile extension target off of the table. That same day, the Diamondbacks finalized an extension with shortstop Geraldo Perdomo that extends the team’s window of club control by three seasons. Spring training is the most common time for players and clubs to discuss the possibility of a longer-term deal. Pending free agents like Guerrero, Kyle Tucker, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto have all seen their names surface in extension rumors. A team like the Red Sox could have extra motivation to try to lock up a trade acquisition (e.g. Garrett Crochet) after parting with significant prospect talent to acquire him. But, Perdomo’s extension serves as a reminder that many long-term deals for players still approaching or just entering arbitration come to fruition without virtually any buzz beforehand. As can be seen in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, there were 25 spring extensions hammered out from 2022-24: six in 2024, 11 in 2023 and another eight in 2022.

3. MLBTR Chat:

Spring training is now officially underway, though a handful of of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents remain unsigned and some clubs still have more work to do before the start of the season. Whether you have a trade proposal in the back of your mind or questions about an upcoming camp battle this spring, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be here to answer your questions during a live chat scheduled for 1pm CT. You can click here to ask a question in advance, join in live once the chat begins, or read the transcript once the chat is complete.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Expects To Reach Free Agency Without Extension

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Blue Jays position players reported to camp this morning for the club’s first full-squad workout of the spring, and superstar first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. set a deadline of today for extension talks with the club ahead of his final season under club control before free agency. That deadline has come and gone, and Guerrero told reporters (including Keegan Matheson of MLB.com) this morning that the sides did not reach a deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds that Guerrero does not intend to negotiate during the season and now expects to reach free agency, while Hazel Mae relays (Video Link) that Guerrero noted he “would not close the door” on signing if Toronto brass presented him with a “realistic” offer.

Guerrero, still just 25 until March 16, is one of the most accomplished young players in the league and is likely to enter free agency as the most sought-after player available. A four-time All-Star with a Gold Glove award at first base and two Silver Slugger awards under his belt, Guerrero is a .288/.363/.500 (137 wRC+) hitter for his career. That type of offensive talent will always be enticing to clubs in free agency, but what makes Guerrero stand out as a top-of-the-class hitter is his combination of youth and ceiling.

Few hitters in the game can accomplish what Guerrero has in his peak seasons; his 2021 campaign was second only to Shohei Ohtani in AL MVP voting as he hit .311/.401/.601 (166 wRC+). His 48 home runs were tied with Salvador Perez for the most in the majors that year, and his .401 on-base percentage led the American League while trailing only Juan Soto and Bryce Harper in the NL. Steps back offensively in 2022 and ’23 raised questions regarding whether that otherworldly performance might be a fluke, but Guerrero squashed those concerns by more or less repeating his 2021 heroics this past season. Guerrero slashed a sensational .323/.396/.544 (165 wRC+) in 159 games for the Jays this past year, hitting “just” 30 homers in the process but making up for that with a career-best 44 doubles and a 13.8% strikeout rate that was the lowest of his career. Just nine qualified MLB hitters struck out less often than Guerrero in 2024, and among that group only Jose Ramirez and his 39-homer campaign were able to top Guerrero’s .221 isolated slugging percentage.

Reaching free agency on the heels of his age-26 season should make Guerrero all the more attractive in free agency come November. Guerrero will hit the open market just one year older than Juan Soto was during his own free agency this past winter, and that young age was crucial for Soto in securing his record-shattering deal that figures to pay him $765MM over the next 15 years and could max out at more than $800MM. That massive payday came in spite of Soto being a limited defender in the outfield corners who does not provide substantial value on the basepaths. While Soto is arguably in a class all his own as a hitter, with his career 158 wRC+ nearly matching Guerrero’s peak seasons, his record payday is still great news for the Jays’ slugger as there’s arguably no better comparison for Soto in the league than Guerrero at his peak.

Given that, it’s easy to imagine the bidding for Guerrero’s services surpassing half of a billion dollars. That seems to be right around where Guerrero set the bar in extension talks with Toronto, as reports regarding his asking price have suggested he was looking for north of $450MM. As Passan notes, Guerrero answered with a simple “No” when asked if the Blue Jays had put forth an offer that was close to his price point, and given Guerrero said earlier this winter that Toronto’s offer to him prior to Soto’s deal with the Mets sat at $340MM it’s hard to argue with his assessment unless the club brought their offer significantly higher over the course of the offseason.

Given the gap between the Guerrero’s rumored demands and the offer he said the Blue Jays made, it’s hardly a shock that the sides did not work out a deal. That’s reflected in a poll of MLBTR readers last month, where just 19.49% of respondents believed Guerrero would sign long-term with the club before today’s self-imposed deadline. Even so, Guerrero made clear to reporters that he’d still like to be a Blue Jay for life even as he went on to note that Toronto will now have to compete with 29 other clubs for his services on the open market. On the other hand, he also noted (as relayed by Matheson) his desire to win a World Series championship with his next club. That desire to win could hurt the Blue Jays’ odds of keeping Guerrero, as they finished dead last in a crowded AL East division with a 74-88 record. They appear to be longshots for the postseason this year as well after the Yankees and Orioles augmented their already playoff-caliber clubs while the Red Sox put together a strong offseason that saw them add multiple star players in Garrett Crochet and Alex Bregman.

As for the front office’s perspective, club GM Ross Atkins spoke to reporters shortly after Guerrero did and expressed disappointment that a deal did not get done, as relayed by Matheson. Atkins went on to emphasize that the club “worked very hard” in their efforts to come together on a deal and added that the “motivation” on the organization’s part to keep their superstar in the fold is “still there.” Atkins refused to get into specifics regarding numbers and contract offers but described their offer to Guerrero as one that would’ve been record-setting for the Blue Jays and made Guerrero “one of the highest paid players” in baseball if signed (video link via Mae). Atkins also made clear that the club’s inability to get a deal done with Guerrero was not a matter of resources, though that’s hardly a surprise given their high-dollar bids for Ohtani and Soto the past two winters.

Going forward, the Blue Jays figure to continue trying to win during Guerrero’s final year of club control. They’ve long resisted the possibility of trade talks involving their star slugger and, after spending $166MM to add Yimi Garcia, Jeff Hoffman, Anthony Santander, and Max Scherzer in free agency this winter while adding another $96.5MM in trade by taking on the Andres Gimenez contract from the Guardians, it seems unlikely that they would change course now rather than push in for 2025 and hope they can convince Guerrero to return next offseason. It’s possible that they could revisit the possibility of dealing Guerrero at the trade deadline this summer if they’ve fallen completely out of the playoff picture by then, however, and if shopped Guerrero would be the most impactful rental moved at a trade deadline since Manny Machado in 2018.

Poll: Who Will Be The Cardinals’ Starting Catcher?

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The Cardinals attempted to kick off a youth movement this winter, letting veteran players like Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Gibson, and Andrew Kittredge depart in free agency while attempting to trade other veteran pieces under longer-term team control. Unfortunately for St. Louis, none of those trades came to pass: Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray both declined to waive their no-trade clauses, while Nolan Arenado expressed a willingness to waive his for certain clubs but no deal ultimately came together.

That’s left the club looking very similar to last year, but even with a largely identical roster there remain some areas where the club can stick to its initial plans. Contreras has been a catcher for his entire career, but entered 2025 working out at first base ahead of what’s expected to be a full-time move away from his duties behind the plate this year. With Contreras replacing Goldschmidt at first, that opens up the catcher position for a young player to step in and claim the starting catcher job as their own. The Cardinals have two candidates for that role: Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages.

Herrera, 24, has already spent parts of three seasons in the majors after several years as a well-regarded catching prospect. His cups of coffee in the majors during the 2022 and ’23 seasons were limited to just 24 games and 66 plate appearances, but he got a more robust look at the big league level this past year and made the most of the opportunity. In 259 trips to the plate across 72 games last year, Herrera hit a strong .301/.372/.428 (127 wRC+). He showed decent pop and speed with five homers and five stolen bases in roughly a third of a full season’s slate of at-bats and complemented that with a solid understanding of the strike zone, as shown through his 20.5% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate.

A massive .370 BABIP is unlikely to be repeated over a full season, but his solid 8.9% barrel rate and the aforementioned plate discipline numbers suggest Herrera has the bat to be a solid hitter in the majors, and perhaps even well above average for the catcher position. Herrera has been an average to below average defender behind the plate to this point in his MLB career, however, with a lackluster arm that he pairs with average framing and blocking numbers. For a Cardinals club that struggled to make the adjustment from defensive stalwart Yadier Molina to bat-first slugger Contreras behind the plate, it would hardly be a surprise if the club preferred a more robust defender.

Enter Pages. The 26-year-old made his MLB debut with the Cardinals last year and got nearly the same amount of playing time as Herrera did with 68 games and 218 plate appearances. While he was similarly below average to Herrera when it came to throwing out runners in 2024, his pop time to second base was in the 75th percentile of catchers last year according to Statcast, while Herrera’s was in just the 27th percentile. That suggests more room to grow when it comes to controlling the running game, and Pages also rates out as a better pitch framer than Herrera with identical blocking numbers.

Those stronger defensive numbers could make Pages an attractive option as a regular behind the plate to a Cardinals organization that has long appreciated the value of a strong glove, but his offensive numbers could hold him back. Pages pales in comparison to Herrera as a hitter, with a slash line of just .238/.281/.376 (83 wRC+) last season. While Pages showed impressive power with seven homers in just 218 trips to the plate, he also struck out at an elevated 26.6% clip while walking only 6% of the time. That home run total also might be misleading about his overall offensive skill set, as well. Even as Pages managed to send more balls over the fence than Herrera did in fewer plate appearances, his 4.8% barrel rate was dwarfed by Herrera’s aforementioned 8.9% barrel rate, indicating that it was actually Herrera who made the strongest contact more consistently last year.

Of course, it’s also possible that the Cardinals could choose not to commit to either youngster as a true starter behind the plate, instead operating on a timeshare that’s closer to 50-50. Stepping out of the traditional starter-and-backup setup behind the plate could afford both players the opportunity to assert themselves as regulars, allowing performance to more naturally dictate playing time over the course of the season and beyond. That might come at the expense of comfort for the club’s pitchers if who is behind the plate is frequently changing on a day-to-day basis, but one possible solution to that would be to have each catcher work with a certain group of starting pitchers in order to ease their defensive burden from a planning and game-calling perspective while also affording those starters some level of consistency regarding who their battery mate is.

How do MLBTR readers think the Cardinals will approach the catcher position this year? Will they prioritize Herrera’s higher ceiling and better bat, Pages’s stronger defensive reputation, or settle for a timeshare involving both youngsters? Have your say in the poll below:

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